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Butrovich MA, Reaves AC, Heyward J, Moore TJ, Alexander GC, Inker LA, Nolin TD. Inclusion of Participants with CKD and Other Kidney-Related Considerations during Clinical Drug Development: Landscape Analysis of Anticancer Agents Approved from 2015 to 2019. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 2023; 18:455-464. [PMID: 36723359 PMCID: PMC10103296 DOI: 10.2215/cjn.0000000000000105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The US Food and Drug Administration has prioritized efforts to expand availability of therapies, including anticancer agents, for patients with CKD. US Food and Drug Administration Guidance recommends inclusion of study participants with CKD in clinical trials, improving pharmacokinetic characterization in people with decreased GFR, and using contemporary GFR assessment methods during drug development. We performed a landscape analysis of anticancer agents approved from 2015 to 2019 to evaluate inclusion of study participants with CKD and GFR assessment methods used during drug development and subsequent translation to kidney-related safety and dosing data in product labeling. METHODS Oncology drugs approved from 2015 to 2019 and associated pivotal trials were identified. We evaluated inclusion of study participants with CKD in pivotal trials and pharmacokinetic analyses, investigated GFR assessment methods used for pivotal trial eligibility and renal pharmacokinetic analyses, and identified kidney-related adverse drug event and dosing information. RESULTS A total of 55 drugs and 74 pivotal trials were included. Of the pivotal trials, 95% contained kidney-related eligibility criteria, including 68% with GFR-based eligibility. The median lower limit of GFR required for inclusion was 45 ml/min or ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . Pharmacokinetic analyses were performed in CKD stages 4-5 and hemodialysis for only 29% and 6% of drugs, respectively. Estimated creatinine clearance was used in over 60% and 80% of pivotal trials and pharmacokinetic analyses, respectively. Reporting of kidney-related adverse drug events was highly variable. Product labeling for 49% of drugs contained no kidney dosing information. CONCLUSIONS Study participants with CKD continue to be excluded from anticancer drug development, and GFR estimation in pivotal trials and renal pharmacokinetic analyses remains imprecise and heterogeneous. Furthermore, kidney-related safety and dosing information is scarcely and inconsistently presented.
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Nopsopon T, Lassiter G, Chen ML, Alexander GC, Keet C, Hong H, Akenroye A. Comparative efficacy of tezepelumab to mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in eosinophilic asthma: A Bayesian network meta-analysis. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2023; 151:747-755. [PMID: 36538979 PMCID: PMC9992307 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaci.2022.11.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Revised: 11/05/2022] [Accepted: 11/29/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND It is unclear how the efficacy of tezepelumab, approved for the treatment of type 2 high and low asthma, compares to the efficacy of other biologics for type 2-high asthma. OBJECTIVES We sought to conduct an indirect comparison of tezepelumab to dupilumab, benralizumab, and mepolizumab in the treatment of eosinophilic asthma. METHODS The investigators conducted a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analyses. They identified randomized controlled trials indexed in PubMed, Embase, or Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) between January 1, 2000, and August 12, 2022. Outcomes included exacerbation rates, prebronchodilator FEV1, and the Asthma Control Questionnaire. RESULTS Ten randomized controlled trials (n = 9201) met eligibility. Tezepelumab (relative risk: 0.63; 95% credible interval [CI]: 0.46-0.86) was associated with significantly lower exacerbation rates than benralizumab and larger improvements in FEV1 compared to mepolizumab (mean difference [MD]: 66; 95% CI: -33 to 170) and benralizumab (MD: 62; 95% CI: -22 to 150), though the 95% CI crossed the null value of 0. Mepolizumab improved the Asthma Control Questionnaire score the most, but this improvement was not significantly different from that of tezepelumab (tezepelumab vs mepolizumab; MD: 0.14; 95% CI: -0.10 to 0.38). For efficacy by clinically important thresholds, tezepelumab, mepolizumab, and dupilumab achieved a >99% probability of reducing exacerbation rates by ≥50% compared to placebo, but benralizumab had only a 66% probability of doing so. Tezepelumab and dupilumab had a probability of 1.00 of improving prebronchodilator FEV1 by ≥100 mL above placebo. Compared to mepolizumab, dupilumab had >90% chance for improving FEV1 by ≥50 mL, but none of the differences between biologics exceeded 100 mL. CONCLUSIONS In individuals with eosinophilic asthma, tezepelumab and dupilumab were associated with greater improvements (although below clinical thresholds) in exacerbation rates and lung function than benralizumab or mepolizumab.
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DiStefano MJ, Markell JM, Doherty CC, Alexander GC, Anderson GF. Association Between Drug Characteristics and Manufacturer Spending on Direct-to-Consumer Advertising. JAMA 2023; 329:386-392. [PMID: 36749334 PMCID: PMC10408265 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.23968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Importance Some drugs are heavily marketed through direct-to-consumer advertising. Objective To identify drug characteristics associated with a greater share of promotional spending on advertising directly to consumers. Design, Setting, and Participants Exploratory cross-sectional analysis of drug characteristics and promotional spending for the 150 top-selling branded prescription drugs in the US in 2020 as identified from IQVIA National Sales Perspectives data. Promotional spending data were provided by IQVIA ChannelDynamics. Exposures Drug characteristics (total 2020 sales; total 2020 promotional spending; clinical benefit ratings; number of indications, off-label use; molecule type; nature of condition treated; administration type; generic availability; US Food and Drug Administration [FDA] approval year, World Health Organization anatomical therapeutic chemical classification; Medicare annual mean spending per beneficiary; percent sales attributable to the drug; market size; market competitiveness) assessed from health technology assessment agencies (France's Haute Autorité de Santé and Canada's Patented Medicine Prices Review Board) and drug data sources (Drugs@FDA, the FDA Purple Book, Lexicomp, Merative Marketscan Research Databases, and Medicare Spending by Drug data). Main Outcomes and Measures Proportion of total promotional spending allocated to direct-to-consumer-advertising for each drug. Results The 2020 median proportion of promotional spending allocated to direct-to-consumer advertising was 13.5% (IQR, 1.96%-36.6%); median promotional spending, $20.9 million (IQR, $2.72-$131 million); and median total sales, $1.51 billion (IQR, $0.97-$2.26 billion). Of the 150 best-selling drugs, 16 were missing data and key covariates; therefore, the primary study sample comprised 134 drugs. After adjustment for multiple drug characteristics, the mean proportion of total promotional spending allocated to direct-to-consumer advertising for the remaining 134 drugs was an absolute 14.3% (95% CI, 1.43%-27.2%; P = .03) higher for those with low added clinical benefit than for those with high added clinical benefit and an absolute 1.5% (95% CI, 0.44%-2.56%; P = .005) higher for each 10% increase in total sales. Conclusions and Relevance Among top-selling US drugs in 2020, a rating of lower added benefit and higher total drug sales were associated with a higher proportion of manufacturer total promotional spending allocated to direct-to-consumer advertising. Further research is needed to understand the implications of these findings.
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Kravchenko OV, Boyce RD, Gomez-Lumbreras A, Kocis PT, Villa Zapata L, Tan M, Leonard CE, Andersen KM, Mehta H, Alexander GC, Malone DC. Drug-drug interaction between dexamethasone and direct-acting oral anticoagulants: a nested case-control study in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). BMJ Open 2022; 12:e066846. [PMID: 36581417 PMCID: PMC9806069 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-066846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The goal of this work is to evaluate if there is an increase in the risk of thromboembolic events (TEEs) due to concomitant exposure to dexamethasone and apixaban or rivaroxaban. Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), as well as corticosteroid dexamethasone, are commonly used to treat individuals hospitalised with COVID-19. Dexamethasone induces cytochrome P450-3A4 enzyme that also metabolises DOACs apixaban and rivaroxaban. This raises a concern about possible interaction between dexamethasone and DOACs that may reduce the efficacy of the DOACs and result in an increased risk of TEE. DESIGN We used nested case-control study design. SETTING This study was conducted in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), the largest electronic health records repository for COVID-19 in the USA. PARTICIPANTS Study participants were adults over 18 years who were exposed to a DOAC for 10 or more consecutive days. Exposure to dexamethasone was at least 5 or more consecutive days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Our primary exposure variable was concomitant exposure to dexamethasone for 5 or more days after exposure to either rivaroxaban or apixaban for 5 or more consecutive days. We used McNemar's Χ2 test and adjusted logistic regression to evaluate association between concomitant use of dexamethasone with either apixaban or rivaroxaban. RESULTS McNemar's Χ2 test did not find a discernible association of TEE in patients concomitantly exposed to dexamethasone and a DOAC (χ2=0.5, df=1, p=0.48). In addition, a conditional logistic regression model did not find an increase in the risk of TEE (adjusted OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.32 to 4.18). CONCLUSION This nested case-control study did not find evidence of an association between concomitant exposure to dexamethasone and a DOAC with an increase in risk of TEE. Due to small sample size, an association cannot be completely ruled out.
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Wong PJ, Mosley SA, Ng TMH, Shooshtari A, Alexander GC, Qato DM. Changes in anticoagulant and antiplatelet drug supply at US hospitals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2018-2021). Am J Health Syst Pharm 2022; 80:692-698. [PMID: 36571281 DOI: 10.1093/ajhp/zxac381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
DISCLAIMER In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. PURPOSE Antithrombotic agents have a role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment, but the pandemic disrupted medication supply. This study examined changes in the volume of oral and parenteral anticoagulant and antiplatelet medications at US hospitals during the pandemic. METHODS IQVIA National Sales Perspective (NSP) data was used to determine the monthly volume of anticoagulants and antiplatelets purchased at US hospitals between January 2018 and February 2021. Mean monthly medication volumes, reported as extended units (EUs), and year-over-year changes in medication volume were determined. A single-group interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate changes in the rate of growth of monthly medication volumes before (January 2019-February 2020) and during (March 2020-February 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS Overall, there was a 43.4% decline in the total volume of anticoagulants and antiplatelets at US hospitals in March 2020, driven by a decrease in heparin volume. Mean monthly volumes decreased significantly (P < 0.05) for parenteral anticoagulants (-106,691,340 EU [95% CI, -200,033,910 to -13,348,780]), oral anticoagulants (-354,800 EU [95% CI, -612,180 to -97,420]), and parenteral antiplatelets (-391,880 EU [95% CI, -535,420 to -248,330]). During the pandemic, the monthly volume of oral anticoagulants, parenteral anticoagulants, and parenteral antiplatelets grew significantly more than in the prepandemic period. This growth was primarily seen in volumes of apixaban, argatroban, enoxaparin, heparin, eptifibatide, and tirofiban. Apixaban and heparin volumes continued a prepandemic uptrend, while argatroban and eptifibatide volumes reversed trend. CONCLUSION Rapid changes in anticoagulant and antiplatelet volume at US hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the need for institutional protocols to manage fluctuating medication volume demands.
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Mehta HB, An H, Ardeshirrouhanifard S, Raji MA, Alexander GC, Segal JB. Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Among Adults With Cancer and Atrial Fibrillation. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2022; 15:e008951. [PMID: 36453260 PMCID: PMC9772095 DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.122.008951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND While clinical guidelines recommend direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOAC) over warfarin to treat isolated nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, guidelines are silent regarding nonvalvular atrial fibrillation treatment among individuals with cancer, reflecting the paucity of evidence in this setting. We quantified relative risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding (primary outcomes), and all-cause and cardiovascular death (secondary outcomes) among older individuals with cancer and nonvalvular atrial fibrillation comparing DOACs and warfarin. METHODS This retrospective cohort study used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry and linked US Medicare data from 2010 through 2016, and included individuals diagnosed with cancer and nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who newly initiated DOAC or warfarin. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to control confounding. We used competing risk regression for primary outcomes and cardiovascular death, and Cox proportional hazard regression for all-cause death. RESULTS Among 7675 individuals included in the cohort, 4244 (55.3%) received DOACs and 3431 (44.7%) warfarin. In the inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis, there was no statistically significant difference among DOAC and warfarin users in the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (1.24 versus 1.19 events per 100 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 [95% CI, 0.92-2.14]), major bleeding (3.08 versus 4.49 events per 100 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio 0.90 [95% CI, 0.70-1.17]), and cardiovascular death (1.88 versus 3.14 per 100 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio 0.82 [95% CI, 0.59-0.1.13]). DOAC users had significantly lower risk of all-cause death (7.09 versus 13.3 per 100 person-years, adjusted hazard ratio 0.81 [95% CI, 0.69-0.94]) compared to warfarin users. CONCLUSIONS Older adults with cancer and atrial fibrillation exposed to DOACs had similar risks of stroke and systemic embolism and major bleeding as those exposed to warfarin. Relative to warfarin, DOAC use was associated with a similar risk of cardiovascular death and a lower risk of all-cause death.
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Lyu B, Sang Y, Selvin E, Chang AR, Alexander GC, Cohen CM, Coresh J, Shalev V, Chodick G, Karasik A, Carrero JJ, Fu EL, Xu Y, Grams ME, Shin JI. Pharmacologic Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S., Sweden, and Israel. Diabetes Care 2022; 45:2926-2934. [PMID: 36282149 PMCID: PMC9763031 DOI: 10.2337/dc22-1253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To characterize and compare glucose-lowering medication use in type 2 diabetes in the U.S., Sweden, and Israel, including adoption of newer medications and prescribing patterns. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from the U.S., the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project from Sweden, and Maccabi Healthcare Services (Maccabi) from Israel. Specific pharmacotherapy for type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2018 was examined. RESULTS Use of glucose-lowering medications among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially lower in NHANES and SCREAM than in Maccabi (66.0% in NHANES, 68.4% in SCREAM, and 88.1% in Maccabi in 2017-2018). Among patients who took at least one glucose-lowering medication in 2017-2018, metformin use was also lower in NHANES and SCREAM (74.1% in NHANES, 75.9% in SCREAM, and 92.6% in Maccabi) whereas sulfonylureas use was greater in NHANES (31.5% in NHANES, 16.0% in SCREAM, and 14.9% in Maccabi). Adoption of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) was slower in NHANES and SCREAM than in Maccabi. History of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, reduced kidney function, or albuminuria was not consistently associated with greater use of SGLT2i or glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) across the three countries. CONCLUSIONS There were substantial differences in real-world use of glucose-lowering medications across the U.S., Sweden, and Israel, with more optimal pharmacologic management in Israel. Variation in access to care and medication cost across countries may have contributed to these differences. SGLT2i and GLP1RA use in patients at high risk was limited in all three countries during this time period.
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Alexander GC, Mansour O. Distribution of Abatement Funds Arising From US Opioid Litigation. JAMA 2022; 328:1901-1902. [PMID: 36306147 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.19667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
This Viewpoint discusses the settlement agreements reached against several major pharmaceutical distributors resulting from the US opioid epidemic and how those funds will be distributed amongst the states.
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Akenroye A, Lassiter G, Jackson JW, Keet C, Segal J, Alexander GC, Hong H. Comparative efficacy of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in eosinophilic asthma: A Bayesian network meta-analysis. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2022; 150:1097-1105.e12. [PMID: 35772597 PMCID: PMC9643621 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaci.2022.05.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Revised: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The comparative safety and efficacy of the biologics currently approved for asthma are unclear. OBJECTIVE We compared the safety and efficacy of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in individuals with severe eosinophilic asthma. METHODS We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published 2000 to 2021. We studied Bayesian network meta-analyses of exacerbation rates, prebronchodilator FEV1, the Asthma Control Questionnaire, and serious adverse events in individuals with eosinophilic asthma. RESULTS Eight randomized clinical trials (n = 6461) were identified. We found in individuals with eosinophils ≥300 cells/μL the following: in reducing exacerbation rates compared to placebo: dupilumab (risk ratio [RR], 0.32; 95% credible interval [CI], 0.23 to 0.45), mepolizumab (RR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.45), and benralizumab (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.55); in improving FEV1: dupilumab (mean difference in milliliters [MD] 230; 95% CI, 160 to 300), benralizumab (MD, 150; 95% CI, 100 to 200), and mepolizumab (MD, 150; 95% CI, 66 to 220); and in reducing Asthma Control Questionnaire scores: mepolizumab (MD, -0.63; 95% CI, -0.81 to -0.45), dupilumab (MD, -0.48; 95% CI, -0.83 to -0.14), and benralizumab (MD, -0.32; 95% CI, -0.43 to -0.21). In individuals with eosinophils 150-299 cells/μL, benralizumab (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.73) and dupilumab (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.95) were associated with lower exacerbation rates; and only benralizumab (MD, 81; 95% CI, 8 to 150) significantly improved FEV1. These differences were minimal compared to clinically important thresholds. For serious adverse events in the overall population, mepolizumab (odds ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.92) and benralizumab (odds ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.93) were associated with lower odds of a serious adverse event, while dupilumab was not different from placebo (odds ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.4). CONCLUSION There are minimal differences in the efficacy and safety of mepolizumab, benralizumab, and dupilumab in eosinophilic asthma.
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Mehta HB, Li S, An H, Goodwin JS, Alexander GC, Segal JB. Development and Validation of the Summary Elixhauser Comorbidity Score for Use With ICD-10-CM-Coded Data Among Older Adults. Ann Intern Med 2022; 175:1423-1430. [PMID: 36095314 PMCID: PMC9894164 DOI: 10.7326/m21-4204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Older adults have many comorbidities contributing to mortality. OBJECTIVE To develop a summary Elixhauser (S-Elixhauser) comorbidity score to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality in older adults using the 38 comorbidities operationalized by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Medicare beneficiaries from 2017 to 2019. PATIENTS Persons hospitalized in 2018 (n = 899 844) and 3 disease-specific hospitalized cohorts. MEASUREMENTS Weights were derived for 38 comorbidities to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality. The S-Elixhauser score was internally validated and calibrated. Individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators (38 comorbidities), the modified application of the AHRQ-derived Elixhauser summary score, the Charlson comorbidity indicators (17 comorbidities), and the Charlson summary score were externally validated. The c-statistic was used to evaluate discrimination of a comorbidity score model. RESULTS The S-Elixhauser score was well calibrated and internally validated, with a c-statistic of 0.705 (95% CI, 0.703 to 0.707) in predicting 30-day mortality, 0.654 (CI, 0.651 to 0.657) for in-hospital mortality, and 0.743 (CI, 0.741 to 0.744) for 1-year mortality. In external validation of other comorbidity indices for 30-day mortality, the c-statistic was 0.711 (CI, 0.709 to 0.713) for the individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators, 0.688 (CI, 0.686 to 0.690) for the AHRQ Elixhauser score, 0.696 (CI, 0.694 to 0.698) for the Charlson comorbidity indicators, and 0.690 (CI, 0.688 to 0.693) for the Charlson summary score. In 3 disease-specific populations, the discrimination of the S-Elixhauser score in predicting 30-day mortality ranged from 0.657 to 0.732. LIMITATION Validation of the S-Elixhauser comorbidity score and head-to-head comparison with other comorbidity scores in an external population are needed to evaluate comparative performance. CONCLUSION The S-Elixhauser comorbidity score is well calibrated and internally validated but its advantage over the AHRQ Elixhauser and Charlson summary scores is unclear. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE National Institute on Aging.
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Caleb Alexander G, Mix LA, Choudhury S, Taketa R, Tomori C, Mooghali M, Fan A, Mars S, Ciccarone D, Patton M, Apollonio DE, Schmidt L, Steinman MA, Greene J, Ling PM, Seymour AK, Glantz S, Tasker K. The Opioid Industry Documents Archive: A Living Digital Repository. Am J Public Health 2022; 112:1126-1129. [PMID: 35830677 PMCID: PMC9342819 DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2022.306951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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Anderson KE, Alexander GC, Ma C, Dy SM, Sen AP. Medicare Advantage coverage restrictions for the costliest physician-administered drugs. THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MANAGED CARE 2022; 28:e255-e262. [PMID: 35852888 DOI: 10.37765/ajmc.2022.89184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To examine the use of step therapy, prior authorization, and Part D formulary exclusion by 4 large Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers to manage 20 physician-administered drugs with the highest total Medicare expenditures (top 20 drugs). STUDY DESIGN We collected data for United Healthcare, CVS/Aetna, Humana, and Kaiser plans to create a database of 2020 Part B coverage restrictions and conducted a retrospective analysis of 2018-2020 Part D formularies. METHODS For each insurer, we calculated the number of top 20 physician-administered drugs subject to prior authorization and step therapy. For physician-administered drugs for which there were no similar or interchangeable alternatives, we examined which insurers required prior authorization or step therapy. Finally, we examined whether insurers restricted access to physician-administered drugs by reducing coverage on Part D formularies. RESULTS Of the top 20 physician-administered drugs, 17 were subject to prior authorization and 10 were subject to step therapy by at least 1 insurer. For 5 physician-administered drugs without a similar or interchangeable alternative, none were subject to step therapy and all were subject to prior authorization by at least 1 insurer. Across the 4 insurers, 16 physician-administered drugs were covered on all or some of the Part D formularies in 2018, which decreased to 6 in 2020. CONCLUSIONS Four large MA insurers managed access to expensive physician-administered drugs with a combination of prior authorization, step therapy, and Part D formulary design. When a low-cost alternative exists, these tools can help reduce wasteful spending, but the administrative barriers may also reduce access.
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Andersen KM, Joseph CS, Mehta HB, Streiff MB, Betz JF, Bollinger RC, Fisher AM, Gupta A, LeMaistre CF, Robinson ML, Xu Y, Ng DK, Alexander GC, Garibaldi BT. Thromboprophylaxis in people hospitalized with COVID-19: Assessing intermediate or standard doses in a retrospective cohort study. Res Pract Thromb Haemost 2022; 6:e12753. [PMID: 35859579 PMCID: PMC9287673 DOI: 10.1002/rth2.12753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2022] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Objectives Current clinical guidelines recommend thromboprophylaxis for adults hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), yet it is unknown whether higher doses of thromboprophylaxis offer benefits beyond standard doses. Methods We studied electronic health records from 50 091 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States between February 2020 and February 2021. We compared standard (enoxaparin 30 or 40 mg/day, fondaparinux 2.5 mg, or heparin 5000 units twice or thrice per day) versus intermediate (enoxaparin 30 or 40 mg twice daily, or up to 1.2 mg/kg of body weight daily, heparin 7500 units thrice per day or heparin 10 000 units twice or thrice per day) thromboprophylaxis. We separately examined risk of escalation to therapeutic anticoagulation, severe disease (first occurrence of high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation), and death. To summarize risk, we present hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using adjusted time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results People whose first dose was high intensity were younger, more often obese, and had greater oxygen support requirements. Intermediate dose thromboprophylaxis was associated with increased risk of therapeutic anticoagulation (HR, 3.39; 95% CI, 3.22-3.57), severe disease (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.17-1.28), and death (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.55). Increased risks associated with intermediate-dose thromboprophylaxis persisted in subgroup and sensitivity analyses varying populations and definitions of exposures, outcomes, and covariates. Conclusions Our findings do not support routine use of intermediate-dose thromboprophylaxis to prevent clinical worsening, severe disease, or death among adults hospitalized with COVID-19.
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Moore TJ, Alami A, Alexander GC, Mattison DR. Safety and effectiveness of
NMDA
receptor antagonists for depression: A multidisciplinary review. Pharmacotherapy 2022; 42:567-579. [PMID: 35665948 PMCID: PMC9540857 DOI: 10.1002/phar.2707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Ketamine, an anesthetic available since 1970, and esketamine, its newer S‐enantiomer, provide a novel approach for the treatment of depression and other psychiatric disorders. At subanesthetic doses, the two drugs, along with their older congener, phencyclidine (PCP), induce a transient, altered mental state by blocking the N‐methyl‐D‐aspartate (NMDA) receptor for glutamate, the primary excitatory neurotransmitter in the mammalian central nervous system. This multidisciplinary review examines the pharmacology/direct effects on consciousness, effectiveness in depression and acute suicidality, and safety of these fast‐acting NMDA antagonists. To capture the essence of 60 years of peer‐reviewed literature, we used a semi‐structured approach to the subtopics, each of which required a different search strategy. We review the evidence for the three primary reported benefits of the two clinical drugs when used for depression: success in difficult‐to‐treat patients, rapid onset of action within a day, and immediate effects on suicidality. Key safety issues include the evidence—and lack thereof—for the effects of repeatedly inducing this altered mental state, and whether an adequate safety margin exists to rule out the neurotoxic effects seen in animal studies. This review includes evidence from multiple sources that raise substantial questions about both safety and effectiveness of ketamine and esketamine for psychiatric disorders.
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DiStefano MJ, Alexander GC, Polsky D, Anderson GF. Cover. J Am Geriatr Soc 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/jgs.16594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Ozenberger K, Alexander GC, Shin J, Whitsel EA, Qato DM. Use of Prescription Medications With Cardiovascular Adverse Effects Among Older Adults in the United States. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf 2022; 31:1027-1038. [PMID: 35569118 PMCID: PMC9545984 DOI: 10.1002/pds.5477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 05/01/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
Background Many commonly used prescription medications have cardiovascular adverse effects, yet the cumulative risk of cardiovascular events associated with the concurrent use of these medications is unknown. We examined the association between the concurrent use of prescription medications with known risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) (“MACE medications”) and the risk of such events among older adults. Methods A multi‐center, population‐based study from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study of a cohort of 3669 community‐dwelling adults aged 61–86 years with no history of cardiovascular disease who reported the use of at least one medication between September 2006 and August 2013 were followed up until August 2015. Exposure defined as time‐varying and time‐fixed use of 1, 2 or ≥3 MACE medications with non‐MACE medications serving as negative control. Primary outcome was incident MACE defined as coronary artery revascularization, myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiac arrest, or death. Results In fully adjusted models, there was an increased risk of MACE associated with use of 1, 2, or ≥3 MACE medications (1 MACE: hazards ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94–1.57); 2 MACE: HR 1.89, CI 1.42–2.53; ≥3 MACE: HR 2.22, CI 1.61–3.07) compared to use of non‐MACE medications. These associations persisted in propensity score‐matched analyses and among new users of MACE medications, never users of cardiovascular medications and subgroups of participants with increased risk of MACE. There was no association between the number of non‐MACE medications used and MACE. Conclusions and Relevance In this community‐based cohort of older adults with no prior cardiovascular disease, the use of MACE medications was independently and consistently associated with an increased risk of such events in a dose–response fashion.
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Adhikari R, Jha K, Dardari Z, Heyward J, Blumenthal RS, Eckel RH, Alexander GC, Blaha MJ. National Trends in Use of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists by Cardiologists and Other Specialties, 2015 to 2020. J Am Heart Assoc 2022; 11:e023811. [PMID: 35475341 PMCID: PMC9238581 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.121.023811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Background Sodium‐glucose cotransporter‐2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon‐like peptide‐1 receptor agonists (GLP‐1RAs) mitigate cardiovascular risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes, but most eligible patients do not receive them. We characterized temporal trends in SGLT2i and GLP‐1RA use by cardiologists compared with other groups of clinicians. Methods and Results We conducted a descriptive analysis of serial, cross‐sectional data derived from IQVIA’s National Prescription Audit, a comprehensive audit capturing ≈90% of US retail prescription dispensing and projected to population‐level data, to estimate monthly SGLT2is and GLP‐1RAs dispensed from January 2015 to December 2020, stratified by prescriber specialty and molecule. We also used the American Medical Association’s Physician Masterfile to calculate average annual SGLT2is and GLP‐1RAs dispensed per physician. Between January 2015 and December 2020, a total of 63.2 million SGLT2i and 63.4 million GLP‐1RA prescriptions were dispensed in the United States. Monthly prescriptions from cardiologists increased 12‐fold for SGLT2is (from 2228 to 25 815) and 4‐fold for GLP‐1RAs (from 1927 to 6981). Nonetheless, cardiologists represented only 1.5% of SGLT2i prescriptions and 0.4% of GLP‐1RA prescriptions in 2020, while total use was predominated by primary care physicians/internists (57% of 2020 SGLT2is and 52% of GLP‐1RAs). Endocrinologists led in terms of prescriptions dispensed per physician in 2020 (272 SGLT2is and 405 GLP‐1RAs). Cardiologists, but not noncardiologists, increasingly used SGLT2is over GLP‐1RAs, with accelerated uptake of empagliflozin and dapagliflozin coinciding with their landmark cardiovascular outcomes trials and subsequent US Food and Drug Administration label expansions. Conclusions While use of SGLT2is and GLP‐1RAs by cardiologists in the United States increased substantially over a 6‐year period, cardiologists still account for a very small proportion of all use, contributing to marked undertreatment of individuals with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk.
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Bauchner H, Alexander GC. Rejection of Aducanumab (Aduhelm) by the Health Care Community: Lessons Learned and the Path Ahead. Med Care 2022; 60:392-393. [PMID: 35319522 DOI: 10.1097/mlr.0000000000001716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Wang L, Hong H, Alexander GC, Brawley OW, Paller CJ, Ballreich J. Cost-Effectiveness of Systemic Treatments for Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer: An Economic Evaluation Based on Network Meta-Analysis. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2022; 25:796-802. [PMID: 35500949 PMCID: PMC9844549 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2021.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2021] [Revised: 10/03/2021] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the cost-effectiveness of systemic treatments for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer from the US healthcare sector perspective with a lifetime horizon. METHODS We built a partitioned survival model based on a network meta-analysis of 7 clinical trials with 7287 patients aged 36 to 94 years between 2004 and 2018 to predict patient health trajectories by treatment. We tested parameter uncertainties with probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We estimated drug acquisition costs using the Federal Supply Schedule and adopted generic drug prices when available. We measured cost-effectiveness by an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS The mean costs were approximately $392 000 with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) alone and approximately $415 000, $464 000, $597 000, and $959 000 with docetaxel, abiraterone acetate, enzalutamide, and apalutamide, added to ADT, respectively. The mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 3.38 with ADT alone and 3.92, 4.76, 3.92, and 5.01 with docetaxel, abiraterone acetate, enzalutamide, and apalutamide, added to ADT, respectively. As add-on therapy to ADT, docetaxel had an ICER of $42 069 per QALY over ADT alone; abiraterone acetate had an ICER of $58 814 per QALY over docetaxel; apalutamide had an ICER of $1 979 676 per QALY over abiraterone acetate; enzalutamide was dominated. At a willingness to pay below $50 000 per QALY, docetaxel plus ADT is likely the most cost-effective treatment; at any willingness to pay between $50 000 and $200 000 per QALY, abiraterone acetate plus ADT is likely the most cost-effective treatment. CONCLUSIONS These findings underscore the value of abiraterone acetate plus ADT given its relative cost-effectiveness to other systemic treatments for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer.
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Ardeshirrouhanifard S, An H, Goyal RK, Raji MA, Segal JB, Alexander GC, Mehta HB. Use of oral anticoagulants among individuals with cancer and atrial fibrillation in the United States, 2010-2016. Pharmacotherapy 2022; 42:375-386. [PMID: 35364622 PMCID: PMC9302858 DOI: 10.1002/phar.2679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 03/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Background Anticoagulation among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation is challenging due to elevated risk of bleeding and stroke. We characterized use of oral anticoagulants among patients with cancer and non‐valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Methods We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare data and included patients with cancer aged ≥66 years with an incident diagnosis of NVAF from 2010 to 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazard model and multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with anticoagulant use versus no use and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin use, respectively. Results Of 27,702 patients with cancer and NVAF, 4469 (16.1%) used DOACs and 3577 (12.9%) used warfarin. Among 8046 anticoagulant users, DOACs use increased from 21.8% in 2011 to 76.2% in 2016, with a corresponding decline in warfarin use from 78.2% to 23.8%. Nearly 7 out of 10 patients with cancer and NVAF did not initiate anticoagulation in 2016. Anticoagulant use was more likely among those with higher CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–1.90 for score ≥6 vs. 1) or with lower HAS‐BLED scores (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.67–2.30 for score 1 vs. ≥6). Among anticoagulant users, DOAC use was less likely than warfarin in those with higher CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores (odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% CI 0.33–0.84 for score ≥6 vs. 1). Conclusions Nearly 7 out of 10 patients with cancer and NVAF did not receive anticoagulation. Use of DOACs increased from 2010 to 2016, with a corresponding decline in warfarin use. DOACs are used less than warfarin among those at higher risk of stroke.
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McGinty EE, Bicket MC, Seewald NJ, Stuart EA, Alexander GC, Barry CL, McCourt AD, Rutkow L. Effects of State Opioid Prescribing Laws on Use of Opioid and Other Pain Treatments Among Commercially Insured U.S. Adults. Ann Intern Med 2022; 175:617-627. [PMID: 35286141 PMCID: PMC9277518 DOI: 10.7326/m21-4363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is concern that state laws to curb opioid prescribing may adversely affect patients with chronic noncancer pain, but the laws' effects are unclear because of challenges in disentangling multiple laws implemented around the same time. OBJECTIVE To study the association between state opioid prescribing cap laws, pill mill laws, and mandatory prescription drug monitoring program query or enrollment laws and trends in opioid and guideline-concordant nonopioid pain treatment among commercially insured adults, including a subgroup with chronic noncancer pain conditions. DESIGN Thirteen treatment states that implemented a single law of interest in a 4-year period and unique groups of control states for each treatment state were identified. Augmented synthetic control analyses were used to estimate the association between each state law and outcomes. SETTING United States, 2008 to 2019. PATIENTS 7 694 514 commercially insured adults aged 18 years or older, including 1 976 355 diagnosed with arthritis, low back pain, headache, fibromyalgia, and/or neuropathic pain. MEASUREMENTS Proportion of patients receiving any opioid prescription or guideline-concordant nonopioid pain treatment per month, and mean days' supply and morphine milligram equivalents (MME) of prescribed opioids per day, per patient, per month. RESULTS Laws were associated with small-in-magnitude and non-statistically significant changes in outcomes, although CIs around some estimates were wide. For adults overall and those with chronic noncancer pain, the 13 state laws were each associated with a change of less than 1 percentage point in the proportion of patients receiving any opioid prescription and a change of less than 2 percentage points in the proportion receiving any guideline-concordant nonopioid treatment, per month. The laws were associated with a change of less than 1 in days' supply of opioid prescriptions and a change of less than 4 in average monthly MME per day per patient prescribed opioids. LIMITATIONS Results may not be generalizable to non-commercially insured populations and were imprecise for some estimates. Use of claims data precluded assessment of the clinical appropriateness of pain treatments. CONCLUSION This study did not identify changes in opioid prescribing or nonopioid pain treatment attributable to state laws. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE National Institute on Drug Abuse.
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Lin DH, Murimi-Worstell IB, Kan H, Tierce JC, Wang X, Nab H, Desta B, Hammond ER, Alexander GC. Health care utilization and costs of systemic lupus erythematosus in the United States: A systematic review. Lupus 2022; 31:773-807. [PMID: 35467448 DOI: 10.1177/09612033221088209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate health care utilization and costs for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) by disease severity. METHODS We searched PubMed and Embase from January 2000 to June 2020 for observational studies examining health care utilization and costs associated with SLE among adults in the United States. Two independent reviewers reviewed the selected full-text articles to determine the final set of included studies. Costs were converted to 2020 US $. RESULTS We screened 9224 articles, of which 51 were included. Mean emergency department visits were 0.3-3.5 per year, and mean hospitalizations were 0.1-2.4 per year (mean length of stay 0.4-13.0 days). Patients averaged 10-26 physician visits/year. Mean annual direct total costs were $17,258-$63,022 per patient and were greater for patients with moderate or severe disease ($19,099-$82,391) compared with mild disease ($12,242-$29,233). Mean annual direct costs were larger from commercial claims ($24,585-$63,022) than public payers (Medicare and Medicaid: $18,302-$27,142). CONCLUSIONS SLE remains a significant driver of health care utilization and costs. Patients with moderate to severe SLE use more health care services and incur greater direct and indirect costs than those with mild disease.
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Whitehouse P, Gandy S, Saini V, George DR, Larson EB, Alexander GC, Avorn J, Brownlee S, Camp C, Chertkow H, Fugh-Berman A, Howard R, Kesselheim A, Langa K, Perry G, Richard E, Schneider L. Making the Case for Accelerated Withdrawal of Aducanumab. J Alzheimers Dis 2022; 87:1003-1007. [DOI: 10.3233/jad-220262] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023]
Abstract
The controversial approval in June 2021 by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of aducanumab (marketed as Aduhelm), Biogen’s monoclonal antibody for patients with Alzheimer’s disease, raises significant concerns for the dementia field and drug approval process, considering its lack of adequate evidence for clinical efficacy, safety issues, and cost. On 15 December 2021, an international group of clinicians, basic science experts, psychological and social science researchers, lay people with lived experience of dementia, and advocates for public health met to discuss making a recommendation for whether aducanumab’s approval should be withdrawn. Attendees considered arguments both in favor of and in opposition to withdrawal and voted unanimously to recommend that the FDA withdraw its approval for aducanumab and to support the Right Care Alliance’s filing of a formal Citizen Petition to this effect.
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Alexander GC, Ballreich J, Mansour O, Dowdy DW. Effect of reductions in opioid prescribing on opioid use disorder and fatal overdose in the United States: a dynamic Markov model. Addiction 2022; 117:969-976. [PMID: 34590369 DOI: 10.1111/add.15698] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Despite prescribing declines between 2011 and 2019, opioid morbidity and mortality in the United States continued to rise during this period. We estimated the relationship between opioid prescribing, opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdose in the United States. DESIGN Dynamic Markov model. SETTING United States, using data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III. PARTICIPANTS Simulated US individuals 12+ years of age from the general population or with prescription opioid medical use, prescription opioid non-medical use, illicit opioid (e.g. heroin, illicit fentanyl) use, prescription OUD, illicit OUD with a history of prior prescription opioid non-medical use or non-fatal or fatal opioid overdose. MEASUREMENTS Active OUD cases and fatal prescription opioid overdoses. FINDINGS Between 2010 and 2019, opioid prescribing declined 42.5%. Although fatal opioid overdoses increased by 103.2%, these reductions in opioid prescribing averted an estimated 9600 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 7205, 15 478] deaths starting in 2011 relative to continued prescribing at 2010 levels-and are projected to avert another 50 918 (95% UI = 38 829, 79 795) overdose deaths between 2020 and 2029. The median time from initial opioid prescription to fatal opioid overdose was 5.2 years. Of the 2.4 million (95% UI = 2.2 million, 2.7 million) individuals in the United States with estimated active OUD in 2019, 65% (95% UI = 59%, 71%) were attributable to initial opioid use occurring prior to 2011, whereas 14% (95% UI = 12%, 17%) were attributable to initial opioid use occurring between 2017 and 2019. The impact, by 2029, of additional reductions in prescribing initiated in 2020 would be more than three times greater than that of similar reductions initiated in 2025. CONCLUSIONS Observed reductions in opioid prescribing volume in the United States from 2010 to 2019 appear to have saved approximately 9600 lives by 2019 and are anticipated to avert more than 50 000 fatal overdoses by 2029.
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DiStefano MJ, Alexander GC, Anderson GF. Reply to: The informed majority could help make research into Alzheimer's disease fairer and more efficient. J Am Geriatr Soc 2022; 70:1883-1885. [PMID: 35343584 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.17757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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