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Fakhim H, Nasri E, Aboutalebian S, Gholipour S, Nikaeen M, Vaezi A, Mousavi S, Faramarzi S, Farhang A, Javanmard SH, Salahi M, Darakhshandeh A, Ahmadikia K, Mirhendi H. Asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus disease 2019 among healthcare workers in Isfahan, Iran. Future Virol 2021. [PMCID: PMC7842138 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2020-0224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Aim: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Isfahan, Iran. Materials & methods: HCWs in COVID-19 wards of three referral COVID-19 hospitals in Isfahan were screened and tested for COVID-19 infection. Results: In total, 102 HCWs were screened whose median age was 43 years old. Moreover, 21 (20.5%) of them had a history of suspected infection with SARS-CoV2, mostly (66.6%) without any symptoms while six (28.5%) of them suffered from relatively mild diseases and one (4.7%) was diagnosed with pulmonary embolism. Conclusion: It was found that HCWs were prone to be asymptomatic carriers while their computed tomography images were normal. Therefore, it is recommended that reverse-transcriptase real-time-PCR be essential for the diagnosis of infections.
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Nasri E, Shoaei P, Vakili B, Mirhendi H, Sadeghi S, Hajiahmadi S, Sadeghi A, Vaezi A, Badali H, Fakhim H. Fatal Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis in COVID-19 Patient with Acute Myeloid Leukemia in Iran. Mycopathologia 2020; 185:1077-1084. [PMID: 33009966 PMCID: PMC7532731 DOI: 10.1007/s11046-020-00493-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2020] [Accepted: 09/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Although patients with severe immunodeficiency and hematological malignancies has been considered at highest risk for invasive fungal infection, patients with severe pneumonia due to influenza, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) are also at a higher risk of developing invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). Recently, reports of IPA have also emerged among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Here, we report a fatal case of probable IPA in an acute myeloid leukemia patient co-infected with SARS-CoV-2 and complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Probable IPA is supported by multiple pulmonary nodules with ground glass opacities which indicate halo sign and positive serum galactomannan results. Screening studies are needed to evaluate the prevalence of IPA in immunocompromised patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Consequently, testing for the presence of Aspergillus in lower respiratory secretions and galactomannan in consecutive serum samples of COVID-19 patients with timely and targeted antifungal therapy based on early clinical suspicion of IPA are highly recommended.
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Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Ilkit M, Faeli L, Fakhar M, Alinejad V, Wiederhold NP, Badali H. Rapid and Low-Cost Culture-Based Method for Diagnosis of Mucormycosis Using a Mouse Model. Front Microbiol 2020; 11:440. [PMID: 32265876 PMCID: PMC7099612 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2020.00440] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2019] [Accepted: 03/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Prompt and targeted antifungal treatment has a positive impact on the clinical outcome of mucormycosis; however, current diagnostic tools used in histopathology laboratories often fail to provide rapid results. Rapid culture-based strategies for early diagnosis of Mucorales infections, which may influence treatment decisions, are urgently needed. Herein, we evaluated a microculture assay for the early diagnosis of mucormycosis in an immunocompetent murine model of disseminated infection, by comparing it with traditional diagnostic methods. The assay specificity was assessed using blood (n = 90) and tissue (n = 90) specimens obtained from mice infected with Rhizopus arrhizus using different inoculum sizes [1 × 104, 1 × 105, and 1 × 106 colony forming units (CFUs)/mouse] and blood (n = 15) and tissue specimens (n = 15) from uninfected mice. Surprisingly, 26 of 90 (28.9%) blood samples revealed positive results by microculture, whereas all blood samples were negative when assayed by conventional culture. The overall positive conventional culture rate for the mouse tissue (kidney) samples was 31.1% (28/90). The calculated sensitivity for kidney microculture was 98.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 96.6–100], with an assay specificity of 100%. Hence, the microculture assay may be useful for rapid culturing and diagnosis of mucormycosis caused by R. arrhizus directly in blood and tissue samples. Hence, this method may allow for the timely administration of an appropriate treatment.
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Ahangarkani F, Khodavaisy S, Mahmoudi S, Shokohi T, Rezai MS, Fakhim H, Dannaoui E, Faraji S, Chowdhary A, Meis JF, Badali H. Indifferent effect of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) combined with fluconazole against multidrug-resistant Candida auris. Curr Med Mycol 2019; 5:26-30. [PMID: 31850393 PMCID: PMC6910706 DOI: 10.18502/cmm.5.3.1743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Purpose: Emergence and development of antifungal drug resistance in Candida species constitute a serious concern. Candida auris as an emerging multidrug-resistant fungus is the most important public health threat with high levels of mortality and morbidity. Almost all C. auris isolates are resistant to fluconazole, and there have been reports of elevated minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) to amphotericin B and echinocandins. To overcome the growing challenge of antifungal resistance, a valuable alternative option would be the use of drug combination. Materials and Methods: The present study evaluated the in vitro combination of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), such as ibuprofen, diclofenac and aspirin with fluconazole against fluconazole-resistant C. auris in comparison to other fluconazole-resistant Candida species, including C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis, C. tropicalis, and C. krusei originating from patients with candidiasis. Results: The MIC ranges of fluconazole-ibuprofen and fluconazole-diclofenac decreased from 32-256 to 32-128 and 16-256 µg/ml, respectively and remained the same for fluconazole-aspirin against C. auris. However, the combination of fluconazole with ibuprofen resulted in a synergistic effect for 5 strains, including C. albicans (n=2), C. tropicalis (n=1), C. glabrata (n=1), and C. krusei (n=1), by decreasing the MIC of fluconazole by 2-3 log2 dilutions. Conclusion: Although the interaction of NSAIDs with fluconazole was not synergistic against fluconazole-resistant C. auris isolates, no antagonism was observed for any combinations. Therefore, combination with newer azole agents needs to be conducted.
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Nasri E, Fakhim H, Barac A, Yousefi S, Aghazade K, Boljevic D, Mardani M. Nocardia farcinica meningitis in a patient with high-grade astrocytoma. J Infect Dev Ctries 2019; 13:854-857. [PMID: 32074098 DOI: 10.3855/jidc.11582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2019] [Accepted: 06/04/2019] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
Abstract
We describe a case of 91-year-old male with astrocytoma who developed meningitis caused by Nocardia farcinica. He had a past medical history of anaplastic astrocytoma grade III. Endocranial computed tomography (CT) scan revealed mass lesion in the left occipital region associated with perilesional edema, without evidence of midline shift issue. The analyses of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) revealed neutrophilic pleocytosis, hyperproteinorrachia and hypoglycorrhachia. Combined antimicrobial therapy was initiated (vancomycin, meropenem, acyclovir). CSF culture revealed Nocardia farcinica. Susceptibility testing revealed intermediate sensitivity to meropenem and antibiotic treatment was switched to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and imipenem. After 7 days of treatment the patient developed progressive dyspnea. The chest CT scan revealed bilateral pleural effusion and alveolar infiltrate mostly in the right lobe. Ceftriaxone was added to the therapy, but the outcome was lethal. Nocardia spp. should be considered as differential diagnosis in the patients with brain tumor or meningitis in the setting of immune suppression and corticosteroid use. CSF cultures should be incubated longer with aim to allow fastidious organisms to grow, such as Nocardia spp.
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Mahmoudi Y, Badali H, Hashemi SM, Ansari M, Fakhim H, Fallah M, Shokrzadeh M, Emami S. New potent antifungal triazole alcohols containing N-benzylpiperazine carbodithioate moiety: Synthesis, in vitro evaluation and in silico study. Bioorg Chem 2019; 90:103060. [PMID: 31229796 DOI: 10.1016/j.bioorg.2019.103060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2018] [Revised: 05/26/2019] [Accepted: 06/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
A number of 1H-1,2,4-triazole alcohols containing N-(halobenzyl)piperazine carbodithioate moiety have been designed and synthesized as potent antifungal agents. In vitro bioassays against different Candida species including C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis, C. krusei, and C. tropicalis revealed that the N-(4-chlorobenzyl) derivative (6b) with MIC values of 0.063-0.5 µg/mL had the best profile of activity, being 4-32 times more potent than fluconazole. Docking simulation studies confirmed the better fitting of compound 6b in the active site of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) enzyme, the main target of azole antifungals. Particularly, the potential of compound 6b against fluconazole-resistant isolates along with its minimal toxicity against human erythrocytes and HepG2 cells make this prototype compound as a good lead for discovery of potent and safe antifungal agents.
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Badali H, Al-Hatmi AMS, Fakhim H, Moghaddasi A, Khodavaisy S, Vaezi A, Ahangarkani F, de Hoog GS, Meis JF. In vitro activity of nine antifungal agents against a global collection of Hortaea werneckii isolates, the agent of tinea nigra. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2019; 54:95-98. [PMID: 31071468 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2019.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2019] [Revised: 04/06/2019] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
The in vitro susceptibility of molecularly identified Hortaea werneckii isolates (n = 37), the causative agent of tinea nigra, originating from clinical and environmental sources was determined for nine antifungal agents. Posaconazole had the lowest geometric mean minimum inhibitory concentration (GM MIC) (0.07 µg/mL), followed by voriconazole (0.13 µg/mL), isavuconazole (0.14 µg/mL), itraconazole (0.16 µg/mL), terbinafine (0.19 µg/mL) and amphotericin B (0.92 µg/mL). In contrast, fluconazole (14.56 µg/mL), caspofungin (2.41 µg/mL) and anidulafungin (1.42 µg/mL) demonstrated the highest GM MICs/MECs against H. werneckii.
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Nasri E, Fakhim H, Vaezi A, Khalilzadeh S, Ahangarkani F, Laal Kargar M, Abtahian Z, Badali H. Airway colonisation by Candida and Aspergillus species in Iranian cystic fibrosis patients. Mycoses 2019; 62:434-440. [PMID: 30681747 DOI: 10.1111/myc.12898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2018] [Revised: 01/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/22/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Cystic fibrosis (CF) is associated with increased rates of morbidity and mortality due to fungal and bacterial colonisation of the airways or respiratory infections. The prevalence of fungi in Iranian CF population has been underestimated. Therefore, the current study was conducted to define the frequency of fungi in respiratory specimens obtained from Iranian CF patients based on conventional and molecular assays. Furthermore, in vitro antifungal susceptibility testing was performed on the obtained isolates according to the guidelines from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute. A cohort of 42 CF patients, including 29 males and 13 females, were categorised according to the referenced diagnostic criteria. Candida albicans (n = 24, 80%), C. dubliniensis (n = 2, 6.6%), C. parapsilosis (n = 2, 6.6%), C. tropicalis (n = 1, 3.3%), C. glabrata (n = 1, 3.3%) and Meyerozyma caribbica (n = 1, 3.3%) were isolated from 73.8% of the CF patients. Aspergillus terreus (n = 3, 42.8%) was identified as the most common Aspergillus species, followed by A. fumigatus (n = 2, 28.5%), A. oryzae (n = 1, 14.2%) and A. flavus (n = 1, 14.2%). Bacterial and fungal co-colonisation was detected in 7 (16.6%) and 22 (52.3%) samples that were positive for Aspergillus and Candida species, respectively. However, Scedosporium species and Exophiala dermatitidis never were detected. In terms of geometric mean (GM) minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs), posaconazole (0.018 μg/mL) and caspofungin (0.083 μg/mL) exhibited the highest antifungal activities against all Candida species. In addition, posaconazole exhibited the lowest MIC range (0.008-0.063 μg/mL) against all Aspergillus species, followed by caspofungin (0.016-0.125 μg/mL) and voriconazole (0.125-0.25 μg/mL). To conclude, it is essential to adopt a consistent method for the implementation of primary diagnosis and determination of treatment regimen for the CF patients. However, further studies are still needed to better define the epidemiology of fungal organisms in CF patients from the Middle East and the clinical significance of their isolation.
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Zunt JR, Kassebaum NJ, Blake N, Glennie L, Wright C, Nichols E, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Adamu AA, Adib MG, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alene KA, Aljunid SM, AlMazroa MA, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Badali H, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bassat Q, Bedi N, Belachew AB, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Butt ZA, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Dang AK, Daryani A, Demoz GT, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, El Sayed Zaki M, Elyazar IRF, Fakhim H, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebremeskel A, Gessner BD, Gopalani SV, Guo Y, Gupta R, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hay SI, Henok A, Irvani SSN, Jha RP, JÜRISSON M, Kahsay A, Karami M, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TDD, Kefale AT, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Lami FH, Levi M, Li S, Loy CT, Majdan M, Majeed A, Mantovani LG, Martins-Melo FR, Mcalinden C, Mehta V, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Milosevic B, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moraga P, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Murthy S, Mustafa G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naik G, Newton CRJ, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olusanya BO, Ortiz JR, Owolabi MO, Patel S, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Postma MJ, Qorbani M, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Reiner RC, Renzaho AM, Rezai MS, Roba KT, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Safari H, Safari S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Sharif M, Shigematsu M, Si S, Skiadaresi E, Smith M, Somayaji R, Sufiyan MB, Tawye NY, Temsah MH, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Weldegwergs KG, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wiyeh AB, Wyper GM, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Zaidi Z, Zenebe ZM, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2018; 17:1061-1082. [PMID: 30507391 PMCID: PMC6234314 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(18)30387-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 195] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2018] [Revised: 09/24/2018] [Accepted: 10/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. FINDINGS Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19-2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46-3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06-1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04-1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20-28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. INTERPRETATION Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vaezi A, Badali H, Fakhim H, Nasri E, Hedayat Yaghoobi M. A Review of Esophagitis Due to Candida Species in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Infected Patients. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENTERIC PATHOGENS 2018. [DOI: 10.15171/ijep.2018.23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, 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Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho 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Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, 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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Shushtari Z, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kanchan T, Kant S, Kar C, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan G, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khazaei M, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lachat C, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Larson SL, Latifi A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Machado ÍE, Madotto F, Mai HT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martin RV, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Meier T, Mekonnen FA, Melaku YA, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, 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C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1923-1994. [PMID: 30496105 PMCID: PMC6227755 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2618] [Impact Index Per Article: 436.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. FINDINGS In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. INTERPRETATION By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe Z, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adib MG, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alouani MML, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arabloo J, Arauz A, Aremu O, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, 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Esteghamati S, Fakhim H, Fallah Omrani V, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fox J, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gall S, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Ghosh R, Ghoshal AG, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Ginawi IA, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grams ME, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hagos TB, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, 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Werdecker A, West TE, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wijeratne T, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woolf AD, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang K, Zhao Z, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1789-1858. [PMID: 30496104 PMCID: PMC6227754 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7#] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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R, Mabika CM, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Mahmood TAE, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mangalam S, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehrzadi S, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik P, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen LH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nomura S, Noroozi M, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Shiadeh MN, Nowroozi MR, Nyandwi A, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Otieno BA, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MM, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Pierce M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Polanczyk GV, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MS, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Reiner RC, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Saroshe S, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Starodubov VI, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Strong M, Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Abtahian Z, Khodavaisy S, Geramishoar M, Alizadeh A, Meis JF, Badali H. Frequency and Geographic Distribution of CARD9 Mutations in Patients With Severe Fungal Infections. Front Microbiol 2018; 9:2434. [PMID: 30369919 PMCID: PMC6195074 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2018.02434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2018] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Autosomal recessive deficiency in the caspase recruitment domain containing protein 9 (CARD9) results in susceptibility to fungal infections. In the last decade, infections associated with CARD9 deficiency are more reported due to the advent of genome sequencing. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency, geographic distribution and nature of mutations in patients with CARD9 deficiency. We identified 60 patients with 24 mutations and different fungal infections. The presence of the homozygous (HMZ) p.Q295X (c.883C > T) and HMZ p.Q289X (c.865C > T) mutations were associated with an elevated risk of candidiasis (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.18–2.15; p = 0.004) and dermatophytosis (OR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.47–2.37; p < 0.001), respectively. The geographical distribution differed, showing that the main mutations in African patients were different Asian patients; HMZ p.Q289X (c.865C > T) and HMZ p.Q295X (c.865C > T) accounted for 75% and 37.9% of the African and Asian cases, respectively. The spectrum of CARD9 mutations in Asian patients was higher than in African. Asia is the most populous continent in the world and may have a greater genetic burden resulting in more patients with severe fungal infections. The presence of a high diversity of mutations revealing 24 distinct variations among 60 patients emphasize that the unique genetic alteration in CARD9 gene may be associated with certain geographical areas.
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Pakshir K, Fakhim H, Vaezi A, Meis JF, Mahmoodi M, Zomorodian K, Javidnia J, Ansari S, Hagen F, Badali H. Molecular epidemiology of environmental Cryptococcus species isolates based on amplified fragment length polymorphism. J Mycol Med 2018; 28:599-605. [PMID: 30322827 DOI: 10.1016/j.mycmed.2018.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2018] [Revised: 09/15/2018] [Accepted: 09/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Cryptococcosis is a major opportunistic fungal infection caused by members of the genus Cryptococcus, mainly those belonging to the Cryptococcus neoformans/Cryptococcus gattii species complexes. Here, we report a comprehensive molecular epidemiological study of the environmental distribution of Cryptococcus isolates in Shiraz, Iran with review of litreature. METHOD A total of 406 samples were obtained from Eucalyptus trees and 139 samples from pigeon droppings. Cryptococcus species identification and genotyping were performed by amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting sequencing and sequencing of the ITS rDNA region. RESULTS Majority of the isolates belonged to the Naganishia taxon (n=69) including N. albida (formerly C. albidus, n=62), N. globosa (formerly C. saitoi, n=4), N. adeliensis (formerly C. adeliensis, n=2), N. diffluens (formerly C. diffluens, n=1), and the identified C. neoformans isolates (n=25) belonged to genotype AFLP1/VNI (n=22) and AFLP1B/VNII (n=3). CONCLUSION More research efforts should be employed to isolate C. gattii species complex from environmental niches in Iran and provide additional evidence related to novel molecular types.
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Fakhim H, Vaezi A, Dannaoui E, Chowdhary A, Nasiry D, Faeli L, Meis JF, Badali H. Comparative virulence of Candida auris with Candida haemulonii, Candida glabrata and Candida albicans in a murine model. Mycoses 2018; 61:377-382. [PMID: 29460345 DOI: 10.1111/myc.12754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2018] [Revised: 02/02/2018] [Accepted: 02/03/2018] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
The incidence of invasive fungal infections (IFIs) caused by uncommon Candida species with diverse virulence and susceptibility profiles has increased in recent years. Due to scarce clinical and experimental data on the pathogenicity of Candida auris, the aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the virulence of two rare clinically relevant species, C. auris and Candida haemulonii with Candida glabrata and Candida albicans in an immunocompetent murine model of disseminated infection. Immunocompetent ICR female mice were infected with three inoculum sizes (1 × 105 , 1 × 106 and 1 × 107 CFU/mouse) of two C. auris strains and one isolate of C. haemulonii, C. glabrata and C. albicans. Tissue burden on days 5 and 10 postchallenge and mortality rate were used as virulence markers. A high virulence was found for C. albicans, followed by C. auris, C. glabrata and C. haemulonii, respectively. Candida albicans showed high virulence with a medium survival time of 9.5 days for mice infected with 1 × 107 CFU/mouse. For inocula at 1 × 106 and 1 × 107 CFU/mouse, there were significant differences in fungal burden at day 10 between C. albicans, C. auris and C. glabrata isolates compared with C. haemulonii (P < .0001). Overall, no significant differences between C. albicans with C. auris and C. glabrata were observed in mice infected with three different inocula (P > .05). In general, the highest fungal load of all isolates was detected in kidney followed by spleen, liver and lung tested with three different inocula on the two different experimental days. Histopathological examination revealed the abundant presence of yeast cells with pseudohyphae for C. albicans and only yeast cells for C. auris, C. glabrata and C. haemulonii, in all the kidney tissue samples. In conclusion, C. albicans is a highly virulent opportunistic fungus, as the clinical and experimental data demonstrate, and also our results demonstrate a low virulence of C. haemulonii in immunocompetent animals. Altogether, this study highlights the pathogenic potential of C. auris.
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Fakhim H, Vaezi A, Dannaoui E, Sharma C, Mousavi B, Chowdhary A, Meis JF, Badali H. In vitro combination of voriconazole with micafungin against azole-resistant clinical isolates of Aspergillus fumigatus from different geographical regions. Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis 2018; 91:266-268. [PMID: 29622284 DOI: 10.1016/j.diagmicrobio.2018.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2017] [Revised: 02/19/2018] [Accepted: 03/03/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
In vitro interaction of voriconazole with micafungin was evaluated against 33 clinical Aspergillus fumigatus isolates, including azole-resistant (n=31) and -susceptible (n=2) isolates. Interaction was synergistic for only 1 resistant isolate carrying the TR34/L98H mutation. No antagonistic effects were observed for 96.8% of azole-resistant isolates.
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Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Javidnia J, Khodavaisy S, Abtahian Z, Vojoodi M, Nourbakhsh F, Badali H. Pesticide behavior in paddy fields and development of azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus : Should we be concerned? J Mycol Med 2018; 28:59-64. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mycmed.2017.12.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2017] [Revised: 12/04/2017] [Accepted: 12/15/2017] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Falahatinejad M, Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Abastabar M, Shokohi T, Zahedi N, Ansari S, Meis JF, Badali H. Use of cell surface protein typing for genotyping of azole-resistant and -susceptible Aspergillus fumigatus isolates in Iran. Mycoses 2017; 61:143-147. [PMID: 29064130 DOI: 10.1111/myc.12717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2017] [Revised: 09/29/2017] [Accepted: 10/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Aspergillus fumigatus is the leading cause of mortality in severely immunocompromised individuals. Understanding pathogen dispersion and relatedness is essential for determining the epidemiology of nosocomial infections. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the diversity and putative origins of clinical and environmental azole-susceptible and -resistant A. fumigatus isolates from Iran. In all, 79 isolates, including 64 azole-susceptible and 15 -resistant isolates, were genotyped using the cell surface protein (CSP) gene. Seven distinct repeat types (r01, r02, r03, r04, r05, r06 and r07) and 11 different CSP variants (t01, t02, t03, t04A, t06A, t06B, t08, t10, t18A, t18B and t22) were observed. Interestingly, t06B, t18A and t18B were exclusively present in azole-resistant isolates. The Simpson's index of diversity (D) was calculated at 0.78. Resistant isolates were genetically less diverse than azole-susceptible isolates. However, azole-resistant A. fumigatus without TR34 /L98H were more diverse than with TR34 /L98H. The limited CSP type diversity of the TR34 /L98H isolates versus azole-susceptible isolates suggests that repeated independent emergence of the TR34 /L98H mechanism is unlikely. It has been suggested that CSP types might have a common ancestor that developed locally and subsequently migrated worldwide.
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Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Arastehfar A, Shokohi T, Hedayati MT, Khodavaisy S, Rezaei-Matehkolaei A, Badiee P, Hagen F, Lass-Flörl C, Dannaoui E, Meis JF, Badali H. In vitro antifungal activity of amphotericin B and 11 comparators against Aspergillus terreus species complex. Mycoses 2017; 61:134-142. [PMID: 29064123 DOI: 10.1111/myc.12716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2017] [Revised: 09/23/2017] [Accepted: 10/11/2017] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Aspergillus terreus infections are difficult to treat because of the intrinsic resistance to amphotericin B, and higher mortality compared to infections caused by other Aspergillus species. The aim of the present study was to determine the in vitro antifungal activity of amphotericin B and 11 comparators against clinical (n = 36) and environmental (n = 45) A. terreus isolates. In vitro antifungal susceptibility was performed using the CLSI M38-A2 procedure. Amphotericin B exhibited the highest MICs (MIC range, 0.125-4 μg/mL; MIC90 , 2 μg/mL), followed by terbinafine (MIC range, 0.002-1 μg/mL; MIC90 , 1 μg/mL). Only one isolate (1/81) showed amphotericin B MIC above the epidemiologic cut-off value (ECV; 4 μg/mL). None of the isolates had a MIC of ≥ ECV for voriconazole, itraconazole and posaconazole. The reasons for the difference in amphotericin B susceptibility patterns between studies remain unknown. The genetic and species diversity, clinical, environmental and ecological factors in Terrei section on various amphotericin B susceptibility profiles in different countries should be considered more as the main reasons associated with these differences.
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Hagen F, Lumbsch HT, Arsic Arsenijevic V, Badali H, Bertout S, Billmyre RB, Bragulat MR, Cabañes FJ, Carbia M, Chakrabarti A, Chaturvedi S, Chaturvedi V, Chen M, Chowdhary A, Colom MF, Cornely OA, Crous PW, Cuétara MS, Diaz MR, Espinel-Ingroff A, Fakhim H, Falk R, Fang W, Herkert PF, Ferrer Rodríguez C, Fraser JA, Gené J, Guarro J, Idnurm A, Illnait-Zaragozi MT, Khan Z, Khayhan K, Kolecka A, Kurtzman CP, Lagrou K, Liao W, Linares C, Meis JF, Nielsen K, Nyazika TK, Pan W, Pekmezovic M, Polacheck I, Posteraro B, de Queiroz Telles F, Romeo O, Sánchez M, Sampaio A, Sanguinetti M, Sriburee P, Sugita T, Taj-Aldeen SJ, Takashima M, Taylor JW, Theelen B, Tomazin R, Verweij PE, Wahyuningsih R, Wang P, Boekhout T. Importance of Resolving Fungal Nomenclature: the Case of Multiple Pathogenic Species in the Cryptococcus Genus. mSphere 2017; 2:e00238-17. [PMID: 28875175 PMCID: PMC5577652 DOI: 10.1128/msphere.00238-17] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Cryptococcosis is a major fungal disease caused by members of the Cryptococcus gattii and Cryptococcus neoformans species complexes. After more than 15 years of molecular genetic and phenotypic studies and much debate, a proposal for a taxonomic revision was made. The two varieties within C. neoformans were raised to species level, and the same was done for five genotypes within C. gattii. In a recent perspective (K. J. Kwon-Chung et al., mSphere 2:e00357-16, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00357-16), it was argued that this taxonomic proposal was premature and without consensus in the community. Although the authors of the perspective recognized the existence of genetic diversity, they preferred the use of the informal nomenclature "C. neoformans species complex" and "C. gattii species complex." Here we highlight the advantage of recognizing these seven species, as ignoring these species will impede deciphering further biologically and clinically relevant differences between them, which may in turn delay future clinical advances.
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Vaezi A, Fakhim H, Khodavaisy S, Alizadeh A, Nazeri M, Soleimani A, Boekhout T, Badali H. Epidemiological and mycological characteristics of candidemia in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis. J Mycol Med 2017; 27:146-152. [PMID: 28318900 DOI: 10.1016/j.mycmed.2017.02.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2017] [Revised: 01/30/2017] [Accepted: 02/17/2017] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
To date, there has been no comprehensive review of the epidemiology, risk factors, species distribution, and outcomes of candidemia in Iran. This study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of all reported candidemia cases in Iran until December 2015. The review process occurred in three steps, namely a literature search, data extraction and statistical analyses. After a comprehensive literature search, we identified 55 cases. The mean age of patients was 46.80±24.30 years (range 1-81 years). The main risk factors for candidemia were surgery and burns (23.6%), followed by malignancies (20%), use of broad-spectrum antibiotics (18.2%), and diabetes (7.3%). Candida parapsilosis (n=17, 30.8%) was the leading agent, followed by Candida albicans (n=15, 27.3%), Candida glabrata (n=10, 18.2%), and Candida tropicalis (n=8, 14.5%). The frequencies of candidemia cases due to C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis, and C. albicans were significantly higher among patients aged>60, 21-40, and 41-60 years, respectively. Comparison of risk factors for candidemia by multiple logistic regression showed that one of the most important risk factors was surgery (OR: 4.245; 95% CI: 1.141-15.789; P=0.031). The outcome was recorded in only 19 cases and 13 of those patients (68.4%) expired. This study confirms that knowledge of the local epidemiology is important when conducting surveillance studies to prevent and control candidemia and will be of interest for antifungal stewardship.
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