Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

Energetically relevant predator-prey body mass ratios and their relationship with predator body size

Food web structure and dynamics depend on relationships between body sizes of predators and their prey. Species-based and community-wide estimates of preferred and realized predator-prey mass ratios (PPMR) are required inputs to size-based size spectrum models of marine communities, food webs, and ecosystems. Here, we clarify differences between PPMR definitions in different size spectrum models, in particular differences between PPMR measurements weighting prey abundance in individual predators by biomass (r bio) and numbers (r num). We argue that the former weighting generates PPMR as usually conceptualized in equilibrium (static) size spectrum models while the latter usually applies to dynamic models. We use diet information from 170,689 individuals of 34 species of fish in Alaskan marine ecosystems to calculate both PPMR metrics. Using hierarchical models, we examine how explained variance in these metrics changed with predator body size, predator taxonomic resolution, and spatial resolution. In the hierarchical analysis, variance in both metrics emerged primarily at the species level and substantially less variance was associated with other (higher) taxonomic levels or with spatial resolution. This suggests that changes in species composition are the main drivers of community-wide mean PPMR. At all levels of analysis, relationships between weighted mean r bio or weighted mean r num and predator mass tended to be dome-shaped. Weighted mean r num values, for species and community-wide, were approximately an order of magnitude higher than weighted mean r bio, reflecting the consistent numeric dominance of small prey in predator diets. As well as increasing understanding of the drivers of variation in PPMR and providing estimates of PPMR in the north Pacific Ocean, our results demonstrate that that r bio or r num, as well as their corresponding weighted means for any defined group of predators, are not directly substitutable. When developing equilibrium size-based models based on bulk energy flux or comparing PPMR estimates derived from the relationship between body mass and trophic level with those based on diet analysis, weighted mean r bio is a more appropriate measure of PPMR. When calibrating preference PPMR in dynamic size spectrum models then weighted mean r num will be a more appropriate measure of PPMR.

Scaling marine fish movement behavior from individuals to populations

Understanding how, where, and when animals move is a central problem in marine ecology and conservation. Key to improving our knowledge about what drives animal movement is the rising deployment of telemetry devices on a range of free-roaming species. An increasingly popular way of gaining meaningful inference from an animal's recorded movements is the application of hidden Markov models (HMMs), which allow for the identification of latent behavioral states in the movement paths of individuals. However, the use of HMMs to explore the population-level consequences of movement is often limited by model complexity and insufficient sample sizes. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to current practices and provide evidence of how the inclusion of prior information in model structure can simplify the application of HMMs to multiple animal movement paths with two clear benefits: (a) consistent state allocation and (b) increases in effective sample size. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we apply HMMs and adapted HMMs to over 100 multivariate movement paths consisting of conditionally dependent daily horizontal and vertical movements in two species of demersal fish: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua; n = 46) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa; n = 61). We identify latent states corresponding to two main underlying behaviors: resident and migrating. As our analysis considers a relatively large sample size and states are allocated consistently, we use collective model output to investigate state-dependent spatiotemporal trends at the individual and population levels. In particular, we show how both species shift their movement behaviors on a seasonal basis and demonstrate population space use patterns that are consistent with previous individual-level studies. Tagging studies are increasingly being used to inform stock assessment models, spatial management strategies, and monitoring of marine fish populations. Our approach provides a promising way of adding value to tagging studies because inferences about movement behavior can be gained from a larger proportion of datasets, making tagging studies more relevant to management and more cost-effective.

Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.

Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata

Accurate information on the growth rates of fish is crucial for fisheries stock assessment and management. Empirical life history parameters (von Bertalanffy growth) are widely fitted to cross-sectional size-at-age data sampled from fish populations. This method often assumes that environmental factors affecting growth remain constant over time. The current study utilized longitudinal life history information contained in otoliths from 412 juveniles and adults of gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, a commercially important species fished and farmed throughout the Mediterranean. Historical annual growth rates over 11 consecutive years (2002-2012) in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) were reconstructed to investigate the effect of temperature variations on the annual growth of this fish. S. aurata growth was modelled linearly as the relationship between otolith size at year t against otolith size at the previous year t-1. The effect of temperature on growth was modelled with linear mixed effects models and a simplified linear model to be implemented in a cohort Integral Projection Model (cIPM). The cIPM was used to project S. aurata growth, year to year, under different temperature scenarios. Our results determined current increasing summer temperatures to have a negative effect on S. aurata annual growth in the Gulf of Lions. They suggest that global warming already has and will further have a significant impact on S. aurata size-at-age, with important implications for age-structured stock assessments and reference points used in fisheries.

Considering land-sea interactions and trade-offs for food and biodiversity

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per-capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever-growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross-sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade-offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land-sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter-productive trade-offs resulting from land-sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross-sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.

Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture

Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Assessing National Biodiversity Trends for Rocky and Coral Reefs through the Integration of Citizen Science and Scientific Monitoring Programs

Reporting progress against targets for international biodiversity agreements is hindered by a shortage of suitable biodiversity data. We describe a cost-effective system involving Reef Life Survey citizen scientists in the systematic collection of quantitative data covering multiple phyla that can underpin numerous marine biodiversity indicators at high spatial and temporal resolution. We then summarize the findings of a continental- and decadal-scale State of the Environment assessment for rocky and coral reefs based on indicators of ecosystem state relating to fishing, ocean warming, and invasive species and describing the distribution of threatened species. Fishing impacts are widespread, whereas substantial warming-related change affected some regions between 2005 and 2015. Invasive species are concentrated near harbors in southeastern Australia, and the threatened-species index is highest for the Great Australian Bight and Tasman Sea. Our approach can be applied globally to improve reporting against biodiversity targets and enhance public and policymakers' understanding of marine biodiversity trends.

Functional, size and taxonomic diversity of fish along a depth gradient in the deep sea

Biodiversity is well studied in ecology and the concept has been developed to include traits of species, rather than solely taxonomy, to better reflect the functional diversity of a system. The deep sea provides a natural environmental gradient within which to study changes in different diversity metrics, but traits of deep-sea fish are not widely known, hampering the application of functional diversity to this globally important system. We used morphological traits to determine the functional richness and functional divergence of demersal fish assemblages along the continental slope in the Northeast Atlantic, at depths of 300-2,000 m. We compared these metrics to size diversity based on individual body size and species richness. Functional richness and size diversity showed similar patterns, with the highest diversity at intermediate depths; functional divergence showed the opposite pattern, with the highest values at the shallowest and deepest parts of the study site. Species richness increased with depth. The functional implications of these patterns were deduced by examining depth-related changes in morphological traits and the dominance of feeding guilds as illustrated by stable isotope analyses. The patterns in diversity and the variation in certain morphological traits can potentially be explained by changes in the relative dominance of pelagic and benthic feeding guilds. All measures of diversity examined here suggest that the deep areas of the continental slope may be equally or more diverse than assemblages just beyond the continental shelf.

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input - NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980-2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

Predicting the consequences of species loss using size-structured biodiversity approaches

Understanding the consequences of species loss in complex ecological communities is one of the great challenges in current biodiversity research. For a long time, this topic has been addressed by traditional biodiversity experiments. Most of these approaches treat species as trait-free, taxonomic units characterizing communities only by species number without accounting for species traits. However, extinctions do not occur at random as there is a clear correlation between extinction risk and species traits. In this review, we assume that large species will be most threatened by extinction and use novel allometric and size-spectrum concepts that include body mass as a primary species trait at the levels of populations and individuals, respectively, to re-assess three classic debates on the relationships between biodiversity and (i) food-web structural complexity, (ii) community dynamic stability, and (iii) ecosystem functioning. Contrasting current expectations, size-structured approaches suggest that the loss of large species, that typically exploit most resource species, may lead to future food webs that are less interwoven and more structured by chains of interactions and compartments. The disruption of natural body-mass distributions maintaining food-web stability may trigger avalanches of secondary extinctions and strong trophic cascades with expected knock-on effects on the functionality of the ecosystems. Therefore, we argue that it is crucial to take into account body size as a species trait when analysing the consequences of biodiversity loss for natural ecosystems. Applying size-structured approaches provides an integrative ecological concept that enables a better understanding of each species' unique role across communities and the causes and consequences of biodiversity loss.

A trait-based metric sheds new light on the nature of the body size-depth relationship in the deep sea

Variation within species is an often-overlooked aspect of community ecology, despite the fact that the ontogenetic structure of populations influences processes right up to the ecosystem level. Accounting for traits at the individual level is an important advance in the implementation of trait-based approaches in understanding community structure and function. We incorporate individual- and species-level traits into one succinct assemblage structure metric, fractional size, which is calculated as the length of an individual divided by its potential maximum length. We test the implementation of fractional size in demersal fish assemblages along a depth gradient in the deep sea. We use data from an extensive trawl survey at depths of 300-2030 m on the continental slope of the Rockall Trough, Northeast Atlantic, to compare changes in fractional size structure along an environmental gradient to those seen using traditional taxonomic and trait-based approaches. The relationship between fractional size and depth was particularly strong, with the overall pattern being an increase with depth, implying that individuals move deeper as they grow. Body size increased with depth at the intraspecific and assemblage levels. Fractional size, size structure and species composition all varied among assemblages, and this variation could be explained by the depth that the assemblage occupied. The inclusion of individual-level traits and population fractional size structure adds to our understanding at the assemblage level. Fractional size, or where an individual is in its growth trajectory, appears to be an especially important driver of assemblage change with depth. This has implications for understanding fisheries impacts in the deep sea and how these impacts may propagate across depths.

Fishing for space: fine-scale multi-sector maritime activities influence fisher location choice

The European Union and other states are moving towards Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management to balance food production and security with wider ecosystem concerns. Fishing is only one of several sectors operating within the ocean environment, competing for renewable and non-renewable resources that overlap in a limited space. Other sectors include marine mining, energy generation, recreation, transport and conservation. Trade-offs of these competing sectors are already part of the process but attempts to detail how the seas are being utilised have been primarily based on compilations of data on human activity at large spatial scales. Advances including satellite and shipping automatic tracking enable investigation of factors influencing fishers' choice of fishing grounds at spatial scales relevant to decision-making, including the presence or avoidance of activities by other sectors. We analyse the determinants of English and Welsh scallop-dredging fleet behaviour, including competing sectors, operating in the eastern English Channel. Results indicate aggregate mining activity, maritime traffic, increased fishing costs, and the English inshore 6 and French 12 nautical mile limits negatively impact fishers' likelihood of fishing in otherwise suitable areas. Past success, net-benefits and fishing within the 12 NM predispose fishers to use areas. Systematic conservation planning has yet to be widely applied in marine systems, and the dynamics of spatial overlap of fishing with other activities have not been studied at scales relevant to fisher decision-making. This study demonstrates fisher decision-making is indeed affected by the real-time presence of other sectors in an area, and therefore trade-offs which need to be accounted for in marine planning. As marine resource extraction demands intensify, governments will need to take a more proactive approach to resolving these trade-offs, and studies such as this will be required as the evidential foundation for future seascape planning.

mizer: an R package for multispecies, trait-based and community size spectrum ecological modelling

Size spectrum ecological models are representations of a community of individuals which grow and change trophic level. A key emergent feature of these models is the size spectrum; the total abundance of all individuals that scales negatively with size. The models we focus on are designed to capture fish community dynamics useful for assessing the community impacts of fishing.We present mizer, an R package for implementing dynamic size spectrum ecological models of an entire aquatic community subject to fishing. Multiple fishing gears can be defined and fishing mortality can change through time making it possible to simulate a range of exploitation strategies and management options.mizer implements three versions of the size spectrum modelling framework: the community model, where individuals are only characterized by their size; the trait-based model, where individuals are further characterized by their asymptotic size; and the multispecies model where additional trait differences are resolved.A range of plot, community indicator and summary methods are available to inspect the results of the simulations.