Lifetime risk of common neurological diseases in the elderly population

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework.

METHODS

Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we studied lifetime risk of dementia, stroke and parkinsonism between 1990 and 2016. Among 12 102 individuals (57.7% women) aged ≥45 years free from these diseases at baseline, we studied co-occurrence, and quantified the combined, and disease-specific remaining lifetime risk of these diseases at various ages for men and women separately. We also projected effects on lifetime risk of hypothetical preventive strategies that delay disease onset by 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively.

RESULTS

During follow-up of up to 26 years (156 088 person-years of follow-up), 1489 individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 1285 with stroke and 263 with parkinsonism. Of these individuals, 438 (14.6%) were diagnosed with multiple diseases. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be diagnosed with both stroke and dementia during their lifetime. The lifetime risk for any of these diseases at age 45 was 48.2% (95% CI 47.1% to 51.5%) in women and 36.2% (35.1% to 39.3%) in men. This difference was driven by a higher risk of dementia as the first manifesting disease in women than in men (25.9% vs 13.7%; p<0.001), while this was similar for stroke (19.0%vs18.9% in men) and parkinsonism (3.3% vs 3.6% in men). Preventive strategies that delay disease onset with 1 to 3 years could theoretically reduce lifetime risk for developing any of these diseases by 20%-50%.

CONCLUSION

One in two women and one in three men will develop dementia, stroke or parkinsonism during their life. These findings strengthen the call for prioritising the focus on preventive interventions at population level which could substantially reduce the burden of common neurological diseases in the ageing population.

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Comparison of ACC/AHA and ESC Guideline Recommendations Following Trial Evidence for Statin Use in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: Results From the Population-Based Rotterdam Study

IMPORTANCE

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines both recommend lipid-lowering treatment for primary prevention based on global risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for statin use have included participants with specific risk-factor profiles.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the overlap between the ACC/AHA and ESC guideline recommendations and available evidence from RCTs for statin use in primary prevention of CVD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We calculated the 10-year risk for hard atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) following the ACC/AHA guideline, 10-year risk of CVD mortality following the ESC guideline, and we determined eligibility for each of 10 major RCTs for primary prevention of CVD. Conducted from July 2014 to August 2015, this study included 7279 individuals free of CVD, aged 45 to 75 years, examined between 1997 and 2008 for the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Proportions of individuals qualifying for lipid-lowering treatment per guidelines, proportions of individuals eligible for any of the 10 RCTs, overlap between these groups, and corresponding ASCVD incidence rates.

RESULTS

Of the 7279 individuals included in the study, 58.2% were women (n = 4238) and had a mean (SD) age of 61.1 (6.9) years. The ACC/AHA guidelines would recommend statin initiation in 4284 participants (58.9%), while the ESC guidelines would in 2399 participants (33.0%) (overlapping by 95.8% with ACC/AHA). A total of 3857 participants (53.0%) met eligibility criteria for at least 1 RCT. Recommendations from both guidelines and trial evidence overlapped for 1546 participants (21.2%), who were at high risk for ASCVD (21.5 per 1000 person-years). A further 1703 participants (23.4%) would be recommended for statins by the guidelines in the absence of direct trial evidence, while 1176 (16.2%) would have been eligible for at least 1 trial without being recommended statin treatment by any guideline. Finally, 1719 participants (23.6%) would not be recommended a statin, nor would qualify for any of the trials. These individuals had low incidence of ASCVD (3.3 per 1000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Based on this European population study, ACC/AHA and ESC prevention guidelines often did not align at the individual level. However, for one-fifth of the general population, guidelines on both sides of the Atlantic recommend statin initiation, with trial data supporting the efficacy. There should be no controversy about providing optimal preventive medication to these individuals.

Trends in replacement of pacemaker leads in the Netherlands: A long-term nationwide follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to investigate trends over time in longevity and reasons for replacement with or without extraction of pacemaker leads after first implantation.

METHODS

Data collected between 1984 and 2006 in the national Dutch pacemaker registry were used. This registry covered 84% of sold leads. First lead replacement with or without extraction of one or more leads implanted with a first pacemaker generator was the endpoint of interest. The time interval of and reason for first replacement were analyzed. A 7-year follow-up interval after first implantation was used to analyze changes over time.

RESULTS

During 22 years of data collection, 138,225 leads were implanted with a first pacemaker generator. Within a mean 5.5 (SD 4.4) years for 7,377 patients one or more leads were extracted for the first time. In total, 8,849 leads (6.4%) were replaced or extracted. The main reasons for first replacement of leads with or without extraction were insulation failures (14.6%), infection (8.8%), displacement (7.6%), or for elective reasons (10.0%). The number of insulation failures peaked during 1991-1995.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvements in pacing techniques and experience with cardiac devices, we found that insulation and conductor failures, and complications such as infections, did not diminish over the 20 years of the registry. Continuing attention in clinical practice for the evaluation of these adverse outcomes and maintaining quality registries is warranted, whereas manufacturers should use this information to further improve their devices.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: The past, present, and future of blood pressure- and cholesterol-lowering treatments

In a Perspective, M. Afran Ikram and Maarten Leening discuss the evolving approaches to determining cardiovascular risk.

Leveraging the coronary calcium scan beyond the coronary calcium score

Non-contrast cardiac computed tomography in order to obtain the coronary artery calcium score has become an established diagnostic procedure in the clinical setting, and is commonly employed in clinical and population-based research. This state-of-the-art review paper highlights the potential gain in information that can be obtained from the non-contrast coronary calcium scans without any necessary modifications to the scan protocol. This includes markers of cardio-metabolic health, such as the amount of epicardial fat and liver fat, but also markers of general health including bone density and lung density. Finally, this paper addresses the importance of incidental findings and of radiation exposure accompanying imaging with non-contrast cardiac computed tomography. Despite the fact that coronary calcium scan protocols have been optimized for the visualization of coronary calcification in terms image quality and radiation exposure, it is important for radiologists, cardiologists and medical specialists in the field of preventive medicine to acknowledge that numerous additional markers of cardio-metabolic health and general health can be readily identified on a coronary calcium scan.

KEY POINTS

• The coronary artery calcium score substantially increased the use of cardiac CT. • Cardio-metabolic and general health markers may be derived without changes to the scan protocol. • Those include epicardial fat, aortic valve calcifications, liver fat, bone density, and lung density. • Clinicians must be aware of this potential additional yield from non-contrast cardiac CT.

Measures of subclinical cardiac dysfunction and increased filling pressures associate with pulmonary arterial pressure in the general population: results from the population-based Rotterdam Study

Pulmonary hypertension is associated with increased mortality and morbidity in the elderly population. Heart failure is a common cause of pulmonary hypertension. Yet, the relation between left heart parameters reflective of subclinical cardiac dysfunction and increased filling pressures, and pulmonary arterial pressures in the elderly population remains elusive. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, 2592 unselected participants with a mean age of 72.6 years (61.4% women) had complete echocardiography data available. We studied the cross-sectional associations of left heart structure and systolic and diastolic function with echocardiographically measured pulmonary artery systolic pressure. Mean pulmonary artery systolic pressure was 25.4 mmHg. After multivariable-adjustment measures of both structure and function were independently associated with pulmonary artery systolic pressure: E/A ratio [0.63 mmHg (95% CI 0.35–0.91) per 1-SD increase], left atrial diameter [0.79 mmHg (0.50–1.09) per 1-SD increase], E/E′ ratio [1.27 mmHg (0.92–1.61) per 1-SD increase], left ventricular volume [0.62 mmHg (0.25–0.98) per 1-SD increase], fractional shortening [0.45 mmHg (0.17–0.74) per 1-SD increase], aortic root diameter [− 0.43 mmHg (− 0.72 to − 0.14) per 1-SD increase], mitral valve deceleration time [− 0.31 mmHg (− 0.57 to − 0.05) per 1-SD increase], and E′ [1.04 mmHg (0.66–1.42) per 1-SD increase]. Results did not materially differ when restricting the analyses to participants free of symptoms of shortness of breath. Structural and functional echocardiographic parameters of subclinical cardiac dysfunction and increased filling pressures are associated with pulmonary arterial pressures in the unselected general ageing population.

Pulmonary function and diffusion capacity are associated with pulmonary arterial systolic pressure in the general population: The Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary hypertension is a progressive heterogeneous syndrome, characterized by elevated pulmonary arterial pressure which can lead to right ventricular failure. Although the presence of elevated pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) in patients with a lung disease is a well-known occurrence, little is known about the association between pulmonary function and PASP in the general population. We hypothesized that pulmonary function and PASP are associated, irrespective of airflow limitation.

METHODS

This study was performed within the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort. We included 1660 participants with spirometry, performed and interpreted according to ATS/ERS-guidelines, and echocardiography performed according to the ASE/EAE/CSE-guidelines. We analyzed the association of Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 s (FEV₁), Forced Vital Capacity (FVC), FEV₁/FVC and diffusion capacity (DL_CO) with estimated PASP (ePASP). Furthermore, we investigated the association between spirometry measures, COPD, and echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension.

RESULTS

A 10% absolute decrease in FEV₁ was associated with an ePASP increase of 0.46 mmHg (95%CI: 0.31; 0.61). Similarly, per absolute 10% decrease, FVC was significantly associated with an increased ePASP of 0.42 mmHg (95%CI: 0.25; 0.59). FEV₁/FVC showed an association of 1.01 mmHg (95%CI: 0.58; 1.45) increase in ePASP per 10% absolute decrease. A decrease in DL_CO (in mL/min/kPa) was associated with an increased ePASP (0.46 mmHg, 95%CI: 0.17; 0.76). We found significant associations for FEV₁ and FVC with echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension. Importantly, an increased ePASP was significantly associated with mortality (Hazard Ratio: 1.042 per mmHg [95%CI: 1.023-1.062; p < 0.001]).

CONCLUSION

We observed a clearly graded association between pulmonary function and ePASP and pulmonary hypertension, even in individuals without airflow limitation.

Trends in service time of pacemakers in the Netherlands: a long-term nationwide follow-up study

AIMS

After decades of experience and strongly improved technology, service time of pacemaker generators is expected to increase. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective review of a large cohort of patients with a pacemaker.

METHODS

We reviewed data collected between 1984 and 2006 in the first national Dutch pacemaker registry. This registry covered 96% of all generators implanted. We analysed the time of and reason for explantation of pacemaker generators. A 7-year follow-up interval after first implantation and following replacements was used to analyse changes over time.

RESULTS

During 22 years of data collection, nearly 97,000 first pacemaker generators were implanted. A total of 27,937 (22.4%) generators were explanted within a mean of 6.3 (standard deviation 3.3) years. Reasons for approximately 60% of these explantations were 'end of life' of the pacemaker generator or elective system change. Complications or failures such as infections and recalls accounted for approximately 20% of the explantations. For the remaining 20%, the reasons for explantation had not been registered.

CONCLUSION

Despite progress in technology, a substantial proportion of pacemaker generators is explanted before its expected service time, with one in five generators being replaced due to technical failures, infections or other complications. Furthermore, the time interval between pacemaker implantation and explantation due to normal 'end of life' (battery EOL) decreased. Infections continue to rank highly as a cause for pacing system replacement, despite all current preventive measures.

The long-term risk of recognized and unrecognized myocardial infarction for depression in older men

BACKGROUND

The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and depression is well described. Yet, the underlying mechanisms are unclear and the contribution of psychological factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of recognized (RMI) and unrecognized (UMI) myocardial infections on depression, as both have a similar impact on cardiovascular health but differ in psychological epiphenomena.

METHOD

Participants of the Rotterdam Study, 1823 men aged ⩾55 years, were followed for the occurrence of depression. RMI and UMI were ascertained using electrocardiography and medical history at baseline. We determined the strength of the association of RMI and UMI with mortality, and we studied the relationship of RMI and UMI with depressive symptoms and the occurrence of major depression.

RESULTS

The risk of mortality was similar in men with RMI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-2.03] and UMI (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.27-1.97). Men with RMI had on average [unstandardized regression coefficient (B) 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-2.21] higher scores for depressive symptoms. By contrast, we found no clear association between UMI and depressive symptoms (B 0.55, 95% CI -0.51 to 1.62) in men. Analysis including occurrence of major depression as the outcome were consistent with the pattern of association.

CONCLUSION

The discrepant association of RMI and UMI with mortality compared to depression suggests that the psychological burden of having experienced an MI contributes to the long-term risk of depression.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Arterial Stiffness and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), and the Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the association of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque, carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their role in improving AF risk prediction beyond the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF risk score.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from 3 population-based cohort studies: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (n=13 907); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; n=6640), and the Rotterdam Study (RS; n=5220). We evaluated the association of arterial indices with incident AF and computed the C-statistic, category-based net reclassification improvement (NRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating arterial indices into the CHARGE-AF risk score (age, race, height weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, smoking, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, and previous heart failure). Higher cIMT (meta-analyzed hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1-SD increment, 1.12 [1.08-1.16]) and presence of carotid plaque (1.30 [1.19-1.42]) were associated with higher AF incidence after adjustment for CHARGE-AF risk-score variables. Lower DC and higher PWV were associated with higher AF incidence only after adjustment for the CHARGE-AF risk-score variables excepting height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Addition of cIMT or carotid plaque marginally improved CHARGE-AF score prediction as assessed by the relative IDI (estimates, 0.025-0.051), but not when assessed with the C-statistic and NRI.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cIMT, presence of carotid plaque, and greater arterial stiffness are associated with higher AF incidence, indicating that atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness play a role in AF etiopathogenesis. However, arterial indices only modestly improve AF risk prediction.

Comparison of Atherosclerotic Calcification in Major Vessel Beds on the Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: The Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerosis is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Although atherosclerosis is a systemic disease, its burden varies considerably across vessel beds, which may translate into differences in mortality risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 2003 to 2006, a sample of 2408 elderly participants (mean age, 69.6±6.7 years; 52.4% female) from the population-based Rotterdam Study underwent computed tomography to quantify atherosclerotic calcification in the coronary arteries, aortic arch, extracranial, and intracranial internal carotid arteries. Mortality follow-up was complete until January 1, 2012. We investigated associations of calcification in each vessel bed with mortality using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors. Next, all vessel beds were included into 1 model to investigate independency of associations. Finally, we investigated the predictive value of calcification beyond the predictors included in the Pooled Cohort equations. During 15 775 person-years of follow-up, 283 participants died. Larger calcification volumes in all vessels were related to higher risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality, independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Most prominent associations were found for aortic arch calcification and cardiovascular mortality (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio per 1-SD increase 2.72 [95% confidence interval, 1.85-4.02]), independent of calcification elsewhere (hazard ratio, 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.72]). Calcification in any vessel improved prediction for all 3 outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Atherosclerotic load in major vessel beds is associated with an increased risk of death. In particular, aortic arch calcification volume yields unique information with regard to mortality in addition to atherosclerosis in other vessel beds.

Serum Magnesium and the Risk of Death From Coronary Heart Disease and Sudden Cardiac Death

BACKGROUND

Low serum magnesium has been implicated in cardiovascular mortality, but results are conflicting and the pathway is unclear. We studied the association of serum magnesium with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and sudden cardiac death (SCD) within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, with adjudicated end points and long-term follow-up.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Nine-thousand eight-hundred and twenty participants (mean age 65.1 years, 56.8% female) were included with a median follow-up of 8.7 years. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and found that a 0.1 mmol/L increase in serum magnesium level was associated with a lower risk for CHD mortality (hazard ratio: 0.82, 95% CI 0.70-0.96). Furthermore, we divided serum magnesium in quartiles, with the second and third quartile combined as reference group (0.81-0.88 mmol/L). Low serum magnesium (≤0.80 mmol/L) was associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality (N=431, hazard ratio: 1.36, 95% CI 1.09-1.69) and SCD (N=217, hazard ratio: 1.54, 95% CI 1.12-2.11). Low serum magnesium was associated with accelerated subclinical atherosclerosis (expressed as increased carotid intima-media thickness: +0.013 mm, 95% CI 0.005-0.020) and increased QT-interval, mainly through an effect on heart rate (RR-interval: -7.1 ms, 95% CI -13.5 to -0.8). Additional adjustments for carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate did not change the associations with CHD mortality and SCD.

CONCLUSIONS

Low serum magnesium is associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality and SCD. Although low magnesium was associated with both carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate, this did not explain the relationship between serum magnesium and CHD mortality or SCD. Future studies should focus on why magnesium associates with CHD mortality and SCD and whether intervention reduces these risks.

Lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism and eventual progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism, including prediabetes, as are data for the risk of eventual progression from prediabetes to diabetes and for initiation of insulin treatment in previously untreated patients with diabetes. We aimed to calculate the lifetime risk of the full range of glucose impairments, from normoglycaemia to prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and eventual insulin use.

METHODS

In this prospective population-based cohort analysis, we used data from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We identified diagnostic events by use of general practitioners' records, hospital discharge letters, pharmacy dispensing data, and serum fasting glucose measurements taken at the study centre (Rotterdam, Netherlands) visits. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes, and diabetes were defined on the basis of WHO criteria for fasting glucose (normoglycaemia: ≤6·0 mmol/L; prediabetes: >6·0 mmol/L and <7·0 mmol/L; and diabetes ≥7·0 mmol/L or use of glucose-lowering drug). We calculated lifetime risk using a modified version of survival analysis adjusted for the competing risk of death. We also estimated the lifetime risk of progression from prediabetes to overt diabetes and from diabetes free of insulin treatment to insulin use. Additionally, we calculated years lived with healthy glucose metabolism.

FINDINGS

We used data from 10 050 participants from the Rotterdam Study. During a follow-up of up to 14·7 years (between April 1, 1997, and Jan 1, 2012), 1148 participants developed prediabetes, 828 developed diabetes, and 237 started insulin treatment. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk was 48·7% (95% CI 46·2-51·3) for prediabetes, 31·3% (29·3-33·3) for diabetes, and 9·1% (7·8-10·3) for insulin use. In individuals aged 45 years, the lifetime risk to progress from prediabetes to diabetes was 74·0% (95% CI 67·6-80·5), and 49·1% (38·2-60·0) of the individuals with overt diabetes at this age started insulin treatment. The lifetime risks attenuated with advancing age, but increased with increasing BMI and waist circumference. On average, individuals with severe obesity lived 10 fewer years without glucose impairment compared with normal-weight individuals.

INTERPRETATION

Impaired glucose metabolism is a substantial burden on population health, and our findings emphasise the need for more effective prevention strategies, which should be implemented as soon in a person's life as possible. The substantial lifetime risk of prediabetes and diabetes in lean individuals also supports risk factor control in non-obese individuals.

FUNDING

Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development; Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports; European Commission; and Municipality of Rotterdam.

Use of antidepressants and the risk of myocardial infarction in middle-aged and older adults: a matched case-control study

Purpose

Antidepressants, specifically selective serotonin reuptake-inhibiting antidepressants (SSRIs), decrease platelet activation and aggregation in in vitro experiments and could therefore decrease the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). However, prior studies addressing this hypothesis showed contradictory results. Our purpose was to investigate the association between the use of any antidepressant drug and incident MI among middle-aged and older adults.

Methods

We embedded a case-control study in the prospective Rotterdam Study (1991–2011). Controls were matched to MI cases based on sex and age at the same calendar date, and confounding factors were taken into account as time-varying covariates. The relative risk of MI during current and past use of an antidepressant was analyzed with conditional logistic regression with never use of antidepressant drugs as the reference category.

Results

A total of 744 out of a cohort of 9499 study participants developed MI during follow-up. After statistical adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and depression, current use of any antidepressant was associated with a lower risk of MI (odds ratio (OR), 0.71; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.51–0.98) compared with never use of any antidepressant. SSRI use showed the lowest relative risk (OR, 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.41–1.02), albeit marginally not statistically significant. Past use of any of the antidepressant classes was not associated with a lower risk of MI.

Conclusions

Current use of antidepressants was associated with a lower risk of MI. Of the different classes, the use of SSRIs showed the lowest risk of MI, and therefore confirming the research hypothesis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00228-015-1972-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality

IMPORTANCE

The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.

EXPOSURES

A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.

RESULTS

In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Prevalence of Pulmonary Hypertension in the General Population: The Rotterdam Study

Background

Pulmonary hypertension is characterized by increased pulmonary artery pressure and carries an increased mortality. Population-based studies into pulmonary hypertension are scarce and little is known about its prevalence in the general population. We aimed to describe the distribution of echocardiographically-assessed pulmonary artery systolic pressure (ePASP) in the general population, to estimate the prevalence of pulmonary hypertension, and to identify associated factors.

Methods

Participants (n = 3381, mean age 76.4 years, 59% women) from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort, underwent echocardiography. Echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension was defined as ePASP>40 mmHg.

Results

Mean ePASP was 26.3 mmHg (SD 7.0). Prevalence of echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension was 2.6% (95%CI: 2.0; 3.2). Prevalence was higher in older participants compared to younger ones (8.3% in those over 85 years versus 0.8% in those between 65 and 70), and in those with underlying disorders versus those without (5.9% in subjects with COPD versus 2.3%; 9.2% in those with left ventricular systolic dysfunction versus 2.3%; 23.1% in stages 3 or 4 left ventricular diastolic dysfunction versus 1.9% in normal or stage 1). Factors independently associated with higher ePASP were older age, higher BMI, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, COPD and systemic hypertension.

Conclusion

In this large population-based study, we show that pulmonary hypertension as measured by echocardiography has a low prevalence in the overall general population in the Netherlands, but estimates may be higher in specific subgroups, especially in those with underlying diseases. Increased pulmonary arterial pressure is likely to gain importance in the near future due to population aging and the accompanying prevalences of underlying disorders.

Subclinical Abnormalities in Echocardiographic Parameters and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death in a General Population: The Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND

Subclinical cardiac dysfunction has been associated with increased mortality, and heart failure increases the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Less well known is whether subclinical cardiac dysfunction is also a risk factor for SCD. Our objective was to assess the association between echocardiographic parameters and SCD in a community-dwelling population free of heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We computed hazard ratios (HRs) for left atrium diameter, left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic dimension, LV end-systolic dimension, LV mass, qualitative LV systolic function, LV fractional shortening, and diastolic function. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years in 4,686 participants, 68 participants died because of SCD. Significant associations with SCD were observed for qualitative LV systolic function and LV fractional shortening. For moderate/poor qualitative LV systolic function, the HR for SCD was 2.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-5.87). Each standard deviation decrease in LV fractional shortening was associated with an HR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.09-1.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical abnormalities in LV systolic function were associated with SCD risk in this general population. Although prediction of SCD remains difficult and traditional cardiovascular risk factors are of greatest importance, this knowledge might guide future directions to prevent SCD in persons with subclinical cardiac dysfunction.

Associations of heart failure with sleep quality: the Rotterdam Study

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of sleep disturbances and heart failure increases with age. We aimed to evaluate the associations of incident heart failure and cardiac dysfunction with changes in sleep quality.

METHODS

This prospective population-based study was conducted in the Rotterdam Study. Of the 3445 eligible persons (mean age 72.0±7.1 years) available for cross-sectional analyses, 8.9% (n = 307) had prevalent clinical heart failure. In longitudinal analyses, 1989 eligible persons (mean age 70.0±5.8 years) were followed for an average of 6.5±0.4 years, of which 4.6% (n = 91) had prevalent or incident clinical heart failure. Heart failure was assessed according to European Society of Cardiology criteria. To estimate cardiac function, we measured left ventricular fractional shortening, left ventricular systolic function, and E/A ratio by echocardiography. Heart failure and cardiac dysfunction were studied with linear regression in relation to sleep quality, assessed by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index.

RESULTS

No associations between clinical heart failure and sleep quality were observed in cross-sectional analyses. Clinical heart failure predicted a reduction of sleep quality (B = 1.00 points on the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index; 95% CI 0.40, 1.60) in longitudinal assessment. This association was driven by the sleep onset latency and sleep quality components of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Cardiac dysfunction was not related to sleep quality in cross-sectional or longitudinal analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical heart failure, but not cardiac dysfunction measured by echocardiography, increases the risk of poor sleep quality in the general population over time. These findings suggest that clinical manifestations of heart failure negatively affect sleep.

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework.

DESIGN

Prospective population based cohort study.

SETTING

People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages.

Use of coumarin anticoagulants and cerebral microbleeds in the general population

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It remains undetermined whether the use of coumarin anticoagulants associates with cerebral microbleeds in the general population. We investigated whether (1) coumarin use relates to higher prevalence and incidence of microbleeds, (2) microbleeds are more frequent in people with higher maximum international normalized ratios (INRs), and (3) among coumarin users, variability in INR associates with microbleed presence.

METHODS

From the population-based Rotterdam Study, 4945 participants aged ≥45 years were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 3069 participants had follow-up brain MRI. Information on coumarin use was obtained from automated pharmacy records. Coumarin users were monitored, and INR values were measured in consecutive visits. Presence and location of microbleeds were rated on brain MRI. We investigated the association of coumarin use with microbleeds using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 8.6% had used coumarin anticoagulants before the first MRI and 5.9% before follow-up MRI. The prevalence of microbleeds was 19.4%, and the incidence was 6.9% during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years (SD, 0.5). Compared with never users, coumarin users had a higher prevalence of deep or infratentorial microbleeds and a higher incidence of any microbleeds, although statistical significance was not reached in the latter. A higher maximum INR was associated with deep or infratentorial microbleeds. Among coumarin users, a greater variability in INR was associated with a higher prevalence of microbleeds.

CONCLUSIONS

Coumarin use is associated with microbleeds. Associations were strongest for people with greater variability in INR.