Risks of use and non-use of antibiotics in primary care: qualitative study of prescribers' views

PURPOSE

The emergence of antimicrobial resistance has led to increasing efforts to reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics in primary care, but potential hazards from bacterial infection continue to cause concern. This study investigated how primary care prescribers perceive risk and safety concerns associated with reduced antibiotic prescribing.

METHODS

Qualitative study using semistructured interviews conducted with primary care prescribers from 10 general practices in an urban area and a shire town in England. A thematic analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Thirty participants were recruited, including twenty-three general practitioners, five nurses and two pharmacists. Three main themes were identified: risk assessment, balancing treatment risks and negotiating decisions and risks. Respondents indicated that their decisions were grounded in clinical risk assessment, but this was informed by different approaches to antibiotic use, with most leaning towards reduced prescribing. Prescribers' perceptions of risk included the consequences of both inappropriate prescribing and inappropriate withholding of antibiotics. Sepsis was viewed as the most concerning potential outcome of non-prescribing, leading to possible patient harm and potential litigation. Risks of antibiotic prescribing included antibiotic resistant and Clostridium difficile infections, as well as side effects, such as rashes, that might lead to possible mislabelling as antibiotic allergy. Prescribers elicited patient preferences for use or avoidance of antibiotics to inform management strategies, which included educational advice, advice on self-management including warning signs, use of delayed prescriptions and safety netting.

CONCLUSIONS

Attitudes towards antibiotic prescribing are evolving, with reduced antibiotic prescribing now being approached more systematically. The safety trade-offs associated with either use or non-use of antibiotics present difficulties especially when prescribing decisions are inconsistent with patients' expectations.

Revisiting patient expectations and experiences of antibiotics in an era of antimicrobial resistance: Qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate contemporary patient expectations and experiences of antibiotic prescribing in England.

BACKGROUND

Primary care providers' compliance with patient influences has been identified as a motivation for antibiotic-prescribing behaviour. Since 2013, there have been concerted efforts to publicize and address the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance. A fresh qualitative insight into patient expectations and experiences is needed.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Two English regions, one an urban metropolitan area and the other a town in rural England. Patients who recently consulted for infections were recruited. The information power approach was used to determine the number of participants, yielding a sample of 31 participants.

MAIN MEASURES

Thematic analysis was carried out to analyse the interview data.

RESULTS

Five themes were identified: beliefs, expectations, experiences of taking antibiotic, experience of antimicrobial resistance and side-effects, and experiences of consultations. The accounts reflected improved public knowledge: antibiotics were perceived to be much-needed medicines that should be prescribed when appropriate. The data showed that patients formed expectations of expectations, trying to read the prescribers' intentions and reflect on the dependency between what prescribers and patients wanted. Patient experiences featured as nuanced and detailed with knowledge of AMR and side-effects of antibiotics in the context of positive consultation experiences.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlighted complex interplays between adherence to antibiotics and consuming antibiotics in reflexive, informed ways. Ensuring that present and future patients are informed about potential benefits and harms of antibiotic use will contribute to future antimicrobial stewardship.

Electronically delivered interventions to reduce antibiotic prescribing for respiratory infections in primary care: cluster RCT using electronic health records and cohort study

BACKGROUND

Unnecessary prescribing of antibiotics in primary care is contributing to the emergence of antimicrobial drug resistance.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate a multicomponent intervention for antimicrobial stewardship in primary care, and to evaluate the safety of reducing antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting respiratory infections (RTIs).

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent intervention, developed as part of this study, including a webinar, monthly reports of general practice-specific data for antibiotic prescribing and decision support tools to inform appropriate antibiotic prescribing.

DESIGN

A parallel-group, cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in 79 general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PARTICIPANTS

All registered patients were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the rate of antibiotic prescriptions for self-limiting RTIs over the 12-month intervention period.

COHORT STUDY

A separate population-based cohort study was conducted in 610 CPRD general practices that were not exposed to the trial interventions. Data were analysed to evaluate safety outcomes for registered patients with 45.5 million person-years of follow-up from 2005 to 2014.

RESULTS

There were 41 intervention trial arm practices (323,155 patient-years) and 38 control trial arm practices (259,520 patient-years). There were 98.7 antibiotic prescriptions for RTIs per 1000 patient-years in the intervention trial arm (31,907 antibiotic prescriptions) and 107.6 per 1000 patient-years in the control arm (27,923 antibiotic prescriptions) [adjusted antibiotic-prescribing rate ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 0.99; p = 0.040]. There was no evidence of effect in children aged < 15 years (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.12) or adults aged ≥ 85 years (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.18). Antibiotic prescribing was reduced in adults aged between 15 and 84 years (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.95), that is, one antibiotic prescription was avoided for every 62 patients (95% CI 40 to 200 patients) aged 15-84 years per year. Analysis of trial data for 12 safety outcomes, including pneumonia and peritonsillar abscess, showed no evidence that these outcomes might be increased as a result of the intervention. The analysis of data from non-trial practices showed that if a general practice with an average list size of 7000 patients reduces the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed by 10%, then 1.1 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.5) more cases of pneumonia per year and 0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.3) more cases of peritonsillar abscesses per decade may be observed. There was no evidence that mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess or Lemierre syndrome were more frequent at low-prescribing practices.

LIMITATIONS

The research was based on electronic health records that may not always provide complete data. The number of practices included in the trial was smaller than initially intended.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found evidence that, overall, general practice antibiotic prescribing for RTIs was reduced by this electronically delivered intervention. Antibiotic prescribing rates were reduced for adults aged 15-84 years, but not for children or the senior elderly.

FUTURE WORK

Strategies for antimicrobial stewardship should employ stratified interventions that are tailored to specific age groups. Further research into the safety of reduced antibiotic prescribing is also needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95232781.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Peritonsillar Abscess and Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Infection in Primary Care: A Population-Based Cohort Study and Decision-Analytic Model

PURPOSE

To quantify the risk of peritonsillar abscess (PTA) following consultation for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care.

METHOD

A cohort study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink including 718 general practices with 65,681,293 patient years of follow-up and 11,007 patients with a first episode of PTA. From a decision tree, Bayes theorem was employed to estimate both the probability of PTA following an RTI consultation if antibiotics were prescribed or not, and the number of patients needed to be treated with antibiotics to prevent 1 PTA.

RESULTS

There were 11,007 patients with PTA with age-standardized incidence of new episodes of PTA of 17.2 per 100,000 patient years for men and 16.1 for women; 6,996 (64%) consulted their practitioner in the 30 days preceding PTA diagnosis, including 4,243 (39%) consulting for RTI. The probability of PTA following an RTI consultation was greatest in men aged 15 to 24 years with 1 PTA in 565 (95% uncertainty interval 527 to 605) RTI consultations without antibiotics prescribed but 1 in 1,139 consultations (1,044 to 1,242) if antibiotics were prescribed. One PTA might be avoided for every 1,121 (975 to 1,310) additional antibiotic prescriptions for men aged 15 to 24 years and 926 (814 to 1,063) for men aged 25 to 34 years. The risk of PTA following RTI consultation was smaller and the number needed to treat higher at other ages and risks were lower in women than men.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of PTA may be lower if antibiotics are prescribed for RTI but even in young men nearly 1,000 antibiotic prescriptions may be required to prevent 1 PTA case. We caution that lack of randomization and data standardization may bias estimates.

Well-being, physical activity and long-term conditions: cross-sectional analysis of Health Survey for England 2016

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether physical activity is associated with greater well-being in people with multiple long-term conditions or limiting long-term illness (LLI).

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2016.

METHODS

The Warwick-Edinburgh mental well-being score (WEMWBS) was evaluated according to number of days per week with >30 min moderate or vigorous activity. LLI and number of long-term conditions were evaluated as effect modifiers, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, body mass index and education. Marginal effects were estimated for female non-smokers, aged 45-54 years.

RESULTS

Data were analyzed for 5952 adults (female, 3275; male, 2677) including 1104 (19%) with non-limiting long-term illness and 1486 (25%) with LLI. There were 2065 (35%) with 1-2 long-term conditions, 461 (8%) with 3-4 and 58 (1%) with 5-6 long-term conditions. Participants with LLI were less likely to engage in physical activity on 5 or more days per week (LLI, 24%; No LLI, 47%) and more likely to be inactive (LLI, 41%; No LLI 13%). The adjusted marginal mean WEMWBS for inactive participants with no long-term illness was 49.0 (95% confidence interval 48.1 to 50.0), compared with 51.1 (50.4-51.8) if active on 5+ days per week. In LLI, the adjusted marginal mean WEMWBS was 41.6 (40.7-42.5) if inactive but 47.6 (46.6-48.6) if active on 5+ days per week. Similar associations were observed for the number of long-term conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity may be associated with greater increments in well-being among people with multiple long-term conditions or LLI than those without.

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-2017: Population-based cohort study and decision analytic model

BACKGROUND

Efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

These stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs.

Comparison of antibiotic prescribing records in two UK primary care electronic health record systems: cohort study using CPRD GOLD and CPRD Aurum databases

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate recording of antibiotic prescribing from two primary care electronic health record systems.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

UK general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases: CPRD GOLD (Vision data) and CPRD Aurum (EMIS data). English CPRD GOLD general practices were analysed as a subgroup, as all CPRD Aurum practices were located in England.

PARTICIPANTS

158 305 patients were randomly sampled from CPRD Aurum and 160 394 from CPRD GOLD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Antibiotic prescriptions in 2017 were identified. Age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rates per 1000 person years were calculated. Prescribing of individual antibiotic products and associated medical diagnoses was evaluated.

RESULTS

There were 101 360 antibiotic prescriptions at 883 CPRD Aurum practices and 112 931 prescriptions at 290 CPRD GOLD practices, including 112 general practices in England. The age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rate in 2017 was 512.6 (95% CI 510.4 to 514.9) per 1000 person years in CPRD Aurum and 584.3 (582.1 to 586.5) per 1000 person years in CPRD GOLD (505.2 (501.6 to 508.9) per 1000 person years if restricted to practices in England). The 25 most frequently prescribed antibiotic products were similar in both databases. One or more medical codes were recorded on the same date as an antibiotic prescription for 72 989 (74%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 84 756 (78%) in CPRD GOLD and 28 471 (78%) for CPRD GOLD in England. Skin, respiratory and genitourinary tract infections were recorded for 39 035 (40%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 41 326 (38%) in CPRD GOLD, with 15 481 (42%) in English CPRD GOLD practices only.

CONCLUSION

Estimates for antibiotic prescribing and infection recording were broadly similar in both databases suggesting similar recording across EMIS and Vision systems. Future research on antimicrobial stewardship can also be conducted using primary care data in CPRD Aurum.

Serious bacterial infections and antibiotic prescribing in primary care: cohort study using electronic health records in the UK

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated whether serious bacterial infections are more frequent at family practices with lower antibiotic prescribing rates.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

706 UK family practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2002 to 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

10.1 million registered patients with 69.3 million patient-years' follow-up.

EXPOSURES

All antibiotic prescriptions, subgroups of acute and repeat antibiotic prescriptions, and proportion of antibiotic prescriptions associated with specific-coded indications.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First episodes of serious bacterial infections. Poisson models were fitted adjusting for age group, gender, comorbidity, deprivation, region and calendar year, with random intercepts representing family practice-specific estimates.

RESULTS

The age-standardised antibiotic prescribing rate per 1000 patient-years increased from 2002 (male 423; female 621) to 2012 (male 530; female 842) before declining to 2017 (male 449; female 753). The median family practice had an antibiotic prescribing rate of 648 per 1000 patient-years with 95% range for different practices of 430-1038 antibiotic prescriptions per 1000 patient-years. Specific coded indications were recorded for 58% of antibiotic prescriptions at the median family practice, the 95% range at different family practices was from 10% to 75%. There were 139 759 first episodes of serious bacterial infection. After adjusting for covariates and the proportion of coded consultations, there was no evidence that serious bacterial infections were lower at family practices with higher total antibiotic prescribing. The adjusted rate ratio for 20% higher total antibiotic prescribing was 1.03, (95% CI 1.00 to 1.06, p=0.074).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find population-level evidence that family practices with lower total antibiotic prescribing might have more frequent occurrence of serious bacterial infections overall. Improving the recording of infection episodes has potential to inform better antimicrobial stewardship in primary care.

Engagement with advice to reduce cardiovascular risk following a health check programme: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The success of a cardiovascular health check programme depends not only on the identification of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but also on reducing CVD risk. We examined factors that might influence engagement and adherence to lifestyle change interventions and medication amongst people recently assessed at medium or high risk of CVD (>10% in the next 10 years).

METHOD

Qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using the Framework method.

RESULTS

Twenty-two participants (12 men, 10 women) were included in the study. Four broad themes are described: (a) the meaning of 'risk', (b) experiences with medication, (c) attempts at lifestyle change, and (d) perceived enablers to longer-term change. The experience of having a health check was mostly positive and reassuring. Although participants may not have understood precisely what their CVD risk meant, many reported efforts to make lifestyle changes and take medications to reduce their risk. Individual's experience with medications was influenced by family, friends and the media. Lifestyle change services and family and friends support facilitated longer-term behaviour change.

CONCLUSIONS

People generally appear to respond positively to having a CVD health check and report being motivated towards behaviour change. Some individuals at higher risk may need clearer information about the health check and the implications of being at risk of CVD. Concerns over medication use may need to be addressed in order to improve adherence. Strategies are required to facilitate engagement and promote longer-term maintenance with lifestyle changes amongst high-risk individuals.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antihypertensive Therapy in Patients Older Than 80 Years: Cohort Study and Markov Model

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment (AHT) generally increase with age, but there is uncertainty concerning the value of treatment at very advanced ages.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of AHT in people aged 80 years and older.

METHODS

A Markov model compared AHT with no blood pressure treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes were new stroke, coronary heart disease, and diabetes, with falls included as a potential complication of AHT. Costs were evaluated from a health system perspective. Incidence, mortality, and costs of healthcare utilization were estimated from linked primary and secondary care electronic health records for 98 220 individuals aged 80 years and older. Clinical effectiveness estimates were from the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In the base case, AHT was associated with an additional 725 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and £4.3 million per 1000, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5977 per QALY. The ICER was most sensitive to the cost of falls and relative risk reduction in stroke incidence. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis gave 95% uncertainty intervals: £5057 to £8398 per QALY in men and £4955 to £8218 per QALY in women. AHT for secondary prevention in participants with coronary heart disease gave an ICER of £9903 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

AHT is estimated to be cost-effective in individuals aged 80 years and older, even if health benefits are smaller or side effects costlier than in the base case. Benefits and harms for vulnerable subgroups require further evaluation.

Continuity of care and delivery of diabetes and hypertensive care among regular users of primary care services in Chile: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Explore factors related to continuity of care and its association with diabetes and hypertensive care, and disease control.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Data from the Chilean Health National Survey 2009-2010.

PARTICIPANTS

Regular users of primary care services aged 15 or older.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of hypertensive and diabetic patients with a blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg and HbA1c<7.0% respectively, self-report of diagnosis, treatment and recent foot and ophthalmological exams. Associations between continuity of care, sociodemographic characteristics, and primary and secondary outcomes were explored using logistic regression.

RESULTS

3887 primary care service users were included. 14.7% recognised a usual GP, 82.3% of them knew their name. Continuity of care was positively associated with age >65 years (OR 4.81, 95% CI 3.16 to 7.32), being female (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.05), retired (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.83), obese (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.14), high cardiovascular risk (OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.13 to 4.17) and widowed (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.99), and negatively associated with educational level (8-12 vs <8 years OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.97), smoking (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.82) and physical activity (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.95). Continuity of care was associated with diagnosis awareness (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.21 to 6.63), pharmacological treatment (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.63) and a recent foot (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.84 to 5.45) and ophthalmological exam (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.66 to 6.18) in diabetic but not in hypertensive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuity of care was associated with higher odds of having a recent foot and ophthalmological exam in patients with diabetes, but not with better diseases control. Findings suggest patients with chronic conditions have better continuity of care access.

Reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care in England from 2014 to 2017: population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse individual-patient electronic health records to evaluate changes in antibiotic (AB) prescribing in England for different age groups, for male and female subjects, and by prescribing indications from 2014 to 2017.

METHODS

Data were analysed for 102 general practices in England that contributed data to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2014 to 2017. Prescriptions for all ABs and for broad-spectrum β-lactam ABs were evaluated. Relative rate reductions (RRR) were estimated from a random-effects Poisson model, adjusting for age, gender, and general practice.

RESULTS

Total AB prescribing declined from 608 prescriptions per 1000 person-years in 2014 to 489 per 1000 person-years in 2017; RRR 6.9% (95% CI 6.6% to 7.1%) per year. Broad-spectrum β-lactam AB prescribing decreased from 221 per 1000 person-years in 2014 to 163 per 1000 person-years in 2017; RRR 9.3% (9.0% to 9.6%) per year. Declines in AB prescribing were similar for men and women but the rate of decline was lower over the age of 55 years than for younger patients. All AB prescribing declined by 9.8% (9.6% to 10.1%) per year for respiratory infections, 5.7% (5.2% to 6.2%) for genitourinary infections, but by 3.8% (3.1% to 4.5%) for no recorded indication. Overall, 38.8% of AB prescriptions were associated with codes that did not suggest specific clinical conditions, and 15.3% of AB prescriptions had no medical codes recorded.

CONCLUSION

Antibiotic prescribing has reduced and become more selective but substantial unnecessary AB use may persist. Improving the quality of diagnostic coding for AB use will help to support antimicrobial stewardship efforts.

Tuberculosis screening for prospective migrants to high-income countries: systematic review of policies

OBJECTIVE

To compare predeparture tuberculosis (TB) screening policies, including screening criteria and screening tests, and visa requirements for prospective migrants to high-income countries that have low to intermediate TB incidence and high immigration.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review of policy documents.

METHODS

We systematically identified high-income, high net-migration countries with an estimated TB incidence of <30 per 100,000. After initial selection, this yielded 15 countries which potentially had TB screening policies. We performed a systematic search of governmental and official visa services' websites for these countries to identify visa information and policy documents for prospective migrants. Results were summarized, tabulated, and compared.

RESULTS

Programs to screen for active TB were identified in all 15 countries, but screening criteria and screening tests varied substantially between countries. Prospective migrants' country of origin represented an initial assessment criterion which generally focused on elevated TB incidence based on World Health Organization data but also focused on the countries of origin that sent the most migrants, and this varied between destination countries. Specific categories of migrants represented a second assessment criterion that focused on duration of stay and reasons for migration; the focus of which showed variation between the destination countries. Specific screening tests including medical examination and chest X-rays were used as the final stage of assessment, and there were differences between which tests were used between the destination countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Current approaches to migrant TB screening are inconsistent in their approach and implementation. While this variation might reflect adaptation to local public health situations, it could also indicate uncertainty concerning optimal strategies. Comparative research studies are needed to define the most effective and efficient methods for TB screening of migrants.

Effectiveness and safety of electronically delivered prescribing feedback and decision support on antibiotic use for respiratory illness in primary care: REDUCE cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety at population scale of electronically delivered prescribing feedback and decision support interventions at reducing antibiotic prescribing for self limiting respiratory tract infections.

DESIGN

Open label, two arm, cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

UK general practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, randomised between 11 November 2015 and 9 August 2016, with final follow-up on 9 August 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

79 general practices (582 675 patient years) randomised (1:1) to antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) intervention or usual care.

INTERVENTIONS

AMS intervention comprised a brief training webinar, automated monthly feedback reports of antibiotic prescribing, and electronic decision support tools to inform appropriate prescribing over 12 months. Intervention components were delivered electronically, supported by a local practice champion nominated for the trial.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was the rate of antibiotic prescriptions for respiratory tract infections from electronic health records. Serious bacterial complications were evaluated for safety. Analysis was by Poisson regression with general practice as a random effect, adjusting for covariates. Prespecified subgroup analyses by age group were reported.

RESULTS

The trial included 41 AMS practices (323 155 patient years) and 38 usual care practices (259 520 patient years). Unadjusted and adjusted rate ratios for antibiotic prescribing were 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.16) and 0.88 (0.78 to 0.99, P=0.04), respectively, with prescribing rates of 98.7 per 1000 patient years for AMS (31 907 prescriptions) and 107.6 per 1000 patient years for usual care (27 923 prescriptions). Antibiotic prescribing was reduced most in adults aged 15-84 years (adjusted rate ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.95), with one antibiotic prescription per year avoided for every 62 patients (95% confidence interval 40 to 200). There was no evidence of effect for children younger than 15 years (adjusted rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.12) or people aged 85 years and older (0.97, 0.79 to 1.18); there was also no evidence of an increase in serious bacterial complications (0.92, 0.74 to 1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Electronically delivered interventions, integrated into practice workflow, result in moderate reductions of antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections in adults, which are likely to be of importance for public health. Antibiotic prescribing to very young or old patients requires further evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN95232781.

Implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care: a qualitative study

Background

The implementation of multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care is suboptimal. This study aimed to identify barriers and facilitators to implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction in primary care.

Methods

Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of healthcare professionals working in the implementation of the NHS Health Check programme in London. Data were analysed using the Framework method.

Results

Thirty participants were recruited including ten general practitioners, ten practice nurses, seven healthcare assistants and three practice managers from 23 practices. Qualitative analysis identified three main themes: healthcare professionals’ conceptualising health behaviour change; delivering multiple health behaviour change interventions in primary care; and delivering the health check programme. Healthcare professionals generally recognised the importance of health behaviour change for CVD risk reduction but were more sceptical about the potential for successful intervention through primary care. Participants identified the difficulty of sustained behaviour change for patients, the lack of evidence for effective interventions and limited access to appropriate resources in primary care as barriers. Discussing changing multiple health behaviours was perceived to be overwhelming for patients and difficult to implement for healthcare professionals with current primary care resources. The health check programme consists of several components that are difficult to fully complete in limited time.

Conclusions

Advancing the prevention agenda will require strategies to support the delivery of behaviour change interventions in primary care. Greater emphasis needs to be given to promoting behaviour change through supportive environmental context. Further research is needed to evaluate current external lifestyle services to improve the intervention outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12875-018-0860-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determinants of health care costs in the senior elderly: age, comorbidity, impairment, or proximity to death?

Ageing is assumed to be accompanied by greater health care expenditures but the association is also viewed as a 'red herring'. This study aimed to evaluate whether age is associated with health care costs in the senior elderly, using electronic health records for 98,220 participants aged 80 years and over registered with the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics (2010-2014). Annual costs of health care utilization were estimated from a two-part model; multiple fractional polynomial models were employed to evaluate the non-linear association of age with predicted health care costs while also controlling for comorbidities, impairments, and death proximity. Annual health care costs increased from 80 years (£2972 in men, £2603 in women) to 97 (men; £4721) or 98 years (women; £3963), before declining. Costs were significantly elevated in the last year of life but this effect declined with age, from £10,027 in younger octogenarians to £7021 in centenarians. This decline was steeper in participants with comorbidities or impairments; £14,500 for 80-84-year-olds and £6752 for centenarians with 7+ impairments. At other times, comorbidity and impairments, not age, were main drivers of costs. We conclude that comorbidities, impairments, and proximity to death are key mediators of age-related increases in health care costs. While the costs of comorbidity among survivors are not generally associated with age, additional costs in the last year of life decline with age.

Automated recruitment and randomisation for an efficient randomised controlled trial in primary care

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Use of electronic health records and information technology to deliver more efficient clinical trials is attracting the attention of research funders and researchers. We report on methodological issues and data quality for a comparison of 'automated' and manual (or 'in-practice') methods for recruitment and randomisation in a large randomised controlled trial, with individual patient allocation in primary care.

METHODS

We conducted a three-arm randomised controlled trial in primary care to evaluate interventions to improve the uptake of invited NHS health checks for cardiovascular risk assessment. Eligible participants were identified using a borough-wide health check management information system. An in-practice recruitment and randomisation method used at 12 general practices required the research team to complete monthly visits to each general practice. For the fully automated method, employed for six general practices, randomisation of eligible participants was performed automatically and remotely using a bespoke algorithm embedded in the health check management information system.

RESULTS

There were 8588 and 4093 participants recruited for the manual and automated methods, respectively. The in-practice method was ready for implementation 3 months sooner than the automated method and the in-practice method allowed for full control and documentation of the randomisation procedure. However the in-practice approach was labour intensive and the requirement for participant records to be stored locally resulted in the loss of data for 10 practice months. No records for participants allocated using the automated method were lost. A fixed-effects meta-analysis showed that effect estimates for the primary outcome were consistent for the two allocation methods.

CONCLUSIONS

This trial demonstrated the feasibility of automated recruitment and randomisation methods into a randomised controlled trial performed in primary care. Future research should explore the application of these techniques in other clinical contexts and health care settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials, ID: ISRCTN42856343 . Registered on 21 March 2013.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

BACKGROUND

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.

METHODS

We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.

RESULTS

In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Cardiovascular risk at health checks performed opportunistically or following an invitation letter. Cohort study

Background

A population-based programme of health checks has been established in England. Participants receive postal invitations through a population-based call–recall system but health check providers may also offer health checks opportunistically. We compared cardiovascular risk scores for ‘invited’ and ‘opportunistic’ health checks.

Methods

Cohort study of all health checks completed at 18 general practices from July 2013 to June 2015. For each general practice, cardiovascular (CVD) risk scores were compared by source of check and pooled using meta-analysis. Effect estimates were compared by gender, age-group, ethnicity and fifths of deprivation.

Results

There were 6184 health checks recorded (2280 invited and 3904 opportunistic) with CVD risk scores recorded for 5359 (87%) participants. There were 17.0% of invited checks and 22.2% of opportunistic health checks with CVD risk score ≥10%; a relative increment of 28% (95% confidence interval: 14–44%, P < 0.001). In the most deprived quintile, 15.3% of invited checks and 22.4% of opportunistic checks were associated with elevated CVD risk (adjusted odds ratio: 1.94, 1.37–2.74, P  < 0.001).

Conclusions

Respondents at health checks performed opportunistically are at higher risk of cardiovascular disease than those participating in response to a standard invitation letter, potentially reducing the effect of uptake inequalities.

Enhanced Invitations Using the Question-Behavior Effect and Financial Incentives to Promote Health Check Uptake in Primary Care

Background

Uptake of health checks for cardiovascular risk assessment in primary care in England is lower than anticipated. The question-behavior effect (QBE) may offer a simple, scalable intervention to increase health check uptake.

Purpose

The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of enhanced invitation methods employing the QBE, with or without a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, at increasing uptake of health checks.

Methods

We conducted a three-arm randomized trial including all patients at 18 general practices in two London boroughs, who were invited for health checks from July 2013 to December 2014. Participants were randomized to three trial arms: (i) Standard health check invitation letter only; (ii) QBE questionnaire followed by standard invitation letter; or (iii) QBE questionnaire with offer of a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, followed by standard invitation letter. In intention to treat analysis, the primary outcome of completion of health check within 6 months of invitation, was evaluated using a p value of .0167 for significance.

Results

12,459 participants were randomized. Health check uptake was evaluated for 12,052 (97%) with outcome data collected. Health check uptake within 6 months of invitation was: standard invitation, 590 / 4,095 (14.41%); QBE questionnaire, 630 / 3,988 (15.80%); QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 629 / 3,969 (15.85%). Difference following QBE questionnaire, 1.43% (95% confidence interval -0.12 to 2.97%, p = .070); following QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 1.52% (-0.03 to 3.07%, p = .054).

Conclusions

Uptake of health checks following a standard invitation was low and not significantly increased through enhanced invitation methods using the QBE.

Antidepressant utilisation and incidence of weight gain during 10 years' follow-up: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long term association between antidepressant prescribing and body weight.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

General practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2004-14.

PARTICIPANTS

136 762 men and 157 957 women with three or more records for body mass index (BMI).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcomes were antidepressant prescribing, incidence of ≥5% increase in body weight, and transition to overweight or obesity. Adjusted rate ratios were estimated from a Poisson model adjusting for age, sex, depression recording, comorbidity, coprescribing of antiepileptics or antipsychotics, deprivation, smoking, and advice on diet.

RESULTS

In the year of study entry, 17 803 (13.0%) men and 35 307 (22.4%) women with a mean age of 51.5 years (SD 16.6 years) were prescribed antidepressants. During 1 836 452 person years of follow-up, the incidence of new episodes of ≥5 weight gain in participants not prescribed antidepressants was 8.1 per 100 person years and in participants prescribed antidepressants was 11.2 per 100 person years (adjusted rate ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.22, P<0.001). The risk of weight gain remained increased during at least six years of follow-up. In the second year of treatment the number of participants treated with antidepressants for one year for one additional episode of ≥5% weight gain was 27 (95% confidence interval 25 to 29). In people who were initially of normal weight, the adjusted rate ratio for transition to overweight or obesity was 1.29 (1.25 to 1.34); in people who were initially overweight, the adjusted rate ratio for transition to obesity was 1.29 (1.25 to 1.33). Associations may not be causal, and residual confounding might contribute to overestimation of associations.

CONCLUSION

Widespread utilisation of antidepressants may be contributing to long term increased risk of weight gain at population level. The potential for weight gain should be considered when antidepressant treatment is indicated.

Multiple risk factor control, mortality and cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple risk factor control (MRFC) at reducing mortality and cardiovascular events in diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in clinical practice.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Primary care database in the UK, linked with inpatient and mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants aged 40-79 years with type 2 diabetes and valid serum creatinine measurements, including 11 431 participants with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate: eGFR 15-59 mL/min/1.73 m²) and 36 429 participants with non-CKD (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m²).

EXPOSURES

MRFC consisted of four components: Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <53 mmol/mol (<7.0%), blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg, total cholesterol <5 mmol/L and no smoking. The main exposure variable was the number of risk factors controlled at baseline.

OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the overall participants. Cardiovascular events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, in participants limited to those without a history of cardiovascular diseases at baseline.

RESULTS

In participants with CKD, 37% or 13% met three or four MRFC criteria, respectively. Increasing numbers of risk factors controlled were associated with lower relative hazards for all outcomes studied compared with those meeting no or one criterion. For participants with CKD meeting four criteria, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) and the adjusted subdistribution HR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.70), considering a competing risk of non-cardiovascular death. Participants meeting four criteria also had lower relative hazards for coronary heart disease (adjusted subdistribution HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91) and stroke (0.63, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.89), considering death as a competing risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MRFC may lower the increased risks for mortality and cardiovascular events in people with diabetes and CKD. Further research is needed to evaluate appropriateness of MRFC according to individual participants' health status for improved management of cardiovascular risks in this population.

Enhanced invitation methods and uptake of health checks in primary care: randomised controlled trial and cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

A national programme of health checks to identify risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is being rolled out but is encountering difficulties because of low uptake.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of an enhanced invitation method using the question-behaviour effect (QBE), with or without the offer of a financial incentive to return the QBE questionnaire, at increasing the uptake of health checks. The research went on to evaluate the reasons for the low uptake of invitations and compare the case mix for invited and opportunistic health checks.

DESIGN

Three-arm randomised trial and cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

All participants invited for a health check from 18 general practices. Individual participants were randomised.

INTERVENTIONS

(1) Standard health check invitation only; (2) QBE questionnaire followed by a standard invitation; and (3) QBE questionnaire with offer of a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, followed by a standard invitation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was completion of the health check within 6 months of invitation. A p-value of 0.0167 was used for significance. In the cohort study of all health checks completed during the study period, the case mix was compared for participants responding to invitations and those receiving 'opportunistic' health checks. Participants were not aware that several types of invitation were in use. The research team were blind to trial arm allocation at outcome data extraction.

RESULTS

In total, 12,459 participants were included in the trial and health check uptake was evaluated for 12,052 participants for whom outcome data were collected. Health check uptake was as follows: standard invitation, 590 out of 4095 (14.41%); QBE questionnaire, 630 out of 3988 (15.80%); QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 629 out of 3969 (15.85%). The increase in uptake associated with the QBE questionnaire was 1.43% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.12% to 2.97%; p = 0.070] and the increase in uptake associated with the QBE questionnaire and offer of financial incentive was 1.52% (95% CI -0.03% to 3.07%; p = 0.054). The difference in uptake associated with the offer of an incentive to return the QBE questionnaire was -0.01% (95% CI -1.59% to 1.58%; p = 0.995). During the study period, 58% of health check cardiovascular risk assessments did not follow a trial invitation. People who received an 'opportunistic' health check had greater odds of a ≥ 10% CVD risk than those who received an invited health check (adjusted odds ratio 1.70, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.99; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Uptake of a health check following an invitation letter is low and is not increased through an enhanced invitation method using the QBE. The offer of a £5 incentive did not increase the rate of return of the QBE questionnaire. A high proportion of all health checks are performed opportunistically and not in response to a standard invitation letter. Participants receiving opportunistic checks are at higher risk of CVD than those responding to standard invitations. Future research should aim to increase the accessibility of preventative medical interventions to increase uptake. Research should also explore the wider use of electronic health records in delivering efficient trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN42856343.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 84. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.