FineMAV: prioritizing candidate genetic variants driving local adaptations in human populations

We present a new method, Fine-Mapping of Adaptive Variation (FineMAV), which combines population differentiation, derived allele frequency, and molecular functionality to prioritize positively selected candidate variants for functional follow-up. We calibrate and test FineMAV using eight experimentally validated "gold standard" positively selected variants and simulations. FineMAV has good sensitivity and a low false discovery rate. Applying FineMAV to the 1000 Genomes Project Phase 3 SNP dataset, we report many novel selected variants, including ones in TGM3 and PRSS53 associated with hair phenotypes that we validate using available independent data. FineMAV is widely applicable to sequence data from both human and other species.

MMAB, a novel candidate gene to be screened in the molecular diagnosis of Mevalonate Kinase Deficiency

Mevalonate kinase deficiency (MKD) is an autosomal recessive inflammatory disease. Mutations in MVK gene are associated with MKD with modest genotype-phenotype correlation. In spite of recent guidelines indicating specific MVK mutations for the more severe form or the milder one, little is known about MVK variability within and between populations. The aim of this work is to provide supplementary information about MVK variability useful in the molecular diagnosis of MKD, as well as to unravel the presence of novel genes potentially involved as involved in the clinical heterogeneity of MKD phenotype. We used a population-based approach, coupled with Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD) score, to analyze the level of genetic variability for common and putatively deleterious MVK variants. We also performed Exome screening with the Illumina Human Exome Bead Chip on 21 MKD patients to double-check our in silico findings. Haplotype block detection in different populations revealed the existence of two blocks in MVK; interestingly, the first haploblock comprises the promoter region shared with MMAB gene. Analyses of MMAB and MVK genetic variants in 21 MKD patients strengthen our observations showing a novel scenario in which the same mutations commonly associated with MKD are found coupled with different combination of MMAB rs7134594 SNP was already described as associated with HDL cholesterol level and present in the haploblock promoter region. The rs7134594 SNP is reported as an eQTL for MVK and MMAB. Hypothesizing the presence of genetic variants modulating the complex phenotypic spectrum of MKD, we suggest that future directions in screening for MKD pathogenic variants should focus both MMAB and MVK genes.

Continuity and Admixture in the Last Five Millennia of Levantine History from Ancient Canaanite and Present-Day Lebanese Genome Sequences

The Canaanites inhabited the Levant region during the Bronze Age and established a culture that became influential in the Near East and beyond. However, the Canaanites, unlike most other ancient Near Easterners of this period, left few surviving textual records and thus their origin and relationship to ancient and present-day populations remain unclear. In this study, we sequenced five whole genomes from ∼3,700-year-old individuals from the city of Sidon, a major Canaanite city-state on the Eastern Mediterranean coast. We also sequenced the genomes of 99 individuals from present-day Lebanon to catalog modern Levantine genetic diversity. We find that a Bronze Age Canaanite-related ancestry was widespread in the region, shared among urban populations inhabiting the coast (Sidon) and inland populations (Jordan) who likely lived in farming societies or were pastoral nomads. This Canaanite-related ancestry derived from mixture between local Neolithic populations and eastern migrants genetically related to Chalcolithic Iranians. We estimate, using linkage-disequilibrium decay patterns, that admixture occurred 6,600–3,550 years ago, coinciding with recorded massive population movements in Mesopotamia during the mid-Holocene. We show that present-day Lebanese derive most of their ancestry from a Canaanite-related population, which therefore implies substantial genetic continuity in the Levant since at least the Bronze Age. In addition, we find Eurasian ancestry in the Lebanese not present in Bronze Age or earlier Levantines. We estimate that this Eurasian ancestry arrived in the Levant around 3,750–2,170 years ago during a period of successive conquests by distant populations.

"Like sugar in milk": reconstructing the genetic history of the Parsi population

BACKGROUND

The Parsis are one of the smallest religious communities in the world. To understand the population structure and demographic history of this group in detail, we analyzed Indian and Pakistani Parsi populations using high-resolution genetic variation data on autosomal and uniparental loci (Y-chromosomal and mitochondrial DNA). Additionally, we also assayed mitochondrial DNA polymorphisms among ancient Parsi DNA samples excavated from Sanjan, in present day Gujarat, the place of their original settlement in India.

RESULTS

Among present-day populations, the Parsis are genetically closest to Iranian and the Caucasus populations rather than their South Asian neighbors. They also share the highest number of haplotypes with present-day Iranians and we estimate that the admixture of the Parsis with Indian populations occurred ~1,200 years ago. Enriched homozygosity in the Parsi reflects their recent isolation and inbreeding. We also observed 48% South-Asian-specific mitochondrial lineages among the ancient samples, which might have resulted from the assimilation of local females during the initial settlement. Finally, we show that Parsis are genetically closer to Neolithic Iranians than to modern Iranians, who have witnessed a more recent wave of admixture from the Near East.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are consistent with the historically-recorded migration of the Parsi populations to South Asia in the 7th century and in agreement with their assimilation into the Indian sub-continent's population and cultural milieu "like sugar in milk". Moreover, in a wider context our results support a major demographic transition in West Asia due to the Islamic conquest.

Chad Genetic Diversity Reveals an African History Marked by Multiple Holocene Eurasian Migrations

Understanding human genetic diversity in Africa is important for interpreting the evolution of all humans, yet vast regions in Africa, such as Chad, remain genetically poorly investigated. Here, we use genotype data from 480 samples from Chad, the Near East, and southern Europe, as well as whole-genome sequencing from 19 of them, to show that many populations today derive their genomes from ancient African-Eurasian admixtures. We found evidence of early Eurasian backflow to Africa in people speaking the unclassified isolate Laal language in southern Chad and estimate from linkage-disequilibrium decay that this occurred 4,750–7,200 years ago. It brought to Africa a Y chromosome lineage (R1b-V88) whose closest relatives are widespread in present-day Eurasia; we estimate from sequence data that the Chad R1b-V88 Y chromosomes coalesced 5,700–7,300 years ago. This migration could thus have originated among Near Eastern farmers during the African Humid Period. We also found that the previously documented Eurasian backflow into Africa, which occurred ∼3,000 years ago and was thought to be mostly limited to East Africa, had a more westward impact affecting populations in northern Chad, such as the Toubou, who have 20%–30% Eurasian ancestry today. We observed a decline in heterozygosity in admixed Africans and found that the Eurasian admixture can bias inferences on their coalescent history and confound genetic signals from adaptation and archaic introgression.

A reference panel of 64,976 haplotypes for genotype imputation

We describe a reference panel of 64,976 human haplotypes at 39,235,157 SNPs constructed using whole-genome sequence data from 20 studies of predominantly European ancestry. Using this resource leads to accurate genotype imputation at minor allele frequencies as low as 0.1% and a large increase in the number of SNPs tested in association studies, and it can help to discover and refine causal loci. We describe remote server resources that allow researchers to carry out imputation and phasing consistently and efficiently.

Wide distribution and altitude correlation of an archaic high-altitude-adaptive EPAS1 haplotype in the Himalayas

High-altitude adaptation in Tibetans is influenced by introgression of a 32.7-kb haplotype from the Denisovans, an extinct branch of archaic humans, lying within the endothelial PAS domain protein 1 (EPAS1), and has also been reported in Sherpa. We genotyped 19 variants in this genomic region in 1507 Eurasian individuals, including 1188 from Bhutan and Nepal residing at altitudes between 86 and 4550 m above sea level. Derived alleles for five SNPs characterizing the core Denisovan haplotype (AGGAA) were present at high frequency not only in Tibetans and Sherpa, but also among many populations from the Himalayas, showing a significant correlation with altitude (Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.75, p value 3.9 × 10⁻¹¹). Seven East- and South-Asian 1000 Genomes Project individuals shared the Denisovan haplotype extending beyond the 32-kb region, enabling us to refine the haplotype structure and identify a candidate regulatory variant (rs370299814) that might be interacting in an additive manner with the derived G allele of rs150877473, the variant previously associated with high-altitude adaptation in Tibetans. Denisovan-derived alleles were also observed at frequencies of 3–14 % in the 1000 Genomes Project African samples. The closest African haplotype is, however, separated from the Asian high-altitude haplotype by 22 mutations whereas only three mutations, including rs150877473, separate the Asians from the Denisovan, consistent with distant shared ancestry for African and Asian haplotypes and Denisovan adaptive introgression.

Understanding the role of personality and alexithymia in food preferences and PROP taste perception

Taste perception and food preferences are influenced by a variety of factors, including personality characteristics. The aims of this study were to examine the role of personality characteristics, such as alexithymia (a personality construct characterized by inability to identify, describe, and work with one's own feelings), in: 1) taste responses to the bitter genetic taste-marker PROP and 2) food liking. We studied 649 healthy subjects residing in six genetically-isolated villages of Northeast Italy. Data on PROP taste responsiveness, food liking, personality characteristics and TAS2R28 genotypes were collected. Results showed that PROP non-tasters had higher alexithymia scores than PROP tasters. Moreover, the presence of alexithymia in heterozygous individuals for the rs1726886 polymorphism of the TAS2R38 gene was associated with a reduction in the perceived intensity of PROP. Finally, higher alexithymia scores were associated with liking of alcohol, sweets and fats/meats whereas lower alexithymia scores were related to liking of vegetables, condiments and strong cheeses, Measures of temperament, character, anxiety and depression were also related to food liking. Our findings suggest that: 1) alexithymia, in addition to the TAS2R38 polymorphism, may play a role in responsiveness to the aversive and bitter taste of PROP; and 2) alexithymia, in combination with other personality traits, may provide important insights for better understanding food liking.

Ancient DNA and the rewriting of human history: be sparing with Occam's razor

Ancient DNA research is revealing a human history far more complex than that inferred from parsimonious models based on modern DNA. Here, we review some of the key events in the peopling of the world in the light of the findings of work on ancient DNA.

Early modern human dispersal from Africa: genomic evidence for multiple waves of migration

Background

Anthropological and genetic data agree in indicating the African continent as the main place of origin for anatomically modern humans. However, it is unclear whether early modern humans left Africa through a single, major process, dispersing simultaneously over Asia and Europe, or in two main waves, first through the Arab Peninsula into southern Asia and Oceania, and later through a northern route crossing the Levant.

Results

Here, we show that accurate genomic estimates of the divergence times between European and African populations are more recent than those between Australo-Melanesia and Africa and incompatible with the effects of a single dispersal. This difference cannot possibly be accounted for by the effects of either hybridization with archaic human forms in Australo-Melanesia or back migration from Europe into Africa. Furthermore, in several populations of Asia we found evidence for relatively recent genetic admixture events, which could have obscured the signatures of the earliest processes.

Conclusions

We conclude that the hypothesis of a single major human dispersal from Africa appears hardly compatible with the observed historical and geographical patterns of genome diversity and that Australo-Melanesian populations seem still to retain a genomic signature of a more ancient divergence from Africa

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13323-015-0030-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Population genetic differentiation of height and body mass index across Europe

Across-nation differences in the mean values for complex traits are common, but the reasons for these differences are unknown. Here we find that many independent loci contribute to population genetic differences in height and body mass index (BMI) in 9,416 individuals across 14 European countries. Using discovery data on over 250,000 individuals and unbiased effect size estimates from 17,500 sibling pairs, we estimate that 24% (95% credible interval (CI) = 9%, 41%) and 8% (95% CI = 4%, 16%) of the captured additive genetic variance for height and BMI, respectively, reflect population genetic differences. Population genetic divergence differed significantly from that in a null model (height, P < 3.94 × 10(-8); BMI, P < 5.95 × 10(-4)), and we find an among-population genetic correlation for tall and slender individuals (r = -0.80, 95% CI = -0.95, -0.60), consistent with correlated selection for both phenotypes. Observed differences in height among populations reflected the predicted genetic means (r = 0.51; P < 0.001), but environmental differences across Europe masked genetic differentiation for BMI (P < 0.58).

Genetic evidence for an origin of the Armenians from Bronze Age mixing of multiple populations

The Armenians are a culturally isolated population who historically inhabited a region in the Near East bounded by the Mediterranean and Black seas and the Caucasus, but remain under-represented in genetic studies and have a complex history including a major geographic displacement during World War I. Here, we analyse genome-wide variation in 173 Armenians and compare them with 78 other worldwide populations. We find that Armenians form a distinctive cluster linking the Near East, Europe, and the Caucasus. We show that Armenian diversity can be explained by several mixtures of Eurasian populations that occurred between ~3000 and ~2000 bce, a period characterized by major population migrations after the domestication of the horse, appearance of chariots, and the rise of advanced civilizations in the Near East. However, genetic signals of population mixture cease after ~1200 bce when Bronze Age civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean world suddenly and violently collapsed. Armenians have since remained isolated and genetic structure within the population developed ~500 years ago when Armenia was divided between the Ottomans and the Safavid Empire in Iran. Finally, we show that Armenians have higher genetic affinity to Neolithic Europeans than other present-day Near Easterners, and that 29% of Armenian ancestry may originate from an ancestral population that is best represented by Neolithic Europeans.

Increased rate of deleterious variants in long runs of homozygosity of an inbred population from Qatar

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to evaluate the fraction of putatively deleterious variants within genomic runs of homozygosity (ROH) regions in an inbred and selected cohort of Qatari individuals.

METHODS

High-density SNP array analysis was performed in 36 individuals, and for 14 of them whole-exome sequencing (WES) was also carried out.

RESULTS

In all individuals, regions characterized by a high (hotspot) or low (coldspot) degree of homozygosity in all the analysed individuals were mapped, and the most frequent hotspot regions were selected. WES data were exploited to identify the single nucleotide variations (SNVs) harboured by genes located within both regions in each individual. Evolutionary conservation-based algorithms were employed to predict the potential deleteriousness of SNVs. The amount of in silico predicted deleterious SNVs was significantly different (p < 0.05) between homozygosity hotspot and coldspot regions.

CONCLUSION

Genes located within ROH hotspot regions contain a significant burden of predicted putatively deleterious variants compared to genes located outside these regions, suggesting inbreeding as a possible mechanism allowing an enrichment of putatively deleterious variants at the homozygous state.

Analysis of functional variants reveals new candidate genes associated with alexithymia

In this study we explored the possible association between 36,915 functional variants and alexithymia, a personality trait characterized by the inability to identify and describe emotions and feelings. From our analysis, variants in the genes ABCB4, TP53AIP1, ARHGAP32 and TMEM88B were identified linked to the alexithymia phenotype.

Assessment of the olfactory function in Italian patients with type 3 von Willebrand disease caused by a homozygous 253 Kb deletion involving VWF and TMEM16B/ANO2

Type 3 Von Willebrand disease is an autosomal recessive disease caused by the virtual absence of the von Willebrand factor (VWF). A rare 253 kb gene deletion on chromosome 12, identified only in Italian and German families, involves both the VWF gene and the N-terminus of the neighbouring TMEM16B/ANO2 gene, a member of the family named transmembrane 16 (TMEM16) or anoctamin (ANO). TMEM16B is a calcium-activated chloride channel expressed in the olfactory epithelium. As a patient homozygous for the 253 kb deletion has been reported to have an olfactory impairment possibly related to the partial deletion of TMEM16B, we assessed the olfactory function in other patients using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). The average UPSIT score of 4 homozygous patients was significantly lower than that of 5 healthy subjects with similar sex, age and education. However, 4 other members of the same family, 3 heterozygous for the deletion and 1 wild type, had a slightly reduced olfactory function indicating that socio-cultural or other factors were likely to be responsible for the observed difference. These results show that the ability to identify odorants of the homozygous patients for the deletion was not significantly different from that of the other members of the family, showing that the 253 kb deletion does not affect the olfactory performance. As other genes may compensate for the lack of TMEM16B, we identified some predicted functional partners from in silico studies of the protein-protein network of TMEM16B. Calculation of diversity for the corresponding genes for individuals of the 1000 Genomes Project showed that TMEM16B has the highest level of diversity among all genes of the network, indicating that TMEM16B may not be under purifying selection and suggesting that other genes in the network could compensate for its function for olfactory ability.

Genetic landscape of populations along the Silk Road: admixture and migration patterns

Background

The ancient Silk Road has been a trading route between Europe and Central Asia from the 2^nd century BCE to the 15^th century CE. While most populations on this route have been characterized, the genetic background of others remains poorly understood, and little is known about past migration patterns. The scientific expedition “Marco Polo” has recently collected genetic and phenotypic data in six regions (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan) along the Silk Road to study the genetics of a number of phenotypes.

Results

We characterized the genetic structure of these populations within a worldwide context. We observed a West-East subdivision albeit the existence of a genetic component shared within Central Asia and nearby populations from Europe and Near East. We observed a contribution of up to 50% from Europe and Asia to most of the populations that have been analyzed. The contribution from Asia dates back to ~25 generations and is limited to the Eastern Silk Road. Time and direction of this contribution are consistent with the Mongolian expansion era.

Conclusions

We clarified the genetic structure of six populations from Central Asia and suggested a complex pattern of gene flow among them. We provided a map of migration events in time and space and we quantified exchanges among populations. Altogether these novel findings will support the future studies aimed at understanding the genetics of the phenotypes that have been collected during the Marco Polo campaign, they will provide insights into the history of these populations, and they will be useful to reconstruct the developments and events that have shaped modern Eurasians genomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12863-014-0131-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Insights into the origin of rare haplogroup C3* Y chromosomes in South America from high-density autosomal SNP genotyping

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Revisited the previous discovery of a rare Y haplogroup in two Ecuador populations.

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Hypotheses for the origin of the haplogroup tested with autosomal SNP genotype data.

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We favoured one of the three hypotheses, ‘founder plus drift’.

The colonization of Americas is thought to have occurred 15–20 thousand years ago (Kya), with little or no subsequent migration into South America until the European expansions beginning 0.5 Kya. Recently, however, haplogroup C3* Y chromosomes were discovered in two nearby Native American populations from Ecuador. Since this haplogroup is otherwise nearly absent from the Americas but is common in East Asia, and an archaeological link between Ecuador and Japan is known from 6 Kya, an additional migration 6 Kya was suggested. Here, we have generated high-density autosomal SNP genotypes from the Ecuadorian populations and compared them with genotypes from East Asia and elsewhere to evaluate three hypotheses: a recent migration from Japan, a single pulse of migration from Japan 6 Kya, and no migration after the First Americans. First, using forward-time simulations and an appropriate demographic model, we investigated our power to detect both ancient and recent gene flow at different levels. Second, we analyzed 207,321 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 16 Ecuadorian individuals, comparing them with populations from the HGDP panel using descriptive and formal tests for admixture. Our simulations revealed good power to detect recent admixture, and that ≥5% admixture 6 Kya ago could be detected. However, in the experimental data we saw no evidence of gene flow from Japan to Ecuador. In summary, we can exclude recent migration and probably admixture 6 Kya as the source of the C3* Y chromosomes in Ecuador, and thus suggest that they represent a rare founding lineage lost by drift elsewhere.

Genetic characterization of Greek population isolates reveals strong genetic drift at missense and trait-associated variants

Isolated populations are emerging as a powerful study design in the search for low-frequency and rare variant associations with complex phenotypes. Here we genotype 2,296 samples from two isolated Greek populations, the Pomak villages (HELIC-Pomak) in the North of Greece and the Mylopotamos villages (HELIC-MANOLIS) in Crete. We compare their genomic characteristics to the general Greek population and establish them as genetic isolates. In the MANOLIS cohort, we observe an enrichment of missense variants among the variants that have drifted up in frequency by more than fivefold. In the Pomak cohort, we find novel associations at variants on chr11p15.4 showing large allele frequency increases (from 0.2% in the general Greek population to 4.6% in the isolate) with haematological traits, for example, with mean corpuscular volume (rs7116019, P=2.3 × 10(-26)). We replicate this association in a second set of Pomak samples (combined P=2.0 × 10(-36)). We demonstrate significant power gains in detecting medical trait associations.

Consanguinity and hereditary hearing loss in Qatar

Qatar is a sovereign state located on the Eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula in the Persian Gulf. Its native population consists of 3 major subgroups: people of Arabian origin or Bedouins, those from an Eastern or Persian ancestry and individuals with African admixture. Historically, all types of consanguineous marriages have been and still are common in the Qatari population, particularly among first and double-first cousins. Thus, there is a higher risk for most inherited diseases including hereditary hearing loss (HHL). In particular, a hearing loss prevalence of 5.2% has been reported in Qatar, with parental consanguinity being more common among affected individuals as compared with unaffected ones. Our recent molecular results confirm a high homogeneity and level of inbreeding in Qatari HHL patients. Among all HHL genes, GJB2, the major player worldwide, accounts for a minor proportion of cases and at least 3 additional genes have been found to be mutated in Qatari patients. Interestingly, one gene, BDP1, has been described to cause HHL only in this country. These results point towards an unexpected level of genetic heterogeneity despite the high level of inbreeding. This review provides an up-to-date picture of HHL in Qatar and of the impact of consanguinity on this disease.

Insight into genetic determinants of resting heart rate

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggested that resting heart rate (RHR) might be an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Nonetheless, the interrelation between RHR and cardiovascular diseases is not clear. In order to resolve this puzzle, the importance of genetic determinants of RHR has been recently suggested, but it needs to be further investigated.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of common genetic variations on RHR using Genome Wide Association Study.

METHODS

We performed a Genome Wide Association Study in an isolated population cohort of 1737 individuals, the Italian Network on Genetic Isolates - Friuli Venezia Giulia (INGI-FVG). Moreover, a haplotype analysis was performed. A regression tree analysis was run to highlight the effect of each haplotype combination on the phenotype.

RESULTS

A significant level of association (p<5 × 10(-8)) was detected for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in two genes expressed in the heart: MAML1 and CANX. Founding that the three different variants of the haplotype, which encompass both genes, yielded a phenotypic correlation. Indeed, a haplotype in homozygosity is significantly associated with the lower quartile of RHR (RHR ≤ 58 bpm). Moreover no significant association was found between cardiovascular risk factors and the different haplotype combinations.

CONCLUSION

Mastermind-like 1 and Calnexin were found to be associated with RHR. We demonstrated a relation between a haplotype and the lower quartile of RHR in our populations. Our findings highlight that genetic determinants of RHR may be implicated in determining cardiovascular diseases and could allow a better risk stratification.

A population-based approach to study the impact of PROP perception on food liking in populations along the Silk Road

Taste is one of the main factors determining food choices. Differences in PROP bitter taste perception have been implicated in individual differences in food preferences and selection. The present study examined associations between, PROP phenotypes, self-reported food liking and TAS2R38 polymorphisms, the major gene implicated in PROP bitterness, in six different populations of the Caucasus and Central Asia, located along the ancient Silk Road. Differences in the distribution of PROP phenotypes across populations were detected, with a higher frequency of super tasters in Tajikistan (31.3%) and Armenia (39.0%) and a higher frequency of non tasters in Georgia (50.9%). While no relationships were observed between PROP phenotypes and food liking using standard statistical tests, we used an approach based on comparison of distance matrices derived from these data. The first matrix compared the food liking ratings of each population to all others pairwise using the Kruskal-Wallis test (at p<0.00063), and the second one compared the distribution of PROP phenotypes across all populations in a similar manner calculating the chi-square statistic as a distance measure. A strong correlation between the two matrices was found (Mantel test: r = 0.67, p-value = 0.03), suggesting that the pattern of food liking across populations was closely related to the distribution of PROP phenotypes. This same relationship was not observed when TAS2R38 genotypes were substituted for PROP phenotypes in this analysis. Our data suggest that a population-based approach utilizing distance matrices is a useful technique for detecting PROP-related differences in food liking and can be applied to other taste phenotypes.

High variance in reproductive success generates a false signature of a genetic bottleneck in populations of constant size: a simulation study

Background

Demographic bottlenecks can severely reduce the genetic variation of a population or a species. Establishing whether low genetic variation is caused by a bottleneck or a constantly low effective number of individuals is important to understand a species’ ecology and evolution, and it has implications for conservation management. Recent studies have evaluated the power of several statistical methods developed to identify bottlenecks. However, the false positive rate, i.e. the rate with which a bottleneck signal is misidentified in demographically stable populations, has received little attention. We analyse this type of error (type I) in forward computer simulations of stable populations having greater than Poisson variance in reproductive success (i.e., variance in family sizes). The assumption of Poisson variance underlies bottleneck tests, yet it is commonly violated in species with high fecundity.

Results

With large variance in reproductive success (V_k ≥ 40, corresponding to a ratio between effective and census size smaller than 0.1), tests based on allele frequencies, allelic sizes, and DNA sequence polymorphisms (heterozygosity excess, M-ratio, and Tajima’s D test) tend to show erroneous signals of a bottleneck. Similarly, strong evidence of population decline is erroneously detected when ancestral and current population sizes are estimated with the model based method MSVAR.

Conclusions

Our results suggest caution when interpreting the results of bottleneck tests in species showing high variance in reproductive success. Particularly in species with high fecundity, computer simulations are recommended to confirm the occurrence of a population bottleneck.