Replication of Newly Identified Genetic Associations Between Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm and SMYD2, LINC00540, PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335, and ERG

OBJECTIVE

A recently published genome wide association study of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), based on pooled case control data of European ancestry, identified four new loci for AAA: SMYD2 (top single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] rs1795061), LINC00540 (rs9316871), PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335 (rs3827066), and ERG (rs2836411). Of the four, rs1795061 and rs2836411 showed significant heterogeneity across studies and the p value for rs9316871 did not reach the genome wide significance threshold until discovery and replication data were pooled together in that study. The objective of this study was to replicate these newly identified genetic associations for AAA in a US based prospective cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, and a Greece based case control study.

METHODS

ARIC identified 408 clinically diagnosed AAAs among 8 962 individuals of European ancestry during a median of 22 years of follow up. The Greek case control study included 341 AAAs of European ancestry recruited in a tertiary referral centre and 292 geographically and ethnically matched controls recruited from the same institution. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the ARIC data and logistic regression to analyse the Greek data.

RESULTS

In ARIC, rs9316871 and rs3827066 were significantly associated with AAA risk (HR [p] was 0.77 [.004] and 1.22 [.03], respectively), rs2836411 was associated at borderline significance (1.13 [.08]), whereas rs1795061 was not associated (p = .55). In the Greek case control study, rs1795061 and rs2836411 were significantly associated with AAA (OR [p] was 1.66 [< .001] and 1.29 [.04], respectively), whereas rs9316871 was not (p = .81). Genotyping of rs3827066 did not succeed. In the meta-analysis of the two studies, the association for rs9316871and rs2836411 was statistically significant and consistent between the two studies: p = .02 and .007, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between rs9316871and rs2836411 and AAA risk were replicated in the meta-analysis of the two independent cohorts, providing further support for the importance of these loci in the aetiology of AAA.

Plasma Desmosine and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Disease

Background

It is recognized that factors beyond aortic size are important in predicting outcome in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) disease. AAA is characterized by the breakdown of elastin within the aortic tunica media, leading to aortic dilatation and rupture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma desmosine (pDES), an elastin‐specific degradation product, with disease severity and clinical outcome in patients with AAA.

Methods and Results

We measured pDES and serum biomarker concentrations in 507 patients with AAAs (94% men; mean age, 72.4±6.1 years; mean AAA diameter, 48±8 mm) and 162 control subjects (100% men; mean age, 71.5±4.4 years) from 2 observational cohort studies. In the longitudinal cohort study (n=239), we explored the incremental prognostic value of pDES on AAA events. pDES was higher in patients with AAA compared with control subjects (mean±SD: 0.46±0.22 versus 0.33±0.16 ng/mL; P<0.001) and had the strongest correlation with AAA diameter (r=0.39; P<0.0001) of any serum biomarker. After adjustment for baseline AAA diameter, pDES was associated with an AAA event (hazard ratio, 2.03 per SD increase [95% CI, 1.02–4.02]; P=0.044). In addition to AAA diameter, pDES provided incremental improvement in risk stratification (continuous net reclassification improvement, 34.4% [95% CI, −10.8% to 57.5%; P=0.09]; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.00–0.15; P=0.050]).

Conclusions

pDES concentrations predict disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with AAA.

Clinical Trial Registration

http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN76413758.

Leg ischaemia management collaboration (LIMb): study protocol for a prospective cohort study at a single UK centre

INTRODUCTION

Severe limb ischaemia (SLI) is the end stage of peripheral arterial occlusive disease where the viability of the limb is threatened. Around 25% of patients with SLI will ultimately require a major lower limb amputation, which has a substantial adverse impact on quality of life. A newly established rapid-access vascular limb salvage clinic and modern revascularisation techniques may reduce amputation rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the 12-month amputation rate in a contemporary cohort of patients and compare this to a historical cohort. Secondary aims are to investigate the use of frailty and cognitive assessments, and cardiac MRI in risk-stratifying patients with SLI undergoing intervention and establish a biobank for future biomarker analyses.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This single-centre prospective cohort study will recruit patients aged 18-110 years presenting with SLI. Those undergoing intervention will be eligible to undergo additional venepuncture (for biomarker analysis) and/or cardiac MRI. Those aged ≥65 years and undergoing intervention will also be eligible to undergo additional frailty and cognitive assessments. Follow-up will be at 12 and 24 months and subsequently via data linkage with NHS Digital to 10 years postrecruitment. Those undergoing cardiac MRI and/or frailty assessments will receive additional follow-up during the first 12 months to investigate for perioperative myocardial infarction and frailty-related outcomes, respectively. A sample size of 420 patients will be required to detect a 10% reduction in amputation rate in comparison to a similar sized historical cohort, with 90% power and 5% type I error rate. Statistical analysis of this comparison will be by adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression analyses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the UK National Research Ethics Service (19/LO/0132). Results will be disseminated to participants via scientific meetings, peer-reviewed medical journals and social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04027244.

Screening women aged 65 years or over for abdominal aortic aneurysm: a modelling study and health economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes have been established for men in the UK to reduce deaths from AAA rupture. Whether or not screening should be extended to women is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population screening for AAAs in women and compare a range of screening options.

DESIGN

A discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed to provide a clinically realistic model of screening, surveillance, and elective and emergency AAA repair operations. Input parameters specifically for women were employed. The model was run for 10 million women, with parameter uncertainty addressed by probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

SETTING

Population screening in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged ≥ 65 years, followed up to the age of 95 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Invitation to ultrasound screening, followed by surveillance for small AAAs and elective surgical repair for large AAAs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of operations undertaken, AAA-related mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), NHS costs and cost-effectiveness with annual discounting.

DATA SOURCES

AAA surveillance data, National Vascular Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics, trials of elective and emergency AAA surgery, and the NHS Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme (NAAASP).

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of AAA prevalence and, for elective operations, suitability for endovascular aneurysm repair, non-intervention rates, operative mortality and literature reviews for other parameters.

RESULTS

The prevalence of AAAs (aortic diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm) was estimated as 0.43% in women aged 65 years and 1.15% at age 75 years. The corresponding attendance rates following invitation to screening were estimated as 73% and 62%, respectively. The base-case model adopted the same age at screening (65 years), definition of an AAA (diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm), surveillance intervals (1 year for AAAs with diameter of 3.0-4.4 cm, 3 months for AAAs with diameter of 4.5-5.4 cm) and AAA diameter for consideration of surgery (5.5 cm) as in NAAASP for men. Per woman invited to screening, the estimated gain in QALYs was 0.00110, and the incremental cost was £33.99. This gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £31,000 per QALY gained. The corresponding incremental net monetary benefit at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained was -£12.03 (95% uncertainty interval -£27.88 to £22.12). Almost no sensitivity analyses brought the ICER below £20,000 per QALY gained; an exception was doubling the AAA prevalence to 0.86%, which resulted in an ICER of £13,000. Alternative screening options (increasing the screening age to 70 years, lowering the threshold for considering surgery to diameters of 5.0 cm or 4.5 cm, lowering the diameter defining an AAA in women to 2.5 cm and lengthening the surveillance intervals for the smallest AAAs) did not bring the ICER below £20,000 per QALY gained when considered either singly or in combination.

LIMITATIONS

The model for women was not directly validated against empirical data. Some parameters were poorly estimated, potentially lacking relevance or unavailable for women.

CONCLUSION

The accepted criteria for a population-based AAA screening programme in women are not currently met.

FUTURE WORK

A large-scale study is needed of the exact aortic size distribution for women screened at relevant ages. The DES model can be adapted to evaluate screening options in men.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015020444 and CRD42016043227.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

DNA Sequence Variation in ACVR1C Encoding the Activin Receptor-Like Kinase 7 Influences Body Fat Distribution and Protects Against Type 2 Diabetes

A genetic predisposition to higher waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI (WHRadjBMI), a measure of body fat distribution, associates with increased risk for type 2 diabetes. We conducted an exome-wide association study of coding variation in UK Biobank (405,569 individuals) to identify variants that lower WHRadjBMI and protect against type 2 diabetes. We identified four variants in the gene ACVR1C (encoding the activin receptor-like kinase 7 receptor expressed on adipocytes and pancreatic β-cells), which independently associated with reduced WHRadjBMI: Asn150His (-0.09 SD, P = 3.4 × 10-17), Ile195Thr (-0.15 SD, P = 1.0 × 10-9), Ile482Val (-0.019 SD, P = 1.6 × 10-5), and rs72927479 (-0.035 SD, P = 2.6 × 10-12). Carriers of these variants exhibited reduced percent abdominal fat in DEXA imaging. Pooling across all four variants, a 0.2 SD decrease in WHRadjBMI through ACVR1C was associated with a 30% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 0.70, 95% CI 0.63, 0.77; P = 5.6 × 10-13). In an analysis of exome sequences from 55,516 individuals, carriers of predicted damaging variants in ACVR1C were at 54% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.27, 0.81; P = 0.006). These findings indicate that variants predicted to lead to loss of ACVR1C gene function influence body fat distribution and protect from type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes mellitus and abdominal aortic aneurysms: A review of the mechanisms underlying the negative relationship

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus appears to be negatively associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain poorly understood. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive review of the currently understood biological pathways underlying this relationship.

METHODS

A review of the literature ('diabetes' OR 'hyperglycaemia' AND 'aneurysm') was performed and relevant studies grouped into biological pathways.

RESULTS

This review identified a number of biological pathways through which diabetes mellitus may limit the presence, growth and rupture of abdominal aortic aneurysms. These include those influencing extracellular matrix volume, extracellular matrix glycation, the formation of advanced glycation end-products, inflammation, oxidative stress and intraluminal thrombus biology. In addition, there is an increasing evidence to suggest that the medications used to treat diabetes can also limit the development and progression of abdominal aortic aneurysms.

CONCLUSION

The negative association between diabetes and abdominal aortic aneurysm is robust. Future studies should attempt to target the pathways identified in this review to develop novel therapeutic agents aimed at slowing or even halting aneurysm progression.

Analysis of clinical benefit, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND

A third of deaths in the UK from ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are in women. In men, national screening programmes reduce deaths from AAA and are cost-effective. The benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness in offering a similar programme to women have not been formally assessed, and this was the aim of this study.

METHODS

We developed a decision model to assess predefined outcomes of death caused by AAA, life years, quality-adjusted life years, costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a population of women invited to AAA screening versus a population who were not invited to screening. A discrete event simulation model was set up for AAA screening, surveillance, and intervention. Relevant women-specific parameters were obtained from sources including systematic literature reviews, national registry or administrative databases, major AAA surgery trials, and UK National Health Service reference costs.

FINDINGS

AAA screening for women, as currently offered to UK men (at age 65 years, with an AAA diagnosis at an aortic diameter of ≥3·0 cm, and elective repair considered at ≥5·5cm) gave, over 30 years, an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £30 000 (95% CI 12 000-87 000) per quality-adjusted life year gained, with 3900 invitations to screening required to prevent one AAA-related death and an overdiagnosis rate of 33%. A modified option for women (screening at age 70 years, diagnosis at 2·5 cm and repair at 5·0 cm) was estimated to have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £23 000 (9500-71 000) per quality-adjusted life year and 1800 invitations to screening required to prevent one AAA-death, but an overdiagnosis rate of 55%. There was considerable uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness ratio, largely driven by uncertainty about AAA prevalence, the distribution of aortic sizes for women at different ages, and the effect of screening on quality of life.

INTERPRETATION

By UK standards, an AAA screening programme for women, designed to be similar to that used to screen men, is unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research on the aortic diameter distribution in women and potential quality of life decrements associated with screening are needed to assess the full benefits and harms of modified options.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Analysis of predicted loss-of-function variants in UK Biobank identifies variants protective for disease

Less than 3% of protein-coding genetic variants are predicted to result in loss of protein function through the introduction of a stop codon, frameshift, or the disruption of an essential splice site; however, such predicted loss-of-function (pLOF) variants provide insight into effector transcript and direction of biological effect. In >400,000 UK Biobank participants, we conduct association analyses of 3759 pLOF variants with six metabolic traits, six cardiometabolic diseases, and twelve additional diseases. We identified 18 new low-frequency or rare (allele frequency < 5%) pLOF variant-phenotype associations. pLOF variants in the gene GPR151 protect against obesity and type 2 diabetes, in the gene IL33 against asthma and allergic disease, and in the gene IFIH1 against hypothyroidism. In the gene PDE3B, pLOF variants associate with elevated height, improved body fat distribution and protection from coronary artery disease. Our findings prioritize genes for which pharmacologic mimics of pLOF variants may lower risk for disease.

SMYD2 promoter DNA methylation is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and SMYD2 expression in vascular smooth muscle cells

Background

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a deadly cardiovascular disease characterised by the gradual, irreversible dilation of the abdominal aorta. AAA is a complex genetic disease but little is known about the role of epigenetics. Our objective was to determine if global DNA methylation and CpG-specific methylation at known AAA risk loci is associated with AAA, and the functional effects of methylation changes.

Results

We assessed global methylation in peripheral blood mononuclear cell DNA from 92 individuals with AAA and 93 controls using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, identifying hyper-methylation in those with large AAA and a positive linear association with AAA diameter (P < 0.0001, R² = 0.3175).We then determined CpG methylation status of regulatory regions in genes located at AAA risk loci identified in genome-wide association studies, using bisulphite next-generation sequencing (NGS) in vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) taken from aortic tissues of 44 individuals (24 AAAs and 20 controls). In IL6R, 2 CpGs were hyper-methylated (P = 0.0145); in ERG, 13 CpGs were hyper-methylated (P = 0.0005); in SERPINB9, 6 CpGs were hypo-methylated (P = 0.0037) and 1 CpG was hyper-methylated (P = 0.0098); and in SMYD2, 4 CpGs were hypo-methylated (P = 0.0012).RT-qPCR was performed for each differentially methylated gene on mRNA from the same VSMCs and compared with methylation. This analysis revealed downregulation of SMYD2 and SERPINB9 in AAA, and a direct linear relationship between SMYD2 promoter methylation and SMYD2 expression (P = 0.038). Furthermore, downregulation of SMYD2 at the site of aneurysm in the aortic wall was further corroborated in 6 of the same samples used for methylation and gene expression analysis with immunohistochemistry.

Conclusions

This study is the first to assess DNA methylation in VSMCs from individuals with AAA using NGS, and provides further evidence there is an epigenetic basis to AAA. Our study shows that methylation status of the SMYD2 promoter may be linked with decreased SMYD2 expression in disease pathobiology. In support of our work, downregulated SMYD2 has previously been associated with adverse cardiovascular physiology and inflammation, which are both hallmarks of AAA. The identification of such adverse epigenetic modifications could potentially contribute towards the development of epigenetic treatment strategies in the future.

Impact of abdominal aortic aneurysm screening on quality of life

BACKGROUND

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is known to reduce AAA-related mortality; however, the psychological impact of population AAA screening is unclear. The aim was to assess the impact of AAA diagnosis on quality of life (QoL) using data from an established AAA screening programme.

METHODS

Mental and physical QoL scores for men diagnosed with AAA through participation in the English and Welsh AAA screening programmes were compared with no-AAA controls. Participants were identified through the United Kingdom Aneurysm Growth Study (UKAGS), a nationwide prospective cohort study of men with an AAA of less than 55 mm diagnosed through voluntary participation in screening. The UKAGS participants completed QoL questionnaires at the time of screening and annually thereafter.

RESULTS

A transient reduction in mental QoL scores was observed following the diagnosis of AAA, returning to baseline levels after 12 months. Physical QoL remained consistently lower in the AAA cohort. Participants thought about their AAA and the AAA growth progressively less 12 months after the initial screening diagnosis. AAA growth rate had no influence over QoL parameters.

DISCUSSION

This study suggests that screening for AAA does reduce mental QoL; however, this effect is transient (less than 12 months). Men diagnosed with AAA have a consistently worse physical QoL compared with controls.

Genetic Association of Lipids and Lipid Drug Targets With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Meta-analysis

Importance

Risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are largely unknown, which has hampered the development of nonsurgical treatments to alter the natural history of disease.

Objective

To investigate the association between lipid-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and AAA risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Genetic risk scores, composed of lipid trait-associated SNPs, were constructed and tested for their association with AAA using conventional (inverse-variance weighted) mendelian randomization (MR) and data from international AAA genome-wide association studies. Sensitivity analyses to account for potential genetic pleiotropy included MR-Egger and weighted median MR, and multivariable MR method was used to test the independent association of lipids with AAA risk. The association between AAA and SNPs in loci that can act as proxies for drug targets was also assessed. Data collection took place between January 9, 2015, and January 4, 2016. Data analysis was conducted between January 4, 2015, and December 31, 2016.

Exposures

Genetic elevation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The association between genetic risk scores of lipid-associated SNPs and AAA risk, as well as the association between SNPs in lipid drug targets (HMGCR, CETP, and PCSK9) and AAA risk.

Results

Up to 4914 cases and 48 002 controls were included in our analysis. A 1-SD genetic elevation of LDL-C was associated with increased AAA risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; 95% CI, 1.41-1.96; P = 1.1 × 10-9). For HDL-C, a 1-SD increase was associated with reduced AAA risk (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.82; P = 8.3 × 10-5), whereas a 1-SD increase in triglycerides was associated with increased AAA risk (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.38-2.07; P = 5.2 × 10-7). In multivariable MR analysis and both MR-Egger and weighted median MR methods, the association of each lipid fraction with AAA risk remained largely unchanged. The LDL-C-reducing allele of rs12916 in HMGCR was associated with AAA risk (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98; P = .009). The HDL-C-raising allele of rs3764261 in CETP was associated with lower AAA risk (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94; P = 3.7 × 10-7). Finally, the LDL-C-lowering allele of rs11206510 in PCSK9 was weakly associated with a lower AAA risk (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-1.00; P = .04), but a second independent LDL-C-lowering variant in PCSK9 (rs2479409) was not associated with AAA risk (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.92-1.02; P = .28).

Conclusions and Relevance

The MR analyses in this study lend support to the hypothesis that lipids play an important role in the etiology of AAA. Analyses of individual genetic variants used as proxies for drug targets support LDL-C lowering as a potential effective treatment strategy for preventing and managing AAA.

Phenotypic Consequences of a Genetic Predisposition to Enhanced Nitric Oxide Signaling

BACKGROUND

Nitric oxide signaling plays a key role in the regulation of vascular tone and platelet activation. Here, we seek to understand the impact of a genetic predisposition to enhanced nitric oxide signaling on risk for cardiovascular diseases, thus informing the potential utility of pharmacological stimulation of the nitric oxide pathway as a therapeutic strategy.

METHODS

We analyzed the association of common and rare genetic variants in 2 genes that mediate nitric oxide signaling (Nitric Oxide Synthase 3 [NOS3] and Guanylate Cyclase 1, Soluble, Alpha 3 [GUCY1A3]) with a range of human phenotypes. We selected 2 common variants (rs3918226 in NOS3 and rs7692387 in GUCY1A3) known to associate with increased NOS3 and GUCY1A3 expression and reduced mean arterial pressure, combined them into a genetic score, and standardized this exposure to a 5 mm Hg reduction in mean arterial pressure. Using individual-level data from 335 464 participants in the UK Biobank and summary association results from 7 large-scale genome-wide association studies, we examined the effect of this nitric oxide signaling score on cardiometabolic and other diseases. We also examined whether rare loss-of-function mutations in NOS3 and GUCY1A3 were associated with coronary heart disease using gene sequencing data from the Myocardial Infarction Genetics Consortium (n=27 815).

RESULTS

A genetic predisposition to enhanced nitric oxide signaling was associated with reduced risks of coronary heart disease (odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.45; P=5.5*10^-26], peripheral arterial disease (odds ratio 0.42; 95% CI, 0.26-0.68; P=0.0005), and stroke (odds ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37-0.76; P=0.0006). In a mediation analysis, the effect of the genetic score on decreased coronary heart disease risk extended beyond its effect on blood pressure. Conversely, rare variants that inactivate the NOS3 or GUCY1A3 genes were associated with a 23 mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure (95% CI, 12-34; P=5.6*10^-5) and a 3-fold higher risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.29-7.12; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A genetic predisposition to enhanced nitric oxide signaling is associated with reduced risks of coronary heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and stroke. Pharmacological stimulation of nitric oxide signaling may prove useful in the prevention or treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Using multiple classifiers for predicting the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair re-intervention through hybrid feature selection

Feature selection is essential in medical area; however, its process becomes complicated with the presence of censoring which is the unique character of survival analysis. Most survival feature selection methods are based on Cox's proportional hazard model, though machine learning classifiers are preferred. They are less employed in survival analysis due to censoring which prevents them from directly being used to survival data. Among the few work that employed machine learning classifiers, partial logistic artificial neural network with auto-relevance determination is a well-known method that deals with censoring and perform feature selection for survival data. However, it depends on data replication to handle censoring which leads to unbalanced and biased prediction results especially in highly censored data. Other methods cannot deal with high censoring. Therefore, in this article, a new hybrid feature selection method is proposed which presents a solution to high level censoring. It combines support vector machine, neural network, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers using simple majority voting and a new weighted majority voting method based on survival metric to construct a multiple classifier system. The new hybrid feature selection process uses multiple classifier system as a wrapper method and merges it with iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce features. Two endovascular aortic repair datasets containing 91% censored patients collected from two centers were used to construct a multicenter study to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results showed the proposed technique outperformed individual classifiers and variable selection methods based on Cox's model such as Akaike and Bayesian information criterions and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in p values of the log-rank test, sensitivity, and concordance index. This indicates that the proposed classifier is more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention enabling doctor in selecting patients' future follow-up plan.

Feature selection through validation and un-censoring of endovascular repair survival data for predicting the risk of re-intervention

Background

Feature selection (FS) process is essential in the medical area as it reduces the effort and time needed for physicians to measure unnecessary features. Choosing useful variables is a difficult task with the presence of censoring which is the unique characteristic in survival analysis. Most survival FS methods depend on Cox’s proportional hazard model; however, machine learning techniques (MLT) are preferred but not commonly used due to censoring. Techniques that have been proposed to adopt MLT to perform FS with survival data cannot be used with the high level of censoring. The researcher’s previous publications proposed a technique to deal with the high level of censoring. It also used existing FS techniques to reduce dataset dimension. However, in this paper a new FS technique was proposed and combined with feature transformation and the proposed uncensoring approaches to select a reduced set of features and produce a stable predictive model.

Methods

In this paper, a FS technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) MLT is proposed to deal with highly censored Endovascular Aortic Repair (EVAR). Survival data EVAR datasets were collected during 2004 to 2010 from two vascular centers in order to produce a final stable model. They contain almost 91% of censored patients. The proposed approach used a wrapper FS method with ANN to select a reduced subset of features that predict the risk of EVAR re-intervention after 5 years to patients from two different centers located in the United Kingdom, to allow it to be potentially applied to cross-centers predictions. The proposed model is compared with the two popular FS techniques; Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC, BIC) that are used with Cox’s model.

Results

The final model outperforms other methods in distinguishing the high and low risk groups; as they both have concordance index and estimated AUC better than the Cox’s model based on AIC, BIC, Lasso, and SCAD approaches. These models have p-values lower than 0.05, meaning that patients with different risk groups can be separated significantly and those who would need re-intervention can be correctly predicted.

Conclusion

The proposed approach will save time and effort made by physicians to collect unnecessary variables. The final reduced model was able to predict the long-term risk of aortic complications after EVAR. This predictive model can help clinicians decide patients’ future observation plan.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12911-017-0508-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sex differences in mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the UK

BACKGROUND

The UK abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes currently invite only men for screening because the benefit in women is uncertain. Perioperative risk is critical in determining the effectiveness of screening, and contemporary estimates of these risks in women are lacking. The aim of this study was to compare mortality following AAA repair between women and men in the UK.

METHODS

Anonymized data from the UK National Vascular Registry (NVR) for patients undergoing AAA repair (January 2010 to December 2014) were analysed. Co-variables were extracted for analysis by sex. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome measures included mortality by 5-year age groups and duration of hospital stay. Logistic regression was performed to adjust for age, calendar time, AAA diameter and smoking status. NVR-based outcomes were checked against Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data.

RESULTS

A total of 23 245 patients were included (13·0 per cent women). Proportionally, more women than men underwent open repair. For elective open AAA repair, the in-hospital mortality rate was 6·9 per cent in women and 4·0 per cent in men (odds ratio (OR) 1·48, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 2·02; P = 0·014), whereas for elective endovascular AAA repair it was 1·8 per cent in women and 0·7 per cent in men (OR 2·86, 1·72 to 4·74; P < 0·001); the results in HES were similar. For ruptured AAA, there was no sex difference in mortality within the NVR; however, in HES, for ruptured open AAA repair, the in-hospital mortality rate was higher in women (33·6 versus 27·1 per cent; OR 1·36, 1·16 to 1·59; P < 0·001).

CONCLUSION

Women have a higher in-hospital mortality rate than men after elective AAA repair even after adjustment. This higher mortality may have an impact on the benefit offered by any screening programme offered to women.

Protein-Truncating Variants at the Cholesteryl Ester Transfer Protein Gene and Risk for Coronary Heart Disease

RATIONALE

Therapies that inhibit CETP (cholesteryl ester transfer protein) have failed to demonstrate a reduction in risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Human DNA sequence variants that truncate the CETP gene may provide insight into the efficacy of CETP inhibition.

OBJECTIVE

To test whether protein-truncating variants (PTVs) at the CETP gene were associated with plasma lipid levels and CHD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We sequenced the exons of the CETP gene in 58 469 participants from 12 case-control studies (18 817 CHD cases, 39 652 CHD-free controls). We defined PTV as those that lead to a premature stop, disrupt canonical splice sites, or lead to insertions/deletions that shift frame. We also genotyped 1 Japanese-specific PTV in 27561 participants from 3 case-control studies (14 286 CHD cases, 13 275 CHD-free controls). We tested association of CETP PTV carrier status with both plasma lipids and CHD. Among 58 469 participants with CETP gene-sequencing data available, average age was 51.5 years and 43% were women; 1 in 975 participants carried a PTV at the CETP gene. Compared with noncarriers, carriers of PTV at CETP had higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (effect size, 22.6 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, 18-27; P<1.0×10-4), lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-12.2 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -23 to -0.98; P=0.033), and lower triglycerides (-6.3%; 95% confidence interval, -12 to -0.22; P=0.043). CETP PTV carrier status was associated with reduced risk for CHD (summary odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.90; P=5.1×10-3).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with noncarriers, carriers of PTV at CETP displayed higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower triglycerides, and lower risk for CHD.

Association Between Telomere Length and Risk of Cancer and Non-Neoplastic Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study

IMPORTANCE

The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases.

DATA SOURCES

Genomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015.

STUDY SELECTION

GWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation.

RESULTS

Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.05-0.15]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.

Cardiovascular Risk Reduction is Important for Improving Patient and Graft Survival After Ligation and Bypass Surgery for Popliteal Artery Aneurysm

OBJECTIVES

To report outcomes following ligation and bypass (LGB) surgery for popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) and study factors influencing patient and graft survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of patients undergoing LGB surgery for PAA between September 1999 and August 2012 at a tertiary referral vascular unit was performed. Primary graft patency (PGP), primary-assisted graft patency (PAGP), and secondary graft patency (SGP) rates were calculated using survival analyses. Patient, graft aneurysm-free survival (GAFS), aneurysm reperfusion-free survival (ARFS), and amputation-free survival (AFS) rates were also calculated. Log-rank testing and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to perform univariate and multivariate analysis of influencing factors, respectively.

RESULTS

Eighty-four LGB repairs in 69 patients (mean age 71.3 years, 68 males) were available for study. The 5-year PGP, PAGP, SGP, and patient survival rates were 58.1%, 84.4%, 85.2%, and 81.1%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the principal determinants of PGP were urgency of operation ( P = .009) and smoking status ( P = .019). The principal determinants of PAGP were hyperlipidemia status ( P = .048) and of SGP were hyperlipidemia ( P = .042) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) status ( P = .045). The principal determinants of patient survival were previous myocardial infarction ( P = .004) and CVD ( P = .001). The 5-year GAFS, ARFS, and AFS rates were 87.9%, 91.6%, and 96.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that traditional cardiovascular risk factors, such as a smoking and ischemic heart disease, are the most important predictors of early graft failure and patient death following LGB surgery for PAA.

Association of Rare and Common Variation in the Lipoprotein Lipase Gene With Coronary Artery Disease

IMPORTANCE

The activity of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) is the rate-determining step in clearing triglyceride-rich lipoproteins from the circulation. Mutations that damage the LPL gene (LPL) lead to lifelong deficiency in enzymatic activity and can provide insight into the relationship of LPL to human disease.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether rare and/or common variants in LPL are associated with early-onset coronary artery disease (CAD).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In a cross-sectional study, LPL was sequenced in 10 CAD case-control cohorts of the multinational Myocardial Infarction Genetics Consortium and a nested CAD case-control cohort of the Geisinger Health System DiscovEHR cohort between 2010 and 2015. Common variants were genotyped in up to 305 699 individuals of the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium and up to 120 600 individuals of the CARDIoGRAM Exome Consortium between 2012 and 2014. Study-specific estimates were pooled via meta-analysis.

EXPOSURES

Rare damaging mutations in LPL included loss-of-function variants and missense variants annotated as pathogenic in a human genetics database or predicted to be damaging by computer prediction algorithms trained to identify mutations that impair protein function. Common variants in the LPL gene region included those independently associated with circulating triglyceride levels.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Circulating lipid levels and CAD.

RESULTS

Among 46 891 individuals with LPL gene sequencing data available, the mean (SD) age was 50 (12.6) years and 51% were female. A total of 188 participants (0.40%; 95% CI, 0.35%-0.46%) carried a damaging mutation in LPL, including 105 of 32 646 control participants (0.32%) and 83 of 14 245 participants with early-onset CAD (0.58%). Compared with 46 703 noncarriers, the 188 heterozygous carriers of an LPL damaging mutation displayed higher plasma triglyceride levels (19.6 mg/dL; 95% CI, 4.6-34.6 mg/dL) and higher odds of CAD (odds ratio = 1.84; 95% CI, 1.35-2.51; P < .001). An analysis of 6 common LPL variants resulted in an odds ratio for CAD of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.39-1.64; P = 1.1 × 10-22) per 1-SD increase in triglycerides.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The presence of rare damaging mutations in LPL was significantly associated with higher triglyceride levels and presence of coronary artery disease. However, further research is needed to assess whether there are causal mechanisms by which heterozygous lipoprotein lipase deficiency could lead to coronary artery disease.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm-an independent disease to atherosclerosis?

Atherosclerosis and abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) are multifactorial and polygenic diseases with known environmental and genetic risk factors that contribute toward disease development. Atherosclerosis represents an important independent risk factor for AAA, as people with AAA often have atherosclerosis. Studies have shown that comorbidity is usually between ~25% and 55%, but it is still not fully known whether this association is causal or a result of common shared risk profiles. Most recent epidemiological, clinical, and biological evidence suggests that the two pathologies are more distinct than traditionally thought. For instance diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity are high risk for atherosclerosis development but are not as pronounced in AAA, whereas smoking, gender, and ethnicity are particularly high risk for AAA but less so for atherosclerosis. In addition, genetic and epigenetic studies have identified independent risk loci involved in AAA susceptibility that are not associated with other cardiovascular diseases, and research on important common cardiovascular biomarkers has illustrated discrepancies in those with AAA.