Additional Analytical Support for a New Method to Compute the Likelihood of Diversification Models

Molecular phylogenies have been increasingly recognized as an important source of information on species diversification. For many models of macroevolution, analytical likelihood formulas have been derived to infer macroevolutionary parameters from phylogenies. A few years ago, a general framework to numerically compute such likelihood formulas was proposed, which accommodates models that allow speciation and/or extinction rates to depend on diversity. This framework calculates the likelihood as the probability of the diversification process being consistent with the phylogeny from the root to the tips. However, while some readers found the framework presented in Etienne et al. (Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 279(1732):1300-1309, 2012) convincing, others still questioned it (personal communication), despite numerical evidence that for special cases the framework yields the same (i.e., within double precision) numerical value for the likelihood as analytical formulas do that were independently derived for these special cases. Here we prove analytically that the likelihoods calculated in the new framework are correct for all special cases with known analytical likelihood formula. Our results thus add substantial mathematical support for the overall coherence of the general framework.

Transient local adaptation and source-sink dynamics in experimental populations experiencing spatially heterogeneous environments

Local adaptation is determined by the strength of selection and the level of gene flow within heterogeneous landscapes. The presence of benign habitat can act as an evolutionary stepping stone for local adaptation to challenging environments by providing the necessary genetic variation. At the same time, migration load from benign habitats will hinder adaptation. In a community context, interspecific competition is expected to select against maladapted migrants, hence reducing migration load and facilitating adaptation. As the interplay between competition and spatial heterogeneity on the joint ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations is poorly understood, we performed an evolutionary experiment using the herbivore spider mite Tetranychus urticae as a model. We studied the species's demography and local adaptation in a challenging environment that consisted of an initial sink (pepper plants) and/or a more benign environment (cucumber plants). Half of the experimental populations were exposed to a competitor, the congeneric T. ludeni. We show that while spider mites only adapted to the challenging pepper environment when it was spatially interspersed with benign cucumber habitat, this adaptation was only temporary and disappeared when the populations in the benign cucumber environment were expanding and spilling-over to the challenging pepper environment. Although the focal species outcompeted the competitor after about two months, a negative effect of competition on the focal species's performance persisted in the benign environment. Adaptation to challenging habitat in heterogeneous landscapes thus highly depends on demography and source-sink dynamics, but also on competitive interactions with other species, even if they are only present for a short time span.

Incomplete datasets obscure associations between traits affecting dispersal ability and geographic range size of reef fishes in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

Dispersal is thought to be an important process determining range size, especially for species in highly spatially structured habitats, such as tropical reef fishes. Despite intensive research efforts, there is conflicting evidence about the role of dispersal in determining range size. We hypothesize that traits related to dispersal drive range sizes, but that complete and comprehensive datasets are essential for detecting relationships between species' dispersal ability and range size. We investigate the roles of six traits affecting several stages of dispersal (adult mobility, spawning mode, pelagic larval duration (PLD), body size, aggregation behavior, and circadian activity), in explaining range size variation of reef fishes in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP). All traits, except for PLD (148 species), had data for all 497 species in the region. Using a series of statistical models, we investigated which traits were associated with large range sizes, when analyzing all TEP species or only species with PLD data. Furthermore, using null models, we analyzed whether the PLD-subset is representative of the regional species pool. Several traits affecting dispersal ability were strongly associated with range size, although these relationships could not be detected when using the PLD-subset. Pelagic spawners (allowing for passive egg dispersal) had on average 56% larger range sizes than nonpelagic spawners. Species with medium or high adult mobility had on average a 25% or 33% larger range, respectively, than species with low mobility. Null models showed that the PLD-subset was nonrepresentative of the regional species pool, explaining why model outcomes using the PLD-subset differed from the ones based on the complete dataset. Our results show that in the TEP, traits affecting dispersal ability are important in explaining range size variation. Using a regionally complete dataset was crucial for detecting the theoretically expected, but so far empirically unresolved, relationship between dispersal and range size.

The Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: Novel Understanding through Mechanistic Eco-evolutionary Models

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely studied patterns in ecology, yet no consensus has been reached about its underlying causes. We argue that the reasons for this are the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, the failure to mechanistically link interacting ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and the fact that empirical patterns are often consistent with multiple explanations. To address this issue, we synthesize current LDG hypotheses, uncovering their eco-evolutionary mechanisms, hidden assumptions, and commonalities. Furthermore, we propose mechanistic eco-evolutionary modeling and an inferential approach that makes use of geographic, phylogenetic, and trait-based patterns to assess the relative importance of different processes for generating the LDG.

Inferring Diversification Rate Variation From Phylogenies With Fossils

Time-calibrated phylogenies of living species have been widely used to study the tempo and mode of species diversification. However, it is increasingly clear that inferences about species diversification-extinction rates in particular-can be unreliable in the absence of paleontological data. We introduce a general framework based on the fossilized birth-death process for studying speciation-extinction dynamics on phylogenies of extant and extinct species. The model assumes that phylogenies can be modeled as a mixture of distinct evolutionary rate regimes and that a hierarchical Poisson process governs the number of such rate regimes across a tree. We implemented the model in BAMM, a computational framework that uses reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to simulate a posterior distribution of macroevolutionary rate regimes conditional on the branching times and topology of a phylogeny. The implementation, we describe can be applied to paleontological phylogenies, neontological phylogenies, and to phylogenies that include both extant and extinct taxa. We evaluate performance of the model on data sets simulated under a range of diversification scenarios. We find that speciation rates are reliably inferred in the absence of paleontological data. However, the inclusion of fossil observations substantially increases the accuracy of extinction rate estimates. We demonstrate that inferences are relatively robust to at least some violations of model assumptions, including heterogeneity in preservation rates and misspecification of the number of occurrences in paleontological data sets.

The influence of ecological and geographic limits on the evolution of species distributions and diversity

The role of ecological limits in regulating the distribution and diversification of species remains controversial. Although such limits must ultimately arise from constraints on local species coexistence, this spatial context is missing from most macroevolutionary models. Here, we develop a stochastic, spatially explicit model of species diversification to explore the phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns expected when local diversity is bounded. We show how local ecological limits, by regulating opportunities for range expansion and thus rates of speciation and extinction, lead to temporal slowdowns in diversification and predictable differences in equilibrium diversity between regions. However, our models also show that even when regions have identical diversity limits, the dynamics of diversification and total number of species supported at equilibrium can vary dramatically depending on the relative size of geographic and local ecological niche space. Our model predicts that small regions with higher local ecological limits support a higher standing diversity and more balanced phylogenetic trees than large geographic areas with more stringent constraints on local coexistence. Our findings highlight how considering the spatial context of diversification can provide new insights into the role of ecological limits in driving variation in biodiversity across space, time, and clades.

Detecting local diversity-dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum-likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity-dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity-dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co-occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity-dependence model can detect local diversity-dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity-dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity-dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity-dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity-dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.

Relative contribution of neutral and deterministic processes in shaping fruit-feeding butterfly assemblages in Afrotropical forests

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography has gained the status of a quantitative null model for explaining patterns in ecological (meta)communities. The theory assumes that individuals of trophically similar species are functionally equivalent. We empirically evaluate the relative contribution of neutral and deterministic processes in shaping fruit-feeding butterfly assemblages in three tropical forests in Africa, using both direct (confronting the neutral model with species abundance data) and indirect approaches (testing the predictions of neutral theory using data other than species abundance distributions). Abundance data were obtained by sampling butterflies using banana baited traps set at the forest canopy and understorey strata. Our results indicate a clear consistency in the kind of species or species groups observed at either the canopy or understorey in the three studied communities. Furthermore, we found significant correlation between some flight-related morphological traits and species abundance at the forest canopy, but not at the understorey. Neutral theory's contribution to explaining our data lies largely in identifying dispersal limitation as a key process regulating fruit-feeding butterfly community structure. Our study illustrates that using species abundance data alone in evaluating neutral theory can be informative, but is insufficient. Species-level information such as habitat preference, host plants, geographical distribution, and phylogeny is essential in elucidating the processes that regulate biodiversity community structures and patterns.

Robustness of the approximate likelihood of the protracted speciation model

The protracted speciation model presents a realistic and parsimonious explanation for the observed slowdown in lineage accumulation through time, by accounting for the fact that speciation takes time. A method to compute the likelihood for this model given a phylogeny is available and allows estimation of its parameters (rate of initiation of speciation, rate of completion of speciation and extinction rate) and statistical comparison of this model to other proposed models of diversification. However, this likelihood computation method makes an approximation of the protracted speciation model to be mathematically tractable: it sometimes counts fewer species than one would do from a biological perspective. This approximation may have large consequences for likelihood-based inferences: it may render any conclusions based on this method completely irrelevant. Here, we study to what extent this approximation affects parameter estimations. We simulated phylogenies from which we reconstructed the tree of extant species according to the original, biologically meaningful protracted speciation model and according to the approximation. We then compared the resulting parameter estimates. We found that the differences were larger for high values of extinction rates and small values of speciation-completion rates. Indeed, a long speciation-completion time and a high extinction rate promote the appearance of cases to which the approximation applies. However, surprisingly, the deviation introduced is largely negligible over the parameter space explored, suggesting that this approximate likelihood can be applied reliably in practice to estimate biologically relevant parameters under the original protracted speciation model.

Quantifying species contributions to ecosystem processes: a global assessment of functional trait and phylogenetic metrics across avian seed-dispersal networks

Quantifying the role of biodiversity in ecosystems not only requires understanding the links between species and the ecological functions and services they provide, but also how these factors relate to measurable indices, such as functional traits and phylogenetic diversity. However, these relationships remain poorly understood, especially for heterotrophic organisms within complex ecological networks. Here, we assemble data on avian traits across a global sample of mutualistic plant-frugivore networks to critically assess how the functional roles of frugivores are associated with their intrinsic traits, as well as their evolutionary and functional distinctiveness. We find strong evidence for niche complementarity, with phenotypically and phylogenetically distinct birds interacting with more unique sets of plants. However, interaction strengths-the number of plant species dependent on a frugivore-were unrelated to evolutionary or functional distinctiveness, largely because distinct frugivores tend to be locally rare, and thus have fewer connections across the network. Instead, interaction strengths were better predicted by intrinsic traits, including body size, gape width and dietary specialization. Our analysis provides general support for the use of traits in quantifying species ecological functions, but also highlights the need to go beyond simple metrics of functional or phylogenetic diversity to consider the multiple pathways through which traits may determine ecological processes.

Equilibrium Bird Species Diversity in Atlantic Islands

Half a century ago, MacArthur and Wilson proposed that the number of species on islands tends toward a dynamic equilibrium diversity around which species richness fluctuates [1]. The current prevailing view in island biogeography accepts the fundamentals of MacArthur and Wilson's theory [2] but questions whether their prediction of equilibrium can be fulfilled over evolutionary timescales, given the unpredictable and ever-changing nature of island geological and biotic features [3-7]. Here we conduct a complete molecular phylogenetic survey of the terrestrial bird species from four oceanic archipelagos that make up the diverse Macaronesian bioregion-the Azores, the Canary Islands, Cape Verde, and Madeira [8, 9]. We estimate the times at which birds colonized and speciated in the four archipelagos, including many previously unsampled endemic and non-endemic taxa and their closest continental relatives. We develop and fit a new multi-archipelago dynamic stochastic model to these data, explicitly incorporating information from 91 taxa, both extant and extinct. Remarkably, we find that all four archipelagos have independently achieved and maintained a dynamic equilibrium over millions of years. Biogeographical rates are homogeneous across archipelagos, except for the Canary Islands, which exhibit higher speciation and colonization. Our finding that the avian communities of the four Macaronesian archipelagos display an equilibrium diversity pattern indicates that a diversity plateau may be rapidly achieved on islands where rates of in situ radiation are low and extinction is high. This study reveals that equilibrium processes may be more prevalent than recently proposed, supporting MacArthur and Wilson's 50-year-old theory.

Community assembly in Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish: quantifying the contributions of both niche-based and neutral processes

The cichlid family features some of the most spectacular examples of adaptive radiation. Evolutionary studies have highlighted the importance of both trophic adaptation and sexual selection in cichlid speciation. However, it is poorly understood what processes drive the composition and diversity of local cichlid species assemblages on relatively short, ecological timescales. Here, we investigate the relative importance of niche-based and neutral processes in determining the composition and diversity of cichlid communities inhabiting various environmental conditions in the littoral zone of Lake Tanganyika, Zambia. We collected data on cichlid abundance, morphometrics, and local environments. We analyzed relationships between mean trait values, community composition, and environmental variation, and used a recently developed modeling technique (STEPCAM) to estimate the contributions of niche-based and neutral processes to community assembly. Contrary to our expectations, our results show that stochastic processes, and not niche-based processes, were responsible for the majority of cichlid community assembly. We also found that the relative importance of niche-based and neutral processes was constant across environments. However, we found significant relationships between environmental variation, community trait means, and community composition. These relationships were caused by niche-based processes, as they disappeared in simulated, purely neutrally assembled communities. Importantly, these results can potentially reconcile seemingly contrasting findings in the literature about the importance of either niche-based or neutral-based processes in community assembly, as we show that significant trait relationships can already be found in nearly (but not completely) neutrally assembled communities; that is, even a small deviation from neutrality can have major effects on community patterns.

Phylogenetic congruence between subtropical trees and their associated fungi

Recent studies have detected phylogenetic signals in pathogen–host networks for both soil‐borne and leaf‐infecting fungi, suggesting that pathogenic fungi may track or coevolve with their preferred hosts. However, a phylogenetically concordant relationship between multiple hosts and multiple fungi in has rarely been investigated. Using next‐generation high‐throughput DNA sequencing techniques, we analyzed fungal taxa associated with diseased leaves, rotten seeds, and infected seedlings of subtropical trees. We compared the topologies of the phylogenetic trees of the soil and foliar fungi based on the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region with the phylogeny of host tree species based on matK, rbcL, atpB, and 5.8S genes. We identified 37 foliar and 103 soil pathogenic fungi belonging to the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota phyla and detected significantly nonrandom host–fungus combinations, which clustered on both the fungus phylogeny and the host phylogeny. The explicit evidence of congruent phylogenies between tree hosts and their potential fungal pathogens suggests either diffuse coevolution among the plant–fungal interaction networks or that the distribution of fungal species tracked spatially associated hosts with phylogenetically conserved traits and habitat preferences. Phylogenetic conservatism in plant–fungal interactions within a local community promotes host and parasite specificity, which is integral to the important role of fungi in promoting species coexistence and maintaining biodiversity of forest communities.

The Role of Within-Host Competition for Coexistence in Multiparasitoid-Host Systems

Multiparasitism (females of multiple species parasitizing the same host) is a ubiquitous phenomenon in parasitoids, yet the role of within-host competition has been mostly ignored in multiparasitoid-host models. Here we study the effect of varying the degree of competition at different life stages: competition over oviposition sites (between-adult competition) and larval competition over resources within the host (within-host competition). We adapt a Nicholson-Bailey model to allow for varying levels of between-adult competition (varying the overlap in species distributions) and within-host competition (varying the number of offspring that can successfully emerge from a host). Surprisingly, while stronger between-adult competition reduces coexistence, stronger within-host competition promotes it. Asymmetric between-adult competition (a fecundity difference between the two species) reduces coexistence when compared to symmetric competition; this can be counteracted by asymmetric within-host competition (within-host competitive advantage of the lower-fecundity species), but only when within-host competition is strong and the correlation between the parasitoids' distributions is intermediate. We discuss our results in the context of the interaction between two parasitoid species, Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia giraulti, which have strongly correlated distributions and high levels of multiparasitism in the field. We conclude that either low or asymmetric within-host competition is unlikely to explain their coexistence.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi counteract the Janzen-Connell effect of soil pathogens

Soilborne pathogens can contribute to diversity maintenance in tree communities through the Janzen-Connell effect, whereby the pathogenic reduction of seedling performance attenuates with distance from conspecifics. By contrast, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have been reported to promote seedling performance; however, it is unknown whether this is also distance dependent. Here, we investigate the distance dependence of seedling performance in the presence of both pathogens and AMF. In a subtropical forest in south China, we conducted a four-year field census of four species with relatively large phylogenetic distances and found no distance-dependent mortality for newly germinated seedlings. By experimentally separating the effects of AMF and pathogens on seedling performance of six subtropical tree species in a shade house, we found that soil pathogens significantly inhibited seedling survival and growth while AMF largely promoted seedling growth, and these effects were host specific and declined with increasing conspecific distance. Together, our field and experimental results suggest that AMF can neutralize the negative effect of pathogens and that the Janzen-Connell effect may play a less prominent role in explaining diversity of nondominant tree species than previously thought.