Abstract 140: The Incidence Of Stroke In Indigenous Populations Of Countries With A Very High Human Development Index: A Systematic Review

Introduction: Despite known socioeconomic and health disparities affecting Indigenous populations in developed countries, stroke incidence data are sparse. With Indigenous Advisory Board oversight, we undertook a systematic review to compare Indigenous with non-Indigenous stroke incidence rates in countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI).

Methods: We identified population-based stroke incidence studies published from 1990-2022 in Indigenous adult populations of developed countries using PubMed, EMBASE and Global Health databases, without language restriction. We excluded non-peer-reviewed sources, studies with <10 Indigenous people, or studies not covering a 35-64 year minimum age range. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, and extracted data. We assessed quality using "ideal" criteria for population-based stroke incidence studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for risk of bias, and CONSIDER criteria for Indigenous research.

Results: Among 13,041 publications, 24 studies (19 full text, 5 abstracts) from 7 countries met inclusion criteria. Compared with respective non-Indigenous populations (Fig 1), age-standardised incidence rates were greater in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians (ratios ranging from 1.7-3.2), American Indians (1.2), Sámi of Sweden/Norway (1.08-2.14), and Singaporean Malay (1.7-1.9), with higher rate ratios at younger ages. Studies had substantial heterogeneity in design and risk of bias. Few investigators reported Indigenous stakeholder involvement.

Conclusions: In countries with a very high HDI, available data suggest marked disparities in stroke incidence in Indigenous populations, although there are gaps in data availability and quality. Indigenous stakeholder involvement in studies is infrequently reported. A greater understanding of stroke incidence in these populations is imperative for informing effective societal responses.

Rural versus metropolitan comparison of processes of care in the community‐based management of TIA and minor stroke in Australia (an analysis from the INSIST study)

OBJECTIVES

To compare processes of care and clinical outcomes of community-based management of TIAs and minor strokes (TIAMS) between rural and metropolitan Australia.

DESIGN

Inception cohort study between 2012 and 2016 with 12-month follow-up after index event (sub-study of INSIST).

SETTING

Hunter and Manning valley regions of New South Wales, within the referral territory of the John Hunter Hospital Acute Neurovascular Clinic (JHHANC).

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive patients of 16 participating general practices, presenting with possible TIAMS to either primary or secondary care.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Processes of care (referrals, key management processes, time-based metrics) and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 613 participants with possible TIAMS who completed the baseline interview, 298 were adjudicated as having TIAMS (119 from rural, 179 from metropolitan). Mean age was 72.3 years (SD, 10.7) and 127 (43%) were women. Rural participants were more likely to be managed solely by a general practitioner (GP) than metropolitan participants (34% v 20%) and less likely to be referred to a JHHANC specialist (13% v 38%) or have brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) [24% v 51%]. Those rural participants who were referred, also waited longer (both p < 0.001). Recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction and death at 12 months were not significantly different between rural and metropolitan participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Although TIAMS prognosis in rural settings where solely GP care is common is very good, the processes of care in such areas are inferior to metropolitan. This suggests there is further scope to support rural GPs to optimise care of TIAMS patients.

Geographic Disparities in Stroke Outcomes and Service Access: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

International evidence shows that patients treated at nonurban hospitals experience poorer access to key stroke interventions. Evidence for whether this results in poorer outcomes is conflicting and generally based on administrative or voluntary registry data. The aim of this study was to use prospective high-quality comprehensive nationwide patient-level data to investigate the association between hospital geography and outcomes of patients with stroke and access to best-practice stroke care in New Zealand.

METHODS

This is a prospective, multicenter, nationally representative observational study involving all 28 New Zealand acute stroke hospitals (18 nonurban) and affiliated rehabilitation and community services. Consecutive adults admitted to the hospital with acute stroke between May 1 and October 31, 2018, were captured. Outcomes included functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score shift analysis), functional independence (mRS score 0-2), quality of life (EuroQol 5-dimension, 3-level health-related quality of life questionnaire), stroke/vascular events, and death at 3, 6, and 12 months and proportion accessing thrombolysis, thrombectomy, stroke units, key investigations, secondary prevention, and inpatient/community rehabilitation. Results were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, stroke severity/type, comorbid conditions, baseline function, and differences in baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall, 2,379 patients were eligible (mean [SD] age 75 [13.7] years; 51.2% male; 1,430 urban, 949 nonurban). Patients treated at nonurban hospitals were more likely to score in a higher mRS score category (greater disability) at 3 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.53), 6 (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.07-1.65), and 12 (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.06-1.62) months and were more likely to have died (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.12) or experienced recurrent stroke and vascular events at 12 months (aOR 1.94, 95% CI 1.14-3.29 and aOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.09-2.52). Fewer nonurban patients received recommended stroke interventions, including endovascular thrombectomy (aOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.13-0.49), acute stroke unit care (aOR 0.60, 95% CI 0.49-0.73), antiplatelet prescriptions (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58-0.88), ≥60 minutes of daily physical therapy (aOR 0.55, 95% CI 0.40-0.77), and community rehabilitation (aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.84).

DISCUSSION

Patients managed at nonurban hospitals experience poorer stroke outcomes and reduced access to key stroke interventions across the entire care continuum. Efforts to improve access to high quality stroke care in nonurban hospitals should be a priority.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends In Stroke Burden In Central And Eastern Europe 1990-2019

INTRODUCTION

During the last decades there has been wide recognition of the health divide between Western Europe and the former socialist countries from Central and Eastern Europe. However, these have not been assessed in terms of burden of disease and the effect of stroke has not been fully elucidated, especially in terms of time trends.

METHODS

The West-Eastern European stroke burden was analysed using data from the Global Burden of Stroke (GBD) Study 2019 in terms of disability-adjusted life-years lost (DALYs) and years of life lost (YLL) over the period 1990 - 2019 by gender. Data were extracted on regional (West, Central and East Europe) and country level for the twenty former socialist countries from Central and East Europe according to GBD regional definitions. We focused on the trends of age-standardised stroke burden rates across the three decades and compared them with the average rates for West Europe.

MAIN FINDINGS

All Central and East European countries experienced a decline in all-cause disease burden between 1990 - 2019 and a gap was confirmed between the East, the Central and the West European region for men, but not for women. The age-standardised stroke rates declined in the three European regions and in all twenty Central and East European countries but at a different pace. The stroke burden among women exhibited the greatest decline in the West -59% [95% UI (-60; -57)] followed by the Central European region -48% [95% UI (-53; -42)] and lowest among women in East Europe -37% [95% UI (-43; -29)]. The decline of stroke burden among Western men was even higher than among women -61% [95% UI (-63; -60)], while in Central Europe it was -43% [95% UI (-50; -37)] and in the East -25% [95% UI (-34; -14)], leading to widening of the gap between East, Central and West Europe in relation to stroke burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of stroke contributes to the European health gap through preventable premature stroke deaths. There are some very successful countries in stroke burden management from both Central (Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary) and East Europe (Estonia), suggesting that closing the health gap between East and West is a realistic aim.

All Life Protection and Our Collective Future

None--this is an editorial.

Digital Health in Primordial and Primary Stroke Prevention: A Systematic Review

The stroke burden continues to grow across the globe, disproportionally affecting developing countries. This burden cannot be effectively halted and reversed without effective and widely implemented primordial and primary stroke prevention measures, including those on the individual level. The unprecedented growth of smartphone and other digital technologies with digital solutions are now being used in almost every area of health, offering a unique opportunity to improve primordial and primary stroke prevention on the individual level. However, there are several issues that need to be considered to advance development and use this important digital strategy for primordial and primary stroke prevention. Using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines we provide a systematic review of the current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities of digital health in primordial and primary stroke prevention.

Clinical investigation of dynamic and enduring aspects of global cognition in aged population

BACKGROUND

A major issue in evaluating the cognitive status of ageing populations is a clear distinction between enduring and dynamic aspects of global cognition necessary for evaluating risks of dementia and effectiveness of preventive interventions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Generalizability Theory was applied to investigate dynamic and enduring aspects of global cognition using longitudinal data over 10 years of follow-up. Measures included the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) and the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status-modified (TICS-M). The sample (N = 238) included 154 females, mean age = 76.54 years, SD = 3.94 from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

RESULTS

The MMSE measured dynamic and enduring aspects of cognition to a comparable degree with 56% of variance explained by enduring aspects and 44% by dynamic aspects and showed low sensitivity/high specificity in detecting dementia. A shortened version of the MMSE (MMSE-D8) better captured dynamic aspects of cognition after removing three items less sensitive to change. The TICS-M predominantly measured enduring aspects of cognition (72%) with the remaining 28% due to dynamic aspects and displayed high sensitivity/high specificity for dementia screening.

CONCLUSIONS

The MMSE measures both dynamic and enduring cognitive aspects and is suitable for general clinical assessments, while the MMSE-D8 can be used to monitor transitory changes of global cognition over time. The TICS-M is more useful for measuring enduring features of cognition and screening for dementia. Our findings highlight the value of generalizability theory to distinguish dynamic and enduring features of cognition, which may contribute to preventive interventions and monitoring cognitive ability over time.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

The impact of ethnicity on stroke care access and patient outcomes: a New Zealand nationwide observational study

Background

Ethnic inequities in stroke care access have been reported internationally but the impact on outcomes remains unclear. In New Zealand, data on ethnic stroke inequities and resultant effects on outcomes are generally limited and conflicting.

Methods

In a prospective, nationwide, multi-centre observational study, we recruited consecutive adult patients with confirmed stroke from 28 hospitals between 1 May and 31 October 2018. Patient outcomes: favourable functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale 0-2); quality of life (EQ-5D-3L); stroke/vascular events; and death at three, six and 12 months. Process measures: access to reperfusion therapies, stroke-units, investigations, secondary prevention, rehabilitation. Multivariate regression analyses assessed associations between ethnicity and outcomes and process measures.

Findings

The cohort comprised 2,379 patients (median age 78 (IQR 66-85); 51·2% male; 76·7% European, 11·5% Māori, 4·8% Pacific peoples, 4·8% Asian). Non-Europeans were younger, had more risk factors, had reduced access to acute stroke units (aOR=0·78, 95%CI, 0·60-0·97), and were less likely to receive a swallow screen within 24 hours of arrival (aOR=0·72, 0·53-0·99) or MRI imaging (OR=0·66, 0·52-0·85). Māori were less frequently prescribed anticoagulants (OR=0·68, 0·47-0·98). Pacific peoples received greater risk factor counselling. Fewer non-Europeans had a favourable mRS score at three (aOR=0·67, 0·47-0·96), six (aOR=0·63, 0·40-0·98) and 12 months (aOR=0·56, 0·36-0·88), and more Māori had died by 12 months (aOR=1·76, 1·07-2·89).

Interpretation

Non-Europeans, especially Māori, had poorer access to key stroke interventions and experience poorer outcomes. Further optimisation of stroke care targeting high-priority populations are needed to achieve equity.

Funding

New Zealand Health Research Council (HRC17/037).

One-Year Risk of Stroke After Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke in Hunter New England, Australia (INSIST Study)

Background: One-year risk of stroke in transient ischemic attack and minor stroke (TIAMS) managed in secondary care settings has been reported as 5-8%. However, evidence for the outcomes of TIAMS in community care settings is limited. Methods: The INternational comparison of Systems of care and patient outcomes In minor Stroke and TIA (INSIST) study was a prospective inception cohort community-based study of patients of 16 general practices in the Hunter-Manning region (New South Wales, Australia). Possible-TIAMS patients were recruited from 2012 to 2016 and followed-up for 12 months post-index event. Adjudication as TIAMS or TIAMS-mimics was by an expert panel. We established 7-days, 90-days, and 1-year risk of stroke, TIA, myocardial infarction (MI), coronary or carotid revascularization procedure and death; and medications use at 24 h post-index event. Results: Of 613 participants (mean age; 70 ± 12 years), 298 (49%) were adjudicated as TIAMS. TIAMS-group participants had ischemic strokes at 7-days, 90-days, and 1-year, at Kaplan-Meier (KM) rates of 1% (95% confidence interval; 0.3, 3.1), 2.1% (0.9, 4.6), and 3.2% (1.7, 6.1), respectively, compared to 0.3, 0.3, and 0.6% of TIAMS-mimic-group participants. At one year, TIAMS-group-participants had twenty-five TIA events (KM rate: 8.8%), two MI events (0.6%), four coronary revascularizations (1.5%), eleven carotid revascularizations (3.9%), and three deaths (1.1%), compared to 1.6, 0.6, 1.0, 0.3, and 0.6% of TIAMS-mimic-group participants. Of 167 TIAMS-group participants who commenced or received enhanced therapies, 95 (57%) were treated within 24 h post-index event. For TIAMS-group participants who commenced or received enhanced therapies, time from symptom onset to treatment was median 9.5 h [IQR 1.8-89.9]. Conclusion: One-year risk of stroke in TIAMS participants was lower than reported in previous studies. Early implementation of antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapies may have contributed to the low stroke recurrence.

World Stroke Organization (WSO): Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022

Stroke remains the second-leading cause of death and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (as expressed by disability-adjusted life-years lost - DALYs) in the world. The estimated global cost of stroke is over US$721 billion (0.66% of the global GDP). From 1990 to 2019, the burden (in terms of the absolute number of cases) increased substantially (70.0% increase in incident strokes, 43.0% deaths from stroke, 102.0% prevalent strokes, and 143.0% DALYs), with the bulk of the global stroke burden (86.0% of deaths and 89.0% of DALYs) residing in lower-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). This World Stroke Organisation (WSO) Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022 provides the most updated information that can be used to inform communication with all internal and external stakeholders; all statistics have been reviewed and approved for use by the WSO Executive Committee as well as leaders from the Global Burden of Disease research group.

Neurocognitive correlates of probable posttraumatic stress disorder following traumatic brain injury

Introduction

Neurocognitive problems associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can interact with impairment resulting from traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Research question

We aimed to identify neurocognitive problems associated with probable PTSD following TBI in a civilian sample.

Material and methods

The study is part of the CENTER-TBI project (Collaborative European Neurotrauma Effectiveness Research) that aims to better characterize TBI. For this cross-sectional study, we included patients of all severities aged over 15, and a Glasgow Outcome Score Extended (GOSE) above 3. Participants were assessed at six months post-injury on the PTSD Checklist-5 (PCL-5), the Trail Making Test (TMT), the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) and the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB). Primary analysis was a complete case analysis. Regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the PCL-5 and cognition.

Results

Of the 1134 participants included in the complete case analysis, 13.5% screened positive for PTSD. Probable PTSD was significantly associated with higher TMT-(B-A) (OR ​= ​1.35, 95% CI: 1.14–1.60, p ​< ​.001) and lower RAVLT-delayed recall scores (OR ​= ​0.74, 95% CI: 0.61–0.91, p ​= ​.004) after controlling for age, sex, psychiatric history, baseline Glasgow Coma Scale and education.

Discussion and conclusion

Poorer performance on cognitive tests assessing task switching and, to a lesser extent, delayed verbal recall is associated with probable PTSD in civilians who have suffered TBI.

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Six months after traumatic brain injury 13.5% of people screen positive for PTSD.

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Task switching performance and verbal memory are related to probable PTSD.

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PTSD severity is related to processing speed and task switching performance.

Primary stroke prevention worldwide: translating evidence into action

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability worldwide and its burden is increasing rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries, many of which are unable to face the challenges it imposes. In this Health Policy paper on primary stroke prevention, we provide an overview of the current situation regarding primary prevention services, estimate the cost of stroke and stroke prevention, and identify deficiencies in existing guidelines and gaps in primary prevention. We also offer a set of pragmatic solutions for implementation of primary stroke prevention, with an emphasis on the role of governments and population-wide strategies, including task-shifting and sharing and health system re-engineering. Implementation of primary stroke prevention involves patients, health professionals, funders, policy makers, implementation partners, and the entire population along the life course.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Fighting Against Stroke in Latin America: A Joint Effort of Medical Professional Societies and Governments

Introduction: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death in Latin America, a region with countless gaps to be addressed to decrease its burden. In 2018, at the first Latin American Stroke Ministerial Meeting, stroke physician and healthcare manager representatives from 13 countries signed the Declaration of Gramado with the priorities to improve the region, with the commitment to implement all evidence-based strategies for stroke care. The second meeting in March 2020 reviewed the achievements in 2 years and discussed new objectives. This paper will review the 2-year advances and future plans of the Latin American alliance for stroke. Method: In March 2020, a survey based on the Declaration of Gramado items was sent to the neurologists participants of the Stroke Ministerial Meetings. The results were confirmed with representatives of the Ministries of Health and leaders from the countries at the second Latin American Stroke Ministerial Meeting. Results: In 2 years, public stroke awareness initiatives increased from 25 to 75% of countries. All countries have started programs to encourage physical activity, and there has been an increase in the number of countries that implement, at least partially, strategies to identify and treat hypertension, diabetes, and lifestyle risk factors. Programs to identify and treat dyslipidemia and atrial fibrillation still remained poor. The number of stroke centers increased from 322 to 448, all of them providing intravenous thrombolysis, with an increase in countries with stroke units. All countries have mechanical thrombectomy, but mostly restricted to a few private hospitals. Pre-hospital organization remains limited. The utilization of telemedicine has increased but is restricted to a few hospitals and is not widely available throughout the country. Patients have late, if any, access to rehabilitation after hospital discharge. Conclusion: The initiative to collaborate, exchange experiences, and unite societies and governments to improve stroke care in Latin America has yielded good results. Important advances have been made in the region in terms of increasing the number of acute stroke care services, implementing reperfusion treatments and creating programs for the detection and treatment of risk factors. We hope that this approach can reduce inequalities in stroke care in Latin America and serves as a model for other under-resourced environments.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.