Efficacy and Safety of Probiotics in Geriatric Patients with Constipation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Probiotics may be an effective alternative to traditional drug therapy for constipation in the elderly.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of probiotics in managing constipation among the elderly.

METHODS

Eight databases were queried for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating probiotics' efficacy in addressing constipation among the elderly until January 2023. The meta-analysis was conducted employing R software version 4.2.2. The Cochrane risk of bias tool was utilized to evaluate the risk of bias, and the GRADE approach was employed to assess the credibility of the evidence concerning the efficacy of probiotics in treating constipation in older individuals.

RESULTS

A total of six RCTs involving 444 patients were included. Two studies were rated as low risk of bias. The meta-analysis findings revealed that probiotics, when compared to a placebo, led to an increase in stool frequency (MD = 1.02,95% CI [0.21, 2.07], p<0.05, very low quality), the probiotic group exhibited a notable impact on ameliorating symptoms associated with constipation (OR = 11.28, 95%CI [7.21, 17.64], p < 0.05, very low quality), no significant disparities were observed in terms of efforts to evacuate, manual maneuvers, and the incidence of adverse events (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

The available evidence indicates a degree of uncertainty, ranging from low-to-very low, suggesting the efficacy of probiotics in augmenting bowel frequency and ameliorating constipation-related symptoms among elderly patients with constipation. Nevertheless, given the quality of the studies included, it is advisable to conduct further well-designed investigations with substantial sample sizes to substantiate the findings of this study.

The Community Engaged Digital Alzheimer's Research (CEDAR) Study: A Digital Intervention to Increase Research Participation of Black American Participants in the Brain Health Registry

BACKGROUND

Although Black/African American older adults bear significant inequities in prevalence, incidence, and outcomes of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, they are profoundly under-included in Alzheimer's Disease research. Community-Engaged Research (e.g., equitable community/science partnerships) is an evidence-based approach for improving engagement of underrepresented populations into Alzheimer's Disease research, but has lacked scalability to the national level. As internet use among older adults from underrepresented populations continues to grow, internet-based research shows promise as a feasible, valid approach to engagement and longitudinal assessment. The Community Engaged Digital Alzheimer's Research (CEDAR) study utilizes a community-engaged research approach to increase the engagement and research participation of Black/African American adults in the Brain Health Registry (BHR) and Alzheimer Disease clinical research.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the methods and evaluate the feasibility of the CEDAR culturally-informed digital platform within BHR.

DESIGN

All Black/African American participants in BHR were invited to enroll in CEDAR and to consider serving on a newly convened Community-Scientific Partnership Board to guide the study. The community board guided the development a culturally-informed cadre of engagement materials and strategies to increase research participation. Engagement strategies included incentives for study task completion, culturally-informed communications (e.g., landing page, emails and social media), resources about brain health, and video and written testimonials by CEDAR participants.

SETTING

BHR, an Internet-based registry and cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

BHR participants self-identifying as Black/African American were invited to enroll. All participants who signed an online informed consent document were enrolled.

MEASUREMENTS

We report the number of participants invited, enrolled, completed tasks, and volunteered to join the community board. We compared the demographics, cognitive profile, and baseline BHR task completion rates between CEDAR participants and all those invited to join the study.

RESULTS

Of 3738 invited, 349 (9.34%) enrolled in CEDAR. 134 (37% of CEDAR participants) volunteered to join the community board, of which 19 were selected for the community board. Compared to those invited, the CEDAR cohort had a higher percentage of female participants (84.5%) and a lower percentage of participants who identify as belonging to more than one ethnocultural group (21.8%). Compared to those did not enroll in CEDAR, those enrolled in CEDAR had a higher percentage of participants completing all BHR tasks (22%) and a higher percentage of participants completing at least one cognitive test (76%). Those enrolled in CEDAR also had a higher percentage of participants having an enrolled study partner (18%).

CONCLUSIONS

A culturally-informed Community-Engaged Research approach, including a remotely-convened community board, to engagement of Black/African American participants in an online research registry is feasible. This approach can be adapted for use in various clinical studies and other settings. Future studies will evaluate the effectiveness of the engagement strategies.

Risk Factors Associated with the Spatiotemporal Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 Variant — Shanghai Municipality, China, 2022

What is already known about this topic?

Previous studies have explored the spatial transmission patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and have assessed the associated risk factors. However, none of these studies have quantitatively described the spatiotemporal transmission patterns and risk factors for Omicron BA.2 at the micro (within-city) scale.

What is added by this report?

This study highlights the heterogeneous spread of the 2022 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai, and identifies associations between different metrics of spatial spread at the subdistrict level and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, human mobility patterns, and adopted interventions.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Disentangling different risk factors might contribute to a deeper understanding of the transmission dynamics and ecology of coronavirus disease 2019 and an effective design of monitoring and management strategies.

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: A descriptive study

BACKGROUND

In early March 2022, a major outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant spread rapidly throughout Shanghai, China. Here we aimed to provide a description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak under the population-based screening and lockdown policies implemented in Shanghai.

METHODS

We extracted individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between January 1 and May 31, 2022, and on the timeline of the adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions. The epidemic was divided into three phases: i) sporadic infections (January 1-February 28), ii) local transmission (March 1-March 31), and iii) city-wide lockdown (April 1 to May 31). We described the epidemic spread during these three phases and the subdistrict-level spatiotemporal distribution of the infections. To evaluate the impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 of the adopted targeted interventions in Phase 2 and city-wide lockdown in Phase 3, we estimated the dynamics of the net reproduction number (R_t ).

FINDINGS

A surge in imported infections in Phase 1 triggered cryptic local transmission of the Omicron variant in early March, resulting in the largest outbreak in mainland China since the original wave. A total of 626,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported in 99.5% (215/216) of the subdistricts of Shanghai until the end of May. The spatial distribution of the infections was highly heterogeneous, with 37% of the subdistricts accounting for 80% of all infections. A clear trend from the city center towards adjacent suburban and rural areas was observed, with a progressive slowdown of the epidemic spread (from 463 to 244 meters/day) prior to the citywide lockdown. During Phase 2, R_t remained well above 1 despite the implementation of multiple targeted interventions. The citywide lockdown imposed on April 1 led to a marked decrease in transmission, bringing R_t below the epidemic threshold in the entire city on April 14 and ultimately leading to containment of the outbreak.

INTERPRETATION

Our results highlight the risk of widespread outbreaks in mainland China, particularly under the heightened pressure of imported infections. The targeted interventions adopted in March 2022 were not capable of halting transmission, and the implementation of a strict, prolonged city-wide lockdown was needed to successfully contain the outbreak, highlighting the challenges for containing Omicron outbreaks.

FUNDING

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093); Shanghai Rising-Star Program (22QA1402300).

Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3–11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3–11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness.

Estimating mortality associated with seasonal influenza among adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016: A systematic review and model analysis

BACKGROUND

Estimation of influenza disease burden is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies against seasonal influenza. This study aimed to estimate influenza-associated excess respiratory and circulatory (R&C) and all-cause (AC) mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in mainland China from 2011 to 2016.

METHODS

Through a systematic review, we collected influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality data of older adults aged 65 years and above for specific cities/provinces in mainland China. Generalized linear models were fitted to estimate the corresponding excess mortality for older adults by province and nationwide, accounting for the potential variables of influenza virus activity, demography, economics, meteorology, and health service. All statistical analyses were conducted using R software.

RESULTS

A total of 9154 studies were identified in English and Chinese databases, and 11 (0.1%) were included in the quantitative synthesis after excluding duplicates and screening the title, abstract, and full text. Using a generalized linear model, the estimates of annual national average influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above were 111.8 (95% CI: 92.8-141.1) and 151.6 (95% CI: 127.6-179.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. Large variations in influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults were observed among 30 provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza was associated with substantial excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016. This analysis provides valuable evidence for the introduction of the influenza vaccine into the National Immunization Program for the elderly in China.

[Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of soil-transmitted nematodiasis in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the trends in the prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of soil-transmitted nematodiasis in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the soil-transmitted nematodiasis elimination strategy in Sichuan Province.

METHODS

The soil-transmitted nematodiasis surveillance data in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021 were collected, and the epidemic trend of soil-transmitted nematode infections was identified. The distribution maps of soil-transmitted nematode infections in Sichuan Province were plotted to identify their spatial distribution characteristics. In addition, the spatial clusters of soil-transmitted nematode infections were detected using globa and local spatial autocorrelation analyses.

RESULTS

The prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections appeared a decline with time in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021 (χ²= 400.24, P < 0.01). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis identified positive spatial autocorrelations in the prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections (Moran's I = 0.322, Z = 16.293, P < 0.01), hookworm infections (Moran's I = 0.425, Z = 21.290, P < 0.01), Ascaris lumbricoides infections (Moran's I = 0.102, Z = 5.782, P < 0.01) and Trichuris trichiura infections (Moran's I = 0.084, Z = 6.873, P < 0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clusters of soil-transmitted nematode infections were mainly located in 37 counties (cities, districts) of Sichuan Province, and the high-high clusters of hookworm, A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were mainly identified in 39 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas around Sichuan Basin and hilly areas, 9 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas in southwestern Sichuan Province, and 8 counties (cities, districts) in mountainous areas in southwestern Sichuan Province, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of soil-transmitted nematode infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021, which showed spatial clusters. The management of soil-transmitted nematodiasis requires to be reinforced in high-risk areas of Sichuan Province with adaptations to local epidemiological features.

Diagnostic performance of different specimens in detecting enterovirus A71 in children with hand, foot and mouth disease

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health problem among children in the Asia-Pacific region. The optimal specimen for HFMD virological diagnosis remains unclear. Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) neutralizing antibody titres detected in paired sera were considered the reference standard for calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of throat swabs, rectal swabs, stool, blood samples and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by RT-PCR or ELISA assay. In this study, clinical samples from 276 HFMD patients were collected for analysing the sensitivity of different kind of specimens. Our results showed that stool had the highest sensitivity (88%, 95% CI: 74%-96%) and agreement with the reference standard (91%). The order of diagnostic yield for EV-A71 infection was stool sample ​≥ ​rectal swab ​> ​throat swab ​> ​blood sample ​> ​CSF sample, and using a combination of clinical samples improved sensitivity for enterovirus detection. The sensitivity of ELISA for IgM antibody detection in sterile-site specimens was significantly higher than that of RT-PCR (serum/plasma: 62% vs. 2%, CSF: 47% vs. 0%) (P ​< ​0.002). In conclusion, our results suggest that stool has the highest diagnostic yield for EV-A71-infected HFMD. If stool is unavailable, rectal swabs can be collected to achieve a similar diagnostic yield. Otherwise, throat swabs may be useful in detecting positive samples. Although IgM in blood or CSF is diagnostically accurate, it lacks sensitivity, missing 40%-50% of cases. The higher proportion of severe cases and shorter interval between onset and sampling contributed to the increase in congruency between clinical testing and the serological reference standard.

Estimation of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai, February-June 2022

An outbreak of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 sublineage occurred in Shanghai, China from February 26 to June 30, 2022. We use official reported data retrieved from Shanghai municipal Health Commissions to estimate the incidence of infections, severe/critical infections, and deaths to assess the disease burden. By adjusting for right censoring and RT PCR sensitivity, we provide estimates of clinical severity, including the infection fatality ratio, symptomatic case fatality ratio, and risk of developing severe/critical disease upon infection. The overall infection rate, severe/critical infection rate, and mortality rate were 2.74 (95% CI: 2.73-2.74) per 100 individuals, 6.34 (95% CI: 6.02-6.66) per 100,000 individuals and 2.42 (95% CI: 2.23-2.62) per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The severe/critical infection rate and mortality rate increased with age, noted in individuals aged 80 years or older. The overall fatality ratio and risk of developing severe/critical disease upon infection were 0.09% (95% CI: 0.09-0.10%) and 0.27% (95% CI: 0.24-0.29%), respectively. Having received at least one vaccine dose led to a 10-fold reduction in the risk of death for infected individuals aged 80 years or older. Under the repeated population-based screenings and strict intervention policies implemented in Shanghai, our results found a lower disease burden and mortality of the outbreak compared to other settings and countries, showing the impact of the successful outbreak containment in Shanghai. The estimated low clinical severity of this Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai highlight the key contribution of vaccination and availability of hospital beds to reduce the risk of death.

Estimation of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai, February-June 2022

Background

An outbreak of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 sublineage occurred in Shanghai, China from February to June 2022. The government organized multiple rounds of molecular test screenings for the entire population, providing a unique opportunity to capture the majority of subclinical infections and better characterize disease burden and the full spectrum of Omicron BA.2 clinical severity.

Methods

Using daily reports from the websites of the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, we estimated the incidence of infections, severe/critical infections, and deaths to assess the disease burden. By adjusting for right censoring and Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT□PCR) sensitivity, we provide estimates of clinical severity, including the infection fatality risk, symptomatic case fatality risk, and risk of developing severe/critical disease upon infection.

Findings

From February 26 to June 30, 2022, the overall infection rate, severe/critical infection rate, and mortality rate were 2.74 (95% CI: 2.73-2.74) per 100 individuals, 6.34 (95% CI: 6.02-6.66) per 100,000 individuals and 2.42 (95% CI: 2.23-2.62) per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The severe/critical infection rate and mortality rate increased with age with the highest rates of 125.29 (95% CI: 117.05-133.44) per 100,000 and 57.17 (95% CI: 51.63-62.71) per 100,000 individuals, respectively, noted in individuals aged 80 years or older. The overall fatality risk and risk of developing severe/critical disease upon infection were 0.09% (95% CI: 0.08-0.10%) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.20-0.25%), respectively. Having received at least one vaccine dose led to a 10-fold reduction in the risk of death for infected individuals aged 80 years or older.

Interpretation

Under the repeated population-based screenings and strict intervention policies implemented in Shanghai, our results found a lower disease burden and mortality of the outbreak compared to other settings and countries, showing the impact of the successful outbreak containment in Shanghai. The estimated low clinical severity of this Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai highlight the key contribution of vaccination and availability of hospital beds to reduce the risk of death.

Funding

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093).

Research in context

Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed and Europe PMC for manuscripts published or posted on preprint servers after January 1, 2022 using the following query: ("SARS-CoV-2 Omicron") AND ("burden" OR "severity"). No studies that characterized the whole profile of disease burden and clinical severity during the Shanghai Omicron outbreak were found. One study estimated confirmed case fatality risk between different COVID-19 waves in Hong Kong; other outcomes, such as fatality risk and risk of developing severe/critical illness upon infection, were not estimated. One study based on 21 hospitals across the United States focused on Omicron-specific in-hospital mortality based on a limited sample of inpatients (565). In southern California, United States, a study recruited more than 200 thousand Omicron-infected individuals and estimated the 30-day risk of hospital admission, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and death. None of these studies estimated infection and mortality rates or other indictors associated with disease burden. Overall, the disease burden and clinical severity of the Omicron BA.2 variant have not been fully characterized, especially in populations predominantly immunized with inactivated vaccines.Added value of this study: The large-scale and multiround molecular test screenings conducted on the entire population during the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai, leading to a high infection ascertainment ratio, provide a unique opportunity to capture the majority of subclinical infections. As such, our study provides a comprehensive assessment of both the disease burden and clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 sublineage, which are especially lacking for populations predominantly immunized with inactivated vaccines.Implications of all the available evidence: We estimated the disease burden and clinical severity of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai in February-June 2022. These estimates are key to properly interpreting field evidence and assessing the actual spread of Omicron in other settings. Our results also provide support for the importance of strategies to prevent overwhelming the health care system and increasing vaccine coverage to reduce mortality.

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: a descriptive study

Background

In early March 2022, a major outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant spread rapidly throughout Shanghai, China. Here we aimed to provide a description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak under the population-based screening and lockdown policies implemented in Shanghai.

Methods

We extracted individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between January 1 and May 31, 2022, and on the timeline of the adopted non-pharmacological interventions. The epidemic was divided into three phases: i) sporadic infections (January 1-February 28), ii) local transmission (March 1-March 31), and iii) city-wide lockdown (April 1 to May 31). We described the epidemic spread during these three phases and the subdistrict-level spatiotemporal distribution of the infections. To evaluate the impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 of the adopted targeted interventions in Phase 2 and city-wide lockdown in Phase 3, we estimated the dynamics of the net reproduction number ( R _t ).

Findings

A surge in imported infections in Phase 1 triggered cryptic local transmission of the Omicron variant in early March, resulting in the largest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in mainland China since the original wave. A total of 626,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported in 99.5% (215/216) of the subdistricts of Shanghai. The spatial distribution of the infections was highly heterogeneous, with 40% of the subdistricts accounting for 80% of all infections. A clear trend from the city center towards adjacent suburban and rural areas was observed, with a progressive slowdown of the epidemic spread (from 544 to 325 meters/day) prior to the citywide lockdown. During Phase 2, R _t remained well above 1 despite the implementation of multiple targeted interventions. The citywide lockdown imposed on April 1 led to a marked decrease in transmission, bringing R _t below the epidemic threshold in the entire city on April 14 and ultimately leading to containment of the outbreak.

Interpretation

Our results highlight the risk of widespread outbreaks in mainland China, particularly under the heightened pressure of imported infections. The targeted interventions adopted in March 2022 were not capable of halting transmission, and the implementation of a strict, prolonged city-wide lockdown was needed to successfully contain the outbreak, highlighting the challenges for successfully containing Omicron outbreaks.

Funding

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093).

Research in context

Evidence before this study: On May 24, 2022, we searched PubMed and Europe PMC for papers published or posted on preprint servers after January 1, 2022, using the following query: ("SARS-CoV-2" OR "Omicron" OR "BA.2") AND ("epidemiology" OR "epidemiological" OR "transmission dynamics") AND ("Shanghai"). A total of 26 studies were identified; among them, two aimed to describe or project the spread of the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai. One preprint described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 376 pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections in March 2022, and the other preprint projected the epidemic progress in Shanghai, without providing an analysis of field data. In sum, none of these studies provided a comprehensive description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the outbreak.Added value of this study: We collected individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and the timeline of the public health response. Population-based screenings were repeatedly implemented during the outbreak, which allowed us to investigate the spatiotemporal spread of the Omicron BA.2 variant as well as the impact of the implemented interventions, all without enduring significant amounts of underreporting from surveillance systems, as experienced in other areas. This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, China.Implications of all the available evidence: This descriptive study provides a comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological features and transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, China. The empirical evidence from Shanghai, which was ultimately able to curtail the outbreak, provides invaluable information to policymakers on the impact of the containment strategies adopted by the Shanghai public health officials to prepare for potential outbreaks caused by Omicron or novel variants.

POS0315 DIAGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE OF CASPAR CRITERIA FOR PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS WITH OR WITHOUT INTEGRATION OF ULTRASOUND

Background

Although the CASPAR criteria in the diagnosis of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have been validated, CASPAR based on physical examination (PE) is not “gold standard”. The ultrasound (US) could improve the diagnostic accuracy as compared to clinical examination alone.

Objectives

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of CASPAR criteria for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) with or without integration of ultrasound (US).

Methods

The patients with hint of PsA were enrolled. Tender and swollen joint counts, presents of enthesitis and dactylitis were collected by physical examination (PE). US was performed to evaluate peripheral joints, entheses and tendons. The additional value of US to CASPAR criteria were analysed.

Results

326 consecutive patients were enrolled, with 164 PsA and 162 non-PsA. Significantly higher frequencies of tenosynovitis and enthesitis on US and new bone formation on X-ray were found in PsA than non-PsA patients (56.7% vs. 13.0%; 62.2% vs. 14.2%; 62.2% vs. 8.0%, p<0.01 for all). Logistic regression analysis showed that dactylitis (OR=12.0, p<0.01), family history of PsO/PsA (OR=3.1, p<0.05), nail involvement (OR=3.5, p=0.01), new bone formation (OR=14.8, p<0.01) and tenosynovitis on US (OR=21.3, p<0.01), enthesitis on US (OR=21.7, p<0.01) were independent risk factors for PsA. Adding US tenosynovitis and/or enthesitis to CASPAR criteria showed better performance by improving the specificity (91.4% vs. 67.9%) and meanwhile keeping sensitivity (92.1% vs. 96.3%). When replacing hand X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria, the sensitivity and specificity were comparable to CASPAR criteria adding with US. The diagnostic accuracy was 82.2% for CASPAR criteria based on PE, 91.7% for CASPAR integrated with US, and 91.4% for CASPAR with US to replace X-ray.

Conclusion

CASPAR criteria based on US improve the diagnosis utility of PsA than CASPAR criteria based on PE. US assessment is valuable in the diagnosis of PsA.

References

[1]Fiorenza A, Bonitta G, Gerratana E, et al. Assessment of enthesis in patients with psoriatic arthritis and fibromyalgia using clinical examination and ultrasound. Clinical and experimental rheumatology 2020;38 Suppl 123:31-9.

[2]Zabotti A, Bandinelli F, Batticciotto A, et al. Musculoskeletal ultrasonography for psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis patients: a systematic literature review. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2017;56:1518-32.

Figure 1.

ROC curves for adding US or substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve illustrates the diagnosis performance of CASPAR criteria adding US or substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria and CASPAR criteria based on PE alone. The area under the curve of the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.929 (95%CI 0.897, 0.961) (p<0.01) for adding US to CASPAR criteria. AUC was 0.908 (95%CI 0.876, 0.940) (p<0.01) for CASPAR criteria based on PE. And AUC was 0.916 (95%CI 0.880, 0.951) (p<0.01) for substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria. CASPAR: ClASsification criteria for Psoriatic ARthritis; PE: physical examination; US: ultrasound.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

[Advances in research of interchangeable immunization with live attenuated Japanese encephalitis vaccines and inactivated vaccines]

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable encephalitis in Asia and the Western Pacific, which mainly invades central nervous system. Vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent JE. Currently, both live attenuated Japanese encephalitis vaccines (JE-L) and inactivated vaccines (JE-I) are in use. Due to the supply of vaccines and the personal choice of recipients, there will be a demand for interchangeable immunization of these two vaccines. However, relevant research is limited. By reviewing domestic and foreign research evidence, this article summarizes the current situation of the interchangeable use of JE-L and JE-I, and makes recommendations when the interchangeable immunization is in urgent need, so as to provide reference for practical vaccination and policymaking in China.

[Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019]

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019. Methods: The data of hepatitis A incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis. SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. SPSS 25.0 software was used for additional analysis. Results: Zhejiang Province has reported 5 465 cases of hepatitis A in 2010-2019 years, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.00/100 000, and periodicity and seasonality are not obvious. The incidence of male was higher than that of female (P=0.023), and the highest incidence rate was 50-59 years old. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2017, with the weakest correlation in 2010 (Moran's I =0.103, Z=1.769, P=0.049), and the strongest correlation in 2016 (Moran's I=0.328, Z=4.979, P=0.001). Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that there was spatial aggregation of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019, with a total of three aggregation areas identified. Among them, the mostly aggregation area was concentrated in Xiangshan county of Ningbo city, which covered 10 counties (cities and districts), including Ninghai county and Yinzhou district, and appeared from January 1 to June 30, 2012. Conclusion: The incidence level of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province shows a stable fluctuation trend from 2010 to 2019, and the seasonal regularity is not obvious. The population group aged 50-59 years old is the key population. There is spatial aggregation in the epidemic situation of hepatitis A. Targeted prevention and control measures of hepatitis A should be done based on the law of spatiotemporal aggregation and local incidence.

Neutralizing Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants Induced by Natural Infection or Vaccination: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis

Recently emerged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants may pose a threat to immunity. A systematic landscape of neutralizing antibodies against emerging variants is needed. We systematically searched for studies that evaluated neutralizing antibody titers induced by previous infection or vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 variants and collected individual data. We identified 106 studies meeting the eligibility criteria. Lineage B.1.351 (beta), P.1 (gamma) and B.1.617.2 (delta) significantly escaped natural infection-mediated neutralization, with an average of 4.1-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6-4.7-fold), 1.8-fold (1.4-2.4-fold), and 3.2-fold (2.4-4.1-fold) reduction in live virus neutralization assay, while neutralizing titers against B.1.1.7 (alpha) decreased slightly (1.4-fold [95% CI: 1.2-1.6-fold]). Serum from vaccinees also led to significant reductions in neutralization of B.1.351 across different platforms, with an average of 7.1-fold (95% CI: 5.5-9.0-fold) for nonreplicating vector platform, 4.1-fold (3.7-4.4-fold) for messenger RNA platform, and 2.5-fold (1.7-2.9-fold) for protein subunit platform. Neutralizing antibody levels induced by messenger RNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 variants were similar to, or higher, than that derived from naturally infected individuals.

[Evaluating the real-world vaccine effectiveness using a regression discontinuity design]

Estimating the actual real-world effectiveness of the vaccine is an essential part of the post-marketing evaluation. This regression discontinuity design (RDD) using observational data is designed to quantify the effect of an intervention when eligibility for the intervention is based on a defined cutoff as age, making it suited to estimate vaccine effects. This approach can avoid the high cost and ethical issues; overcome difficulties in the organization and practice process in randomized controlled trials, which leads to a higher level of causal inference evidence and more realistic results. Here, we describe key features of RDD in general, and then specific scenarios, with examples, to illustrate that RDD are an essential tool for advancing our understanding of vaccine effects.

Optical Imaging in the Diagnosis of OPMDs Malignant Transformation

Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) are a heterogeneous group of oral lesions with a variable risk of malignant transformation to oral squamous cell carcinoma. The current OPMDs malignant transformation screening depends on conventional oral examination (COE) and is confirmed by biopsy and histologic examination. However, early malignant lesions with subtle mucosal changes are easily unnoticed by COE based on visual inspection and palpation. Optical techniques have been used to determine the biological structure, composition, and function of cells and tissues noninvasively by analyzing the changes in their optical properties. The oral epithelium and stroma undergo persistent structural, functional, and biochemical alterations during malignant transformation, leading to variations in optical tissue properties; optical techniques are thus powerful tools for detecting OPMDs malignant transformation. The optical imaging methods already used to detect OPMDs malignant transformation in vivo include autofluorescence imaging, narrowband imaging, confocal reflectance microscopy, and optical coherence tomography. They exhibit advantages over COE in detecting biochemical or morphologic changes at the molecular or cellular level in vivo; however, limitations also exist. This article comprehensively reviews the various real-time in vivo optical imaging methods used in the adjunctive diagnosis of OPMDs malignant transformation. We focus on the principles of these techniques, review their clinical application, and compare and summarize their advantages and disadvantages. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of current challenges and future directions of this field.

Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China

BACKGROUND

To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided.

RESULTS

We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021 and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimated that, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 90% against the infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require a coverage of 93% or higher of the Chinese population. However, even when vaccine-induced herd immunity is not reached, we estimated that vaccination programs can reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 50-62% in case of an all-or-nothing vaccine model and an epidemic starts to unfold on December 1, 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should be taken to increase population's confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to develop highly efficacious vaccines for a wide age range.

GP73 is a TBC-domain Rab GTPase-activating protein contributing to the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without obesity

The prevalence of non-obese nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing worldwide with unclear etiology and pathogenesis. Here, we show GP73, a Golgi protein upregulated in livers from patients with a variety of liver diseases, exhibits Rab GTPase-activating protein (GAP) activity regulating ApoB export. Upon regular-diet feeding, liver-GP73-high mice display non-obese NAFLD phenotype, characterized by reduced body weight, intrahepatic lipid accumulation, and gradual insulin resistance development, none of which can be recapitulated in liver-GAP inactive GP73-high mice. Common and specific gene expression signatures associated with GP73-induced non-obese NAFLD and high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obese NAFLD are revealed. Notably, metformin inactivates the GAP activity of GP73 and alleviates GP73-induced non-obese NAFLD. GP73 is pathologically elevated in NAFLD individuals without obesity, and GP73 blockade improves whole-body metabolism in non-obese NAFLD mouse model. These findings reveal a pathophysiological role of GP73 in triggering non-obese NAFLD and may offer an opportunity for clinical intervention.

Dysregulation of lipid metabolism and transport contribute to the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here the authors identify GP73 as a TBC-domain Rab GTPase-activating protein that regulates very low-density lipoprotein export and promotes NAFLD development in mice.