Implementation and clinical utility of a Computer-Aided Risk Score for Mortality (CARM): a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

The Computer-Aided Risk Score for Mortality (CARM) estimates the risk of in-hospital mortality following acute admission to the hospital by automatically amalgamating physiological measures, blood tests, gender, age and COVID-19 status. Our aims were to implement the score with a small group of practitioners and understand their first-hand experience of interacting with the score in situ.

DESIGN

Pilot implementation evaluation study involving qualitative interviews.

SETTING

This study was conducted in one of the two National Health Service hospital trusts in the North of England in which the score was developed.

PARTICIPANTS

Medical, older person and ICU/anaesthetic consultants and specialist grade registrars (n=116) and critical outreach nurses (n=7) were given access to CARM. Nine interviews were conducted in total, with eight doctors and one critical care outreach nurse.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were given access to the CARM score, visible after login to the patients' electronic record, along with information about the development and intended use of the score.

RESULTS

Four themes and 14 subthemes emerged from reflexive thematic analysis: (1) current use (including support or challenge clinical judgement and decision making, communicating risk of mortality and professional curiosity); (2) barriers and facilitators to use (including litigation, resource needs, perception of the evidence base, strengths and limitations), (3) implementation support needs (including roll-out and integration, access, training and education); and (4) recommendations for development (including presentation and functionality and potential additional data). Barriers and facilitators to use, and recommendations for development featured highly across most interviews.

CONCLUSION

Our in situ evaluation of the pilot implementation of CARM demonstrated its scope in supporting clinical decision making and communicating risk of mortality between clinical colleagues and with service users. It suggested to us barriers to implementation of the score. Our findings may support those seeking to develop, implement or improve the adoption of risk scores.

Effects of vitamin D insufficiency on sepsis severity and risk of hospitalisation in emergency department patients: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) level on sepsis severity and risk of hospitalisation in emergency department (ED) septic patients when categorised as vitamin D insufficiency according to the level of 25(OH)D<30 ng/mL.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

A 900-bed academic tertiary hospital with an ED residency training programme in Bangkok, Thailand.

PARTICIPANTS

An observational study of 101 ED septic patients aged ≥18 years was conducted between March 2015 and September 2015.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The level of 25(OH)D was analysed and correlated with sepsis severity assessed by Acute Physiology Age Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) and Mortality in ED Sepsis (MEDS) scores, and the risk of hospitalisation.

RESULTS

One hundred and one patients were enrolled, with an average age of 68±18 years, 56% female, APACHE-II score of 14±6, MEDS score of 8±5 and 25(OH)D level was 19±11 ng/mL. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency in our ED septic patients was 87% and the admission rate was 88%. A significant association between 25(OH)D level and sepsis severity scores was found, which was measured by APACHE-II and MEDS scores (-0.29; 95% CI -0.41 to -0.17, p<0.001 and -0.15; 95% CI -0.25 to -0.06, p=0.002, respectively). However, vitamin D insufficiency could not determine hospitalisation (OR=1.42; 95% CI 0.27 to 7.34; p=0.68 and OR=1.65; 95% CI 0.07 to 41.7; p=0.76 when adjusted by baseline covariates).

CONCLUSIONS

The vitamin D insufficiency of septic patients in our ED was high and had a significant negative association with sepsis severity. However, vitamin D insufficiency status cannot predict the hospitalisation of septic patients who were admitted to the ED. Further research is needed to investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation in the ED in affecting sepsis severity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

TCTR20151127001.

Development and validation of a mechanical power-oriented prediction model of weaning failure in mechanically ventilated patients: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a mechanical power (MP)-oriented prediction model of weaning failure in mechanically ventilated patients.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data were collected from the large US Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) V.1.0, which integrates comprehensive clinical data from 76 540 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions from 2008 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 3695 patients with invasive mechanical ventilation for more than 24 hours and weaned with T-tube ventilation strategies were enrolled from the MIMIC-IV database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME

Weaning failure.

RESULTS

All eligible patients were randomised into development cohorts (n=2586, 70%) and validation cohorts (n=1109, 30%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the development cohort showed that positive end-expiratory pressure, dynamic lung compliance, MP, inspired oxygen concentration, length of ICU stay and invasive mechanical ventilation duration were independent predictors of weaning failure. Calibration curves showed good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes. The prediction model showed accurate discrimination in the development and validation cohorts, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.812 to 0.844) and 0.833 (95% CI: 0.809 to 0.857), respectively. Decision curve analysis indicated that the predictive model was clinically beneficial.

CONCLUSION

The MP-oriented model of weaning failure accurately predicts the risk of weaning failure in mechanical ventilation patients and provides valuable information for clinicians making decisions on weaning.

Practical Anemia Bundle for Sustained Blood Recovery (PABST-BR) in critical illness: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Anaemia is highly prevalent in critical illness and is associated with impaired outcomes during and after hospitalisation. However, the impact of interventions designed to attenuate or treat anaemia during critical illness on post-hospitalisation haemoglobin recovery and functional outcomes is unclear.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Practical Anemia Bundle for Sustained Blood Recovery (PABST-BR) clinical trial is a pragmatic, open-label, parallel group, single-centre, randomised clinical trial assessing the impact of a multifaceted anaemia prevention and treatment strategy versus standard care for improvement of haemoglobin concentrations and functional outcomes after critical illness. The intervention, which will be delivered early in critical illness for those with moderate-to-severe anaemia (ie, haemoglobin <100 g/L), includes three components: (1) optimised phlebotomy, (2) clinical decision support and (3) pharmacological anaemia treatment directed at the underlying aetiology of anaemia. In-person assessments will occur at 1 and 3 months post-hospitalisation for laboratory evaluations and multidimensional functional outcome assessments. The primary outcome is differences in haemoglobin concentrations between groups, with secondary endpoints of anaemia-related fatigue, physical function, cognition, mental health, quality of life, phlebotomy volumes and frequency, transfusions, readmissions and mortality through 1-year post-hospitalisation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, USA. A Data Safety Monitoring Plan has been created in accordance with the policies of the Institutional Review Board and the study funder, the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The study will comply with NIH data sharing and dissemination policies. Results will be presented at national and international meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals. Designing and testing strategies to optimise haemoglobin recovery and improve functional outcomes after critical illness remain important research gaps. The PABST-BR trial will inform the development of a larger multicentre clinical trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05167734.

Thirst in adult patients in the intensive care unit: protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Thirst is one of the most bothersome symptoms experienced by intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Effective diagnosis and management of thirst in the ICU is essential, particularly as patients are less sedated than previously and more aware of this problem. Currently, no overview of publications on thirst identification and management in ICU patients exists. The scoping review will address the broad question 'What is known about thirst as a symptom in adult critically ill patients?' It aims to provide an overview of the causes and risk factors, diagnosis and measurement, the symptom dimensions and its interaction with other symptoms, and thirst management.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The review will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology framework to guide the process and will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews. Methods include: defining the review questions, eligibility criteria, concepts of interest and context; and outlining the search strategy, study selection process, data extraction and analysis. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL will be searched from inception to April 2022.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required, as the scoping review will synthesise information from available publications. The scoping review will be submitted for publication to a scientific journal, presented at relevant conferences and disseminated as part of future workshops with ICU support groups and the critical care professional community.

Resource use, availability and cost in the provision of critical care in Tanzania: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Critical care is essential in saving lives of critically ill patients, however, provision of critical care across lower resource settings can be costly, fragmented and heterogenous. Despite the urgent need to scale up the provision of critical care, little is known about its availability and cost. Here, we aim to systematically review and identify reported resource use, availability and costs for the provision of critical care and the nature of critical care provision in Tanzania.

DESIGN

This is a systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase and Global Health databases were searched covering the period 2010 to 17 November 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included studies that reported on forms of critical care offered, critical care services offered and/or costs and resources used in the provision of care in Tanzania published from 2010.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Quality assessment of the articles and data extraction was done by two independent researchers. The Reference Case for Estimating the Costs of Global Health Services and Interventions was used to assess quality of included studies. A narrative synthesis of extracted data was conducted. Costs were adjusted and reported in 2019 US$ and TZS using the World Bank GDP deflators.

RESULTS

A total 31 studies were found to fulfil the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Critical care identified in Tanzania was categorised into: intensive care unit (ICU) delivered critical care and non-ICU critical care. The availability of ICU delivered critical care was limited to urban settings whereas non-ICU critical care was found in rural and urban settings. Paediatric critical care equipment was more scarce than equipment for adults. 15 studies reported on the costs of services related to critical care yet no study reported an average or unit cost of critical care. Costs of medication, equipment (eg, oxygen, personal protective equipment), services and human resources were identified as inputs to specific critical care services in Tanzania.

CONCLUSION

There is limited evidence on the resource use, availability and costs of critical care in Tanzania. There is a strong need for further empirical research on critical care resources availability, utilisation and costs across specialties and hospitals of different level in low/middle-income countries like Tanzania to inform planning, priority setting and budgeting for critical care services.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020221923.

Correlation between chest CT and RT-PCR testing in India's second COVID-19 wave: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of chest CT in clinically suspected patients with COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) as the reference standard and establish the correlation between CT Severity Score (CTSS) and RT-PCR results.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective cohort study. Single-centre tertiary care hospital-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled 112 clinically suspected patients with COVID-19 between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021. Chest CT and RT-PCR tests were performed for all patients at a time interval of no longer than 7 days between the two tests. Patients with prior chronic respiratory illnesses were excluded. The diagnostic performance of chest CT was evaluated using RT-PCR as the reference standard. The CTSS was calculated for all patients with positive chest CT findings, and it was correlated with results of the RT-PCR assay.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures were determination of the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and diagnostic accuracy of chest CT using RT-PCR as the standard of reference. The correlation between CTSS and RT-PCR was the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

85/112 (76%) patients tested positive on the RT-PCR whereas 91/112 (81%) had chest CT findings typical of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Chest CT had a sensitivity of 90.6% (95% CI 82.3% to 95.8%), a specificity of 48.1% (95% CI 28.7% to 68.0%), a PPV of 84.6% (95% CI 79.2% to 88.8%), an NPV of 61.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 77.8%) and an accuracy of 80.4% (95% CI 71.8% to 87.3%). There was a significant correlation between the CTSS and RT-PCR positivity (p value=0.003).

CONCLUSION

In our experience, chest CT has a good sensitivity and provides a reliable diagnostic tool for moderate-to-severe COVID-19 cases in resource limited settings.

Effectiveness and safety of fibrinolytic therapy in critically ill patients with COVID-19 with ARDS: protocol for a prospective meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The use of fibrinolytic therapy has been proposed in severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). During the COVID-19 pandemic, anticoagulation has received special attention due to the frequent findings of microthrombi and fibrin deposits in the lungs and other organs. Therefore, the use of fibrinolysis has been regarded as a potential rescue therapy in these patients. In this prospective meta-analysis, we plan to synthesise evidence from ongoing clinical trials and thus assess whether fibrinolytic therapy can improve the ventilation/perfusion ratio in patients with severe COVID-19-caused ARDS as compared with standard of care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol was registered in PROSPERO. All randomised controlled trials and prospective observational trials that compare fibrinolytic therapy with standard of care in adult patients with COVID-19 and define their primary or secondary outcome as improvement in oxygenation and/or gas exchange, or mortality will be considered eligible. Safety outcomes will include bleeding event rate and requirement for transfusion. Our search on 25 January 2022 identified five eligible ongoing clinical trials. A formal search of MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, CENTRAL will be performed every month to identify published results and to search for further trials that meet our eligibility criteria.

DISSEMINATION

This could be the first qualitative and quantitative synthesis summarising evidence of the efficacy and safety of fibrinolytic therapy in critically ill patients with COVID-19. We plan to publish our results in peer-reviewed journals.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021285281.

External validation of the ProVent score for prognostication of 1-year mortality of critically ill patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation: a single-centre, retrospective observational study in Austria

OBJECTIVES

In critically ill patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days, 1-year mortality can be estimated using the ProVent score, calculated from four variables (age, platelet count, vasopressor use and renal replacement therapy). We aimed to externally validate discrimination and calibration of the ProVent score and, if necessary, to update its underlying regression model.

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational, single-centre study.

SETTING

11 intensive care units at one tertiary academic hospital.

PATIENTS

780 critically ill adult patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

1-year mortality after intensive care unit discharge.

RESULTS

380 patients (49%) had died after 1 year. One-year mortality for ProVent scores from 0 to 5 were: 15%, 27%, 57%, 66%, 72% and 76%. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ProVent probability model was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.79), calibration intercept was -0.43 (95% CI -0.59 to -0.27) and calibration slope was 0.76 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.89). Model recalibration and extension by inclusion of three additional predictors (total bilirubin concentration, enteral nutrition and surgical status) improved model discrimination and calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the original ProVent model had negative net benefit, which was avoided with the extended ProVent model.

CONCLUSIONS

The ProVent probability model had adequate discrimination but was miscalibrated in our patient cohort and, as such, could potentially be harmful. Use of the extended ProVent score developed by us could possibly alleviate this concern.

Glucocorticoid receptor expression in patients with cardiac arrest in the early period after the return of spontaneous circulation: a prospective observational single-centre study

OBJECTIVES

Rapid changes in glucocorticoid (GC) levels and adrenal insufficiency are related to the development of post-cardiac arrest (CA) syndrome. However, GC receptor (GR) expression changes have not been studied. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the association of early changes in GR expression and prognosis and immune response in patients who experienced CA.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Emergency department.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients (85) in the early period of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after CA were admitted between October 2018 and October 2019. After a physical examination, age-matched and sex-matched healthy individuals (40) were recruited for the control group.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

GR expression and cell counts of circulatory T and B lymphocytes, natural killer cells and regulatory T (Treg) cells were assessed. Plasma total cortisol and adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) levels were also tested.

RESULTS

All cell counts were lower, and plasma total cortisol levels were higher (p<0.001) in patients who experienced CA than in the healthy control group. GR expression in Treg cells and CD3+CD4+ T lymphocytes were not significantly different, but the mean fluorescence intensity and GR expression in other cells were lower in patients who experienced CA (p<0.05) than in the healthy control group. ACTH levels were not different. There were no significant differences between survivors and non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that GR expression and cell counts rapidly decreased, whereas plasma total cortisol levels increased in the early period after ROSC among patients who experienced CA. Our findings provide important information about GR level and function, and immunosuppressive status in these patients. Assessing GR expression in patients who experienced CA may help screening for those who are more sensitive to GC therapy.

The effect of reparixin on survival in patients at high risk for in-hospital mortality: a meta-analysis of randomized trials

Introduction

A great number of anti-inflammatory drugs have been suggested in the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Reparixin, a non-competitive allosteric inhibitor of the CXCL8 (IL-8) receptors C-X-C chemokine receptor type 1 (CXCR1) and C-X-C chemokine receptor type 2 (CXCR2), has already been tried out as a treatment in different critical settings. Due to the contrasting existing literature, we decided to perform the present meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to investigate the effect of the use of reparixin on survival in patients at high risk for in-hospital mortality.

Methods

We created a search strategy to include any human RCTs performed with reparixin utilization in patients at high risk for in-hospital mortality, excluding oncological patients. Two trained, independent authors searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) for appropriate studies. Furthermore, references of review articles and included RCTs were screened to identify more studies. No language restrictions were enforced. To assess the risk of bias of included trials, the Revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials (RoB 2) was used.

Results

Overall, six studies were included and involved 406 patients (220 received reparixin and 186 received the comparator). The all-cause mortality in the reparixin group was significantly lower than that in the control group [5/220 (2.3%) in the reparixin group vs. 12/186 (6.5%) in the control group, odds ratio = 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.96), p-value for effect 0.04, p for heterogeneity 0.20, I2 = 36%]. In addition, no difference in the rate of pneumonia, sepsis, or non-serious infections was shown between the two groups.

Conclusion

Our meta-analysis of randomized trials suggests that short-term inhibition of CXCL8 activity improved survival in patients at high risk for in-hospital mortality without increasing the risk of infection.

Meta-analysis registration

PROSPERO, identifier CRD42021254467.

Exploring physician approaches to conflict resolution in end-of-life decisions in the adult intensive care unit: protocol for a systematic review of qualitative research

INTRODUCTION

Conflict is unfortunately well-documented in the adult intensive care unit (AICU). In the context of end-of-life (EOL) decision-making (ie, the withdrawal or withholding of life-sustaining treatment), conflict commonly occurs when a consensus cannot be reached between the healthcare team and the patient's family on the 'best interests' of the critically ill, incapacitated patient. While existing literature has identified potential methods for conflict resolution, it is less clear how these approaches are perceived and used by stakeholders in the EOL decision-making process. We aim to explore this by systematically reviewing and synthesising the published evidence, which addresses the following research question: what does existing qualitative research reveal about physician approaches to addressing conflict arising in EOL decisions in the AICU?

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Peer-reviewed qualitative studies (retrieved from MEDLINE, Project Muse, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and LILACS) examining conflict and dispute resolution in the context of EOL decisions in the AICU setting will be included. Two reviewers will independently screen either all or a randomly selected sample of studies, with a third reviewer independently screening studies of uncertain eligibility. The 'thematic synthesis' approach will be employed to analyse the resulting data. The quality of included papers will be assessed using the 2018 Mixed-Methods Assessment Tool. The 'Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations-Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research' approach will be used to assess our confidence in the findings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this review, as only published data will be included. We anticipate that the findings will be of interest to healthcare professionals working in AICUs and individuals working in bioethics, given the ethically contentious nature of EOL decisions. The findings will be disseminated at academic conferences and through open-access publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021193769.

Electronic nudge tool technology used in the critical care and peri-anaesthetic setting: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Electronic clinical decision support (eCDS) tools are used to assist clinical decision making. Using computer-generated algorithms with evidence-based rule sets, they alert clinicians to events that require attention. eCDS tools generating alerts using nudge principles present clinicians with evidence-based clinical treatment options to guide clinician behaviour without restricting freedom of choice. Although eCDS tools have shown beneficial outcomes, challenges exist with regard to their acceptability most likely related to implementation. Furthermore, the pace of progress in this field has allowed little time to effectively evaluate the experience of the intended user. This scoping review aims to examine the development and implementation strategies, and the impact on the end user of eCDS tools that generate alerts using nudge principles, specifically in the critical care and peri-anaesthetic setting.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This review will follow the Arksey and O'Malley framework. A search will be conducted of literature published in the last 15 years in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, Web of Science and SAGE databases. Citation screening and data extraction will be performed by two independent reviewers. Extracted data will include context, e-nudge tool type and design features, development, implementation strategies and associated impact on end users.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This scoping review will synthesise published literature therefore ethical approval is not required. Review findings will be published in topic relevant peer-reviewed journals and associated conferences.

Understanding the use of the National Early Warning Score 2 in acute care settings: a realist review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Failure to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in an appropriate and timely manner has been highlighted as a global patient safety concern. Early Warning Scores (EWSs) using vital signs were introduced to address this concern, with the aim of getting the patient timely and appropriate treatment. The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is in use across the NHS, and many other settings globally. While patient improvements have been shown, research has identified that the NEWS2 is not always used as intended. Therefore, this review will use a realist approach to understand what the mechanisms are that influence appropriate use (or not) of the NEWS2 in acute care settings, how, for whom and in which contexts. The findings will inform clinicians of what helps and/or hinders appropriate use of the NEWS2 in clinical practice, thus helping to facilitate successful implementation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Our realist review will follow Pawson's iterative six step process: (1) Development of initial programme theory. (2) Searching the literature; an information scientist will develop, pilot and refine the search strategy. A systematic search will be completed, based on subject relevancy on the following databases: Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Medline, Embase (OvidSP), Web of Science (Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Joanna Briggs Institute, Ethos, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global, and Google Scholar for documents dating from 1997 (date of the first published EWS) to present. To retrieve additional relevant data 'snowballing' (finding references and authors by hand, contacting authors, searching reference lists and citation-tracking using Google Scholar) will be used. Inclusion criteria include all documents (including grey literature) that relate to the use of EWSs/NEWS2 in the English language only. Documents set in the paediatric, maternity and primary care settings will be excluded. (3) Selecting documents and quality appraisal. (4) Extracting and organising the data. (5) Synthesising the data. (6) Disseminating the findings. We will recruit a group of stakeholders comprised of experienced clinicians who use the NEWS2 as part of their clinical practice to provide feedback throughout the review. Step 1 has already begun with the development of an initial programme theory. This initial programme theory presents how the NEWS2 is supposed to work (or not), it will now be developed, tested and refined.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this study as it is secondary research. Dissemination will include a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations. Findings will also be amplified through social media platforms with user friendly summaries. Our stakeholder group will also contribute to dissemination of findings in their clinical areas and among existing networks.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022304497.

Validation of a delirium predictive model in patients admitted to surgical intensive care units: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To internally and externally validate a delirium predictive model for adult patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) following surgery.

DESIGN

A prospective, observational, multicentre study.

SETTING

Three university-affiliated teaching hospitals in Thailand.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged over 18 years were enrolled if they were admitted to a surgical ICU (SICU) and had the surgery within 7 days before SICU admission.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Postoperative delirium was assessed using the Thai version of the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU. The assessments commenced on the first day after the patient's operation and continued for 7 days, or until either discharge from the ICU or the death of the patient. Validation was performed of the previously developed delirium predictive model: age+(5×SOFA)+(15×benzodiazepine use)+(20×DM)+(20×mechanical ventilation)+(20×modified IQCODE>3.42).

RESULTS

In all, 380 SICU patients were recruited. Internal validation on 150 patients with the mean age of 75±7.5 years resulted in an area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.76 (0.683 to 0.837). External validation on 230 patients with the mean age of 57±17.3 years resulted in an AUROC of 0.85 (0.789 to 0.906). The AUROC of all validation cohorts was 0.83 (0.785 to 0.872). The optimum cut-off value to discriminate between a high and low probability of postoperative delirium in SICU patients was 115. This cut-off offered the highest value for Youden's index (0.50), the best AUROC, and the optimum values for sensitivity (78.9%) and specificity (70.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed by the previous study was able to predict the occurrence of postoperative delirium in critically ill surgical patients admitted to SICUs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Thai Clinical Trail Registry (TCTR20180105001).

Prognostic value of elevated lactate dehydrogenase in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase and EuropePMC on 19 November 2020. The outcome of interest was composite poor outcome, defined as a combined endpoint of mortality, severity, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and need for intensive care unit care. Severity followed the included studies' criteria.

RESULTS

There are 10 399 patients from 21 studies. Elevated LDH was present in 44% (34%-53%) of the patients. Meta-regression analysis showed that diabetes was correlated with elevated LDH (OR 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.02), p=0.038), but not age (p=0.710), male (p=0.068) and hypertension (p=0.969). Meta-analysis showed that elevated LDH was associated with composite poor outcome (OR 5.33 (95% CI 3.90 to 7.31), p<0.001; I2: 77.5%). Subgroup analysis showed that elevated LDH increased mortality (OR 4.22 (95% CI 2.49 to 7.14), p<0.001; I2: 89%). Elevated LDH has a sensitivity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.85), specificity of 0.69 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.78), positive likelihood ratio of 2.4 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.9), negative likelihood ratio of 0.38 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.55), diagnostic OR of 6 (95% CI 4 to 9) and area under curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.80). Elevated LDH would indicate a 44% posterior probability and non-elevated LDH would in indicate 11% posterior probability for poor prognosis. Meta-regression analysis showed that age, male, hypertension and diabetes did not contribute to the heterogeneity of the analyses.

CONCLUSION

LDH was associated with poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020221594.

Multicentre observational study on practice of prehospital management of hypotensive trauma patients: the SPITFIRE study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Major haemorrhage after injury is the leading cause of preventable death for trauma patients. Recent advancements in trauma care suggest damage control resuscitation (DCR) should start in the prehospital phase following major trauma. In Italy, Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) assist the most complex injuries and deliver the most advanced interventions including DCR. The effect size of DCR delivered prehospitally on survival remains however unclear.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an investigator-initiated, large, national, prospective, observational cohort study aiming to recruit >500 patients in haemorrhagic shock after major trauma. We aim at describing the current practice of hypotensive trauma management as well as propose the creation of a national registry of patients with haemorrhagic shock.

PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

the exploration of the effect size of the variation in clinical practice on the mortality of hypotensive trauma patients. The primary outcome measure will be 24 hours, 7-day and 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes include: association of prehospital factors and survival from injury to hospital admission, hospital length of stay, prehospital and in-hospital complications, hospital outcomes; use of prehospital ultrasound; association of prehospital factors and volume of first 24-hours blood product administration and evaluation of the prevalence of use, appropriateness, haemodynamic, metabolic and effects on mortality of prehospital blood transfusions.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

age >18 years, traumatic injury attended by a HEMS team including a physician, a systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg or weak/absent radial pulse and a confirmed or clinically likely diagnosis of major haemorrhage. Prehospital and in-hospital variables will be collected to include key times, clinical findings, examinations and interventions. Patients will be followed-up until day 30 from admission. The Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended will be collected at 30 days from admission.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Ethics committee 'Comitato Etico di Area Vasta Emilia Centro'. Data will be disseminated to the scientific community by abstracts submitted to international conferences and by original articles submitted to peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04760977.

Trends in bacterial sepsis incidence and mortality in France between 2015 and 2019 based on National Health Data System (Système National des données de Santé (SNDS)): a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide a case definition of sepsis of presumed bacterial aetiology based on 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes, to assess trends in sepsis incidence and mortality between 2015 and 2019 in France, and to describe the characteristics of affected patients and hospital stays.

DESIGN

Nationwide, population-based, retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Metropolitan France between 2015 and 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Between 2015 and 2019, 1 224 433 patients with sepsis of presumed bacterial aetiology were selected from the French National Hospital Discharge Database (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information) and were identified from corresponding ICD-10 codes for explicit sepsis or implicit sepsis.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Annual overall and age-specific and gender-specific incidence and 95% CI, as well as trends in sepsis incidence and mortality, were estimated. Comorbidities, length of hospital stay and outcomes were described.

RESULTS

The sex-standardised and age-standardised incidence per 100 000 (95% CI) increased from 357 (356.0 to 359.0) in 2015 to 403 (401.9 to 405.0) in 2019 and remained higher for males compared with females. Children under 1 year and patients over 75 years consistently had the highest incidence. The most common comorbidities were cancer and chronic heart failure. The median hospital length of stay was 12 days. Most patients came from home, but only half returned home after their hospital stay and approximately 15% were discharged to long-term care. In-hospital mortality was about 25% and declined along the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Medico-administrative databases can be used to provide nationwide estimates of the in-hospital burden of bacterial sepsis. The results confirm the high burden of sepsis in France. These data should be complemented by estimating the additional burden associated with fungal and viral infections during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Kenya: a multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess outcomes of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and to determine the predictors of mortality.

SETTING

This study was conducted in six facilities, which included both government and privately run secondary and tertiary level facilities in the central and coastal regions of Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled 787 reverse transcriptase-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV2-infected persons. Patients whose records could not be accessed were excluded.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was COVID-19-related death. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine factors related to in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Data from patients with 787 COVID-19 were available. The median age was 43 years (IQR 30-53), with 505 (64%) being men. At admission, 455 (58%) were symptomatic with an additional 63 (9%) developing clinical symptoms during hospitalisation. The most common symptoms were cough (337, 43%), loss of taste or smell (279, 35%) and fever (126, 16%). Comorbidities were reported in 340 (43%), with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and HIV documented in 130 (17%), 116 (15%), 53 (7%), respectively. 90 (11%) were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for a mean of 11 days, 52 (7%) were ventilated with a mean of 10 days, 107 (14%) died. The risk of death increased with age (HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.19)) for persons >60 years compared with those <60 years old; having comorbidities (HR 2.34 (1.68 to 3.25)) and among men (HR 1.76 (1.27 to 2.44)) compared with women. Elevated white cell count and aspartate aminotransferase were associated with higher risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death from COVID-19 is high among older patients, those with comorbidities and among men. Clinical parameters including patient clinical signs, haematology and liver function tests were associated with risk of death and may guide stratification of high-risk patients.

COVID-19-related dynamic coagulation disturbances and anticoagulation strategies using conventional D-dimer and point-of-care Sonoclot tests: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Coagulation changes associated with COVID-19 suggest the presence of a hypercoagulable state with pulmonary microthrombosis and thromboembolic complications. We assessed the dynamic association of COVID-19-related coagulation abnormalities with respiratory failure and mortality.

DESIGN

Single-centre, prospective cohort study with descriptive analysis and logistic regression.

SETTING

Tertiary care hospital, North India.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission between August 2020 and November 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We compared the coagulation abnormalities using standard coagulation tests like prothrombin time, D-dimer, platelet count, etc and point-of-care global coagulation test, Sonoclot (glass beaded(gb) and heparinase-treated(h)). Incidence of thromboembolic or bleeding events and presence of endogenous heparinoids were assessed. Cox proportional Hazards test was used to assess the predictors of 28-day mortality.

MEASUREMENT

All patients underwent Sonoclot (glass beaded) test at admission apart from the routine investigations. In patients at risk of thromboembolic or bleeding phenomena, paired tests were performed at day 1 and 3 with Sonoclot. Activated clotting time (ACT) <110 s and peak amplitude >75 units were used as the cut-off for hypercoagulable state. Presence of heparin-like effect (HLE) was defined by a correction of ACT ≥40 s in h-Sonoclot.

RESULTS

Of 215 patients admitted to ICU, we included 74 treatment naive subjects. A procoagulant profile was seen in 45.5% (n=5), 32.4% (n=11) and 20.7% (n=6) in low-flow, high-flow and invasive ventilation groups. Paired Sonoclot assays in a subgroup of 33 patients demonstrated the presence of HLE in 17 (51.5%) and 20 (62.5%) at day 1 and 3, respectively. HLE (day 1) was noted in 59% of those who bled during the disease course. Mortality was observed only in the invasive ventilation group (16, 55.2%) with overall mortality of 21.6%. HLE predicted the need for mechanical ventilation (HR 1.2 CI 1.04 to 1.4 p=0.00). On multivariate analysis, the presence of HLE (HR 1.01; CI 1.006 to 1.030; p=0.025), increased C reactive protein (HR 1.040; CI 1.020 to 1.090; p=0.014), decreased platelet function (HR 0.901; CI 0.702 to 1.100 p=0.045) predicted mortality at 28days.

CONCLUSION

HLE contributed to hypocoagulable effect and associated with the need for invasive ventilation and mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT04668404; ClinicalTrials.gov.in. Available from https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04668404.

Influence of socioeconomic status on functional recovery after ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2: a multicentre, observational study

INTRODUCTION

Prognosis of patients with COVID-19 depends on the severity of the pulmonary affection. The most severe cases may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which is associated with a risk of long-term repercussions on respiratory function and neuromuscular outcomes. The functional repercussions of severe forms of COVID-19 may have a major impact on quality of life, and impair the ability to return to work or exercise. Social inequalities in healthcare may influence prognosis, with socially vulnerable individuals more likely to develop severe forms of disease. We describe here the protocol for a prospective, multicentre study that aims to investigate the influence of social vulnerability on functional recovery in patients who were hospitalised in intensive care for ARDS caused by COVID-19. This study will also include an embedded qualitative study that aims to describe facilitators and barriers to compliance with rehabilitation, describe patients' health practices and identify social representations of health, disease and care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The "Functional Recovery From Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) Due to COVID-19: Influence of Socio-Economic Status" (RECOVIDS) study is a mixed-methods, observational, multicentre cohort study performed during the routine follow-up of post-intensive care unit (ICU) functional recovery after ARDS. All patients admitted to a participating ICU for PCR-proven SARS-CoV-2 infection and who underwent chest CT scan at the initial phase AND who received respiratory support (mechanical or not) or high-flow nasal oxygen, AND had ARDS diagnosed by the Berlin criteria will be eligible. The primary outcome is the presence of lung sequelae at 6 months after ICU discharge, defined either by alterations on pulmonary function tests, oxygen desaturation during a standardised 6 min walk test or fibrosis-like pulmonary findings on chest CT. Patients will be considered to be socially disadvantaged if they have an "Evaluation de la Précarité et des Inégalités de santé dans les Centres d'Examen de Santé" (EPICES) score ≥30.17 at inclusion.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol and the informed consent form were approved by an independent ethics committee (Comité de Protection des Personnes Sud Méditerranée II) on 10 July 2020 (2020-A02014-35). All patients will provide informed consent before participation. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international congresses.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04556513.

Impact of employing primary healthcare professionals in emergency department triage on patient flow outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To identify, critically appraise and summarise evidence on the impact of employing primary healthcare professionals (PHCPs: family physicians/general practitioners (GPs), nurse practitioners (NP) and nurses with increased authority) in the emergency department (ED) triage, on patient flow outcomes.

METHODS

We searched Medline (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), Cochrane Library (Wiley) and CINAHL (EBSCO) (inception to January 2020). Our primary outcome was the time to provider initial assessment (PIA). Secondary outcomes included time to triage, proportion of patients leaving without being seen (LWBS), length of stay (ED LOS), proportion of patients leaving against medical advice (LAMA), number of repeat ED visits and patient satisfaction. Two independent reviewers selected studies, extracted data and assessed study quality using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence quality assessment tool.

RESULTS

From 23 973 records, 40 comparative studies including 10 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 13 pre-post studies were included. PHCP interventions were led by NP (n=14), GP (n=3) or nurses with increased authority (n=23) at triage. In all studies, PHCP-led intervention effectiveness was compared with the traditional nurse-led triage model. Median duration of the interventions was 6 months. Study quality was generally low (confounding bias); 7 RCTs were classified as moderate quality. Most studies reported that PHCP-led triage interventions decreased the PIA (13/14), ED LOS (29/30), proportion of patients LWBS (8/10), time to triage (3/3) and repeat ED visits (5/6), and increased the patient satisfaction (8/10). The proportion of patients LAMA did not differ between groups (3/3). Evidence from RCTs (n=8) as well as other study designs showed a significant decrease in ED LOS favouring the PHCP-led interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, PHCP-led triage interventions improved ED patient flow metrics. There was a significant decrease in ED LOS irrespective of the study design, favouring the PHCP-led interventions. Evidence from well-designed high-quality RCTs is required prior to widespread implementation.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020148053.

Impact of targeted hypothermia in expanded-criteria organ donors on recipient kidney-graft function: study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial (HYPOREME)

INTRODUCTION

Expanded-criteria donors (ECDs) are used to reduce the shortage of kidneys for transplantation. However, kidneys from ECDs are associated with an increased risk of delayed graft function (DGF), a risk factor for allograft loss and mortality. HYPOREME will be a multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing targeted hypothermia to normothermia in ECDs, in a country where the use of machine perfusion for organ storage is the standard of care. We hypothesise that hypothermia will decrease the incidence of DGF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

HYPOREME is a multicentre RCT comparing the effect on kidney function in recipients of targeted hypothermia (34°C-35°C) and normothermia (36.5°C-37.5°C) in the ECDs. The temperature intervention starts from randomisation and is maintained until aortic clamping in the operating room. We aim to enrol 289 ECDs in order to analyse the kidney function of 516 recipients in the 53 participating centres. The primary outcome is the occurrence of DGF in kidney recipients, defined as a requirement for renal replacement therapy within 7 days after transplantation (not counting a single session for hyperkalemia during the first 24 hours). Secondary outcomes include the proportion of patients with individual organs transplanted in each group; the number of organs transplanted from each ECD and the vital status and kidney function of the recipients 7 days, 28 days, 3 months and 1 year after transplantation. An interim analysis is planned after the enrolment of 258 kidney recipients.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial was approved by the ethics committee of the French Intensive Care Society (CE-SRLF-16-07) on 26 April 2016 and by the competent French authorities on 20 April 2016 (Comité de Protection des Personnes-TOURS-Région Centre-Ouest 1, registration #2016-S3). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented during national and international scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03098706.

Early mobilisation using a mobile patient lift in the intensive care unit: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

It is important to prevent the deterioration of activities of daily living to improve the long-term prognoses of patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The patients' conditions, along with the lack of human and technical resources, often become barriers to achieving early mobilisation after the introduction of mechanical ventilation. We plan to verify the usefulness of a mobile patient lift for early mobilisation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a single-centre, open-label, randomised controlled trial. The inclusion criteria are as follows: age ≥18 years, independent walking before admission and expected mechanical ventilation for at least 48 hours. The participants will be randomly divided into groups with (intervention group) or without (control group) a mobile lift protocol. A mobile lift will be used in the intervention group. The primary endpoint will be the number of days required to achieve an ICU mobility scale of ≥4 (standing position). The results of the two groups will be analysed using the Student's t-test.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study will be conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and with the approval of the Toho University Omori Medical Center Ethics Committee (approval number M20259). The results of this study will be presented internationally at academic conferences and published in the literature.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000044965.