Cancer Statistics, 2021

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence. Incidence data (through 2017) were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data (through 2018) were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2021, 1,898,160 new cancer cases and 608,570 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. After increasing for most of the 20th century, the cancer death rate has fallen continuously from its peak in 1991 through 2018, for a total decline of 31%, because of reductions in smoking and improvements in early detection and treatment. This translates to 3.2 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred if peak rates had persisted. Long-term declines in mortality for the 4 leading cancers have halted for prostate cancer and slowed for breast and colorectal cancers, but accelerated for lung cancer, which accounted for almost one-half of the total mortality decline from 2014 to 2018. The pace of the annual decline in lung cancer mortality doubled from 3.1% during 2009 through 2013 to 5.5% during 2014 through 2018 in men, from 1.8% to 4.4% in women, and from 2.4% to 5% overall. This trend coincides with steady declines in incidence (2.2%-2.3%) but rapid gains in survival specifically for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC). For example, NSCLC 2-year relative survival increased from 34% for persons diagnosed during 2009 through 2010 to 42% during 2015 through 2016, including absolute increases of 5% to 6% for every stage of diagnosis; survival for small cell lung cancer remained at 14% to 15%. Improved treatment accelerated progress against lung cancer and drove a record drop in overall cancer mortality, despite slowing momentum for other common cancers.

Cervical cancer screening for individuals at average risk: 2020 guideline update from the American Cancer Society

The American Cancer Society (ACS) recommends that individuals with a cervix initiate cervical cancer screening at age 25 years and undergo primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing every 5 years through age 65 years (preferred); if primary HPV testing is not available, then individuals aged 25 to 65 years should be screened with cotesting (HPV testing in combination with cytology) every 5 years or cytology alone every 3 years (acceptable) (strong recommendation). The ACS recommends that individuals aged >65 years who have no history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe disease within the past 25 years, and who have documented adequate negative prior screening in the prior 10 years, discontinue all cervical cancer screening (qualified recommendation). These new screening recommendations differ in 4 important respects compared with the 2012 recommendations: 1) The preferred screening strategy is primary HPV testing every 5 years, with cotesting and cytology alone acceptable where access to US Food and Drug Administration-approved primary HPV testing is not yet available; 2) the recommended age to start screening is 25 years rather than 21 years; 3) primary HPV testing, as well as cotesting or cytology alone when primary testing is not available, is recommended starting at age 25 years rather than age 30 years; and 4) the guideline is transitional, ie, options for screening with cotesting or cytology alone are provided but should be phased out once full access to primary HPV testing for cervical cancer screening is available without barriers. Evidence related to other relevant issues was reviewed, and no changes were made to recommendations for screening intervals, age or criteria for screening cessation, screening based on vaccination status, or screening after hysterectomy. Follow-up for individuals who screen positive for HPV and/or cytology should be in accordance with the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology risk-based management consensus guidelines for abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.

Improving the rate of colorectal cancer screening with the "80% in every community" campaign

ABSTRACT

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks third in both cancer diagnoses and cancer-related deaths in men and women in the United States. Fortunately, both incidence and deaths have declined due to the increased use of CRC screening to find and remove precancerous polyps and to diagnose CRC at earlier, more treatable stages. Deaths from CRC have shifted to a new demographic, with a recent increase in incidence of 2% per year in people younger than 55 years. The American Cancer Society has issued a qualified recommendation that screening start at the age of 45 years because of this increase in early-onset CRC. There are multiple CRC screening test options. Professional organizations vary in their screening guidelines, but regardless of these differences, screening has been shown to save lives. Currently, one out of every three adults aged 50-75 years are not screened as recommended. The National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable (NCRCRT) has placed a high priority on screening people who remain unscreened. Nurse practitioners can improve the screening rates in outpatient clinics and health systems by adopting the campaign, "80% in Every Community," which has a goal to reduce disparities and improve screening rates in underserved and rural populations. The NCRCRT resources will help clinics and health systems reach the screening goal of 80% in every community.

American Cancer Society guideline for diet and physical activity for cancer prevention

The American Cancer Society (ACS) publishes the Diet and Physical Activity Guideline to serve as a foundation for its communication, policy, and community strategies and, ultimately, to affect dietary and physical activity patterns among Americans. This guideline is developed by a national panel of experts in cancer research, prevention, epidemiology, public health, and policy, and reflects the most current scientific evidence related to dietary and activity patterns and cancer risk. The ACS guideline focuses on recommendations for individual choices regarding diet and physical activity patterns, but those choices occur within a community context that either facilitates or creates barriers to healthy behaviors. Therefore, this committee presents recommendations for community action to accompany the 4 recommendations for individual choices to reduce cancer risk. These recommendations for community action recognize that a supportive social and physical environment is indispensable if individuals at all levels of society are to have genuine opportunities to choose healthy behaviors. This 2020 ACS guideline is consistent with guidelines from the American Heart Association and the American Diabetes Association for the prevention of coronary heart disease and diabetes as well as for general health promotion, as defined by the 2015 to 2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and the 2018 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans.

Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, part I: National cancer statistics

BACKGROUND

The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States.

METHODS

Data on new cancer diagnoses during 2001 through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded and National Cancer Institute-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths during 2001 through 2017 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Trends in incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex, racial/ethnic group, and age were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the average annual percent change during the most recent 5 years (2012-2016 for incidence and 2013-2017 for mortality).

RESULTS

Overall, cancer incidence rates decreased 0.6% on average per year during 2012 through 2016, but trends differed by sex, racial/ethnic group, and cancer type. Among males, cancer incidence rates were stable overall and among non-Hispanic white males but decreased in other racial/ethnic groups; rates increased for 5 of the 17 most common cancers, were stable for 7 cancers (including prostate), and decreased for 5 cancers (including lung and bronchus [lung] and colorectal). Among females, cancer incidence rates increased during 2012 to 2016 in all racial/ethnic groups, increasing on average 0.2% per year; rates increased for 8 of the 18 most common cancers (including breast), were stable for 6 cancers (including colorectal), and decreased for 4 cancers (including lung). Overall, cancer death rates decreased 1.5% on average per year during 2013 to 2017, decreasing 1.8% per year among males and 1.4% per year among females. During 2013 to 2017, cancer death rates decreased for all cancers combined among both males and females in each racial/ethnic group, for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males (including lung and colorectal), and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females (including lung, colorectal, and breast). The largest declines in death rates were observed for melanoma of the skin (decreasing 6.1% per year among males and 6.3% among females) and lung (decreasing 4.8% per year among males and 3.7% among females). Among children younger than 15 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.8% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.4% per year during 2013 to 2017. Among adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 39 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.9% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.0% per year during 2013 to 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

Although overall cancer death rates continue to decline, incidence rates are leveling off among males and are increasing slightly among females. These trends reflect population changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices, and treatment advances. Many cancers can be prevented or treated effectively if they are found early. Population-based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to inform efforts to decrease the cancer burden in the United States and regularly monitor progress toward goals.

AACR Calls on Congress to Take Immediate Action against COVID-19 and Protect Patients with Cancer during the Pandemic

On March 30, 2020, the AACR Board of Directors provided a letter to the U.S. Congressional leadership on behalf of its members in response to the COVID-19 public health emergency.

Cancer statistics, 2020

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence. Incidence data (through 2016) were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data (through 2017) were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2020, 1,806,590 new cancer cases and 606,520 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. The cancer death rate rose until 1991, then fell continuously through 2017, resulting in an overall decline of 29% that translates into an estimated 2.9 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred if peak rates had persisted. This progress is driven by long-term declines in death rates for the 4 leading cancers (lung, colorectal, breast, prostate); however, over the past decade (2008-2017), reductions slowed for female breast and colorectal cancers, and halted for prostate cancer. In contrast, declines accelerated for lung cancer, from 3% annually during 2008 through 2013 to 5% during 2013 through 2017 in men and from 2% to almost 4% in women, spurring the largest ever single-year drop in overall cancer mortality of 2.2% from 2016 to 2017. Yet lung cancer still caused more deaths in 2017 than breast, prostate, colorectal, and brain cancers combined. Recent mortality declines were also dramatic for melanoma of the skin in the wake of US Food and Drug Administration approval of new therapies for metastatic disease, escalating to 7% annually during 2013 through 2017 from 1% during 2006 through 2010 in men and women aged 50 to 64 years and from 2% to 3% in those aged 20 to 49 years; annual declines of 5% to 6% in individuals aged 65 years and older are particularly striking because rates in this age group were increasing prior to 2013. It is also notable that long-term rapid increases in liver cancer mortality have attenuated in women and stabilized in men. In summary, slowing momentum for some cancers amenable to early detection is juxtaposed with notable gains for other common cancers.

The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction

A summary evaluation of the 2015 American Cancer Society (ACS) challenge goal showed that overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Recent research suggests that US cancer mortality can still be lowered considerably by applying known interventions broadly and equitably. The ACS Board of Directors, therefore, commissioned ACS researchers to determine challenge goals for reductions in cancer mortality by 2035. A statistical model was used to estimate the average annual percent decline in overall cancer death rates among the US general population and among college-educated Americans during the most recent period. Then, the average annual percent decline in the overall cancer death rates of college graduates was applied to the death rates in the general population to project future rates in the United States beginning in 2020. If overall cancer death rates from 2020 through 2035 nationally decline at the pace of those of college graduates, then death rates in 2035 in the United States will drop by 38.3% from the 2015 level and by 54.4% from the 1990 level. On the basis of these results, the ACS 2035 challenge goal was set as a 40% reduction from the 2015 level. Achieving this goal could lead to approximately 1.3 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred from 2020 through 2035 and 122,500 fewer cancer deaths in 2035 alone. The results also show that reducing the prevalence of risk factors and achieving optimal adherence to evidence-based screening guidelines by 2025 could lead to a 33.5% reduction in the overall cancer death rate by 2035, attaining 85% of the challenge goal.

Cancer treatment and survivorship statistics, 2019

The number of cancer survivors continues to increase in the United States because of the growth and aging of the population as well as advances in early detection and treatment. To assist the public health community in better serving these individuals, the American Cancer Society and the National Cancer Institute collaborate every 3 years to estimate cancer prevalence in the United States using incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries; vital statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics; and population projections from the US Census Bureau. Current treatment patterns based on information in the National Cancer Data Base are presented for the most prevalent cancer types. Cancer-related and treatment-related short-term, long-term, and late health effects are also briefly described. More than 16.9 million Americans (8.1 million males and 8.8 million females) with a history of cancer were alive on January 1, 2019; this number is projected to reach more than 22.1 million by January 1, 2030 based on the growth and aging of the population alone. The 3 most prevalent cancers in 2019 are prostate (3,650,030), colon and rectum (776,120), and melanoma of the skin (684,470) among males, and breast (3,861,520), uterine corpus (807,860), and colon and rectum (768,650) among females. More than one-half (56%) of survivors were diagnosed within the past 10 years, and almost two-thirds (64%) are aged 65 years or older. People with a history of cancer have unique medical and psychosocial needs that require proactive assessment and management by follow-up care providers. Although there are growing numbers of tools that can assist patients, caregivers, and clinicians in navigating the various phases of cancer survivorship, further evidence-based resources are needed to optimize care.

Cost-Effectiveness and National Effects of Initiating Colorectal Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Persons at Age 45 Years Instead of 50 Years

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The American Cancer Society has recommended initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at age 45 years instead of 50 years. We estimated the cost effectiveness and national effects of adopting this recommendation.

METHODS

We compared screening strategies and alternative resource allocations in a validated Markov model. We based national projections on screening participation rates by age and census data.

RESULTS

Screening colonoscopy initiation at age 45 years instead of 50 years in 1000 persons averted 4 CRCs and 2 CRC deaths, gained 14 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost $33,900/QALY gained, and required 758 additional colonoscopies. These 758 colonoscopies could instead be used to screen 231 currently unscreened 55-year-old persons or 342 currently unscreened 65-year-old persons, through age 75 years. These alternatives averted 13-14 CRC cases and 6-7 CRC deaths and gained 27-28 discounted QALYs while saving $163,700-$445,800. Improving colonoscopy completion rates after abnormal results from a fecal immunochemical test yielded greater benefits and savings. Initiation of fecal immunochemical testing at age 45 years instead of 50 years cost $7700/QALY gained. Shifting current age-specific screening rates to 5 years earlier could avert 29,400 CRC cases and 11,100 CRC deaths over the next 5 years but would require 10.7 million additional colonoscopies and cost an incremental $10.4 billion. Improving screening rates to 80% in persons who are 50-75 years old would avert nearly 3-fold more CRC deaths at one third the incremental cost.

CONCLUSIONS

In a Markov model analysis, we found that starting CRC screening at age 45 years is likely to be cost effective. However, greater benefit, at lower cost, could be achieved by increasing participation rates for unscreened older and higher-risk persons.

Clair CM, Hou JY, Khoury-Collado FMD, Ananth CV, Neugut AI, Hershman DL. Potential Consequences of Minimum-Volume Standards for Hospitals Treating Women With Ovarian Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential effects of implementing minimum hospital volume standards for ovarian cancer on survival and access to care.

METHODS

We used the National Cancer Database to identify hospitals treating women with ovarian cancer from 2005 to 2015. We estimated the number of patients treated by each hospital during the prior year. Multivariable models were used to estimate the ratio of observed/expected 60-day, and 1-, 2- and 5-year mortalities. The mean predicted observed/expected ratio of hospitals was plotted based on prior year volume. The number of hospitals that would be restricted if minimum-volume standards were implemented was modeled.

RESULTS

A total of 136,196 patients treated at 1,321 hospitals were identified. Increasing hospital volume was associated with decreased 60-day (P=.004), 1-year (P<.001), 2-year (P<.001) and 5-year (P=.008) mortality. In 2015, using a minimum-volume cutpoint of one case in the prior year would eliminate 144 (13.6%) hospitals (treated 2.6% of all patients); a cutpoint of three would eliminate 364 (34.5%) hospitals (treated 7.7% of the patients). The mean observed/expected ratios for hospitals with a prior year volume of 1 was 1.14 for 60-day mortality, 1.06 for 1-year mortality, 1.12 for 2-year mortality, and 1.08 for 5-year mortality. Among hospitals with a prior year volume of one, 49.2% had an observed/expected ratio for 2-year mortality of at least 1 (indicating worse than expected performance), and 50.8% had an observed/expected ratio of less than 1 (indicating better than expected performance). The mean observed/expected ratios for hospitals with a prior year volume of two or less were 1.11 for 60-day mortality, 1.09 for 1-year mortality, 1.08 for 2-year mortality, and 1.07 for 5-year mortality. Implementing a minimum-volume standard of one case in the prior year would result in one fewer death for every 198 patients at 60 days, for every 613 patients at 1 year, and for every 62 patients at 5 years.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of minimum hospital volume standards could restrict care at a significant number of hospitals, including many centers with better-than-predicted outcomes.

Implementing personalized pathways for cancer follow-up care in the United States: Proceedings from an American Cancer Society-American Society of Clinical Oncology summit

A new approach to cancer follow-up care is necessary to meet the needs of cancer survivors while dealing with increasing volume and provider shortages, knowledge gaps, and costs to both health care systems and patients. An approach that triages patients to personalized follow-up care pathways, depending on the type(s) and level(s) of resources needed for patients' long-term care, is in use in the United Kingdom and other countries and has been shown to meet patients' needs, more efficiently use the health care system, and reduce costs. Recognizing that testing and implementing a similar personalized approach to cancer follow-up care in the United States will require a multipronged strategy, the American Cancer Society and the American Society of Clinical Oncology convened a summit in January 2018 to identify the needed steps to move this work from concept to implementation. The summit identified 4 key strategies going forward: 1) developing a candidate model (or models) of care delivery; 2) building the case for implementation by conducting studies modeling the effects of personalized pathways of follow-up care on patient outcomes, workforce and health care resources, and utilization and costs; 3) creating consensus-based guidelines to guide the delivery of personalized care pathways; and 4) identifying and filling research gaps to develop and implement needed care changes. While these national strategies are pursued, oncology and primary care providers can lay the groundwork for implementation by assessing their patients' risk of recurrence and the chronic and late effects of cancer as well as other health care needs and resources available for care and by considering triaging patients accordingly, referring patients to appropriate specialized survivorship clinics as these are developed, helping to support patients who are capable of self-managing their health, setting expectations with patients from diagnosis onward for the need for follow-up in primary care and/or a survivorship clinic, and improving coordination of care between oncology and primary care.

Cancer screening in the United States, 2019: A review of current American Cancer Society guidelines and current issues in cancer screening

Each year, the American Cancer Society publishes a summary of its guidelines for early cancer detection, data and trends in cancer screening rates, and select issues related to cancer screening. In this issue of the journal, the current American Cancer Society cancer screening guidelines are summarized, and the most current data from the National Health Interview Survey are provided on the utilization of cancer screening for men and women and on the adherence of men and women to multiple recommended screening tests.

Adherence to American Cancer Society and American Institute of Cancer Research dietary guidelines in overweight African American breast cancer survivors

PURPOSE

The American Cancer Society (ACS) and the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) each created dietary and physical activity guidelines to improve cancer survivorship. Despite African American breast cancer survivors (AABCS) having the lowest survival rates of any racial or ethnic group, limited information exists on their adherence to cancer-specific lifestyle recommendations. The study's purpose was to measure adherence to ACS/AICR dietary recommendations in AABCS.

METHODS

Two hundred ten AABCS enrolled in the Moving Forward intervention trial, a randomized, community-based, 6-month weight loss study, were assessed for socio-demographics, dietary intake (via food frequency questionnaire), and related health factors at baseline. We operationalized the dietary recommendations put forth by ACS/AICR and created component and total adherence index scores. Descriptive statistics were used to calculate the proportion of women who met recommendations. Student's t test and χ2 tests were used to compare participant characteristics by median adherence scores.

RESULTS

The mean total ACS/AICR score was 12.7 ± 2.5 out of 21 points (median, 13; range, 5 to 21). Over 90% were moderately or completely adherent to limiting alcohol and red & processed meat consumption, but the majority failed to meet the other recommendations to eat whole grains, legumes, fruits, vegetables, and avoid added sugars. Women with total scores below the median were younger, with higher BMI, had fewer years of education, and lower income levels.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS

The present study extends the literature on AABCS adherence to cancer survivor-specific dietary guidelines. Findings will inform future dietary lifestyle interventions in this population.

Predictors of sentinel lymph node positivity in thin melanoma using the National Cancer Database

BACKGROUND

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) specimens are often obtained from patients for further staging after these patients have undergone melanoma excision. Limited data regarding predictors of SLNB positivity in thin melanoma are available.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate predictors of SLNB positivity in thin melanoma.

METHODS

Patients with cutaneous melanoma with a Breslow thickness ≤1.00 mm who received a SLNB were identified from the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2014 (n = 9186). Predictors of SLNB positivity were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

In a multivariate analysis, patients <60 years of age (P < .001) and Breslow thickness >0.8 mm (P = .03) were at increased risk for positive sentinel lymph node (SLN). Moreover, on multivariate analysis, the presence of dermal mitoses increased the odds of SLN positivity by 95% (odds ratio [OR] 1.95 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.53-2.5], P < .001), ulceration by 63% (OR 1.63 [95% CI 1.21-2.18], P < .001), and Clark level IV to V by 48% (OR 1.48 [95% CI 1.19-1.85]). Patients without ulceration but with dermal mitoses had 92% (OR 1.92 [95% CI 1.5-2.48], P < .001) increased SLN positivity.

LIMITATIONS

Limited survival data are available.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, a Breslow thickness >0.8 mm, the presence of dermal mitoses, ulceration, and Clark level IV to V are positive predictors of positive SLN. While the new American Joint Committee on Cancer system has removed dermal mitotic rate from staging, continued evaluation of dermal mitotic rate could be valuable for guiding surgical decision making about SLNB.