A century past the discovery of insulin: global progress and challenges for type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries

Type 1 diabetes is on the rise globally; however, the burden of mortality remains disproportionate in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). As 2021 marks 100 years since the discovery of insulin, we revisit progress, global burden of type 1 diabetes trends, and understanding of the pathogenesis and management practices related to the disease. Despite much progress, inequities in access and availability of insulin formulations persist and are reflected in differences in survival and morbidity patterns related to the disease. Some of these inequities have also been exacerbated by health-system challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a clear opportunity to improve access to insulin and related essential technologies for improved management of type 1 diabetes in LMICs, especially as a part of universal health coverage. These improvements will require concerted action and investments in human resources, community engagement, and education for the timely diagnosis and management of type 1 diabetes, as well as adequate health-care financing. Further research in LMICs, especially those in Africa, is needed to improve our understanding of the burden, risk factors, and implementation strategies for managing type 1 diabetes.

Changes in Type 2 Diabetes Medication Utilization and Costs in the United States, 2014-2019

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to describe national changes in utilization and associated costs of antidiabetic medications in the United States from 2014 to 2019, across different drug classes and insurance plans.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective, cross-sectional study examined administrative claims from a large national pharmacy benefits manager from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019. Patients aged 18 years and above enrolled in commercial, Medicare, or Medicaid health plans who filled ≥1 prescription claim for an antidiabetic medication(s) during the 6-year period were included. Utilization was examined as the total number of 30-day adjusted prescription fills per user per month (PUPM). Gross costs were calculated as the sum of plan costs (net of rebates) and member out-of-pocket costs. Differences in mean utilization and costs PUPM between 2014 and 2019 for each medication class were calculated.

RESULTS

The final analytic sample increased from 745,290 patients in 2014 to 1,596,006 in 2019. Antidiabetic medication utilization increased by 8.8% from 2014 to 2019, driven by increases in sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (48.7%; P<0.001), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (11.8%; P<0.001), insulin (8.1%; P<0.001), and metformin (2.9%; P<0.05) utilization. Average costs PUPM rose 47.5% (P<0.001), from $126.52 in 2014 to $186.58 in 2019. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and combination drugs contributed significantly to these increased costs, with 6-year cost differences of 57.3%, 46.9%, and 47.2%, respectively (all P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates a shift in antidiabetic medication class utilization from 2014 to 2019, where associated costs net of rebates significantly increased to a disproportionately greater extent than the significant increase in utilization PUPM.

Use of the Whole Country Insulin Consumption Data in Israel to Determine the Prevalence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children <5 Years of Age Before and During Rotavirus Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Recent studies showed that rotavirus vaccination may affect the prevalence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of early childhood (<5 years) T1D before and during the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Israel by syndromic surveillance.

METHODS

Data on insulin purchases reported by Israel's four Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) were retrieved from the National Program for Quality Indicators in Community Healthcare.

RESULTS

During the prevaccination years (2002-2007), a steady increase in insulin purchases was reported in the young (<5 years). The period percent change (PC) of children <5 years old diagnosed with T1D inferred from purchased insulin prescriptions increased by 50.0%, and the annual percent change (APC) increased by 10.0% (p = 0.01). During the period of free, universal Rotavirus vaccination (2011-2018), the PC for T1D diagnoses among children <5 years of age decreased by 3.8% with an APC of -2.5% (p = 0.14). There was a significant difference (p = 0.002) between the increasing trend in insulin use before vaccination versus the decreasing trend after vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus vaccination correlated with attenuation of the increasing rate in the prevalence of T1D in <5-year-old children in Israel.

A global perspective on the issue of access to insulin

The discovery of insulin in 1921 changed the prognosis for people with type 1 diabetes. A century later, availability and affordability of insulin remain a challenge in many parts of the globe. Using the WHO's framework on understanding the life cycle of medicines, this review details the global and national challenges that affect patients' abilities to access and afford insulin. Current research and development in diabetes has seen some innovations, but none of these have truly been game-changing. Currently, three multinational companies control over 95% of global insulin supply. The inclusion of insulin on the WHO's Prequalification Programme is an opportunity to facilitate entry of new companies into the market. Many governments lack policies on the selection, procurement, supply, pricing and reimbursement of insulin. Moreover, mark-ups in the supply chain also affect the final price to the consumer. Whilst expenses related to diabetes are mostly covered by insurance in high-income countries, many patients from low- and middle-income countries have to pay out of their own pockets. The organisation of diabetes management within the healthcare system also affects patient access to insulin. The challenges affecting access to insulin are complex and require a wide range of solutions. Given that 2021 marks the centenary of the discovery of insulin, there is need for global advocacy to ensure that the benefits of insulin and innovations in diabetes care reach all individuals living with diabetes.

Real-world clinical outcomes and costs in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients after initiation of insulin therapy: A German claims data analysis

BACKGROUND

This study describes real-world treatment-related outcomes and healthcare costs of German type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) patients who initiated insulin therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis includes German claims data from 01/01/2012 until 31/12/2016. Identification of eligible patients took place between 01/01/2013 and 31/12/2015, allowing for at least 1 year of follow-up. Clinical outcomes, such as HbA1c values and body mass index, were observed in a subpopulation participating in a Disease Management Program. Healthcare expenditures were evaluated for the first year of therapy.

RESULTS

Overall, 27,340 insulin starters with T2D were observed (mean age: 72.2 years, female: 51.4%). Treatment-related outcomes were evaluated in a subsample of 12,034 patients. Patients who started insulin combined with other antidiabetic drugs (ADs) achieved their HbA1c goals more frequently than patients on insulin monotherapy (+10.7 percentage points [pp] vs. +21.1 pp for insulin plus metformin). All-cause costs were by far highest among patients with insulin monotherapy (€ 12,283 per patient-year) compared with patients receiving a combined AD regimen (€ 9,947-10,509 per patient-year).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in HbA1c values were not in favor of insulin monotherapy, compared to regimens including other ADs. It was also associated with higher costs, suggesting that insulin alone is a suboptimal treatment.

Addressing Insulin Access and Affordability: An Endocrine Society Position Statement

Rising costs have made access to affordable insulin far more difficult for people with diabetes, especially low-income individuals, those on high deductible health plans, beneficiaries using Medicare Part B to cover insulin delivered via pump, Medicare beneficiaries in the Part D donut hole, and those who turn 26 and must transition from their parents' insurance, to manage their diabetes and avoid unnecessary complications and hospitalizations. For many patients with diabetes, insulin is a life-saving medication. Policymakers should immediately address drivers of rising insulin prices and implement solutions that would reduce high out-of-pocket expenditures for patients. The Endocrine Society recommends policy options to expand access to lower cost insulin in this paper.

Cost-effectiveness of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus insulin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes: a real-world study and systematic review

BACKGROUND

To conduct a real-word-study-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) versus insulin among type 2 diabetes patients requiring intensified injection therapy and a systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies of GLP-1RAs versus insulin.

METHODS

Individual-level analyses incorporating real-world effectiveness and cost data were conducted for a cohort of 1022 propensity-score-matched pairs of GLP-1RA and insulin users from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, 2007-2016. Study outcomes included the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one case of clinical events, healthcare costs, and cost per case of event prevented. Costs were in 2019 US dollars. Analyses were performed from a third-party payer and healthcare sector perspectives. Structured systematic review procedures were conducted to synthesize updated evidence on the cost-effectiveness of GLP-1RAs versus insulin.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, the NNT using a GLP-1RA versus insulin to prevent one case of all-cause mortality and hospitalized hypoglycemia was 57 and 30, respectively. Using GLP-1RAs instead of insulin cost US$54,851 and US$29,115 per case of all-cause mortality and hospitalized hypoglycemia prevented, respectively, from the payer perspective, and saved US$19,391 and US$10,293, respectively, from the healthcare sector perspective. Sensitivity analyses showed that the probability of using GLP-1RAs versus insulin being cost-effective for preventing one case of all-cause mortality or hospitalized hypoglycemia ranged from 60 to 100%. The systematic review revealed a cost-effective profile of using GLP-1RAs versus insulin.

CONCLUSIONS

Using GLP-1RAs versus insulin for type 2 diabetes patients requiring intensified injection therapy in clinical practice is cost-effective.

Association of Out-of-Pocket Spending With Insulin Adherence in Medicare Part D

This cross-sectional study examines whether efforts to limit out-of-pocket spending for enrollees in nonsubsidized Medicare Part D plans are associated with insulin adherence rates among these patients.

Clinical Outcome and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of CSII Versus MDI in Children and Adolescent With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in a Public Health Care System of China

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical and economic consequences of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) vs. multiple daily injections (MDI) in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) from a public health care system in developed areas of developing country, considering changes in glycemic Control, daily insulin requirements, lipid profile, body mass index (BMI), frequency of severe hypoglycemia and Diabetic Ketoacidosis (DKA) and diabetic complications.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of children and adolescents with T1DM. Data were collected at baseline and the end of every year including glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), insulin dose, lipid profile, blood pressure, and adverse events (severe hypoglycemia and DKA). The Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using the IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model (CDM) to simulate diabetes progression by utilizing the clinical data obtained from the two groups. The main outcome measures were Life Expectancy, Quality adjusted life years (QALYs), Total Costs and Incremental Costs and Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of CSII compared with MDI in Chinese pediatric patients with T1DM in Qingdao City (60 years).

RESULTS

Mean HbA1c values and daily insulin doses were significantly lower in those receiving CSII therapy throughout follow-up. Mean direct lifetime costs were ¥ 67,137 higher with CSII treatment than with MDI for pediatric patients. Treatment with CSII was associated with an improvement in life expectancy of 0.41 years for pediatric patients compared with MDI based on CORE diabetes model simulation. The corresponding gains in QALYs were 0.42. These data produced corresponding ICER is ¥ 161,815 per QALY for pediatric T1DM patients in Qingdao. Sensitivity analyses suggested that our base-case assumptions were mostly robust.

CONCLUSIONS

CSII is associated with improved long-term clinical outcomes compared with MDI. Based on this model analysis, CSII appears to be more cost-effective for the Qingdao TIDM pediatric population and health care system.

Bariatric surgery for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus requiring insulin: Clinical outcome and cost-effectiveness analyses

BACKGROUND

Although bariatric surgery is well established as an effective treatment for patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), there exists reluctance to increase its availability for patients with severe T2DM. The aims of this study were to examine the impact of bariatric surgery on T2DM resolution in patients with obesity and T2DM requiring insulin (T2DM-Ins) using data from a national database and to develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surgery in this cohort when compared to best medical treatment (BMT).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Clinical data from the National Bariatric Surgical Registry (NBSR), a comprehensive database of bariatric surgery in the United Kingdom, were extracted to analyse outcomes of patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins who underwent primary bariatric surgery between 2009 and 2017. Outcomes for this group were combined with data sourced from a comprehensive literature review in order to develop a state-transition microsimulation model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery versus BMT for patients over a 5-year time horizon. The main outcome measure for the clinical study was insulin cessation at 1-year post-surgery: relative risks (RR) summarising predictive factors were determined, unadjusted, and after adjusting for variables including age, initial body mass index (BMI), duration of T2DM, and weight loss. Main outcome measures for the economic evaluation were total costs, total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) at willingness-to-pay threshold of GBP£20,000. A total of 2,484 patients were eligible for inclusion, of which 1,847 had 1-year follow-up data (mean age of 51 years, mean initial BMI 47.2 kg/m2, and 64% female). 67% of patients no longer required insulin at 1-year postoperatively: these rates persisted for 4 years. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) was associated with a higher rate of insulin cessation (71.7%) than sleeve gastrectomy (SG; 64.5%; RR 0.92, confidence interval (CI) 0.86-0.99) and adjustable gastric band (AGB; 33.6%; RR 0.45, CI 0.34-0.60; p < 0.001). When adjusted for percentage total weight loss and demographic variables, insulin cessation following surgery was comparable for RYGB and SG (RR 0.97, CI 0.90-1.04), with AGB having the lowest cessation rates (RR 0.55, CI 0.40-0.74; p < 0.001). Over 5 years, bariatric surgery was cost saving compared to BMT (total cost GBP£22,057 versus GBP£26,286 respectively, incremental difference GBP£4,229). This was due to lower treatment costs as well as reduced diabetes-related complications costs and increased health benefits. Limitations of this study include loss to follow-up of patients within the NBSR dataset and that the time horizon for the economic analysis is limited to 5 years. In addition, the study reflects current medical and surgical treatment regimens for this cohort of patients, which may change.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that in patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins, bariatric surgery was associated with high rates of postoperative cessation of insulin therapy, which is, in turn, a major driver of overall reductions in direct healthcare cost. Our findings suggest that a strategy utilising bariatric surgery for patients with obesity and T2DM-Ins is cost saving to the national healthcare provider (National Health Service (NHS)) over a 5-year time horizon.

The Association Between Adherence to Insulin Therapy and Health Care Costs for Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: Evidence from a U.S. Retrospective Claims Database

BACKGROUND

Research has shown that many patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are not adherent to their medication regimen.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between adherence to insulin therapy and all-cause health care costs for patients with T2D.

METHODS

This study used the IQVIA PharMetrics Plus Linkable to Ambulatory Electronic Medical Record data from January 1, 2012, through September 30, 2017. Patients were included if they were identified with T2D and initiated therapy on basal insulin (BAS) or basal-bolus (BAS-BOL) combination at any time from January 1, 2013, through October 1, 2016. Patients aged < 18 years, who used an insulin pump, identified as pregnant, or did not have continuous insurance coverage from 1 year before initiation on insulin therapy through 1 year after initiation were excluded. Descriptive statistics compared patient characteristics and costs (in U.S. 2017 dollars) between patients who were adherent or nonadherent to their insulin therapy in the 1-year postperiod, where adherence was defined as having proportion of days covered (PDC) of at least 80%. In addition, generalized linear models were used to compare costs between adherent and nonadherent patients, while controlling for patient characteristics, previous general health and comorbidities, resource utilization, medication use and type of insulin.

RESULTS

13,296 patients were included in the BAS cohort (5,502 adherent; 7,794 nonadherent) and 10,069 in the BAS-BOL cohort (2,006 adherent; 8,063 nonadherent). Adherent patients had significantly lower all-cause total unadjusted costs following initiation on BAS ($29,322 vs. $31,888, P = 0.0134) and BAS-BOL combination ($36,229 vs. $40,147, P = 0.0078). Drug costs comprised 39.5%-45.4% of costs among adherent patients and 23.0%-25.9% of costs among nonadherent patients. Multivariable analyses revealed that adherent patients had significantly lower adjusted all-cause total costs than nonadherent patients in the BAS cohort ($30,127 vs. $37,049, 95% CI for difference -$8,460 to -$5,384) and the BAS-BOL cohort ($36,603 vs. $44,702, 95% CI for difference -$9,129 to -$6,980).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with T2D who initiated BAS or BAS-BOL combination therapy, adherence was associated with significantly lower all-cause total health care costs, despite significantly higher drug costs. These results illustrate the potential economic benefits associated with adherence to insulin therapy. DISCLOSURES": Eli Lilly and Company funded this study and was responsible for study design and execution. Bajpai, Eby, Faries, and Haynes are employees and own stock in Eli Lilly and Company. Lage received compensation from Eli Lilly and Company for her work on this research project.

Budget impact analysis for dapagliflozin in type 2 diabetes in Egypt

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major health problem in Egypt with a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and healthcare resources. This study evaluated the budget impact and the long-term consequences of dapagliflozin versus other conventional medications, as monotherapy, from both the societal and health insurance perspectives in Egypt.Methods: A static budget impact model was developed to estimate the financial consequences of adopting dapagliflozin on the healthcare payer budget. We measured the direct medical costs of dapagliflozin (new scenario) as monotherapy, compared to metformin, insulin, sulphonylurea, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, thiazolidinedione, and repaglinide (old scenarios) over a time horizon of 3 years. Myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) rates were captured from DECLARE TIMI 58 trial. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted.Results: The budget impact model estimated 2,053,908 patients eligible for treatment with dapagliflozin from a societal perspective and 1,207,698 patients from the health insurance (HI) perspective. The new scenario allows for an initial savings of EGP121 million in the first year, which increased to EGP243 and EGP365 million in the second and third years, respectively. The total cumulative savings from a societal perspective were estimated at EGP731 million. Dapagliflozin allows for savings of EGP71, EGP143, and EGP215 million in the first, second and third years respectively, from the HI perspective, with total cumulative savings of EGP430 million over the 3 years.Conclusion: Treating T2DM patients using dapagliflozin instead of conventional medications, maximizes patients' benefits and decreases total costs due to drug cost offsets from fewer cardiovascular and renal events. The adoption of dapagliflozin is a budget-saving treatment option, resulting in substantial population-level health gains due to reduced event rate and cost savings from the perspective of the national healthcare system.

The cost-effectiveness of insulin analogs and regular insulin for diabetes control: a case study in Iran

PURPOSE

For years, traditional techniques have been used for diabetes treatment. There are two major types of insulin: insulin analogs and regular insulin. Insulin analogs are similar to regular insulin and lead to changes in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. The purpose of the present research was to determine the cost-effectiveness of insulin analogs versus regular insulin for diabetes control in Yazd Diabetes Center in 2017.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

In this descriptive-analytical research, the cost-effectiveness index was used to compare insulin analogs and regular insulin (pen/vial) for treatment of diabetes. Data were analyzed in the TreeAge Software and a decision tree was constructed. A 10% discount rate was used for ICER sensitivity analysis. Cost-effectiveness was examined from a provider's perspective.

FINDINGS

QALY was calculated to be 0.2 for diabetic patients using insulin analogs and 0.05 for those using regular insulin. The average cost was $3.228 for analog users and $1.826 for regular insulin users. An ICER of $0.093506/QALY was obtained. The present findings suggest that insulin analogs are more cost-effective than regular insulin.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

This study was conducted using a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate insulin analogs versus regular insulin in controlling diabetes. The results of study are helpful to the government to allocate more resources to apply the cost-effective method of the treatment and to protect patients with diabetes from the high cost of treatment.

Health-related quality of life and health utilities in insulin-treated type 2 diabetes: the impact of related comorbidities/complications

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of multiple comorbidities/complications on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and health utilities in insulin-treated type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

METHODS

In a non-interventional, epidemiological study, data were collected from medical records and via interviews for 938 subjects from various geographical areas of Greece. HRQoL and health utilities were explored with the EQ-5D-5L. Univariate associations were evaluated with the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests for continuous and Chi-squared tests for nominal variables, and binary logistic regressions were employed to obtain marginal effects. Employing a split sample approach, various specifications of ordinary least squares regression models were evaluated in terms of goodness of fit, model specification, shrinkage and predictive and discriminative performance, to select the best model for mapping health utilities using the whole dataset.

RESULTS

Overall, the most important factors of impaired HRQoL and health utilities were higher age, female gender, obesity, poor glycemic control and increased duration of insulin treatment. History and increasing concurrence of all complications assessed were associated with exacerbated HRQoL problems, decreased health utilities and diminished health state, although it was not always statistically significant. The highest disutilities were associated with stroke (- 0.082), diabetic retinopathy (- 0.066), diabetic neuropathy (- 0.051) and severe hypoglycemia (- 0.050).

CONCLUSIONS

The deleterious impact of comorbidities on insulin-dependent T2DM subjects' HRQoL has been confirmed and clinicians should adapt the priorities of disease management accordingly. The derived health utility estimates may be valuable for conducting economic evaluations of interventions in the area of T2DM when data are not available.

An Assessment of Glycaemic Control and Modes of Health Financing among Type 2 Diabetic Patients Attending a Teaching Hospital in South-western Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus can be a major drain on resources due to lifelong treatment and risk of catastrophic expenditure from treatment of complications. The prevalence has been projected to rise to alarming levels in developing countries. This study aimed to assess the levels of, and associations between good glycaemic control among patients with type 2 diabetes and their modes of financing healthcare.

METHODS

In this hospital based descriptive cross-sectional study, 260 patients being managed for type 2 diabetes at the outpatient clinics of Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos were recruited by systematic random sampling method. All participants received a HBA1C test to assess glycaemic control and a composite interviewer administered questionnaire adapted from the MMAS-8 and diabetes care profile to assess medication adherence, modes of financing and other factors related to disease management.

RESULTS

Of the 260 study participants, 34.62% (90) had good glycaemic control. In the mode of health care financing only 15% (39) paid by health insurance (NHIS), while 85% of the respondents' payment was by out-of-pocket (OOP) payment. About half of these OOP payments were made by family, friends and others (in this study, a proxy for informal means of pooling finances). Significant associations were found between glycaemic control and adherence (2 13.93, p=0.001), glycaemic control and mode of payment (2 15.30, p=0.0000) and also adherence and mode of payment (2 16.59, p =0.002).

CONCLUSION

In this study, only about a third of patients with type 2 diabetes achieved good glycaemic control, most patients used OOP financing and patients with OOP financing had poorer adherence and poorer glycaemic control. There is a need to scale up health insurance to improve health outcomes in diabetes management and protect people in developing countries from the burden of health care costs of chronic diseases like type 2 diabetes.

Management of adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Africa: A post-hoc cohort analysis of 12 African countries participating in the International Diabetes Management Practices Study (Wave 7)

There is a paucity of information on real world management of African adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). We aimed to describe a cohort of African adults with T1DM.The International Diabetes Management Practices Study is an observational survey conducted from 2005 to 2017. Data were collected in seven individual waves from countries in Asia, Africa, East Europe, and Latin America. Wave 7 was conducted from 2016 to 2017 and the African cohort included 12 countries. Questionnaires were administered to clinicians and patients. Analyses were mainly descriptive. Logistic regressions were performed to identify predictive factors for glycaemic control.A total of 788 patients were enrolled in the study. HbA1c values were available for 712 patients; only 16.6% had HbA1c values <7%. A total of 196 (24.9%) reported being hospitalized in the preceding year, with the most common reasons being diabetic ketoacidosis (58.1%, 93/160) and hypoglycaemia (31.1%; 52/167). Over half of the patients (55.4%) stated that the cost of test strips limited regular glycemic monitoring; a minority of patients (15%, 120/788) received structured diabetes education. Predictors of HbA1c <7% included patients receiving diabetes education (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval, CI] = 2.707 [1.157-6.335] P = .022), following a healthy diet and exercise plan (OR [95% CI] = 2.253 [1.206-4.209], P < .001) and self-managing (monitoring glucose levels and adjusting insulin accordingly) (OR [95% CI] 2.508 [1.500-4.191] P < .001).African adults with T1DM have suboptimal glycemic control with almost one-quarter reporting hospitalization within the preceding year. Most patients felt comfortable with self-adjustment of insulin dose but said that the cost of test strips was the main factor that limited regular monitoring. Reducing direct costs of testing strips and insulin, and improving education will address major challenges within these settings.

Prediction of medical expenditures of diagnosed diabetics and the assessment of its related factors using a random forest model, MEPS 2000-2015

OBJECTIVE

To predict the medical expenditures of individual diabetics and assess the related factors of it.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected from the US household component of the medical expenditure panel survey, 2000-2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Random forest (RF) model was performed with the programs of randomForest in R software. Spearman correlation coefficients (rs), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean-related error (MRE) was computed to assess the prediction of all the models.

RESULTS

Total medical expenditure was increased from $105 Billion in 2000 to $318 Billion in 2015. rs, MAE and MRE between the predicted and actual values of medical expenditures in RF model were 0.644, $0.363 and 0.043%. Top one factor in prediction was being treated by the insulin, followed by type of insurance, employment status, age and economical level. The latter four variables had no impact in predicting of medical expenditure by being treated by the insulin. Further, after the sub-analysis of gender and age-groups, the evaluating indicators of prediction were almost identical to each other. Top five variables of total medical expenditure among male were same as those among all the diabetics. Expenses for doctor visits, hospital stay and drugs were also predicted with RF model well. Treatment with insulin was the top one factor of total medical expenditure among female, 18-, 25- and 65-age-groups. Additionally, it indicated that RF model was little superior to traditional regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

RF model could be used in prediction of medical expenditure of diabetics and assessment of its related factors well.