Effectiveness of the Children's Fitness Tax Credit: A scoping review

OBJECTIVES

A scoping review was conducted to synthesize the literature examining impact of the Children's Fitness Tax Credit (CFTC) on the physical activity (PA) of Canadian children. Specifically, we posed two research questions seeking evidence for: (1) equitable take-up (e.g., claiming, use) of the CFTC by Canadian families; and (2) effectiveness of the CFTC in promoting or facilitating PA or sport participation among Canadian children and adolescents.

METHODS

A search was conducted in May 2023 of five databases (e.g., Medline, Scopus) and hand searching using terms such as children, adolescents, physical activity, sport, tax credit or taxation. Documents were included if they were data-based studies, available in English or French, and related to the research questions. They were then coded for characteristics of the document, sample, data, behaviour, and findings.

SYNTHESIS

Of 318 possible documents, 7 documents revealing 26 findings were included after a full-article scan. Most of the documents were published and had a national scope. The most frequent source of data was from parental reports (62%), with the most common types of behaviour being tax claim take-up rates (31%) or PA (27%). For the two research questions, the available evidence suggests no support for equitable take-up of the CFTC or the amount claimed, and most of the findings indicated no (64%) or limited effectiveness of the tax credit (29%).

CONCLUSION

The CFTC had limited to no impact in promoting PA among Canadian children, particularly for those experiencing low income.

A tripartite evolutionary game study of low-carbon innovation system from the perspective of dynamic subsidies and taxes

Traditional manufacturing industry is in the early stages of transition to low-carbon innovative production, and is in urgent need of a low-carbon innovation system to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. In order to realize the effective supervision of enterprise carbon emissions, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among the corporate, government and public from the perspective of dynamic subsidies and taxes. The main results are as follows. First, the increase in government subsidies to a certain extent will help encourage companies to choose low-carbon innovative production strategies, but more subsidies are not always better. Excessive subsidies will increase the cost of government regulation and reduce the probability of government regulation. Second, the tripartite evolutionary game system does not converge under the static subsidies and taxes mechanism. But the system could quickly converges to the stable condition under dynamic subsidies and taxes. The stable point is the situation of corporate low-carbon innovation, government regulation, and public supervision. Third, the public intervention and supervision can effectively prevent the phenomenon of government misconduct and enterprises over-emission production. And the influence of public reward and punishment is more effective for the government than for enterprises.

National taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages and its association with overweight, obesity, and diabetes

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been linked to several adverse health outcomes, thus many countries introduced taxation to reduce it.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize national SSB taxation laws and to assess their association with obesity, overweight and diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic scoping review up to January 2022 on PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Google Search to identify taxes on SSBs. An interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was conducted on 17 countries with taxation implemented in 2013 or before to evaluate the level and slope modifications in the rate of change of standardized prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and diabetes. Random-effects meta-regression was used to assess whether year of entry into force of the law, national income, and tax design affected observed results.

RESULTS

We included 76 tax laws issued between 1940 and 2020 by 43 countries, which were heterogeneous in terms of tax design, amount, and taxed products. Among children and adolescents, ITSA showed level or slope reduction for prevalence of overweight and obesity in 5 (Brazil, Samoa, Palau, Panama, Tonga) and 6 (El Salvador, Uruguay, Nauru, Norway, Palau, Tonga) countries out of 17, respectively. No clear pattern of modification of results according to investigated factors emerged from the meta-regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation is highly heterogeneous across countries in terms of products and design, which might influence its effectiveness. Our findings provide some evidence regarding a deceleration of the increasing prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among children occurring in some countries following introduction of taxation. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021233309.

Popular Votes on Tobacco Tax Increases, 2012-2022

CONTEXT

Researchers have examined the campaign strategies, messaging, and outcomes of popular votes on tobacco tax increases from 1998 to 2008, but no study has investigated measures that have appeared since 2008.

METHODS

The author uses state newspaper archives, voter pamphlets, academic reports, advocacy websites, and personal interviews to obtain information about the 11 tobacco tax increase ballot measures that appeared from 2012 to 2022.

FINDINGS

The three measures that succeeded during 2012-2022 featured sufficient financial resources, collaboration with influential stakeholders, and early public support. Two of the three successful measures offered significant concessions to the tobacco industry, and both were designed as legislatively referred statutes. Elsewhere, proponents sought unsuccessfully to enact citizen-led initiatives that would allocate revenue to progressive policy priorities. In contrast to previous eras, tobacco industry arguments often centered around antitax and antigovernment rhetoric, which was viewed as especially compelling in conservative states. The industry's success rate was higher than in the past, and it continued to outspend its opponents, sometimes by staggering margins.

CONCLUSIONS

Campaign spending and early support remain critical to the success of tobacco tax ballot measures. Big Tobacco can extract significant concessions even in defeat, and direct democracy is an effective but imperfect ally to tobacco control advocates.

Asymmetric effect of environment tax and spending on CO2 emissions of European Union

This study investigates the effects of environmental tax and environmental spending on CO2 emissions of 27 countries of the European Union EU27 countries using annual time series data from 1995 to 2022. The study used linear and non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL and NARDL) to examine the relationship. Estimates claim that the variables have a symmetric and asymmetric long-term and short-term relationship. The negative impacts of environmental taxes on CO2 emissions prove that emissions are reduced when polluting activities are taxed. Fiscal policy instrument such as taxation changes the behaviour of the private sector in the EU27 nations by disincentivizing polluting activities. On the other hand, government investment in environmental protection has encouraged the private sector in the EU27 nations to embrace and invest in green technologies, decreasing CO2 emissions. The ECM term is negative and statistically significant at a 1 percent significance level for ARDL and NARDL models, implying a stable long-run relationship between variables. It demonstrates that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 9.2% (in the ARDL model) and 22.7% (in the NARDL model). The study also sheds fresh light on the effectiveness of environmental taxes vs. expenditure, where taxes serve as a counter-incentive policy for CO2 emissions, and spending is a positive policy intervention.

Reducing Alcohol Use to Prevent Cancer Deaths: Estimated Effects Among U.S. Adults

INTRODUCTION

The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020-2025 recommends non-drinking or no more than 2 drinks for men or 1 drink for women in a day. However, even at lower levels, alcohol use increases the risk for certain cancers. This study estimated mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and the number of cancer deaths that could potentially be prevented if all U.S. adults who drank in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead consumed alcohol to correspond with typical consumption of those who drink within the recommended limits.

METHODS

Among U.S. residents aged ≥20 years, mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths during 2020-2021 that could have been prevented with hypothetical reductions in alcohol use were estimated. Mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates from the 2020-2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, adjusted to per capita alcohol sales to address underreporting of drinking, were applied to relative risks to calculate population-attributable fractions for cancers that can occur from drinking alcohol. Analyses were conducted during February-April 2023.

RESULTS

In the U.S., an estimated 20,216 cancer deaths were alcohol-attributable/year during 2020-2021 (men: 14,562 [72.0%]; women: 5,654 [28.0%]). Approximately 16,800 deaths (83% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths, 2.8% of all cancer deaths) could have been prevented/year if adults who drank alcohol in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead reduced their consumption to ≤2 drinks/day for men or ≤1 drink/day for women. Approximately 650 additional deaths could have been prevented annually if men consumed 1 drink/day, instead of 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing evidence-based alcohol policies (e.g., increasing alcohol taxes, regulating alcohol outlet density) to decrease drinking could reduce alcohol-attributable cancers, complementing clinical interventions.

Innovative domestic financing mechanisms for health in Africa: An evidence review

OBJECTIVES

This article synthesizes the evidence on what have been called innovative domestic financing mechanisms for health (i.e. any domestic revenue-raising mechanism allowing governments to diversify away from traditional approaches such as general taxation, value-added tax, user fees or any type of health insurance) aimed at increasing fiscal space for health in African countries. The article seeks to answer the following questions: What types of domestic innovative financial mechanisms have been used to finance health care across Africa? How much additional revenue have these innovative financing mechanisms raised? Has the revenue raised through these mechanisms been, or was it meant to be, earmarked for health? What is known about the policy process associated with their design and implementation?

METHODS

A systematic review of the published and grey literature was conducted. The review focused on identifying articles providing quantitative information about the additional financial resources generated through innovative domestic financing mechanisms for health care in Africa, and/or qualitative information about the policy process associated with the design or effective implementation of these financing mechanisms.

RESULTS

The search led to an initial list of 4035 articles. Ultimately, 15 studies were selected for narrative analysis. A wide range of study methods were identified, from literature reviews to qualitative and quantitative analysis and case studies. The financing mechanisms implemented or planned for were varied, the most common being taxes on mobile phones, alcohol and money transfers. Few articles documented the revenue that could be raised through these mechanisms. For those that did, the revenue projected to be raised was relatively low, ranging from 0.01% of GDP for alcohol tax alone to 0.49% of GDP if multiple levies were applied. In any case, virtually none of the mechanisms have apparently been implemented. The articles revealed that, prior to implementation, the political acceptability, the readiness of institutions to adapt to the proposed reform and the potential distortionary impact these reforms may have on the targeted industry all require careful consideration. From a design perspective, the fundamental question of earmarking proved complex both politically and administratively, with very few mechanisms actually earmarked, thus questioning whether they could effectively fill part of the health-financing gap. Finally, ensuring that these mechanisms supported the underlying equity objectives of universal health coverage was recognized as important.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional research is needed to understand better the potential of innovative domestic revenue generating mechanisms to fill the financing gap for health in Africa and diversify away from more traditional financing approaches. Whilst their revenue potential in absolute terms seems limited, they could represent an avenue for broader tax reforms in support of health. This will require sustained dialogue between Ministries of Health and Ministries of Finance.

Impact of Environmental Protection Tax on carbon intensity in China

In the context of increasingly severe global climate change, finding effective carbon emission reduction strategies has become key to mitigating climate change. Environmental Protection Tax (EPT), as a widely recognized method, effectively promotes climate change mitigation by encouraging emission reduction behaviors and promoting the application of clean technologies. Based on data from 282 cities in China, this paper takes the official implementation of the EPT in 2018 as the policy impact and the cities with increased tax rates for air taxable pollutants as the treatment group and uses DID model to systematically demonstrate the relationship between the implementation of the EPT and carbon intensity (CI) and further explores the possible pollutant emissions and green innovation mediating effects. The findings show that (1) the implementation of EPT can effectively reduce CI by about 4.75%, and this conclusion still holds after considering the robustness of variable selection bias, elimination of other normal effects, policy setting time bias, and self-selection bias. (2) The implementation of EPT can reduce CI by reducing pollutant emissions and improving the level of green innovation. (3) There is obvious regional heterogeneity in the carbon reduction effect of EPT, and the implementation of EPT has a more significant effect on CI in medium-tax areas, low environmental concern areas, general cities, and eastern regions. This paper not only provides a new analytical perspective for systematically understanding the carbon emission reduction effect of EPT but also provides policy insights for promoting regional green transformation and advancing carbon peak carbon neutralization.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania.

METHODS

We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario).

RESULTS

All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

Menstrual Products: Attitudes About Taxation and Safety

Background: This study explored factors associated with the differences between women and men in attitudes, norms, and the support of taxation of menstrual products (MPs) and menstrual-adjacent products. It also investigated the use of these products in women. Methods: Young adults from 18 to 30 years of age were recruited via social media, listserve emails, and flyers placed throughout a university campus. Following cognitive interviewing, a survey investigated attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors associated with MPs. Results: Individuals self-identified as men or women. Women (n = 154) had more positive general attitudes, less positive safety attitudes, and less support for taxation of MPs than men (n = 43). Regression analyses indicated that factors, such as race, age, attitudes, norms, and taxation, were associated with product use. Conclusions: Attitudes about safety and taxation differ for men and women. Tax policies and attitude-shifting interventions need to be tailored to their audience, and our study can inform that effort.

The Challenges of Tobacco Fiscal Policy Implementation in Mexico From the Perspective of Key Actors

INTRODUCTION

Raising tobacco taxes is considered the most effective strategy to avoid smoking initiation and discourage its use, especially among vulnerable groups. However, few low- and middle-income countries have adopted high tobacco taxes. Raising taxes is, therefore, an opportunity to strengthen and accelerate tobacco control. The objective of this study is to analyze the barriers and facilitators to the tobacco tax increase in Mexico.

AIMS AND METHODS

Based on the Governance Analytical Framework, data were generated through 17 in-depth interviews with key intersectoral actors for fiscal policy. The interviews were transcribed and coded according to Hufty's theory of governance.

RESULTS

Robust scientific evidence, intersectoral coordination, and the presence of "champions" boosted progress in tobacco control (facilitators). The main barriers were the incomplete implementation of the World Health Organization-Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC) and MPOWER package and lack of commitment ("political will") by government decision makers and legislators, misinformation about the effects of tobacco taxes, and strong tobacco industry interference.

CONCLUSIONS

Robust evidence is necessary but not sufficient to advance the implementation of the MPOWER (WHO-FCTC) actions. To achieve tobacco tax increases and public policies that protect people from unhealthy products in general, the implementation of policies or legal frameworks against industry interference in the development of public policies is imperative.

IMPLICATIONS

By analyzing the barriers and facilitators to increasing the tobacco tax in Mexico, this study identifies two key messages: (1) The need to sensitize legislators and the general population to the problem of smoking not only through epidemiological data but also through testimonies that highlight the life experiences and adversities faced by people who smoke. (2) The need for a regulatory framework to prevent industry interference in public affairs and conflicts of interest. The same framework could be very useful for public health policies to control the consumption of ultra-processed food products or alcohol.

The impact of cigarette prices on smoking onset and cessation: evidence from Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Vietnam is a country with very high smoking rates among men. According to a Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted in 2015, the daily smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men was 39%.

METHODS

We used data from the 2010 and 2015 Vietnamese GATSs and cigarette price data from General Statistics Office of Vietnam. Since smoking prevalence is low among women, we only considered men. Using discrete-time hazard models, we estimated the effect of cigarette prices on smoking onset and cessation. Sensitivity analyses are conducted using different model specifications.

RESULTS

We find that higher cigarette prices reduce the probability of smoking onset. A 1% increase in the cigarette price reduces the hazard of smoking onset by 1.2% (95% CI -2.12% to -0.28%). This suggests that increases in tobacco taxation, which translate to price increases, can reduce smoking onset. We did not find evidence that cigarette prices impact smoking cessation among men in Vietnam.

CONCLUSION

Vietnam should continue to increase excise taxes on tobacco products to reduce smoking onset. Since smokers are resilient to excise tax increases, other tobacco control policies, such as smoke-free areas and tobacco advertisement bans, should be better enforced to encourage people to quit. Other policies not yet implemented, such as plain packaging of tobacco products, may also encourage smokers to quit.

As countries improve their cigarette tax policy, cigarette consumption declines

BACKGROUND

This study examines the association between the Tobacconomics cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption in 97 countries during the period of 2014-2020.

METHODS

Data on countries' retail cigarette sales and overall cigarette tax scores from 2014 to 2020 are drawn from the proprietary Euromonitor International database and the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard (second edition). Information on countries' tobacco control environments and demographic characteristics is from the relevant years' WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, and the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. Ordinary least squares regressions are employed to examine the link between countries' overall cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption. All regressions control for countries' tobacco control environments, countries' demographic characteristics, year indicators and country fixed effects.

RESULTS

Each unit increase in the overall cigarette tax scores is significantly associated with a reduction of 9% in countries' per-capita cigarette consumption during 2014-2020. The reduction is more pronounced in low and middle-income countries (9%) than in high-income countries (6%). The modest improvement in scores from 2014 to 2020 is associated with a reduction of 3.27% in consumption, while consumption could have been reduced by 20.74% had countries implemented optimal tax policies that would earn the highest score of 5.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence on the association between higher cigarette tax scores and lower cigarette consumption. To reduce tobacco consumption, governments must strive to implement all four components in the Cigarette Tax Scorecard at the highest level.

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine.

METHODS

We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average.

RESULTS

Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000.

DISCUSSION

Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Cigarette prices and smoking among adults in eight sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey

BACKGROUND

Despite growing concern over tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking behaviour in the region is limited.

OBJECTIVES

To provide new evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking in eight sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

The analysis uses data from 51 270 individuals taken from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, which was conducted in eight African countries during 2012-2018. The relationship between prices and smoking is estimated using probit models for smoking participation and generalised linear models for conditional cigarette demand.

RESULTS

Higher prices are significantly associated with lower cigarette demand across African countries. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.362 (95% CI -0.547 to -0.177). The price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is -0.133 (95% CI -0.194 to -0.072) for people who have just started smoking. The estimated total price elasticity of cigarette demand by new adult smokers is -0.495. The absolute value of the conditional demand elasticity becomes smaller by 0.004 units for each additional year that a person smokes. For the average smoker in the sample, with a smoking duration of 18.07 years, the total elasticity estimate is -0.422.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cigarette prices significantly decrease the likelihood of smoking and decrease the intensity of cigarette consumption among African adults. Increases in the excise tax that increase the retail price of cigarettes will play an important role in reducing adult tobacco use on the continent. Governments are encouraged to increase excise taxes to improve public health.

Associations between alcohol taxes and varied health outcomes among women of reproductive age and infants

OBJECTIVE

No studies have examined whether alcohol taxes may be relevant for reducing harms related to pregnant people's drinking.

METHOD

We examined how beverage-specific ad valorem, volume-based, and sales taxes are associated with outcomes across three data sets. Drinking outcomes came from women of reproductive age in the 1990-2020 US National Alcohol Surveys (N = 11 659 women $\le$ 44 years); treatment admissions data came from the 1992-2019 Treatment Episode Data Set: Admissions (N = 1331 state-years; 582 436 pregnant women admitted to treatment); and infant and maternal outcomes came from the 2005-19 Merative Marketscan® database (1 432 979 birthing person-infant dyads). Adjusted analyses for all data sets included year fixed effects, state-year unemployment and poverty, and accounted for clustering by state.

RESULTS

Models yield no robust significant associations between taxes and drinking. Increased spirits ad valorem taxes were robustly associated with lower rates of treatment admissions [adjusted IRR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.99]. Increased wine and spirits volume-based taxes were both robustly associated with lower odds of infant morbidities [wine aOR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99; spirits aOR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.00] and lower odds of severe maternal morbidities [wine aOR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.97; spirits aOR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92, 0.97]. Having an off-premise spirits sales tax was also robustly related to lower odds of severe maternal morbidities [aOR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.96].

CONCLUSIONS

Results show protective associations between increased wine and spirits volume-based and sales taxes with infant and maternal morbidities. Policies that index tax rates to inflation might yield more public health benefits, including for pregnant people and infants.

Tax revenue lost due to illicit cigarettes in South Africa: 2002-2022

OBJECTIVE

To estimate lost excise and value-added tax (VAT) revenue as a result of illicit cigarette trade from 2002 to 2022.

DESIGN

Using gap analysis, we estimated the number of illicit cigarettes by calculating the difference between the number of self-reported cigarettes (derived from nationally representative surveys) and the number of legal (tax-paid) cigarettes (derived from government sources) from 2002 to 2022. We then calculated the excise and VAT revenue that the government lost through illicit trade, taking into account that some people would have quit or reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (ie, tax paid).

SETTING

South Africa.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Illicit trade estimates and lost revenue estimates.

RESULTS

The illicit cigarette market comprised 5% of the market in 2009, peaked at 60% in 2021, and decreased to 58% in 2022. Accounting for the fact that some people would have reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (had the illicit marke not existed), the government lost R15 billion in excise revenue and R3 billion in VAT revenue in 2022. From 2002 to 2022, the government lost R119 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue. The majority of the lost revenue occurred in the period 2010 to 2022, where R110 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue was lost. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis indicates that the estimated lost revenue of R119 billion from 2002 to 2022 falls within the range of R65 billion to R130 billion (all 2022 prices).

CONCLUSIONS

The South African government has been losing a significant amount of revenue by not receiving excise and VAT from all cigarettes consumed in South Africa. This trend is likely to continue if the government does not secure the supply chain from the point of production to the point of sale.

Estimating the potential impact of a health tax on the demand for unhealthy food and beverages and on tax revenue in India

Foods high in fat, sugar or salt are important contributors to the rising burden of non-communicable diseases globally and in India. Health taxes (HTs) have been used by over 70 countries as an effective tool for reducing consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, the potential impacts of HTs on consumption and on revenues have not been estimated in India. This paper aims to estimate the potential impact of health taxes on the demand for sugar, SSBs and foods high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) in India while exploring its impact on tax revenues. PE of sugar was estimated using Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Price Index data while price elasticities for SSBs and HFSS were obtained from literature. The reduction in demand was estimated for an additional 10-30% HT added to the current goods and services tax, for varying levels of price elasticities. The results show that for manufacturers of sweets and confectionaries who buy sugar in bulk and assuming a higher price elasticity of -0.70, 20% additional HT (total tax 48%) would result in 13-18% decrease in the demand for sugar used for confectionaries and sweets. For SSBs, HT of 10-30% would result in 7-30% decline in the demand of SSBs. For HFSS food products, 10-30% HT would result in 5-24% decline in the demand for HFSS products. These additional taxes would increase tax revenues for the government by 12-200% across different scenarios. Taxing unhealthy foods is likely to reduce demand, while increasing government revenues for reinvestment back into public health programmes and policies that may reduce obesity and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in India.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Advertising and Stocking at Small Retailers: A Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in Philadelphia

INTRODUCTION

In 2017, Philadelphia enacted a $0.015 per ounce excise tax on SBs that covered both sugar-sweetened beverages and artificially-sweetened beverages, which reduced purchasing and consumption. This study assessed whether the tax also changed beverage advertising or stocking practices that could influence consumer behavior among stores in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Philadelphia-adjacent counties not subject to the tax.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal difference-in-differences approach, beverage advertising and availability changes were evaluated from 4-month pretax to 6-, 12-, and 24-month post-implementation in small independent stores in Philadelphia (n=34) and Philadelphia-adjacent counties (n=38) versus Baltimore (n=43), a demographically similar city without a tax. Mixed effects models tested whether beverage advertising/availability increased in Philadelphia and surrounding counties after implementation versus Baltimore, included store-level random intercepts, and were stratified by beverage tax status, type, size, and store ZIP code income. Data were collected from 2016 to 2018, and analyses were performed in 2022-2023.

RESULTS

SB advertising increased post-tax in Philadelphia (6 months= +1.04 advertisements/store [95% CI=0.27, 1.80]; 12 months= +1.54 [95% CI=0.57, 2.52]; 24 months= +0.91 [95% CI=0.09, 1.72]) relative to Baltimore. This was driven by increased advertising of sweetened beverages in low-income ZIP codes. Marketing of SBs increased significantly in Philadelphia-adjacent counties relative to Baltimore. Although SB availability in Philadelphia did not change, it increased in surrounding county stores (6 months= +0.20 [95% CI=0.15, 0.25]; 12 months= +0.08 [95% CI=0.03, 0.12]) relative to Baltimore.

CONCLUSIONS

Marketing of SBs, especially in low-income neighborhoods and in surrounding counties, increased following Philadelphia's beverage tax among small, independent retailers. These increases in advertising might have dampened the tax's effect on purchasing behaviors, although estimated effects on sales remained large.

The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Physical and Mental health-Results from the Atlanta Paycheck Plus Experiment

Policy Points The Paycheck Plus randomized controlled trial tested a fourfold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults without dependent children over 3 years in New York and Atlanta. In New York, the intervention improved economic, mental, and physical health outcomes. In Atlanta, it had no economic benefit or impact on physical health and may have worsened mental health. In Atlanta, tax filing and bonus receipt were lower than in the New York arm of the trial, which may explain the lack of economic benefits. Lower mental health scores in the treatment group were driven by disadvantaged men, and the study sample was in good mental health.

CONTEXT

The Paycheck Plus experiment examined the effects of an enhanced Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults on economic and health outcomes in Atlanta, GA and New York City (NYC). The NYC study was completed two years prior to the Atlanta study and found mental and physical benefits for the subgroups that responded best to the economic incentives provided. In this article, we present the findings from the Atlanta study, in which the uptake of the treatment (tax filings and EITC bonus) were lower and economic and health benefits were not observed.

METHODS

Paycheck Plus Atlanta was an unblinded randomized controlled trial that assigned n = 3,971 participants to either the standard federal EITC (control group) or an EITC supplement of up to $2,000 (treatment group) for three tax years (2017-2019). Administrative data on employment and earnings were obtained from the Georgia Department of Labor and survey data were used to examine validated measures of health and well-being.

FINDINGS

In Atlanta, the treatment group had significantly higher earnings in the first project year but did not have significantly higher cumulative earnings than the control group overall (mean difference = $1,812, 95% CI = -150, 3,774, p = 0.07). The treatment group also had significantly lower scores on two measures of mental health after the intervention was complete: the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (mean difference = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.32, p = 0.005) and the Kessler 6 (mean difference = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.27, p = 0.012). Secondary analyses suggested these results were driven by disadvantaged men, but the study sample was in good mental health.

CONCLUSIONS

The EITC experiment in Atlanta was not associated with gains in earnings or improvements in physical or mental health.

Association of cigarette excise taxes and clean indoor air laws with change in smoking behavior in the United States: a Markov modeling analysis

The rates of cigarette smoking in the United States have declined over the past few decades in parallel with increases in cigarette taxes and introduction of more stringent clean indoor air laws. Few longitudinal studies have examined association of taxes and clean indoor air policies with change in smoking nationally. This study examined the association of state and local cigarette taxes and clean indoor laws with change in smoking status of 18,499 adult participants of the longitudinal 2010-2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey over a period of 1 year. Every $1 increase in cigarette excise taxes was associated with 36% higher likelihood of stopping smoking among regular smokers. We found no association between clean indoor air laws and smoking cessation nor between taxes and clean indoor air laws with lower risk of smoking initiation. Cigarette taxes appear to be effective anti-smoking policies. Some state and local governments do not take full advantage of this effective policy measure.