Turbulent dynamics in a XVIIth century population

"A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux [France] (1589-1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator....An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so-called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions. The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good....A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Changes in reproductive function among remarried women: the effects of spousal characteristics

"This paper examines the relationship between change in childbearing function from a woman's first to second marriage and the degree of similarity between her first and second husbands in age, education, and religion. Using data from the [U.S.] 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, the specific hypothesis tested is: where plans are similar, the second husband tends to resemble the first to a greater extent than where childbearing functions differ. Separate tests relating to age, education, and religion provide only limited support for this hypothesis. However, when the various tests are considered collectively as a system, the weight of the evidence provides general support for the hypotheses. The implications of these findings for understanding trends in marriage are discussed."

The context of migration: the example of Ireland in the nineteenth century

"A classic case where out-migration interacted with many other geographical phenomena is provided by rural Ireland in the nineteenth century. The apparent turning point was the Great Famine of the 1840s, but the areas with the greatest suffering from starvation did not necessarily show the greatest population decline, suggesting that other forces were active. Considerable economic and social changes were already taking place before the Famine: fertility was being reduced, later marriage was becoming established and considerable emigration was already taking place. Immediately after the Famine those areas which had been hardest hit often reverted to pre-Famine conditions and did not show strong population decline until the 1870s. The Famine was a most serious event, but the modernization of Irish rural life, which linked emigration with changes in family structure, agriculture and population numbers, was more important in bringing about geographical change."

Local hazard models

"We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential model and a local Gompertz model--from data in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population Survey. We also compare results of the local hazard models with those of Cox's model, an exponential model, a piecewise exponential model, and a piecewise Gompertz model. Estimates for the local exponential and local Gompertz models agree closely with nonparametric estimates for various subgroups. Moreover, results of the local models provide interesting substantive insights into the process of first marriage that are not easily obtained from global models."

Women's childhood experience of parental separation and their subsequent health and socioeconomic status in adulthood

The long term consequences for women of parental divorce and separation in childhood are explored using data from a national, prospective, longitudinal survey. In comparison with women who suffered no parental loss, parental divorce is associated with lower educational attainment and occupational status, poorer mental health, higher alcohol consumption and higher rates of remarriage. Links with earlier signs of emotional disturbance and current levels of stress are explored.

The problem posed by immigrants married abroad on intermarriage research: the case of Asian Americans

"Cross-sectional and longitudinal variations in rates of intergroup marriage [in the United States] have often been used as indicators of assimilation for minority groups. This article demonstrates that both types of comparisons can give misleading results when census data are used for calculating intermarriage rates without restrictions. Census data include immigrants who married abroad (IMAs) in the enumeration. The inclusion of these individuals in the study of intermarriage inevitably biases the level of minority inmarriage upward, making cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons of intermarriage rates for groups with different levels of IMAs inappropriate. Cumulation of IMAs also inflates the inmarriage rates of older cohorts, leading to a misimpression of increasing outmarriage among younger cohorts. These problems are illustrated for several Asian groups using 1980 Public Use Microdata Sample data for California. Alternative approaches for remedying the problem are proposed and their different implications for assimilation theory and research are discussed."

Delayed childbearing in Canada: trends and factors

"Using period and cohort birth order statistics, an overview of the phenomenon of delayed childbearing in Canada is presented. Data employed in the period analysis were mainly from the years 1944 to 1985, while women born between the years 1935 and 1960 were the subjects of the cohort analysis. An examination of selected indices, namely, age-specific first-birth fertility rates, median ages of women at first-order birth and cumulative first-order birth rates shows that there is an overall trend for women to postpone the initiation of childbearing until late twenties or early thirties.... The results indicate that work experience, education, occupation and year of marriage are important variables influencing age at first birth and first-birth interval." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)

Marriage and mortality: a life table analysis

This paper examines the effects of age at marriage and differential mortality of males and females on the incidence of widowhood between the sexes. Abridged life tables constructed from marital status and death registration data of a rural area of Bangladesh for the period 1974-79 were used. The difference in life expectancy between males and females varies from 0.4 to 2.2 years at the ages 0 to 65 years and over. The mortality differentials show that the probabilities of a male or a female surviving the other spouse would be approximately the same, were there no other influence. But the incidence of widows is about ten times that of widowers. Other relevant factors, under a given regime of mortality, are age at marriage and age difference between husband and wife.

On marriage-specific human capital: its role as a determinant of remarriage

"This paper focuses on the determinants of the likelihood and timing of remarriage for women: which characteristics of women and their first unions are conducive to quick remarriage and which are associated with low remarriage probabilities?... By analyzing the role of transferable marriage-specific capital as an asset, the present paper suggests a reinterpretation of past results and shows that such human capital constitutes an important component of women's gains from remarriage....[It] studies the determinants of remarriage separately for white and black women. The effects of the duration of first union and the presence of children from that union on remarriage probabilities are found to differ by race, results which can be interpreted within the context of the model developed here." Data from the 1982 U.S. National Survey of Family Growth are used to test the model.