Temporal trends and long term follow-up of implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy for secondary prevention: A 15-year single-centre experience

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine overall and aetiology-related incidence of secondary prevention ICD implantation over the last 15years in Canton Ticino and to assess clinical outcome according to time period of implantation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutive patients treated by implantation of an ICD for secondary prevention from 2000 to 2015 were included in the current study and compared between 5-year cohorts (2000/2004; 2005/2009; 2010/2015). Yearly implantation rate, changing in clinical presentation over years and events during follow-up were evaluated. One-hundred fifty six patients were included. ICD implantation rate increased from 2.1 in 2000-2005 to 5.1 in 2010-2015, respectively (p 0.001). There was an increase in the proportion of non-ischaemic patients and of ventricular tachycardia (VT) as presenting rhythm. No differences in appropriate ICD interventions were observed according to aetiology, presenting arrhythmia or type of device. Reverse remodelling was observed more often in non-ischaemic patients, without any influence on the occurrence of appropriate interventions. Previous myocardial infarction (MI), atrial fibrillation (AF), NYHA class 2-3 and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)<35% were predictors of appropriate therapies during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Rate of implants for secondary prevention indication has almost doubled during the last 15years. Importantly, there has been a progressive increase of non-ischaemic patients receiving an ICD, and of VT as presenting rhythm. Patients had an overall good survival and a relatively low incidence of appropriate therapies. Improvement of ejection fraction did not correlate with risk reduction of ventricular arrhythmias.

Predictors of survival in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS): an observational study

BACKGROUND

Currently there is no ARDS definition or classification system that allows optimal prediction of mortality in ARDS patients. This study aimed to examine the predictive values of the AECC and Berlin definitions, as well as clinical and respiratory parameters obtained at onset of ARDS and in the course of the first seven consecutive days.

METHODS

The observational study was conducted at a 14-bed intensive care unit specialized on treatment of ARDS. Predictive validity of the AECC and Berlin definitions as well as P_aO₂/F_iO₂ and F_iO₂/P_aO₂*P_mean (oxygenation index) on mortality of ARDS patients was assessed and statistically compared.

RESULTS

Four hundred forty two critically-ill patients admitted for ARDS were analysed. Multivariate Cox regression indicated that the oxygenation index was the most accurate parameter for mortality prediction. The third day after ARDS criteria were met at our hospital was found to represent the best compromise between earliness and accuracy of prognosis of mortality regarding the time of assessment. An oxygenation index of 15 or greater was associated with higher mortality, longer length of stay in ICU and hospital and longer duration of mechanical ventilation. In addition, non-survivors had a significantly longer length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation in referring hospitals before admitted to the national reference centre than survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

The oxygenation index is suggested to be the most suitable parameter to predict mortality in ARDS, preferably assessed on day 3 after admission to a specialized centre. Patients might benefit when transferred to specialized ICU centres as soon as possible for further treatment.

Hemodynamic, management, and outcomes of patients admitted to emergency department with heart failure

Background

Heart failure is one of the leading reasons for hospitalization in developed countries. Our goal was to describe the hemodynamic vital signs (heart rate and systolic blood pressure) of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with heart failure and to describe the frequency of adverse events for patients presenting with various heart rate and systolic blood pressure values.

Method

We conducted two prospective cohort studies of heart failure conducted at six Canadian teaching hospital sites and this study was a secondary analysis of these data. The primary outcome was serious adverse events defined as death from any cause within 30 days of the ED visit or any complication following within 14 days of the index ED visit.

Results

We included a convenience sample of adults > 50 years of age who presented with acute shortness of breath or new-onset heart failure. In total, 1,638 patients were included in this analysis. Patients with heart rates < 50 % MHR (maximal heart rate) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) > 140 mmHg had the lowest rate of serious adverse events (6 %). patients with heart rates > 75 % MHR had the highest rate of serious adverse events, regardless of the SBP. Among patients with heart rates > 75 % MHR, the proportion of serious adverse events decreased as SBP increased (30 % when SBP < 120 mmHg, 24 % when SBP between 120 and 140 mmHg, and 21 % when SBP > 140 mm Hg). Patients with heart rates < 50 % MHR and with SBP > 140 mm Hg had the lowest rate of admissions to hospital (38 %).

Conclusions

We found a relatively high frequency of serious adverse events among patients who present to the ED with heart failure, particularly among the patients having low systolic blood pressure and high heart rate.

Frailty and postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for degenerative spine disease

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Frailty is defined as a state of decreased reserve and susceptibility to stressors. The relationship between frailty and postoperative outcomes after degenerative spine surgery has not been studied.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to (1) determine prevalence of frailty in the degenerative spine population; (2) describe patient characteristics associated with frailty; and (3) determine the association between frailty and postoperative complications, mortality, length of stay, and discharge disposition.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective analysis on a prospectively collected cohort from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP).

PATIENT SAMPLE

A total of 53,080 patients who underwent degenerative spine surgery between 2006 and 2012 were included in the study.

OUTCOME MEASURES

A modified frailty index (mFI) with 11 variables derived from the NSQIP dataset was used to determine prevalence of frailty and its correlation with a composite outcome of perioperative complications as well as hospital length of stay, mortality, and discharge disposition.

METHODS

After calculating the mFI for each patient, the prevalence and predictors of frailty were determined for our cohort. The association of frailty with postoperative outcomes was determined after adjusting for known and suspected confounders using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Frailty was present in 2,041 patients within the total population (4%) and in 8% of patients older than 65 years. Frailty severity increased with increasing age, male sex, African American race, higher body mass index, recent weight loss, paraplegia or quadriplegia, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, and preadmission residence in a care facility. Frailty severity was an independent predictor of major complication (OR 1.15 for every 0.10 increase in mFI, 95%CI 1.09-1.21, p<.0005) and specifically predicted reoperation for postsurgical infection (OR 1.3, 95%CI 1.16-1.46, p<.0005). Prolonged length of stay and discharge to a new facility were also independently predicted by frailty severity (p<.0005). Frailty severity predicted 30-day mortality on unadjusted (OR 2.05, 95%CI 1.70-2.48, p<.0005) and adjusted analyses (OR 1.48, 95%CI 1.18-1.86, p<.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is an important predictor of postoperative outcomes following degenerative spine surgery. Preoperative recognition of frailty may be useful for perioperative optimization, risk stratification, and patient counseling.

Rationale and study design of the prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study "rISk strAtification in end-stage renal disease" (ISAR) study

Background

The ISAR study is a prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study to improve the cardiovascular risk stratification in endstage renal disease (ESRD). The major goal is to characterize the cardiovascular phenotype of the study subjects, namely alterations in micro- and macrocirculation and to determine autonomic function.

Methods/design

We intend to recruit 500 prevalent dialysis patients in 17 centers in Munich and the surrounding area. Baseline examinations include: (1) biochemistry, (2) 24-h Holter Electrocardiography (ECG) recordings, (3) 24-h ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM), (4) 24 h pulse wave analysis (PWA) and pulse wave velocity (PWV), (5) retinal vessel analysis (RVA) and (6) neurocognitive testing. After 24 months biochemistry and determination of single PWA, single PWV and neurocognitive testing are repeated. Patients will be followed up to 6 years for (1) hospitalizations, (2) cardiovascular and (3) non-cardiovascular events and (4) cardiovascular and (5) all-cause mortality.

Discussion/conclusion

We aim to create a complex dataset to answer questions about the insufficiently understood pathophysiology leading to excessively high cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality in dialysis patients. Finally we hope to improve cardiovascular risk stratification in comparison to the use of classical and non-classical (dialysis-associated) risk factors and other models of risk stratification in ESRD patients by building a multivariable Cox-Regression model using a combination of the parameters measured in the study.

Clinical trials identifier

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01152892 (June 28, 2010)

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications

BACKGROUND

Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes.

METHODS

We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication) and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death) were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4-95.8) and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4-21.1). Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3-96.5) and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7-21.5) for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9-89.2) and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2-22.0) for any complication.

CONCLUSION

IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

Risk stratification of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Chinese adults

Objective

This study aims to determine the distribution of observed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) incidence in contemporary cohorts in China, and to identify cut-off points for ASCVD risk classification based on traditional criteria and new equations developed by Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR).

Methods

The study populations included cohorts in the China-PAR project, with 34,757 participants eligible for the current analysis. Traditional risk stratification was assessed by using Chinese guidelines on prevention of CVD and hypertension, and 5 risk groups were classified based on these guidelines after slight modification for available risk factors. Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative incidence of observed ASCVD events for all subjects and sub-groups. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was obtained using the China-PAR equations.

Results

A total of 1922 ASCVD events were identified during an average follow-up of 14.1 years. According to the group classification based on traditional risk stratification, the observed 10-year risks for ASCVD were 4.61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.11–5.10%) in the moderate-risk group and 8.74% (95% CI: 7.82–9.66%) in the high-risk group. Based on the China-PAR equations for risk assessment of ASCVD, those with predicted risks of <5%, 5–10%, and ≥10% could be classified into categories of low-, moderate-, and high-risk for ASCVD, respectively.

Conclusion

The findings enable development of a simple method for classification of individuals into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, based on the China-PAR equations. The method will be useful for self-management and prevention of ASCVD in Chinese adults.

Gender-related differences in pulmonary arterial hypertension targeted drugs administration

During the last 15 years, a real "paradigm-shift" occurred, due to the development of PAH-targeted drugs, leading to crucial improvements in symptoms, exercise capacity, hemodynamics and outcome of PAH patients. In order to describe differences regarding epidemiology and therapy in PAH according to gender, we performed a review of the available literature in "PubMed" and "Web of Science" databases. In order to find relevant articles, we combined each of the following the keywords "pulmonary arterial hypertension", "gender", "sex", "men", "woman", "male", "female", "phosphodiesterase inhibitors", "endothelin receptor antagonists", "prostanoids". While there is a substantial agreement among epidemiological studies in reporting an increased prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) among women, male PAH patients are affected by a higher impairment of the right ventricular function and consequently experience poorer outcomes. With regards to PAH-targeted drug administration, endothelin receptor antagonists (ERAs) and prostacyclin analogues (PC) show better treatment results in female PAH patients, while phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors (PD5-I) seem to exert a more beneficial effect on male patients. However, to date no clear consensus could be formed by the available literature, which is constituted mainly by retrospective studies. Females with PAH are more prone to develop PAH, while males experience poorer outcomes. Females PAH might benefit more from ERAs and PC, while males seem to have more beneficial effects from PD5-I administration. However, more research is warranted in order to assess the most effective treatment for PAH patients according to gender.

Does a modified STarT Back Tool predict outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients than back pain? A secondary analysis of cohort data

OBJECTIVES

The STarT Back Tool has good predictive performance for non-specific low back pain in primary care. We therefore aimed to investigate whether a modified STarT Back Tool predicted outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients, and assessed the consequences of using existing risk-group cut-points across different pain regions.

SETTING

Secondary analysis of prospective data from 2 cohorts: (1) outpatient musculoskeletal physiotherapy services (PhysioDirect trial n=1887) and (2) musculoskeletal primary-secondary care interface services (SAMBA study n=1082).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with back, neck, upper limb, lower limb or multisite pain with a completed modified STarT Back Tool (baseline) and 6-month physical health outcome (Short Form 36 (SF-36)).

OUTCOMES

Area under the receiving operator curve (AUCs) tested discriminative abilities of the tool's baseline score for identifying poor 6-month outcome (SF-36 lower tertile Physical Component Score). Risk-group cut-points were tested using sensitivity and specificity for identifying poor outcome using (1) Youden's J statistic and (2) a clinically determined rule that specificity should not fall below 0.7 (false-positive rate <30%).

RESULTS

In PhysioDirect and SAMBA, poor 6-month physical health was 18.5% and 28.2%, respectively. Modified STarT Back Tool score AUCs for predicting outcome in back pain were 0.72 and 0.79, neck 0.82 and 0.88, upper limb 0.79 and 0.86, lower limb 0.77 and 0.83, and multisite pain 0.83 and 0.82 in PhysioDirect and SAMBA, respectively. Differences between pain region AUCs were non-significant. Optimal cut-points to discriminate low-risk and medium-risk/high-risk groups depended on pain region and clinical services.

CONCLUSIONS

A modified STarT Back Tool similarly predicts 6-month physical health outcome across 5 musculoskeletal pain regions. However, the use of consistent risk-group cut-points was not possible and resulted in poor sensitivity (too many with long-term disability being missed) or specificity (too many with good outcome inaccurately classified as 'at risk') for some pain regions. The draft tool is now being refined and validated within a new programme of research for a broader musculoskeletal population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN55666618; Post results.

Left ventricular ejection fraction and presence of myocardial necrosis assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging correctly risk stratify patients with stable coronary artery disease: a multi-center all-comers trial

BACKGROUND

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) has become a diagnostic modality that allows for prognostic risk stratification in various cardiac diseases. CMR derived detection of myocardial necrosis by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and assessment of left ventricular functional parameters such as left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) have been proven to be significantly associated with outcome and prognosis. Our study focusses on the validation of specific thresholds for these parameters in a multi-center daily all-comers cohort of stable coronary artery disease (CAD) patients.

METHODS

Multi-center data from tertiary high-volume CMR centers were pooled. Patients referred for viability testing for known or suspected CAD were enrolled. Functional parameters of both ventricles and myocardial necrosis were assessed. The primary endpoint was defined as cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. A multi-model approach was used for the evaluation of the predictive power of several LVEF thresholds and LGE.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 2422 patients. Median age was 66 years; 25.9 % were female. Median follow-up was 2.86 years. During the follow-up period, 187 primary endpoints occurred. On multi-model testing, optimal thresholds for LVEF could be defined at ≤50 and ≤35 %. The addition of LGE as categorical variable further lead to a significant improvement of each risk prediction model, whilst quantification of LGE affection had no additional prognostic impact.

CONCLUSION

LVEF thresholds at ≤50 and ≤35 % in combination with the assessment of LGE presence allows for excellent discrimination between low, mid and high prognostic risk in stable CAD.

Acute pulmonary thromboembolism: Epidemiology, predictors, and long-term outcome - A single center experience

INTRODUCTION

Acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a life-threatening disease. Mortality in PTE still remains very high in spite of progress in diagnostic tools. Mortality rate is about 30% in patients with unrecognized acute PTE.

METHODS

It is a single center observational study of 31 consecutive patients who were hospitalized in the Department of Cardiology at MS Ramaiah Memorial hospital between January 1, 2010 and June 2015. All the patients confirmed with diagnosis of acute PTE by CT scan (either HRCT or CTPA) were included in the study. Following relevant investigations chosen patients were risk stratified as per standard guidelines into massive, sub massive or low risk and treated accordingly. The included patients were followed up for a period of 1 year with 2D-echocardiogram and other relevant investigations for comparison to assess improvement. Mortality due to either acute PTE or other causes was noted in the study.

RESULTS

Of the 31 patients enrolled in our study, 71% (n=22) of the patients belonged to the age range 20-50 years with those in the age group 31-40 years comprising 39% (n=12) of the total. Elderly people over 65 years of age comprised only 19% (n=6) of the total number of patients. Dyslipidemia, prolonged immobilization, deep vein thrombosis, post-operative state, malignancy and post-partum period were the commonly reported risk factors. We thrombolysed a total of 18 (58%) patients with massive and submassive PTE, of which 12 (39%) received tenecteplase and 6 patients received streptokinase (19%). Three (9%) patients required repeat thrombolysis with streptokinase due to failed thrombolytic therapy with tenecteplase.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reported higher incidence of acute PTE in the middle age group population. Prevalence of dyslipidemia was high in this cohort of patients studied although the exact association of it in APE could not be determined. Thrombolytic therapy can be considered for patients with both massive and submassive pulmonary thromboembolism. Repeat thrombolysis can be considered in case one thrombolytic agent failed to give the desirable results.

Reference ranges and determinants of right ventricle outflow tract acceleration time in healthy adults by two-dimensional echocardiography

The right ventricular outflow tract acceleration time (RVOT-AT) has shown to progressively shorten with increasing degrees of pulmonary pressure. However, the physiologic ranges of RVOT AT are based on small sample sizes and have not been investigated regarding their determining factors. The aim of this study was to investigate reference values and determining factors of RVOT-AT in a large population of healthy subjects and by values described in the literature. In the first part of the study, 1029 healthy subjects (mean age 45.6 ± 16.0 years, 565 (54.7 %) females) were prospectively assessed by clinical examination including demography, vital signs and echocardiography. In the second part, we performed a pooled analysis of eight published studies describing RVOT-AT in healthy subjects (n = 450). Statistical analysis included the calculation of 5 % quantiles for defining reference values. RVOT-AT significantly but weakly correlated with age (r: -0.207; p < 0.001), body mass Index (r: -0.16), systolic (r: -0.158) and diastolic (r: -0.137) blood pressure, heart rate (r: -0.197) and left ventricular (LV) E/A ratio (r: 0.229) (all p < 0.001). No differences were found with regards to sex. In a synopsis of both prospective and literature-based data sets, RVOT-AT weighted means was 138.51 ms and the 5 % quantile was 104.7 ms (95 % confidence interval 98.2-110.1). This study delineates the range of RVOT-AT in healthy adults and it's determining factors. Our study is in line with the cut-off value stated by the European guidelines with an RVOT-AT ≤105 ms denoting abnormal values.

MEDical wards Invasive Candidiasis ALgorithms (MEDICAL):Consensus proposal for management

INTRODUCTION

A majority of invasive Candida infections occur in medical wards; however, evidence for management in this setting is scarce and based primarily on the intensive care or surgical setting. On behalf of the Italian Society for Anti-Infective Therapy (SITA) and the Italian Federation of Associations of Hospital Doctors on Internal Medicine (FADOI), the MEDICAL group produced practical management algorithms for patients in internal medicine wards.

METHODS

The MEDICAL group panel, composed of 30 members from internal medicine, infectious disease, clinical pharmacology, clinical microbiology and clinical epidemiology, provided expert opinion through the RAND/UCLA method.

RESULTS

Seven clinical scenarios were constructed based on clinical severity and probability of invasive candidiasis. For each scenario, the appropriateness of 63 different diagnostic, imaging, management, or therapeutic procedures was determined in two Delphi rounds. The necessity for performing each appropriate procedure, was then determined in a third Delphi round. Results were summarized in algorithms.

DISCUSSION

The proposed algorithms provide internal medicine physicians and managers with an easy to interpret tool that is exhaustive, clear and suitable for adaption to individual local settings. Attention was paid to individual patient management and resource allocation.

Advanced prostate cancer survival in Spain according to the Gleason score, age and stage

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the overall and disaggregated survival based on the Gleason score, age and extent of a patient cohort diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer according to standard clinical practice.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

We used an observational and retrospective design for the study. For each patient, we recorded clinical variables such as the extent (metastatic or locally advanced), Gleason score, age, date of diagnosis, date of last contact with the health system and the vital status during the last contact. We used univariate and multivariate statistical techniques of survival. The parametric survival methods enabled us to calculate the mean survival using extrapolation. We analysed 219 patients treated in the public health system between 2008 and 2011. The analysis showed statistically significant differences in survival depending on Gleason score, age and stage. The longest survival was in the subgroup younger than 75 years, with a local extent and a low-risk category on the Gleason scale (19.41 years), and the shortest survival (0.97 years) was in the 75 years or older group. The survival of the other subgroups ranged between these outliers.

CONCLUSION

The main contribution of this study is that it is the first to calculate the mean survival of advanced prostate cancer in Spain in terms of the variables of our study population. This information helps clinicians predict the life expectancy of each patient according to their prognostic factors.

Malignant tumors of the liver in children

This article aims to give an overview of pediatric liver tumors; in particular of the two most frequently occurring groups of hepatoblastomas and hepatocellular carcinomas. Focus lays on achievements gained through worldwide collaboration. We present recent advances in insight, treatment results, and future questions to be asked. Increasing international collaboration between the four major Pediatric Liver Tumor Study Groups (SIOPEL/GPOH, COG, and JPLT) may serve as a paradigm to approach rare tumors. This international effort has been catalyzed by the Children's Hepatic tumor International Collaboration (CHIC) formation of a large collaborative database. Interrogation of this database has led to a new universal risk stratification system for hepatoblastoma using PRETEXT/POSTTEXT staging as a backbone. Pathologists in this international collaboration have established a new histopathological consensus classification for pediatric liver tumors. Concomitantly there have been advances in chemotherapy options, an increased role of liver transplantation for unresectable tumors, and a web portal system developed at www.siopel.org for international education, consultation, and collaboration. These achievements will be further tested and validated in the upcoming Paediatric Hepatic International Tumour Trial (PHITT).

Risk stratification and predictive risk-scoring model for lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

We are increasingly experiencing difficulty in deciding whether to perform gastrectomy after noncurative endoscopic resection of early gastric cancer (EGC) for patients at high risk for surgery. If the differences in risk for lymph node metastasis (LNM) on the basis of noncurative status are understood, the decision becomes easier. The present study aimed to stratify the LNM risk and develop and validate a risk-scoring model for predicting LNM.

METHODS

By retrospectively reviewing 3131 patients with solitary EGC who underwent gastrectomy with lymphadenectomy at our institution between July 1997 and May 2013, LNM risk was stratified and a risk-scoring model was developed on the basis of the identified independent risk factors for LNM. The scoring was validated using 352 other surgically resected EGC cases. The discriminatory accuracy of the scoring was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

LNM was detected in 386 of 3131 cases. LNM risk in each subgroup, stratified by the identified independent risk factors, such as tumor size, depth, histological type, ulcerative findings, and lymphovascular involvement, considerably varied from 0 % to >50 % even among the current guidelines' noncurative subgroups. An 11-point scoring model was built, and AUROCs were 0.84 (95 % confidence interval, 0.82-0.86) and 0.82 (0.75-0.88) in the development and validation sets, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study revealed detailed LNM risk stratification data, and developed and validated an 11-point scoring model.

Recent biologic and genetic advances in neuroblastoma: Implications for diagnostic, risk stratification, and treatment strategies

Neuroblastoma is an embryonic cancer of neural crest cell lineage, accounting for up to 10% of all pediatric cancer. The clinical course is heterogeneous ranging from spontaneous regression in neonates to life-threatening metastatic disease in older children. Much of this clinical variance is thought to result from distinct pathologic characteristics that predict patient outcomes. Consequently, many research efforts have been focused on identifying the underlying biologic and genetic features of neuroblastoma tumors in order to more clearly define prognostic subgroups for treatment stratification. Recent technological advances have placed emphasis on the integration of genetic alterations and predictive biologic variables into targeted treatment approaches to improve patient survival outcomes. This review will focus on these recent advances and the implications they have on the diagnostic, staging, and treatment approaches in modern neuroblastoma clinical management.

Natural history and risk stratification of patients undergoing non-invasive ventilation in a non-ICU setting for severe COPD exacerbations

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) delivered in an intensive care unit (ICU) has become the cornerstone in the treatment of patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. A trend towards managing these patients in non-ICU setting has emerged in recent years, although out-of-hospital survival by this approach and how to prognosticate it is unknown. We aimed to investigate these issues. We consecutively recruited 100 patients (49 males; median age 82 years) who received NIV treatment for acute respiratory failure due to COPD exacerbation in non-ICU medical wards of our hospital, between November 2008 and July 2012. We assessed survival (both in-hospital and out-of-hospital) of all these patients, and analyzed baseline parameters in a Cox proportional hazards model to develop a prognostic score. The median survival in the study population was 383 days (240-980). Overall survival rates were 71.0, 65.3, and 52.7 % at 1, 3, and 12 months, respectively. Age >85 years, a history of heart disorders and a neutrophil count ≥10 × 10(9) were associated with higher mortality at Cox's analysis (χ (2) = 35.766, p = 0.0001), and were used to build a prognostic score (NC85). The presence of two or more factors determined the deepest drop in survival (when NC85 ≥2, mortality at 1, 3, and 12 was 60.7, 70.4, and 77.2 %, respectively, while when NC85 = 0 were 4.0, 4.0, and 14.0 %). A simple model, based on three variables (age, neutrophil count and history of heart disease), accurately predicts survival of COPD patients receiving NIV in a non-ICU setting.

Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedure in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Risk stratification for kidney sparing procedures (KSP) to treat upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a major issue. A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms “upper tract urothelial carcinoma” with different combinations of keywords to review the current knowledge on this topic. Original articles, reviews and editorials in English language were selected based on their clinical relevance. Available techniques for KSP include segmental ureterectomy and endoscopic resection through a percutaneous or flexible ureteroscopic access. These approaches were traditionally restricted to patients with imperative indications. Current recommendations suggest that selected patients with normal contralateral kidney should also be candidates for such treatments. Modern imaging and endoscopy have improved to accurately stage and grade the tumor while various prognostic clinical factors and biomarkers have been proposed to identify tumor with aggressive features and worse outcomes. Several predictive models using different combinations of such baseline characteristics may help clinicians in clinical decision making. However, risk-adapted based approach that has been proposed in recent guidelines to identify patients who are more likely to benefit from KSP only relies on few clinical and pathological factors. Despite growing understanding of the disease, treatment of UTUC remains challenging. Further efforts and collaborative multicenter studies are mandatory to improve risk stratification to decide and promote optimal KSP in UTUC. These efforts should focus on the integration of promising biomarkers and predictive tools in clinical decision making.

Pulmonary embolism: the diagnosis, risk-stratification, treatment and disposition of emergency department patients

The diagnosis or exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE) remains challenging for emergency physicians. Symptoms can be vague or non-existent, and the clinical presentation shares features with many other common diagnoses. Diagnostic testing is complicated, as biomarkers, like the D-dimer, are frequently false positive, and imaging, like computed tomography pulmonary angiography, carries risks of radiation and contrast dye exposure. It is therefore incumbent on emergency physicians to be both vigilant and thoughtful about this diagnosis. In recent years, several advances in treatment have also emerged. Novel, direct-acting oral anticoagulants make the outpatient treatment of low risk PE easier than before. However, the spectrum of PE severity varies widely, so emergency physicians must be able to risk-stratify patients to ensure the appropriate disposition. Finally, PE response teams have been developed to facilitate rapid access to advanced therapies (e.g., catheter directed thrombolysis) for patients with high-risk PE. This review will discuss the clinical challenges of PE diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment that emergency physicians face every day.

[Troponin elevation in the absence of acute coronary syndrome]

Cardiac troponins are the most sensitive and specific markers of myocardial injury. Cardiac troponin elevation are common in many diseases and do not necessarily indicate the presence of a thrombotic acute coronary syndrome. In clinical practice, interpretation of dynamic changes of troponin may be challenging. Troponin evaluation should be performed only if clinically indicated and must be interpreted in the context of clinical presentation, ECG changes, troponin level and kinetic. In the absence of thrombotic acute coronary syndrom, troponin retains a prognostic value. Its practical interest as a risk criteria is limited to a few situations like pulmonary embolism, pericarditis an myocarditis.

Medulloblastoma: Tumor Biology and Relevance to Treatment and Prognosis Paradigm

Medulloblastoma is a malignant embryonic brain tumor arising in the posterior fossa and typically occurring in pediatric patients. Current multimodal treatment regimes have significantly improved the survival rates; however, a marked heterogeneity in therapy response is observed, and one third of all patients die within 5 years after diagnosis. Large-scale genetic and transcriptome analysis revealed four medulloblastoma subgroups (WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4) associated with different demographic parameters, tumor manifestation, and clinical behavior. Future treatment protocols will integrate molecular classification schemes to evaluate subgroup-specific intensification or de-escalation of adjuvant therapies aimed to increase tumor control and reduce iatrogenic induced morbidity. Furthermore, the identification of genetic drivers allows assessing target therapies in order to increase the chemotherapeutic armamentarium. This review highlights the biology behind the current classification system and elucidates relevant aspects of the disease influencing forthcoming clinical trials.

Electrocardiographic Predictors of Torsadogenic Risk During Dofetilide or Sotalol Initiation: Utility of a Novel T Wave Analysis Program

INTRODUCTION

Initiation of class III anti-arrhythmic medications requires telemetric monitoring for ventricular arrhythmias and QT prolongation to reduce the risk of torsades de pointes (TdP). Heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) is an indicator of risk, however it is imperfect, and subtle abnormalities of repolarization have been linked with arrhythmogenesis.

PURPOSE

Identification of electrocardiographic predictors of torsadogenic risk through the application of a novel T wave analysis tool.

METHODS

Among all patients admitted to Mayo Clinic for initiation of dofetilide or sotalol, we identified 13 cases who developed drug-induced TdP and 26 age and sex matched controls that did not develop TdP. The immediate pre-TdP ECG of those with TdP was compared to the last ECG performed prior to hospital discharge in controls using a novel T wave program that quantified subtle changes in T wave morphology.

RESULTS

The QTc and 12 T wave parameters successfully distinguished TdP cases from controls. The top performing parameters were the QTc in lead V3 (mean case vs control 480 vs 420 msec, p < 0.001, r = 0.72) and T wave right slope in lead I (mean case vs control -840.29 vs -1668.71 mV/s, p = 0.002, r = 0.45). The addition of T wave right slope to QTc improved prediction accuracy from 79 to 88 %.

CONCLUSION

Our data demonstrate that, in addition to QTc, the T wave right slope is correlated strongly with TdP risk. This suggests that a computer-based repolarization measurement tool that integrates additional data beyond the QTc may identify patients with the greatest torsadogenic potential.

Identification of High-Risk Aberrant Crypt Foci and Mucin-Depleted Foci in the Human Colon With Study of Colon Cancer Stem Cell Markers

BACKGROUND

During colonoscopic screening, only macroscopic lesions will be identified, and these are usually the result of multiple genetic abnormalities. Magnification endoscopic detection of aberrant crypt foci (ACF), long before they acquire complex genetic abnormalities, is promising. However, the features of high-risk ACF-like lesions need to be identified.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the present cross-sectional study, grossly visible normal mucosal flaps were shaved from 152 colectomies, including 96 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and 56 controls (22 control specimens with disease with malignant potential and 34 without malignant potential). Methylene and Alcian blue stains were performed directly on the unfixed mucosal flaps to identify ACF and mucin-depleted foci (MDF). Detailed topographic analyses, with immunohistochemical staining for β-catenin and cancer stem cell (CSC) markers (CD44, CD24, and CD166) were performed.

RESULTS

ACF, MDF, and β-catenin-accumulated crypts were detected more in specimens with adjacent CRC. The left colon had ACF with a larger diameter and greater crypt multiplicity, density, and gyriform pit pattern and were considered the high-risk ACF group. MDF, more commonly associated with dysplasia, is also a marker of possible carcinogenesis. The CD44 CSC marker was significantly upregulated in ACF specimens compared with normal controls. Our 3-tier ACF-only pit pattern classification system showed better linearity with mucosal dysplasia than did the 6-tier Kudo classification.

CONCLUSION

High-risk ACF, when detected during chromoendoscopic screening, should be followed up. CSCs might play an important role in pathogenesis. Larger studies and genotypic risk stratification for definite identification of high-risk ACF are needed.

[Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: Information transfer from the clinic to the doctor's office : Results of a questionnaire study and presentation of a software solution]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The adjuvant treatment of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is based on the individual risk profile (RP) and its sufficient transfer from the clinic to the doctor's office. The objectives of our study were to verify the importance and degree of transfer of RP and recommendation for risk-adapted adjuvant treatment (RAAT) in patients with NMIBC as well as to develop appropriate tools for this purpose, if necessary.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An email-based survey distributed to urologists in Brandenburg, Berlin, Bavaria and Lower Saxony explored the questions mentioned above. In addition, a tool for risk stratification and information transfer for patients with NMIBC was developed and validated.

RESULTS

From a total of 134 questionnaires analyzed, 55 were from clinic urologists (CUs) and 79 were from ambulant urologists (AUs). Although 9 out of 10 urologists considered the RP of importance, only 29 % of CUs and 24 % of AUs (p = 0.553) confirmed that the RP was always mentioned in medical reports. The recommendation for RAAT was confirmed from 62 % of CUs and 20 % of AUs (p < 0.001). A recommendation for RAAT in the medical report was requested by 86 % of AUs. The risk calculator presented here - to our knowledge the first with integration of the 2004 WHO grading - is delivered in all mathematically possible constellations a RP, according to guideline recommendations.

CONCLUSION

Urologists in the clinic and doctor's office both attach considerable importance to the determination and transfer of RP and the recommendation for RAAT. There was evidence to suggest an overestimation of the quality of medical reports by the CU. The risk calculator provides an easy and cost-neutral option to improve risk stratification and information transfer from the clinic to the doctor's office.

Non-invasive assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains a significant global public health burden despite advancements in prevention and therapeutic strategies. Common non-invasive imaging modalities, anatomic and functional, are available for the assessment of patients with stable chest pain. Exercise electrocardiography is a long-standing method for evaluation for CAD and remains the initial test for the majority of patients who can exercise adequately with a baseline interpretable electrocardiogram. The addition of cardiac imaging to exercise testing provides incremental benefit for accurate diagnosis for CAD and is particularly useful in patients who are unable to exercise adequately and/or have uninterpretable electrocardiograms. Radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging and echocardiography with exercise or pharmacological stress provide high sensitivity and specificity in the detection and further risk stratification of patients with CAD. Recently, coronary computed tomography angiography has demonstrated its growing role to rule out significant CAD given its high negative predictive value. Although less available, stress cardiac magnetic resonance provides a comprehensive assessment of cardiac structure and function and provides a high diagnostic accuracy in the detection of CAD. The utilization of non-invasive testing is complex due to various advantages and limitations, particularly in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain, where no single study is suitable for all patients. This review will describe currently available non-invasive modalities, along with current evidence-based guidelines and appropriate use criteria in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with suspected, stable CAD.

Nonsustained Ventricular Tachycardia in the Normal Heart: Risk Stratification and Management

Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) may trigger concern, particularly in patients with known congestive heart failure, structural heart disease, or prolonged QT interval. When NSVT occurs in patients with normal hearts, it usually has a benign prognosis. Therefore, establishing the presence or absence of structural or inherited heart disease is a critical step in each patient's evaluation. It is important to approach a wide-complex tachycardia in a systematic manner, to ensure correct diagnosis and treatment. When NSVT occurs in a patient with a normal heart, treatment is targeted toward symptoms and may consist of observation, medical therapy, or catheter ablation.

Complication avoidance with pre-operative screening: insights from the Seattle spine team

Complication rates for complex adult lumbar scoliosis surgery are unacceptably high. Standardized preoperative evaluation protocols have been shown to significantly reduce the likelihood of a spectrum of negative outcomes associated with complex adult lumbar scoliosis surgery. To increase patient safety and reduce complication risk, an entire medical and surgical team should work together to care for adult lumbar scoliosis patients. This article describes preoperative patient evaluation strategies with a particular focus on adult lumbar scoliosis surgery involving six or more levels of spinal fusion. Domains considered include recent preoperative evaluation literature, predictive risk modeling, the appropriate management of medical conditions, and the composition and activities of a multidisciplinary conference review team. An evidence-based comprehensive systematic preoperative surgical evaluation process is described.

Development and external validation of a faecal immunochemical test-based prediction model for colorectal cancer detection in symptomatic patients

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection in symptomatic patients based on available biomarkers may improve CRC diagnosis. Our aim was to develop, compare with the NICE referral criteria and externally validate a CRC prediction model, COLONPREDICT, based on clinical and laboratory variables.

METHODS

This prospective cross-sectional study included consecutive patients with gastrointestinal symptoms referred for colonoscopy between March 2012 and September 2013 in a derivation cohort and between March 2014 and March 2015 in a validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, we assessed symptoms and the NICE referral criteria, and determined levels of faecal haemoglobin and calprotectin, blood haemoglobin, and serum carcinoembryonic antigen before performing an anorectal examination and a colonoscopy. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model with diagnostic accuracy with CRC detection as the main outcome.

RESULTS

We included 1572 patients in the derivation cohort and 1481 in the validation cohorts, with a 13.6 % and 9.1 % CRC prevalence respectively. The final prediction model included 11 variables: age (years) (odds ratio [OR] 1.04, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.06), male gender (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.5-3.4), faecal haemoglobin ≥20 μg/g (OR 17.0, 95 % CI 10.0-28.6), blood haemoglobin <10 g/dL (OR 4.8, 95 % CI 2.2-10.3), blood haemoglobin 10-12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95 % CI 1.1-3.0), carcinoembryonic antigen ≥3 ng/mL (OR 4.5, 95 % CI 3.0-6.8), acetylsalicylic acid treatment (OR 0.4, 95 % CI 0.2-0.7), previous colonoscopy (OR 0.1, 95 % CI 0.06-0.2), rectal mass (OR 14.8, 95 % CI 5.3-41.0), benign anorectal lesion (OR 0.3, 95 % CI 0.2-0.4), rectal bleeding (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.4-3.4) and change in bowel habit (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.1-2.5). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.92 (95 % CI 0.91-0.94), higher than the NICE referral criteria (AUC 0.59, 95 % CI 0.55-0.63; p < 0.001). On the basis of the thresholds with 90 % (5.6) and 99 % (3.5) sensitivity, we divided the derivation cohort into three risk groups for CRC detection: high (30.9 % of the cohort, positive predictive value [PPV] 40.7 %, 95 % CI 36.7-45.9 %), intermediate (29.5 %, PPV 4.4 %, 95 % CI 2.8-6.8 %) and low (39.5 %, PPV 0.2 %, 95 % CI 0.0-1.1 %). The discriminatory ability was equivalent in the validation cohort (AUC 0.92, 95 % CI 0.90-0.94; p = 0.7).

CONCLUSIONS

COLONPREDICT is a highly accurate prediction model for CRC detection.

A Multicenter Prospective Validation Study for the Korean Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System in Patients with Thyroid Nodules

OBJECTIVE

To validate a new risk stratification system for thyroid nodules, the Korean Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (K-TIRADS), using a prospective design.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From June 2013 to May 2015, 902 thyroid nodules were enrolled from four institutions. The type and predictive value of ultrasonography (US) predictors were analyzed according to the combination of the solidity and echogenicity of nodules; in addition, we determined malignancy risk and diagnostic performance for each category of K-TIRADS, and compared the efficacy of fine-needle aspiration (FNA) with a three-tier risk categorization system published in 2011.

RESULTS

The malignancy risk was significantly higher in solid hypoechoic nodules, as compared to partially cystic or isohyperechoic nodules (each p < 0.001). The presence of any suspicious US features had a significantly higher malignancy risk (73.4%) in solid hypoechoic nodules than in partially cystic or isohyperechoic nodules (4.3-38.5%; p < 0.001). The calculated malignancy risk in K-TIRADS categories 5, 4, 3, and 2 nodules were 73.4, 19.0, 3.5, and 0.0%, respectively; and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy for malignancy were 95.5, 58.6, 44.5, 96.9, and 69.5%, respectively, in K-TIRADS categories 4 and 5. The efficacy of FNA for detecting malignancy based on K-TIRADS was increased from 18.6% (101/544) to 22.5% (101/449), as compared with the three-tier risk categorization system (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The proposed new risk stratification system based on solidity and echogenicity was useful for risk stratification of thyroid nodules and the decision for FNA. The malignancy risk of K-TIRADS was in agreement with the findings of a previous retrospective study.

Target fluorescence in-situ hybridization (Target FISH) for plasma cell enrichment in myeloma

BACKGROUND

Cytogenetic abnormalities are important prognostic markers in plasma cell myeloma (PCM) and detection is routinely performed by interphase fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) with a panel of probes after enrichment of the plasma cells in the bone marrow specimen. Cell sorting by immunomagnetic beads and concurrent labeling of the cytoplasmic immunoglobulin are the usual enrichment methods. We present an alternative method of plasma cell enrichment termed Target FISH, which is an automated system that combines the images of May-Grünwald- Giemsa (MGG) staining and FISH study on the same plasma cell for analysis.

RESULTS

Our experience of Target FISH on 40 PCM patients was described. Briefly, plasma cells were MGG stained, image captured, de-stained, FISH probe hybridized and finally relocated for simultaneous analysis of morphology and FISH signal pattern. The FISH probe panel was TP53/CEP17, t(4;14) IGH/FGFR3, t(14;16) IGH/MAF and CKS1B(1q21)/CDKN2C(P18). Gain of 1q21 was the most common abnormality detected in 18 patients (45 %), to be followed by t(4;14) IGH/FGFR3 detected in 11 patients (27.5 %). Of note, 10 patients showed coexistence of both t(4;14) and 1q21 gain. Two patients showed del(17p)/TP53, one in association with t(4;14) and 1q gain while the other was stand alone. None of this patient cohort showed t(14;16) IGH/MAF. Using the critical binomial function, the normal cutoff FISH positive value for del(17p)/TP53 was 3.4 %, t(4;14) IGH/FGFR3 was 6.8 %, t(14;16) IGH/MAF was 5.6 % and +1q21 was 5.7 %.

CONCLUSIONS

The equipment cost notwithstanding, when compared with cell sorting, the total reagent cost was around 10 % lower in Target FISH. The total processing time was longer for Target FISH but manual fluorescence microscopy was no longer necessary. The main advantage of Target FISH was the complete certainty that the cytogenetic abnormality was detected in the cells of interest, and hence a more stringent analytical cutoff value might be considered. Optimization of the cell collection and slide preparation process upfront was required to accrue adequate target cells on each slide for analysis. Our experience suggested that Target FISH was applicable as a routine method of plasma cell enrichment in clinical diagnostic laboratories.

New pattern-based personalized risk stratification system for endocervical adenocarcinoma with important clinical implications and surgical outcome

We present a recently introduced three tier pattern-based histopathologic system to stratify endocervical adenocarcinoma (EAC) that better correlates with lymph node (LN) metastases than FIGO staging alone, and has the advantage of safely predicting node-negative disease in a large proportion of EAC patients. The system consists of stratifying EAC into one of three patterns: pattern A tumors characterized by well-demarcated glands frequently forming clusters or groups with relative lobular architecture and lacking destructive stromal invasion or lymphovascular invasion (LVI), pattern B tumors demonstrating localized destructive invasion (small clusters or individual tumor cells within desmoplastic stroma often arising from pattern A glands), and pattern C tumors with diffusely infiltrative glands and associated desmoplastic response. Three hundred and fifty-two cases were included; mean follow-up 52.8 months. Seventy-three patients (21%) had pattern A tumors; all were stage I and there were no LN metastases or recurrences. Pattern B was seen in 90 tumors (26%); all were stage I and LVI was seen in 24 cases (26.6%). Nodal disease was found in only 4 (4.4%) pattern B tumors (one IA2, two IB1, one IB not further specified (NOS)), each of which showed LVI. Pattern C was found in 189 cases (54%), 117 had LVI (61.9%) and 17% were stage II or greater. Forty-five (23.8%) patients showed LN metastases (one IA1, 14 IB1, 5 IB2, 5 IB NOS, 11 II, 5 III and 4 IV) and recurrences were recorded in 41 (21.7%) patients. This new risk stratification system identifies a subset of stage I patients with essentially no risk of nodal disease, suggesting that patients with pattern A tumors can be spared lymphadenectomy. Patients with pattern B tumors rarely present with LN metastases, and sentinel LN examination could potentially identify these patients. Surgical treatment with nodal resection is justified in patients with pattern C tumors.

A prognostic model for advanced colorectal neoplasia recurrence

PURPOSE

Following colonoscopic polypectomy, US Multisociety Task Force (USMSTF) guidelines stratify patients based on risk of subsequent advanced neoplasia (AN) using number, size, and histology of resected polyps, but have only moderate sensitivity and specificity. We hypothesized that a state-of-the-art statistical prediction model might improve identification of patients at high risk of future AN and address these challenges.

METHODS

Data were pooled from seven prospective studies which had follow-up ascertainment of metachronous AN within 3-5 years of baseline polypectomy (combined n = 8,228). Pooled data were randomly split into training (n = 5,483) and validation (n = 2,745) sets. A prognostic model was developed using best practices. Two risk cut-points were identified in the training data which achieved a 10 percentage point improvement in sensitivity and specificity, respectively, over current USMSTF guidelines. Clinical benefit of USMSTF versus model-based risk stratification was then estimated using validation data.

RESULTS

The final model included polyp location, prior polyp history, patient age, and number, size and histology of resected polyps. The first risk cut-point improved sensitivity but with loss of specificity. The second risk cut-point improved specificity without loss of sensitivity (specificity 46.2 % model vs. 42.1 % guidelines, p < 0.001; sensitivity 75.8 % model vs. 74.0 % guidelines, p = 0.64). Estimated AUC was 65 % (95 % CI: 62-69 %).

CONCLUSION

This model-based approach allows flexibility in trading sensitivity and specificity, which can optimize colonoscopy over- versus underuse rates. Only modest improvements in prognostic power are possible using currently available clinical data. Research considering additional factors such as adenoma detection rate for risk prediction appears warranted.

Risk scores for outcome in bacterial meningitis: Systematic review and external validation study

OBJECTIVES

To perform an external validation study of risk scores, identified through a systematic review, predicting outcome in community-acquired bacterial meningitis.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published between January 1960 and August 2014. Performance was evaluated in 2108 episodes of adult community-acquired bacterial meningitis from two nationwide prospective cohort studies by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, calibration slope or Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the distribution of calculated risks.

FINDINGS

Nine risk scores were identified predicting death, neurological deficit or death, or unfavorable outcome at discharge in bacterial meningitis, pneumococcal meningitis and invasive meningococcal disease. Most studies had shortcomings in design, analyses, and reporting. Evaluation showed AUCs of 0.59 (0.57-0.61) and 0.74 (0.71-0.76) in bacterial meningitis, 0.67 (0.64-0.70) in pneumococcal meningitis, and 0.81 (0.73-0.90), 0.82 (0.74-0.91), 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.84 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.75-0.95), and 0.90 (0.83-0.98) in meningococcal meningitis. Calibration curves showed adequate agreement between predicted and observed outcomes for four scores, but statistical tests indicated poor calibration of all risk scores.

INTERPRETATION

One score could be recommended for the interpretation and design of bacterial meningitis studies. None of the existing scores performed well enough to recommend routine use in individual patient management.

Understanding clinical prediction models as 'innovations': a mixed methods study in UK family practice

BACKGROUND

Well-designed clinical prediction models (CPMs) often out-perform clinicians at estimating probabilities of clinical outcomes, though their adoption by family physicians is variable. How family physicians interact with CPMs is poorly understood, therefore a better understanding and framing within a context-sensitive theoretical framework may improve CPM development and implementation. The aim of this study was to investigate why family physicians do or do not use CPMs, interpreting these findings within a theoretical framework to provide recommendations for the development and implementation of future CPMs.

METHODS

Mixed methods study in North West England that comprised an online survey and focus groups.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty eight respondents completed the survey, which found the main perceived advantages to using CPMs were that they guided appropriate treatment (weighted rank [r] = 299; maximum r = 414 throughout), justified treatment decisions (r = 217), and incorporated a large body of evidence (r = 156). The most commonly reported barriers to using CPMs were lack of time (r = 163), irrelevance to some patients (r = 161), and poor integration with electronic health records (r = 147). Eighteen clinicians participated in two focus groups (i.e. nine in each), which revealed 13 interdependent themes affecting CPM use under three overarching domains: clinician factors, CPM factors and contextual factors. Themes were interdependent, indicating the tensions family physicians experience in providing evidence-based care for individual patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The survey and focus groups showed that CPMs were valued when they supported clinical decision making and were robust. Barriers to their use related to their being time-consuming, difficult to use and not always adding value. Therefore, to be successful, CPMs should offer a relative advantage to current working, be easy to implement, be supported by training, policy and guidelines, and fit within the organisational culture.

Introduction of a prognostic biomarker to strengthen risk stratification of acutely admitted patients: rationale and design of the TRIAGE III cluster randomized interventional trial

Background

Several biomarkers have shown to carry prognostic value beyond current triage algorithms and may aid in initial risk stratification of patients in the emergency department (ED). It has yet to be established if information provided by biomarkers can be used to prevent serious complications or deaths. Our aim is to determine whether measurement of the blood level of the biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) can enhance early risk stratification leading to reduced mortality, lower rate of complications, and improved patient flow in acutely admitted adult patients at the ED. The main hypothesis is that the availability of suPAR can reduce all-cause mortality, assessed at least 10 months after admission, by drawing attention towards patients with an unrecognized high risk, leading to improved diagnostics and treatment.

Methods

The study is designed as a cross-over cluster randomized interventional trial. SuPAR is measured within 2 h after admission and immediately reported to the treating physicians in the ED. All ED physicians are educated in the prognostic capabilities of suPAR prior to the inclusion period. The inclusion period began January 11^th 2016 and ends June 6^th 2016. The study aims to include 10.000 patients in both the interventional and control arm. The results will be presented in 2017.

Discussion

The present article aims to describe the design and rationale of the TRIAGE III study that will investigate whether the availability of prognostic information can improve outcome in acutely admitted patients. This might have an impact on health care organization and decision-making.

Trial registration

The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (ID NCT02643459, November 13, 2015) and at the Danish Data Protection agency (ID HGH-2015-042 I-Suite no. 04087).

Prediction of Prostate Cancer: External Validation of the ERSPC Risk Calculator in a Contemporary Dutch Clinical Cohort

BACKGROUND

The validity of prediction models needs external validation to assess their value beyond the original development setting.

OBJECTIVE

To report the diagnostic accuracy of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC)3 and RC4 in a contemporary Dutch clinical cohort.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We retrospectively identified all men who underwent prostate biopsy (PBx) in the Jeroen Bosch Hospital, The Netherlands, between 2007 and 2016. Patients were included if they met ERSPC RC requirements of age (50-80 yr), prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (0.4-50 ng/ml), and prostate volume (10-150ml). The probability of a positive biopsy for prostate cancer (PCa) and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7 and/or higher than T2b) were calculated and compared with PBx pathology results.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Evaluation was performed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness using calibration plots, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs), and decision curve analyses (DCAs), respectively.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 2270 PBx sessions were eligible for final analysis. Discriminative ability of RC3 (AUC) was 0.78 and 0.90 for any PCa and significant PCa, respectively. For RC4 the calculated AUCs were 0.62 (any PCa) and 0.76 (significant PCa). The calibration plots of RC3 showed good results for both any PCa risk and significant PCa risk. In the repeat PBx group, RC4 tended to underestimate outcomes for PCa and showed moderate calibration for significant PCa. DCA showed an overall net benefit compared with PSA and digital rectal examination (DRE) alone. Limitations of this study are its retrospective single-institution design, retrospectively assessed DRE outcomes, no time restrictions between the first and repeat biopsy sessions, and no anterior sampling in the repeat PBx protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

The ERSPC RCs performed well in a contemporary clinical setting. Most pronounced in the biopsy-naive group, both RCs should be favoured over a PSA plus DRE-based stratification in the decision whether or not to perform PBx.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We looked at the ability of the existing European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer risk calculator (RC), using different clinical data to predict the presence of prostate cancer in Dutch men. The RC performed well and should be favoured in the decision of whether or not to perform prostate biopsies over the conventional diagnostic pathway.

Prevalence of late potentials on signal-averaged ECG in patients with psychiatric disorders

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurs three times more often in psychiatric patients than in the general population. QRS fragmentation (QRSfr) and signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) are simple, inexpensive, readily available tools for detecting the presence of abnormal depolarization and late potentials (LPs) in these patients, a result of either the underlying disease or treatment.

METHODS

Frequency of LP detection by SAECG and QRSfr was studied in 52 psychiatric patients and compared with 30 healthy (without known structural heart disease or occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia) controls. Patients were then prospectively followed up and incidence of SCD was recorded.

RESULTS

LP prevalence was significantly higher in patients than in controls (16/52-31% vs 2/30-7%, p=0.012), while QRSfr was similar between these two groups (p=0.09). Of the LP presence criteria, the root mean square value at terminal 40msec of the QRS (RMS40) was significantly lower in patients (32μV, SD=19μV, vs 46μV, SD=32μV, p=0.015). Among patients, no differences were noted between the LP positive and negative groups regarding age, sex, number of medications, class of antipsychotics and defined daily doses. Mean follow-up was 46months (SD=11) and during it 3 patients suffered SCD. Although 2 SCD victims had both LPs and QRSfr concurrently present, neither of them, nor their simultaneous presence could definitely account for the events.

CONCLUSIONS

LP prevalence in psychiatric patients was significantly higher than in controls. SAECG performance was feasible in all cases and constitutes a readily available tool for assessing myocardial electrophysiological alterations in this patient group.

Carbohydrate-antigen-125 levels predict hospital stay duration and adverse events at long-term follow-up in Takotsubo cardiomyopathy

The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible role of carbohydrate-antigen(CA)-125 as prognostic marker at short- and long-term follow-up, in subjects with Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). Sixty-three consecutive subjects with TTC were enrolled in the study and followed for a median 139 days. Circulating levels of CA-125, NT-proBNP, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were evaluated at admission. Duration of hospital stay, incidence of death, re-hospitalization and recurrence of TTC during follow-up were recorded. The mean hospital stay was 8.3 days, adverse events occurred during follow up in 17 % of cases. CA-125 levels at admission are inversely related to LVEF (r -0.30, p < 0.05) and directly related to hospital stay (r 0.29, p < 0.05). CA-125 levels at admission are higher in subjects with adverse events at follow-up (88.9 ± 200.0 vs 20.9 ± 30.0 U/mL, p < 0.05). Rates of incidence of adverse events are proportionally increased with CA-125 tertiles (0, 6, 11 % respectively, p for trend <0.01), at survival analysis (Log Rank p < 0.05) and after correction for age, gender, LVEF and NT-proBNP levels in multivariable Cox analysis (p < 0.05). CA-125 levels <10 U/ml are predictors of adverse events at follow up with 91 % sensitivity, 52 % specificity, 29 % positive predictive power, and 96 % negative predictive power. Increased CA-125 admission levels are associated with a longer hospital stay, a lower LVEF, and a higher risk of adverse events during follow up. CA-125 might be useful for early risk stratification of subjects with TTC.

Prognostic significance of APACHE II score and plasma suPAR in Chinese patients with sepsis: a prospective observational study

Background

Timely risk stratification is the key strategy to improve prognosis of patients with sepsis. Previous study has proposed to develop a powerful risk assessment rule by the combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and plasma soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). That reaffirmation of suPAR as a prognostic marker in Chinese patients with severe sepsis is the aim of the study.

Methods

A total of 137 consecutive Chinese patients with sepsis were enrolled in a prospective study cohort. Demographic and clinical characteristics, conventional risk factors and important laboratory data were prospectively recorded. Sequential plasma suPAR concentrations were measured by an enzymeimmunoabsorbent assay on days 1, 3, and 7 after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis were used to examine the performance of suPAR in developing a rule for risk stratification.

Results

The results showed that plasma suPAR concentrations remained relatively stable within survivors and non-survivors during the first week of disease course. Regression analysis indicated that APACHE II ≥15 and suPAR ≥10.82 ng/mL were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. With the above cutoffs of APACHE II and suPAR, strata of disease severity were determined. The mortality of each stratum differed significantly from the others.

Conclusions

Combination of APACHE II score and suPAR may supply the powerful prognostic utility for the mortality of sepsis.

Improving rural and remote practitioners' knowledge of the diabetic foot: findings from an educational intervention

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine knowledge of national guidelines for diabetic foot assessment and risk stratification by rural and remote healthcare professionals in Western Australia and their implementation in practice. Assessment of diabetic foot knowledge, availability of equipment and delivery of foot care education in a primary healthcare setting at baseline enabled evaluation of the effectiveness of a diabetic foot education and training program for generalist healthcare professionals.

METHODS

This study employed a quasi-experimental pre-test/post-test study design. Healthcare practitioners' knowledge, attitudes and practice of diabetic foot assessment, diabetic foot risks, risk stratification, and use of the 2011 National Health and Medical Research Council Guidelines were investigated with an electronic pre-test survey(.) Healthcare professionals then undertook a 3-h education and training workshop before completing the electronic post-test knowledge, attitudes and practice survey. Comparison of pre-test/post-test survey findings was used to assess the change in knowledge, attitudes and intended practice due to the workshops.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty-six healthcare professionals from two rural and remote health regions of Western Australia participated in training workshops. Monofilaments and diabetes foot care education brochures, particularly brochures for Aboriginal people, were reported as not readily available in rural and remote health services. For most participants (58 %), their post-test knowledge score increased significantly from the pre-test score. Use of the Guidelines in clinical settings was low (19 %). The healthcare professionals' baseline diabetic foot knowledge was adequate to correctly identify the high risk category. However, stratification of the intermediate risk category was poor, even after training.

CONCLUSION

This study reports the first assessment of Western Australia's rural and remote health professionals' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the diabetic foot. It shows that without training, generalists' levels of knowledge concerning the diabetic foot was low and they were unlikely to assess foot risk. The findings from this study in a rural and remote setting cast doubt on the ability of generalist healthcare professionals to stratify risk appropriately, especially for those at intermediate risk, without clinical decision support tools.

[The wearable cardioverter/defibrillator : Temporary protection from sudden cardiac death]

In the majority of cases sudden cardiac death (SCD) is caused by ventricular tachyarrhythmia. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) represent an evidence-based and established method for prevention of SCD. For patients who do not fulfill the criteria for guideline-conform implantation of an ICD but still have an increased, e.g. transient risk for SCD, a wearable cardioverter-defibrillator (WCD) vest was developed to temporarily prevent SCD. Numerous studies have shown the safety and efficacy of the WCD, although there is still a gap in evidence concerning a reduction in overall mortality and improvement in prognosis. This article gives an overview on the currently available literature on WCD, the indications, potential risks and complications.

Patient-Specific Simulations Reveal Significant Differences in Mechanical Stimuli in Venous and Arterial Coronary Grafts

Mechanical stimuli are key to understanding disease progression and clinically observed differences in failure rates between arterial and venous grafts following coronary artery bypass graft surgery. We quantify biologically relevant mechanical stimuli, not available from standard imaging, in patient-specific simulations incorporating non-invasive clinical data. We couple CFD with closed-loop circulatory physiology models to quantify biologically relevant indices, including wall shear, oscillatory shear, and wall strain. We account for vessel-specific material properties in simulating vessel wall deformation. Wall shear was significantly lower (p = 0.014*) and atheroprone area significantly higher (p = 0.040*) in venous compared to arterial grafts. Wall strain in venous grafts was significantly lower (p = 0.003*) than in arterial grafts while no significant difference was observed in oscillatory shear index. Simulations demonstrate significant differences in mechanical stimuli acting on venous vs. arterial grafts, in line with clinically observed graft failure rates, offering a promising avenue for stratifying patients at risk for graft failure.

Risk Stratification Models: How Well do They Predict Adverse Outcomes in a Large Dutch Bariatric Cohort?

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models are useful tools for informing patients undergoing bariatric surgery about their risk for complications and correcting outcome reports. The aim of this study is to externally validate risk models assessing complications after laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) surgery.

METHODS

All 740 patients who underwent a primary LRYGB between December 2007 and July 2012 were included in the validation cohort. PubMed was systematically searched for risk prediction models. Eight risk models were selected for validation. We classified our complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Predefined criteria of a good model were a non-significant Hosmer and Lemeshow test, Nagelkerke R (2) ≥ 0.10, and c-statistic ≥0.7.

RESULTS

There were 85 (7.8 %) grade 1, 54 (7.3 %) grade 2, 5 (0.7 %) grade 3a, 14 (1.9 %) grade 3b, and 14 (1.9 %) grade 4a complications in our validation cohort. Only one model predicted adverse events satisfactorily. This model consisted of one patient-related factor (age) and four surgeon- or center related factors (conversion to open surgery, intraoperative events, the need for additional procedures during LRYGB and the learning curve of the center).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall majority of the included risk models are unsuitable for risk prediction. Only one model with an emphasis on surgeon- and center-related factors instead of patient-related factors predicted adverse outcome correctly in our external validation cohort. These findings support the establishment of specialty centers and warn benchmark data institutions not to correct bariatric outcome data by any other patient-related factor than age.

[Ischemic burden vs. coronary artery morphology : What is crucial for the indication of revascularization?]

Ischemic heart disease still represents the leading cause of death in the western world despite a decrease of mortality in the last decade. For the diagnostics of coronary artery morphology, invasive coronary angiography represents the gold standard. Nevertheless, in recent years the importance of functional diagnostics of the coronary arteries has increased and various imaging procedures for the measurement of fractional flow reserve (FFR) during coronary angiography were established and recommended for ischemia testing in the actual guidelines on myocardial revascularization.Imaging modalities for diagnostics of the functional relevance of coronary artery disease include stress echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), and positron emission tomography (PET). These procedures enable advanced risk stratification and therapy guiding in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease. In future algorithms, hybrid imaging may facilitate the determination of anatomical and functional aspects after only one investigation.In the present article, the role of ischemia testing is compared with morphological methods for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease, individual risk stratification, and therapy guiding.

The CHADS2 score predicts ischemic stroke in chronic heart failure patients without atrial fibrillation: comparison to other stroke risk scores

The CHADS₂ score is useful in stratifying the risk of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it remains unclear whether the CHADS₂ score could predict stroke or TIA in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients without AF. Recently, the new stroke risk score was proposed from 2 contemporary heart failure trials. We evaluated the prognostic power of the CHADS₂ score for stroke or TIA in CHF patients without AF in comparison to the "stroke risk score". We retrospectively studied 127 CHF patients [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <40 %] without AF, who had been enrolled in our previous prospective cohort study. The primary endpoint was the incidence of stroke or TIA. The mean baseline CHADS₂ score was 2.1 ± 1.0. During the follow-up period of 8.4 ± 5.1 years, stroke or TIA occurred in 21 of 127 patients. At multivariate Cox analysis, CHADS₂ score (C-index 0.794), but not "stroke risk score" (C-index 0.625), was significantly and independently associated with stroke or TIA. The incidence of stroke or TIA appeared to increase in relation to the CHADS₂ score [low (=1), 0 per 100 person-years; intermediate (=2), 1.6 per 100 person-years; high (≥3), 4.7 per 100 person-years; p = 0.04]. CHADS₂ score could stratify the risk of ischemic stroke in CHF patients with the absence of AF, with greater prognostic power than the "stroke risk score".

Unfavorable Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer and the Odds of Upgrading to Gleason 8 or Higher at Prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Some men with unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PC) have occult disease with a Gleason score of 8 or higher unrecognized on biopsy because of a sampling error that would change management to long from short course androgen-deprivation therapy in conjunction with radiotherapy. Identifying such men could improve outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 136 consecutive men with unfavorable intermediate-risk PC who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) between 2005 and 2008. We performed logistic regression analysis to identify clinical factors associated with upgrading to a Gleason score of 8 or higher at RP.

RESULTS

Fourteen percent of the men were upgraded to a Gleason score of 8 or higher PC at RP. Both increasing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.19, 3.30; P = .01) and greatest percentage core length (GPC) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 1.19; P < .01) were significantly associated with upgrading. A significant interaction between PSA and GPC was observed (P = .01). Specifically, men with low PSA (< 5 ng/mL) and those with larger GPC (> 70%) were significantly more likely to have a Gleason score of 8 or higher at RP compared to men with low PSA and GPC of 70% or less (35% vs. 0%; P = .01), whereas the same was not true among men with PSA levels ≥ 5 ng/mL (16% vs. 9%; P = .36).

CONCLUSION

In men with unfavorable intermediate-risk PC, a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging could be considered when the PSA is low and the percentage core length high to identify occult Gleason score 8 or higher disease and change management from short to long course androgen-deprivation therapy and radiotherapy.

Heart rate and left ventricular adverse remodelling after ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Discharge heart rate (HR) following ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a predictor of adverse left ventricular remodelling (LVR). However, the prognostic relevance of HR values in the earlier phase after revascularization is unknown. We aimed to investigate resting HR assessed at different time points during hospital stay following STEMI for the prediction of LVR.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study of 143 consecutive STEMI patients, HR was measured serially on admission (AHR), at day 1 (HRd1) and 2 (HRd2) following revascularization and finally at discharge (DHR). Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) scans were performed at baseline and 4months thereafter to evaluate LVR and major CMR determinants of LVR (infarct size, microvascular obstruction). LVR was defined as ≥15% increase of left ventricular end-diastolic volume.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients (20%) have developed LVR. HRd1 (80[72-88] vs. 71[62-79]bpm, p=0.003), HRd2 (74[64-83] vs. 67[59-78]bpm, p=0.04), DHR (74[62-81] vs. 64[58-73] bpm, p=0.008) and the mean HR of all measurements (76[68-82] vs. 67[60-77]bpm, p=0.004) were significantly higher in patients with LVR, whereas admission HR (75[68-85] vs. 70[60-82]bpm, p=0.12) did not differ significantly. The associations for all post-admission HRs remained significant after adjustment for clinical (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and C-reactive protein, left anterior descending artery as culprit) and CMR (infarct size, microvascular obstruction, ejection fraction) predictors of LVR. The predictive values of the post-admission HRs were equivalent (area under the curve differences: all p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

Besides DHR, resting HR values in the early stage following reperfusion are independent predictors of LVR after STEMI.

A novel cardiovascular risk stratification model incorporating ECG and heart rate variability for patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification models can be employed at the emergency department (ED) to evaluate patient prognosis and guide choice of treatment. We derived and validated a new cardiovascular risk stratification model comprising vital signs, heart rate variability (HRV) parameters, and demographic and electrocardiogram (ECG) variables.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center, observational cohort study of patients presenting to the ED with chest pain. All patients above 21 years of age and in sinus rhythm were eligible. ECGs were collected and evaluated for 12-lead ECG abnormalities. Routine monitoring ECG data were processed to obtain HRV parameters. Vital signs and demographic data were obtained from electronic medical records. Thirty-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were the primary endpoint, including death, acute myocardial infarction, and revascularization. Candidate variables were identified using univariate analysis; the model for the final risk score was derived by multivariable logistic regression. We compared the performance of the new model with that of the thrombolysis in myocardial infarct (TIMI) score using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 763 patients were included in this study; 254 (33 %) met the primary endpoint, the mean age was 60 (σ = 13) years, and the majority was male (65 %). Nineteen candidate predictors were entered into the multivariable model for backward variable elimination. The final model contained 10 clinical variables, including age, gender, heart rate, three HRV parameters (average R-to-R interval (RR), triangular interpolation of normal-to-normal (NN) intervals, and high-frequency power), and four 12-lead ECG variables (ST elevation, ST depression, Q wave, and QT prolongation). Our proposed model outperformed the TIMI score for prediction of MACE (area under the ROC curve 0.780 versus 0.653). At the cutoff score of 9 (range 0-37), our model had sensitivity of 0.709 (95 % CI 0.653, 0.765), specificity of 0.674 (95 % CI 0.633, 0.715), positive predictive value of 0.520 (95 % CI 0.468, 0.573), and negative predictive value of 0.823 (95 % CI 0.786, 0.859).

CONCLUSIONS

A non-invasive and objective ECG- and HRV-based risk stratification tool performed well against the TIMI score, but future research warrants use of an external validation cohort.