Machine learning from quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography predicts ischemia and impaired myocardial blood flow

Background

Atherosclerotic plaque characteristics influence the hemodynamic consequences of coronary lesions. This study sought to assess the performance of a machine learning (ML) score integrating coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based quantitative plaque features for the prediction of ischemia by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) and impaired myocardial blood flow (MBF) by [15O]H2O positron emission tomography (PET).

Methods

This post-hoc analysis of the PACIFIC (Prospective Comparison of Cardiac PET/CT, SPECT/CT Perfusion Imaging and CT Coronary Angiography With Invasive Coronary Angiography) trial included 208 patients with suspected coronary artery disease who underwent CCTA, [15O]H2O PET, and 3-vessel invasive FFR. Plaque quantification from CCTA was performed using semiautomated software. A boosted ensemble ML algorithm (XGBoost) trained on data from the NXT (Analysis of Coronary Blood Flow using CT Angiography: Next Steps) trial was used to develop a ML score for the prediction of per-vessel ischemia (invasive FFR ≤0.80). The performance of the ML score was evaluated in 551 vessels from the PACIFIC trial for external validation. Thereafter, we assessed the discriminative ability of the ML score for per-vessel impaired hyperemic MBF (≤2.30 mL/min/g).

Results

In total, 138 (25.0%) vessels had ischemia and 195 (35.4%) vessels had impaired hyperemic MBF. CCTA-derived quantitative percent diameter stenosis and low-density noncalcified plaque (LDNCP) volume were higher in ischemic vessels compared with non-ischemic vessels (60.8% vs. 19.9%; and 42.3 mm3 vs. 9.1 mm3; both p<0.001). The ML score demonstrated a significantly higher area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting ischemia (0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89–0.94) compared with visual stenosis grade (0.84, 95% CI 0.80–0.87; p<0.001). Overall, quantitative percent diameter stenosis and LDNCP volume had greatest feature importance for ML, followed by percent area stenosis, minimum luminal diameter, and contrast density drop (Figure 1). An individualized explanation of ML ischemia prediction is shown in Figure 2. When applied for impaired MBF discrimination, the ML score exhibited an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.85) and was superior to visual stenosis grade (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72–0.80; p=0.03).

Conclusions

An externally validated ML score integrating CCTA-based quantitative plaque features accurately predicts FFR-defined ischemia and abnormal MBF by PET, outperforming standard visual CCTA interpretation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, United States Performance of the ML scoreIndividual explanation of ML prediction

Pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation, low-attenuation plaque burden and 5-year risk of myocardial infarction

Introduction

Pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation has emerged as a surrogate marker of pericoronary inflammation. To date, no studies have compared the impact of pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation and quantitative plaque burden on cardiac outcomes.

Purpose

We aimed to establish the relative merits of these approaches to risk prediction and hypothesised that the combination of PCAT attenuation and quantitative plaque burden measures could provide additive and improved prediction of myocardial infarction in patients with stable chest pain.

Methods

In a post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial, we investigated the association between the future risk of fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction and PCAT attenuation measured from CT coronary angiography using multivariable Cox regression models including plaque burden, obstructive coronary disease and cardiac risk score (incorporating age, sex, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and family history of cardiovascular disease).

Results

In 1697 evaluable participants (mean age 58±10 years), there were 37 myocardial infarctions after a median follow-up of 4.7 [interquartile interval, 4.0–5.7] years. Median low-attenuation plaque burden was 4.20 [0–6.86] % and mean PCAT −76±8 Hounsfield units (HU).

PCAT attenuation of the right coronary artery (RCA) was predictive of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55, 95% CI 1.08–2.22; p=0.017, per 1 standard deviation increment) with an optimum threshold of −70.5 HU [Hazards ratio (HR) 2.45, 95% CI 1.2–4.9; p=0.01]. Univariable analysis also identified the burden of non-calcified, low-attenuation and calcified plaque as well as Agatston coronary calcium score, presence of obstructive coronary artery disease and cardiovascular risk score were predictors of myocardial infarction (Figure 1). In multivariable analysis, only the low-attenuation plaque burden (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.81, p=0.011, per doubling) and PCAT-RCA (HR 1.47 95%1.02 to 2.13, p=0.040, per standard deviation increment) remained predictors of myocardial infarction (Figure 1).

In multivariable analysis, adding PCAT-RCA ≥-70.5 HU to low-attenuation plaque burden >4% (optimum threshold for future myocardial infarction; HR = 4.87, 95% CI 2.03–11.78; p<0.0001) led to improved prediction of future myocardial infarction (HR 11.7, 95% CI 3.3–40.9; p<0.0001); Figure 2. In ROC analysis, integration of PCAT-RCA attenuation and LAP burden, increased the prediction for myocardial infarction compared to LAP alone (ΔAUC=0.04; p=0.01).

Conclusion

CT coronary angiography defined PCAT attenuation and low-attenuation plaque have marked and additive predictive value for the risk of fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, British Heart Foundation, National Institute of Health/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grant

Deep learning-based plaque quantification from coronary computed tomography angiography: external validation and comparison with intravascular ultrasound

Background

Atherosclerotic plaque quantification from coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) enables accurate assessment of coronary artery disease burden, progression, and prognosis. However, quantitative plaque analysis is time-consuming and requires high expertise. We sought to develop and externally validate an artificial intelligence (AI)-based deep learning (DL) approach for CTA-derived measures of plaque volume and stenosis severity. We compared the performance of DL to expert readers and the gold standard of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS).

Methods

This was a multicenter study of patients undergoing coronary CTA at 11 sites, with software-based quantitative plaque measurements performed at a per-lesion level by expert readers. AI-based plaque analysis was performed by a DL novel convolutional neural network which automatically segmented the coronary artery wall, lumen, and plaque for the computation of plaque volume and stenosis severity. Using expert measurements as ground truth, the DL algorithm was trained on 887 patients (4,686 lesions). Thereafter, the algorithm was applied to an independent test set of 221 patients (1,234 lesions), which included an external validation cohort of 171 patients from the SCOT-HEART (Scottish Computed Tomography of the Heart) trial as well as 50 patients who underwent IVUS within one month of CTA. We report the performance of AI-based plaque analysis in the independent test set.

Results

Within the external validation cohort, there was excellent agreement between DL and expert reader measurements of total plaque volume (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] 0.876), noncalcified plaque volume (ICC 0.869), and percent diameter stenosis (ICC 0.850; all p<0.001). When compared with IVUS, there was excellent agreement for DL total plaque volume (ICC 0.945), total plaque burden (ICC 0.853), minimal luminal area (ICC 0.864), and percent area stenosis (ICC 0.805; all p<0.001); with strong correlation between DL and IVUS for total plaque volume (r=0.915; p<0.001; Figure). The average DL plaque analysis time was 20 seconds per patient, compared with 25–30 minutes taken by experts.

Conclusions

AI-based plaque quantification from coronary CTA using an externally validated DL approach enables rapid measurements of plaque volume and stenosis severity in close agreement with expert readers and IVUS.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, United States

Naproxen treatment inhibits articular cartilage loss in a rat model of osteoarthritis

The effects of naproxen, a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), on articular cartilage degeneration in female Sprague-Dawley rats was examined. Osteoarthritis (OA) was induced by destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM) in each knee. Rats were treated with acetaminophen (60 mg/kg), naproxen (8 mg/kg), or 1% carboxymethylcellulose (placebo) by oral gavage twice daily for 3 weeks, beginning 2 weeks after surgery. OA severity was assessed by histological Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) scoring and by measuring proximal tibia cartilage depth using contrast enhanced µCT (n = 6 per group) in specimens collected at 2, 5, and 7 weeks after surgery as well as on pristine knees. Medial cartilage OARSI scores from the DMM knees of naproxen-treated rats were statistically lower (i.e., better) than the medial cartilage OARSI scores from the DMM knees of placebo-treated rats at 5-weeks (8.7 ± 3.6 vs. 13.2 ± 2.4, p = 0.025) and 7-weeks (9.5 ± 1.2 vs. 12.5 ± 2.5, p = 0.024) after surgery. At 5 weeks after DMM surgery, medial articular cartilage depth in the proximal tibia specimens was significantly greater in the naproxen (1.78 ± 0.26 mm, p = 0.005) and acetaminophen (1.94 ± 0.12 mm, p < 0.001) treated rats as compared with placebo-treated rats (1.34 ± 0.24 mm). However, at 7 weeks (2 weeks after drug withdrawal), medial articular cartilage depth for acetaminophen-treated rats (1.36 ± 0.29 mm) was significantly reduced compared with specimens from the naproxen-treated rats (1.88 ± 0.14 mm; p = 0.004). The results indicate that naproxen treatment reduced articular cartilage degradation in the rat DMM model during and after naproxen treatment.

Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one's own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one's personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020.

SETTING

The COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner.

PARTICIPANTS

All adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing.

RESULTS

28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.

High levels of truncated RHAMM cooperate with dysfunctional p53 to accelerate the progression of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer has the lowest survival rate out of all types of cancer. Pancreatic cancer patients are often diagnosed at advanced stages, hence an urgent need for a better therapeutic development of this devastating disease. Receptor for hyaluronan-mediated motility (RHAMM), not expressed in adult normal pancreas, has been suggested as a prognostic factor and a potential therapeutic target for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET). In this study, we initially sought to determine whether genetic deletion of RHAMM would slow down pancreatic cancer progression using Rhamm^-/- mice. However, we found that Rhamm^-/- mice expressed a truncated HMMR^Δexon8-16 protein at higher abundance levels than wild-type RHAMM. While HMMR^Δexon8-16 did not enable malignant progression of pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia in p48-Cre; LSL-KRAS^G12D mice, it accelerated the formation of invasive PDAC and shortened the survival of p48-Cre; LSL-KRAS^G12D mice with heterozygous p53 knockout. Kras^G12D PDAC mice with homozygous p53 knockout mice died around 10 weeks, and the effect of HMMR^Δexon8-16 was not apparent in these short lifespan mice. In addition, HMMR^Δexon8-16 shortened the survival of PNET-bearing RIP-Tag mice, which had inactivated p53. In our analysis of TCGA dataset, pancreatic cancer patients with mutant TP53 or loss of one copy of TP53 had higher RHAMM expression, which, combined, predicted worse outcomes. Taken together, by collaborating with dysfunctional p53, high levels of HMMR^Δexon8-16 , which lacks the centrosome targeting domain and degrons for interaction with the Anaphase-Promoting Complex (APC), accelerated pancreatic cancer progression.

The risk of anxiety symptoms in young adult offspring of parents with mental health problems: Findings from the raine study

Introduction

Previous research has suggested that offspring of parents with mental health problems, including depression and anxiety, are at an increased risk of developing anxiety disorders. Few studies have investigated this relationship in young adults.

Objectives

To investigate the risk of anxiety symptoms in young adult offspring of parents with mental health problems

Methods

We used data from the 1989-1991 cohort of the Western Australian Pregnancy (Raine) Study, which is a multi-generational birth cohort study following mothers and their offspring from pregnancy to 28 years of age. The Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS) was used to assess maternal anxiety and depression whereas a self-reported questionnaire was used to assess paternal emotional problems. Anxiety symptoms among offspring at age 20 were measured by using the short form of the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS 21). A multivariable negative binomial regression model was used to quantify the associations.

Results

After adjustment, maternal anxiety [RR 1.60 (95% CI 1.11-2.32)] and paternal emotional problems [RR 1.32 (95%CI 1.03-1.68)] were associated with an increased risk of anxiety in offspring at age 20 years. Conversely, maternal depressive symptoms [RR 1.04 (95%CI 0.84-1.32)] were not associated with an increased risk of anxiety in offspring.

Conclusions

The present study suggests that maternal anxiety and paternal emotional problems were associated with an increased risk of anxiety in young adult offspring. However, maternal depressive symptoms were not associated with an increased risk of anxiety in the offspring. The findings suggest the potential for targeted screening and intervention of anxiety problems in the offspring.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Toxoplasma gondii, Herpesviridae and long-term risk of transition to first-episode psychosis in an ultra high-risk sample

BACKGROUND

Ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria were introduced to identify people at imminent risk of developing psychosis. To improve prognostic accuracy, additional clinical and biological risk factors have been researched. Associations between psychotic disorders and infections with Toxoplasma gondii and Herpesviridae have been found. It is unknown if exposure to those pathogens increases the risk of transition to psychosis in UHR cohorts.

METHODS

We conducted a long-term follow-up of 96 people meeting UHR criteria, previously seen at the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) clinic, a specialized service in Melbourne, Australia. Transition to psychosis was assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of the At-Risk Mental State (CAARMS) and state public mental health records. The relationship between IgG antibodies to Herpesviridae (HSV-1, HSV-2, CMV, EBV, VZV) and Toxoplasma gondii and risk for transition was examined with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up duration was 6.46 (±3.65) years. Participants who transitioned to psychosis (n = 14) had significantly higher antibody titers for Toxoplasma gondii compared to those who did not develop psychosis (p = 0.03). After adjusting for age, gender and year of baseline assessment, seropositivity for Toxoplasma gondii was associated with a 3.6-fold increase in transition hazard in multivariate Cox regression models (HR = 3.6; p = 0.036). No significant association was found between serostatus for Herpesviridae and risk of transition.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to Toxoplasma gondii may contribute to the manifestation of positive psychotic symptoms and increase the risk of transitioning to psychosis in UHR individuals.

A systematic review of dermatologic manifestations among adult patients with COVID-19 diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Infection with COVID-19 is characterized by respiratory, gastrointestinal and neurologic symptoms. However, limited evidence exists of the involvement of the integumentary system among COVID-19 patients and evidence suggests that these symptoms may even be the first presenting sign.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically evaluate the literature published on dermatologic signs of COVID-19 in order to educate doctors about the dermatologic signs of COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

Lit COVID, World Health Organization COVID-19 database and PubMed were searched using terminology to identify adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection and dermatologic manifestations of disease. The last search was completed on 13 July 2020.

RESULTS

There were 802 reports found. After exclusion, 20 articles were found with 347 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection. Within these articles, 27 different skin signs were reported.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of this review include the recency of COVID-19 infection; so, there are limited published reports and that many reports are not by dermatologists, and so, the cutaneous signs may be misdiagnosed or misdescribed.

CONCLUSION

Dermatologic manifestations of COVID-19 may be the first presenting sign of infection; so, dermatologists and doctors examining the skin should be aware of the virus's influence on the integumentary system in order to promptly diagnose and treat the infected patients.

OP0133 THE PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF RETINAL TOXICITY ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-TERM HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE USE

Background:

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is commonly used for the treatment of various autoimmune diseases. The medication is generally well-tolerated. However, long-term use after 5 years may increase the risk of retinopathy. One study in 2014 has demonstrated the risk can be as high as 7.5%. Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) has become a major modality in screening retinopathy.

Objectives:

To evaluate the prevalence of retinal toxicity among patients using hydroxychloroquine and to determine various risk factors associated with hydroxychloroquine-associated retinal toxicity.

Methods:

We performed a retrospective chart review on a cohort of adult patients with long-term use (≥ 5 years cumulative) of HCQ between January 1st, 2011 to December 31st, 2018 from the Kaiser Permanente San Bernardino County and Riverside medical center areas in Southern California, USA. Patients were excluded if they had previously been diagnosed with retinopathy prior to hydroxychloroquine use, were deceased, or had incomplete OCT exam. Our primary endpoint was the prevalence of patients who developed retinal toxicity detected by OCT, and later confirmed by retinal specialist. Potential risk factors (age, duration of therapy, daily consumption per actual body weight, cumulative dose, confounding diseases and medication) for developing retinopathy were also evaluated. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine risk factors associated with retinal toxicity.

Results:

Among 676 patients exposed to more than 5 years of HCQ, the overall prevalence of retinal toxicity was 6.8%, and ranged from 2.5% to 22.2% depending on the age, weight-based dosing, duration of use and cumulative dose. Duration of therapy for 10 years or more increased risk of retinopathy by approximately 5 to 19 folds. Similarly, weight-based dose of 7 mg/kg/day or greater was assciated with increased risk of retinopathy by approximately 5 times. Patients with cumulative dose of 2000 grams or more had greater than 15 times higher risk of developing retinopathy. Duration of use for10 years or more (odd ratio 4.32, 95% CI 1.99 – 12.49), age (odd ratio 1.04; 95% CI 1.01 - 1.08), cumulative dose of more than 1500 g (odd ratio 7.4; 95% CI 1.40 – 39.04) and atherosclerosis of the aorta (odd ratio 2.59; 95% CI, 1.24 – 5.41) correlated with higher risk of retinal toxicity.

Conclusion:

The overall prevalence of retinopathy was 6.8%. Regular OCT screening, especially in patients with hydroxychloroquine use for more than 10 years, daily intake > 7 mg/kg, or cumulative dose > 1500 grams is important in detecting hydroxychloroquine-associated retinal toxicity

References:

[1]Hobbs HE. Sorsby A, & Freedman A. Retinopathy Following Chloroquine Therapy. The Lancet. 1959; 2(7101): 478-480.

[2]Levy, G. D., Munz, S. J., Paschal, J., Cohen, H. B., Pince, K. J., & Peterson, T. Incidence of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy in 1,207 patients in a large multicenter outpatient practice. Arthritis & Rheumatism: 1997; 40(8): 1482-1486.

[3]Ding, H. J., Denniston, A. K., Rao, V. K., & Gordon, C. Hydroxychloroquine-related retinal toxicity. Rheumatology. 2016; 55(6): 957-967.

[4]Stelton, C. R., Connors, D. B., Walia, S. S., & Walia, H. S. Hydrochloroquine retinopathy: characteristic presentation with review of screening. Clinical rheumatology. 2013; 32(6): 895-898.

[5]Marmor, M. F., Kellner, U., Lai, T. Y., Melles, R. B., & Mieler, W. F. Recommendations on screening for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine retinopathy (2016 revision). Ophthalmology. 2016; 123(6): 1386-1394.

[6]Melles, R. B., & Marmor, M. F. The risk of toxic retinopathy in patients on long-term hydroxychloroquine therapy. JAMA ophthalmology. 2014; 132(12): 1453-1460.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

The risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in the adolescent offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive symptoms. Findings from the raine study

Introduction

While there exist some studies that explored the association between maternal anxiety and depressive symptoms and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in early and late childhood, studies exploring the risk in late adolescence are however lacking.

Objectives

This is the first study that aimed to investigate the association between maternal anxiety, depressive, as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, and the risk of ADHD symptoms in late adolescence.

Methods

We used data from the Raine Study, a birth cohort in Western Australia. The Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS) was used to assess maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms when the child was aged 10. Whereas, the DSM-oriented scales of the child behavior checklist (CBCL) was used to assess ADHD symptoms offspring in adolescents aged 17. Log-binomial regression model was used to explore the associations.

Results

After adjusting for relevant covariates, we found an increased risk of ADHD symptoms in the adolescent children of mothers with anxiety [RR 2.84 (95%CI 1.18-6.83)] as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms [RR 5.60 (95%CI 3.02-10.37)]. No association was seen with maternal depressive symptoms.

Conclusions

This study suggested that adolescent offspring of mothers with anxiety as well as comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms had an increased risk of ADHD symptoms. Early detection and management for ADHD symptoms in children of mothers with anxiety and comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms are needed.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Antibiotics Do Not Reduce Length of Hospital Stay for Uncomplicated Diverticulitis in a Pragmatic Double-Blind Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antibiotic treatment is the standard care for patients with uncomplicated acute diverticulitis. However, this practice is based on low-level evidence and has been challenged by findings from 2 randomized trials, which did not include a placebo group. We investigated the non-inferiority of placebo vs antibiotic treatment for the management of uncomplicated acute diverticulitis.

METHODS

In the selective treatment with antibiotics for non-complicated diverticulitis study, 180 patients hospitalized for uncomplicated acute diverticulitis (determined by computed tomography, Hinchey 1a grade) from New Zealand and Australia were randomly assigned to groups given antibiotics (n = 85) or placebo (n = 95) for 7 days. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and answers to questionnaires completed every 12 hrs for the first 48 hrs and then daily until hospital discharge. The primary endpoint was length of hospital stay; secondary endpoints included occurrence of adverse events, readmission to the hospital, procedural intervention, change in serum markers of inflammation, and patient-reported pain scores at 12 and 24 hrs.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in median time of hospital stay between the antibiotic group (40.0 hrs; 95% CI, 24.4-57.6 hrs) and the placebo group (45.8 hrs; 95% CI, 26.5-60.2 hrs) (P = .2). There were no significant differences between groups in adverse events (12% for both groups; P = 1.0), readmission to the hospital within 1 week (1% for the placebo group vs 6% for the antibiotic group; P = .1), and readmission to the hospital within 30 days (11% for the placebo group vs 6% for the antibiotic group; P = .3).

CONCLUSIONS

Foregoing antibiotic treatment did not prolong length of hospital admission. This result provides strong evidence for omission of antibiotics for selected patients with uncomplicated acute diverticulitis.

ACTRN

12615000249550.

Machine intelligence identifies soluble TNFa as a therapeutic target for spinal cord injury

Traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) produces a complex syndrome that is expressed across multiple endpoints ranging from molecular and cellular changes to functional behavioral deficits. Effective therapeutic strategies for CNS injury are therefore likely to manifest multi-factorial effects across a broad range of biological and functional outcome measures. Thus, multivariate analytic approaches are needed to capture the linkage between biological and neurobehavioral outcomes. Injury-induced neuroinflammation (NI) presents a particularly challenging therapeutic target, since NI is involved in both degeneration and repair. Here, we used big-data integration and large-scale analytics to examine a large dataset of preclinical efficacy tests combining five different blinded, fully counter-balanced treatment trials for different acute anti-inflammatory treatments for cervical spinal cord injury in rats. Multi-dimensional discovery, using topological data analysis (TDA) and principal components analysis (PCA) revealed that only one showed consistent multidimensional syndromic benefit: intrathecal application of recombinant soluble TNFα receptor 1 (sTNFR1), which showed an inverse-U dose response efficacy. Using the optimal acute dose, we showed that clinically-relevant 90 min delayed treatment profoundly affected multiple biological indices of NI in the first 48 h after injury, including reduction in pro-inflammatory cytokines and gene expression of a coherent complex of acute inflammatory mediators and receptors. Further, a 90 min delayed bolus dose of sTNFR1 reduced the expression of NI markers in the chronic perilesional spinal cord, and consistently improved neurological function over 6 weeks post SCI. These results provide validation of a novel strategy for precision preclinical drug discovery that is likely to improve translation in the difficult landscape of CNS trauma, and confirm the importance of TNFα signaling as a therapeutic target.