Understanding the Effects of China's Agro-Environmental Policies on Rural Households' Labor and Land Allocation with a Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model

Understanding household labor and land allocation decisions under agro-environmental policies is challenging due to complex human-environment interactions. Here, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model based on spatial and socioeconomic data to simulate households' land and labor allocation decisions and investigate the impacts of two forest restoration and conservation programs and one agricultural subsidy program in rural China. Simulation outputs reveal that the forest restoration program accelerates labor out-migration and cropland shrink, while the forest conservation program promotes livelihood diversification via increasing non-farm employment. Meanwhile, the agricultural subsidy program keeps labor for cultivation on land parcels with good quality, but appears less effective for preventing marginal croplands from being abandoned. The policy effects on labor allocation substantially differ between rules based on bounded rational and empirical knowledge of defining household decisions, particularly on sending labor out-migrants and engaging in local off-farm jobs. Land use patterns show that the extent to which households pursue economic benefits through shrinking cultivated land is generally greater under bounded rationality than empirical knowledge. Findings demonstrate nonlinear social-ecological impacts of the agro-environmental policies through time, which can deviate from expectations due to complex interplays between households and land. This study also suggests that the spatial agent-based model can represent adaptive decision-making and interactions of human agents and their interactions in dynamic social and physical environments.

[Efficacy of endovascular treatment of distal aortic dissection involving abdominal visceral segment with bare-metal stents related technique]

Objective: To investigate the effect of bare-metal stent related technique on distal aortic dissection involving abdominal visceral segment. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data of 33 patients with distal aortic dissection involved abdominal visceral segment, who hospitalized in the Vascular Surgery Department of Shanghai Changhai Hospital from July 2012 to September 2019. The effect of the treatment was evaluated according to the clinical and preoperative, intraoperative and follow-up imaging data derived from (aorta computed tomography angiography (CTA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA)) as well as the changes of the maximal diameter of the aorta and the thrombosis of the false lumen of the dissection. The criteria were as follows: the maximum diameter change of aortic dissection<5 mm was defined as stable; the maximum diameter decrease of aortic dissection≥5 mm was defined as effective reduction; the maximum diameter increase of aortic dissection≥5 mm was defined as expansion; the definition of diameter change of false lumen was the same as above. The hospital complications, clinical symptoms and survival were recorded. Results: There were 28 male patients in this cohort, the mean age was (57.6±4.9) years old. Twenty-one patients were treated with bare-metal stent and coils technique, of which 8 patients were jointly treated with stent grafts. Twelve patients were treated with multi-layer bare-metal stent technique, of which 4 patients were jointly treated with stent grafts. Intraoperative DSA image results showed that the visceral arteries were patent during the treatment, and the blood flow velocity of the false lumen was reduced in all 33 patients. There were no adverse events such as distal outflow tract embolism and coil displacement during the operation. During the period of hospitalization, one patient developed intimal rupture of subrenal abdominal aortic dissection on the fourth day after operation and emergency endovascular graft exclusion was performed for abdominal aortic dissection, and the patient recovered well from the emergency operation. The follow-up time was (16.7±14.0) months. One patient died 1 year after surgery due to non-disease-related factors. Follow-up CTA imaging results showed that the maximum diameter of the aorta in abdominal visceral segment tended to be smaller ((39.1±13.4) mm vs. (41.3±11.9) mm, P=0.469), and the maximum diameter of the false lumen was significantly reduced ((16.2±12.9) mm vs. (23.5±10.7) mm, P=0.014). The maximum diameter of the aortic dissection was reduced in 12 cases, stable in 19 cases, expanded in 2 cases. The maximum diameter of the false lumen was effectively reduced in 22 cases, stable in 10 cases, and expanded in 1 case. Four patients developed small endoleak in the false lumen, one of them was nearby the renal artery stent, and the remaining patients experienced complete thrombosis of the false lumen. Conclusions: Endovascular treatment of distal aortic dissection involving abdominal visceral segment with bare-metal stents related technique could promote the shrink and the thrombosis of the false lumen, and slow down the blood flow from the tear into the false lumen in the setting of patency of visceral arteries.

Adjuvant T-DM1 versus trastuzumab in patients with residual invasive disease after neoadjuvant therapy for HER2-positive breast cancer: subgroup analyses from KATHERINE

BACKGROUND

In the KATHERINE study (NCT01772472), patients with residual invasive early breast cancer (EBC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) plus human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-targeted therapy had a 50% reduction in risk of recurrence or death with adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) versus trastuzumab. Here, we present additional exploratory safety and efficacy analyses.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

KATHERINE enrolled HER2-positive EBC patients with residual invasive disease in the breast/axilla at surgery after NACT containing a taxane (± anthracycline, ± platinum) and trastuzumab (± pertuzumab). Patients were randomized to adjuvant T-DM1 (n = 743) or trastuzumab (n = 743) for 14 cycles. The primary endpoint was invasive disease-free survival (IDFS).

RESULTS

The incidence of peripheral neuropathy (PN) was similar regardless of neoadjuvant taxane type. Irrespective of treatment arm, baseline PN was associated with longer PN duration (median, 105-109 days longer) and lower resolution rate (∼65% versus ∼82%). Prior platinum therapy was associated with more grade 3-4 thrombocytopenia in the T-DM1 arm (13.5% versus 3.8%), but there was no grade ≥3 hemorrhage in these patients. Risk of recurrence or death was decreased with T-DM1 versus trastuzumab in patients who received anthracycline-based NACT [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38-0.67], non-anthracycline-based NACT (HR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.22-0.82), presented with cT1, cN0 tumors (0 versus 6 IDFS events), or had particularly high-risk tumors (HRs ranged from 0.43 to 0.72). The central nervous system (CNS) was more often the site of first recurrence in the T-DM1 arm (5.9% versus 4.3%), but T-DM1 was not associated with a difference in overall risk of CNS recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

T-DM1 provides clinical benefit across patient subgroups, including small tumors and particularly high-risk tumors and does not increase the overall risk of CNS recurrence. NACT type had a minimal impact on safety.

[The Autism Spectrum Disorder Cohort-the sub-cohort of China National Birth Cohort]

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD), a representative disease of children's neurodevelopmental disorders, brings huge pressure and financial burden to families and society. It is of great significance to explore its etiology and pathogenesis. Therefore, we established an ASD Cohort based on the existing China National Birth Cohort (CNBC), which applied parallel design to recruit and follow up families who achieved pregnancy after receiving assisted reproductive technologies (ART) and families with spontaneous conception. The main aims of this study are to compare the incidence of ASD among children born after ART with those born under spontaneous pregnancy, and to evaluate the impact of ART on the neurobehavioral development of offspring. Additionally, with a variety of clinical and behavioral related information collected during pregnancy and at early life of offspring, we are able to investigate the risk factors associated with ASD comprehensively. This article briefly introduces the objectives, contents, preliminary progress, strength and limitations, as well as further prospects of the ASD cohort study, mainly focusing on the overall design and current progress.

Tracking Major Sources of Water Contamination Using Machine Learning

Current microbial source tracking techniques that rely on grab samples analyzed by individual endpoint assays are inadequate to explain microbial sources across space and time. Modeling and predicting host sources of microbial contamination could add a useful tool for watershed management. In this study, we tested and evaluated machine learning models to predict the major sources of microbial contamination in a watershed. We examined the relationship between microbial sources, land cover, weather, and hydrologic variables in a watershed in Northern California, United States. Six models, including K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Naïve Bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), simple neural network (NN), Random Forest, and XGBoost, were built to predict major microbial sources using land cover, weather and hydrologic variables. The results showed that these models successfully predicted microbial sources classified into two categories (human and non-human), with the average accuracy ranging from 69% (Naïve Bayes) to 88% (XGBoost). The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) illustrated XGBoost had the best performance (average AUC = 0.88), followed by Random Forest (average AUC = 0.84), and KNN (average AUC = 0.74). The importance index obtained from Random Forest indicated that precipitation and temperature were the two most important factors to predict the dominant microbial source. These results suggest that machine learning models, particularly XGBoost, can predict the dominant sources of microbial contamination based on the relationship of microbial contaminants with daily weather and land cover, providing a powerful tool to understand microbial sources in water.

Role and mechanism of action of butyrate in atherosclerotic diseases: a review

Butyrate is a bioactive molecule produced by the intestinal flora and plays a major role in a variety of inflammatory diseases. Increasing evidence indicates that butyrate can regulate the occurrence and development of atherosclerosis (AS). Coincidentally, it reduces hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia, which are major risk factors of AS. However, the mechanism by which butyrate regulates the development of AS remains unclear. In this article, we review the effect of butyrate treatment on AS with a focus on the mechanisms of butyrate-mediated modulation of several atherosclerotic processes. These include the improvement of monocyte-endothelial interactions, macrophage lipid accumulation, smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration, and lymphocyte differentiation and function. The existing research indicates that butyrate treatment may be a potentially effective strategy for the prevention of AS. Identity and underlying mechanisms of the molecular pathways of these interactions should be explored in the future to counter AS effectively.

Effects of payments for ecosystem services programs in China on rural household labor allocation and land use: Identifying complex pathways

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is increasingly used in developing countries to secure the sustainable provision of vital ecosystem services. The largest PES programs in the world are embedded in China's new forest policies, which aim to expand forest cover for soil and water conservation and improve livelihoods of rural people. The objective of this study is to identify the complex pathways of impacts of two PES programs - the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP) - on household livelihood decisions, and to quantify the direct and indirect impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated conceptual framework and applying a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM), based on household survey data from Anhui, China. Labor allocation (for on-farm work, local paid work, local business, and out-migration) and land use decisions (i.e., rent in, maintain, rent out, or abandon cropland) for participating households are key to understand PES program effects on livelihoods. Results show that the PES programs have only small direct effects but significant indirect effects via the mediating factor of capital assets. Moreover, group heterogeneity analysis shows that lower-income households do not benefit any more than the better-off households from the PES, while households with medium wealth increase dependence on agriculture. In addition, household demographics, individual attributes, and geographic settings differ in their impacts on labor allocation and land use decisions. We conclude that CCFP and EWFP programs would be more efficient in conserving the environment while improving the economic welfare of lower-income households if capital assets were taken into account in the design of compensation schemes.

Divergent socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program in the subtropical mountainous area and the semi-arid Loess Plateau

China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) is one of the world's largest Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs. Its socioeconomic-ecological effects are of great interest to both scholars and policy-makers. However, little is known about how the socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of CCFP differ across geographic regions. This study integrates household survey data, satellite imagery, and statistical models to examine labor migration and forest dynamics under CCFP. The investigation is carried out at two mountainous sites with distinct biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, one in a subtropical mountainous region (Anhui) and the other in the semi-arid Loess Plateau (Shanxi). We found divergent CCFP outcomes on migration behavior, stimulating both local- and distant-migration in the Anhui site while discouraging distant-migration in the Shanxi site, after controlling for factors at the individual, household, community and regional levels. Forest recovery is positively associated with distant-migration in Anhui but with local-migration in Shanxi. Contextual factors interact with demographic-socioeconomic factors to influence household livelihoods in both areas, leading to various socio-ecological pathways from CCFP participation to enhanced forest sustainability. Regional differences should therefore be taken into account in the design of future large-scale PES programs.

Long non-coding RNA LINC01287 promotes breast cancer cells proliferation and metastasis by activating Wnt/ß-catenin signaling

OBJECTIVE

Long noncoding RNA (lncRNAs) frequently exhibited abnormal levels in numerous tumors and other diseases in current biological researches. LINC01287, a newly discovered lncRNA, has been found to act as an oncogene in hepatocellular carcinoma. The aim of this research was to explore the expressions and functions of LINC01287 in breast cancer (BC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The relative expressions of LINC01287 in BC tissues and cells were determined using RT-PCR. The associations between the LINC01287 expression, the clinicopathological factors, and the overall survival of BC patients were statistically examined. The apoptosis and proliferation abilities of MCF-7 and MDA-MB-468 cells were analyzed by MTT and flow cytometry assay after LINC01287 knockdown. The effects of LINC01287 in migration and invasion were determined using wound-healing and transwell assays. The protein expressions of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway were determined using Western blot.

RESULTS

We showed that the levels of LINC01287 were significantly upregulated in BC tissues and BC cell lines, and the abnormal expressions of LINC01287 were correlated with TNM stage and lymph node metastasis. A distinct difference was observed and indicated that BC patients with higher LINC01287 expressions had significantly shorter overall survival than patients with lower LINC01287 expressions. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that LINC01287 expression was independently correlated with the overall survival. Si-LINC01287 transfection significantly inhibited the proliferation and metastasis of BC cells, and further promoted apoptosis. Besides, the knockdown of LINC01287 suppressed Wnt/β-catenin activation and affected the expressions of β-catenin, cyclin D1, and c-myc.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that the new lncRNA LINC01287 was correlated with poor clinical outcome and may function as a novel prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in the development of antineoplastic therapies for BC.

Clinical features may help to identify children and adolescents with greatest risk for thyroid nodules

BACKGROUND

Thyroid nodules (TN) are detected in a small number of asymptomatic children and adolescents but are more frequently malignant (22-26%) than in adults leading some clinicians to perform thyroid ultrasound (US) for all children with goiter or autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT). Our study was designed to determine if suspicious clinical features predict the presence of TN in children with goiter or AIT so that US could be performed on those at highest risk.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of 223 children and adolescents with goiter or AIT evaluated at a single institution. US was not performed on all patients. It is our practice to define glands that are large, firm, or nodular to palpation as "suspicious". Suspicious glands were interrogated by US and if TN was confirmed, this was further evaluated by fine-needle aspiration followed by surgery if indicated.

RESULTS

The median age was 12.9 years with 74.4% female. TN were confirmed by US in 16.6% of all patients but only 4.8% of those with AIT. By univariate analysis, TN were more common in those with family history of TN or differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), thyroid asymmetry, and lower thyrotropin (TSH) levels. Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) was identified in 10.8% of TN and 1.8% of all patients. Firmness was significantly more common in patients with DTC (p = 0.0013).

CONCLUSION

TN were less common in those with AIT than reported in previous studies, suggesting that clinical features might fail to identify the majority of TN in patients with AIT. However, patients with asymmetric thyroid and a family history of TN or DTC have greatest risk for TN.