The Association Between Proton Pump Inhibitor Exposure and Key Liver-Related Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The impact of proton pump inhibitory (PPI) medications on adverse outcomes in cirrhosis remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the association between PPI exposure and all-cause mortality, infection, and decompensation in a large national cohort.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration. PPI exposure was classified as a time-updating variable from the index time of the cirrhosis diagnosis. Inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted Cox regression was performed with additional adjustment for key time-varying covariates, including cardiovascular comorbidities, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), and statin exposure.

RESULTS

The study included 76,251 patients, 23,628 of whom were on a PPI at baseline. In adjusted models, binary (yes/no) PPI exposure was associated with reduced hazard of all-cause mortality in patients with hospitalization for GIB (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.91; P < .001) but had no significant association in all others (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.02; P = .58). However, cumulative PPI exposure was associated with increased mortality in patients without hospitalization for GIB (HR, 1.07 per 320 mg-months [omeprazole equivalents]; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). PPI exposure was significantly associated with severe infection (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18-1.24; P < .001) and decompensation (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.61-1.68; P < .001). In a cause-specific mortality analysis, PPI exposure was associated with increased liver-related mortality (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.28) but with decreased nonliver-related mortality (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

PPI exposure is associated with increased risk of infection and decompensation in cirrhosis, which may mediate liver-related mortality. However, PPI use was associated with reduced all-cause mortality in those with prior GIB, suggesting benefit in the presence of an appropriate indication.

Comparison of nivolumab and sorafenib for first systemic therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are excluded or underrepresented in clinical trials of systemic therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and comparisons of available therapies are lacking. We aimed to compare overall survival for patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated at Veterans Affairs medical centers to compare overall survival, adverse events, and reason for discontinuation of therapy between patients treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

Of those meeting inclusion criteria, 431 patients were treated with sorafenib and 79 with nivolumab. Median OS was 4.0 months (95% CI 3.5-4.8) in the sorafenib cohort and 5.0 months (95% CI 3.3-6.8) in the nivolumab cohort. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, nivolumab was associated with a significantly reduced hazard of death compared to sorafenib (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.52-0.91; p = 0.008). In a secondary analysis using propensity score methods, results did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.55-1.06; p = 0.11). Treatment was discontinued due to toxicity in 12% of patients receiving nivolumab compared to 36% receiving sorafenib (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis, nivolumab treatment may be associated with improved overall survival and improved tolerability compared to sorafenib and should be considered for the first systemic treatment in this population.

Inpatient Gastroenterology Consultation and Outcomes of Cirrhosis-Related Hospitalizations in Two Large National Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Little is known about use of specialty care among patients admitted with cirrhosis complications.

AIMS

We sought to characterize the use and impact of gastroenterology/hepatology (GI/HEP) consultations in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. We studied two national cohorts-the Veterans Affairs Costs and Outcomes in Liver Disease (VOCAL) and a nationally representative database of commercially insured patients (Optum Clinformatics™ DataMart).

METHODS

Cirrhosis-related admissions were classified by ICD9/10 codes for ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, alcohol-associated hepatitis, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or infection related. We included 20,287/222,166 index admissions from VOCAL/Optum from 2010 to 2016. Propensity-matched analyses were conducted to balance clinical characteristics. Mortality and readmission were evaluated using competing risk regression (subhazard ratios, sHR), and length of stay (LOS) was assessed using negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

GI/HEP consultations were completed among 37% and 42% patients in VOCAL and Optum, respectively. In propensity-matched analyses for VOCAL, GI/HEP consultation was associated with adjusted estimates of increased LOS (1.55 + 1.03 additional days), 90-day mortality (sHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.36), and lower 30-day readmissions (sHR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). In Optum, inpatient consultation was associated with higher LOS (1.13 + 1.01 additional days), higher 90-day mortality (sHR 1.57, 95% CI 1.43-1.72), and higher 30-day readmission risk (sHR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05). Post-discharge primary and specialty care was higher among admissions receiving GI/HEP consultation in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of GI/HEP consultation for cirrhosis-related admissions was low. Patients who received consultation had higher disease severity, and consultation was not associated with lower mortality but was associated with lower 30-day readmissions in the VA cohort only.

A multiancestry genome-wide association study of unexplained chronic ALT elevation as a proxy for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with histological and radiological validation

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing cause of chronic liver disease. Using a proxy NAFLD definition of chronic elevation of alanine aminotransferase (cALT) levels without other liver diseases, we performed a multiancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the Million Veteran Program (MVP) including 90,408 cALT cases and 128,187 controls. Seventy-seven loci exceeded genome-wide significance, including 25 without prior NAFLD or alanine aminotransferase associations, with one additional locus identified in European American-only and two in African American-only analyses (P < 5 × 10-8). External replication in histology-defined NAFLD cohorts (7,397 cases and 56,785 controls) or radiologic imaging cohorts (n = 44,289) replicated 17 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (P < 6.5 × 10-4), of which 9 were new (TRIB1, PPARG, MTTP, SERPINA1, FTO, IL1RN, COBLL1, APOH and IFI30). Pleiotropy analysis showed that 61 of 77 multiancestry and all 17 replicated SNPs were jointly associated with metabolic and/or inflammatory traits, revealing a complex model of genetic architecture. Our approach integrating cALT, histology and imaging reveals new insights into genetic liability to NAFLD.

Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores.

RESULTS

A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.

Statin exposure is associated with reduced development of acute-on-chronic liver failure in a Veterans Affairs cohort

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

There is a need to identify therapies that prevent the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This study sought to evaluate the association between statin exposure and the risk of developing ACLF in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on statin exposure (statin naïve, existing statin user, and new statin initiator). Cox proportional hazards regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and marginal structural models were utilized to comprehensively address potential confounding in estimating the association between time-updated statin exposure and first occurrence of high-grade ACLF.

RESULTS

The cohort included 84,963 patients, of whom 26.9% were on a statin at baseline. A total of 8,558 (10.1%) patients with cirrhosis were hospitalized with high-grade ACLF over a median follow-up time of 51.6 months (IQR 27.5-81.4). Time-updated statin use was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of developing ACLF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65, p <0.001). Increasing doses of statin were associated with progressively reduced hazard of developing ACLF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p <0.001 for <20 mg vs. 0 mg of time-updated statin exposure, in simvastatin equivalents; HR 0.61, 95%, CI 0.58-0.64, p <0.001 for >20 mg vs. 0 mg statin exposure). Furthermore, every additional 5 months of statin exposure was associated with a 9% reduced hazard of high-grade ACLF (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92, p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, retrospective, cohort study in patients with cirrhosis, statin use was significantly associated with reduced development of high-grade ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Statin therapy has been shown to have numerous beneficial effects in patients with chronic liver disease. This study demonstrated a strong association between statin therapy and a reduced risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development in patients with cirrhosis. The results of this study support the promising role that statins may play in future prevention of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Ranitidine Use and Gastric Cancer Among Persons with Helicobacter pylori

BACKGROUND

The Food and Drug Administration requested withdrawal of ranitidine formulations, due to a potentially carcinogenic contaminant, N-nitrosodimethylamine.

AIMS

We evaluate whether ranitidine use is associated with gastric cancer.

METHODS

This is a retrospective multicenter, nationwide cohort study within the Veterans Health Administration, among patients with Helicobacter pylori (HP) prescribed long-term acid suppression with either: (1) ranitidine, (2) other histamine type 2 receptor blocker (H2RB), or (3) proton pump inhibitor (PPI)) between May 1, 1998, and December 31, 2018. Covariates included race, ethnicity, smoking, age, HP treatment, HP eradication. Primary outcome was non-proximal gastric adenocarcinomas, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 279,505 patients with HP prescribed long-term acid suppression (median 53.4 years; 92.9% male). Compared to ranitidine, non-ranitidine H2RB users were more likely to develop cancer (HR 1.83, 95%CI 1.36-2.48); PPI users had no significant difference in future cancer risk (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.82-1.04), p < 0.001. Demographics associated with future cancer included increasing age (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.15-1.20, p < 0.001), Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.21-1.75, p < 0.001), Black race (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.68-2.14) or Asian race (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.17-3.52), p < 0.001, and gender (female gender HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.85, p = 0.02). Smoking was associated with future cancer (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.23-1.54, p < 0.001). Secondary analysis demonstrated decreased cancer risk in those with confirmed HP eradication (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.14-0.40). No association between ranitidine and increased gastric cancer was found.

CONCLUSION

There is no demonstrable association between ranitidine use and future gastric cancer among individuals with HP on long-term acid suppression.

Race Adjustment in eGFR Equations Does Not Improve Estimation of Acute Kidney Injury Events in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Accuracy of glomerular filtration rate estimating (eGFR) equations has significant implications in cirrhosis, potentially guiding simultaneous liver kidney allocation and drug dosing. Most equations adjust for Black race, partially accounted for by reported differences in muscle mass by race. Patients with cirrhosis, however, are prone to sarcopenia which may mitigate such differences. We evaluated the association between baseline eGFR and incident acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cirrhosis with and without race adjustment.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective national cohort study of veterans with cirrhosis. Baseline eGFR was calculated using multiple eGFR equations including Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI), both with and without race adjustment. Poisson regression was used to investigate the association between baseline eGFR and incident AKI events per International Club of Ascites criteria.

RESULTS

We identified 72,267 patients with cirrhosis, who were 97.3% male, 57.8% white, and 19.7% Black. Over median follow-up 2.78 years (interquartile range 1.22-5.16), lower baseline eGFR by CKD-EPI was significantly associated with higher rates of AKI in adjusted models. For all equations this association was minimally impacted when race adjustment was removed. For example, removal of race adjustment from CKD-EPI resulted in a 0.1% increase in the association between lower eGFR and higher rate of AKI events per 15 mL/min/1.73 m² change (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Race adjustment in eGFR equations did not enhance AKI risk estimation in patients with cirrhosis. Further study is warranted to assess the impacts of removing race from eGFR equations on clinical outcomes and policy.

Transarterial Embolization Modulates the Immune Response within Target and Nontarget Hepatocellular Carcinomas in a Rat Model

Background Transarterial embolization (TAE) is the most common treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, there remain limited data describing the influence of TAE on the tumor immune microenvironment. Purpose To characterize TAE-induced modulation of the tumor immune microenvironment in a rat model of HCC and identify factors that modulate this response. Materials and Methods TAE was performed on autochthonous HCCs induced in rats with use of diethylnitrosamine. CD3, CD4, CD8, and FOXP3 lymphocytes, as well as programmed cell death protein ligand-1 (PD-L1) expression, were examined in three cohorts: tumors from rats that did not undergo embolization (control), embolized tumors (target), and nonembolized tumors from rats that had a different target tumor embolized (nontarget). Differences in immune cell recruitment associated with embolic agent type (tris-acryl gelatin microspheres [TAGM] vs hydrogel embolics) and vascular location were examined in rat and human tissues. A generalized estimating equation model and t, Mann-Whitney U, and χ2 tests were used to compare groups. Results Cirrhosis-induced alterations in CD8, CD4, and CD25/CD4 lymphocytes were partially normalized following TAE (CD8: 38.4%, CD4: 57.6%, and CD25/CD4: 21.1% in embolized liver vs 47.7% [P = .02], 47.0% [P = .01], and 34.9% [P = .03], respectively, in cirrhotic liver [36.1%, 59.6%, and 4.6% in normal liver]). Embolized tumors had a greater number of CD3, CD4, and CD8 tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes relative to controls (191.4 cells/mm2 vs 106.7 cells/mm2 [P = .03]; 127.8 cells/mm2 vs 53.8 cells/mm2 [P < .001]; and 131.4 cells/mm2 vs 78.3 cells/mm2 [P = .01]) as well as a higher PD-L1 expression score (4.1 au vs 1.9 au [P < .001]). A greater number of CD3, CD4, and CD8 lymphocytes were found near TAGM versus hydrogel embolics (4.1 vs 2.0 [P = .003]; 3.7 vs 2.0 [P = .01]; and 2.2 vs 1.1 [P = .03], respectively). The number of lymphocytes adjacent to embolics differed based on vascular location (17.9 extravascular CD68+ peri-TAGM cells vs 7.0 intravascular [P < .001]; 6.4 extravascular CD68+ peri-hydrogel embolic cells vs 3.4 intravascular [P < .001]). Conclusion Transarterial embolization-induced dynamic alterations of the tumor immune microenvironment are influenced by underlying liver disease, embolic agent type, and vascular location. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorials by Kennedy et al and by White in this issue.

Rates of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in AMA-negative primary biliary cholangitis cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The natural history of patients with anti-mitochondrial antibody (AMA)-negative Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) cirrhosis has not been well defined, with prior studies showing discordant results. Furthermore, most studies of AMA-negative PBC have limited numbers of patients with cirrhosis and liver-related outcomes.

METHODS

We investigated the association of AMA-negative PBC and the development of death, liver-related death, decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 521 patients with PBC cirrhosis (65 AMA-negative) with a total follow-up of 2504.3 person-years (PY) from cirrhosis diagnosis, patients with AMA-negative PBC were younger and more likely to be black but had similar rates of UDCA response. AMA-negative PBC cirrhosis was associated with similar unadjusted rates of liver-related death (4.6 vs 5.9 per 100 PY, P = .44), overall death (7.7 vs 9.6 per 100 PY, P = .31), decompensation (7.3 vs 5.1 per 100 PY, P = .12) and HCC (0.6 vs 1.0 per 100 PY, P = .63) to AMA-positive PBC. After adjusting for confounders, AMA-negative PBC cirrhosis was associated with similar rates of liver-related death (sub-Hazard Ratio [sHR] 1.27, 95% CI 0.71-2.28, P = .42, death [sHR] 1.24, 95% CI 0.81-1.90, P = .32), decompensation (sHR 1.05, 95% CI 0.56-1.98, P = .87) and HCC (sHR 0.48, 95% CI 0.11-2.10, P = .33) to AMA-positive patients.

CONCLUSION

In a cohort of predominantly male patients, AMA-negative PBC cirrhosis was associated with similar rates of overall or liver-related death, HCC or decompensation compared with AMA-positive disease.

Evaluation Within 30 Days of Referral for Liver Transplantation is Associated with Reduced Mortality: A Multicenter Analysis of Patients Referred Within the VA Health System

BACKGROUND

Successful liver transplantation offers the possibility of improved survival among patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, there is wide variability in access to care and promptness of the transplant evaluation process in the United States.

METHODS

We performed a multicenter retrospective study of 1118 patients who underwent evaluation for liver transplantation at the 6 Veterans Affairs' transplant centers from 2013 to 2018. Of these, 832 patients were evaluated within 30 d and 286 > 30 d after referral. We studied the differential effects of the time from referral to evaluation on pretransplant and posttransplant mortality and transplant list dropout and explored predictors of early transplant evaluation.

RESULTS

Patients in the early evaluation group had a shorter adjusted time from referral to listing by 29.5 d (95% confidence interval [CI] -50.4, -8.5, P < 0.006), and referral to transplantation by 115.1 d (95% CI -179.5, -50.7, P < 0.0001). On a multivariable Cox hazard model, evaluation within 30 d of referral was associated with a significantly lower pretransplant mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.70, 95% CI 0.54-0.91, P < 0.01), but not associated with transplant list dropout (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.65-1.39, P = 0.79) or posttransplant death (aHR 1.88, 95% CI 0.72-4.9, P = 0.20). An early evaluation within 30 d was positively associated with a higher MELD at referral (aHR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, P = 0.006) and negatively associated with distance from the transplant center (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-0.99, P = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluation of patients referred for liver transplantation within 30 d is associated with a reduction in pretransplant mortality.

Variability in biopsy quality informs translational research applications in hepatocellular carcinoma

In the era of precision medicine, biopsies are playing an increasingly central role in cancer research and treatment paradigms; however, patient outcomes and analyses of biopsy quality, as well as impact on downstream clinical and research applications, remain underreported. Herein, we report biopsy safety and quality outcomes for percutaneous core biopsies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) performed as part of a prospective clinical trial. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of HCC were enrolled in a prospective cohort study for the genetic, proteomic, and metabolomic profiling of HCC at two academic medical centers from April 2016 to July 2020. Under image guidance, 18G core biopsies were obtained using coaxial technique at the time of locoregional therapy. The primary outcome was biopsy quality, defined as tumor fraction in the core biopsy. 56 HCC lesions from 50 patients underwent 60 biopsy events with a median of 8 core biopsies per procedure (interquartile range, IQR, 7–10). Malignancy was identified in 45/56 (80.4%, 4 without pathology) biopsy events, including HCC (40/56, 71.4%) and cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or combined HCC-CCA (5/56, 8.9%). Biopsy quality was highly variable with a median of 40% tumor in each biopsy core (IQR 10–75). Only 43/56 (76.8%) and 23/56 (41.1%) samples met quality thresholds for genomic or metabolomic/proteomic profiling, respectively, requiring expansion of the clinical trial. Overall and major complication rates were 5/60 (8.3%) and 3/60 (5.0%), respectively. Despite uniform biopsy protocol, biopsy quality varied widely with up to 59% of samples to be inadequate for intended purpose. This finding has important consequences for clinical trial design and highlights the need for quality control prior to applications in which the presence of benign cell types may substantially alter findings.

Impact of SGLT2 inhibitors in comparison with DPP4 inhibitors on ascites and death in veterans with cirrhosis on metformin

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) may have favourable neurohumoral and metabolic effects in patients with chronic liver disease. However, studies examining SGLT2i in this population have been limited to patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and have focused on surrogate biomarkers. Our aim was to evaluate whether SGLT2i can reduce the incidence of ascites and death over a period of 36 months in patients with cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus. Using electronic health data from Veterans Affairs hospitals in the United States, we conducted a propensity score matched intention-to-treat analysis among veterans on metformin who subsequently received either SGLT2i or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Among 423 matched pairs (in total, 846 patients), we found no significant difference in the risk for ascites (hazard ratio 0.68 for SGLT2i, 95% confidence interval 0.37-1.25; p = .22) but did find that SGLT2i users had a reduced risk for death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.11-0.99; p < .05). In comparison with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, SGLT2i may improve survival for patients with cirrhosis who require additional pharmacotherapy for diabetes mellitus beyond metformin, but confirmatory studies are necessary.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Compensated Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with cirrhosis and men have been under-represented in most studies examining the clinical benefit of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to study the association of UDCA response and liver-related death or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with PBC cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans, predominantly men, with PBC and compensated cirrhosis to assess the association of UDCA response with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and HCC using competing risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We identified 501 subjects with PBC and compensated cirrhosis, including 287 UDCA responders (1,692.8 patient-years [PY] of follow-up) and 214 partial responders (838.9 PY of follow-up). The unadjusted rates of hepatic decompensation (3.8 vs 7.9 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) and liver-related death or transplantation (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) were lower in UDCA responders compared with partial responders. UDCA response was associated with a lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subhazard ratio [sHR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.95, P = 0.03), death from any cause or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.72, P = 0.0002), and liver-related death or transplantation (sHR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67, P = 0.0004), but not HCC (sHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.60-2.55, P = 0.32). In a sensitivity analysis, the presence of portal hypertension was associated with the highest UDCA-associated effect.

DISCUSSION

UDCA response is associated with a reduction in decompensation, all-cause, and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of predominantly male patients with cirrhosis, with the highest benefit in patients with portal hypertension.

Male Sex Is Associated With Higher Rates of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The impact of sex on the postcirrhosis progression of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been well defined. Prior studies have suggested that men have worse outcomes but present at more advanced stages of fibrosis than women. This observation, however, has been limited by small numbers of men and even fewer patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We investigated the association of sex with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), using competing-risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration. In a cohort of 532 participants (418 male) with PBC-related cirrhosis with a total follow-up of 3,231.6 person-years (PY) from diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis, male participants had a higher unadjusted rates of death or transplantation (8.5 vs. 3.8 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), liver-related death or transplantation (5.5 vs. 2.7 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), decompensation (5.5 vs. 4.0 per 100 PY; P = 0.002), and HCC (0.9 vs. 0.3 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, male sex was associated with a higher risk of death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19; P = 0.046), and liver-related death or transplantation (subhazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.15-4.08; P = 0.02). A sensitivity analysis that defined ursodeoxycholic acid response as normalization of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin revealed similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with PBC and well-compensated cirrhosis, male sex is associated with a higher risk of both death and liver-related death or transplantation.

Impact of Obeticholic acid Exposure on Decompensation and Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis

Obeticholic acid (OCA) is approved for the treatment of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) who are partial responders or intolerant to ursodeoxycholic acid. Reports of serious liver injury have raised concerns about its safety in cirrhosis. We investigated the effects of treatment with OCA on hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality or transplantation in a cohort with compensated PBC cirrhosis. This was a retrospective cohort study using national data of US veterans with PBC and cirrhosis. We performed a propensity score model using variables associated with OCA prescription to control for baseline risk of decompensation. New OCA users were matched to nonusers. We identified 509 subjects with compensated PBC cirrhosis. We developed a propensity score model using variables associated with OCA prescription; 21 OCA users were matched with 84 nonusers. Over 569 and 3,847 person-months, respectively, of follow-up, 5 (23.8%) OCA users and 22 (26.2%) OCA nonusers decompensated. The C-statistic of the propensity score model was 0.87. On multivariable analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, OCA use was associated with an increased risk of hepatic decompensation (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-11.57; P = 0.01). There was no association between OCA use and liver-related mortality or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-5.21; P = 0.66). Conclusion: OCA use was associated with an increase in hepatic decompensation but not liver-related mortality or transplantation in patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis. Additional studies are recommended to prospectively investigate these findings.

External Validation of the VOCAL-Penn Cirrhosis Surgical Risk Score in 2 Large, Independent Health Systems

Cirrhosis poses an increased risk of postoperative mortality, yet it remains challenging to accurately risk stratify patients in clinical practice. The VOCAL-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk score was recently developed and internally validated in the national Veterans Affairs health system; however, to date this score has not been evaluated in independent cohorts. The goal of this study was to compare the predictive performance of the VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo risk, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) scores in 2 large health systems. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgical procedures of interest at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center or University of Pennsylvania Health System from January 1, 2008, to October 1, 2015. The outcomes of interest were 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality. Concordance statistics (C-statistics), calibration curves, Brier scores, and the index of prediction accuracy (IPA) were compared for each predictive model. A total of 855 surgical procedures were identified. The VOCAL-Penn score had the numerically highest C-statistic for 90-day postoperative mortality (eg, 0.82 versus 0.79 Mayo versus 0.78 MELD-Na versus 0.79 MELD), although differences were not statistically significant. Calibrations were excellent for the VOCAL-Penn, MELD, and MELD-Na; however, the Mayo score consistently overestimated risk. The VOCAL-Penn had the lowest Brier score and highest IPA at both time points, suggesting superior overall predictive model performance. In subgroup analyses of patients with higher MELD scores, the VOCAL-Penn had significantly higher C-statistics compared with the MELD and MELD-Na. The VOCAL-Penn score (www.vocalpennscore.com) has excellent discrimination and calibration for postoperative mortality among diverse patients with cirrhosis. Overall performance is superior to the Mayo, MELD, and MELD-Na scores. In contrast to the MELD/MELD-Na, the VOCAL-Penn retains excellent discrimination among patients with higher MELD scores.

Predicting survival after liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using the LiTES-HCC score

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver transplant priority in the US and Europe follows the 'sickest-first' principle. However, for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), priority is based on binary tumor criteria to expedite transplant for patients with 'acceptable' post-transplant outcomes. Newer risk scores developed to overcome limitations of these binary criteria are insufficient to be used for waitlist priority as they focus solely on HCC-related pre-transplant variables. We sought to develop a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients using HCC- and non-HCC-related variables.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using national registry data on adult deceased-donor liver transplant (DDLT) recipients with HCC from 2/27/02-12/31/18. We fit Cox regression models focused on 5- and 10-year survival to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection. We then calculated absolute predicted survival time and compared it to available risk scores.

RESULTS

Among 6,502 adult DDLT recipients with HCC, 11 variables were selected in the final model. The AUCs at 5- and 10-years were: 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.67 and 0.65, 95% CI 0.58-0.72, which was not statistically significantly different to the Metroticket and HALT-HCC scores. The LiTES-HCC score was able to discriminate patients based on post-transplant survival among those meeting Milan and UCSF criteria.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients with HCC. By including HCC- and non-HCC-related variables (e.g., age, chronic kidney disease), this score could allow transplant professionals to prioritize patients with HCC in terms of predicted survival. In the future, this score could be integrated into survival benefit-based models to lead to meaningful improvements in life-years at the population level.

LAY SUMMARY

We created a risk score to predict how long patients with liver cancer will live if they get a liver transplant. In the future, this could be used to decide which waitlisted patients should get the next transplant.

Genetic analysis in European ancestry individuals identifies 517 loci associated with liver enzymes

Serum concentration of hepatic enzymes are linked to liver dysfunction, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. We perform genetic analysis on serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) using data on 437,438 UK Biobank participants. Replication in 315,572 individuals from European descent from the Million Veteran Program, Rotterdam Study and Lifeline study confirms 517 liver enzyme SNPs. Genetic risk score analysis using the identified SNPs is strongly associated with serum activity of liver enzymes in two independent European descent studies (The Airwave Health Monitoring study and the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966). Gene-set enrichment analysis using the identified SNPs highlights involvement in liver development and function, lipid metabolism, insulin resistance, and vascular formation. Mendelian randomization analysis shows association of liver enzyme variants with coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke. Genetic risk score for elevated serum activity of liver enzymes is associated with higher fat percentage of body, trunk, and liver and body mass index. Our study highlights the role of molecular pathways regulated by the liver in metabolic disorders and cardiovascular disease.

Frailty Is a Risk Factor for Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Diverse Major Surgeries

With a rising burden of cirrhosis surgeries, understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality is more salient than ever. The role of baseline frailty has not been assessed in this context. We evaluated the association between patient frailty and postoperative risk among diverse patients with cirrhosis and determined if frailty improves prognostication of cirrhosis surgical risk scores. This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016 who underwent nontransplant major surgery. Frailty was ascertained using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the impact of patient frailty on postoperative mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify incremental changes in discrimination for postoperative mortality when frailty was added to the risk prediction models, including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), and Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated With Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn. A total of 804 cirrhosis surgeries were identified. The majority of patients (48.5%) had high-risk frailty at baseline (HFRS >15). In adjusted Cox regression models, categories of increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer postoperative survival. For example, intermediate-risk frailty (HFRS 5-15) conferred a 1.77-fold increased hazard relative to low-risk frailty (HFRS, <5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.95; P = 0.03). High-risk frailty demonstrated a similarly increased hazard (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.05-2.88; P = 0.03), suggesting a threshold effect of frailty on postoperative mortality. The incorporation of frailty improved discrimination of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP for postoperative mortality, but did not do so for the MRS or VOCAL-Penn score. Patient frailty was an additional important predictor of cirrhosis surgical risk. The incorporation of preoperative frailty assessments may help to risk stratify patients, especially in settings where the MELD-Na and CTP are commonly applied.