Linking river flow regimes to riparian plant guilds: a community-wide modeling approach

Modeling riparian plant dynamics along rivers is complicated by the fact that plants have different edaphic and hydrologic requirements at different life stages. With intensifying human demands for water and continued human alteration of rivers, there is a growing need for predicting responses of vegetation to flow alteration, including responses related to climate change and river flow management. We developed a coupled structured population model that combines stage-specific responses of plant guilds with specific attributes of river hydrologic regime. The model uses information on the vital rates of guilds as they relate to different hydrologic conditions (flood, drought, and baseflow), but deliberately omits biotic interactions from the structure (interaction neutral). Our intent was to (1) consolidate key vital rates concerning plant population dynamics and to incorporate these data into a quantitative framework, (2) determine whether complex plant stand dynamics, including biotic interactions, can be predicted from basic vital rates and river hydrology, and (3) project how altered flow regimes might affect riparian communities. We illustrated the approach using five flow-response guilds that encompass much of the river floodplain community: hydroriparian tree, xeroriparian shrub, hydroriparian shrub, mesoriparian meadow, and desert shrub. We also developed novel network-based tools for predicting community-wide effects of climate-driven shifts and deliberately altered flow regimes. The model recovered known patterns of hydroriparian tree vs. xeroriparian shrub dominance, including the relative proportion of these two guilds as a function of river flow modification. By simulating flow alteration scenarios ranging from increased drought to shifts in flood timing, the model predicted that mature hydroriparian forest should be most abundant near the observed natural flow regime. Multiguild sensitivity analysis identified substantial network connectivity (many connected nodes) and biotic linkage (strong pairwise connections between nodes) under natural flow regime conditions. Both connectivity and linkage were substantially reduced under drought and other flow-alteration scenarios, suggesting that community structure is destabilized under such conditions. This structured population modeling approach provides a useful tool for understanding the community-wide effects of altered flow regimes due to climate change and management actions that influence river flow regime.

Importance of neutral processes varies in time and space: Evidence from dryland stream ecosystems

Many ecosystems experience strong temporal variability in environmental conditions; yet, a clear picture of how niche and neutral processes operate to determine community assembly in temporally variable systems remains elusive. In this study, we constructed neutral metacommunity models to assess the relative importance of neutral processes in a spatially and temporally variable ecosystem. We analyzed macroinvertebrate community data spanning multiple seasons and years from 20 sites in a Sonoran Desert river network in Arizona. The model goodness-of-fit was used to infer the importance of neutral processes. Averaging over eight stream flow conditions across three years, we found that neutral processes were more important in perennial streams than in non-perennial streams (intermittent and ephemeral streams). Averaging across perennial and non-perennial streams, we found that neutral processes were more important during very high flow and in low flow periods; whereas, at very low flows, the relative importance of neutral processes varied greatly. These findings were robust to the choice of model parameter values. Our study suggested that the net effect of disturbance on the relative importance of niche and neutral processes in community assembly varies non-monotonically with the severity of disturbance. In contrast to the prevailing view that disturbance promotes niche processes, we found that neutral processes could become more important when the severity of disturbance is beyond a certain threshold such that all organisms are adversely affected regardless of their biological traits and strategies.

Response diversity, nonnative species, and disassembly rules buffer freshwater ecosystem processes from anthropogenic change

Integrating knowledge of environmental degradation, biodiversity change, and ecosystem processes across large spatial scales remains a key challenge to illuminating the resilience of earth's systems. There is now a growing realization that the manner in which communities will respond to anthropogenic impacts will ultimately control the ecosystem consequences. Here, we examine the response of freshwater fishes and their nutrient excretion - a key ecosystem process that can control aquatic productivity - to human land development across the contiguous United States. By linking a continental-scale dataset of 533 fish species from 8100 stream locations with species functional traits, nutrient excretion, and land remote sensing, we present four key findings. First, we provide the first geographic footprint of nutrient excretion by freshwater fishes across the United States and reveal distinct local- and continental-scale heterogeneity in community excretion rates. Second, fish species exhibited substantial response diversity in their sensitivity to land development; for native species, the more tolerant species were also the species contributing greater ecosystem function in terms of nutrient excretion. Third, by modeling increased land-use change and resultant shifts in fish community composition, land development is estimated to decrease fish nutrient excretion in the majority (63%) of ecoregions. Fourth, the loss of nutrient excretion would be 28% greater if biodiversity loss was random or 84% greater if there were no nonnative species. Thus, ecosystem processes are sensitive to increased anthropogenic degradation but biotic communities provide multiple pathways for resistance and this resistance varies across space.

Evolutionary and environmental determinants of freshwater fish thermal tolerance and plasticity

Understanding the extent to which phylogenetic constraints and adaptive evolutionary forces help define the physiological sensitivity of species is critical for anticipating climate-related impacts in aquatic environments. Yet, whether upper thermal tolerance and plasticity are shaped by common evolutionary and environmental mechanisms remains to be tested. Based on a systematic literature review, we investigated this question in 82 freshwater fish species (27 families) representing 829 experiments for which data existed on upper thermal limits and it was possible to estimate plasticity using upper thermal tolerance reaction norms. Our findings indicated that there are strong phylogenetic signals in both thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity, although it is weaker in the latter. We found that upper thermal tolerances are correlated with the temperatures experienced by species across their range, likely because of spatially autocorrelated processes in which closely related species share similar selection pressures and limited dispersal from ancestral environments. No association with species thermal habitat was found for acclimation capacity. Instead, species with the lowest physiological plasticity also displayed the highest thermal tolerances, reflecting to some extent an evolutionary trade-off between these two traits. Although our study demonstrates that macroecological climatic niche features measured from species distributions are likely to provide a good approximation of freshwater fish sensitivity to climate change, disentangling the mechanisms underlying both acute and chronic heat tolerances may help to refine predictions regarding climate change-related range shifts and extinctions.

Genetic Differentiation, Isolation-by-Distance, and Metapopulation Dynamics of the Arizona Treefrog (Hyla wrightorum) in an Isolated Portion of Its Range

Population attributes such as diversity, connectivity, and structure are important components of understanding species persistence and vulnerability to extinction. Hyla wrightorum, the Arizona treefrog, is native to the southwestern United States and Mexico, and an isolated group of populations exists in the Huachuca Mountains and Canelo Hills (HMCH) of southeastern Arizona, USA. Due to concerns about declining observations of the species within the isolated HMCH portion of its range, the HMCH group is currently a candidate for federal protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We present results of a genetic study examining population diversity, structure, and connectivity within the HMCH region. We sampled DNA from H. wrightorum larvae and adults from ten distinct locations, 8 of which were breeding sites and 4 of which were previously undescribed localities for the species. We developed and genotyped 17 polymorphic microsatellite loci and quantified genetic diversity, population differentiation, and landscape influences on population genetic structure. We found evidence of larger than expected effective population sizes, significant genetic differentiation between populations, and evidence of distance being the primary driver of genetic structure of populations with some influence of slope and canopy cover. We found little evidence of recent genetic bottlenecks, and individual-based analyses indicate admixture between populations despite significant genetic differentiation. These patterns may indicate that the breeding sites within the Huachuca Mountains constitute a metapopulation. We suggest that the HMCH region may contain larger and more connected breeding populations than previously understood, but the dynamics of this system and the limited geographic extent of the HMCH group justify current concern for the persistence of the species in this region. Efforts to ensure availability of high-quality breeding habitats and control for local threats such as effects of invasive predators may be critical to the persistence of these unique populations of H. wrightorum.

Phylogeographic insights into the invasion history and secondary spread of the signal crayfish in Japan

Successful invasion by nonindigenous species is often attributed to high propagule pressure, yet some foreign species become widespread despite showing reduced genetic variation due to founder effects. The signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) is one such example, where rapid spread across Japan in recent decades is believed to be the result of only three founding populations. To infer the history and explore the success of this remarkable crayfish invasion, we combined detailed phylogeographical and morphological analyses conducted in both the introduced and native ranges. We sequenced 16S mitochondrial DNA of signal crayfish from across the introduced range in Japan (537 samples, 20 sites) and the native range in western North America (700 samples, 50 sites). Because chela size is often related to aggressive behavior in crayfish, and hence, their invasion success, we also measured chela size of a subset of specimens in both introduced and native ranges. Genetic diversity of introduced signal crayfish populations was as high as that of the dominant phylogeographic group in the native range, suggesting high propagule pressure during invasion. More recently established crayfish populations in Japan that originated through secondary spread from one of the founding populations exhibit reduced genetic diversity relative to older populations, probably as a result of founder effects. However, these newer populations also show larger chela size, consistent with expectations of rapid adaptations or phenotypic responses during the invasion process. Introduced signal crayfish populations in Japan originate from multiple source populations from a wide geographic range in the native range of western North America. A combination of high genetic diversity, especially for older populations in the invasive range, and rapid adaptation to colonization, manifested as larger chela in recent invasions, likely contribute to invasion success of signal crayfish in Japan.

Phylogenetic species delimitation for crayfishes of the genus Pacifastacus

Molecular genetic approaches are playing an increasing role in conservation science by identifying biodiversity that may not be evident by morphology-based taxonomy and systematics. So-called cryptic species are particularly prevalent in freshwater environments, where isolation of dispersal-limited species, such as crayfishes, within dendritic river networks often gives rise to high intra- and inter-specific genetic divergence. We apply here a multi-gene molecular approach to investigate relationships among extant species of the crayfish genus Pacifastacus, representing the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this taxonomic group. Importantly, Pacifastacus includes both the widely invasive signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus, as well as several species of conservation concern like the Shasta crayfish Pacifastacus fortis. Our analysis used 83 individuals sampled across the four extant Pacifastacus species (omitting the extinct Pacifastacus nigrescens), representing the known taxonomic diversity and geographic distributions within this genus as comprehensively as possible. We reconstructed phylogenetic trees from mitochondrial (16S, COI) and nuclear genes (GAPDH), both separately and using a combined or concatenated dataset, and performed several species delimitation analyses (PTP, ABGD, GMYC) on the COI phylogeny to propose Primary Species Hypotheses (PSHs) within the genus. All phylogenies recovered the genus Pacifastacus as monophyletic, within which we identified a range of six to 21 PSHs; more abundant PSHs delimitations from GMYC and ABGD were always nested within PSHs delimited by the more conservative PTP method. Pacifastacus leniusculus included the majority of PSHs and was not monophyletic relative to the other Pacifastacus species considered. Several of these highly distinct P. leniusculus PSHs likely require urgent conservation attention. Our results identify research needs and conservation priorities for Pacifastacus crayfishes in western North America, and may inform better understanding and management of P. leniusculus in regions where it is invasive, such as Europe and Japan.

Disentangling the influences of mean body size and size structure on ecosystem functioning: an example of nutrient recycling by a non-native crayfish

Body size is a fundamental functional trait that can be used to forecast individuals' responses to environmental change and their contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, information on the mean and variation of size distributions often confound one another when relating body size to aggregate functioning. Given that size‐based metrics are used as indicators of ecosystem status, it is important to identify the specific aspects of size distributions that mediate ecosystem functioning. Our goal was to simultaneously account for the mean, variance, and shape of size distributions when relating body size to aggregate ecosystem functioning. We take advantage of habitat‐specific differences in size distributions to estimate nutrient recycling by a non‐native crayfish using mean‐field and variance‐incorporating approaches. Crayfishes often substantially influence ecosystem functioning through their omnivorous role in aquatic food webs. As predicted from Jensen's inequality, considering only the mean body size of crayfish overestimated aggregate effects on ecosystem functioning. This bias declined with mean body size such that mean‐field and variance‐incorporating estimates of ecosystem functioning were similar for samples at mean body sizes >7.5 g. At low mean body size, mean‐field bias in ecosystem functioning mismatch predictions from Jensen's inequality, likely because of the increasing skewness of the size distribution. Our findings support the prediction that variance around the mean can alter the relationship between body size and ecosystem functioning, especially at low mean body size. However, methods to account for mean‐field bias performed poorly in samples with highly skewed distributions, indicating that changes in the shape of the distribution, in addition to the variance, may confound mean‐based estimates of ecosystem functioning. Given that many biological functions scale allometrically, explicitly defining and experimentally or statistically isolating the effects of the mean, variance, and shape of size distributions is necessary to begin generalizing relationships between animal body size and ecosystem functioning.