A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

COVID-19 vaccines that reduce symptoms but do not block infection need higher coverage and faster rollout to achieve population impact

Trial results for two COVID-19 vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VEDIS). It remains unknown whether this efficacy is mediated by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility (VESUSC) or development of symptoms after infection (VESYMP). We aim to assess and compare the population impact of vaccines with different efficacy profiles (VESYMP and VESUSC) satisfying licensure criteria. We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington. Rollout scenarios starting December 2020 were simulated with combinations of VESUSC and VESYMP resulting in up to 100% VEDIS. We assumed no reduction of infectivity upon infection conditional on presence of symptoms. Proportions of cumulative infections, hospitalizations and deaths prevented over 1 year from vaccination start are reported. Rollouts of 1 M vaccinations (5000 daily) using vaccines with 50% VEDIS are projected to prevent 23-46% of infections and 31-46% of deaths over 1 year. In comparison, vaccines with 90% VEDIS are projected to prevent 37-64% of infections and 46-64% of deaths over 1 year. In both cases, there is a greater reduction if VEDIS is mediated mostly by VESUSC. The use of a "symptom reducing" vaccine will require twice as many people vaccinated than a "susceptibility reducing" vaccine with the same 90% VEDIS to prevent 50% of the infections and death over 1 year. Delaying the start of the vaccination by 3 months decreases the expected population impact by more than 50%. Vaccines which prevent COVID-19 disease but not SARS-CoV-2 infection, and thereby shift symptomatic infections to asymptomatic infections, will prevent fewer infections and require larger and faster vaccination rollouts to have population impact, compared to vaccines that reduce susceptibility to infection. If uncontrolled transmission across the U.S. continues, then expected vaccination in Spring 2021 will provide only limited benefit.

Effect of Bamlanivimab vs Placebo on Incidence of COVID-19 Among Residents and Staff of Skilled Nursing and Assisted Living Facilities: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Preventive interventions are needed to protect residents and staff of skilled nursing and assisted living facilities from COVID-19 during outbreaks in their facilities. Bamlanivimab, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody against SARS-CoV-2, may confer rapid protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of bamlanivimab on the incidence of COVID-19 among residents and staff of skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, double-blind, single-dose, phase 3 trial that enrolled residents and staff of 74 skilled nursing and assisted living facilities in the United States with at least 1 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index case. A total of 1175 participants enrolled in the study from August 2 to November 20, 2020. Database lock was triggered on January 13, 2021, when all participants reached study day 57.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized to receive a single intravenous infusion of bamlanivimab, 4200 mg (n = 588), or placebo (n = 587).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was incidence of COVID-19, defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and mild or worse disease severity within 21 days of detection, within 8 weeks of randomization. Key secondary outcomes included incidence of moderate or worse COVID-19 severity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

The prevention population comprised a total of 966 participants (666 staff and 300 residents) who were negative at baseline for SARS-CoV-2 infection and serology (mean age, 53.0 [range, 18-104] years; 722 [74.7%] women). Bamlanivimab significantly reduced the incidence of COVID-19 in the prevention population compared with placebo (8.5% vs 15.2%; odds ratio, 0.43 [95% CI, 0.28-0.68]; P < .001; absolute risk difference, -6.6 [95% CI, -10.7 to -2.6] percentage points). Five deaths attributed to COVID-19 were reported by day 57; all occurred in the placebo group. Among 1175 participants who received study product (safety population), the rate of participants with adverse events was 20.1% in the bamlanivimab group and 18.9% in the placebo group. The most common adverse events were urinary tract infection (reported by 12 participants [2%] who received bamlanivimab and 14 [2.4%] who received placebo) and hypertension (reported by 7 participants [1.2%] who received bamlanivimab and 10 [1.7%] who received placebo).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among residents and staff in skilled nursing and assisted living facilities, treatment during August-November 2020 with bamlanivimab monotherapy reduced the incidence of COVID-19 infection. Further research is needed to assess preventive efficacy with current patterns of viral strains with combination monoclonal antibody therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04497987.

HIV-1 Transmission linkages among persons with incident infection to inform public health surveillance

BACKGROUND

We evaluated features of HIV transmission networks involving persons diagnosed during incident HIV infection (IHI) to assess network-based opportunities to curtail onward transmission.

METHODS

Transmission networks were constructed using partial pol sequences reported to North Carolina surveillance among persons with recent (2014-2018) and past (<2014) HIV diagnoses. IHI were defined as documented acute infections or seroconversion. Demographic and virologic features of HIV genetic clusters (<1.5% pairwise genetic distance) involving ≥ 1 IHI were assessed. Persons with viral genetic links and who had diagnoses >90 days prior to an IHI were further characterized. We assessed named partner outcomes among IHI index persons using contact tracing data.

FINDINGS

Of 4,405 HIV diagnoses 2014-2018 with sequences, there were 323 (7%) IHI index persons; most were male (88%), Black (65%), young (68% <30 years), and reported sex with men (MSM) risk (79%). Index persons were more likely to be cluster members compared to non-index persons diagnosed during the same period (72% vs. 49%). In total, 162 clusters were identified involving 233 IHI, 577 recent diagnoses, and 163 past diagnoses. Most IHI cases (53%) had viral linkages to ≥1 previously diagnosed person without evidence of HIV viral suppression in the year prior to the diagnosis of the IHI index. In contact tracing, only 53% IHI cases named an HIV-positive contact, resulting in 0.5 previously diagnosed persons detected per IHI investigated. When combined with viral analyses, the detection rate of viremic previously diagnosed persons increased to 1.3.

INTERPRETATION

Integrating public health with molecular epidemiology, revealed that more than half of IHI have viral links to persons with previously diagnosed unsuppressed HIV infection which was largely unrecognized by traditional contact tracing. Enhanced partner services to support engagement and retention in HIV care and improved case finding supported by rapid phylogenetic analysis are tools to substantially reduce onward HIV transmission.

Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Symptomatic COVID-19 Outpatients: Host, Disease, and Viral Correlates

BACKGROUND

While SARS-CoV-2 infectious virus isolation in outpatients with COVID-19 has been associated with viral RNA levels and symptom duration, little is known about the host, disease and viral determinants of infectious virus detection.

METHODS

COVID-19 adult outpatients were enrolled within 7 days of symptom onset. Clinical symptoms were recorded via patient diary. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected to quantitate SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and for infectious virus isolation in Vero E6-cells. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured in serum using a validated ELISA assay.

RESULTS

Among 204 participants with mild-to-moderate symptomatic COVID19, the median nasopharyngeal viral RNA was 6.5 (IQR 4.7-7.6 log10 copies/mL), and 26% had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgA, IgM, IgG, and/or total Ig) at baseline. Infectious virus was recovered in 7% of participants with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies compared to 58% of participants without antibodies (probability ratio (PR)=0.12, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.36; p=0.00016). Infectious virus isolation was also associated with higher levels of viral RNA (mean RNA difference +2.6 log10, 95% CI: 2.2, 3.0; p<0.0001) and fewer days since symptom onset (PR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.88 per day; p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is strongly associated with clearance of infectious virus isolation. Seropositivity and viral RNA levels are likely more reliable markers of infectious virus clearance than subjective measure of COVID-19 symptom duration. Virus-targeted treatment and prevention strategies should be administered as early as possible and ideally before seroconversion.

CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER

NCT04405570.

Subcutaneous REGEN-COV Antibody Combination for Covid-19 Prevention

Background

Casirivimab and imdevimab (REGEN-COV™) markedly reduces risk of hospitalization or death in high-risk individuals with Covid-19. Here we explore the possibility that subcutaneous REGEN-COV prevents SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent Covid-19 in individuals at high risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 by close exposure in a household with a documented SARS-CoV-2-infected individual.

Methods

Individuals ≥12 years were enrolled within 96 hours of a household contact being diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 and randomized 1:1 to receive 1200 mg REGEN-COV or placebo via subcutaneous injection. The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion of participants without evidence of infection (SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR-negative) or prior immunity (seronegative) who subsequently developed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during a 28-day efficacy assessment period.

Results

Subcutaneous REGEN-COV significantly prevented symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with placebo (81.4% risk reduction; 11/753 [1.5%] vs. 59/752 [7.8%], respectively; P<0.0001), with 92.6% risk reduction after the first week (2/753 [0.3%] vs. 27/752 [3.6%], respectively). REGEN-COV also prevented overall infections, either symptomatic or asymptomatic (66.4% risk reduction). Among infected participants, the median time to resolution of symptoms was 2 weeks shorter with REGEN-COV vs. placebo (1.2 vs. 3.2 weeks, respectively), and the duration of time with high viral load (>104 copies/mL) was lower (0.4 vs. 1.3 weeks, respectively). REGEN-COV was generally well tolerated.

Conclusions

Administration of subcutaneous REGEN-COV prevented symptomatic Covid-19 and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in uninfected household contacts of infected individuals. Among individuals who became infected, REGEN-COV reduced the duration of symptomatic disease, decreased maximal viral load, and reduced the duration of detectable virus.(ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04452318.).

Molnupiravir, an Oral Antiviral Treatment for COVID-19

Background

Easily distributed oral antivirals are urgently needed to treat coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), prevent progression to severe illness, and block transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We report the results of a Phase 2a trial evaluating the safety, tolerability, and antiviral efficacy of molnupiravir in the treatment of COVID-19 ( ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04405570 ).

Methods

Eligible participants included outpatients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptom onset within 7 days. Participants were randomized 1:1 to 200 mg molnupiravir or placebo, or 3:1 to molnupiravir (400 or 800 mg) or placebo, twice-daily for 5 days. Antiviral activity was assessed as time to undetectable levels of viral RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and time to elimination of infectious virus isolation from nasopharyngeal swabs.

Results

Among 202 treated participants, virus isolation was significantly lower in participants receiving 800 mg molnupiravir (1.9%) versus placebo (16.7%) at Day 3 (p = 0.02). At Day 5, virus was not isolated from any participants receiving 400 or 800 mg molnupiravir, versus 11.1% of those receiving placebo (p = 0.03). Time to viral RNA clearance was decreased and a greater proportion overall achieved clearance in participants administered 800 mg molnupiravir versus placebo (p = 0.01). Molnupiravir was generally well tolerated, with similar numbers of adverse events across all groups.

Conclusions

Molnupiravir is the first oral, direct-acting antiviral shown to be highly effective at reducing nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 infectious virus and viral RNA and has a favorable safety and tolerability profile.

Syndromes Associated with Sexually Transmitted Infections in Lilongwe, Malawi: Burden and Trends, 2006 to 2015

ABSTRACT

Monitoring the burden of and trends in sexually transmitted infection syndromes is useful in informing syndromic management guidelines. Among sexually transmitted infection clinic patients in Lilongwe, Malawi, between 2006 and 2015, genital discharge, lower abdominal pain, and genital ulcer syndromes were common. Prevalence of most syndromes remained stable during the 10-year period.

Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Infection to Prevent COVID-19 Progression

As of March 2021, COVID-19 has caused more than 123 million infections, and almost 3 million deaths worldwide. Dramatic advances have been made in vaccine development and non-pharmaceutical interventions to stop the spread of infection. But treatments to stop the progression of disease are limited. A wide variety of "repurposed" drugs explored for treatment of COVID-19 have had little or no benefit. More recently, intravenous monoclonal antibody (mAb) combinations have been authorized by the US FDA for emergency use (EUA) for outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 including some active against emerging SARS-COV-2 variants of concern (VOC). Easier to administer therapeutics including intramuscular and subcutaneous mAbs and oral antivirals are in clinical trials. Reliable, safe, effective COVID-19 treatment for early infection in the outpatient setting is of urgent and critical importance. Availability of such treatment should lead to reduced progression of COVID-19.

A Phase 2b Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VRC01 Broadly Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody in Reducing Acquisition of HIV-1 Infection in Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: Baseline Findings

BACKGROUND

HIV Vaccine Trials Network 703/HIV Prevention Trials Network 081 is a phase 2b randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of passively infused monoclonal antibody VRC01 in preventing HIV acquisition in heterosexual women between the ages of 18 and 50 years at risk of HIV. Participants were enrolled at 20 sites in Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. It is one of the 2 Antibody Mediated Prevention efficacy trials, with HIV Vaccine Trials Network 704/HIV Prevention Trials Network 085, evaluating VRC01 for HIV prevention.

METHODS

Intense community engagement was used to optimize participant recruitment and retention. Participants were randomly assigned to receive intravenous VRC01 10 mg/kg, VRC01 30 mg/kg, or placebo in a 1:1:1 ratio. Infusions were given every 8 weeks with a total of 10 infusions and 104 weeks of follow-up after the first infusion.

RESULTS

Between May 2016 and September 2018, 1924 women from sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled. The median age was 26 years (interquartile range: 22-30), and 98.9% were Black. Sexually transmitted infection prevalence at enrollment included chlamydia (16.9%), trichomonas (7.2%), gonorrhea (5.7%), and syphilis (2.2%). External condoms (83.2%) and injectable contraceptives (61.1%) were the methods of contraception most frequently used by participants. In total, through April 3, 2020, 38,490 clinic visits were completed with a retention rate of 96% and 16,807 infusions administered with an adherence rate of 98%.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof-of-concept, large-scale monoclonal antibody study demonstrates the feasibility of conducting complex trials involving intravenous infusions in high incidence populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Feasibility and Successful Enrollment in a Proof-of-Concept HIV Prevention Trial of VRC01, a Broadly Neutralizing HIV-1 Monoclonal Antibody

BACKGROUND

The Antibody-Mediated Prevention trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081) are the first efficacy trials to evaluate whether VRC01, a broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody targeting the CD4-binding site of the HIV envelope protein, prevents sexual transmission of HIV-1. HVTN 704/HPTN 085 enrolled 2701 cisgender men and transgender (TG) individuals who have sex with men at 26 sites in Brazil, Peru, Switzerland, and the United States.

METHODS

Participants were recruited and retained through early, extensive community engagement. Eligible participants were randomized 1:1:1 to 10 mg/kg or 30 mg/kg of VRC01 or saline placebo. Visits occurred monthly, with intravenous (IV) infusions every 8 weeks over 2 years, for a total of 10 infusions. Participants were followed for 104 weeks after first infusion.

RESULTS

The median HVTN 704/HPTN 085 participant age was 28 years; 99% were assigned male sex; 90% identified as cisgender men, 5% as TG women and the remaining as other genders. Thirty-two percent were White, 15% Black, and 57% Hispanic/Latinx. Twenty-eight percent had a sexually transmitted infection at enrollment. More than 23,000 infusions were administered with no serious IV administration complications. Overall, retention and adherence to the study schedule exceeded 90%, and the dropout rate was below 10% annually (7.3 per 100 person-years) through week 80, the last visit for the primary end point.

CONCLUSIONS

HVTN 704/HPTN 085 exceeded accrual and retention expectations. With exceptional safety of IV administration and operational feasibility, it paves the way for future large-scale monoclonal antibody trials for HIV prevention and/or treatment.

Prioritizing studies of COVID-19 and lessons learned

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 altered research in Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) hubs in an unprecedented manner, leading to adjustments for COVID-19 research.

METHODS

CTSA members volunteered to conduct a review on the impact of CTSA network on COVID-19 pandemic with the assistance from NIH survey team in October 2020. The survey questions included the involvement of CTSAs in decision-making concerning the prioritization of COVID-19 studies. Descriptive and statistical analyses were conducted to analyze the survey data.

RESULTS

60 of the 64 CTSAs completed the survey. Most CTSAs lacked preparedness but promptly responded to the pandemic. Early disruption of research triggered, enhanced CTSA engagement, creation of dedicated research areas and triage for prioritization of COVID-19 studies. CTSAs involvement in decision-making were 16.75 times more likely to create dedicated diagnostic laboratories (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.17-129.39; P < 0.01). Likewise, institutions with internal funding were 3.88 times more likely to establish COVID-19 dedicated research (95% CI = 1.12-13.40; P < 0.05). CTSAs were instrumental in securing funds and facilitating establishment of laboratory/clinical spaces for COVID-19 research. Workflow was modified to support contracting and IRB review at most institutions with CTSAs. To mitigate chaos generated by competing clinical trials, central feasibility committees were often formed for orderly review/prioritization.

CONCLUSIONS

The lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic emphasize the pivotal role of CTSAs in prioritizing studies and establishing the necessary research infrastructure, and the importance of prompt and flexible research leadership with decision-making capacity to manage future pandemics.

A randomized controlled trial evaluating combination detection of HIV in Malawian sexually transmitted infections clinics

INTRODUCTION

HIV diagnosis is the necessary first step towards HIV care initiation, yet many persons living with HIV (PLWH) remain undiagnosed. Employing multiple HIV testing strategies in tandem could increase HIV detection and promote linkage to care. We aimed to assess an intervention to improve HIV detection within socio-sexual networks of PLWH in two sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate an intervention combining acute HIV infection (AHI) screening, contract partner notification and social contact referral versus the Malawian standard of care: serial rapid serological HIV tests and passive partner referral. Enrolment occurred between 2015 and 2019. HIV-seropositive persons (two positive rapid tests) were randomized to the trial arms and HIV-seronegative (one negative rapid test) and -serodiscordant (one positive test followed by a negative confirmatory test) persons were screened for AHI with HIV RNA testing. Those found to have AHI were offered enrolment into the intervention arm. Our primary outcome of interest was the number of new HIV diagnoses made per index participant within participants' sexual and social networks. We also calculated total persons, sexual partners and PLWH (including those previously diagnosed) referred per index participant.

RESULTS

A total of 1230 HIV-seropositive persons were randomized to the control arm, and 561 to the intervention arm. Another 12,713 HIV-seronegative or -serodiscordant persons underwent AHI screening, resulting in 136 AHI cases, of whom 94 enrolled into the intervention arm. The intervention increased the number of new HIV diagnoses made per index participant versus the control (ratio: 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 3.1). The intervention also increased the numbers of persons (ratio: 2.5; 95% CI: 2.0 to 3.2), sexual partners (ratio: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.0) and PLWH (ratio: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.7 to 3.2) referred per index participant.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining three distinct HIV testing and referral strategies increased the detection of previously undiagnosed HIV infections within the socio-sexual networks of PLWH seeking STI care. Combination HIV detection strategies that leverage AHI screening and socio-sexual contact networks offer a novel and efficacious approach to increasing HIV status awareness.

Characterization of HIV infection in cisgender men and transgender women who have sex with men receiving injectable cabotegravir for HIV prevention: HPTN 083

INTRODUCTION

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial demonstrated that long-acting cabotegravir (CAB-LA) was more effective than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV prevention in cisgender men and transgender women who have sex with men. We characterized HIV infections that occurred in the blinded phase of HPTN 083.

METHODS

Retrospective testing included HIV testing, viral load testing, quantification of study drugs and HIV drug resistance testing.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight infections were evaluated, including 51 incident infections (12 CAB, 39 TDF/FTC). In many cases (5 CAB, 37 TDF/FTC), infection was associated with low or unquantifiable study drug concentrations. In four cases, infection occurred with on-time CAB-LA injections and expected plasma CAB concentrations. CAB exposure was associated with prolonged viral suppression and delayed antibody expression. In some cases, delayed HIV diagnosis resulted in CAB provision to participants with undetected infection, delayed antiretroviral treatment (ART), and emergence of drug resistance; most of these infections would have been detected earlier with viral load testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection of HIV infection and prompt ART initiation could improve clinical outcomes in persons who become infected despite CAB-LA prophylaxis. Further studies are needed to elucidate the correlates of HIV protection in persons receiving CAB-LA.

Two Randomized Trials of Neutralizing Antibodies to Prevent HIV-1 Acquisition

BACKGROUND

Whether a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) can be used to prevent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition is unclear.

METHODS

We enrolled at-risk cisgender men and transgender persons in the Americas and Europe in the HVTN 704/HPTN 085 trial and at-risk women in sub-Saharan Africa in the HVTN 703/HPTN 081 trial. Participants were randomly assigned to receive, every 8 weeks, infusions of a bnAb (VRC01) at a dose of either 10 or 30 mg per kilogram (low-dose group and high-dose group, respectively) or placebo, for 10 infusions in total. HIV-1 testing was performed every 4 weeks. The VRC01 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80) of acquired isolates was measured with the TZM-bl assay.

RESULTS

Adverse events were similar in number and severity among the treatment groups within each trial. Among the 2699 participants in HVTN 704/HPTN 085, HIV-1 infection occurred in 32 in the low-dose group, 28 in the high-dose group, and 38 in the placebo group. Among the 1924 participants in HVTN 703/HPTN 081, infection occurred in 28 in the low-dose group, 19 in the high-dose group, and 29 in the placebo group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years in HVTN 704/HPTN 085 was 2.35 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 2.98 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.7 to 51.8; P = 0.15), and the incidence per 100 person-years in HVTN 703/HPTN 081 was 2.49 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 3.10 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 8.8%; 95% CI, -45.1 to 42.6; P = 0.70). In prespecified analyses pooling data across the trials, the incidence of infection with VRC01-sensitive isolates (IC80 <1 μg per milliliter) per 100 person-years was 0.20 among VRC01 recipients and 0.86 among placebo recipients (estimated prevention efficacy, 75.4%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 88.9). The prevention efficacy against sensitive isolates was similar for each VRC01 dose and trial; VRC01 did not prevent acquisition of other HIV-1 isolates.

CONCLUSIONS

VRC01 did not prevent overall HIV-1 acquisition more effectively than placebo, but analyses of VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 isolates provided proof-of-concept that bnAb prophylaxis can be effective. (Supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02716675 and NCT02568215.).

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

Evaluation of Phylogenetic Methods for Inferring the Direction of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052

BACKGROUND

Phylogenetic analysis can be used to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in populations. We inferred the direction of HIV transmission using whole-genome HIV sequences from couples with known linked infection and known transmission direction.

METHODS

Complete next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were obtained for 105 unique index-partner sample pairs from 32 couples enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 study (up to 2 samples/person). Index samples were obtained up to 5.5 years before partner infection; partner samples were obtained near the time of seroconversion. The bioinformatics method, phyloscanner, was used to infer transmission direction. Analyses were performed using samples from individual sample pairs, samples from all couples (1 sample/person; group analysis), and all available samples (multisample group analysis). Analysis was also performed using NGS data from defined regions of the HIV genome (gag, pol, env).

RESULTS

Using whole-genome NGS data, transmission direction was inferred correctly (index to partner) for 98 of 105 (93.3%) of the individual sample pairs, 99 of 105 (94.3%) sample pairs using group analysis, and 31 of the 32 couples (96.9%) using multisample group analysis. There were no cases where the incorrect transmission direction (partner to index) was inferred. The accuracy of the method was higher with greater time between index and partner sample collection. Pol region sequences performed better than env or gag sequences for inferring transmission direction.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate the potential of a phylogenetic method to infer the direction of HIV transmission between 2 individuals using whole-genome and pol NGS data.

Identification of Novel UGT1A1 Variants Including UGT1A1 454C>A through the Genotyping of Healthy Participants of the HPTN 077 Study

Cabotegravir (CAB) is an integrase strand-transfer inhibitor of HIV that has proven effective for HIV treatment and prevention in a long-acting injectable formulation, typically preceded by an oral formulation lead-in phase. Previous in vitro studies have demonstrated that CAB is primarily metabolized via glucuronidation by uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A1 and 1A9. In this study, we performed next-generation sequencing of genomic DNA isolated from the HPTN 077 participants to explore the variants within UGT1A1 and UGT1A9. Additionally, to enable correlation of UGT1A1 and UGT1A9 genotypes with plasma CAB-glucuronide levels, we quantified glucuronidated CAB following both oral administration of CAB and intramuscular injection of long-acting CAB. From these studies, 48 previously unreported variants of UGT1A1 and UGT1A9 were detected. Notably, 5/68 individuals carried a UGT1A1 454C>A variant that resulted in amino acid substitution P152T, and the use of in silico tools predicted a deleterious effect of the P152T substitution. Thus, the impact of this mutant on a range of UGT1A1 substrates was tested using a COS-7 cell-based assay. The glucuronide conjugates of CAB, dolutegravir, and raltegravir, were not formed in the COS-7 cells expressing the UGT1A1 P152T mutant. Further, formation of glucuronides of raloxifene and 7-ethyl-10-hydroxycamptothecin were reduced in the cells expressing the UGT1A1 P152T mutant. Using the same approach, we tested the activities of two UGT1A9 mutants, UGT1A9 H217Y and UGT1A9 R464G, and found that these mutations were tolerated and decreased function, respectively. These data provide insight into previously unreported genetic variants of UGT1A1 and UGT1A9.

Cabotegravir Is Not Associated With Weight Gain in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-uninfected Individuals in HPTN 077

Studies in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals suggest excess weight gain with integrase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy. The HIV Prevention Trials Network Study 077 evaluated changes in weight and fasting metabolic parameters in HIV-uninfected individuals randomized to cabotegravir or a placebo. No differences between arms were found for change in weight or fasting metabolic parameters overall or for subgroups.

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

Several candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known.

METHODS

Following vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease.

RESULTS

Post-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.

Assessing the use of surveillance data to estimate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in cluster-randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

In cluster-randomized controlled trials (C-RCTs) of HIV prevention strategies, HIV incidence is expensive to measure directly. Surveillance data on HIV diagnoses or viral suppression could provide cheaper incidence estimates. We used mathematical modelling to evaluate whether these measures can replace HIV incidence measurement in C-RCTs.

METHODS

We used a US HIV transmission model to simulate C-RCTs of expanded antiretroviral therapy(ART), pre-exposure prophylaxis(PrEP) and HIV testing, together or alone. We tested whether modelled reductions in total new HIV diagnoses, diagnoses with acute infection, diagnoses with early infection(CD4 > 500 cells/μl), diagnoses adjusted for testing volume, or the proportion virally non-suppressed, reflected HIV incidence reductions.

RESULTS

Over a two-year trial expanding PrEP alone, modelled reductions in total diagnoses underestimated incidence reductions by a median six percentage points(pp), with acceptable variability(95 % credible interval -14,-2pp). For trials expanding HIV testing alone or alongside ART + PrEP, greater, highly variable bias was seen[-20pp(-128,-1) and -30pp(-134,-16), respectively]. Acceptable levels of bias were only seen over longer trial durations when levels of awareness of HIV-positive status were already high. Expanding ART alone, only acute and early diagnoses reductions reflected incidence reduction well, with some bias[-3pp(-6,-1) and -8pp(-16,-3), respectively]. Early and adjusted diagnoses also reliably reflected incidence when scaling up PrEP alone[bias -5pp(-11,1) and 10pp(3,18), respectively]. For trials expanding testing (alone or with ART + PrEP), bias for all measures explored was too variable for them to replace direct incidence measures, unless using diagnoses when HIV status awareness was already high.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance measures based on HIV diagnoses may sometimes be adequate surrogates for HIV incidence reduction in C-RCTs expanding ART or PrEP only, if adjusted for bias. However, all surveillance measures explored failed to approximate HIV incidence reductions for C-RCTs expanding HIV testing, unless levels of awareness of HIV-positive status were already high.

Effects of Urethritis on HIV in Semen: Implications for HIV Prevention and Cure

BACKGROUND

Prior to the widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART), Men living with HIV with urethritis had increased concentration of HIV in semen. This study aims to better evaluate HIV shedding in men with urethritis receiving ART, and implications for the cure of HIV.

METHODS

Men living with HIV with urethritis taking ART ≥12 weeks were enrolled at a sexually transmitted infections clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi. Study follow-up included visits 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24, 36, and 48 weeks post urethritis diagnosis and treatment. Matched blood and semen samples were collected at all visits, and all additional episodes of urethritis were followed with extra visits 1, 2, and 4 weeks after treatment.

RESULTS

111 men enrolled in the study between January 2017 - March 2019, and 77 (69%) were suppressed in the blood (<400 copies/mL). Among the 77 men, 87 episodes of urethritis were evaluated during follow-up. Of the 87 episodes, 15 episodes (17%) had instances of seminal viral shedding ≥400 copies/mL despite viral suppression in the blood. At follow-up of non-urethritis episodes, ≤6% of men at each visit had a viral load ≥400 copies/mL in the semen while maintaining viral suppression in the blood.

CONCLUSIONS

An HIV cure requires the elimination of HIV from every body compartment, but available ART does not currently accomplish this. Our study highlights the male genital tract as a local source of HIV that can be reversibly activated. A better understanding of this phenomenon is important to advance the HIV cure field.