Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction

AIM

Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios.

LOCATION

The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

METHODS

We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.

Population genomic data in spider mites point to a role for local adaptation in shaping range shifts

Local adaptation is particularly likely in invertebrate pests that typically have short generation times and large population sizes, but there are few studies on pest species investigating local adaptation and separating this process from contemporaneous and historical gene flow. Here, we use a population genomic approach to investigate evolutionary processes in the two most dominant spider mites in China, Tetranychus truncatus Ehara and Tetranychus pueraricola Ehara et Gotoh, which have wide distributions, short generation times, and large population sizes. We generated genome resequencing of 246 spider mites mostly from China, as well as Japan and Canada at a combined total depth of 3,133×. Based on demographic reconstruction, we found that both mite species likely originated from refugia in southwestern China and then spread to other regions, with the dominant T. truncatus spreading ~3,000 years later than T. pueraricola. Estimated changes in population sizes of the pests matched known periods of glaciation and reinforce the recent expansion of the dominant spider mites. T. truncatus showed a greater extent of local adaptation with more genes (76 vs. 17) associated with precipitation, including candidates involved in regulation of homeostasis of water and ions, signal transduction, and motor skills. In both species, many genes (135 in T. truncatus and 95 in T. pueraricola) also showed signatures of selection related to elevation, including G-protein-coupled receptors, cytochrome P450s, and ABC-transporters. Our results point to historical expansion processes and climatic adaptation in these pests which could have contributed to their growing importance, particularly in the case of T. truncatus.

Opposing life stage-specific effects of ocean warming at source and sink populations of range-shifting coral-reef fishes

Climate change is altering the latitudinal distributions of species, with their capacity to keep pace with a shifting climate depending on the stochastic expression of population growth rates, and the influence of compensatory density feedback on age-specific survival rates. We use population-abundance time series at the leading edge of an expanding species' range to quantify the contribution of stochastic environmental drivers and density feedbacks to the dynamics of life stage-specific population growth. Using a tropical, range-shifting Indo-Pacific damselfish (Abudefduf vaigiensis) as a model organism, we applied variants of the phenomenological Gompertz-logistic model to a 14-year dataset to quantify the relative importance of density feedback and stochastic environmental drivers on the separate and aggregated population growth rates of settler and juvenile life stages. The top-ranked models indicated that density feedback negatively affected the growth of tropical settlers and juveniles. Rates of settlement were negatively linked to temperatures experienced by parents at potential source populations in the tropics, but their subsequent survival and that of juveniles increased with the temperatures experienced at the temperate sink. Including these stochastic effects doubled the deviance explained by the models, corroborating an important role of temperature. By incorporating sea-surface temperature projections for the remainder of this century into these models, we anticipate improved conditions for the population growth of juvenile coral-reef fishes, but not for settlers in temperate ecosystems. Previous research has highlighted the association between temperature and the redistribution of species. Our analyses reveal the contrasting roles of different life stages in the dynamics of range-shifting species responding to climate change, as they transition from vagrancy to residency in their novel ranges.

Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, Family Reduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species

AIM

A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributed Phymata species in light of anthropogenic climate change.

LOCATION

North America.

TAXON

Phymata americana Melin 1930 and Phymata pennsylvanica Handlirsch 1897, Family: Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera.

METHODS

We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of two Phymata species, Phymata americana and Phymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the two Phymata species was calculated.

RESULTS

The strongest predictor to P. americana ranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors of P. pennsylvanica ranges. Future ranges for P. americana are predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO2 concentrations. Suitable ranges for P. pennsylvanica are predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

These evidences for different environmental requirements for P. americana and P. pennsylvanica account for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.

The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes

Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.

Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral-reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change

Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life-history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life-history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16-year dataset of 35 range-extending coral-reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range-shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species' ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.

Killer whale abundance and predicted narwhal consumption in the Canadian Arctic

Range expansions and increases in the frequency of killer whale (Orcinus orca) sightings have been documented in the eastern Canadian Arctic, presumably the result of climate change-related sea-ice declines. However, the effects of increased predator occurrence on this marine ecosystem remain largely unknown. We explore the consequences of climate change-related range expansions by a top predator by estimating killer whale abundance and their possible consumptive effects on narwhal (Monodon monoceros) in the Canadian Arctic. Individual killer whales can be identified using characteristics such as acquired scars and variation in the shape and size of their dorsal fins. Capture-mark-recapture analysis of 63 individually identifiable killer whales photographed between 2009 and 2018 suggests a population size of 163 ± 27. This number of killer whales could consume >1,000 narwhal during their seasonal residency in Arctic waters. The effects of such mortality at the ecosystem level are uncertain, but trophic cascades caused by top predators, including killer whales, have been documented elsewhere. These findings illustrate the magnitude of ecosystem-level modifications that can occur with climate change-related shifts in predator distributions.

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, populations of neotropical migratory birds in North America have plummeted while populations of resident species have largely remained stable. We show that resident and migratory birds in eastern North America have responded differently to climate change over this period, with the ranges of resident species expanding along their northern margin while the ranges of migratory species have contracted at their southern margin. These results suggest that the ability to colonize newly suitable areas may make resident species resilient to future climate change but that climate-induced range contractions may make neotropical migrants vulnerable to these changes.

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Growing-season length and soil microbes influence the performance of a generalist bunchgrass beyond its current range

As organisms shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change, biotic interactions have emerged as an important factor driving the rate and success of range expansions. Plant-microbe interactions are an understudied but potentially important factor governing plant range shifts. We studied the distribution and function of microbes present in high-elevation unvegetated soils, areas that plants are colonizing as climate warms, snow melts earlier, and the summer growing season lengthens. Using a manipulative snowpack and microbial inoculation transplant experiment, we tested the hypothesis that growing-season length and microbial community composition interact to control plant elevational range shifts. We predicted that a lengthening growing season combined with dispersal to patches of soils with more mutualistic microbes and fewer pathogenic microbes would facilitate plant survival and growth in previously unvegetated areas. We identified negative effects on survival of the common alpine bunchgrass Deschampsia cespitosa in both short and long growing seasons, suggesting an optimal growing-season length for plant survival in this system that balances time for growth with soil moisture levels. Importantly, growing-season length and microbes interacted to affect plant survival and growth, such that microbial community composition increased in importance in suboptimal growing-season lengths. Further, plants grown with microbes from unvegetated soils grew as well or better than plants grown with microbes from vegetated soils. These results suggest that the rate and spatial extent of plant colonization of unvegetated soils in mountainous areas experiencing climate change could depend on both growing-season length and soil microbial community composition, with microbes potentially playing more important roles as growing seasons lengthen.

Asynchronous range shifts drive alpine plant-pollinator interactions and reduce plant fitness

Climate change is driving species' range shifts, which are in turn disrupting species interactions due to species-specific differences in their abilities to migrate in response to climate. We evaluated the consequences of asynchronous range shifts in an alpine plant-pollinator community by transplanting replicated alpine meadow turfs downslope along an elevational gradient thereby introducing them to warmer climates and novel plant and pollinator communities. We asked how these novel plant-pollinator interactions affect plant reproduction. We found that pollinator communities differed substantially across the elevation/temperature gradient, suggesting that these plants will likely interact with different pollinator communities with warming climate. Contrary to the expectation that floral visitation would increase monotonically with warmer temperatures at lower elevations, visitation rate to the transplanted communities peaked under intermediate warming at midelevation sites. In contrast, visitation rate generally increased with temperature for the local, lower elevation plant communities surrounding the experimental alpine turfs. For two of three focal plant species in the transplanted high-elevation community, reproduction declined at warmer sites. For these species, reproduction appears to be dependent on pollinator identity such that reduced reproduction may be attributable to decreased visitation from key pollinator species, such as bumble bees, at warmer sites. Reproduction in the third focal species appears to be primarily driven by overall pollinator visitation rate, regardless of pollinator identity. Taken together, the results suggest climate warming can indirectly affect plant reproduction via changes in plant-pollinator interactions. More broadly, the experiment provides a case study for predicting the outcome of novel species interactions formed under changing climates.

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re-energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range-limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors-climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale-interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.

Trophic niche segregation allows range-extending coral reef fishes to co-exist with temperate species under climate change

Changing climate is forcing many terrestrial and marine species to extend their ranges poleward to stay within the bounds of their thermal tolerances. However, when such species enter higher latitude ecosystems, they engage in novel interactions with local species, such as altered predator-prey dynamics and competition for food. Here, we evaluate the trophic overlap between range-extending and local fish species along the east coast of temperate Australia, a hotspot for ocean warming and species range extensions. Stable isotope ratios (δ¹⁵ N and δ¹³ C) of muscle tissue and stomach content analysis were used to quantify overlap of trophic niche space between vagrant tropical and local temperate fish communities along a 730 km (6°) latitudinal gradient. Our study shows that in recipient temperate ecosystems, sympatric tropical and temperate species do not overlap significantly in their diet-even though they forage on broadly similar prey groups-and are therefore unlikely to compete for trophic niche space. The tropical and temperate species we studied, which are commonly found in shallow-water coastal environments, exhibited moderately broad niche breadths and local-scale dietary plasticity, indicating trophic generalism. We posit that because these species are generalists, they can co-exist under current climate change, facilitating the existence of novel community structures.

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.

Local cold adaption increases the thermal window of temperate mussels in the Arctic

Species expand towards higher latitudes in response to climate warming, but the pace of this expansion is related to the physiological capacity to resist cold stress. However, few studies exist that have quantified the level of inter-population local adaptation in marine species freeze tolerance, especially in the Arctic. We investigated the importance of cold adaptation and thermal window width towards high latitudes from the temperate to the Arctic region. We measured upper and lower lethal air temperatures (i.e. LT and LT50) in temperate and Arctic populations of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), and analysed weather data and membrane fatty acid compositions, following emersion simulations. Both populations had similar upper LT (~38 °C), but Arctic mussels survived 4°C colder air temperatures than temperate mussels (-13 vs. -9°C, respectively), corresponding to an 8% increase in their thermal window. There were strong latitudinal relationships between thermal window width and local air temperatures, indicating Arctic mussels are highly adapted to the Arctic environment where the seasonal temperature span exceeds 60°C. Local adaptation and local habitat heterogeneity thus allow leading-edge M. edulis to inhabit high Arctic intertidal zones. This intraspecific pattern provides insight into the importance of accounting for cold adaptation in climate change, conservation and biogeographic studies.

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high-resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery-independent and -dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems-the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate-driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature-based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature-based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.

Migration of soil microbes may promote tree seedling tolerance to drying conditions

Soil-microbe interactions have the potential to mediate the ability of tree populations to persist in their current location or establish in new areas. Immigration of microbial taxa from drier conditions may promote seedling tolerance to drying climates. In a greenhouse experiment, we determined seedling performance of Ostrya virginiana and Betula nigra seedlings after experimentally swapping sterilized soils and local and foreign microbial inocula from nine sites over a gradient of precipitation and soil types, in well-watered and water reduced conditions. Swapping microbial inocula relative to abiotic soils along latitudinal, but not longitudinal, gradients resulted in reduced seedling biomass. Additionally, growth in water reduced conditions was maximized when pots were inoculated with microbes from drier sites. These results suggest that extirpation of local microbial taxa, and/or immigration of novel microbial taxa to a site may be detrimental to plant growth due to mismatches between microbes and soil conditions. However, immigration of drought adapted microbial taxa may provide additional drought tolerance to plant populations facing drying conditions. This work contributes to the understanding of how microbial interactions may potentially exacerbate or mitigate challenges to plant populations caused by climate change.

Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

Population growth metrics such as R₀ are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species' range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R₀ may be misleading.

Thermoregulatory traits combine with range shifts to alter the future of montane ant assemblages

Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage-level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV-B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait-mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait-environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.

Microclimate and demography interact to shape stable population dynamics across the range of an alpine plant

Heterogeneous terrain in montane systems results in a decoupling of climatic gradients. Population dynamics across species' ranges in these heterogeneous landscapes are shaped by relationships between demographic rates and these interwoven climate gradients. Linking demography and climate variables across species' ranges refines our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of species' current and future ranges. We explored the importance of multiple microclimatic gradients in shaping individual demographic rates and population growth rates in 16 populations across the elevational distribution of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis). Using integral projection modeling, we ask how each rate varies across three microclimate gradients: accumulated degree-days, growing-season soil moisture, and days of snow cover. Range-wide variation in demographic rates was best explained by the combined influence of multiple microclimatic variables. Different pairs of demographic rates exhibited both similar and inverse responses to the same microclimatic gradient, and the microclimatic effects often varied with plant size. These responses resulted in range-wide projected population persistence, with no declining populations at either elevational range edge or at the extremes of the microclimate gradients. The complex relationships between topography, microclimate and demography suggest that populations across a species' range may have unique demographic pathways to stable population dynamics.

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2-week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.

Using insect natural history collections to study global change impacts: challenges and opportunities

Over the past two decades, natural history collections (NHCs) have played an increasingly prominent role in global change research, but they have still greater potential, especially for the most diverse group of animals on Earth: insects. Here, we review the role of NHCs in advancing our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses of insects to recent global changes. Insect NHCs have helped document changes in insects' geographical distributions, phenology, phenotypic and genotypic traits over time periods up to a century. Recent work demonstrates the enormous potential of NHCs data for examining insect responses at multiple temporal, spatial and phylogenetic scales. Moving forward, insect NHCs offer unique opportunities to examine the morphological, chemical and genomic information in each specimen, thus advancing our understanding of the processes underlying species' ecological and evolutionary responses to rapid, widespread global changes.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the anthropocene'.

Temperature-Driven Biodiversity Change: Disentangling Space and Time

Temperature regimes have multiple spatial and temporal dimensions that have different impacts on biodiversity. Signatures of warming across these dimensions may contribute uniquely to the large-scale species redistributions and abundance changes that underpin community dynamics. A comprehensive review of the literature reveals that 86% of studies were focused on community responses to temperature aggregated over spatial or temporal dimensions (e.g., mean, median, or extremes). Therefore, the effects of temperature variation in space and time on biodiversity remain generally unquantified. In the present article, we argue that this focus on aggregated temperature measures may limit advancing our understanding of how communities are being altered by climate change. In light of this, we map the cause-and-effect pathways between the different dimensions of temperature change and communities in space and time. A broadened focus, shifted toward a multidimensional perspective of temperature, will allow better interpretation and prediction of biodiversity change and more robust management and conservation strategies.

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming

Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950-2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species' effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.