Extinction risk of the world's freshwater mammals

The continued loss of freshwater habitats poses a significant threat to global biodiversity. We reviewed the extinction risk of 166 freshwater aquatic and semiaquatic mammals-a group rarely documented as a collective. We used the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species categories as of December 2021 to determine extinction risk. Extinction risk was then compared among taxonomic groups, geographic areas, and biological traits. Thirty percent of all freshwater mammals were listed as threatened. Decreasing population trends were common (44.0%), including a greater rate of decline (3.6% in 20 years) than for mammals or freshwater species as a whole. Aquatic freshwater mammals were at a greater risk of extinction than semiaquatic freshwater mammals (95% CI -7.20 to -1.11). Twenty-nine species were data deficient or not evaluated. Large species (95% CI 0.01 to 0.03) with large dispersal distances (95% CI 0.03 to 0.15) had a higher risk of extinction than small species with small dispersal distances. The number of threatening processes associated with a species compounded their risk of extinction (95% CI 0.28 to 0.77). Hunting, land clearing for logging and agriculture, pollution, residential development, and habitat modification or destruction from dams and water management posed the greatest threats to these species. The basic life-history traits of many species were poorly known, highlighting the need for more research. Conservation of freshwater mammals requires a host of management actions centered around increased protection of riparian areas and more conscientious water management to aid the recovery of threatened species.

Homo sapiens reached the higher latitudes of Europe by 45,000 years ago

The Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition in Europe is associated with the regional disappearance of Neanderthals and the spread of Homo sapiens. Late Neanderthals persisted in western Europe several millennia after the occurrence of H. sapiens in eastern Europe1. Local hybridization between the two groups occurred2, but not on all occasions3. Archaeological evidence also indicates the presence of several technocomplexes during this transition, complicating our understanding and the association of behavioural adaptations with specific hominin groups4. One such technocomplex for which the makers are unknown is the Lincombian-Ranisian-Jerzmanowician (LRJ), which has been described in northwestern and central Europe5-8. Here we present the morphological and proteomic taxonomic identification, mitochondrial DNA analysis and direct radiocarbon dating of human remains directly associated with an LRJ assemblage at the site Ilsenhöhle in Ranis (Germany). These human remains are among the earliest directly dated Upper Palaeolithic H. sapiens remains in Eurasia. We show that early H. sapiens associated with the LRJ were present in central and northwestern Europe long before the extinction of late Neanderthals in southwestern Europe. Our results strengthen the notion of a patchwork of distinct human populations and technocomplexes present in Europe during this transitional period.

Decline and fall of the Ediacarans: late-Neoproterozoic extinctions and the rise of the modern biosphere

The end-Neoproterozoic transition marked a gradual but permanent shift between distinct configurations of Earth's biosphere. This interval witnessed the demise of the enigmatic Ediacaran Biota, ushering in the structured trophic webs and disparate animal body plans of Phanerozoic ecosystems. However, little consensus exists on the reality, drivers, and macroevolutionary implications of end-Neoproterozoic extinctions. Here we evaluate potential drivers of late-Neoproterozoic turnover by addressing recent findings on Ediacaran geochronology, the persistence of classical Ediacaran macrobionts into the Cambrian, and the existence of Ediacaran crown-group eumetazoans. Despite renewed interest in the possibility of Phanerozoic-style 'mass extinctions' in the latest Neoproterozoic, our synthesis of the available evidence does not support extinction models based on episodic geochemical triggers, nor does it validate simple ecological interpretations centred on direct competitive displacement. Instead, we argue that the protracted and indirect effects of early bilaterian innovations, including escalations in sediment engineering, predation, and the largely understudied impacts of reef-building, may best account for the temporal structure and possible selectivity of late-Neoproterozoic extinctions. We integrate these processes into a generalised model of early eumetazoan-dominated ecologies, charting the disruption of spatial and temporal isotropy on the Ediacaran benthos as a consequence of diversifying macrofaunal interactions. Given the nature of resource distribution in Ediacaran ecologies, the continuities among Ediacaran and Cambrian faunas, and the convergent origins of ecologically disruptive innovations among bilaterians we suggest that the rise of Phanerozoic-type biotas may have been unstoppable.

Predator-induced prey dispersal can cause hump-shaped density-area relationships in prey populations

Predation can both reduce prey abundance directly (through density-dependent effects) and indirectly through prey trait-mediated effects. Over the years, many studies have focused on describing the density-area relationship (DAR). However, the mechanisms responsible for the DAR are not well understood. Loss and fragmentation of habitats, owing to human activities, creates landscape-level spatial heterogeneity wherein patches of varying size, isolation and quality are separated by a human-modified "matrix" of varying degrees of hostility and has been a primary driver of species extinctions and declining biodiversity. How matrix hostility in combination with trait-mediated effects influence DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence remains an open question. In this paper, we employ a theoretical spatially explicit predator-prey population model built upon the reaction-diffusion framework to explore effects of predator-induced emigration (trait-mediated emigration) and matrix hostility on DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence. Our results show that when trait-mediated response strength is sufficiently strong, ranges of patch size emerge where a nonlinear hump-shaped prey DAR is predicted and other ranges where coexistence is not possible. In a conservation perspective, DAR is crucial not only in deciding whether we should have one large habitat patch or several-small (SLOSS), but for understanding the minimum patch size that can support a viable population. Our study lends more credence to the possibility that predators can alter prey DAR through predator-induced prey dispersal.

Muller's genetic load/species extinction hypothesis

The genetic load hypothesis of Hermann Muller raised the profound question of possible species extinction, even for humans, following a prolonged accumulation of recessive genes due to ionizing radiation exposure within the population. Two major mouse radiation research teams in the United States provided the most extensive tests of Muller's hypothesis. One group continued its study for more than two decades, over 82 consecutive generations, approximating 2500 human years. Even though Muller had stressed for decades his fear of species-threatening effects, no significant effects were observed for related factors such as reproductive fitness and longevity. Yet, the paper presenting the data of the 82-generation negative study has only been cited five times in 45 years. Altogether numerous laboratories worldwide collected vast amounts of data on mice, rats, and swine in an unsuccessful attempt to see if there was convincing evidence to support the genetic load theory and claims that species might deteriorate or be rendered extinct. This paper re-examines Muller's genetic load hypothesis with a new evaluation of how that hypothesis was tested and the significance of the findings, with most of those studies being completed before the BEIR I Committee Report in 1972. That committee briefly discussed the available evidence, mostly ignoring those results as they proceeded to make hereditary risk estimates both for (1) the first generation after a radiation exposure and (2) for the time, in the distant future, when a hypothetical genetic equilibrium would be reached. Their estimates assumed accumulation of harmful mutations and a linear no-threshold dose response extending all of the way down to a single ionization. More recent data on induction by ionizing radiation of dominant mutations that affect the skeletons of mice provide further robust supporting evidence that the generationally cumulative and LNT-based assumptions underpinning Muller's genetic load hypothesis are not correct.

Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees

Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.

The demise of the giant ape Gigantopithecus blacki

The largest ever primate and one of the largest of the southeast Asian megafauna, Gigantopithecus blacki1, persisted in China from about 2.0 million years until the late middle Pleistocene when it became extinct2-4. Its demise is enigmatic considering that it was one of the few Asian great apes to go extinct in the last 2.6 million years, whereas others, including orangutan, survived until the present5. The cause of the disappearance of G. blacki remains unresolved but could shed light on primate resilience and the fate of megafauna in this region6. Here we applied three multidisciplinary analyses-timing, past environments and behaviour-to 22 caves in southern China. We used 157 radiometric ages from six dating techniques to establish a timeline for the demise of G. blacki. We show that from 2.3 million years ago the environment was a mosaic of forests and grasses, providing ideal conditions for thriving G. blacki populations. However, just before and during the extinction window between 295,000 and 215,000  years ago there was enhanced environmental variability from increased seasonality, which caused changes in plant communities and an increase in open forest environments. Although its close relative Pongo weidenreichi managed to adapt its dietary preferences and behaviour to this variability, G. blacki showed signs of chronic stress and dwindling populations. Ultimately its struggle to adapt led to the extinction of the greatest primate to ever inhabit the Earth.

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

The virtual brain endocast of Trogosus (Mammalia, Tillodontia) and its relevance in understanding the extinction of archaic placental mammals

After successfully diversifying during the Paleocene, the descendants of the first wave of mammals that survived the end-Cretaceous mass extinction waned throughout the Eocene. Competition with modern crown clades and intense climate fluctuations may have been part of the factors leading to the extinction of these archaic groups. Why these taxa went extinct has rarely been studied from the perspective of the nervous system. Here, we describe the first virtual endocasts for the archaic order Tillodontia. Three species from the middle Eocene of North America were analyzed: Trogosus hillsii, Trogosus grangeri, and Trogosus castoridens. We made morphological comparisons with the plaster endocast of another tillodont, Tillodon fodiens, as well as groups potentially related to Tillodontia: Pantodonta, Arctocyonidae, and Cimolesta. Trogosus shows very little inter-specific variation with the only potential difference being related to the fusion of the optic canal and sphenorbital fissure. Many ancestral features are displayed by Trogosus, including an exposed midbrain, small neocortex, orbitotemporal canal ventral to rhinal fissure, and a broad circular fissure. Potential characteristics that could unite Tillodontia with Pantodonta, and Arctocyonidae are the posterior position of cranial nerve V3 exit in relation to the cerebrum and the low degree of development of the subarcuate fossa. The presence of large olfactory bulbs and a relatively small neocortex are consistent with a terrestrial lifestyle. A relatively small neocortex may have put Trogosus at risk when competing with artiodactyls for potentially similar resources and avoiding predation from archaic carnivorans, both of which are known to have had larger relative brain and neocortex sizes in the Eocene. These factors may have possibly exacerbated the extinction of Tillodontia, which showed highly specialized morphologies despite the increase in climate fluctuations throughout the Eocene, before disappearing during the middle Eocene.

Ecological structure of diversity-dependent diversification in Phanerozoic marine bivalves

Rigorous analysis of diversity-dependence-the hypothesis that the rate of proliferation of new species is inversely related to standing diversity-requires consideration of the ecology of the organisms in question. Differences between infaunal marine bivalves (living entirely within the sediment) and epifaunal forms (living partially or completely above the sediment-water interface) predict that these major ecological groups should have different diversity dynamics: epifaunal species may compete more intensely for space and be more susceptible to predation and physical disturbance. By comparing detrended standing diversity with rates of diversification, origination, and extinction in this exceptional fossil record, we find that epifaunal bivalves experienced significant, negative diversity-dependence in origination and net diversification, whereas infaunal forms show little appreciable relationship between diversity and evolutionary rates. This macroevolutionary contrast is robust to the time span over which dynamics are analysed, whether mass-extinction rebounds are included in the analysis, the treatment of stratigraphic ranges that are not maximally resolved, and the details of detrending. We also find that diversity-dependence persists over hundreds of millions of years, even though diversity itself rises nearly exponentially, belying the notion that diversity-dependence must imply equilibrial diversity dynamics.

Speciation-by-Extinction

Extinction is a dominant force shaping patterns of biodiversity through time; however its role as a catalyst of speciation through its interaction with intraspecific variation has been overlooked. Here, we synthesize ideas alluded to by Darwin and others into the model of "speciation-by-extinction" in which speciation results from the extinction of intermediate populations within a single geographically variable species. We explore the properties and distinguishing features of speciation-by-extinction with respect to other established speciation models. We demonstrate its plausibility by showing that the experimental extinction of populations within variable species can result in speciation. The prerequisites for speciation-by-extinction, geographically structured intraspecific variation and local extinction, are ubiquitous in nature. We propose that speciation-by-extinction may be a prevalent, but underappreciated, speciation mechanism.

Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore

There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for "dark extinctions," i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.

Undiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves

Birds are among the best-studied animal groups, but their prehistoric diversity is poorly known due to low fossilization potential. Hence, while many human-driven bird extinctions (i.e., extinctions caused directly by human activities such as hunting, as well as indirectly through human-associated impacts such as land use change, fire, and the introduction of invasive species) have been recorded, the true number is likely much larger. Here, by combining recorded extinctions with model estimates based on the completeness of the fossil record, we suggest that at least ~1300-1500 bird species (~12% of the total) have gone extinct since the Late Pleistocene, with 55% of these extinctions undiscovered (not yet discovered or left no trace). We estimate that the Pacific accounts for 61% of total bird extinctions. Bird extinction rate varied through time with an intense episode ~1300 CE, which likely represents the largest human-driven vertebrate extinction wave ever, and a rate 80 (60-95) times the background extinction rate. Thus, humans have already driven more than one in nine bird species to extinction, with likely severe, and potentially irreversible, ecological and evolutionary consequences.

How success is evaluated in collaborative invasive species management: A systematic review

Invasive species are one of the most pressing global challenges for biodiversity and agriculture. They can cause species extinctions, ecosystem alterations, crop damage, and spread harmful diseases across broad regions. Overcoming this challenge requires collaborative management efforts that span multiple land tenures and jurisdictions. Despite evidence on the importance and approaches to collaboration, there is little understanding of how success is evaluated in the invasive species management literature. This is a major gap, considering evaluating success is crucial for enhancing the efficacy of future management projects. To overcome this knowledge gap, we systematically reviewed the published literature to identify the stages at which success is evaluated - that is, the Process stage (collaborative management actions and Processes), Outputs stage (results of management actions to protect environmental, economic, and social values) and Outcomes stage (effects of Outputs on environmental, economic, and social values) of collaborative invasive species management projects. We also assessed what indicators were used to identify success and whether these evaluations vary across different characteristics of collaborative invasive species management. Our literature search detected 1406 papers, of which 58 met our selection criteria. Out of these, the majority of papers evaluated success across two stages (n = 25, 43.1%), whereas only ten (17.2%) papers evaluated success across all stages. Outputs were the most commonly evaluated stage (n = 40, 68.9%). The most widely used indicators of success for these stages included increased collaboration of stakeholders (Process stage), the number of captured/eradicated/controlled invasive species (Outputs stage) and change in biodiversity values, such as the number of threatened species (Outcomes stage). Most indicators of success were environmentally focused. We highlight the need to align the indicators of success and evaluation stages with the fundamental objectives of the projects to increase the effectiveness of evaluations and thereby maximise the benefits of collaborative invasive species management.

The history of the Coast Salish "woolly dogs"

DNA and traditional knowledge reveal the history of an extinct dog bred for its wool.

Genomic analyses reveal poaching hotspots and illegal trade in pangolins from Africa to Asia

The white-bellied pangolin (Phataginus tricuspis) is the world's most trafficked mammal and is at risk of extinction. Reducing the illegal wildlife trade requires an understanding of its origins. Using a genomic approach for tracing confiscations and analyzing 111 samples collected from known geographic localities in Africa and 643 seized scales from Asia between 2012 and 2018, we found that poaching pressures shifted over time from West to Central Africa. Recently, Cameroon's southern border has emerged as a site of intense poaching. Using data from seizures representing nearly 1 million African pangolins, we identified Nigeria as one important hub for trafficking, where scales are amassed and transshipped to markets in Asia. This origin-to-destination approach offers new opportunities to disrupt the illegal wildlife trade and to guide anti-trafficking measures.

Contrasting terrestrial and marine ecospace dynamics after the end-Triassic mass extinction event

Mass extinctions have fundamentally altered the structure of the biosphere throughout Earth's history. The ecological severity of mass extinctions is well studied in marine ecosystems by categorizing marine taxa into functional groups based on 'ecospace' approaches, but the ecological response of terrestrial ecosystems to mass extinctions is less well understood due to the lack of a comparable methodology. Here, we present a new terrestrial ecospace framework that categorizes fauna into functional groups as defined by tiering, motility and feeding traits. We applied the new terrestrial and traditional marine ecospace analyses to data from the Paleobiology Database across the end-Triassic mass extinction-a time of catastrophic global warming-to compare changes between the marine and terrestrial biospheres. We found that terrestrial functional groups experienced higher extinction severity, that taxonomic and functional richness are more tightly coupled in the terrestrial, and that the terrestrial realm continued to experience high ecological dissimilarity in the wake of the extinction. Although signals of extinction severity and ecological turnover are sensitive to the quality of the terrestrial fossil record, our findings suggest greater ecological pressure from the end-Triassic mass extinction on terrestrial ecosystems than marine ecosystems, contributing to more prolonged terrestrial ecological flux.

Protected area coverage of vulnerable regions to conserve functional diversity of birds

Global-change drivers are increasing the rates of species extinction worldwide, posing a serious threat to ecosystem functioning. Preserving the functional diversity of species is currently a priority to mitigate abrupt biodiversity loss in the coming decades. Therefore, understanding what factors better predict functional diversity loss in bird assemblages at a global scale and how existing protected areas cover the most vulnerable regions is of key importance for conservation. We examined the environmental factors associated with the risk of functional diversity loss under 3 scenarios of bird species extinction based on species distribution range size, generation length, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature conservation status. Then, we identified regions that deserve special conservation focus. We also assessed how efficiently extant terrestrial protected areas preserve particularly vulnerable bird assemblages based on predicted scenarios of extinction risk. The vulnerability of bird functional diversity increased as net primary productivity, land-use diversity, mean annual temperature, and elevation decreased. Low values for these environmental factors were associated with a higher risk of functional diversity loss worldwide through two mechanisms: one independent of species richness that affects assemblages with low levels of niche packing and high functional dissimilarity among species, and the other that affects assemblages with low species richness and high rates of extinction. Existing protected areas ineffectively safeguarded regions with a high risk of losing functional diversity in the next decades. The global predictors and the underlying mechanisms of functional vulnerability in bird assemblages we identified can inform strategies aimed at preserving bird-driven ecological functions worldwide.

Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List

Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.