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Mancini G, Santini L, Cazalis V, Akçakaya HR, Lucas PM, Brooks TM, Foden W, Di Marco M. A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments. Conserv Biol 2023:e14227. [PMID: 38111977 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Thomas M Brooks
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
- World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of The Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Philippines
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Wendy Foden
- Cape Research Centre, South African National Parks, Cape Town, South Africa
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
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Chen C, Granados A, Brodie JF, Kays R, Davies TJ, Liu R, Fisher JT, Ahumada J, McShea W, Sheil D, Mohd-Azlan J, Agwanda B, Andrianarisoa MH, Appleton RD, Bitariho R, Espinosa S, Grigione MM, Helgen KM, Hubbard A, Hurtado CM, Jansen PA, Jiang X, Jones A, Kalies EL, Kiebou-Opepa C, Li X, Lima MGM, Meyer E, Miller AB, Murphy T, Piana R, Quan RC, Rota CT, Rovero F, Santos F, Schuttler S, Uduman A, van Bommel JK, Young H, Burton AC. Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions. Conserv Biol 2023:e14221. [PMID: 37937455 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023]
Abstract
Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng Chen
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Alys Granados
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Felidae Conservation Fund, Mill Valley, California, USA
| | - Jedediah F Brodie
- Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - T Jonathan Davies
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Runzhe Liu
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biology Department, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Jason T Fisher
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jorge Ahumada
- Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA
| | - William McShea
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian's National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, Virginia, USA
| | - Douglas Sheil
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Akershus, Norway
- Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia
| | - Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan
- Institute of Biodiversity and Environmental Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, Malaysia
| | | | | | - Robyn D Appleton
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Spectacled Bear Conservation Society Peru, Lambayeque, Peru
| | - Robert Bitariho
- Institute of Tropical Forest Conservation, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - Santiago Espinosa
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, México
- Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | | | - Kristofer M Helgen
- Australian Museum Research Institute, Australian Museum, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andy Hubbard
- National Park Service, Sonoran Desert Network, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Cindy M Hurtado
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Patrick A Jansen
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panamá, República de Panamá
| | - Xuelong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | - Alex Jones
- Campus Natural Reserves, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | | | | | - Xueyou Li
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
| | | | - Erik Meyer
- Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, California, USA
| | - Anna B Miller
- Department of Environment and Society, Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Thomas Murphy
- Department of Anthropology, Edmonds College, Lynwood, Washington, USA
| | - Renzo Piana
- Spectacled Bear Conservation Society Peru, Lambayeque, Peru
| | - Rui-Chang Quan
- Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, China
| | - Christopher T Rota
- Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
| | - Francesco Rovero
- Department of Biology, University of Florence, Trento, Italy
- MUSE - Museo delle Scienze, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | - Aisha Uduman
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Joanna Klees van Bommel
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Hilary Young
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - A Cole Burton
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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Heard MJ, Smith KF, Ripp K, Berger M, Chen J, Dittmeier J, Goter M, McGarvey ST, Ryan E. The threat of disease increases as species move toward extinction. Conserv Biol 2013; 27:1378-1388. [PMID: 24033873 PMCID: PMC4398030 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2012] [Accepted: 03/19/2013] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co-occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co-occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land-use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J. Heard
- Brown University, Environmental Change Initiative, Box 1951, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Katherine F. Smith
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Kelsey Ripp
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Melanie Berger
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Jane Chen
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Justin Dittmeier
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Maggie Goter
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
| | - Stephen T. McGarvey
- Brown University, Department of Epidemiology, 121 S. Main St. Providence, RI 02912
| | - Elizabeth Ryan
- Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912
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