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Cazalis V, Santini L, Lucas PM, González-Suárez M, Hoffmann M, Benítez-López A, Pacifici M, Schipper AM, Böhm M, Zizka A, Clausnitzer V, Meyer C, Jung M, Butchart SHM, Cardoso P, Mancini G, Akçakaya HR, Young BE, Patoine G, Di Marco M. Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e14139. [PMID: 37394972 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | | | - Ana Benítez-López
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Michela Pacifici
- Global Mammal Assessment Programme, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES), Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Monika Böhm
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | | | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Management Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | | | - Guillaume Patoine
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
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Walker BE, Leão TCC, Bachman SP, Lucas E, Nic Lughadha E. Evidence-based guidelines for automated conservation assessments of plant species. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e13992. [PMID: 36047690 PMCID: PMC10092660 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2021] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Assessing species' extinction risk is vital to setting conservation priorities. However, assessment endeavors, such as those used to produce the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, have significant gaps in taxonomic coverage. Automated assessment (AA) methods are gaining popularity to fill these gaps. Choices made in developing, using, and reporting results of AA methods could hinder their successful adoption or lead to poor allocation of conservation resources. We explored how choice of data cleaning type and level, taxonomic group, training sample, and automation method affect performance of threat status predictions for plant species. We used occurrences from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to generate assessments for species in 3 taxonomic groups based on 6 different occurrence-based AA methods. We measured each method's performance and coverage following increasingly stringent occurrence cleaning. Automatically cleaned data from GBIF performed comparably to occurrence records cleaned manually by experts. However, all types of data cleaning limited the coverage of AAs. Overall, machine-learning-based methods performed well across taxa, even with minimal data cleaning. Results suggest a machine-learning-based method applied to minimally cleaned data offers the best compromise between performance and species coverage. However, optimal data cleaning, training sample, and automation methods depend on the study group, intended applications, and expertise.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Eve Lucas
- Royal Botanic GardensKewRichmond, Surrey, TW9 3AEUK
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Anderson RP. Integrating habitat-masked range maps with quantifications of prevalence to estimate area of occupancy in IUCN assessments. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e14019. [PMID: 36285611 PMCID: PMC10099578 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Revised: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Estimates of species geographic ranges constitute critical input for biodiversity assessments, including those for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Area of occupancy (AOO) is one metric that IUCN uses to quantify a species' range, but data limitations typically lead to either under- or overestimates (and unnecessarily wide bounds of uncertainty). Fortunately, existing methods in which range maps and land-cover data are used to estimate the area currently holding habitat for a species can be extended to yield an unbiased range of plausible estimates for AOO. Doing so requires estimating the proportion of sites (currently containing habitat) that a species occupies within its range (i.e., prevalence). Multiplying a quantification of habitat area by prevalence yields an estimate of what the species inhabits (i.e., AOO). For species with intense sampling at many sites, presence-absence data sets or occupancy modeling allow calculation of prevalence. For other species, primary biodiversity data (records of a species' presence at a point in space and time) from citizen-science initiatives and research collections of natural history museums and herbaria could be used. In such cases, estimates of sample prevalence should be corrected by dividing by the species' detectability. To estimate detectability from these data sources, extensions of inventory-completeness analyses merit development. With investments to increase the quality and availability of online biodiversity data, consideration of prevalence should lead to tighter and more realistic bounds of AOO for many taxonomic groups and geographic regions. By leading to more realistic and representative characterizations of biodiversity, integrating maps of current habitat with estimates of prevalence should empower conservation practitioners and decision makers and thus guide actions and policy worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert P. Anderson
- Department of Biology, City College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate Center, City University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy)American Museum of Natural HistoryNew YorkNew YorkUSA
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4
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Roberts DL, Hinsley A, Fiennes S, Veríssimo D. Understanding the drivers of expert opinion when classifying species as extinct. Conserv Biol 2023; 37:e13968. [PMID: 36073325 PMCID: PMC10099933 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The criteria as laid out by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List are the gold standard by which the extinction risk of a species is assessed and where appropriate biological extinctions are declared. However, unlike all other categories, the category of extinct lacks a quantitative framework for assigning this category. Given its subjective nature, we surveyed expert assessors working on a diversity of taxa to explore the attributes they used to declare a species extinct. Using a choice experiment approach, we surveyed 674 experts from the IUCN Species Survival Commission specialist groups and taskforces. Data availability, time from the last sighting, detectability, habitat availability, and population decline were all important attributes favored by assessors when inferring extinction. Respondents with red-listing experience assigned more importance to the attributes data availability, time from the last sighting, and detectability when considering a species extinction, whereas those respondents working with well-known taxa gave more importance to the time from the last sighting. Respondents with no red-listing experience and those working with more well-known taxa (i.e., mammals and birds) were overall less likely to consider species extinct. Our findings on the importance assessors place on attributes used to declare a species extinct provide a basis for informing the development of specific criteria for more accurately assessing species extinctions.
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Affiliation(s)
- David L. Roberts
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and ConservationUniversity of KentCanterburyUK
| | - Amy Hinsley
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Sicily Fiennes
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological SciencesUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
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Zizka A, Silvestro D, Vitt P, Knight TM. Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:897-908. [PMID: 32841461 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2020] [Revised: 08/14/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Zizka
- German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
- Naturalis Biodiversity Centre, P.O. Box 9517, Leiden, 2300RA, the Netherlands
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Ch. de Musee 10, Switzerland
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center, University of Gothenburg, Box 461, Gothenburg, 405 30, Sweden
| | - Pati Vitt
- German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
- Plant Biology and Conservation, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 60208, U.S.A
| | - Tiffany M Knight
- German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120, Halle (Saale), Germany
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Hochkirch A, Samways MJ, Gerlach J, Böhm M, Williams P, Cardoso P, Cumberlidge N, Stephenson PJ, Seddon MB, Clausnitzer V, Borges PAV, Mueller GM, Pearce-Kelly P, Raimondo DC, Danielczak A, Dijkstra KDB. A strategy for the next decade to address data deficiency in neglected biodiversity. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:502-509. [PMID: 32656858 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2020] [Revised: 06/25/2020] [Accepted: 07/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Measuring progress toward international biodiversity targets requires robust information on the conservation status of species, which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides. However, data and capacity are lacking for most hyperdiverse groups, such as invertebrates, plants, and fungi, particularly in megadiverse or high-endemism regions. Conservation policies and biodiversity strategies aimed at halting biodiversity loss by 2020 need to be adapted to tackle these information shortfalls after 2020. We devised an 8-point strategy to close existing data gaps by reviving explorative field research on the distribution, abundance, and ecology of species; linking taxonomic research more closely with conservation; improving global biodiversity databases by making the submission of spatially explicit data mandatory for scientific publications; developing a global spatial database on threats to biodiversity to facilitate IUCN Red List assessments; automating preassessments by integrating distribution data and spatial threat data; building capacity in taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity monitoring in countries with high species richness or endemism; creating species monitoring programs for lesser-known taxa; and developing sufficient funding mechanisms to reduce reliance on voluntary efforts. Implementing these strategies in the post-2020 biodiversity framework will help to overcome the lack of capacity and data regarding the conservation status of biodiversity. This will require a collaborative effort among scientists, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Axel Hochkirch
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Trier Centre for Biodiversity Conservation, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- IUCN SSC Species Monitoring Specialist Group, c/o IUCN, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
| | - Michael J Samways
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa
| | - Justin Gerlach
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Peterhouse, Cambridge, CB2 1RD, U.K
| | - Monika Böhm
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, U.K
| | | | - Pedro Cardoso
- IUCN SSC Species Monitoring Specialist Group, c/o IUCN, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00100, Finland
- CE3C - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, 9700-042, Portugal
| | - Neil Cumberlidge
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Department of Biology, Northern Michigan University, Marquette, MI, 49855, U.S.A
| | - P J Stephenson
- IUCN SSC Species Monitoring Specialist Group, c/o IUCN, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
- Science & Economic Knowledge Unit, IUCN, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
- Ecosystem Management Group, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Mary B Seddon
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- IUCN SSC Mollusc Specialist Group, Exbourne, Okehampton, EX20 3RD, U.K
| | - Viola Clausnitzer
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- Senckenberg Research Institute, Görlitz, 02826, Germany
| | - Paulo A V Borges
- Department of Biogeography, IUCN SSC Invertebrate Conservation Committee, c/o Trier University, Trier, D-54286, Germany
- IUCN SSC Species Monitoring Specialist Group, c/o IUCN, Gland, 1196, Switzerland
- CE3C - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, 9700-042, Portugal
| | - Gregory M Mueller
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, IL, 60022, U.S.A
| | | | | | - Anja Danielczak
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Trier Centre for Biodiversity Conservation, Trier, D-54286, Germany
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He F, Langhans SD, Zarfl C, Wanke R, Tockner K, Jähnig SC. Combined effects of life-history traits and human impact on extinction risk of freshwater megafauna. Conserv Biol 2021; 35:643-653. [PMID: 32671869 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2019] [Revised: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 07/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Megafauna species are intrinsically vulnerable to human impact. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals ≥30 kg, including fishes, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians) are subject to intensive and increasing threats. Thirty-four species are listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Red List of Threatened Species, the assessments for which are an important basis for conservation actions but remain incomplete for 49 (24%) freshwater megafauna species. Consequently, the window of opportunity for protecting these species could be missed. Identifying the factors that predispose freshwater megafauna to extinction can help predict their extinction risk and facilitate more effective and proactive conservation actions. Thus, we collated 8 life-history traits for 206 freshwater megafauna species. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relationships between extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List categories and the combined effect of multiple traits, as well as the effect of human impact on these relationships for 157 classified species. The most parsimonious model included human impact and traits related to species' recovery potential including life span, age at maturity, and fecundity. Applying the most parsimonious model to 49 unclassified species predicted that 17 of them are threatened. Accounting for model predictions together with IUCN Red List assessments, 50% of all freshwater megafauna species are considered threatened. The Amazon and Yangtze basins emerged as global diversity hotspots of threatened freshwater megafauna, in addition to existing hotspots, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong basins and the Caspian Sea region. Assessment and monitoring of those species predicted to be threatened are needed, especially in the Amazon and Yangtze basins. Investigation of life-history traits and trends in population and distribution, regulation of overexploitation, maintaining river connectivity, implementing protected areas focusing on freshwater ecosystems, and integrated basin management are required to protect threatened freshwater megafauna in diversity hotspots.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fengzhi He
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, Berlin, 14195, Germany
- School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London, London, E1 4NS, UK
| | - Simone D Langhans
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, 9054, New Zealand
- BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change, Sede Building 1, Leioa, 48904, Spain
| | - Christiane Zarfl
- Center for Applied Geosciences, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Hölderlinstr. 12, Tübingen, 72074, Germany
| | - Roland Wanke
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, Berlin, 14195, Germany
| | - Klement Tockner
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, Berlin, 14195, Germany
- Austrian Science Fund (FWF), Sensengasse 1, Vienna, 1090, Austria
| | - Sonja C Jähnig
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany
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Bröder L, Tatin L, Hochkirch A, Schuld A, Pabst L, Besnard A. Optimization of capture-recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper. Conserv Biol 2020; 34:743-753. [PMID: 31825105 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2019] [Revised: 11/25/2019] [Accepted: 11/29/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture-recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture-recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture-recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (-6% to -27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture-recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture-recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda Bröder
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, 54296, Trier, Germany
| | - Laurent Tatin
- Conservatoire d'espaces naturels de Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, 2 Place Léon Michaud, 13310, Saint Martin de Crau, France
| | - Axel Hochkirch
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, 54296, Trier, Germany
| | - Andreas Schuld
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, 54296, Trier, Germany
| | - Lucas Pabst
- Department of Biogeography, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, 54296, Trier, Germany
| | - Aurélien Besnard
- EPHE, PSL Research University, CNRS, UM, SupAgro, IRD, INRA, UMR 5175 CEFE, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Campus CNRS - 1919 route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier, France
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Nic Lughadha EM, Graziele Staggemeier V, Vasconcelos TNC, Walker BE, Canteiro C, Lucas EJ. Harnessing the potential of integrated systematics for conservation of taxonomically complex, megadiverse plant groups. Conserv Biol 2019; 33:511-522. [PMID: 30779869 PMCID: PMC6850456 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2018] [Revised: 10/02/2018] [Accepted: 10/03/2018] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The value of natural history collections for conservation science research is increasingly recognized, despite their well-documented limitations in terms of taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. Specimen-based analyses are particularly important for tropical plant groups for which field observations are scarce and potentially unreliable due to high levels of diversity-amplifying identification challenges. Specimen databases curated by specialists are rich sources of authoritatively identified, georeferenced occurrence data, and such data are urgently needed for large genera. We compared entries in a monographic database for the large Neotropical genus Myrcia in 2007 and 2017. We classified and quantified differences in specimen records over this decade and determined the potential impact of these changes on conservation assessments. We distinguished misidentifications from changes due to taxonomic remodeling and considered the effects of adding specimens and georeferences. We calculated the potential impact of each change on estimates of extent of occurrence (EOO), the most frequently used metric in extinction-risk assessments of tropical plants. We examined whether particular specimen changes were associated with species for which changes in EOO over the decade were large enough to change their conservation category. Corrections to specimens previously misidentified or lacking georeferences were overrepresented in such species, whereas changes associated with taxonomic remodeling (lumping and splitting) were underrepresented. Among species present in both years, transitions to less threatened status outnumbered those to more threatened (8% vs 3%, respectively). Species previously deemed data deficient transitioned to threatened status more often than to not threatened (10% vs 7%, respectively). Conservation scientists risk reaching unreliable conclusions if they use specimen databases that are not actively curated to reflect changing knowledge.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Vanessa Graziele Staggemeier
- Royal Botanic Gardens, KewTW9 3AERichmondSurreyU.K.
- Universidade Estadual Paulista, Instituto de Biociências, Departamento de BotânicaLaboratório de FenologiaAvenida 24A 1515, CEP 13506–900Rio ClaroSão PauloBrazil
- Departamento de Ecologia, Centro de BiociênciasUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do NorteCEP 59072–970NatalRio Grande do NorteBrazil
| | - Thais N. C. Vasconcelos
- Royal Botanic Gardens, KewTW9 3AERichmondSurreyU.K.
- Laboratório de Sistemática VegetalDepartamento de Botânica, Universidade de São Paulo, São PauloSP 05508–090Brazil
| | | | | | - Eve J. Lucas
- Royal Botanic Gardens, KewTW9 3AERichmondSurreyU.K.
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10
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Moat J, Bachman SP, Field R, Boyd DS. Refining area of occupancy to address the modifiable areal unit problem in ecology and conservation. Conserv Biol 2018; 32:1278-1289. [PMID: 29797481 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Revised: 02/20/2018] [Accepted: 05/09/2018] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
The modifiable areal unit problem is prevalent across many aspects of spatial analysis within ecology and conservation. The problem is particularly manifested when calculating metrics for extinction risk estimation, for example, area of occupancy (AOO). Although embedded in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, AOO is often not used or is poorly applied. We evaluated new and existing methods for calculating AOO from occurrence records and devised a method for determining the minimum AOO with a uniform grid. We evaluated the grid cell shape, origin, and rotation with real-world and simulated data and reviewed the effects on AOO values and possible impacts for species already assessed on the IUCN Red List. The AOO varied by up to 80%, and a ratio of cells to points of 1:1.21 yielded the maximum variation in the number of occupied cells. These findings potentially impact 3% of existing species on the IUCN Red List and species not yet assessed. Our new method combined grid rotation and moving grid origin and gave fast, robust, and reproducible results and, in the majority of cases, achieved the minimum AOO. As well as determining minimum AOO, our method yielded a confidence interval that should be incorporated into existing tools that support species risk assessment. We recommend when recording AOO and other areal measurements that the methods; summary statistics across multiple iterations; angle and origin of the minimum grid; map projection; and datum be recorded, this will lead to more robust species risk assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin Moat
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AE, U.K
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, U.K
| | - Steven P Bachman
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AE, U.K
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, U.K
| | - Richard Field
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, U.K
| | - Doreen S Boyd
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, U.K
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11
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Kopf RK, Shaw C, Humphries P. Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes. Conserv Biol 2017; 31:581-591. [PMID: 27976421 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2016] [Revised: 10/19/2016] [Accepted: 11/02/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Keller Kopf
- Institute for Land Water & Society and School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia
| | - Casey Shaw
- School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia
| | - Paul Humphries
- Institute for Land Water & Society and School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia
- School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia
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12
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Luther DA, Brooks TM, Butchart SHM, Hayward MW, Kester ME, Lamoreux J, Upgren A. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species. Conserv Biol 2016; 30:1338-1346. [PMID: 27197021 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2015] [Revised: 05/02/2016] [Accepted: 05/04/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A Luther
- George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 3E1, Fairfax, VA, 22030, U.S.A..
| | - Thomas M Brooks
- International Union for Conservation of Nature, Rue Mauverney 28, 1196, Gland, Switzerland
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, U.K
| | | | - Marieke E Kester
- George Mason University, 4400 University Dr., MS 3E1, Fairfax, VA, 22030, U.S.A
| | - John Lamoreux
- National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, 1133 Fifteenth Street, N.W. Suite 1100, Washington, D.C., 20005, U.S.A
| | - Amy Upgren
- American Bird Conservancy, P.O. Box 249, 4249 Loudoun Avenue, The Plains, VA, 20198-2237, U.S.A
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13
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Tracewski Ł, Butchart SHM, Di Marco M, Ficetola GF, Rondinini C, Symes A, Wheatley H, Beresford AE, Buchanan GM. Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates. Conserv Biol 2016; 30:1070-1079. [PMID: 26991445 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2015] [Accepted: 03/05/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Łukasz Tracewski
- Royal Society for the Conservation of Birds, RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Edinburgh, EH12 9DH, U.K
- Faculty of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wrocław, Wrocław, Poland
| | | | - Moreno Di Marco
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gentile F Ficetola
- Laboratoired'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), Université Grenoble-Alpes, Grenoble, 38000, France
- LECA, CNRS, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, viale dell' Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
| | - Andy Symes
- BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge, CB30NA, U.K
| | - Hannah Wheatley
- BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge, CB30NA, U.K
| | - Alison E Beresford
- Royal Society for the Conservation of Birds, RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Edinburgh, EH12 9DH, U.K
| | - Graeme M Buchanan
- Royal Society for the Conservation of Birds, RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Edinburgh, EH12 9DH, U.K..
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14
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Joppa LN, Butchart SHM, Hoffmann M, Bachman SP, Akçakaya HR, Moat JF, Böhm M, Holland RA, Newton A, Polidoro B, Hughes A. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment. Conserv Biol 2016; 30:362-70. [PMID: 26183938 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2015] [Revised: 07/10/2015] [Accepted: 07/14/2015] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas N Joppa
- Microsoft Research, 1 Microsoft Way, Redmond, WA, U.S.A
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, Unit 1, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge, CB23 0NA, United Kingdom
| | - Michael Hoffmann
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom
| | - Steve P Bachman
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AB, United Kingdom
- School of Geography, Sir Clive Granger Building, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom
| | - H Resit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, 650 LSB Stony Brook, New York, 11794, U.S.A
| | - Justin F Moat
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AB, United Kingdom
- School of Geography, Sir Clive Granger Building, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
| | - Robert A Holland
- Centre for Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Adrian Newton
- Department of Life and Environmental Science, Bournemouth University, Dorset, United Kingdom
| | - Beth Polidoro
- School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University - West, Phoenix, U.S.A
| | - Adrian Hughes
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Potton Road, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, United Kingdom
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15
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Régnier C, Bouchet P, Hayes KA, Yeung NW, Christensen CC, Chung DJD, Fontaine B, Cowie RH. Extinction in a hyperdiverse endemic Hawaiian land snail family and implications for the underestimation of invertebrate extinction. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:1715-1723. [PMID: 26234768 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2014] [Revised: 03/03/2015] [Accepted: 03/26/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 832 species listed as extinct since 1600, a minuscule fraction of total biodiversity. This extinction rate is of the same order of magnitude as the background rate and has been used to downplay the biodiversity crisis. Invertebrates comprise 99% of biodiversity, yet the status of a negligible number has been assessed. We assessed extinction in the Hawaiian land snail family Amastridae (325 species, IUCN lists 33 as extinct). We did not use the stringent IUCN criteria, by which most invertebrates would be considered data deficient, but a more realistic approach comparing historical collections with modern surveys and expert knowledge. Of the 325 Amastridae species, 43 were originally described as fossil or subfossil and were assumed to be extinct. Of the remaining 282, we evaluated 88 as extinct and 15 as extant and determined that 179 species had insufficient evidence of extinction (though most are probably extinct). Results of statistical assessment of extinction probabilities were consistent with our expert evaluations of levels of extinction. Modeling various extinction scenarios yielded extinction rates of 0.4-14.0% of the amastrid fauna per decade. The true rate of amastrid extinction has not been constant; generally, it has increased over time. We estimated a realistic average extinction rate as approximately 5%/decade since the first half of the nineteenth century. In general, oceanic island biotas are especially susceptible to extinction and global rate generalizations do not reflect this. Our approach could be used for other invertebrates, especially those with restricted ranges (e.g., islands), and such an approach may be the only way to evaluate invertebrates rapidly enough to keep up with ongoing extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Régnier
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité, UMR 7205 CNRS Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Ecole pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Sorbonne Universités, Case postale 51, 55 rue Buffon, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Philippe Bouchet
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité, UMR 7205 CNRS Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Ecole pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Sorbonne Universités, Case postale 51, 55 rue Buffon, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Kenneth A Hayes
- Department of Biology, Howard University, 415 College Street NW, Washington, D.C., 20059, U.S.A
- Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, D.C., 20013, U.S.A
| | - Norine W Yeung
- Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, D.C., 20013, U.S.A
- Pacific Biosciences Research Center, University of Hawaii, 3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 408, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, U.S.A
- Bishop Museum, 1525 Bernice Street, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96817, U.S.A
| | - Carl C Christensen
- Pacific Biosciences Research Center, University of Hawaii, 3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 408, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, U.S.A
- Bishop Museum, 1525 Bernice Street, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96817, U.S.A
| | - Daniel J D Chung
- Bishop Museum, 1525 Bernice Street, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96817, U.S.A
| | - Benoît Fontaine
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité, UMR 7205 CNRS Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Ecole pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Sorbonne Universités, Case postale 51, 55 rue Buffon, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Robert H Cowie
- Pacific Biosciences Research Center, University of Hawaii, 3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 408, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, U.S.A
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16
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Hoffmann M, Duckworth JW, Holmes K, Mallon DP, Rodrigues ASL, Stuart SN. The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:1303-13. [PMID: 25917114 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2014] [Accepted: 12/14/2014] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Hoffmann
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom
| | - J W Duckworth
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland
- 6 Stratton Road, Saltford, Bristol, BS31 3BS, United Kingdom
| | - Katharine Holmes
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland
- 26 Oakthorn, Samson Crescent, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - David P Mallon
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester St, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - Ana S L Rodrigues
- CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE - CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier, Cedex 5, France
| | - Simon N Stuart
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom
- Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Arlington, VA, 22202, U.S.A
- Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom
- Al Ain Zoo, P.O. Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Abstract
Captive breeding of mammals in zoos is the last hope for many of the best-known endangered species and has succeeded in saving some from certain extinction. However, the number of managed species selected is relatively small and focused on large-bodied, charismatic mammals that are not necessarily under strong threat and not always good candidates for reintroduction into the wild. Two interrelated and more fundamental questions go unanswered: have the major breeding programs succeeded at the basic level of maintaining and expanding populations, and is there room to expand them? I used published counts of births and deaths from 1970 to 2011 to quantify rates of growth of 118 captive-bred mammalian populations. These rates did not vary with body mass, contrary to strong predictions made in the ecological literature. Most of the larger managed mammalian populations expanded consistently and very few programs failed. However, growth rates have declined dramatically. The decline was predicted by changes in the ratio of the number of individuals within programs to the number of mammal populations held in major zoos. Rates decreased as the ratio of individuals in programs to populations increased. In other words, most of the programs that could exist already do exist. It therefore appears that debates over the general need for captive-breeding programs and the best selection of species are moot. Only a concerted effort could create room to manage a substantially larger number of endangered mammals.
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Affiliation(s)
- John Alroy
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia.
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18
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Gilroy JJ, Medina Uribe CA, Haugaasen T, Edwards DP. Effect of scale on trait predictors of species responses to agriculture. Conserv Biol 2015; 29:463-472. [PMID: 25395246 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2014] [Accepted: 08/11/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Species persistence in human-altered landscapes can depend on factors operating at multiple spatial scales. To understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, it is useful to examine relationships between species traits and their responses to land-use change. A key knowledge gap concerns whether these relationships vary depending on the scale of response under consideration. We examined how local- and large-scale habitat variables influence the occupancy dynamics of a bird community in cloud forest zones in the Colombian Chocó-Andes. Using data collected across a continuum of forest and agriculture, we examined which traits best predict species responses to local variation in farmland and which traits best predict species responses to isolation from contiguous forest. Global range size was a strong predictor of species responses to agriculture at both scales; widespread species were less likely to decline as local habitat cover decreased and as distance from forest increased. Habitat specialization was a strong predictor of species responses only at the local scale. Open-habitat species were particularly likely to increase as pasture increased, but they were relatively insensitive to variation in distance to forest. Foraging plasticity and flocking behavior were strong predictors of species responses to distance from forest, but not their responses to local habitat. Species with lower plasticity in foraging behaviors and obligate flock-following species were more likely to decline as distance from contiguous forest increased. For species exhibiting these latter traits, persistence in tropical landscapes may depend on the protection of larger contiguous blocks of forest, rather than the integration of smaller-scale woodland areas within farmland. Species listed as threatened or near threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List were also more likely to decline in response to both local habitat quality and isolation from forest relative to least-concern species, underlining the importance of contiguous forests for threatened taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- James J Gilroy
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway
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19
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Ocampo-Peñuela N, Pimm SL. Setting practical conservation priorities for birds in the Western Andes of Colombia. Conserv Biol 2014; 28:1260-1270. [PMID: 25065287 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2013] [Accepted: 02/01/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
We aspired to set conservation priorities in ways that lead to direct conservation actions. Very large-scale strategic mapping leads to familiar conservation priorities exemplified by biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, tactical conservation actions unfold on much smaller geographical extents and they need to reflect the habitat loss and fragmentation that have sharply restricted where species now live. Our aspirations for direct, practical actions were demanding. First, we identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities. In doing this, we recognized the limitations of incomplete information. We started such a process in Colombia and used the results presented here to implement reforestation of degraded land to prevent the isolation of a large area of cloud forest. We used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would conserve the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia. By at risk species, we mean those that are endemic and have small ranges. The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species-100 in total-but the lowest densities of national parks. We then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18-100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, we made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalia Ocampo-Peñuela
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, U.S.A
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