Left-sided infective endocarditis in patients with liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the course of left-sided infective endocarditis (LsIE) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) analyzing its influence on mortality and the impact of surgery.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study, conducted from 1984 to 2013 in 26 Spanish hospitals.

RESULTS

A total of 3.136 patients with LsIE were enrolled and 308 had LC: 151 Child-Pugh A, 103 B, 34 C and 20 were excluded because of unknown stage. Mortality was significantly higher in the patients with LsIE and LC (42.5% vs. 28.4%; p < 0.01) and this condition was in general an independent worse factor for outcome (HR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.23-1.85; p < 0.001). However, patients in stage A had similar mortality to patients without cirrhosis (31.8% vs. 28.4% p = NS) and in this stage heart surgery had a protective effect (28% in operated patients vs. 60% in non-operated when it was indicated). Mortality was significantly higher in stages B (52.4%) and C (52.9%) and the prognosis was better for patients in stage B who underwent surgery immediately (mortality 50%) compared to those where surgery was delayed (58%) or not performed (74%). Only one patient in stage C underwent surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with liver cirrhosis and infective endocarditis have a poorer prognosis only in stages B and C. Early surgery must be performed in stages A and although in selected patients in stage B when indicated.

Prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers in the risk stratification of syncope: a systematic review

The role of cardiac biomarkers in risk stratification of syncope is unclear. We undertook a systematic review to assess their predictive value for short-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We conducted a systematic review using MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE and Cochrane databases from inception to July 2014. We included studies involving adult syncope patients that evaluated cardiac biomarker levels for risk stratification during acute management and excluded case reports, reviews and studies involving children. Primary outcome (MACE) included death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, myocardial infarction (MI), structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage or cardiac procedural interventions. Secondary outcome analysis assessed for prediction of MI, cardiac syncope and death. Two reviewers extracted patient-level data based on the cut-off reported. Pooled sensitivities and specificities were calculated using patient-level data. A total of 1862 articles were identified, and 11 studies with 4246 patients were included. Studies evaluated 3 biomarkers: contemporary troponin (2693 patients), natriuretic peptides (1353 patients) and high-sensitive troponin (819 patients). The pooled sensitivities and specificities for MACE were: contemporary troponin 0.29 (95 % CI 0.24, 0.34) and 0.88 (95 % CI 0.86, 0.89); natriuretic peptides 0.77 (95 % CI 0.69, 0.85) and 0.73 (95 % CI 0.70, 0.76); high-sensitive troponin 0.74 (95 % CI 0.65, 0.83) and 0.65 (95 % CI 0.62, 0.69), respectively. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin showed good diagnostic characteristics for both primary and secondary outcomes. Natriuretic peptides and high-sensitive troponin might be useful in risk stratification.

T-wave reversal in the augmented unipolar right arm electrocardiographic lead is associated with increased risk of sudden death

BACKGROUND

Repolarization abnormalities are associated with ventricular arrhythmias, and published studies report that a reversal of T wave polarity (positive or flat T wave) in lead aVR may be linked to increased cardiovascular mortality. We evaluated whether a positive or flat T wave in aVR is a risk marker for sudden cardiac death (SCD).

METHODS

SCD cases from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (catchment population ~1 million) were compared to geographic controls with coronary artery disease and no history of SCD. Archived electrocardiograms performed prior and unrelated to the SCD event were evaluated.

RESULTS

SCD cases (n = 691, 67.6 ± 14.9 years, 69% male) were more likely than controls (n = 663, 66.2 ± 11.6 years, 67% male) to have diabetes (40 vs 32%; p < 0.01), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35% (27 vs 11 %; p < 0.01), prolonged QTc (≥450 ms; 54 vs 28%; p < 0.01) and positive (19 vs 13%; p < 0.01) or flat T wave (14 vs 7%; p < 0.01) in aVR. On multivariable analysis, a positive/flat T wave in aVR was independently associated with SCD (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.8, p < 0.01). However, a positive T wave alone lost statistical significance in patients with LVEF ≤ 35% and QTc ≥ 450 ms. In a subgroup analysis among patients with normal LVEF, QTc, and no diabetes, a positive T wave in aVR (but not a flat T wave) remained associated with SCD (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.2-6.1, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A positive or flat T wave in lead aVR was associated with SCD in subsets of patients. This simple ECG marker in this often-ignored lead may contribute to enhancement of SCD risk stratification, and warrants further evaluation.

The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC): Novel global rare tumor database yields new prognostic factors in hepatoblastoma and becomes a research model

INTRODUCTION

Contemporary state-of-the-art management of cancer is increasingly defined by individualized treatment strategies. For very rare tumors, like hepatoblastoma, the development of biologic markers, and the identification of reliable prognostic risk factors for tailoring treatment, remains very challenging. The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC) is a novel international response to this challenge.

METHODS

Four multicenter trial groups in the world, who have performed prospective controlled studies of hepatoblastoma over the past two decades (COG; SIOPEL; GPOH; and JPLT), joined forces to form the CHIC consortium. With the support of the data management group CINECA, CHIC developed a centralized online platform where data from eight completed hepatoblastoma trials were merged to form a database of 1605 hepatoblastoma cases treated between 1988 and 2008. The resulting dataset is described and the relationships between selected patient and tumor characteristics, and risk for adverse disease outcome (event-free survival; EFS) are examined.

RESULTS

Significantly increased risk for EFS-event was noted for advanced PRETEXT group, macrovascular venous or portal involvement, contiguous extrahepatic disease, primary tumor multifocality and tumor rupture at enrollment. Higher age (≥ 8 years), low AFP (<100 ng/ml) and metastatic disease were associated with the worst outcome.

CONCLUSION

We have identified novel prognostic factors for hepatoblastoma, as well as confirmed established factors, that will be used to develop a future common global risk stratification system. The mechanics of developing the globally accessible web-based portal, building and refining the database, and performing this first statistical analysis has laid the foundation for future collaborative efforts. This is an important step for refining of the risk based grouping and approach to future treatment stratification, thus we think our collaboration offers a template for others to follow in the study of rare tumors and diseases.

Calcium Scoring and Cardiac Computed Tomography

Although recent advances in noninvasive imaging technologies have potentially improved diagnostic efficiency and clinical outcomes of patients with acute chest pain, controversy remains regarding much of the accumulated evidence. This article reviews the role of coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography in the assessment of coronary risk, and its usefulness in the emergency department in facilitating appropriate disposition decisions. Also discussed is coronary artery calcification incidentally found on CT scans when done for indications such as evaluation of pulmonary embolism or lung cancer. The evidence base and clinical applications for both techniques are described, together with cost-effectiveness and radiation exposure considerations.

A NSQIP Review of Major Morbidity and Mortality of Synchronous Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastasis Stratified by Extent of Liver Resection and Type of Colorectal Resection

INTRODUCTION

Safety of synchronous hepatectomy and colorectal resection (CRR) for metastatic colorectal cancer remains controversial. We hypothesized that both the extent of hepatectomy and CRR influences postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Prospective 2005-2013 ACS-NSQIP data were retrospectively reviewed for mortality and major morbidity (MM) after (1) isolated hepatectomy, (2) isolated CRR, and (3) synchronous resection for colorectal cancer. Hepatectomy and CRR risk categories were created based on mortality and MM of respective isolated resections. The synchronous cohort was then stratified based on risk categories. Cumulative asynchronous mortality and MM were estimated compared to that observed in the synchronous cohort via unadjusted relative risk and risk difference.

RESULTS

There were 43,408 patients identified. Among isolated hepatectomy patients (N = 6,661), trisectionectomy and right hepatectomy experienced the greatest mortality and were defined as "major" hepatectomy. Among isolated CRR patients (N = 35,825), diverted left colectomy, abdominoperineal resection, total abdominal colectomy, and total abdominal proctocolectomy experienced the greatest MM and were defined as "high risk" CRR. Synchronous patients (N = 922) were stratified by hepatectomy and CRR risk categories; mortality and MM varied from 0.9 to 5.0 % and 25.5 to 55.0 %, respectively. Mortality and MM were greatest for patients undergoing "high risk" CRR and "major" hepatectomy and lowest for synchronous CRR and "minor" hepatectomy. As both CRR and hepatectomy risk categories increased, there was a significant trend in increasing mortality and MM in synchronous patients. Additionally, comparison of the synchronous resections versus the estimated cumulative asynchronous outcomes showed that (1) mortality was significantly less after synchronous minor hepatectomy and either low or high risk CRR, and (2) neither mortality nor major morbidity differed significantly after major hepatectomy with either high or low risk CRR.

CONCLUSION

Major morbidity after synchronous hepatic and colorectal resections vary incrementally and are related to both the risk of hepatectomy and CRR. Stratification of outcomes by the hepatectomy and CRR components may reflect a more accurate description of risks. Comparison of synchronous and combined outcomes of individual operations supports a potential benefit for synchronous resections with minor hepatectomy.

A history of breast cancer and older age allow risk stratification of mammographic BI-RADS 3 ratings in the diagnostic setting

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to investigate whether risk stratification of mammographic Breast Imaging: Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 3 can be accomplished in the diagnostic setting.

METHODS

We analyzed 4941 BI-RADS-3-rated patients (23 malignant outcomes) and built logistic-regression models with age, personal and family history of breast cancer, fibroglandular density, and additional mammographic findings as predictive variables.

RESULTS

A personal history of breast cancer (odds ratio: 5.53) and older age (odds ratio: 12.44/10.93 for age 50-64/>64) are independent risk factors. Patients with both risk factors have a risk >2%.

CONCLUSION

Biopsy may be warranted in older patients with a history of breast cancer who would be otherwise assigned BI-RADS 3.

Mutational analysis of mitochondrial DNA in Brugada syndrome

BACKGROUND

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a primary electrical disease associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death due to ventricular fibrillation. This pathology has nuclear heterogeneous genetic origins, and at present, molecular diagnostic tests on nuclear DNA cover only 30% of BrS patients. The aim of this study was to assess the possible involvement of mitochondrial (mt) DNA variants in BrS since their etiological role in several cardiomyopathies has already been described.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The whole mt genome of BrS patients was sequenced and analyzed. A specific mtDNA mutation responsible for BrS can be excluded, but BrS patient d-loop was found to be more polymorphic than that of control cases (P=0.003). Moreover, there appears to be an association between patients with the highest number of variants (n>20) and four mt Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNPs) (T4216C, A11251G, C15452A, T16126C) and the most severe BrS phenotype (P=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The high substitution rate found in BrS patient mtDNA is unlikely to be the primary cause of the disease, but it could represent an important cofactor in the manifestation of the BrS phenotype. Evidence suggesting that a specific mtDNA allelic combination and a high number of mtDNA SNPs may be associated with more severe cases of BrS represents the starting point for further cohort studies aiming to test whether this mt genetic condition could be a genetic modulator of the BrS clinical phenotype.

Biomarkers and low risk in heart failure. Data from COACH and TRIUMPH

AIM

Traditionally, risk stratification in heart failure (HF) emphasizes assessment of high risk. We aimed to determine if biomarkers could identify patients with HF at low risk for death or HF rehospitalization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This analysis was a substudy of The Coordinating Study Evaluating Outcomes of Advising and Counselling in Heart Failure (COACH) trial. Enrolment of HF patients occurred before discharge. We defined low risk as the absence of death and/or HF rehospitalizations at 180 days. We tested a diverse group of 29 biomarkers on top of a clinical risk model, with and without N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and defined the low risk biomarker cut-off at the 10th percentile associated with high positive predictive value. The best performing biomarkers together with NT-proBNP and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) were re-evaluated in a validation cohort of 285 HF patients. Of 592 eligible COACH patients, the mean (± SD) age was 71 (± 11) years and median (IQR) NT-proBNP was 2521 (1301-5634) pg/mL. Logistic regression analysis showed that only galectin-3, fully adjusted, was significantly associated with the absence of events at 180 days (OR 8.1, 95% confidence interval 1.06-50.0, P = 0.039). Galectin-3, showed incremental value when added to the clinical risk model without NT-proBNP (increase in area under the curve from 0.712 to 0.745, P = 0.04). However, no biomarker showed significant improvement by net reclassification improvement on top of the clinical risk model, with or without NT-proBNP. We confirmed our results regarding galectin-3, NT-proBNP, and cTnI in the independent validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

We describe the value of various biomarkers to define low risk, and demonstrate that galectin-3 identifies HF patients at (very) low risk for 30-day and 180-day mortality and HF rehospitalizations after an episode of acute HF. Such patients might be safely discharged.

Anemia and its association with clinical outcome in heart failure patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy

PURPOSE

Although a substantial proportion of patients with heart failure (HF) have anemia, there is a paucity of data evaluating the impact of anemia on clinical outcome in CRT patients. Our goal was to examine the ability of baseline hemoglobin (Hb) level and change in Hb level over time to predict clinical 2-year outcome and echocardiographic response to CRT.

METHODS

Three hundred consecutive CRT patients (median 72 years [interquartile range (IQR) 16 years], 19% female) with baseline and follow-up hematological profiles available were examined. Baseline anemia was defined as Hb <12 g/dL in women and <13 g/dL in men, and patients were grouped into equal quartiles based on change in Hb. Two-year clinical outcome was determined using a composite endpoint that included HF hospitalization, left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement, heart transplantation, and all-cause mortality. Echocardiographic reverse remodeling was examined at 6-month follow-up.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-one anemic patients were compared to 149 non-anemic patients. Changes in left ventricular dimensions and ejection fraction were similar for both groups. Univariate predictors of 2-year clinical outcome included baseline creatinine level, diuretic usage, and anemia; in multivariable regression, baseline anemia was an independent predictor for outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.22-2.63], p = 0.003). The quartile with the most negative change in Hb concentration over time (≤-1.00 g/dL) had poorer event-free 2-year survival (HR 1.84, CI [1.13-3.00], p = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline anemia and early postimplantation decline in Hb levels are associated with a worse 2-year prognosis in CRT patients, even though the magnitude of left ventricular reverse remodeling is similar compared to non-anemic patients.

Prognostic Importance of Pretransplant Functional Capacity After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic importance of functional capacity in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematological malignancies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using a retrospective design, 407 patients completed a 6-minute walk distance (6 MWD) test to assess functional capacity before HCT; 193 (47%) completed a 6 MWD test after hospital discharge. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS) according to the 6 MWD category (<400 m vs. ≥ 400 m) and the change in 6 MWD (before HCT to discharge) with or without adjustment for Karnofsky performance status (KPS), age, and other prognostic markers.

RESULTS

Compared with <400 m, the unadjusted hazard ratio for NRM was 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.96) for a 6 MWD ≥ 400 m. A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of NRM with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not KPS alone (p = .062) or adjustment for other prognostic markers (p = .099). A significant association was found between the 6 MWD and OS (p = .027). A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of OS with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not for other prognostic markers (p > .05 for all). Patients presenting with a pre-HCT 6 MWD of <400 m and experiencing a decline in 6 MWD had the highest risk of NRM.

CONCLUSION

The 6 MWD is a significant univariate predictor of clinical outcomes but did not provide prognostic information beyond that of traditional prognostic markers in HCT.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The pretransplant 6-minute walk test is a significant univariate predictor of clinical outcomes in hematological patients beyond age but not beyond that of performance status. On this basis, 6-minute walk distance testing should not be considered part of the standard battery of assessments for risk stratification before hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Patient comorbidities increase postoperative resource utilization after laparoscopic and open cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND

An understanding of the relationship between patient factors and healthcare resource utilization represents a major point of interest for optimizing clinical care and overall net savings, yet maintaining financial margins for provider revenues. This study aims to review resource utilization after cholecystectomy in order to characterize patient factors associated with increased postoperative ED visits and 30-day readmissions.

METHODS

A total of 53,632 open and laparoscopic cholecystectomies were reviewed from July 2009 to December 2010 in a large private payer claims database. ICD-9 and CPT codes were available for each event, as well as basic demographics. Data regarding 30-day postoperative resource utilization metrics (emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations) were analyzed and stratified by key patient comorbidities. Differences between subgroups were evaluated with univariate and multivariable methods.

RESULTS

Of the 53,632 patients studied, 71.2 % (38,171) were female and 28.8 % (15,461) male. Resource utilization within 30 days of surgery included: 6.6 % (3538) of patients with an ED visit and 7.7 % (4103) with an inpatient hospitalization. The most common comorbidities in the study population were: hypertension, hyperlipidemia, GERD/hiatal hernia, and diabetes mellitus. Patients with heart failure, cirrhosis, and a history of MI or acute ischemic heart disease all had a significant association with postoperative ED visit and the highest likelihood of inpatient hospitalization. Angina, diabetes, and hypertension similarly increased both ED utilization and inpatient readmissions to a lesser but still significant extent. Although patients with GERD/hiatal hernia and sleep apnea had a significant association with ED use, they did not have an increased likelihood of readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient comorbidity indexing plays a major role in clinical risk stratification and resource utilization for cholecystectomy. These factors should be considered in bundled reimbursement packages and in the creation of preventive postoperative ambulatory strategies given their role in determining potential resource utilization in the postoperative setting.

Left ventricular sphericity independently predicts appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy

BACKGROUND

Whether echocardiographic markers of remodeling are associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) marker of spherical left ventricular (LV) remodeling is associated with appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy in patients with primary prevention ICDs.

METHODS

From TTE images, we calculated sphericity index (SI), the ratio of biplane LV end-diastolic volume to the volume of a hypothetical sphere with a diameter of the LV end-diastolic length, and examined the relation between SI and therapy for ventricular tachyarrhythmias in 278 patients with primary prevention ICDs and in 50 controls without structural heart disease or ventricular arrhythmias.

RESULTS

SI in normal healthy adult subjects and in subjects receiving ICDs was 0.44 ± 0.02 and 0.65 ± 0.04, respectively (P <.001). Median time to first appropriate ICD therapy was significantly shorter in ICD patients with SI in the upper vs lower 50% of SI values (1.40 vs 2.38 years, P = .02 for conventional ICD patients; 1.54 vs 2.65 years, P = .02 for cardiac resynchronization therapy-defibrillator [CRT-D] patients). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, SI in the upper 50% was independently associated with appropriate ICD therapy after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio 2.2, P = .03 for ICD cohort; hazard ratio 4.4, P = .01 for CRT-D cohort). SI was not associated with total mortality in either cohort.

CONCLUSION

SI is associated with appropriate ICD therapy, but not total mortality, in patients receiving primary prevention ICDs. These observations suggest spherical LV remodeling may predispose to ventricular arrhythmias. Furthermore, SI appears to add predictive accuracy for appropriate ICD therapy in patients with reduced ejection fraction.

A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion.

METHODS

Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases.

RESULTS

We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that incorporating risk scoring knowledge as prior information can improve the performance in risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

Experimental results reveal that our models achieve competitive performance in risk stratification in comparison with existing supervised approaches. In addition, the unsupervised nature of our models makes them highly portable to the risk stratification tasks of various diseases. Moreover, patient sub-profiles and sub-profile-specific risk tiers generated by our models are coherent and informative, and provide significant potential to be explored for the further tasks, such as patient cohort analysis. We hypothesize that the proposed framework can readily meet the demand for risk stratification from a large volume of EHRs in an open-ended fashion.

Mitral peak early diastolic filling velocity to deceleration time ratio as a predictor of prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure and preserved or reduced ejection fraction

Objective

Doppler derived mitral peak early diastolic filling velocity to deceleration time ratio (E/DT) has been proposed as parameter for predicting prognosis in general population. This study prospectively investigates the incremental prognostic value of E/DT over clinical, conventional echocardiographic and mitral-Doppler variables in patients hospitalized for decompensated heart failure (HF).

Methods

We analyzed 95 HF patients (mean age 64.8 ± 12.2 years) hospitalized at our institution from January 2010 to March 2012. The primary end-point was cardiac death or hospitalization, whichever occurred first. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors of outcomes.

Results

During follow-up (median 37.7 months) 13 patients died and 44 were hospitalized for a cardiac event. At univariable analysis, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, furosemide dosage, lateral tricuspidal annular plane systolic excursion, deceleration time and E/DT were predictive of outcome. At multivariable analysis, E/DT was the only predictor of prognosis (hazard ratio = 1.02, P = 0.018), giving incremental prognostic information to clinical and other echocardio-graphic measures (global chi-square from 15.4 to 25.2; P = 0.032).

Conclusions

E/DT gives independent and incremental prognostic information in HF patients.

Differences in intestinal metaplasia in Barrett's esophagus patients in an ethnically diverse south London population

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the replacement of any portion of the normal distal squamous epithelial mucosa by metaplastic columnar epithelium and is the only known precursor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. We undertook a study to identify ethnic differences for the presence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) in BE in patients in an ethnically diverse south London population. Retrospective analysis was done using the endoscopy database of St George's Hospital NHS Trust, which serves a large ethnically diverse London population. Gastroscopy records between 2009 and 2012 were retrieved, and patients with an endoscopic diagnosis of BE were identified. Patients of Indian subcontinent Asian origin (ISCA) were further identified. The presence of IM was retrieved from hospital pathology databases and was the primary outcome measured. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the odds of having IM by ethnic origin. ISCAs were 70% less likely to have IM compared to non-ISCAs (OR 0.32, 95% CI: 0.16-0.61, p = 0.001). This is the first study to identify differences in histological findings in ISCAs with BE living in the UK. Our findings may be useful for the future risk stratification of BE patients. Identification of environmental factors responsible for this difference would be of great therapeutic value.

Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome.

METHODS

In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone.

FINDINGS

We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

INTERPRETATION

For the first time in prostate cancer this study demonstrates the importance of integrated genomic analyses incorporating both benign and tumour tissue data in identifying molecular alterations leading to the generation of robust gene sets that are predictive of clinical outcome in independent patient cohorts.

D-dimer for risk stratification in haemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism

PURPOSE

Patients with submassive pulmonary embolism (PE) have a higher short-term mortality than those with low-risk PE. Rapid identification of submassive PE is important for adequate treatment of non-massive PE. We aimed to investigate the utility of D-dimer for the prediction of submassive PE stadium in normotensive PE patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Normotensive PE patients were classified into submassive or low-risk PE groups. In addition to the comparison of the groups, area under the curve (AUC) and D-dimer cut-off for the prediction of submassive PE stadium, multi-variate logistic regression for association between D-dimer values above this cut-off and submassive PE stadium were also calculated.

RESULTS

The data of 129 normotensive PE patients (59.7% women, mean age 70.0 years (60.7/81.0)) were analysed retrospectively. Patients with submassive PE were older (75.0 years (61.7/81.0) vs. 66.5 years (55.7/74.2), P=0.026) and more frequently female (63.6% vs. 53.8%, P=0.35). Heart rate (100.0beats/min (85.0/108.0) vs. 80.0beats/min (70.0/96.2), P<0.0001), systolic pulmonary-artery pressure (41.55±16.79mmHg vs. 22.62±14.81mmHg, P<0.0001), and D-dimer (2.00mg/l (1.09/3.98) vs. 1.21mg/l (0.75/1.99), P=0.011) were higher in patients with submassive PE. D-dimer values >1.32mg/l were indicative of submassive PE and shock-index ≥0.7. The effectiveness (AUC) of the test was 0.63 for submassive PE and 0.64 for shock-index ≥0.7. D-dimer values >1.32mg/l were associated with submassive PE stadium (OR 3.81 (95% CI: 1.74-8.35), P=0.00083) as well as with systolic blood pressure (OR 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99), P=0.033), heart rate (OR 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00-1.04), P=0.023) and shock-index value (OR 15.89 (95% CI: 1.94-130.08), P=0.0099).

CONCLUSIONS

D-dimer values >1.32mg/l are indicative of submassive PE stadium and shock-index ≥0.7. Efficacy of D-dimer for predicting submassive PE stadium was only weak to moderate.

Predicting delirium: a review of risk-stratification models

BACKGROUND

Delirium is a common condition in hospitalized patients and is associated with multiple adverse outcomes. There is increasing evidence to support interventions that prevent delirium, so the identification of patients at high risk is of significant clinical value. Numerous risk factors have been identified, including both premorbid patient characteristics and acute precipitants. Despite this, predicting the occurrence of delirium remains a clinical challenge.

OBJECTIVE

This article reviews studies of validated risk-stratification models for delirium. We discuss possible barriers to use of these models and future directions for research.

METHODS

A comprehensive review of the literature was completed using PubMed and Embase. The resulting citations were filtered in a structured process. Inclusion criteria were original research, adult medical inpatient population and presence of a validation group in the study design.

RESULTS

Ten cohort studies met inclusion criteria. The quality of the studies was moderate to good. All studies proposed models using clinical data to predict the risk of patients' developing delirium.

CONCLUSION

The most common risk factors identified were preexisting cognitive impairment, medical comorbidity, elevated Blood Urea Nitrogen, and impairment in activities of daily living. While multiple validated predictive models exist, there is substantial heterogeneity between models, and only one replication study has been performed. In addition, difficulties in implementation may be a barrier to broader use of these models. There is limited support for an accurate and reliable tool to predict inpatient delirium. Further research is needed in this clinically important area.

Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

Undifferentiated chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department attendance and admission to hospitals. Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is an important cause of chest pain, and accurate diagnosis and risk stratification in the emergency department must be a clinical priority. In the future, the incidence of NSTE-ACS will rise further as higher sensitivity troponin assays are implemented in clinical practice. In this article, we review contemporary approaches for the diagnosis and risk stratification of NSTE-ACS during emergency care. We consider the limitations of current practices and potential improvements.

Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom), in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

A Preliminary Risk Stratification Model for Individuals with Neck Pain

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the present study was to identify predictive characteristics related to patients with neck impairments who have a high risk of a poor prognosis (lowest functional recovery compared to visit utilization) as well as those who are at low risk of a poor prognosis (highest functional recovery compared to visit utilization).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 3,137 patients with neck pain who were seen for physiotherapy care was included in the study. All patients were seen at physiotherapy clinics in the United States and were provided with care in a manner in which the physiotherapists felt was appropriate and necessary. Univariate and multivariate multinomial regression analyses were used to identify significant patient characteristics predictive of treatment response.

RESULTS

Statistically significant predictors of high-risk categorization included longer duration of symptoms, surgical history and lower comparative levels of disability at baseline. Statistically significant predictors of low-risk categorization were younger age, shorter duration of symptoms, no surgical history, fewer comorbidities and higher comparative disability levels of function at baseline.

DISCUSSION

Few studies have analysed risk stratification models for neck pain, and the findings of the present study suggest that predictors of poor success are similar to those in most musculoskeletal prognostic models. Limitations of the study included those inherent in secondary analysis and the inability to identify the diagnoses of the patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should continue to examine the variables predictive of treatment response in patients with neck pain. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Submassive pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common diagnosis in critical care. Depending on the severity of clot burden, the clinical picture ranges from nearly asymptomatic to cardiovascular collapse. The signs and symptoms of PE are nonspecific. The clinician must have a high index of suspicion to make the diagnosis. PE is risk stratified into 3 categories: low-risk, submassive, and massive. Submassive PE remains the most challenging with regard to initial and long-term management. Little consensus exists as to the appropriate tests for risk stratification and therapy. This article reviews the current literature and a suggested approach to these patients.

Intra-individual comparison of carotid and femoral atherosclerotic plaque features with in vivo MR plaque imaging

The purpose of this study was to evaluate differences of plaque composition and morphology within the same patient in different vascular beds using non-invasive MR-plaque imaging. 28 patients (67.8 ± 7.4 years, 8 females) with high Framingham general cardiovascular disease 10-year risk score and mild-to-moderate atherosclerosis were consecutively included in the study. All subjects underwent a dedicated MRI-plaque imaging protocol using TOF and T1w and T2w black-blood-sequences with fat suppression at 1.5 T. The scan was centered on the carotid bulb of the carotid arteries and on the most stenotic lesion of the ipsilateral femoral artery, respectively. Plaques were classified according to the American Heart Association (AHA) lesion type classification and area measurements of lumen, wall and the major plaque components, such as calcification, necrotic core and hemorrhage were determined in consensus by two blinded reviewers using dedicated software (Cascade, Seattle, USA). Plaque components were recorded as maximum percentages of the wall area. Carotid arteries had larger maximum wall and smaller minimum lumen areas (p < 0.001) than femoral arteries, whereas no significant difference was find with respect to the max. NWI (p = 0.87). Prevalence of lipid-rich AHA lesion type IV/V and complicated AHA lesion type VI with hemorrhage/thrombus/fibrous cap rupture was significantly higher in the carotid arteries compared to the femoral arteries. Plaque composition as percentage of the vessel wall differed significantly between carotid and femoral arteries: Max. %necrotic core and max. %hemorrhage were significantly higher in the carotid arteries compared to the femoral arteries (p = 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively). Max. %calcification did not differ significantly. Average stenotic degree of carotid arteries at duplex was 49.7 ± 12.5 (%). Non-invasive MR plaque-imaging is able to visualize differences in plaque composition across the vascular tree. We observed significant differences in quantitative and qualitative plaque features between carotid and femoral arteries within the same patient, which in the future could help to improve risk stratification in patients with atherosclerosis.

Asymptomatic monoclonal gammopathies

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) represent the earlier phases of plasma cell dyscrasias. Their definition is based on absence of end-organ damage with presence of a malignant clone that grows in the bone marrow. They share, as a common feature, the risk of progression to a symptomatic disease. MGUS progression risk is approximately 1% per year, and SMM has a risk of progression of 10% for the first 5 years which tapers off over time. The main purpose of identification of these earlier phases of the plasma cell dyscrasia was to identify patients who do not warrant treatment with chemotherapy, in whom the risk of treatment outweighs the benefit. Over the years, the definitions have not been modified to incorporate developments in imaging (magnetic resonance or positron emission and computed tomography), or genomics to identify patients at highest risk of progression within 2 years, where wait and watch might not be an appropriate option. In the absence of such definition, patients who have only a 50% chance of progression within 2 years are being offered therapy, which might also not be an optimal approach. In this review, we provide an overview of the definition, current prognostic factors, and risk stratifications in asymptomatic gammopathies, and discuss clinical trial outcomes in high-risk SMM.

Outcomes Among High-Risk and Standard-Risk Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated With High-Dose Chemotherapy and Autologous Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Conventional cytogenetics and interphase fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) identify a high-risk multiple myeloma population characterized by poor response and short survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We compared outcomes between high-risk and standard-risk myeloma patients who underwent autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (auto-HCT) at our institution between January 2005 and December 2009. High-risk myeloma was defined as -13/del(13q) or hypodiploidy in at least 2 metaphases of conventional cytogenetics, or -17/del(17p), t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), hypodiploidy (< 45 chromosomes excluding -Y), or chromosome 1 abnormalities (+1q, -1p, t(1;x)) on FISH or conventional cytogenetics.

RESULTS

Of 670 myeloma patients, 74 (11%) had high-risk myeloma. These high-risk patients had significantly lower overall response rates (74% vs. 85%; P < .01), shorter median progression-free survival (10.3 vs. 32.4 months; P < .001), and shorter overall survival (28 months vs. not reached; P < .001) than the standard-risk patients. Having only 1 high-risk cytogenetic abnormality or experiencing at least very good partial remission after auto-HCT independently predicted improved progression-free survival and overall survival (P < .05) in high-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

Even in an era of novel therapies, cytogenetically identified high-risk myeloma patients have worse prognoses than standard-risk myeloma patients after auto-HCT, and having more than 1 high-risk cytogenetic abnormality further reduces survival.

SLITRK3 expression correlation to gastrointestinal stromal tumor risk rating and prognosis

AIM: To assess the influence of SLIT and NTRK-like family member 3 (SLITRK3) on the prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) and determine whether SLITRK3 can help improve current risk stratification systems.

METHODS: We hypothesized that SLITRK3 could be used as a prognostic molecular biomarker for GIST. 35 fresh tumor samples and 417 paraffin-embedded specimens from GIST patients were utilized. SLITRK3 mRNA expression in GIST tumor tissue was detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction, and SLITRK3 protein levels were estimated by immunohistochemistry. The correlation of SLITRK3 expression with various tumor clinicopathological characteristics and follow-up data were analyzed.

RESULTS: GIST tumors had high expression of SLITRK3 compared with adjacent normal tissues and the expression level gradually increased with risk grade. SLITRK3 protein expression was closely associated with gastrointestinal bleeding, tumor site, tumor size, mitotic index, and National Institutes of Health (NIH) classification. Survival analysis showed that SLITRK3 expression was closely correlated with overall survival and disease-free survival of GIST patients. Multivariate analysis also identified SLITRK3 expression, mitotic index, and NIH stage as significant risk factors of GIST recurrence.

CONCLUSION: SLITRK3 expression is a highly significant predictor of GIST recurrence and metastasis. Combinations of SLITRK3 and NIH stage have strong predictive and prognostic value, and are feasible markers for clinical practice in gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

Improving imaging to optimize screening strategies for carotid artery stenosis

Carotid stenosis is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke. Recently, the United States Preventive Services Task Force issued a recommendation against screening for carotid stenosis in the general population. There is the potential for efficient risk-stratifying or staged screening approaches that identify individuals at highest risk for carotid stenosis and stroke, but these tools have yet to be proven effective in external validation studies. In this paper, we review how medical imaging can be used to detect carotid stenosis and highlight several areas that could be improved to identify potentially efficient screening strategies for carotid stenosis.

Advances in heart rate variability signal analysis: joint position statement by the e-Cardiology ESC Working Group and the European Heart Rhythm Association co-endorsed by the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society

Following the publication of the Task Force document on heart rate variability (HRV) in 1996, a number of articles have been published to describe new HRV methodologies and their application in different physiological and clinical studies. This document presents a critical review of the new methods. A particular attention has been paid to methodologies that have not been reported in the 1996 standardization document but have been more recently tested in sufficiently sized populations. The following methods were considered: Long-range correlation and fractal analysis; Short-term complexity; Entropy and regularity; and Nonlinear dynamical systems and chaotic behaviour. For each of these methods, technical aspects, clinical achievements, and suggestions for clinical application were reviewed. While the novel approaches have contributed in the technical understanding of the signal character of HRV, their success in developing new clinical tools, such as those for the identification of high-risk patients, has been rather limited. Available results obtained in selected populations of patients by specialized laboratories are nevertheless of interest but new prospective studies are needed. The investigation of new parameters, descriptive of the complex regulation mechanisms of heart rate, has to be encouraged because not all information in the HRV signal is captured by traditional methods. The new technologies thus could provide after proper validation, additional physiological, and clinical meaning. Multidisciplinary dialogue and specialized courses in the combination of clinical cardiology and complex signal processing methods seem warranted for further advances in studies of cardiac oscillations and in the understanding normal and abnormal cardiac control processes.

Rule-based versus probabilistic selection for active surveillance using three definitions of insignificant prostate cancer

PURPOSE

To study whether probabilistic selection by the use of a nomogram could improve patient selection for active surveillance (AS) compared to the various sets of rule-based AS inclusion criteria currently used.

METHODS

We studied Dutch and Swedish patients participating in the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). We explored which men who were initially diagnosed with cT1-2, Gleason 6 (Gleason pattern ≤3 + 3) had histopathological indolent PCa at RP [defined as pT2, Gleason pattern ≤3 and tumour volume (TV) ≤0.5 or TV ≤ 1.3 ml, and TV no part of criteria (NoTV)]. Rule-based selection was according to the Prostate cancer Research International: Active Surveillance (PRIAS), Klotz, and Johns Hopkins criteria. An existing nomogram to define probability-based selection for AS was refitted for the TV1.3 and NoTV indolent PCa definitions.

RESULTS

619 of 864 men undergoing RP had cT1-2, Gleason 6 disease at diagnosis and were analysed. Median follow-up was 8.9 years. 229 (37%), 356 (58%), and 410 (66%) fulfilled the TV0.5, TV1.3, and NoTV indolent PCa criteria at RP. Discriminating between indolent and significant disease according to area under the curve (AUC) was: TV0.5: 0.658 (PRIAS), 0.523 (Klotz), 0.642 (Hopkins), 0.685 (nomogram). TV1.3: 0.630 (PRIAS), 0.550 (Klotz), 0.615 (Hopkins), 0.646 (nomogram). NoTV: 0.603 (PRIAS), 0.530 (Klotz), 0.589 (Hopkins), 0.608 (nomogram).

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of a nomogram, the Johns Hopkins, and PRIAS rule-based criteria are comparable. Because the nomogram allows individual trade-offs, it could be a good alternative to rigid rule-based criteria.

Long-term outcomes of (131)Iodine mIBG therapy in metastatic gastrointestinal pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours: single administration predicts non-responders

BACKGROUND

(131)Iodine (I131)-metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) is a radionuclide-based treatment option for metastatic gastrointestinal-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP NET). This study aimed at identifying prognostic indicators of long-term outcome based on initial evaluation following a first mIBG treatment (7400 MBq) in a patient cohort with such tumours, with a secondary aim of evaluating progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) following mIBG therapy.

METHODS

Retrospective review of the hospital records was performed to identify a cohort of 38 adult patients who underwent (131)Iodine-mIBG therapy over a 9-year period for metastatic GEP NETs and neuroendocrine tumours with an unknown primary. Treatment response was evaluated based on radiological criteria (RECIST1.1), biochemical markers [serum Chromogranin A (CgA)/urinary 5HIAA] and symptomatic response at clinical follow-up, all evaluated at 3-6 months from first mIBG treatment. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) from the first mIBG treatment were recorded.

RESULTS

At 3-6 months following a single mIBG therapy, 75%, 67%, and 63% of patients showed either a partial response (PR) or stable disease (SD) on radiological, biochemical, and symptomatic criteria, respectively. Complete response (CR) was not seen in any patient. OS from the date of diagnosis and from the first therapy was 8 years +/-1.1 (95% CI 5.7 to 10.2 years) and 4 years+/-0.69 (95% CI 2.6-5.3 years), respectively. Twenty-nine percent of patients were alive at 10 years. Significant survival advantage was seen in patients with SD/PR as compared to those who had progressive disease (PD) for each of these three criteria.

CONCLUSION

Biochemical, radiological (RECIST 1.1) and symptomatic assessment of disease status at 3 to 6 months after first I131-mIBG therapy stratifies patients with a poor prognosis. This can be used to identify patients who may benefit from alternative strategies of treatment.

Initial Assessment and Resuscitation in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding remains an important cause of hospital admission with an associated mortality of 2-14%. Initial patient evaluation includes rapid hemodynamic assessment, large-bore intravenous catheter insertion and volume resuscitation. A hemoglobin transfusion threshold of 7 g/dL is recommended, and packed red blood cell transfusion may be necessary to restore intravascular volume and improve tissue perfusion. Patients should be risk stratified into low- and high-risk categories, using validated prognostic scoring systems such as the Glasgow-Blatchford, AIMS65 or Rockall scores. Effective early management of acute, nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is critical for improving patient outcomes.

Late Consequences of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Follow-up

PURPOSE

Short-term outcomes have been well characterized in acute coronary syndromes; however, longer-term follow-up for the entire spectrum of these patients, including ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina, is more limited. Therefore, we describe the longer-term outcomes, procedures, and medication use in Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) hospital survivors undergoing 6-month and 2-year follow-up, and the performance of the discharge GRACE risk score in predicting 2-year mortality.

METHODS

Between 1999 and 2007, 70,395 patients with a suspected acute coronary syndrome were enrolled. In 2004, 2-year prospective follow-up was undertaken in those with a discharge acute coronary syndrome diagnosis in 57 sites.

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2007, 19,122 (87.2%) patients underwent follow-up; by 2 years postdischarge, 14.3% underwent angiography, 8.7% percutaneous coronary intervention, 2.0% coronary bypass surgery, and 24.2% were re-hospitalized. In patients with 2-year follow-up, acetylsalicylic acid (88.7%), beta-blocker (80.4%), renin-angiotensin system inhibitor (69.8%), and statin (80.2%) therapy was used. Heart failure occurred in 6.3%, (re)infarction in 4.4%, and death in 7.1%. Discharge-to-6-month GRACE risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality at 2 years (c-statistic 0.80).

CONCLUSION

In this large multinational cohort of acute coronary syndrome patients, there were important later adverse consequences, including frequent morbidity and mortality. These findings were seen in the context of additional coronary procedures and despite continued use of evidence-based therapies in a high proportion of patients. The discriminative accuracy of the GRACE risk score in hospital survivors for predicting longer-term mortality was maintained.

Assessing the clinical benefit of a nomogram to predict specimen-confined disease at radical prostatectomy in patients with high-risk prostate cancer: An external validation

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the current study was to test generalizability and clinical value of a recently published nomogram to predict specimen-confined disease (SCD, pT2-pT3a+R0+pN0) at radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients with clinical high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa). The nomogram allows improved decision making with curative intent within this heterogeneous patient cohort, which is important, as RP in patients with clinical HRPCa remains a topic of controversy.

METHODS

We externally validated the nomogram in 1,669 men with clinical HRPCa who underwent RP and extended pelvic lymph node dissection between 1992 and 2011. A Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate 5- and 10-year biochemical recurrence-free survival was performed. To investigate the SCD model׳s performance, the previously reported regression coefficients of the SCD nomogram were applied. Within loess calibration plots, the extent of overestimation or underestimation was graphically explored. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical value of the SCD nomogram was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 49% of men showed SCD after RP. The 5- and 10-year biochemical recurrence rates for men with SCD were 66% and 56%, respectively, vs. 32% and 20%, respectively, for men without SCD (log-rank test P<0.001). External validation demonstrated comparable accuracy in relation to accuracy derived from internal validation (68.1% vs. 72.0%). Calibration was suboptimal, showing a tendency to underestimate SCD probability. In DCA, the nomogram׳s usage was associated with a clinical net benefit relative to both treating all and none.

CONCLUSIONS

Within our cohort, the nomogram׳s use was associated with a clinical net benefit according to DCA. However, one-third of men were falsely classified as having SCD or non-SCD. Nevertheless, in the absence of superior tools, the SCD nomogram represents a useful clinical decision aid.

Clinical effectiveness of the systematic use of the GRACE scoring system (in addition to clinical assessment) for ischaemic outcomes and bleeding complications in the management of NSTEMI compared with clinical assessment alone: a prospective study

We assessed the interest of systematically using the GRACE scoring system (in addition to clinical assessment) for in- hospital outcomes and bleeding complications in the management of NSTEMI compared with clinical assessments alone. Multicentre, randomized study that included 572 consecutive NSTEMI patients, randomized 1:1, into group A: clinical stratification alone and group B: clinical+ GRACE score stratification.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

in-hospital outcomes and bleeding complications. There was no significant difference between the two groups for baseline data or for in-hospital MACE. In multivariate analysis, only a GRACE >140 (OR: 3.5, 95 % CI: 1.8-6.6, p < 0.001) and PCI (OR: 0.55, 95 % CI: 0.3-1.0; p = 0.05) were independent predictors of in-hospital MACE. The sub-analysis of group B showed that 56 patients (20 %) were given a compliance score of 0, showing that diagnostic angiography was performed later than as recommended by the guidelines. Interestingly, 91 % had a GRACE score >140, and these patients were significantly older, and were more likely to have a history of diabetes, stroke and renal failure, together with symptoms of heart failure. After multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of a lack of compliance with guideline delays were a GRACE score >140 (OR: 9.2; CI: 4.2-20.3, p < 0.001) and secondary referral from a non-PCI cardiology department (OR: 2.7; CI: 1.4-5.2, p = 0.003). In a real-world setting of patients admitted with NSTEMI, the systematic use of the GRACE scoring system at admission in the PCI centre does not improve in-hospital outcomes and bleeding complications.

Heart rate turbulence and deceleration capacity for risk prediction of serious arrhythmic events in Marfan syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Marfan syndrome (MFS) is associated with a substantial risk for ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We used heart rate turbulence (HRT) and deceleration capacity (DC), to evaluate the risk stratification for these patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 102 patients [45 male (44.1 %), age 40.5 ± 14.6 years] with MFS. Blood samples were obtained to determine N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. Transthoracic echocardiography studies were conducted to evaluate heart function parameters and a 24-h holter ECG was performed. An analysis of two HRT parameters, turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS), and DC was performed. Therefore, optimal cut-off values were calculated. Primary endpoint was the combination of SCD, ventricular arrhythmia and arrhythmogenic syncope. Secondary endpoint was total mortality.

RESULTS

During a follow-up of 1145 ± 491 days, 12 (11.7 %) patients reached the primary and 8 (7.8 %) patients the secondary endpoint. Patients reaching the primary were significantly older, had a higher burden of premature ventricular complexes and NT-proBNP levels and lower values of LVEF, DC and HRT TS. Multivariate analysis identified NT-proBNP (HR 1.25, 95 % CI 1.01-1.56, p = .04) and the abnormal HRT (abnormal TS and/or TO (HR 7.04, 95 % CI 1.07-46.27, p = .04) as independent risk predictor of arrhythmogenic events.

CONCLUSION

Patients with Marfan syndrome are at risk for severe ventricular arrhythmias and SCD. Abnormal HRT parameters and NT-proBNP values are independent risk factors for arrhythmogenic events and SCD. The assessment of these tools may help predicting SCD patients with MFS.

Salivary gland tumor fine-needle aspiration cytology: a proposal for a risk stratification classification

OBJECTIVES

Fine-needle aspiration (FNA) is useful in the evaluation of salivary gland tumors, but currently no standard terminology or risk stratification model exists.

METHODS

FNA smears were reviewed and categorized based on cytonuclear features, stromal characteristics, and background characteristics. Risk of malignancy was calculated for each category. Classifications as benign, neoplasm of uncertain malignant potential (NUMP), suspicious for malignancy, and positive for malignancy were used to aggregate categories into similar risk groups.

RESULTS

Categorization of salivary gland aspirates into morphologic categories resulted in the expected risk stratification. Grouping of categories maintained risk stratification, providing classes with malignancy risk as follows: benign, 2%; NUMP, 18%; suspicious for malignancy, 76%; and positive for malignancy, 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Salivary gland FNA categorization into commonly encountered morphologic categories provides risk stratification, which translates to a simplified classification scheme of benign, NUMP, suspicious, and positive for malignancy similar to the paradigm in other organ systems.

Biomarkers in Barrett's Esophagus: Role in Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Prediction of Response to Therapy

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased dramatically in the past 3 decades, making its precursor lesion Barrett's esophagus (BE) an important clinical problem. Effective interventions are available, but overall outcomes remain unchanged. Most of the BE population remains undiagnosed; most EACs are diagnosed late, and most BE patients will never progress to cancer. These epidemiologic factors make upper endoscopy an inefficient and ineffective strategy for BE diagnosis and risk stratification. In the current review, biomarkers for diagnosis, risk stratification, and predictors of response to therapy in BE are discussed.

Follow-up strategies for patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumour treated with or without adjuvant imatinib after surgery

BACKGROUND

Patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) are often followed up after surgery with longitudinally repeated imaging examinations to detect recurrence early. Studies on follow-up of GIST patients are few, the optimal follow-up methods are unknown and the recommendations for follow-up vary in guidelines.

METHODS

We reviewed the current evidence for follow-up of patients treated with surgery alone and of patients who were treated with adjuvant or neoadjuvant imatinib.

RESULTS

Imaging of the abdomen and the pelvis with computerised tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) usually suffices, since metastases are uncommon at other sites. The frequency of imaging may be adjusted with the risk of recurrence with time. Very low risk GISTs are very frequently cured with surgery and usually require no regular follow-up after complete surgery, and annual CT of the abdomen and the pelvis for 5 years suffices for most patients with a low to intermediate risk for recurrence. Most high-risk patients are treated with imatinib for at least 3 years after surgery. CT or MRI may be carried out 6-monthly during adjuvant imatinib, 3 to 4-monthly during the 2 years that follow discontinuation of imatinib when the risk of recurrence is high, and then at 6-12 month intervals to complete 10 years of follow-up. Recurrence after the first 10 years of follow-up is infrequent.

CONCLUSIONS

The follow-up schedules are best tailored with the risk of recurrence. The risk of recurrence should be estimated with the prognostic tools that consider the most relevant prognostic factors.

Relationship between different cardiovascular risk scores and measures of subclinical atherosclerosis in an Indian population

BACKGROUND

Relative accuracy of the various currently available cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment algorithms in Indian patients is not known.

METHODS

This study included 194 consecutive patients (mean age 49.6 ± 10.3 years, 84.5% males) attending a CV disease prevention clinic at a tertiary center in north India. Four risk assessment models [Framingham Risk score (RiskFRS), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (RiskACC/AHA), the 3rd iteration of Joint British Societies' risk calculator (RiskJBS) and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts (RiskWHO)] were applied. The estimated risk scores were correlated with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and coronary calcium score (CCS) using nonparametric statistics (Chi-square test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman rank correlation).

RESULTS

Overall, RiskACC/AHA and RiskWHO significantly underestimated CV risk as compared to RiskJBS and RiskFRS, with RiskJBS being the least likely to underestimate the risk (patients with coronary artery disease who were found to have ≥20% CV risk- 21.4% with RiskACC/AHA, 17.9% with RiskWHO, 41.4% with RiskFRS, and 58.6% with RiskJBS). Further, only RiskJBS and RiskFRS, but not RiskACC/AHA and RiskWHO, demonstrated consistent relationship with CIMT and CCS (Spearman rho 0.45 and 0.46 for RiskJBS and 0.39 and 0.36 for RiskFRS for CIMT and CCS respectively, all p values < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows that in Indian subjects RiskJBS appears to provide the most accurate estimation of CV risk. It least underestimates the risk and has the best correlation with CIMT and CCS. However, large-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer

OBJECTIVE

Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort.

METHODS

Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years.

CONCLUSION

The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping.

Predictors of intraoperative hypotension and bradycardia

BACKGROUND

Perioperative hypotension and bradycardia in the surgical patient are associated with adverse outcomes, including stroke. We developed and evaluated a new preoperative risk model in predicting intraoperative hypotension or bradycardia in patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery.

METHODS

Prospective data were collected in 193 patients undergoing elective, noncardiac surgery. Intraoperative hypotension was defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg for >5 minutes or a 35% decrease in the mean arterial blood pressure. Intraoperative bradycardia was defined as a heart rate of <60 beats/min for >5 minutes. A logistic regression model was developed for predicting intraoperative hypotension or bradycardia with bootstrap validation. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests.

RESULTS

A total of 127 patients developed hypotension or bradycardia. The average age of participants was 67.6 ± 11.3 years, and 59.1% underwent major surgery. A final 5-item score was developed, including preoperative Heart rate (<60 beats/min), preoperative hypotension (<110/60 mm Hg), Elderly age (>65 years), preoperative renin-Angiotensin blockade (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, or beta-blockers), Revised cardiac risk index (≥3 points), and Type of surgery (major surgery), entitled the "HEART" score. The HEART score was moderately predictive of intraoperative bradycardia or hypotension (odds ratio, 2.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-3.53; C-statistic, 0.75). Maximum points on the HEART score were associated with an increased likelihood ratio for intraoperative bradycardia or hypotension (likelihood ratio, +3.64).

CONCLUSIONS

The 5-point HEART score was predictive of intraoperative hypotension or bradycardia. These findings suggest a role for using the HEART score to better risk-stratify patients preoperatively and may help guide decisions on perioperative management of blood pressure and heart rate-lowering medications and anesthetic agents.

Development and validation of risk assessment models for diabetes-related complications based on the DCCT/EDIC data

AIM

To derive and validate a set of computational models able to assess the risk of developing complications and experiencing adverse events for patients with diabetes. The models are developed on data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) studies, and are validated on an external, retrospectively collected cohort.

METHODS

We selected fifty-one clinical parameters measured at baseline during the DCCT as potential risk factors for the following adverse outcomes: Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD), Hypoglycemia, Ketoacidosis, Microalbuminuria, Proteinuria, Neuropathy and Retinopathy. For each outcome we applied a data-mining analysis protocol in order to identify the best-performing signature, i.e., the smallest set of clinical parameters that, considered jointly, are maximally predictive for the selected outcome. The predictive models built on the selected signatures underwent both an interval validation on the DCCT/EDIC data and an external validation on a retrospective cohort of 393 diabetes patients (49 Type I and 344 Type II) from the Chorleywood Medical Center, UK.

RESULTS

The selected predictive signatures contain five to fifteen risk factors, depending on the specific outcome. Internal validation performances, as measured by the Concordance Index (CI), range from 0.62 to 0.83, indicating good predictive power. The models achieved comparable performances for the Type I and, quite surprisingly, Type II external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Data-mining analyses of the DCCT/EDIC data allow the identification of accurate predictive models for diabetes-related complications. We also present initial evidences that these models can be applied on a more recent, European population.

Relationship between CHA2DS2-VASc score and atrial electromechanical function in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

CHA2DS2-VASc score is the most widely preferred method for prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that CHA2DS2-VASc score may represent atrial remodeling status, and therefore echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical remodeling can be used to identify patients with high risk.

METHODS

A total of 65 patients who had documented diagnosis of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) were divided into three risk groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score: patients with low risk (score=0, group 1), with moderate risk (score=1, group 2), and with high risk score (score ≥2, group 3). We compared groups according to atrial electromechanical intervals and left atrium mechanical functions.

RESULTS

Atrial electromechanical intervals including inter-atrial and intra-atrial electromechanical delay were not different between groups. However, parameters reflecting atrial mechanical functions including LA phasic volumes (Vmax, Vmin and Vp) were significantly higher in groups 2 and 3 compared with group 1. Likewise, LA passive emptying volume (LATEV) in the groups 2 and 3 was significantly higher than low-risk group (14.12±8.13ml/m(2), 22.36±8.78ml/m(2), 22.89±7.23ml/m(2), p: 0.031). Univariate analysis demonstrated that Vmax, Vmin and Vp were significantly correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.428, r=0.456, r=0.451 and p<0.001). Also, LATEV (r=0.397, p=0.016) and LA active emptying volume (LAAEV) (r=0.281, p=0.023) were positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score. In the ROC analysis, Vmin≥11ml/m(2) has the highest predictive value for CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (88% sensitivity and 89% specificity; ROC area 0.88, p<0.001, CI [0.76-0.99]).

CONCLUSION

Echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical function might represent a useful method to identify patients with high risk.

Force-interval relationship predicts mortality in survivors of myocardial infarction with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

RR interval variations lead to beat-to-beat blood pressure differences through the myocardial force-interval relationship (FIR). In sinus rhythm, an altered FIR leads to post-extrasystolic potentiation (PESP) of systolic blood pressure, which has been shown to predict adverse outcome in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). The purpose of this study was (1) to develop a parameter to assess the FIR in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and (2) to investigate its association with mortality in MI survivors suffering from AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Thirty-two patients with acute MI and AF underwent 30-min recordings of ECG and continuous blood pressure. Episodes of a short RR interval (<80% of mean interval, RRi) preceding a long interval (>140%, RRi+1) were identified. The systolic pressures of the pulse waves following RRi and RRi+1 were labeled Pi and Pi+1. PESPAfib was calculated as (Pi+1-Pi)/(RRi+1-RRi). During 5years of follow-up, 13 patients died. When PESPAfib was dichotomized at the median, mortality rates were 63% and 19% in patients with high and low PESPAfib. Hazard ratio for mortality was 4.88 for patients with high PESPAfib (1.33-17.84, p=0.004). The association of PESPAfib and mortality was independent from LVEF, age, diabetes mellitus or mean heart rate.

CONCLUSIONS

PESPAfib, a measure for the FIR in patients with AF, can be derived from simultaneous ECG and blood pressure recordings. The results of this pilot study indicate that PESPAfib may be useful to predict adverse outcome in survivors of myocardial infarction suffering from AF.

Antithrombotic management of atrial fibrillation in the elderly

Older patients with atrial fibrillation have an increased risk of stroke and systemic embolism compare with younger patients. For most patients, oral anticoagulation remains the most effective way to reduce this risk. Although vitamin K antagonists have been used for decades, the more recent development of non-vitamin K-dependent oral anticoagulants provides clinicians with a broader selection of anticoagulants for stroke prevention in older patients with AF. This article discusses stroke risk-stratification tools for clinical decision making, reviews pharmacologic options for the prevention of stroke, and highlights several practical considerations to the use of these agents in older adults.

Risk stratification by the lower limit of normal of FEV1/FVC for postoperative outcomes in patients with COPD undergoing thoracic surgery

BACKGROUND

Mounting evidence suggests that airway obstruction defined by the lower limit of normal (LLN) of forced expiration volume in 1s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) might be an important predictor of mortality in patients with an FEV1/FVC ratio below 0.70. Although better risk stratification for postoperative outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) undergoing thoracic surgery is warranted, whether an FEV1/FVC ratio below 0.70 but above the LLN (i.e., in-between) could identify patients at risk for adverse postoperative outcomes has not been fully evaluated.

METHODS

To determine the clinical impact of this "in-between" group of patients with COPD, we evaluated whether classification of the in-between group and the COPD group with FEV1/FVC ratios below 0.70 and below the LLN could provide more accurate risk stratification for postoperative outcomes in COPD patients undergoing thoracic surgery.

RESULTS

The criterion of LLN classified 302 patients with an FEV1/FVC ratio below 0.70 into either the in-between group (124 cases) or the COPD group (178 cases). The COPD group showed a 3-fold increase in prolonged oxygen therapy (POT) and a 50% increase in prolonged postoperative stay (PPS), as compared with the in-between group, with an adjusted odds ratio of 3.068 (95% confidence interval: 1.806-5.213) for POT.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the finding that the in-between group could independently identify patients at risk for adverse postoperative outcomes, LLN assessment of the FEV1/FVC ratio might provide more accurate risk stratification in COPD patients undergoing thoracic surgery.

Risk reclassification analysis investigating the added value of fatigue to sickness absence predictions

Background

Prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) have been found to predict high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes during 1-year follow-up. More predictors of high SA are needed to improve these SA prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to investigate fatigue as new predictor in SA prognostic models by using risk reclassification methods and measures.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study with 1-year follow-up of 1,137 office workers. Fatigue was measured at baseline with the 20-item checklist individual strength and added to the existing SA prognostic models. SA days and episodes during 1-year follow-up were retrieved from an occupational health service register. The added value of fatigue was investigated with Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) measures.

Results

In total, 579 (51 %) office workers had complete data for analysis. Fatigue was prospectively associated with both high SA days and episodes. The NRI revealed that adding fatigue to the SA days model correctly reclassified workers with high SA days, but incorrectly reclassified workers without high SA days. The IDI indicated no improvement in risk discrimination by the SA days model. Both NRI and IDI showed that the prognostic model predicting high SA episodes did not improve when fatigue was added as predictor variable.

Conclusion

In the present study, fatigue increased false-positive rates which may reduce the cost-effectiveness of interventions for preventing SA.

Efficient and sparse feature selection for biomedical text classification via the elastic net: Application to ICU risk stratification from nursing notes

BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

Sparsity is often a desirable property of statistical models, and various feature selection methods exist so as to yield sparser and interpretable models. However, their application to biomedical text classification, particularly to mortality risk stratification among intensive care unit (ICU) patients, has not been thoroughly studied.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and characterize sparse classifiers based on the free text of nursing notes in order to predict ICU mortality risk and to discover text features most strongly associated with mortality.

METHODS

We selected nursing notes from the first 24h of ICU admission for 25,826 adult ICU patients from the MIMIC-II database. We then developed a pair of stochastic gradient descent-based classifiers with elastic-net regularization. We also studied the performance-sparsity tradeoffs of both classifiers as their regularization parameters were varied.

RESULTS

The best-performing classifier achieved a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.897 under the log loss function and full L2 regularization, while full L1 regularization used just 0.00025% of candidate input features and resulted in an AUC of 0.889. Using the log loss (range of AUCs 0.889-0.897) yielded better performance compared to the hinge loss (0.850-0.876), but the latter yielded even sparser models.

DISCUSSION

Most features selected by both classifiers appear clinically relevant and correspond to predictors already present in existing ICU mortality models. The sparser classifiers were also able to discover a number of informative - albeit nonclinical - features.

CONCLUSION

The elastic-net-regularized classifiers perform reasonably well and are capable of reducing the number of features required by over a thousandfold, with only a modest impact on performance.

Predictive role of circulating endothelial-derived microparticles in cardiovascular diseases

Endothelial-derived microparticles (EMPs) are a novel biological marker of endothelium injury and vasomotion disorders that are involved in pathogenesis of cardiovascular, metabolic, and inflammatory diseases. Circulating levels of EMPs are thought to reflect a balance between cell stimulation, proliferation, apoptosis, and cell death. Increased EMPs may be defined in several cardiovascular diseases, such as stable and unstable coronary artery disease, acute and chronic heart failure, hypertension, arrhythmias, thromboembolism, asymptomatic atherosclerosis as well as renal failure, metabolic disorders (including type two diabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity, metabolic syndrome, insulin resistance) and dyslipidemia. This review highlights the controversial opinions regarding impact of circulating EMPs in major cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and summarizes the perspective implementation of the EMPs in risk stratification models.