[The application of Markov chains to demographic projections in smaller geopolitical areas]

"This article deals with the use of Markov chains to project population in smaller geopolitical areas. The method consists of projecting only the relative distribution which, applied to a previous demographic projection, gives figures for the population by subregion. An algorithm is worked out, allowing for an estimate to be made of the transitional probabilities of the chain based on easily available data: the total population residing in two or more regions or states in only two specific moments. Once those probabilities have been determined, the projection of the probabilities and of the relative distribution is direct. This method is applied to the metropolitan zone of Mexico City, for which population and territorial extension are projected." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Societies in transition: mortality patterns in Pacific Island populations

The 22 Pacific Island countries and territories are in a state of demographic and epidemiological transition. Mortality data for the period around 1980 were collected from various sources and are presented in this comparative study. Because death registration in many Pacific countries is deficient some data have been adjusted for underenumeration; and some mortality estimates have been calculated by indirect means, using data from censuses or surveys. Cause of death information is affected by diagnostic inaccuracy and often tabulated in broad categories only; in some Pacific countries cause of death data are only available on hospital deaths. The less developed Melanesian malarious countries and the less developed dispersed atoll nations manifest higher mortality, and higher proportional mortality from infectious disease compared with other states. The more developed US-associated states, two New Zealand-associated states, and New Caledonian Europeans all have reasonably low mortality, and relatively high proportional mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Females have longer life expectancy at birth than males in all countries except Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The phosphate-rich island of Nauru presents an atypical picture with considerable adult male mortality from diseases associated with modernization.

[The impact of the demographic crunch on standards of living over the long term]

The long-term implications of the radical decline in fertility that has occurred in all modern industrial societies are analyzed, with particular reference to Canada. "On first approximation, calculations based on the Solow growth model predict a decline in the time path of aggregate consumption per adult that could reach 5 or 6 per cent in Canada in 2011-2016, but would become smaller thereafter. The demographic shock would therefore not generate economic tragedy. This result is the outcome of the opposite effects on aggregate consumption of the declining population growth rate and of the rising dependency ratio." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demographic characteristics of the Lambwe Valley population

Thirty-four per cent of the population (11,079) in the Lambwe Valley study site was under the age of 10, and 59% were under the age of 20. The population was equally divided among males and females (M/F 0.99). The crude birth rate averaged 45%; the death rate was 8% and the natural increase averaged 37%. Infant and child mortality was 66% and 108% respectively. The average household size was 8.4 individuals. The population migrated to the Lambwe Valley primarily from other areas in Kenya, although 13% were from Tanzania. The predominant tribal group was Luo (59%) followed by the Abasuba (38%). A few Luyha and Kisii were also encountered. Population increased by 3.5-fold in the 1960s, followed by a 2.5-fold increase in the 1970s. Due to an aerial spray tsetse control programme, sleeping sickness had a low prevalence in October 1981 (one of 5749). Of 339 individuals confirmed as sleeping sickness patients by hospital records from within the study site 320 (94.3%) were traced to their homes. Mortality in domestic cattle (40%), goats (47%), sheep (55%), and dogs (50%) had occurred over the previous two years during an outbreak of trypanosomiasis.

The relationships among labor-force participation, service-sector employment, and underemployment

"In this study, it is argued [that] underemployment is both affected by and affects the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) and the level of service employment. Interestingly, the analysis reveals that service employment lowers the LFPR and raises underemployment. In turn, underemployment increases the LFPR as more secondary workers are pushed into the labor market in an effort to support their households. Thus, secondary workers are not pulled into the labor market by the availability of service jobs, but are rather pushed into these jobs by the condition of underemployment that is brought on by the growing concentration of low-paying service jobs....A three-equation simultaneous equation model is developed to test our hypotheses [and] three-stage least squares...estimates of this model for the 100 largest [U.S.] metropolitan areas are presented...."

Projecting Igbo population to the year 2000 and beyond

"This study addresses the issues and the consequences of the growth of [the] Igbo population [of Nigeria] from the pre-colonial period to the year 2000 and beyond; it reveals that though the political crises of the Nigerian Civil War have reduced the tempo of the growth of the population, the high fertility rate observed in Igbo society will over time lead to a rapid recovery in the growth of the population." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)

Intraregional income distribution and poverty: some investigations for the Netherlands, 1960-81

"This paper is addressed to intraregional income inequalities in the Netherlands. Various concepts are used to measure the degree of regional poverty. In addition, dissimilarity between intraregional income distributions is studied. At the provincial level, relatively small and decreasing dissimilarities are observed. However, at lower spatial levels (especially within metropolitan areas) much larger dissimilarities in mean income and income distribution occur. In the Netherlands, urban poverty has become a more intense and widespread phenomenon than rural poverty."

A note on the estimation of marriage rate from census data

"The level and trend in nuptiality for the developing countries can not be studied because necessary data are not available. A broad idea of the trend is obtained by examining the never-married proportion for different age cohorts at different censuses. In this paper, a methodology for estimating age-specific marriage rates from census data is presented." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)

Predictability of demographic variables in the short run

In assessing the performance of population forecasts, it is useful to have a standard with which forecast errors can be compared. Univariate time series models may provide such a standard. Mean forecast errors of time series models indicate to what extent the movement of a variable could have been predicted from its own past. These errors show the degree of predictability that is attainable, at least in a given period. In this paper 3 time series methods (exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins method, and structural time series models) are applied to Dutch data on births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, and emigrants. The variability of prediction errors between different periods is examined. The possibility that univariate predictions can be improved by using quarterly or monthly data instead of annual data is tested.