The BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against new COVID-19 cases and complications of breakthrough cases: A nation-wide retrospective longitudinal multiple cohort analysis using individualised data

BACKGROUND

The rapid vaccination campaign against COVID-19 in Israel relied on the BNT162b2 vaccine. We performed a longitudinal analysis of multiple cohorts, using individual data, to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccine against new and breakthrough cases.

METHODS

We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) for 27 consecutive cohorts, each comprised of individuals vaccinated on specific days. VE against new COVID-19 cases was evaluated for five SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: infection, symptomatic disease, hospitalisation, severe/critical disease and death. For breakthrough cases, rate reduction was evaluated for hospitalisation, severe/critical disease and death. Outcomes were evaluated at predetermined time-periods after vaccination, the last one dedicated to individuals who became SARS-CoV-2-positive 22-28 days after the second dose.

FINDINGS

The highest VE estimates against new cases in ≥16 year old individuals, for all outcomes, were reached at the 15-21 day period after the second dose, ranging between 97.7% (95% CI: 95.9-98.7%) for deaths and 98.6% (95% CI: 97.8-99.1%) for severe/critical disease. VE estimates of the 14-20 day period after the first dose ranged between 54.3% (95% CI: 50.6-57.8%) for infection and 77.3% (95% CI: 71.2-82.1%) for severe/critical disease. VE rose more slowly among ≥80 year old individuals. Rate reductions of breakthrough complications were highest at the 22-28 day period after the second dose, ranging between 47.4% (95% CI: 4.3-71.2%) for death and 66.2% (95% CI: 44.2-79.6%) for severe/critical disease.

INTERPRETATION

The BNT162 vaccine is highly effective in preventing new SARS-CoV-2 cases. Among ≥80 year old individuals, high effectiveness develops more slowly. In breakthrough cases, vaccination reduces complications and death.

FUNDING

None.

Effectiveness of typhoid conjugate vaccine against culture-confirmed typhoid in a peri-urban setting in Karachi: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Enteric fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi and S. Paratyphi, is a cause of high morbidity and mortality among children in South Asia. Rising antimicrobial resistance presents an additional challenge. Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines (TCV) are recommended by the World Health Organization for use among people 6 months to 45 years old living in endemic settings. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of TCV against culture-confirmed S. Typhi in Lyari Town, Karachi, Pakistan. This peri-urban town was one of the worst affected by the outbreak of extensively drug resistant (XDR) typhoid that started in November 2016.

METHODS

A matched case-control study was conducted following a mass immunization campaign with TCV at three key hospitals in Lyari Town Karachi, Pakistan. Children aged 6 months to 15 years presenting with culture-confirmed S. Typhi were enrolled as cases. For each case, at least 1 age-matched hospital control and two age-matched community controls were enrolled. Adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 82 typhoid fever patients enrolled from August 2019 through December 2019, 8 (9·8%) had received vaccine for typhoid. Of the 164 community controls and 82 hospital controls enrolled, 38 (23·2%) community controls and 27 (32·9%) hospital controls were vaccinated for typhoid. The age and sex-adjusted vaccine effectiveness was found to be 72% (95% CI: 34% - 88%). The consumption of meals prepared outside home more than once per month (adjusted odds ratio: 3·72, 95% CI: 1·55- 8·94; p-value: 0·003) was associated with the development of culture-confirmed typhoid.

CONCLUSION

A single dose of TCV is effective against culture confirmed typhoid among children aged 6 months to 15 years old in an XDR typhoid outbreak setting of a peri-urban community in Karachi, Pakistan.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness within prospective cohorts of healthcare personnel in Israel and Peru 2016-2019

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among healthcare personnel (HCP).

METHODS

HCP with direct patient contact working full-time in hospitals were followed during three influenza seasons in Israel (2016-2017 to 2018-2019) and Peru (2016 to 2018). Trivalent influenza vaccines were available at all sites, except during 2018-2019 when Israel used quadrivalent vaccines; vaccination was documented by electronic medical records, vaccine registries, and/or self-report (for vaccinations outside the hospital). Twice-weekly active surveillance identified acute respiratory symptoms or febrile illness (ARFI); self-collected respiratory specimens were tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. IVE was 100 × 1-hazard ratio (adjusted for sex, age, occupation, and hospital).

RESULTS

Among 5,489 HCP who contributed 10,041 person-seasons, influenza vaccination coverage was 47% in Israel and 32% in Peru. Of 3,056 ARFIs in Israel and 3,538 in Peru, A or B influenza virus infections were identified in 205 (7%) in Israel and 87 (2.5%) in Peru. IVE against all viruses across seasons was 1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -30%, 25%) in Israel and 12% (95% CI = -61%, 52%) in Peru.

CONCLUSION

Estimates of IVE were null using person-time models during six study seasons in Israel and Peru.

Vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, Norway, April to August 2021

Some variants of SARS-CoV-2 are associated with increased transmissibility, increased disease severity or decreased vaccine effectiveness (VE). In this population-based cohort study (n = 4,204,859), the Delta variant was identified in 5,430 (0.13%) individuals, of whom 84 were admitted to hospital. VE against laboratory confirmed infection with the Delta variant was 22.4% among partly vaccinated (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.0-27.4) and 64.6% (95% CI: 60.6-68.2) among fully vaccinated individuals, compared with 54.5% (95% CI: 50.4-58.3) and 84.4% (95%CI: 81.8-86.5) against the Alpha variant.

COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study

Background: COVID-19 elimination measures, including border closures have been applied in New Zealand. We have modelled the potential effect of vaccination programmes for opening borders. Methods: We used a deterministic age-stratified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model. We minimised spread by varying the age-stratified vaccine allocation to find the minimum herd immunity requirements (the effective reproduction number R_eff<1 with closed borders) under various vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios and R₀ values. We ran two-year open-border simulations for two vaccine strategies: minimising R_eff and targeting high-risk groups. Findings: Targeting of high-risk groups will result in lower hospitalisations and deaths in most scenarios. Reaching the herd immunity threshold (HIT) with a vaccine of 90% VE against disease and 80% VE against infection requires at least 86•5% total population uptake for R₀=4•5 (with high vaccination coverage for 30-49-year-olds) and 98•1% uptake for R₀=6. In a two-year open-border scenario with 10 overseas cases daily and 90% total population vaccine uptake (including 0-15 year olds) with the same vaccine, the strategy of targeting high-risk groups is close to achieving HIT, with an estimated 11,400 total hospitalisations (peak 324 active and 36 new daily cases in hospitals), and 1,030 total deaths. Interpretation: Targeting high-risk groups for vaccination will result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths with open borders compared to targeting reduced transmission. With a highly effective vaccine and a high total uptake, opening borders will result in increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Other public health and social measures will still be required as part of an effective pandemic response. Funding: This project was funded by the Health Research Council [20/1018]. Research in context.

Exploring the reasons for low pertussis vaccine effectiveness in Ontario, Canada, 2006-2008: a Canadian Immunization Research Network study

OBJECTIVES

Although pertussis vaccines have been widely used for many decades, a burden of illness persists. Resurgences in Ontario, Canada, have not been substantial in the past decade, but an outbreak of pertussis occurred in Toronto between 1 October 2005 and 31 March 2006. Previous Ontario studies found high vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the initial years post-immunization. In order to explore the impact of outbreaks and external factors on VE, we investigated pertussis VE during the period 2006-2008.

METHODS

We assessed pertussis VE using a frequency-matched case-control study for the period 1 March 2006 to 31 December 2008. We used logistic regression to estimate VE by age, time since last vaccination, and vaccination status according to the Ontario recommended schedule. We compared analyses including and excluding cases from Toronto, and to two recent Ontario pertussis VE studies.

RESULTS

We included 1797 confirmed cases and 7188 matched controls. Most cases were under 4 years of age during the study period. Pertussis VE was 3.8% (95% CI: - 21.0, 24.0) in the period 15-364 days following the last pertussis vaccine dose, and increased with increasing time since vaccination. Pertussis VE in the first 15-364 days excluding Toronto increased to 57.1% (95% CI: 26.0, 75.1), but the trend of increasing VE with time since vaccination persisted. Although VE was higher in older (6-11 years) than younger (0-5 years) children, it was lower at 12-13 years than after 14 years.

CONCLUSION

VE was lower in comparison with other studies conducted in Ontario, particularly in younger children. Various factors occurring during the study period may have influenced the results, including clinical testing of asymptomatic contacts, laboratory testing and methods and reporting practice, and a sensitive case definition. Further studies are needed to optimize methods for measuring VE to inform pertussis vaccine policy.

Effectiveness of maternal pertussis vaccination in protecting newborn: A matched case-control study

INTRODUCTION

The objective was to estimate the effectiveness of maternal pertussis vaccination in protecting infants aged < 2 months.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study. Laboratory-confirmed cases aged <8 weeks at disease onset were identified and 2-4 matched-controls born within ± 15 days of the case were included. Information was obtained from healthcare providers and maternal interviews. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as (1 - OR) × 100%.

RESULTS

47 cases and 124 controls were studied. The mean age (in days) (39.8 ± 12.7 vs. 40.8 ± 13.2), weeks of gestation (38.8 vs. 39.1, p = 0.43) and mean birth weight (3.309 vs. 3.253 kg, p = 0.55) were comparable between cases and controls. Mothers of cases were less frequently vaccinated in the third trimester (59.6% vs. 83.9%, p <0.001). The VE of maternal vaccination in pregnancy was 88.0% (95%CI 53.8% -96.5%), and was slightly higher in those vaccinated before the 32nd week of gestation (88.5% vs 87.8%).

CONCLUSION

Pertussis vaccination in pregnancy is very effective in reducing pertussis in children aged < 2 months. Vaccination before and after the 32nd week of pregnancy are equally effective in reducing the risk of pertussis.

Does BCG provide long-term protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection? A case-control study in Quebec, Canada

Background

Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, before severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines became available, it was hypothesized that BCG (Bacillus Calmette–Guérin), which stimulates innate immunity, could provide protection against SARS-CoV-2. Numerous ecological studies, plagued by methodological deficiencies, revealed a country-level association between BCG use and lower COVID-19 incidence and mortality. We aimed to determine whether BCG administered in early life decreased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adulthood and the severity of COVID-19.

Methods

This case-control study was conducted in Quebec, Canada. Cases were patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test performed at two hospitals between March–October 2020. Controls were identified among patients with non-COVID-19 samples processed by the same microbiology laboratories during the same period. Enrolment was limited to individuals born in Quebec between 1956 and 1976, whose vaccine status was accessible in a computerized registry of 4.2 million BCG vaccinations.

Results

We recruited 920 cases and 2123 controls. Fifty-four percent of cases (n = 424) and 53% of controls (n = 1127) had received BCG during childhood (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.89–1.21), while 12% of cases (n = 114) and 11% of controls (n = 235) had received two or more BCG doses (OR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.88–1.46). After adjusting for age, sex, material deprivation, recruiting hospital and occupation there was no evidence of protection conferred by BCG against SARS-CoV-2 (AOR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.84–1.21). Among cases, 77 (8.4%) needed hospitalization and 18 (2.0%) died. The vaccinated were as likely as the unvaccinated to require hospitalization (AOR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.62–1.67) or to die (AOR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.32–2.39).

Conclusions

BCG does not provide long-term protection against symptomatic COVID-19 or severe forms of the disease.

Agreement between state registry, health record, and self-report of influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Documentation of influenza vaccination, including the specific product received, is critical to estimate annual vaccine effectiveness (VE).

METHODS

We assessed performance of the Michigan Care Improvement Registry (MCIR) in defining influenza vaccination status relative to documentation by provider records or self-report among subjects enrolled in a study of influenza VE from 2011 through 2019.

RESULTS

The specificity and positive predictive value of MCIR were high; however, >10% of vaccinations were identified only by other sources each season. The proportion of records captured by MCIR increased from a low of 67% in 2013-2014 to a high of 89% in 2018-2019, largely driven by increased capture of vaccination among adults.

CONCLUSIONS

State vaccine registries, such as MCIR, are important tools for documenting influenza vaccination, including the specific product received. However, incomplete capture suggests that documentation from other sources and self-report should be used in combination with registries to reduce misclassification.

Effectiveness of a single dose of Japanese encephalitis vaccine among adults, Assam, India, 2012-2018

BACKGROUND

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) remains the major etiology of encephalitis throughout Asia. In India, the state of Assam alone contributes more than one-third of the national burden of JE. Between 2011 and 2014, a single dose of JE vaccine SA 14-14-2 (LAJEV) was administered among adults aged 15-65 years residing in Sivasagar and Dibrugarh districts of Assam, India. We monitored the trend of JE incidence between 2009 and 2018 using JE surveillance data, estimated the long-term effectiveness of the single dose of LAJEV and estimated the coverage of JE vaccine in two districts.

METHODS

We compared the JE vaccination status of laboratory-confirmed hospitalized JE patients (case) and age, sex and locality matched healthy individuals (controls) to estimate the effectiveness of single dose of JE vaccine. We used surveillance data for 2009-2018 to calculate the incidence of JE among adults. We conducted a community-based survey to estimate the coverage of JE vaccine in the two districts.

RESULTS

A total of 452 laboratory-confirmed JE case-patients and 904 matched healthy controls were enrolled in the study between 2012 and 2018. The effectiveness of a single dose of JE vaccine over the 7-year period was 77.0 (95% CI: 67.0-83.0). Vaccine effectiveness decreased from 91% (95% CI: 73.0-97.0) in first year of vaccination to 71% (95% CI: 21.0-90.0) at six years post-vaccination. The incidence of adults JE cases declined from 10.5 per 100,000 in the pre-vaccination period to 5.7 per 100,000 in the years following vaccination. The coverage of vaccine among adults in two districts was 40.1% (36.8-43.5).

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of JE vaccine offered adequate protection for at least six years. Conducting mass vaccination campaigns periodically would further reduce the incidence of JE in endemic districts in Assam.

Effectiveness of ChAdOx1 nCOV-19 Vaccine: Experience of a tertiary care institute

Background

The first dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV- 19 Corona Virus Vaccine (Covishield) was administered to the eligible beneficiaries of tertiary care institute of Western Maharashtra on 16 Jan 21 and in the past three months almost 97% of the staff has been vaccinated. The present study analyses the incidence of COVID cases in the unvaccinated and vaccinated population of the institute.

Methods

All Covid 19 infections (RT-PCR positive) from 01 February 21 to 25 April 21 were included in the study and analyzed as per their vaccination status. To assess the COVID 19 transmission in contacts, Secondary Attack Rates (SAR) of the pre-vaccination period (Jun–Oct 20) was compared with the present SAR.

Results

A total of 113 cases occurred in the study period (01 Feb to 25 Apr 21). Lower number of infections were observed among the fully vaccinated as compared to partially vaccinated and non-vaccinated. The overall vaccine effectiveness was found to be 88.6% (81.55–92.37) and 44.1% (4.55–67.3) in completely and partially vaccinated individuals respectively. Hazard Ratios for getting infected dropped significantly after 28 days of the second dose. The SAR in high risk contacts (HRCs) was found to be 4.25%, which was lower than SAR (20.6%) of pre-vaccination period.

Conclusion

This is one of the earliest studies in India to report the impact of COVID-19 vaccination. The results indicate that the vaccine provides effective protection against COVID-19 infection. However, given the complex dynamics of vaccination, the role of NPIs and implementation of COVID appropriate behavior cannot be undermined.

COVISHIELD (AZD1222) VaccINe effectiveness among healthcare and frontline Workers of INdian Armed Forces: Interim results of VIN-WIN cohort study

Background

On 16 Jan 2021, India launched its immunization program against COVID-19. Among the first recipients were 1.59 million Health Care Workers (HCWs) and Frontline Workers (FLWs) of the Indian Armed Forces, who were administered COVISHIELD (Astra Zeneca). We present an interim analysis of vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates till 30 May 2021.

Methods

The VIN-WIN cohort study was carried out on anonymized data of HCWs and FLWs of Indian Armed Forces. The existing surveillance system, enhanced for COVID-19 monitoring, was sourced for data. The cohort transitioned from Unvaccinated (UV) to Partially Vaccinated (PV) to Fully Vaccinated (FV), serving as its own internal comparison. Outcomes studied in the three groups were breakthrough infections and COVID related deaths. Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) was used to compare outcomes among the three groups to estimate VE.

Results

Data of 1,595,630 individuals (mean age 27.6 years; 99% male) over 135 days was analysed. Till 30 May 21, 95.4% and 82.2% were partially and fully vaccinated. The UV, PV and FV compartments comprised 106.6, 46.7 and 58.7 million person-days respectively. The number of breakthrough cases in the UV, PV and FV groups were 10061, 1159 and 2512; while the deaths were 37, 16 and 7 respectively. Corrected VE was 91.8–94.9% against infections.

Conclusion

Interim results of the VIN-WIN cohort study of 1.59 million HCWs and FLWs of Indian Armed Forces showed a ∼93% reduction in COVID-19 breakthrough infections with COVISHIELD vaccination.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children in Hong Kong, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus infections can cause hospitalizations in children, and annual vaccination of children can provide protection against influenza.

METHODS

We analyzed a test-negative design study with data spanning from 2010/11 through 2019/20 to evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza hospitalization in children by age group, influenza type/subtype and time period within each season. We enrolled children admitted to hospital with acute febrile respiratory illnesses. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested by culture and/or RT-PCR to determine influenza status, and vaccination status was obtained by interviewing parents or legal guardians and was verified where possible. VE was estimated by conditional logistic regression model adjusting for sex, age and age-squared, matching on week.

RESULTS

Influenza seasons in Hong Kong are prolonged with influenza-associated hospitalizations occurring in almost every month of the year during the study period. Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations in children of all ages. Influenza VE was higher in younger children than in older children, and higher against hospitalization due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 than A(H3N2) and B.

CONCLUSIONS

The childhood influenza vaccination program in Hong Kong has prevented influenza-associated hospitalizations particularly in younger children. Our findings support the use of influenza vaccines in children as an effective approach to influenza control and prevention.

Impact of original, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351/P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineages on vaccine effectiveness of two doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines: Results from a nationwide case-control study in France

Background

We aimed to assess the effectiveness of two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 with the original virus and other lineages circulating in France.

Methods

In this nationwide case-control study, cases were SARS-CoV-2 infected adults with onset of symptoms between 14 February and 3 May 2021. Controls were non-infected adults from a national representative panel matched to cases by age, sex, region, population density and calendar week. Participants completed an online questionnaire on recent activity-related exposures and vaccination history. Information about the infecting virus was based on a screening RT-PCR for either B.1.1.7 or B.1.351/P.1 variants.

Findings

Included in our analysis were 7 288 adults infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, 31 313 with the B.1.1.7 lineage, 2 550 with B.1.351/P1 lineages, and 3 644 controls. In multivariable analysis, the vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence interval) seven days after the second dose of mRNA vaccine was estimated at 88% (81-92), 86% (81-90) and 77% (63-86) against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively. Recent (2 to 6 months) history of virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was found to be 83% (76-88), 88% (85-91) and 83% (71-90) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively; and more distant (> 6 months) infections were 76% (54-87), 84% (75-90), and 74% (41-89) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively.

Interpretation

In real-life settings, two doses of mRNA vaccines proved to be effective against COVID-19 with the original virus, B.1.1.7 lineage and B.1.351/P.1 lineages.

Funding

Institut Pasteur, Research & Action Emerging Infectious Diseases (REACTing), Fondation de France (Alliance “Tous unis contre le virus”).

BNT162b2 vaccine breakthrough: clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel

Objectives

The mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have shown high effectiveness in the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19, hospitalization, severe disease and death. Nevertheless, a minority of vaccinated individuals might become infected and experience significant morbidity. Characteristics of vaccine breakthrough infections have not been studied. We sought to portray the population of Israeli patients, who were hospitalized with COVID-19 despite full vaccination.

Methods

A retrospective multicentre cohort study of 17 hospitals included patients fully vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162b2 vaccine who developed COVID-19 more than 7 days after the second vaccine dose and required hospitalization. The risk for poor outcome, defined as a composite of mechanical ventilation or death, was assessed.

Results

A total of 152 patients were included, accounting for half of hospitalized fully vaccinated patients in Israel. Poor outcome was noted in 38 patients and mortality rate reached 22% (34/152). Notably, the cohort was characterized by a high rate of co-morbidities predisposing to severe COVID-19, including hypertension (108; 71%), diabetes (73; 48%), congestive heart failure (41; 27%), chronic kidney and lung diseases (37; 24% each), dementia (29; 19%) and cancer (36; 24%), and only six (4%) had no co-morbidities. Sixty (40%) of the patients were immunocompromised. Higher viral load was associated with a significant risk for poor outcome. Risk also appeared higher in patients receiving anti-CD20 treatment and in patients with low titres of anti-Spike IgG, but these differences did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusions

We found that severe COVID-19 infection, associated with a high mortality rate, might develop in a minority of fully vaccinated individuals with multiple co-morbidities. Our patients had a higher rate of co-morbidities and immunosuppression compared with previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. Further characterization of this vulnerable population may help to develop guidance to augment their protection, either by continued social distancing, or by additional active or passive vaccinations.

Evaluation of post-introduction COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness: Summary of interim guidance of the World Health Organization

Phase 3 randomized-controlled trials have provided promising results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, ranging from 50 to 95% against symptomatic disease as the primary endpoints, resulting in emergency use authorization/listing for several vaccines. However, given the short duration of follow-up during the clinical trials, strict eligibility criteria, emerging variants of concern, and the changing epidemiology of the pandemic, many questions still remain unanswered regarding vaccine performance. Post-introduction vaccine effectiveness evaluations can help us to understand the vaccine's effect on reducing infection and disease when used in real-world conditions. They can also address important questions that were either not studied or were incompletely studied in the trials and that will inform evolving vaccine policy, including assessment of the duration of effectiveness; effectiveness in key subpopulations, such as the very old or immunocompromised; against severe disease and death due to COVID-19; against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern; and with different vaccination schedules, such as number of doses and varying dosing intervals. WHO convened an expert panel to develop interim best practice guidance for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluations. We present a summary of the interim guidance, including discussion of different study designs, priority outcomes to evaluate, potential biases, existing surveillance platforms that can be used, and recommendations for reporting results.

Prevalence of Latent TB and Effectiveness of BCG Vaccination Against Latent Tuberculosis: An Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in immigrant children and adolescents (aged 0-17 years) living or recently arriving in Sweden. It also aimed to estimate the effectiveness of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against LTBI in immigrant children coming to Sweden from high-incidence countries, most of them being asylum seekers. LTBI was defined as a positive Quantiferon or a tuberculin skin test (TST) of ≥ 10 mm in small children from whom it was difficult to obtain 3 mL of blood.

DESIGN

A typical BCG scar was used as a substitute for written documentation of BCG vaccination. The study comprised 1,404 immigrants aged 0-17 years. The arms and legs of all of them were inspected for a BCG scar, and Quantiferon or TST was performed. The study was a retrospective, observational, comparative cohort study.

RESULTS

LTBI was found in 123 of 1,011 (12%) children with a BCG scar and in 116 of 393 (29.5%) without a BCG scar, giving an estimated vaccine effectiveness of 59%.

CONCLUSIONS

LTBI was common among the immigrant children (17%). LTBI can progress to active TB and then spread in the immigrant population and to the general population if all immigrant arrivals are not tested and given prophylactic treatment if they have LTBI. The BCG vaccine was found to have a significant effect on LTBI (59%).

Two-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in China: a meta-analysis and evidence quality assessment

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this review were to evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the two-dose varicella vaccine for healthy children in China and explore the application of the approach of Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) in observational studies on VE.

METHODS

We searched for observational studies on two-dose varicella VE for children in China aged 1-12 years that were published from 1997 to 2019, and assessed the quality of each study using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS). We used meta-analysis models to obtain the pooled two-dose VE, and the studies were divided into subgroups and analysed according to whether or not it was an outbreak investigation and its NOS score. The quality of evidence of VEs were rated by approach of the GRADE system.

RESULTS

A total of 12 studies and 87,196 individuals were included. The pooled two-dose VE was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 69-97%). The VE of outbreak studies (87% [95% CI: 76-93%]) was lower than non-outbreak studies (99% [95% CI: 98-99%]). There was no significant difference in VEs by different NOS quality. The quality of the evidence assessment of pooled two-dose VE was "low", which was rated down by one category in limitations and publication bias respectively and rated up by two category in large effect. The quality of evidence assessment in subgroup of NOS score ≥ 7 was "moderate".

CONCLUSIONS

The VE of two-dose varicella vaccine is relatively high in preventing varicella, and is recommended for countries which need further control for varicella. However, higher quality evidence is needed as a supplement for stronger recommendations. The approach of GRADE could be applied for rating the quality of evidence in observational study.

Effectiveness of the recombinant zoster vaccine among Kaiser Permanente Hawaii enrollees aged 50 and older: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) has been on the rise for decades in the United States. Clinical trials for the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) demonstrated vaccine efficacy of over 90% in preventing herpes zoster. However, there is limited information on its effectiveness outside of a clinical trial setting, as well as its effectiveness against herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO).

METHODS

A de-identified electronic health records database from Kaiser Permanente Hawaii (KPH) was used to conduct this retrospective cohort study to assess the effectiveness of the recombinant zoster vaccine against HZ and HZO in immunocompetent, vaccine age-eligible individuals without a prior history of HZ, who were continuously enrolled in KPH for ≥365 days prior to becoming age-eligible for RZV between January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 78 356 adults were included in this study, with 11 864 (15.1%) adults receiving two valid doses of the recombinant zoster vaccine. The incidence rate of HZ was 325.6 (95% CI: 217.7 to 464.4) cases per 100 000 person-years in vaccinated persons compared to 1063.3 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI: 1006.0 to 1122.8) in the unvaccinated group. The incidence rate of HZO was 11.9 (95% CI: 0.7 to 52.3) cases per 100 000 person-years in the vaccinated group compared to 72.1 (95% CI: 58.0 to 88.3) in the unvaccinated group. RZV was 83.5% (95% CI: 74.9% to 89.2%) effective against HZ and 93.3% (95% CI: 48.7% to 99.1%) effective against HZO.

CONCLUSIONS

RZV has demonstrated high effectiveness against both HZ and HZO outside of a clinical trial setting in the United States. Vaccine coverage is low, emphasizing the need for public health efforts to increase vaccination to reduce morbidity from HZ and HZO.

Brand-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates during 2019/20 season in Europe - Results from the DRIVE EU study platform

DRIVE (Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness) is an IMI funded public-private platform that aims to annually estimate brand-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE), for public health and regulatory purposes. IVE analyses and reporting are conducted by public partners in the consortium. In 2019/20, four primary care-based test-negative design (TND) studies (Austria, England, Italy (n = 2)), eight hospital-based TND studies (Finland, France, Italy, Romania, Spain (n = 4)), and one population-based cohort study (Finland) were conducted. The COVID-19 pandemic affected influenza surveillance in all participating study sites, therefore the study period was truncated on February 29, 2020. Age-stratified (6 m-17y, 18-64y, ≥65y), confounder-adjusted, site-specific adjusted IVE estimates were calculated and pooled through meta-analysis. Parsimonious confounder-adjustment was performed, adjusting the estimates for age, sex and calendar time. TND studies included 3531 cases (351 vaccinated) and 5546 controls (1415 vaccinated) of all ages. IVE estimates were available for 8/11 brands marketed in Europe in 2019. Most children and adults < 64y were captured in primary care setting and the most frequently observed vaccine brand was Vaxigrip Tetra. The estimate against any influenza for Vaxigrip Tetra in primary care setting was 61% (95%CI 38-77) in children and 32% (95%CI -13-59) in adults up to 64y. Most adults ≥ 65y were captured in hospital setting and the most frequently observed brand was Fluad, with an estimate of 52% (95%CI 27-68). The population-based cohort covered 511,854 person-years and two vaccine brands. In children aged 2-6y, the IVE against any influenza was 68% (95%CI 58-75) for Fluenz Tetra and 71% (56-80) for Vaxigrip Tetra. In adults ≥ 65y, IVE against any influenza was 29% (20-36) for Vaxigrip Tetra. DRIVE is a growing platform. Public health institutes with surveillance data and hospitals in countries with high influenza vaccine coverage are encouraged to join DRIVE.

Does influenza vaccination attenuate the severity of breakthrough infections? A narrative review and recommendations for further research

The effect of influenza vaccination on influenza severity remains uncertain. We reviewed the literature for evidence to inform the question of whether influenza illness is less severe among individuals who received influenza vaccination compared with individuals with influenza illness who were unvaccinated prior to their illnesses. We conducted a narrative review to identify published findings comparing severity of influenza outcomes by vaccination status among community-dwelling adults and children ≥ 6 months of age with laboratory-confirmed influenza illness. When at least four effect estimates of the same type (e.g., odds ratio) were available for a specific outcome and age category (children versus adults), data were pooled with meta-analysis to generate a summary effect estimate. We identified 38 published articles reporting ≥ 1 association between influenza vaccination status and one of 21 indicators of severity of influenza illness among individuals with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Study methodologies and effect estimates were highly heterogenous, with only five severity indicators meeting criteria for calculating a combined effect. Among eight studies, influenza vaccination was associated with 26% reduction in odds of ICU admission among adults with influenza-associated hospitalization (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.58, 0.93). Among five studies of adults with influenza-associated hospitalization, vaccinated patients had 31% reduced risk of death compared with unvaccinated patients (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.92). Among four studies of children with influenza virus infection, vaccination was associated with an estimated 45% reduction in the odds of manifesting fever (OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.42, 0.71). Vaccination was not significantly associated with receiving a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia among adults hospitalized with influenza (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.82, 1.04) or with risk of hospitalization following outpatient influenza illness among adults (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.28, 1.28). Overall, our findings support the hypothesis that influenza vaccination may attenuate the course of disease among individuals with breakthrough influenza virus infection.

Factors influencing the effectiveness of the Gudair vaccine for controlling Johne's disease in sheep flocks in Australia

Ovine Johne's disease is a chronic debilitating disease of sheep caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Mptb) which results in diarrhoea, emaciation and mortalities in infected animals. Vaccination with Gudair® has been a key strategy for controlling the disease in Australia since its approval in 2002. Previous research conducted in Australia has demonstrated that the vaccine is quite effective in reducing sheep mortalities. While some farms have also been successful in reducing the prevalence of the disease in their flocks to undetectable levels, sheep in other flocks continue to shed Mptb in faeces even after an ongoing vaccination program . This study was conducted to investigate management, husbandry and biosecurity factors associated with paratuberculosis infection in Gudair® vaccinated sheep flocks in Australia. We enrolled 64 sheep farmers and interviewed them to obtain information about their management and biosecurity practices. Pooled faecal samples were collected from sheep at each farm and cultured to create two outcome variables: Mptb positive (yes/no) and disease prevalence level (nil, < 1 %, ≥ 1 %). Binary and ordinal logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the association of management, husbandry and biosecurity factors with these outcome variables. Farms were more likely to have Mptb positive sheep and a higher disease prevalence in their flocks if they: (a) provided supplementary feed on the ground (instead of in a trough); (b) had a greater number of neighbours with sheep; and (c) had introduced rams from a greater number of sources. The results suggest the effectiveness of Gudair® vaccination to control OJD can be improved if sheep producers maintain other risk management strategies and biosecurity practices. Extension agencies should advise farmers not to relax their biosecurity practices and to purchase rams from only low-risk sources, even if they are continuing to vaccinate their flocks.

The effect of seasonal influenza vaccine on medically-attended influenza and non-influenza respiratory viruses infections at primary care level, Hong Kong SAR, 2017/18 to 2019/20

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) varies with the degree of matching with the vaccine and circulating viruses. We continued our SIV effectiveness against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) under the Department of Health Hong Kong's sentinel private medical practitioners (PMP) network, using the test-negative case-control design, for the 2018/19 and 2019/20 season. In addition, we studied the potential interference between SIV and ILI caused by non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRV) based on data collated from 2017/18 to 2019/20 seasons. 3404 patients were analysed. Across the 2017/18 to 2019/20 seasons, the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of SIV was 44% (95% CI 30-56%) against pan-negative controls, 57% (95%CI. 42-68%) against NIRV controls and 50% (95%CI 38-59%) against both. SIV was moderately effective against medically-attended ILI caused by influenza A/B in both 2018/19 and 2019/20 winter seasons (53.2% (95%CI 36.7-65.5%) and 41.8% (95%CI 6.3-64.1%), respectively). The VE against the main circulating subtype, influenza A(H1), was higher for the 2018/19 season (57.2% (95%CI 39.8-69.9%), compared to 34.6% (95%CI -9.6-61.4%) in the 2019/20 season). When compared to pan negative controls, those with single NIRV infections were similarly likely to have received SIV (OR 1.05 (95%CI 0.72-1.54) within the influenza season; OR 0.97 (95%CI 0.73-1.29) when including non-influenza seasons). Analyses by type of virus showed no increased risk of SIV identified among those with single infections of EV/RV, HMPV and parainfluenza but a 2-fold increased risk was shown for those with single infections of adenovirus and parainfluenza virus (adenovirus: OR 2.54 (95%CI 1.24-5.14) within influenza season and OR 1.78 (95%CI 1.01-3.09) for the whole period; parainfluenza virus: OR 2.01 (95%CI 1.22-3.29) within influenza season and OR 1.89 (95%CI 1.29-2.76) for the whole period). SIV programme and surveillance of influenza and NIRV, including SARS-CoV-2, should continue during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pertussis vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection - A systematic review and meta-analysis

A comprehensive review of observational pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies is needed to update gaps from previous reviews. We conducted a systematic review of VE and duration of protection studies for the whole-cell (wP) and acellular (aP) pertussis vaccines and conducted a formal meta-analysis using random effects models. Evidence continues to suggest that receipt of any pertussis vaccine confers protection in the short-term against disease although this protection wanes rapidly for aP vaccine. We detected significant heterogeneity in pooled estimates due, in part, to factors such as bias and confounding which may be mitigated by study design. Our review of possible sources of heterogeneity may help interpretation of other VE studies and aid design decisions in future pertussis VE research.

[Effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162b2 vaccine to preventing covid-19 in healthcare personnel.]

OBJECTIVE

A first protective dose of vaccine may allow delaying the second dose in a context of low supply. The objective is to assess the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 (BNT162b2) after twelve days of its administration in healthcare personnel (HCP) of a Health Department.

METHODS

A case-control study was made. HCP with suspected COVID-19 and HCP close contacts of COVID-19 cases were included between January 27 and February 7, 2021. They were PCR tested for SARS-CoV-2; those with positive PCR were considered cases and those with negative PCR were considered controls. The crude (VE) and adjusted (VEa) vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 cases and their 95% confidence interval were calculated using the formula VE = (1-Odds ratio) x 100.

RESULTS

268 HCP were included, of which 70 (26.1%) were considered cases and 198 (73.9%) controls. The frequency of vaccine exposure in cases was 55.7% vs. 69.7% in controls (p=0.035). The VEa of the first vaccine dose was 52.6% (95%CI: 1.1-77.3). The VEa in the subgroup of HCP studied for suspected disease was 74.6% (CI95%: 38.4-89.5).

CONCLUSIONS

One dose of BNT162b2 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 offers early protection after twelve days of administration. These data could be considered to adapt strategies and consider postponing the second dose in situations of limited vaccine supply in order to achieve the maximum number of people covered with a first dose.

Effect of early measles vaccination on long-term protection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

In North America, the first dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) is administered at ≥12 months of age. However, MCV1 may be given to infants <12 months living in highly endemic areas or traveling to these areas. Although an early dose of MCV1 leads to immediate protection, it remains unclear how this impacts long-term immunity.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the impact of MCV1 given at <12 months vs. ≥12 months of age on long-term immunogenicity and vaccine effectiveness, with long-term defined as at least one-year post-vaccination. PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, Web of Science and Scopus were searched on October 31st, 2019. Studies were included if they included a cohort of infants vaccinated <12 months of age and evaluated long-term immunogenicity, vaccine efficacy, or effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 51 texts were identified: 23 reported outcomes related to vaccine effectiveness and 30 to immunogenicity. Infants vaccinated with MCV1 < 12 months of age showed an overall higher risk of measles compared to ≥12 months of age (RR = 3.16, 95% CI: 2.00, 5.01; OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.40, 4.32). Risk of measles decreased with increasing age at first vaccination, with those vaccinated with one dose ≥15 months at a lesser risk compared to 12-14 months or <12 months. Measles seroconversion and seropositivity was not affected by age at first vaccination, but antibody levels were significantly lower in the MCV1 < 12-month group (MD = -0.40, 95% CI: -0.71, -0.09).

CONCLUSION

Long-term measles seroconversion and seropositivity did not appear to be affected by age at MCV1, while vaccine effectiveness decreased with younger age. There was not enough evidence to look at the effect of age at MCV1 on immune blunting.

Evaluation of varicella vaccine effectiveness during outbreaks in schools or nurseries by cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to elucidate vaccine effectiveness (VE) during varicella outbreaks in schools and nurseries in Japan.

METHODS

An outbreak was defined as emergence of three or more cases of varicella within 21 days at the same institute. Clinical information such as varicella vaccination status, and history of varicella was collected. If a child had varicella during the outbreak, information about absences, fever, and disease severity was collected.

RESULTS

From September 2018 to January 2020, four outbreaks were reported around our institute from three elementary schools and one nursery. A total of 676 children were analyzed in this study. Seventy-six children (11.2%) were unvaccinated, 309 (45.7%) had received one dose of vaccine, and 291 (43.0%) had received two doses. Most children in Pre-K2 (1-2 years old) to Pre-K6 (5-6 years old), who were the targets of the national immunization schedule, received two doses. Meanwhile, most children older than third grade received single dose. Seventy-five children (11.1%) had varicella. Varicella prevalence from Pre-K5 to the third grade was greater than 10%. The adjusted VEs of single- and two-dose of varicella vaccine were 57.8% and 89.0%. The number of days absent was significantly longer in unvaccinated children than single-dose recipients (P = 0.0145). Unvaccinated children had significantly more severe skin eruptions than single-dose recipients (P = 0.0046) and two-dose recipients (P = 0.0258).

CONCLUSIONS

Although VEs of single-dose varicella vaccination during outbreaks was not high, the VE of two-dose vaccination was similar to that in a previously reported case-control study.

A multisite study of pertussis vaccine effectiveness by time since last vaccine dose from three Canadian provinces: A Canadian Immunization Research Network study

BACKGROUND

Pertussis remains poorly controlled relative to other diseases targeted by childhood vaccination programs. We combined estimates from four population-based studies of pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) in three Canadian provinces using a meta-analytic approach to improve precision and explore regional variation in VE and durability of protection.

METHODS

Studies were conducted in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario over periods ranging from 1996 to 2015. Adjusted log odds ratios (OR; VE = 100*[1-OR]) of the effect of vaccination on pertussis risk were estimated by time since last vaccination in each study and pooled using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models. We used the I² statistic to estimate between-study heterogeneity and assessed methodological and clinical heterogeneity through subgroup analyses of study design and age.

RESULTS

Data on 3,270 pertussis cases and 23,863 controls were available. Pertussis VE declined from 86% (95% CI 79%-90%, I² = 81.5%) at < 1 year since last vaccination to 51% (11%-74%, I² = 80.9%) by ≥ 8 years. Effect estimates were the most heterogeneous in the least and most elapsed time periods since last vaccine dose. This was attributable mostly to variation between provinces in the distribution of age groups and number of vaccine doses received within time periods, as well as study design and small numbers in the most elapsed time period.

INTERPRETATION

Consistent trends of decreasing pertussis VE with increasing time since last vaccination across three Canadian provinces indicate the need for immunization schedules and vaccine development to optimize protection for all individuals, especially for adolescents and young adults at greatest risk of infection.

Projected COVID-19 epidemic in the United States in the context of the effectiveness of a potential vaccine and implications for social distancing and face mask use

BACKGROUND

Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. Daily and cumulative COVID-19 infection and death cases from 26th January to 15th September 2020 were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center and used for model calibration.

RESULTS

Without a vaccine (scenario 1), the spread of COVID-19 could be suppressed in these states by maintaining strict social distancing measures and face mask use levels. But relaxing social distancing restrictions to the pre-pandemic level without changing the current face mask use would lead to a new COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. Under this circumstance, introducing a vaccine (scenario 2) would partially offset this negative impact even if the vaccine effectiveness and coverage are relatively low. However, if face mask use is reduced by 50% (scenario 3), a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely (scenario 4), a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current non-pharmaceutical interventions are maintained.

CONCLUSIONS

The degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation due to influenza in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review assesses the literature for estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisation in children. Studies of any design to 08 June 2020 were included if the outcome was hospitalisation, participants were 17 years old or less and influenza infection was laboratory-confirmed. A random-effects meta-analysis of 37 studies that used a test-negative design gave a pooled seasonal IVE against hospitalisation of 53.3% (47.2-58.8) for any influenza. IVE was higher against influenza A/H1N1pdm09 (68.7%, 56.9-77.2) and lowest against influenza A/H3N2 (35.8%, 23.4-46.3). Estimates by vaccine type ranged from 44.3% (30.1-55.7) for LAIV to 68.9% (53.6-79.2) for inactivated vaccines. IVE estimates were higher in seasons when the circulating influenza strains were antigenically matched to vaccine strains (59.3%, 48.3-68.0). Influenza vaccination gives moderate overall protection against influenza-associated hospitalisation in children supporting annual vaccination. IVE varies by influenza subtype and vaccine type.

Effect of statin use on the risk of influenza and influenza vaccine effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Some studies have shown that statins reduce the efficacy of influenza vaccine. The aim was to examine the impact of statins on influenza and influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE).

METHODS

This study was a post-hoc analysis of subjects in a prospective case-control study of influenza and acute myocardial infarction, where data on influenza infection, vaccination and statin use was collected. Study participants, aged ≥40 years were recruited from tertiary hospitals in Sydney from 2008 to 2010. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Of total 559 participants, 276 (49.4%) had been vaccinated and 196 (35.1%) were taking statins. The rate of laboratory confirmed influenza was significantly higher in unvaccinated statin users (adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 2.44; 95% CI: 1.06-5.62) compared to unvaccinated non-users. The VE was 98% overall, and not significantly different between statin users (92.4%) and non-statin users (100%). In adjusted analysis of all subjects, vaccination was significantly protective (AOR, 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01-0.15), and statins remained significantly associated with influenza risk (AOR, 2.47; 95% CI: 1.08-5.64).

CONCLUSION

There was no significant difference in influenza VE by statin use, and vaccine was highly effective in both statin users and non-users. There was a significantly higher risk of influenza among statin users, independent of vaccination. Statins may increase the risk of influenza through immunomodulatory mechanisms, or this may be confounded by other risk factors for influenza. It is important that people on statins should be vaccinated against influenza.

Interim estimates in null models of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness

Recently released interim numbers from advanced vaccine candidate clinical trials suggest that a COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) of >90% is achievable. However, SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics are highly heterogeneous and exhibit localized bursts of transmission, which may lead to sharp localized peaks in the number of new cases, often followed by longer periods of low incidence. Here we show that, for interim estimates of VE, these characteristic bursts in SARS-CoV-2 infection may introduce a strong positive bias in VE. Specifically, we generate null models of vaccine effectiveness, i.e., random models with bursts that over longer periods converge to zero VE but that for interim periods frequently produce apparent VE near 100%. As an example, by following the relevant clinical trial protocol, we can reproduce recently reported interim outcomes from an ongoing phase 3 clinical trial of an RNA-based vaccine candidate. Thus, to avoid potential random biases in VE, it is suggested that interim estimates on COVID-19 VE should control for the intrinsic inhomogeneity in both SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and reported cases.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in infants and toddlers with and without prior infection history: The Japan Environment and Children's Study

We calculated the Poisson-regression-adjusted relative risk (RR) of new influenza infection by vaccination, prior infection, and vaccination after prior infection in a large Japanese birth cohort, using data from ≤89,253 children aged 6 months to 3 years. The effectiveness of risk reduction (1 - RR) by vaccination at ages 1.5-3 years was 21%-31%. The RR of new infection after prior infection vs. no prior infection was 2.58-19.3 at age 1-3 years. An analysis of the 1 - RR data stratified by having at least one senior sibling and/or attending nursery school revealed that vaccination reduced the RR by 22%-40%. The 1 - RR of new infection was 21% in 3-year-old children who were vaccinated after prior infection. All these findings are statistically significant. The results consistently indicate that, regardless of having at least one senior sibling, attending nursery school, and/or being previously infected with influenza, infants and toddlers will benefit from influenza vaccination.

The burden of influenza in older adults: meeting the challenge

Influenza is an acute respiratory infection for which vaccination is our best prevention strategy. Small seasonal changes in circulating influenza viruses (antigenic drift) result in the need for annual influenza vaccination, in which the vaccine formulation is updated to better match the predominant circulating influenza viruses that have undergone important antigenic changes. Although the burden of influenza infection and its complications is the highest in older adults, vaccine effectiveness is the lowest in this vulnerable population. This is largely due to waning of the immune response with age known as "immune senescence", and presents an important, unmet challenge. Possible strategies to tackle this include adjuvant and high-dose vaccines, and herd immunity induced by greater vaccine uptake.

Rotavirus genotype trends from 2013 to 2018 and vaccine effectiveness in southern Vietnam

OBJECTIVES

Rotavirus (RV) genotypes vary geographically, and this can affect vaccine effectiveness (VE). This study investigated the genotype distribution of RV and explored VE before introducing the RV vaccine to the national immunization programme in Vietnam.

METHODS

This hospital-based surveillance study was conducted at Children's Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City in 2013-2018. Stool samples and relevant data, including vaccination history, were collected from children aged <5 years who were hospitalized with gastroenteritis. RV was detected using enzyme immunoassays and then genotyped. Children aged ≥6 months were included in the VE analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 5176 children were included in this study. RV was detected in 2421 children (46.8%). RV positivity decreased over the study period and was associated with age, seasonality, location and previous vaccination. Among 1105 RV-positive samples, G3P[8] was the most prevalent genotype (43.1%), followed by G8P[8] (19.7%), G1P[8] (12.9%) and G2P[4] (12.9%). Overall VE was 69.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.3-80.6%] in fully vaccinated children and 58.6% (95% CI 44.1-69.4%) in children who had received at least one dose of RV vaccine. VE was highest for G3P[8] (95% CI 75.1-84.5%) and lowest for G2P[4] (95% CI 32.4-57.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

RV remains a major cause of acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in southern Vietnam. The RV vaccine is effective, but its effectiveness varies with RV genotype.

Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Impact on Serotype 3: A Review of Surveillance Data

Introduction

Limited changes in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence rates after a decade of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) introduction into several national immunization programs (NIP) have raised questions about PCV13's effectiveness against this serotype.

Methods

We analyzed the impact of pediatric PCV programs on serotype 3 IPD with two approaches. First, we reviewed the publicly available surveillance data from countries identified in two recently published reviews to describe the population impact of pediatric PCV13 or PCV10 vaccination programs on serotype 3 IPD. We then compared the observed trends in PCV10 and PCV13 countries to a previously described dynamic transmission model that simulates the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD in a population over time.

Results

When serotype 3 disease rates are compared from countries that have introduced either a 10-valent (PCV10) vaccine that does not contain serotype 3 in its formulation or PCV13 in their pediatric NIP, over time, serotype 3 incidence rate trends are markedly different. Countries with a PCV10 NIP showed a substantial linear increase in serotype 3 pneumococcal disease among all age groups since the time of PCV10 introduction, whereas countries with a PCV13 NIP experienced a modest decline during the 3–4 years after vaccine introduction followed by an inflection upward in subsequent years.

Conclusion

These data suggest that PCV13 provides a certain degree of direct and indirect protection against serotype 3 at the population level and direct adult vaccination with a serotype 3-containing vaccine is likely to provide substantial benefit in the context of a pediatric PCV NIP. Further research around serotype 3 transmission patterns and epidemiology is nonetheless warranted.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-021-00406-w.

Variable seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from test-negative design studies after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND

We examined the influence of some factors on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched for full-text publications of VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza from TND studies in outpatient settings after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data from the included studies. We calculated pooled adjusted VE across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, using an inverse variance, random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 76 full-text articles from 11,931 citations. VE estimates against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were homogenous and point pooled VE higher in the Southern hemisphere compared with the Northern hemisphere. The difference in pooled VE between the Southern and Northern hemispheres was statistically significant for A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza. A consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across both hemispheres and continents, with the highest point pooled VE being against A(H1N1)pdm09, followed by influenza B, and lowest against A(H3N2). A nearly consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across age groups in the Northern hemisphere, with pooled VE mostly decreasing with age. Point pooled VE against A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were statistically significantly higher when vaccine was antigenically similar to circulating virus strains compared with when antigenically dissimilar. Similar pattern was observed in the Northern hemisphere, but there was a lack of data from the Southern hemisphere.

CONCLUSION

Consistent patterns appear to exist in seasonal influenza VE across regions, age groups, and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, with best vaccine performance against A(H1N1)pdm09 and worst against A(H3N2). The evidence highlights the need to consider geographical location, age, and vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains when designing and evaluating influenza VE studies.

Comparison of local influenza vaccine effectiveness using two methods

Background

In some settings, research methods to determine influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may not be appropriate because of cost, time constraints, or other factors. Administrative database analysis of viral testing results and vaccination history may be a viable alternative. This study compared VE estimates from outpatient research and administrative databases.

Methods

Using the test-negative, case-control design, data for 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 influenza seasons were collected using: 1) consent, specimen collection, RT-PCR testing and vaccine verification using multiple methods; and 2) an administrative database of outpatients with a clinical respiratory viral panel combined with electronic immunization records. Odds ratios for likelihood of influenza infection by vaccination status were calculated using multivariable logistic regression. VE = (1 − aOR) × 100.

Results

Research participants were significantly younger (P < 0.001), more often white (69% vs. 59%; P < 0.001) than non-white and less frequently enrolled through the emergency department (35% vs. 72%; P < 0.001) than administrative database participants. VE was significant against all influenza and influenza A in each season and both seasons combined (37–49%). Point estimate differences between methods were evident, with higher VE in the research database, but insignificant due to low sample sizes. When enrollment sites were separately analyzed, there were significant differences in VE estimates for all influenza (66% research vs. 46% administrative P < 0.001) and influenza A (67% research vs. 49% administrative; P < 0.001) in the emergency department.

Conclusions:

The selection of the appropriate method for determining influenza vaccine effectiveness depends on many factors, including sample size, subgroups of interest, etc., suggesting that research estimates may be more generalizable. Other advantages of research databases for VE estimates include lack of clinician-related selection bias for testing and less misclassification of vaccination status. The advantages of the administrative databases are potentially shorter time to VE results and lower cost.

In silico prediction of influenza vaccine effectiveness by sequence analysis

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines varies with the matching of vaccine strains to circulating strains. Based on the genetic distance of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene of the influenza viruses to vaccine strains, we statistically quantified the relationship between the genetic mismatch and vaccine effectiveness (VE) for influenza A/H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2 and B. We also proposed a systematic approach to integrate multiple genes and influenza types for overall VE estimation. Evident linear relationships were identified and validated in independent data. The modelling framework may enable in silico prediction for VE on a real-time basis and inform the influenza vaccine selection strategy.

Mitigation of biases in estimating hazard ratios under non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes-applications to influenza vaccine effectiveness

Background

Non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes in time-to-event data affects event counts as well as the risk sets, thus, biasing the estimation of hazard ratios. We investigate how imperfect observation of incident events affects the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on hazard ratios.

Methods

Imperfect time-to-event data contain two classes of events: a portion of the true events of interest; and false-positive events mistakenly recorded as events of interest. We develop an estimation method utilising a weighted partial likelihood and probabilistic deletion of false-positive events and assuming the sensitivity and the false-positive rate are known. The performance of the method is evaluated using simulated and Finnish register data.

Results

The novel method enables unbiased semiparametric estimation of hazard ratios from imperfect time-to-event data. False-positive rates that are small can be approximated to be zero without inducing bias. The method is robust to misspecification of the sensitivity as long as the ratio of the sensitivity in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated is specified correctly and the cumulative risk of the true event is small.

Conclusions

The weighted partial likelihood can be used to adjust for outcome measurement errors in the estimation of hazard ratios and effectiveness but requires specifying the sensitivity and the false-positive rate. In absence of exact information about these parameters, the method works as a tool for assessing the potential magnitude of bias given a range of likely parameter values.

Application of the screening and indirect cohort methods to evaluate the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination program in adults 75 years and older in Taiwan

Background

The Taiwanese national 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) program in adults ≥75 years of age and the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) program for children were implemented in 2008 and 2013, respectively. In this study we evaluated PPV23 vaccine effectiveness (PPV23VE) in the elderly, with regard to both direct protection from the vaccine itself and the indirect protection conferred by PCV13 immunization in children.

Methods

The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Taiwan from July 2008 to June 2016 was collected from IPD surveillance data. A comparison of IPD incidence with a nationwide vaccination registry allowed an estimation of PPV23VE by the screening and indirect cohort methods.

Results

The incidence of IPD in adults ≥75 years of age ranged from 13.9 per 100,000 inhabitants during the period July 2008–June 2013 to 10.4 per 100,000 inhabitants between July 2013 and June 2016 (relative risk [RR]: 0.75; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.67–0.85). According to the screening method, PPV23VE against death within 30 days of IPD onset, all IPD, and PPV23-serotype IPD was 32.5% (95% CI: 17.5–44.7%), 33.9% (95% CI: 25.2–41.5%) and 43.4% (95% CI: 34.4–51.2%), respectively. PPV23VE with the indirect cohort method was 39.0% (95% CI: 15.5–55.9%) for all PPV23 serotypes and 71.5% (95% CI: 44.2–85.4%) for 11 serotypes included in PPV23 but not in PCV13. During the period July 2008–June 2012, PPV23VE against PPV23-serotype IPD was 55.1% (95% CI: 27.2–72.3%).

Conclusions

PPV23 is able to prevent IPD and 30-day fatality in adults 75 years of age and older due to a combination of direct effects from PPV23 and indirect effects from PCV13. It might confer higher protection against PPV23-serotype IPD before the introduction of PCV13 program in children.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05721-0.

Preventive effects of influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in the elderly - results from a population-based retrospective cohort study

Influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations are recommended in the elderly to reduce life-threatening complications like sepsis. Protection may be reduced with increasing age. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of both vaccines in the elderly by performing a retrospective cohort study of 138,877 individuals aged ≥60 y in Germany, who were insured in a large statutory health insurance (AOK PLUS). We used longitudinal claims data to classify individuals according to vaccination status 2008–2014, and assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) in 2015 and 2016. Inverse probability weighting based on generalized propensity scores was used to adjust for systematic between-group differences. Influenza vaccination was associated with a reduction of hospital treatment in laboratory-confirmed influenza in 2015 (VE = 41.32 [95%CI 0.85, 65.26]), but had no significant impact on the overall influenza incidence. Complications of influenza (pneumonia and sepsis) were reduced in 2016. We found a rise in influenza-like illness and acute respiratory infections in both years and an increased 90-d mortality after hospital-treated pneumonia in vaccinees in 2015. Pneumococcal vaccination was effective in preventing hospital-treated pneumonia within the first and second year after vaccination (VE = 52.45 [13.31, 73.92] and 46.04 [5.46, 69.21], respectively), but had no impact on sepsis incidence or pneumonia mortality. Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination can prevent severe complications from influenza and hospital-treated pneumonia in the elderly, respectively. Vaccine effects differ between years and seasons and are partly difficult to interpret. Despite extensive efforts to adjust for between-group differences, residual bias cannot be ruled out, possibly explaining signals like increased ILI or pneumonia mortality.

Effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination in the first year of a funded childhood program in Queensland, Australia, 2018

BACKGROUND

Following high influenza activity in 2017, the state of Queensland, Australia, funded a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccination program for children aged 6 months to <5 years in 2018. We calculated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) among children eligible for this program.

METHODS

A matched case-control study was conducted. Cases were identified using Queensland 2018 influenza notification data among children age-eligible for funded vaccination. Controls were drawn from Australian Immunisation Register records of Queensland resident children age-eligible for funded influenza vaccine. Up to 10 controls per case were matched for location and birthdate. First dose vaccination was valid if received ≥14 days prior to specimen collection; a second dose was valid if received ≥28 days after first dose receipt. VE was calculated for vaccine doses and adherence to national recommendations for two doses in the first season (schedule completeness) and adjusted (VE_adj) for sex and First Nations status.

RESULTS

There were 1,125 cases and 10,645 matched controls analysed. Overall VE_adj against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 51% (95% confidence interval (CI) 41-60). VE_adj was 60% (95% CI 46-70) for children who received two doses in 2018, and 60% (95% CI 48-69) for children vaccinated appropriately according to schedule completeness. VE increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate vaccine effectiveness was observed for children eligible for the funded program in Queensland in 2018, adding to the sparse evidence for influenza vaccine use in Australian children. Adhering to the national first season two dose schedule for influenza vaccine receipt in children ensures maximum protection.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza in a vaccine-mismatched influenza B-dominant season

BACKGROUND

The 2017-2018 influenza season in Israel was characterized by the predominance of influenza B Yamagata, with a lesser circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza A(H3N2). We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the inactivated influenza vaccine which was selected for use that season.

METHODS

End-of-season VE and 95% confidence intervals (CI) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) were estimated by means of the test-negative design. Age-specific VE analysis was carried out using a moving age interval.

RESULTS

Specimen were obtained from 1,453 community ILI patients; 610 (42.0%) were influenza-positive, among which 69.7% were B, 17.2% A(H1N1)pdm09 and 13.4% A(H3N2). A 98.6% of molecularly characterized influenza B belonged to the Yamagata lineage. Of the sampled individuals, 1320 were suitable for VE analysis. Of those vaccinated, 90.6% received the inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) containing a Victoria lineage influenza B-like virus. VE against influenza A differed by age, with the highest VE of 72.9% (95%CI 31.9-89.2%) observed in children 0.5-14 years old, while all ages VE was 46.6% (95%CI 10.4-68.2%). All ages VE against influenza B was 23.2% (95%CI -10.1-46.4%) with age-specific analysis showing non-significant VE estimates. Utilizing a moving age interval of 15 years, afforded a detailed age-specific insight into influenza VE against the influenza viruses circulating during the 2017-2018 season.

CONCLUSIONS

The moderate-high 2017-2018 influenza A VE among children and adolescents, supports seasonal influenza vaccination at a young age. The low VE against influenza B in Israel, is most likely the result of influenza B/TIV-mismatch.

Effectiveness of HPV vaccination against the development of high-grade cervical lesions in young Japanese women

BACKGROUND

Although more than 10 years have passed since HPV vaccination was implemented, first as an interim programme (Emergent vaccine promotion programme) in November 2010, followed by incorporating into the National Immunization Programme in April, 2013 and suspended in June 2013, limited studies have investigated the HPV vaccine effectiveness against high-grade cervical lesions in Japan.

METHODS

We collected the matched data of the results of cervical biopsy and history of vaccination from the Japan Cancer Society database. The subjects were women aged 20 to 29 years screened for cervical cancer between April, 2015 and March, 2017, and with information on HPV vaccination status. We estimated the relative risk of developing high-grade cervical lesions in vaccinated subjects using Poisson regression as compared to unvaccinated subjects.

RESULTS

Among the 34,281 women screened, 3770 (11.0%) were vaccinated. The prevalence of CIN2+ was statistically significantly lower in the vaccinated women as compared to the unvaccinated women (Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) =76%; RR = 0.24, 95% CI:0.10-0.60). High VE against CIN3+ was also observed (91%; RR = 0.09, 95% CI:0.00-0.42).

CONCLUSION

Women aged 20-29 years who received at least one dose of HPV vaccine had a significantly lower risk of high-grade cervical lesions than those not vaccinated. In Japan, HPV vaccination should be resumed in order to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer.

Bivalent AS04-adjuvanted HPV vaccine provides optimal cancer prevention for HPV types not included in the vaccine

All available HPV vaccines contain oncogenic types 16 and 18, most often found in HPV-related cancers and precursor lesions, but they differ in their valence and adjuvant potency. The quadri- and nonavalent HPV vaccines both contain additional types 6 and 11, related to anogenital warts, while the nonavalent vaccine contains another five types that are less frequently found in cancers. The bivalent vaccine is adjuvanted by AS04. Phase-III randomised controlled trials and population-based studies on bi- and quadrivalent vaccines suggest that the two vaccines when administered to HPV-naive persons, are optimally effective in preventing cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia grade 3 or greater, caused by types 16 or 18 (specific protection). In addition, the bivalent vaccine, but not the quadrivalent vaccine, cross-protects against HPV types not contained in the vaccine. The advantage of the quadrivalent vaccine to provide additional protection against anogenital warts, should not be traded for a lower overall efficacy in preventing pre-cancerous lesions and eventually cancer.

Neuraminidase characterisation reveals very low levels of antiviral resistance and the presence of mutations associated with reduced antibody effectiveness in the Irish influenza 2018/2019 season

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Very low antiviral resistance in Irish 2018/2019 influenza season.

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Supports current antiviral use.

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Continued molecular neuraminidase surveillance essential for resistance emergence.

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Surveillance also useful for monitoring vaccine effectiveness.

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Mutations associated with reduced antibody effectiveness detected.

Neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) resistance levels globally are currently low. However, as antivirals are increasingly being used, and even in the absence of selective pressure, resistance may increase or emerge. The neuraminidase (NA) genes from influenza viruses from the Irish 2018/2019 season were sequenced: 1/144 (0.7 %) A(H1N1)pdm09 sequences harboured a substitution associated with highly-reduced susceptibility to NAIs. The very low NAI resistance we describe supports current Irish NAI use recommendations. However, continued monitoring is essential. NA characterisation also identified substitutions associated with reduced antibody effectiveness, thereby highlighting the potential of NA sequence surveillance as an additional tool for investigating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE).

The effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia in children in Lao People's Democratic Republic: An observational hospital-based test-negative study

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been shown to reduce hypoxic pneumonia in children. However, there are no studies from Asia examining the effectiveness of PCVs on hypoxic pneumonia. We describe a novel approach to determine the effectiveness of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against hypoxia in children admitted with pneumonia in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

METHODS

A prospective hospital-based, test-negative observational study of children aged up to 59 months admitted with pneumonia to a single tertiary hospital in Vientiane was undertaken over 54 months. Pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. Hypoxia was defined as oxygen saturation <90% in room air or requiring oxygen supplementation during hospitalisation. Test-negative cases and controls were children with hypoxic and non-hypoxic pneumonia, respectively. PCV13 status was determined by written record. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using logistic regression. Propensity score and multiple imputation analyses were used to handle confounding and missing data.

FINDINGS

There were 826 children admitted with pneumonia, 285 had hypoxic pneumonia and 377 were PCV13-vaccinated. The unadjusted, propensity-score adjusted and multiple-imputation adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness against hypoxic pneumonia were 23% (95% confidence interval: -9, 46%; p=0•14); 37% (6, 57%; p=0•02) and 35% (7, 55%; p=0•02) respectively.

INTERPRETATION

PCV13 is effective against hypoxic pneumonia in Asia, and should be prioritised for inclusion in national immunisation programs. This single hospital-based, test-negative approach can be used to assess vaccine effectiveness in other similar settings.

FUNDING

Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.