101
|
Mak CM, Mok NS, Shum HC, Siu WK, Chong YK, Lee HHC, Fong NC, Tong SF, Lee KW, Ching CK, Chen SPL, Cheung WL, Tso CB, Poon WM, Lau CL, Lo YK, Tsui PT, Shum SF, Lee KC. Sudden arrhythmia death syndrome in young victims: a five-year retrospective review and two-year prospective molecular autopsy study by next-generation sequencing and clinical evaluation of their first-degree relatives. Hong Kong Med J 2019; 25:21-9. [PMID: 30670673 DOI: 10.12809/hkmj187256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Sudden arrhythmia death syndrome (SADS) accounts for about 30% of causes of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young people. In Hong Kong, there are scarce data on SADS and a lack of experience in molecular autopsy. We aimed to investigate the value of molecular autopsy techniques for detecting SADS in an East Asian population. METHODS This was a two-part study. First, we conducted a retrospective 5-year review of autopsies performed in public mortuaries on young SCD victims. Second, we conducted a prospective 2-year study combining conventional autopsy investigations, molecular autopsy, and cardiac evaluation of the first-degree relatives of SCD victims. A panel of 35 genes implicated in SADS was analysed by next-generation sequencing. RESULTS There were 289 SCD victims included in the 5-year review. Coronary artery disease was the major cause of death (35%); 40% were structural heart diseases and 25% were unexplained. These unexplained cases could include SADS-related conditions. In the 2-year prospective study, 21 SCD victims were examined: 10% had arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, 5% had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and 85% had negative autopsy. Genetic analysis showed 29% with positive heterozygous genetic variants; six variants were novel. One third of victims had history of syncope, and 14% had family history of SCD. More than half of the 11 first-degree relatives who underwent genetic testing carried related genetic variants, and 10% had SADS-related clinical features. CONCLUSION This pilot feasibility study shows the value of incorporating cardiac evaluation of surviving relatives and next-generation sequencing molecular autopsy into conventional forensic investigations in diagnosing young SCD victims in East Asian populations. The interpretation of genetic variants in the context of SCD is complicated and we recommend its analysis and reporting by qualified pathologists.
Collapse
|
102
|
Owada K, Nielsen M, Lau CL, Yakob L, Clements ACA, Leonardo L, Soares Magalhães RJ. Determinants of Spatial Heterogeneity of Functional Illiteracy among School-Aged Children in the Philippines: An Ecological Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16010137. [PMID: 30621052 PMCID: PMC6339103 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16010137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2018] [Revised: 12/23/2018] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Functional literacy is one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations. Functional literacy indicators are likely to vary between locations given the geographical variability of its major determinants. This property poses a challenge to decisions around efficient allocation of population services and resources to mitigate the impact of functional literacy in populations most in need. Using functional literacy indicators of 11,313 school-aged children collected in 2008 during the nationwide survey, the current study examined the association between functional literacy and geographical disparities in socioeconomic status (SES), water supply, sanitation and hygiene, household education stimuli, and environmental variables in all three regions of the Philippines (Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao). Three nested fixed-effects multinomial regression models were built to determine associations between functional literacy and a wide array of variables. Our results showed the general prevalence rate of functional illiteracy as being 4.7%, with the highest prevalence rate in the Visayas, followed by Mindanao and Luzon (7.5%, 6.9%, and 3.0%, respectively. Our results indicated that in Luzon prevalence of functional illiteracy was explained by variation in household education stimuli scores, sources of drinking water, and type of toilet facility. In Mindanao and the Visayas prevalence of functional illiteracy was primarily explained by geographical variation in SES, and natural environmental conditions. Our study highlights region-specific determinants of functional literacy and the need for geographically targeted, integrated interventions.
Collapse
|
103
|
de Alwis R, Watson C, Nikolay B, Lowry JH, Thieu NTV, Van TT, Ngoc DTT, Rawalai K, Taufa M, Coriakula J, Lau CL, Nilles EJ, Edmunds WJ, Kama M, Baker S, Cano J. Role of Environmental Factors in Shaping Spatial Distribution of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhi, Fiji. Emerg Infect Dis 2019; 24:284-293. [PMID: 29350150 PMCID: PMC5782885 DOI: 10.3201/eid2402.170704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Fiji recently experienced a sharp increase in reported typhoid fever cases. To investigate geographic distribution and environmental risk factors associated with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi infection, we conducted a cross-sectional cluster survey with associated serologic testing for Vi capsular antigen–specific antibodies (a marker for exposure to Salmonella Typhi in Fiji in 2013. Hotspots with high seroprevalence of Vi-specific antibodies were identified in northeastern mainland Fiji. Risk for Vi seropositivity increased with increased annual rainfall (odds ratio [OR] 1.26/quintile increase, 95% CI 1.12–1.42), and decreased with increased distance from major rivers and creeks (OR 0.89/km increase, 95% CI 0.80–0.99) and distance to modeled flood-risk areas (OR 0.80/quintile increase, 95% CI 0.69–0.92) after being adjusted for age, typhoid fever vaccination, and home toilet type. Risk for exposure to Salmonella Typhi and its spatial distribution in Fiji are driven by environmental factors. Our findings can directly affect typhoid fever control efforts in Fiji.
Collapse
|
104
|
Xu Z, Graves PM, Lau CL, Clements A, Geard N, Glass K. GEOFIL: A spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework for predicting the long-term transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa. Epidemics 2018; 27:19-27. [PMID: 30611745 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 12/22/2018] [Accepted: 12/28/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework GEOFIL was developed to predict lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission dynamics in American Samoa. GEOFIL included individual-level information on age, gender, disease status, household location, household members, workplace/school location and colleagues/schoolmates at each time step during the simulation. In American Samoa, annual mass drug administration from 2000 to 2006 successfully reduced LF prevalence dramatically. However, GEOFIL predicted continual increase in microfilaraemia prevalence in the absence of further intervention. Evidence from seroprevalence and transmission assessment surveys conducted from 2010 to 2016 indicated a resurgence of LF in American Samoa, corroborating GEOFIL's predictions. The microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence in 6-7-yo children were much lower than in the overall population. Mosquito biting rates were found to be a critical determinant of infection risk. Transmission hotspots are likely to disappear with lower biting rates. GEOFIL highlights current knowledge gaps, such as data on mosquito abundance, biting rates and within-host parasite dynamics, which are important for improving the accuracy of model predictions.
Collapse
|
105
|
Dhewantara PW, Lau CL, Allan KJ, Hu W, Zhang W, Mamun AA, Soares Magalhães RJ. Spatial epidemiological approaches to inform leptospirosis surveillance and control: A systematic review and critical appraisal of methods. Zoonoses Public Health 2018; 66:185-206. [PMID: 30593736 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2018] [Accepted: 11/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease that the transmission is driven by complex geographical and temporal variation in demographics, animal hosts and socioecological factors. This results in complex challenges for the identification of high-risk areas. Spatial and temporal epidemiological tools could be used to support leptospirosis control programs, but the adequacy of its application has not been evaluated. We searched literature in six databases including PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Scopus, SciELO and Zoological Record to systematically review and critically assess the use of spatial and temporal analytical tools for leptospirosis and to provide general framework for its application in future studies. We reviewed 115 articles published between 1930 and October 2018 from 41 different countries. Of these, 65 (56.52%) articles were on human leptospirosis, 39 (33.91%) on animal leptospirosis and 11 (9.5%) used data from both human and animal leptospirosis. Spatial analytical (n = 106) tools were used to describe the distribution of incidence/prevalence at various geographical scales (96.5%) and to explored spatial patterns to detect clustering and hot spots (33%). A total of 51 studies modelled the relationships of various variables on the risk of human (n = 31), animal (n = 17) and both human and animal infection (n = 3). Among those modelling studies, few studies had generated spatially structured models and predictive maps of human (n = 2/31) and animal leptospirosis (n = 1/17). In addition, nine studies applied time-series analytical tools to predict leptospirosis incidence. Spatial and temporal analytical tools have been greatly utilized to improve our understanding on leptospirosis epidemiology. Yet the quality of the epidemiological data, the selection of covariates and spatial analytical techniques should be carefully considered in future studies to improve usefulness of evidence as tools to support leptospirosis control. A general framework for the application of spatial analytical tools for leptospirosis was proposed.
Collapse
|
106
|
Mayfield HJ, Smith CS, Lowry JH, Watson CH, Baker MG, Kama M, Nilles EJ, Lau CL. Predictive risk mapping of an environmentally-driven infectious disease using spatial Bayesian networks: A case study of leptospirosis in Fiji. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006857. [PMID: 30307936 PMCID: PMC6198991 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2018] [Revised: 10/23/2018] [Accepted: 09/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease responsible for over 1 million severe cases and 60,000 deaths annually. The wide range of animal hosts and complex environmental drivers of transmission make targeted interventions challenging, particularly when restricted to regression-based analyses which have limited ability to deal with complexity. In Fiji, important environmental and socio-demographic factors include living in rural areas, poverty, and livestock exposure. This study aims to examine drivers of transmission under different scenarios of environmental and livestock exposures. Methods Spatial Bayesian networks (SBN) were used to analyse the influence of livestock and poverty on the risk of leptospirosis infection in urban compared to rural areas. The SBN models used a combination of spatially-explicit field data from previous work and publically available census information. Predictive risk maps were produced for overall risk, and for scenarios related to poverty, livestock, and urban/rural setting. Results While high, rather than low, commercial dairy farm density similarly increased the risk of infection in both urban (12% to 18%) and rural areas (70% to 79%), the presence of pigs in a village had different impact in rural (43% to 84%) compared with urban areas (4% to 24%). Areas with high poverty rates were predicted to have 26.6% and 18.0% higher probability of above average seroprevalence in rural and urban areas, respectively. In urban areas, this represents >300% difference between areas of low and high poverty, compared to 43% difference in rural areas. Conclusions Our study demonstrates the use of SBN to provide valuable insights into the drivers of leptospirosis transmission under complex scenarios. By estimating the risk of leptospirosis infection under different scenarios, such as urban versus rural areas, these subgroups or areas can be targeted with more precise interventions that focus on the most relevant key drivers of infection. Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease responsible for over 60,000 deaths annually and is transmitted from mammal hosts to humans through contact with infected urine. The range of possible hosts and complex environmental factors related to transmission make targeted interventions challenging. We used spatial Bayesian Networks applied to a case study in Fiji to show that livestock exposure and poverty affect the probability of infection differently in rural compared to urban areas. This work illustrates the complexity of leptospirosis transmission drivers in Fiji, and shows how they are affected by the interactions between livestock exposure and other environmental and socio-demographic factors. In doing so, we support previous findings linking the risk of leptospirosis to poverty.
Collapse
|
107
|
Owada K, Lau CL, Leonardo L, Clements ACA, Yakob L, Nielsen M, Carabin H, Soares Magalhães RJ. Spatial distribution and populations at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes: an ecological study. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:535. [PMID: 30285906 PMCID: PMC6171148 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-3107-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2018] [Accepted: 09/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are highly prevalent in the Philippines. Mapping the prevalence and high-intensity of STH co-infections can help guide targeted intervention programmes to reduce morbidity, especially among vulnerable school-aged children. In this study, we aimed to predict the spatial distribution of the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura co-infection and infection intensity classes in the Philippines to identify populations most in need of interventions. METHODS Data on STH infections from 29,919 individuals during the nationwide parasitological survey in 2005 to 2007 were included in the analysis. To geographically predict the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes, Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built including age, sex, environmental variables and a geostatistical random effect. The number of individuals co-infected and belonging to each of the infection intensity classes in 2017 was forecast by combining our predictive prevalence maps with population density maps. RESULTS Our models showed that school-aged children (5-19 years) are most at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and of moderate/high infection intensity compared to other age groups. We identified target provinces where the likelihood of STH-associated morbidity was highest: Luzon (Bulacan, Benguet, Cavite, Sorsogon, Metropolitan Manila, Pampanga and Rizal), the Visayas (Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental), and in Mindanao (Agusan Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Oriental, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Oriental, Sulu and Zamboanga Del Sur). Luzon had the highest estimated number of school-aged children with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections (estimated total 89,400), followed by the Visayas (38,300) and Mindanao (20,200). CONCLUSIONS Our study provided epidemiological evidence to highlight national priority areas for controlling co-infections and high intensity infections in the Philippines. Our maps could assist more geographically targeted interventions to reduce the risk of STH-associated morbidity in the Philippines.
Collapse
|
108
|
Lau CL, Ramsey L, Mills LC, Furuya-Kanamori L, Mills DJ. Drug-free Holidays: Compliance, Tolerability, and Acceptability of a 3-Day Atovaquone/Proguanil Schedule for Pretravel Malaria Chemoprophylaxis in Australian Travelers. Clin Infect Dis 2018; 69:137-143. [DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2018] [Accepted: 09/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
|
109
|
Sheel M, Sheridan S, Gass K, Won K, Fuimaono S, Kirk M, Gonzales A, Hedtke SM, Graves PM, Lau CL. Identifying residual transmission of lymphatic filariasis after mass drug administration: Comparing school-based versus community-based surveillance - American Samoa, 2016. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006583. [PMID: 30011276 PMCID: PMC6062125 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2018] [Revised: 07/26/2018] [Accepted: 06/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) from 2000-2006. The World Health Organization recommends systematic post-MDA surveillance using Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) for epidemiological assessment of recent LF transmission. We compared the effectiveness of two survey designs for post-MDA surveillance: a school-based survey of children aged 6-7 years, and a community-based survey targeting people aged ≥8 years. METHODS In 2016, we conducted a systematic school-based TAS in all elementary schools (N = 29) and a cluster survey in 28 villages on the two main islands of American Samoa. We collected information on demographics and risk factors for infection using electronic questionnaires, and recorded geo-locations of schools and households. Blood samples were collected to test for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using the Alere Filariasis Test Strip. For those who tested positive, we prepared slides for microscopic examination of microfilaria and provided treatment. Descriptive statistics were performed for questionnaire variables. Data were weighted and adjusted to account for sampling design and sex for both surveys, and for age in the community survey. RESULTS The school-based TAS (n = 1143) identified nine antigen-positive children and found an overall adjusted CFA prevalence of 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3-1.8). Of the nine positive children, we identified one microfilariaemic 7-year-old child. The community-based survey (n = 2507, 711 households) identified 102 antigen-positive people, and estimated an overall adjusted CFA prevalence of 6.2% (95% CI: 4.5-8.6). Adjusted village-level prevalence ranged from 0-47.1%. CFA prevalence increased with age and was higher in males. Of 86 antigen-positive community members from whom slides were prepared, 22 (25.6%) were microfilaraemic. School-based TAS had limited sensitivity (range 0-23.8%) and negative predictive value (range 25-83.3%) but had high specificity (range 83.3-100%) and positive predictive value (range 0-100%) for identifying villages with ongoing transmission. CONCLUSIONS American Samoa failed the school-based TAS in 2016, and the community-based survey identified higher than expected numbers of antigen-positive people. School-based TAS was logistically simpler and enabled sampling of a larger proportion of the target population, but the results did not provide a good indication of the overall CFA prevalence in older age groups and was not sensitive at identifying foci of ongoing transmission. The community-based survey, although operationally more challenging, identified antigen-positive individuals of all ages, and foci of high antigen prevalence. Both surveys confirmed recrudescence of LF transmission.
Collapse
|
110
|
Guernier V, Goarant C, Benschop J, Lau CL. A systematic review of human and animal leptospirosis in the Pacific Islands reveals pathogen and reservoir diversity. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006503. [PMID: 29758037 PMCID: PMC5967813 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2018] [Revised: 05/24/2018] [Accepted: 05/07/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Pacific Islands have environmental conditions highly favourable for transmission of leptospirosis, a neglected zoonosis with highest incidence in the tropics, and Oceania in particular. Recent reports confirm the emergence and outbreaks of leptospirosis in the Pacific Islands, but the epidemiology and drivers of transmission of human and animal leptospirosis are poorly documented, especially in the more isolated and less developed islands. Methodology/Principal findings We conducted a systematic review of human and animal leptospirosis within 25 Pacific Islands (PIs) in Polynesia, Melanesia, Micronesia, as well as Easter Island and Hawaii. We performed a literature search using four international databases for articles published between January 1947 and June 2017. We further included grey literature available on the internet. We identified 148 studies describing leptospirosis epidemiology, but the number of studies varied significantly between PIs. No data were available from four PIs. Human leptospirosis has been reported from 13 PIs, with 63% of all studies conducted in Hawaii, French Polynesia and New Caledonia. Animal leptospirosis has been investigated in 19 PIs and from 14 host species, mainly pigs (18% of studies), cattle (16%) and dogs (11%). Only 13 studies provided information on both human and animal leptospirosis from the same location. Serology results were highly diverse in the region, both in humans and animals. Conclusions/Significance Our study suggests that, as in other tropical regions, leptospirosis is widespread in the PIs while showing some epidemiological heterogeneity. Data are scarce or absent from many PIs. Rodents, cattle, pigs and dogs are all likely to be important carriers, but the relative importance of each animal species in human infection needs to be clarified. Epidemiological surveys with appropriate sampling design, pathogen typing and data analysis are needed to improve our understanding of transmission patterns and to develop effective intervention strategies. Leptospirosis is an important bacterial zoonosis that affects people and animals worldwide. It is common in tropical areas, especially in island ecosystems. Because islands are relatively small, isolated, and have limited health and diagnostic facilities, the disease burden is often underestimated. In this systematic review, we aimed to describe the extent of leptospirosis in the Pacific Islands, including the diversity of pathogens and animal reservoirs. We identified 148 studies from 21 Pacific islands that described Leptospira infection in humans or animals. In hospitalized febrile patients, leptospirosis was a common cause of the acute febrile illness, but accurate diagnosis was challenging and often delayed because symptoms overlapped with many other infectious diseases, and access to laboratory diagnosis was limited. A wide variety of animal hosts of Leptospira were identified, with rodents, cattle, pigs and dogs reported as important hosts; however, their relative importance in human infection remains unclear. Our review demonstrates that the epidemiology of leptospirosis varies across the Pacific Islands, but information about risk factors and transmission routes is currently limited. We recommend more integrated studies, using an eco-epidemiological approach that includes human, veterinary and environmental factors, and interactions between factors at different ecological scales.
Collapse
|
111
|
Mayfield HJ, Lowry JH, Watson CH, Kama M, Nilles EJ, Lau CL. Use of geographically weighted logistic regression to quantify spatial variation in the environmental and sociodemographic drivers of leptospirosis in Fiji: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2018; 2:e223-e232. [PMID: 29709286 PMCID: PMC5924768 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(18)30066-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2017] [Revised: 04/03/2018] [Accepted: 04/16/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Leptospirosis is a globally important zoonotic disease, with complex exposure pathways that depend on interactions between human beings, animals, and the environment. Major drivers of outbreaks include flooding, urbanisation, poverty, and agricultural intensification. The intensity of these drivers and their relative importance vary between geographical areas; however, non-spatial regression methods are incapable of capturing the spatial variations. This study aimed to explore the use of geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) to provide insights into the ecoepidemiology of human leptospirosis in Fiji. METHODS We obtained field data from a cross-sectional community survey done in 2013 in the three main islands of Fiji. A blood sample obtained from each participant (aged 1-90 years) was tested for anti-Leptospira antibodies and household locations were recorded using GPS receivers. We used GWLR to quantify the spatial variation in the relative importance of five environmental and sociodemographic covariates (cattle density, distance to river, poverty rate, residential setting [urban or rural], and maximum rainfall in the wettest month) on leptospirosis transmission in Fiji. We developed two models, one using GWLR and one with standard logistic regression; for each model, the dependent variable was the presence or absence of anti-Leptospira antibodies. GWLR results were compared with results obtained with standard logistic regression, and used to produce a predictive risk map and maps showing the spatial variation in odds ratios (OR) for each covariate. FINDINGS The dataset contained location information for 2046 participants from 1922 households representing 81 communities. The Aikaike information criterion value of the GWLR model was 1935·2 compared with 1254·2 for the standard logistic regression model, indicating that the GWLR model was more efficient. Both models produced similar OR for the covariates, but GWLR also detected spatial variation in the effect of each covariate. Maximum rainfall had the least variation across space (median OR 1·30, IQR 1·27-1·35), and distance to river varied the most (1·45, 1·35-2·05). The predictive risk map indicated that the highest risk was in the interior of Viti Levu, and the agricultural region and southern end of Vanua Levu. INTERPRETATION GWLR provided a valuable method for modelling spatial heterogeneity of covariates for leptospirosis infection and their relative importance over space. Results of GWLR could be used to inform more place-specific interventions, particularly for diseases with strong environmental or sociodemographic drivers of transmission. FUNDING WHO, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council, University of Queensland, UK Medical Research Council, Chadwick Trust.
Collapse
|
112
|
Flies EJ, Lau CL, Carver S, Weinstein P. Another Emerging Mosquito-Borne Disease? Endemic Ross River Virus Transmission in the Absence of Marsupial Reservoirs. Bioscience 2018. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biy011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
|
113
|
Kucharski AJ, Kama M, Watson CH, Aubry M, Funk S, Henderson AD, Brady OJ, Vanhomwegen J, Manuguerra JC, Lau CL, Edmunds WJ, Aaskov J, Nilles EJ, Cao-Lormeau VM, Hué S, Hibberd ML. Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji. eLife 2018; 7:34848. [PMID: 30103854 PMCID: PMC6092126 DOI: 10.7554/elife.34848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2018] [Accepted: 07/01/2018] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.
Collapse
|
114
|
Lau CL, Fung HT, Kam CW. X-ray Quiz: a Young Child with Shortness of Breath. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790401100410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
|
115
|
Kam CW, Lau CL, Tsui KL. Treatment and Outcome of Acute Cardiogenic Pulmonary Oedema Presenting to an Emergency Department in Hong Kong: Retrospective Cohort Study. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790701400112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
|
116
|
Abstract
Purple discolouration of urine is not commonly encountered in accident and emergency departments. We report a case of an elderly gentleman on long-term urinary catheter who presented with purple discolouration of urine. He was found to have urinary tract infection caused by the bacteria Proteus mirabilis. The urine became clear after urinary catheter change and antibiotic treatment. This is called the purple urine bag syndrome and emergency physicians should be aware of this uncommon condition and the associated potentially dangerous conditions in order to initiate appropriate management.
Collapse
|
117
|
Lau CL, Chung KL, Kam CW. Accidental Organophosphate Insecticide Poisoning: a Fatal Child case with Hazards to Emergency Department Staff. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790301000407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
A 2-year-old boy was accidentally poisoned by one spoonful of organophosphate insecticide and presented in cardiac arrest. Spontaneous circulation was restored after initial resuscitation and antidote therapy (atropine and pralidoxime) but the boy finally succumbed with multiple complications. We reviewed the literature on the clinical features and management of acute organophosphate poisoning, and the appropriate protective equipment for preventing secondary poisoning of healthcare workers.
Collapse
|
118
|
Shek KC, Ng P, Hung CY, Lam KK, Lau CL, Ching WM, Kam CW. A Review on the Management of Acute Gastroenteritis in Children. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790401100305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Acute gastroenteritis represents a frequent cause of morbidity among children in Hong Kong. Despite the large number of potential etiologic agents, principles of management of gastroenteritis are uniform and aim to prevent the two major complications - dehydration and malnutrition. A review of the literature was performed. Selected articles were appraised, graded, and synthesised qualitatively. Statements on recommendations were generated. Current evidence emphasises the use of oral rehydration and the early reintroduction of age-appropriate foods. Apart from these two, important aspects of management reviewed included laboratory investigations, role of anti-diarrhoeal agents, and use of antimicrobial agents. Criteria for admission of high-risk children are also addressed.
Collapse
|
119
|
Lau CL, Lai JCH, Hung CY, Kam CW. Outcome of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in a Regional Hospital in Hong Kong. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790501200405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
This study evaluated the resuscitation outcome of adult patients presenting with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) to a regional hospital in Hong Kong. Out of 876 patients of non-traumatic OHCA, 12.7% survived to hospital admission. Only 0.5% of the 876 patients survived to hospital discharge and at one year after discharge. The number needed to treat (NNT) for prehospital asystolic cardiac arrest to have one survival to discharge was 795.
Collapse
|
120
|
Leung YY, Ma KK, Tsang WT, Lau CL, Ko S, Chan WL, Ng F. A Retrospective Study of Geriatric Patients Presenting with Fever to an Accident and Emergency Department in Hong Kong. HONG KONG J EMERG ME 2017. [DOI: 10.1177/102490790801500204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives To study the characteristics and outcome of geriatric patients presenting with fever to an emergency department in Hong Kong and to analyse the factors affecting their length of stay. Methods Retrospective study. Patients aged ≥65 who complained of fever, or with temperature ≥37.5°C (aural) presenting to the Accident and Emergency Department (AED) of Caritas Medical Centre in Hong Kong from 14 November 2006 to 13 December 2006 were enrolled. The demographic data, clinical information and outcomes were studied. The characteristics of short stay and long stay patients were compared. Results There were 370 patients in the study. Their median age was 80. Of these patients, 64.9% were category 3 or above, i.e. urgent, emergent or critical. The most common chief complaints were fever, shortness of breath, dizziness and cough. The admission rate was 81.9%. The median length of stay in hospital was 4.3 days. The most common hospital discharge diagnoses were chest infection, urinary tract infection, and fever with unknown cause. The discharge rate within 48 hours was 24.6%. With further analysis, temperature, walking ability, triage category and neutrophil count were significantly different between short stay (≤48 h) and long stay (>48 h) patients. For those discharged alive either from the AED or ward, 20.1% re-attended the AED within 14 days of discharge, and 17.5% of those previously discharged were admitted again for fever or other problems. Conclusion Elders with fever are a major challenge to the AED and health care facilities. The admission rate for this group of patients is usually high. Elders with poor walking ability, high triage category, high temperature and neutrophil count were prone to have longer stay.
Collapse
|
121
|
Xu Z, Glass K, Lau CL, Geard N, Graves P, Clements A. A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa. Sci Rep 2017; 7:16725. [PMID: 29196679 PMCID: PMC5711879 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2017] [Accepted: 11/20/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Agent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model, intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily adaptable to model other infectious diseases. The synthetic population was characterized by the statistically realistic population and household structure, and high-resolution geographic locations of households. The population was simulated over 40 years from 2010 to 2050. The simulated population was compared to estimates and projections of the U.S. Census Bureau. The results showed the total population would continuously decrease due to the observed large number of emigrants. Population ageing was observed, which was consistent with the latest two population censuses and the Bureau's projections. The sex ratios by age groups were analysed and indicated an increase in the proportion of males in age groups 0-14 and 15-64. The household size followed a Gaussian distribution with an average size of around 5.0 throughout the simulation, slightly less than the initial average size 5.6.
Collapse
|
122
|
Lau CL, Sheridan S, Ryan S, Roineau M, Andreosso A, Fuimaono S, Tufa J, Graves PM. Detecting and confirming residual hotspots of lymphatic filariasis transmission in American Samoa 8 years after stopping mass drug administration. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005914. [PMID: 28922418 PMCID: PMC5619835 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2017] [Revised: 09/28/2017] [Accepted: 08/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) aims to eliminate the disease as a public health problem by 2020 by conducting mass drug administration (MDA) and controlling morbidity. Once elimination targets have been reached, surveillance is critical for ensuring that programmatic gains are sustained, and challenges include timely identification of residual areas of transmission. WHO guidelines encourage cost-efficient surveillance, such as integration with other population-based surveys. In American Samoa, where LF is caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, and Aedes polynesiensis is the main vector, the LF elimination program has made significant progress. Seven rounds of MDA (albendazole and diethycarbamazine) were completed from 2000 to 2006, and Transmission Assessment Surveys were passed in 2010/2011 and 2015. However, a seroprevalence study using an adult serum bank collected in 2010 detected two potential residual foci of transmission, with Og4C3 antigen (Ag) prevalence of 30.8% and 15.6%. We conducted a follow up study in 2014 to verify if transmission was truly occurring by comparing seroprevalence between residents of suspected hotspots and residents of other villages. In adults from non-hotspot villages (N = 602), seroprevalence of Ag (ICT or Og4C3), Bm14 antibody (Ab) and Wb123 Ab were 1.2% (95% CI 0.6-2.6%), 9.6% (95% CI 7.5%-12.3%), and 10.5% (95% CI 7.6-14.3%), respectively. Comparatively, adult residents of Fagali'i (N = 38) had significantly higher seroprevalence of Ag (26.9%, 95% CI 17.3-39.4%), Bm14 Ab (43.4%, 95% CI 32.4-55.0%), and Wb123 Ab 55.2% (95% CI 39.6-69.8%). Adult residents of Ili'ili/Vaitogi/Futiga (N = 113) also had higher prevalence of Ag and Ab, but differences were not statistically significant. The presence of transmission was demonstrated by 1.1% Ag prevalence (95% CI 0.2% to 3.1%) in 283 children aged 7-13 years who lived in one of the suspected hotspots; and microfilaraemia in four individuals, all of whom lived in the suspected hotspots, including a 9 year old child. Our results provide field evidence that integrating LF surveillance with other surveys is effective and feasible for identifying potential hotspots, and conducting surveillance at worksites provides an efficient method of sampling large populations of adults.
Collapse
|
123
|
Coutts SP, King JD, Pa'au M, Fuimaono S, Roth J, King MR, Lammie PJ, Lau CL, Graves PM. Prevalence and risk factors associated with lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa after mass drug administration. Trop Med Health 2017; 45:22. [PMID: 28794687 PMCID: PMC5543440 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-017-0063-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2017] [Accepted: 07/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In 2000, American Samoa had 16.5% prevalence of lymphatic filariasis (LF) antigenemia. Annual mass drug administration (MDA) was conducted using single-dose albendazole plus diethylcarbamazine from 2000 to 2006. This study presents the results of a 2007 population-based PacELF C-survey in all ages and compares the adult filarial antigenemia results of this survey to those of a subsequent 2010 survey in adults with the aim of improving understanding of LF transmission after MDA. RESULTS The 2007 C-survey used simple random sampling of households from a geolocated list. In 2007, the overall LF antigen prevalence by immunochromatographic card test (ICT) for all ages was 2.29% (95% CI 1.66-3.07). Microfilaremia prevalence was 0.27% (95% CI 0.09-0.62). Increasing age (OR 1.04 per year, 95% CI 1.02-1.05) was significantly associated with ICT positivity on multivariate analysis, while having ever taking MDA was protective (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.96). The 2010 survey used a similar spatial sampling design. The overall adult filarial antigenemia prevalence remained relatively stable between the surveys at 3.32% (95% CI 2.44-4.51) by ICT in 2007 and 3.23 (95% CI 2.21-4.69) by Og4C3 antigen in 2010. However, there were changes in village-level prevalence. Eight village/village groupings had antigen-positive individuals identified in 2007 but not in 2010, while three villages/village groupings that had no antigen-positive individuals identified in 2007 had positive individuals identified in 2010. CONCLUSIONS After 7 years of MDA, with four rounds achieving effective coverage, a representative household survey in 2007 showed a decline in prevalence from 16.5 to 2.3% in all ages. However, lack of further decline in adult prevalence by 2010 and fluctuation at the village level showed that overall antigenemia prevalence at a broader scale may not provide an accurate reflection of ongoing transmission at the village level.
Collapse
|
124
|
Owada K, Nielsen M, Lau CL, Clements ACA, Yakob L, Soares Magalhães RJ. Measuring the Effect of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections on Cognitive Function in Children: Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence. ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY 2017; 98:1-37. [PMID: 28942767 DOI: 10.1016/bs.apar.2017.05.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Recently the role of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in children's cognitive developmental impairment has been under scrutiny. We conducted a systematic review of the evidence for associations between STH infections and cognitive function of children using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol. We aimed to identify the domains of cognitive function in three age strata (<24months, 24-59months and ≥60months) and critically appraise the general design protocol of the studies, with a focus on the cognitive function measurement tools used. A total of 42 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria, including 10 studies from a recent Cochrane review. Our findings demonstrate variation in tested domains, lack of consistency in the use of measurement tools and analysis of results. Cognitive function measures in children aged under 59months have been mainly limited to domains of gross motor, fine motor and language skills, whereas in children aged 60months and above most studies tested domains such as memory and processing speed. Even within the same age group the results on the association between STH infections and measures of cognitive development were often conflicting. The current study highlights the need for methodological consensus in the use of measurement tools and data analysis protocols if the effect of STH infections on cognitive function domains in children is to be correctly established. This will be an imperative next step to generate conclusive evidence of the role of STH infections in cognitive development in children.
Collapse
|
125
|
Lau CL, Sweet M, Weinstein P. A stitch in time: unrecognized retained foreign bodies after a needlefish injury. J Travel Med 2017; 24:2930767. [PMID: 28395096 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taw092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2016] [Accepted: 11/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
We present a case report of a traveller injured by a needlefish in the Caribbean. The needlefish leapt from the ocean and struck the traveller's face at high speed, causing a seemingly superficial puncture wound on his nose. Later, it became apparent that multiple fish bones had broken off and lodged in his nasal cavity, very narrowly missing his cribriform plate. Some bones were discharged spontaneously through his nose over the next 3 months, and one required surgical removal. Our report highlights the importance of urgent radiological examination in patients injured by needlefish, even if the external wound appears insignificant.
Collapse
|