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Sajjadi F, Mohammadifard N, Maghroun M, Shirani F, Karimi S, Taheri M, Sarrafzadegan N. The effect of educational and encouragement interventions on anthropometric characteristics, obestatin and adiponectin levels. ARYA ATHEROSCLEROSIS 2019; 15:123-129. [PMID: 31452660 PMCID: PMC6698083 DOI: 10.22122/arya.v15i3.1588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lifestyle modification is the most important strategy for control of obesity and overweight. Obestatin and adiponectin are the biomarkers of obesity. Thus, this study was performed to examine the effect of educational and encouragement interventions and lifestyle modifications on obesity anthropometric as well as obestatin and adiponectin levels. METHODS This semi-experimental study was conducted on a subsample of TABASSOM study. Participants were 41 overweight and obese children and adolescents aged 6-18 years old and 45 overweight and obese adults aged 19-65 years old. Anthropometric characteristics including height, weight, waist and hip circumferences, and body fat percentage (BFP) were measured at the first and after one year at the end of study. We implemented some educational and encouragement interventions regarding dietary modification and physical activity during the study. Obestatin and adiponectin levels were measured at the first and end of study by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method. RESULTS The study did not show significant effect on anthropometric characteristics such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). BFP decreased significantly in boys, total children and adolescent group, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) decreased significantly only in adolescent boys after 1 year (P < 0.050). CONCLUSION Educational and encouraging interventions and lifestyle modifications could lead to decrease of body WHR and BFP in adolescent boys. This is helpful in controlling the increasing rate of obesity.
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Roshandel G, Khoshnia M, Poustchi H, Hemming K, Kamangar F, Gharavi A, Ostovaneh MR, Nateghi A, Majed M, Navabakhsh B, Merat S, Pourshams A, Nalini M, Malekzadeh F, Sadeghi M, Mohammadifard N, Sarrafzadegan N, Naemi-Tabiei M, Fazel A, Brennan P, Etemadi A, Boffetta P, Thomas N, Marshall T, Cheng KK, Malekzadeh R. Effectiveness of polypill for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (PolyIran): a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial. Lancet 2019; 394:672-683. [PMID: 31448738 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(19)31791-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 188] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2019] [Revised: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 07/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A fixed-dose combination therapy (polypill strategy) has been proposed as an approach to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The PolyIran study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of a four-component polypill including aspirin, atorvastatin, hydrochlorothiazide, and either enalapril or valsartan for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. METHODS The PolyIran study was a two-group, pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial nested within the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS), a cohort study with 50 045 participants aged 40-75 years from the Golestan province in Iran. Clusters (villages) were randomly allocated (1:1) to either a package of non-pharmacological preventive interventions alone (minimal care group) or together with a once-daily polypill tablet (polypill group). Randomisation was stratified by three districts (Gonbad, Aq-Qala, and Kalaleh), with the village as the unit of randomisation. We used a balanced randomisation algorithm, considering block sizes of 20 and balancing for cluster size or natural log of the cluster size (depending on the skewness within strata). Randomisation was done at a fixed point in time (Jan 18, 2011) by statisticians at the University of Birmingham (Birmingham, UK), independent of the local study team. The non-pharmacological preventive interventions (including educational training about healthy lifestyle-eg, healthy diet with low salt, sugar, and fat content, exercise, weight control, and abstinence from smoking and opium) were delivered by the PolyIran field visit team at months 3 and 6, and then every 6 months thereafter. Two formulations of polypill tablet were used in this study. Participants were first prescribed polypill one (hydrochlorothiazide 12·5 mg, aspirin 81 mg, atorvastatin 20 mg, and enalapril 5 mg). Participants who developed cough during follow-up were switched by a trained study physician to polypill two, which included valsartan 40 mg instead of enalapril 5 mg. Participants were followed up for 60 months. The primary outcome-occurrence of major cardiovascular events (including hospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome, fatal myocardial infarction, sudden death, heart failure, coronary artery revascularisation procedures, and non-fatal and fatal stroke)-was centrally assessed by the GCS follow-up team, who were masked to allocation status. We did intention-to-treat analyses by including all participants who met eligibility criteria in the two study groups. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01271985. FINDINGS Between Feb 22, 2011, and April 15, 2013, we enrolled 6838 individuals into the study-3417 (in 116 clusters) in the minimal care group and 3421 (in 120 clusters) in the polypill group. 1761 (51·5%) of 3421 participants in the polypill group were women, as were 1679 (49·1%) of 3417 participants in the minimal care group. Median adherence to polypill tablets was 80·5% (IQR 48·5-92·2). During follow-up, 301 (8·8%) of 3417 participants in the minimal care group had major cardiovascular events compared with 202 (5·9%) of 3421 participants in the polypill group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·66, 95% CI 0·55-0·80). We found no statistically significant interaction with the presence (HR 0·61, 95% CI 0·49-0·75) or absence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease (0·80; 0·51-1·12; pinteraction=0·19). When restricted to participants in the polypill group with high adherence, the reduction in the risk of major cardiovascular events was even greater compared with the minimal care group (adjusted HR 0·43, 95% CI 0·33-0·55). The frequency of adverse events was similar between the two study groups. 21 intracranial haemorrhages were reported during the 5 years of follow-up-ten participants in the polypill group and 11 participants in the minimal care group. There were 13 physician-confirmed diagnoses of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the polypill group and nine in the minimal care group. INTERPRETATION Use of polypill was effective in preventing major cardiovascular events. Medication adherence was high and adverse event numbers were low. The polypill strategy could be considered as an additional effective component in controlling cardiovascular diseases, especially in LMICs. FUNDING Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Barakat Foundation, and Alborz Darou.
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Rosengren A, Smyth A, Rangarajan S, Ramasundarahettige C, Bangdiwala SI, AlHabib KF, Avezum A, Bengtsson Boström K, Chifamba J, Gulec S, Gupta R, Igumbor EU, Iqbal R, Ismail N, Joseph P, Kaur M, Khatib R, Kruger IM, Lamelas P, Lanas F, Lear SA, Li W, Wang C, Quiang D, Wang Y, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mony PK, Poirier P, Srilatha S, Szuba A, Teo K, Wielgosz A, Yeates KE, Yusoff K, Yusuf R, Yusufali AH, Attaei MW, McKee M, Yusuf S. Socioeconomic status and risk of cardiovascular disease in 20 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiologic (PURE) study. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2019; 7:e748-e760. [PMID: 31028013 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30045-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 285] [Impact Index Per Article: 57.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2018] [Revised: 12/28/2018] [Accepted: 01/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status-wealth and education-differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management. METHODS In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorised as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family. FINDINGS Recruitment to the study began on Jan 12, 2001, with most participants enrolled between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2014. 160 299 (87·9%) of 182 375 participants with baseline data had available follow-up event data and were eligible for inclusion. After exclusion of 6130 (3·8%) participants without complete baseline or follow-up data, 154 169 individuals remained for analysis, from five low-income, 11 middle-income, and four high-income countries. Participants were followed-up for a mean of 7·5 years. Major cardiovascular events were more common among those with low levels of education in all types of country studied, but much more so in low-income countries. After adjustment for wealth and other factors, the HR (low level of education vs high level of education) was 1·23 (95% CI 0·96-1·58) for high-income countries, 1·59 (1·42-1·78) in middle-income countries, and 2·23 (1·79-2·77) in low-income countries (pinteraction<0·0001). We observed similar results for all-cause mortality, with HRs of 1·50 (1·14-1·98) for high-income countries, 1·80 (1·58-2·06) in middle-income countries, and 2·76 (2·29-3·31) in low-income countries (pinteraction<0·0001). By contrast, we found no or weak associations between wealth and these two outcomes. Differences in outcomes between educational groups were not explained by differences in risk factors, which decreased as the level of education increased in high-income countries, but increased as the level of education increased in low-income countries (pinteraction<0·0001). Medical care (eg, management of hypertension, diabetes, and secondary prevention) seemed to play an important part in adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes because such care is likely to be poorer in people with the lowest levels of education compared to those with higher levels of education in low-income countries; however, we observed less marked differences in care based on level of education in middle-income countries and no or minor differences in high-income countries. INTERPRETATION Although people with a lower level of education in low-income and middle-income countries have higher incidence of and mortality from cardiovascular disease, they have better overall risk factor profiles. However, these individuals have markedly poorer health care. Policies to reduce health inequities globally must include strategies to overcome barriers to care, especially for those with lower levels of education. FUNDING Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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Khosravi A, Mohammadifard N, Gharipour M, Abdollahi Z, Nouri F, Feizi A, Jozan M, Sarrafzadegan N. Low correlation between morning spot and 24-hour urine samples for estimating sodium intake in an Iranian population: Isfahan Salt Study. INT J VITAM NUTR RES 2019; 89:185-191. [PMID: 30887904 DOI: 10.1024/0300-9831/a000558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Introduction: Although difficult, the 24-hour urine sodium excretion is still considered as the gold standard method to estimate salt intake. The current study aimed to assess the validity of using spot urine samples in comparison with the standard 24-hour urine collection to estimate sodium and potassium intake in healthy Iranian adults. Methods and subjects: This cross-sectional study was performed on 1099 healthy Iranians aged 18-69 years. Samples of 24-hour and fasting morning spot urine were collected to measure sodium and potassium excretions. Tanaka's formula was utilized to predict the 24-hour sodium and potassium urinary excretions based on the spot values. Results: The difference between measured and estimated sodium excretion values was 4265 mg/day (95% CI: 4106-4424; P < 0.001) and 2242 mg/day in case of potassium excretion (95% CI: 2140-2344; P < 0.001). There was a weak significant correlation between the 24-hour urine sodium and potassium excretion and the predicted values (intraclass correlations: 0.22 and 0.28, respectively; both P < 0.001). Conclusion: The weak association between the predicted and measured values of sodium and potassium along with the marked overestimation of daily sodium and potassium excretions based on the spot urine and using Tanaka formula indicates that Tanaka formula is not practical for the prediction of sodium and potassium or salt intake in Iranian adults. Using other spot urine sampling times and/or adopting a formula designed based on the characteristics of the Iranian population may increase the validity of spot urine tests.
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Zaribaf F, Mohammadifard N, Sarrafzadegan N, Karimi G, Gholampour A, Azadbakht L. Dietary patterns in relation to lipid profiles among Iranian adults. J Cardiovasc Thorac Res 2019; 11:19-27. [PMID: 31024668 DOI: 10.15171/jcvtr.2019.04] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2018] [Accepted: 03/01/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Lipid metabolism is one of the main concerns of cardiovascular disease and atherosclerosis. Little is known about the association between dietary patterns and dyslipidemia. Therefore, the present study aimed to determine such association among Iranian adults. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1433 Iranian adults in Isfahan Healthy Heart Program (IHHP). Usual dietary intakes were assessed with the use of a 48 items food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Factor analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. Three major dietary patterns were identified: western, semi healthy and healthy fat patterns. Results: After adjustment, subjects in the upper quartiles of western dietary pattern were more likely to have high total cholesterol concentrations than those in the first quartile (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.25-3.42). Individuals with greater adherence to western dietary pattern had greater odds of having high low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels compared with those in the lowest quartiles (2.53; 1.45-4.40). Conclusion: Semi healthy dietary pattern was not associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Same trend was observed for healthy fat dietary pattern. Significant association was found between western dietary pattern and dyslipidemia among Iranian adults.
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O'Donnell M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, McQueen MJ, O'Leary N, Yin L, Liu X, Swaminathan S, Khatib R, Rosengren A, Ferguson J, Smyth A, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Diaz R, Avezum A, Lanas F, Ismail N, Yusoff K, Dans A, Iqbal R, Szuba A, Mohammadifard N, Oguz A, Yusufali AH, Alhabib KF, Kruger IM, Yusuf R, Chifamba J, Yeates K, Dagenais G, Wielgosz A, Lear SA, Teo K, Yusuf S. Joint association of urinary sodium and potassium excretion with cardiovascular events and mortality: prospective cohort study. BMJ 2019; 364:l772. [PMID: 30867146 PMCID: PMC6415648 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the joint association of sodium and potassium urinary excretion (as surrogate measures of intake) with cardiovascular events and mortality, in the context of current World Health Organization recommendations for daily intake (<2.0 g sodium, >3.5 g potassium) in adults. DESIGN International prospective cohort study. SETTING 18 high, middle, and low income countries, sampled from urban and rural communities. PARTICIPANTS 103 570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day). RESULTS Mean estimated sodium and potassium urinary excretion were 4.93 g/day and 2.12 g/day, respectively. After a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 7884 (6.1%) participants had died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Increasing urinary sodium excretion was positively associated with increasing potassium excretion (unadjusted r=0.34), and only 0.002% had a concomitant urinary excretion of <2.0 g/day of sodium and >3.5 g/day of potassium. A J-shaped association was observed of sodium excretion and inverse association of potassium excretion with death and cardiovascular events. For joint sodium and potassium excretion categories, the lowest risk of death and cardiovascular events occurred in the group with moderate sodium excretion (3-5 g/day) and higher potassium excretion (21.9% of cohort). Compared with this reference group, the combinations of low potassium with low sodium excretion (hazard ratio 1.23, 1.11 to 1.37; 7.4% of cohort) and low potassium with high sodium excretion (1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; 13.8% of cohort) were associated with the highest risk, followed by low sodium excretion (1.19, 1.02 to 1.38; 3.3% of cohort) and high sodium excretion (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18; 29.6% of cohort) among those with potassium excretion greater than the median. Higher potassium excretion attenuated the increased cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium excretion (P for interaction=0.007). CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that the simultaneous target of low sodium intake (<2 g/day) with high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) is extremely uncommon. Combined moderate sodium intake (3-5 g/day) with high potassium intake is associated with the lowest risk of mortality and cardiovascular events.
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Dehghan M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, Sheridan P, Mohan V, Iqbal R, Gupta R, Lear S, Wentzel-Viljoen E, Avezum A, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Mony P, Varma RP, Kumar R, Chifamba J, Alhabib KF, Mohammadifard N, Oguz A, Lanas F, Rozanska D, Bostrom KB, Yusoff K, Tsolkile LP, Dans A, Yusufali A, Orlandini A, Poirier P, Khatib R, Hu B, Wei L, Yin L, Deeraili A, Yeates K, Yusuf R, Ismail N, Mozaffarian D, Teo K, Anand SS, Yusuf S. Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet 2018; 392:2288-2297. [PMID: 30217460 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31812-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 253] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2018] [Revised: 07/30/2018] [Accepted: 08/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. METHODS The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; ptrend=0·4113). INTERPRETATION Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort. FUNDING Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Ford JA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Galan A, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gebre T, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gessner BD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, 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Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Machado ÍE, Madotto F, Mai HT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martin RV, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Meier T, Mekonnen FA, Melaku YA, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momeniha F, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffarian D, Mruts KB, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Muhammed OS, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Nabhan AF, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik N, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Neal B, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen M, Nguyen NB, Nichols E, Nie J, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nishi N, Nixon MR, Nojomi M, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Obermeyer CM, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SK, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paulson KR, Paz Ballesteros WC, Pearce N, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Pischon T, Pishgar F, Plana-Ripoll O, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Postma MJ, Poulton R, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Raju SB, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reddy KS, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro ALP, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rodríguez-Ramírez S, Roever L, Román Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, 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C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1923-1994. [PMID: 30496105 PMCID: PMC6227755 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2618] [Impact Index Per Article: 436.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. FINDINGS In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. INTERPRETATION By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1789-1858. [PMID: 30496104 PMCID: PMC6227754 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7#] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Saroshe S, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Starodubov VI, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Strong M, Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Chow CK, Ramasundarahettige C, Hu W, AlHabib KF, Avezum A, Cheng X, Chifamba J, Dagenais G, Dans A, Egbujie BA, Gupta R, Iqbal R, Ismail N, Keskinler MV, Khatib R, Kruger L, Kumar R, Lanas F, Lear S, Lopez-Jaramillo P, McKee M, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mony P, Orlandini A, Rosengren A, Vijayakumar K, Wei L, Yeates K, Yusoff K, Yusuf R, Yusufali A, Zatonska K, Zhou Y, Islam S, Corsi D, Rangarajan S, Teo K, Gerstein HC, Yusuf S. Availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes across high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective epidemiological study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2018; 6:798-808. [PMID: 30170949 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(18)30233-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2018] [Revised: 07/22/2018] [Accepted: 07/23/2018] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data are scarce on the availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes. Our aim was to examine the availability and affordability of metformin, sulfonylureas, and insulin across multiple regions of the world and explore the effect of these on medicine use. METHODS In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, participants aged 35-70 years (n=156 625) were recruited from 110 803 households, in 604 communities and 22 countries; availability (presence of any dose of medication in the pharmacy on the day of audit) and medicine cost data were collected from pharmacies with the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health audit tool. Our primary analysis was to describe the availability and affordability of metformin and insulin and also commonly used and prescribed combinations of two medicines for diabetes management (two oral drugs, metformin plus a sulphonylurea [either glibenclamide (also known as glyburide) or gliclazide] and one oral drug plus insulin [metformin plus insulin]). Medicines were defined as affordable if the cost of medicines was less than 20% of capacity-to-pay (the household income minus food expenditure). Our analyses included data collected in pharmacies and data from representative samples of households. Data on availability were ascertained during the pharmacy audit, as were data on cost of medications. These cost data were used to estimate the cost of a month's supply of essential medicines for diabetes. We estimated affordability of medicines using income data from household surveys. FINDINGS Metformin was available in 113 (100%) of 113 pharmacies from high-income countries, 112 (88·2%) of 127 pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 179 (86·1%) of 208 pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, 44 (64·7%) of 68 pharmacies in low-income countries (excluding India), and 88 (100%) of 88 pharmacies in India. Insulin was available in 106 (93·8%) pharmacies in high-income countries, 51 (40·2%) pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 61 (29·3%) pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, seven (10·3%) pharmacies in lower-income countries, and 67 (76·1%) of 88 pharmacies in India. We estimated 0·7% of households in high-income countries and 26·9% of households in low-income countries could not afford metformin and 2·8% of households in high-income countries and 63·0% of households in low-income countries could not afford insulin. Among the 13 569 (8·6% of PURE participants) that reported a diagnosis of diabetes, 1222 (74·0%) participants reported diabetes medicine use in high-income countries compared with 143 (29·6%) participants in low-income countries. In multilevel models, availability and affordability were significantly associated with use of diabetes medicines. INTERPRETATION Availability and affordability of essential diabetes medicines are poor in low-income and middle-income countries. Awareness of these global differences might importantly drive change in access for patients with diabetes. FUNDING Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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Mente A, O'Donnell M, Rangarajan S, McQueen M, Dagenais G, Wielgosz A, Lear S, Ah STL, Wei L, Diaz R, Avezum A, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Lanas F, Mony P, Szuba A, Iqbal R, Yusuf R, Mohammadifard N, Khatib R, Yusoff K, Ismail N, Gulec S, Rosengren A, Yusufali A, Kruger L, Tsolekile LP, Chifamba J, Dans A, Alhabib KF, Yeates K, Teo K, Yusuf S. Urinary sodium excretion, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: a community-level prospective epidemiological cohort study. Lancet 2018; 392:496-506. [PMID: 30129465 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31376-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 204] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2018] [Revised: 06/04/2018] [Accepted: 06/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND WHO recommends that populations consume less than 2 g/day sodium as a preventive measure against cardiovascular disease, but this target has not been achieved in any country. This recommendation is primarily based on individual-level data from short-term trials of blood pressure (BP) without data relating low sodium intake to reduced cardiovascular events from randomised trials or observational studies. We investigated the associations between community-level mean sodium and potassium intake, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. METHODS The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is ongoing in 21 countries. Here we report an analysis done in 18 countries with data on clinical outcomes. Eligible participants were adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular disease, sampled from the general population. We used morning fasting urine to estimate 24 h sodium and potassium excretion as a surrogate for intake. We assessed community-level associations between sodium and potassium intake and BP in 369 communities (all >50 participants) and cardiovascular disease and mortality in 255 communities (all >100 participants), and used individual-level data to adjust for known confounders. FINDINGS 95 767 participants in 369 communities were assessed for BP and 82 544 in 255 communities for cardiovascular outcomes with follow-up for a median of 8·1 years. 82 (80%) of 103 communities in China had a mean sodium intake greater than 5 g/day, whereas in other countries 224 (84%) of 266 communities had a mean intake of 3-5 g/day. Overall, mean systolic BP increased by 2·86 mm Hg per 1 g increase in mean sodium intake, but positive associations were only seen among the communities in the highest tertile of sodium intake (p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). The association between mean sodium intake and major cardiovascular events showed significant deviations from linearity (p=0·043) due to a significant inverse association in the lowest tertile of sodium intake (lowest tertile <4·43 g/day, mean intake 4·04 g/day, range 3·42-4·43; change -1·00 events per 1000 years, 95% CI -2·00 to -0·01, p=0·0497), no association in the middle tertile (middle tertile 4·43-5·08 g/day, mean intake 4·70 g/day, 4·44-5.05; change 0·24 events per 1000 years, -2·12 to 2·61, p=0·8391), and a positive but non-significant association in the highest tertile (highest tertile >5·08 g/day, mean intake 5·75 g/day, >5·08-7·49; change 0·37 events per 1000 years, -0·03 to 0·78, p=0·0712). A strong association was seen with stroke in China (mean sodium intake 5·58 g/day, 0·42 events per 1000 years, 95% CI 0·16 to 0·67, p=0·0020) compared with in other countries (4·49 g/day, -0·26 events, -0·46 to -0·06, p=0·0124; p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). All major cardiovascular outcomes decreased with increasing potassium intake in all countries. INTERPRETATION Sodium intake was associated with cardiovascular disease and strokes only in communities where mean intake was greater than 5 g/day. A strategy of sodium reduction in these communities and countries but not in others might be appropriate. FUNDING Population Health Research Institute, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian Institutes of Health Canada Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, and European Research Council.
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Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Bixby H, Danaei G, Hajifathalian K, Taddei C, Carrillo-Larco RM, Djalalinia S, Khatibzadeh S, Lugero C, Peykari N, Zhang WZ, Bennett J, Bilano V, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Chen Z, Hambleton IR, Jackson RT, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Liu J, Malekzadeh R, Neuhauser HK, Sorić M, Starc G, Sundström J, Woodward M, Ezzati M, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad NA, Ahmadvand A, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Akhtaeva N, Al-Raddadi R, Ali MM, Ali O, Alkerwi A, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Ängquist LH, Anjana RM, Ansong D, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azizi F, Babu BV, Bahijri S, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Barkat A, Barros AJD, Barros MV, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batyrbek A, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Romdhane HB, Benet M, Benson LS, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bi Y, Bikbov M, Bista B, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boeing H, Boggia JG, Boissonnet CP, Bongard V, Borchini R, Bovet P, Braeckman L, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Bugge A, Burns C, Bursztyn M, de León AC, Cacciottolo J, Cai H, Cameron C, Can G, Cândido APC, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Dekkaki IC, Chetrit A, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Cho Y, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clays E, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Coppinger TC, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crujeiras AB, Cruz JJ, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Diaz A, Dickerson TT, Djalalinia S, Do HTP, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Doua K, Drygas W, Dulskiene V, Džakula A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eggertsen R, Ekelund U, El Ati J, Elliott P, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Evans A, Faeh D, Fall CH, Farzadfar F, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Ferrieres J, Finn JD, Fischer K, Föger B, Foo LH, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, do Carmo Franco M, Franco OH, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujita Y, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Geleijnse JM, Ghasemian A, Ghimire A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Goldsmith RA, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, Gorbea MB, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Grujic V, Gu D, Guan OP, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter M, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Hadaegh F, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hardy R, Hari Kumar R, Hata J, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Elisabeth M, Henriques A, Cadena LH, Herrala S, Heshmat R, Hihtaniemi IT, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Dinc GH, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Than Htike MM, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huisman M, Husseini AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Wong NI, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Irazola VE, Islam M, al-Safi Ismail A, Ivkovic V, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou H, Jafar T, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Jasienska G, Jelaković A, Jelaković B, Jennings G, Jeong SL, Jiang CQ, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Jóźwiak J, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jureša V, Kaaks R, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamaruddin NA, Karki KB, Kasaeian A, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva G, Keil U, Boker LK, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kemper HCG, Kengne AP, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Key T, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Khateeb M, Khaw KT, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, Korrovits P, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Kruger HS, Kubinova R, Kuciene R, Kuh D, Kujala UM, Kulaga Z, Krishna Kumar R, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Kuulasmaa K, Kyobutungi C, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Lam TH, Landrove O, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Laugsand LE, Laxmaiah A, Le Nguyen Bao K, Le TD, Leclercq C, Lee J, Lee J, Lehtimäki T, León-Muñoz LM, Levitt NS, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Litwin M, Liu J, Lorbeer R, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lunet N, Lytsy P, Ma G, Ma J, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machi S, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magriplis E, Majer M, Makdisse M, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Malyutina S, Manios Y, Mann JI, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Marques-Vidal P, Marques LP, Marrugat J, Martorell R, Mathiesen EB, Matijasevich A, Matsha TE, Mbanya JCN, Mc Donald Posso AJ, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Medzioniene J, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Meshram II, Metspalu A, Meyer HE, Mi J, Mikkel K, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Francisco J, Miranda JJ, Mirrakhimov E, Mišigoj-Durakovic M, Modesti PA, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Mohd Yusoff MF, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monyeki KDK, Moon JS, Moreira LB, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota J, Esmaeel Motlagh M, Motta J, Msyamboza KP, Mu TT, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Murphy N, Mursu J, Musil V, Nabipour I, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nang EEK, Nangia VB, Narake S, Nauck M, Navarrete-Muñoz EM, Ndiaye NC, Neal WA, Nenko I, Neovius M, Nervi F, Neuhauser HK, Nguyen CT, Nguyen ND, Nguyen QN, Nguyen QV, Nieto-Martínez RE, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Nishtar S, Noale M, Noboa OA, Noorbala AA, Norat T, Noto D, Al Nsour M, O'Reilly D, Oda E, Oehlers G, Oh K, Ohara K, Olinto MTA, Oliveira IO, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Ono LM, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Osmond C, Ostojic SM, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Overvad K, Owusu-Dabo E, Paccaud FM, Padez C, Pahomova E, Pajak A, Palli D, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Papandreou D, Park SW, Parnell WR, Parsaeian M, Patel ND, Pecin I, Pednekar MS, Peer N, Peeters PH, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pigeot I, Pikhart H, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Plans-Rubió P, Polašek O, Porta M, Portegies MLP, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Prashant M, Price JF, Puder JJ, Puiu M, Punab M, Qasrawi RF, Qorbani M, Bao TQ, Radic I, Radisauskas R, Rahman M, Raitakari O, Raj M, Ramachandra Rao S, Ramachandran A, Ramos E, Rampal L, Rampal S, Rangel Reina DA, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Ribeiro R, Riboli E, Rigo F, Rinke de Wit TF, Ritti-Dias RM, Robinson SM, Robitaille C, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez M, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Rojas-Martinez R, Romaguera D, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Sandra Ruiz-Betancourt B, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Saidi O, Sakarya S, Salanave B, Salazar Martinez E, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sans S, Santos DA, Santos IS, Nunes dos Santos R, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarganas G, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Savva S, Scazufca M, Schargrodsky H, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Schultsz C, Schutte AE, Sein AA, Sen A, Senbanjo IO, Sepanlou SG, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, Shin DW, Shin Y, Si-Ramlee K, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Santos Silva DA, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Skovbjerg S, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Smith MC, Snijder MB, So HK, Sobngwi E, Söderberg S, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Song Y, Sørensen TIA, Soric M, Jérome CS, Soumare A, Staessen JA, Starc G, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stocks T, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sy RG, Shyong Tai E, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Tautu OF, Taylor A, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thijs L, Thuesen BH, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Tormo MJ, Torrent M, Traissac P, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel EE, Ulmer H, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, Valvi D, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Veronesi G, Monique Verschuren WM, Verstraeten R, Victora CG, Viet L, Viikari-Juntura E, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vlasoff T, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Wade AN, Wagner A, Walton J, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley RS, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams EA, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong JYY, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Giwercman Wu A, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoshihara A, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff AF, Zainuddin AA, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zdrojewski T, Zeng Y, Zhao D, Zhao W, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zhu D, Zhussupov B, Zimmermann E, Cisneros JZ. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants. Int J Epidemiol 2018; 47:872-883i. [PMID: 29579276 PMCID: PMC6005056 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyy016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 01/24/2018] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. METHODS We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. RESULTS In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. CONCLUSIONS Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.
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Heidari Z, Feizi A, Azadbakht L, Mohammadifard N, Maghroun M, Sarrafzadegan N. Usual energy and macronutrient intakes in a large sample of Iranian middle-aged and elderly populations. Nutr Diet 2018; 76:174-183. [PMID: 29749015 DOI: 10.1111/1747-0080.12431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2017] [Revised: 01/24/2018] [Accepted: 03/09/2018] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
AIM The present study aimed to assess the usual distribution of energy and macronutrient intake among a large representative sample of Iranian healthy middle-aged and elderly people. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, a second follow-up survey of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) was carried out; 1922 people aged 40 years and older were investigated. Dietary intakes were collected using 24-hour recall and two or more consecutive food records. Distribution of energy and macronutrient intake was estimated using traditional and National Cancer Institute (NCI) methods. RESULTS The mean usual intake of energy was 1749.2 kcal based on the NCI method. Carbohydrate constituted 59.98% and protein 17.42% of total energy intake. The mean contributions of total fat, saturated fatty acids (SFA), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) to energy intake were 25.74%, 9.5%, 4.92 and 7.75%, respectively. Approximately 7% of studied females aged 51-70 years met the recommended or higher levels for fibre. Females had significantly higher compliance of the recommended cholesterol level than males (age range of 40-70 years; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS It appears that Iranian middle-aged and elderly people are advancing towards a high risk of obesity and non-communicable chronic diseases. Nutritional interventions for improving the diet amongst this at-risk population are necessary.
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Mohammadifard N, Gotay C, Humphries KH, Ignaszewski A, Esmaillzadeh A, Sarrafzadegan N. Electrolyte minerals intake and cardiovascular health. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/10408398.2018.1453474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
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Hassannejad R, Kazemi I, Sadeghi M, Mohammadifard N, Roohafza H, Sarrafzadegan N, Talaei M, Mansourian M. Longitudinal association of metabolic syndrome and dietary patterns: A 13-year prospective population-based cohort study. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis 2018; 28:352-360. [PMID: 29458993 DOI: 10.1016/j.numecd.2017.10.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2017] [Revised: 10/23/2017] [Accepted: 10/30/2017] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Diet is a potential factor contributing to the development of the Metabolic Syndrome (MetS). This longitudinal study with repeated measurements of dietary intake was thus conducted to examine the longitudinal association between major dietary patterns and risk of MetS. METHODS AND RESULTS The study was conducted within the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS), in which 1387 participants were followed from 2001 to 2013. Validated food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, fasting serum lipids and blood sugars were evaluated in three phases of the study. Mixed effect Logistic and Cumulative Logit regressions were applied to evaluate the longitudinal associations between dietary patterns change and MetS and number of MetS components. Three dietary patterns were identified: Healthy, Iranian and Western dietary patterns. After adjustment for potential confounders, the higher scores of Healthy diet were inversely associated with the risk of MetS and number of MetS components (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.36-0.70, OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.39-0.70, respectively). The greater adherence to the Iranian diet was positively associated with the risk of MetS and number of MetS components (OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.65, OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.16-1.81, respectively). The Western dietary pattern did not show any significant associations. CONCLUSION Adherence to a Healthy diet was associated with lower risk of MetS even in a developing country setting. However, the Iranian diet was positively associated with the risk of MetS. These results may guide the development of improved preventive nutrition interventions in this adult population.
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Lear SA, Hu W, Rangarajan S, Gasevic D, Leong D, Iqbal R, Casanova A, Swaminathan S, Anjana RM, Kumar R, Rosengren A, Wei L, Yang W, Chuangshi W, Huaxing L, Nair S, Diaz R, Swidon H, Gupta R, Mohammadifard N, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Oguz A, Zatonska K, Seron P, Avezum A, Poirier P, Teo K, Yusuf S. The effect of physical activity on mortality and cardiovascular disease in 130 000 people from 17 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: the PURE study. Lancet 2017; 390:2643-2654. [PMID: 28943267 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31634-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 712] [Impact Index Per Article: 101.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2016] [Revised: 05/27/2017] [Accepted: 05/31/2017] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Physical activity has a protective effect against cardiovascular disease (CVD) in high-income countries, where physical activity is mainly recreational, but it is not known if this is also observed in lower-income countries, where physical activity is mainly non-recreational. We examined whether different amounts and types of physical activity are associated with lower mortality and CVD in countries at different economic levels. METHODS In this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 17 countries (Canada, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Poland, Turkey, Malaysia, South Africa, China, Colombia, Iran, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe). Within each country, urban and rural areas in and around selected cities and towns were identified to reflect the geographical diversity. Within these communities, we invited individuals aged between 35 and 70 years who intended to live at their current address for at least another 4 years. Total physical activity was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPQA). Participants with pre-existing CVD were excluded from the analyses. Mortality and CVD were recorded during a mean of 6·9 years of follow-up. Primary clinical outcomes during follow-up were mortality plus major CVD (CVD mortality, incident myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure), either as a composite or separately. The effects of physical activity on mortality and CVD were adjusted for sociodemographic factors and other risk factors taking into account household, community, and country clustering. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2010, 168 916 participants were enrolled, of whom 141 945 completed the IPAQ. Analyses were limited to the 130 843 participants without pre-existing CVD. Compared with low physical activity (<600 metabolic equivalents [MET] × minutes per week or <150 minutes per week of moderate intensity physical activity), moderate (600-3000 MET × minutes or 150-750 minutes per week) and high physical activity (>3000 MET × minutes or >750 minutes per week) were associated with graded reduction in mortality (hazard ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·74-0·87 and 0·65, 0·60-0·71; p<0·0001 for trend), and major CVD (0·86, 0·78-0·93; p<0·001 for trend). Higher physical activity was associated with lower risk of CVD and mortality in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. The adjusted population attributable fraction for not meeting the physical activity guidelines was 8·0% for mortality and 4·6% for major CVD, and for not meeting high physical activity was 13·0% for mortality and 9·5% for major CVD. Both recreational and non-recreational physical activity were associated with benefits. INTERPRETATION Higher recreational and non-recreational physical activity was associated with a lower risk of mortality and CVD events in individuals from low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Increasing physical activity is a simple, widely applicable, low cost global strategy that could reduce deaths and CVD in middle age. FUNDING Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, Ontario SPOR Support Unit, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, AstraZeneca, Sanofi-Aventis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Servier, GSK, Novartis, King Pharma, and national and local organisations in participating countries that are listed at the end of the Article.
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Mohammadifard N, Humphries KH, Gotay C, Mena-Sánchez G, Salas-Salvadó J, Esmaillzadeh A, Ignaszewski A, Sarrafzadegan N. Trace minerals intake: Risks and benefits for cardiovascular health. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr 2017; 59:1334-1346. [PMID: 29236516 DOI: 10.1080/10408398.2017.1406332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Minerals play a major role in regulating cardiovascular function. Imbalances in electrolyte minerals are frequent and potentially hazardous occurrences that may lead to the development of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Transition metals, such as iron, zinc, copper and selenium, play a major role in cell metabolism. However, there is controversy over the effects of dietary and supplemental intake of these metals on cardiovascular risk factors and events. Since their pro-oxidant or antioxidant functions can have different effects on cardiovascular health. While deficiency of these trace elements can cause cardiovascular dysfunction, several studies have also shown a positive association between metal serum levels and cardiovascular risk factors and events. Thus, a J- or U-shaped relationship between the transition minerals and cardiovascular events has been proposed. Given the existing controversies, large, well-designed, long-term, randomized clinical trials are required to better examine the effects of trace mineral intake on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in the general population. In this review, we discuss the role of dietary and/or supplemental iron, copper, zinc, and selenium on cardiovascular health. We will also clarify their clinical applications, benefits, and harms in CVDs prevention.
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Dehghan M, Mente A, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, Li W, Mohan V, Iqbal R, Kumar R, Wentzel-Viljoen E, Rosengren A, Amma LI, Avezum A, Chifamba J, Diaz R, Khatib R, Lear S, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Liu X, Gupta R, Mohammadifard N, Gao N, Oguz A, Ramli AS, Seron P, Sun Y, Szuba A, Tsolekile L, Wielgosz A, Yusuf R, Hussein Yusufali A, Teo KK, Rangarajan S, Dagenais G, Bangdiwala SI, Islam S, Anand SS, Yusuf S. Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet 2017; 390:2050-2062. [PMID: 28864332 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32252-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 675] [Impact Index Per Article: 96.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2017] [Revised: 07/25/2017] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The relationship between macronutrients and cardiovascular disease and mortality is controversial. Most available data are from European and North American populations where nutrition excess is more likely, so their applicability to other populations is unclear. METHODS The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering. FINDINGS During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], ptrend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], ptrend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], ptrend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], ptrend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], ptrend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], ptrend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings. FUNDING Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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Miller V, Mente A, Dehghan M, Rangarajan S, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, Dagenais G, Gupta R, Mohan V, Lear S, Bangdiwala SI, Schutte AE, Wentzel-Viljoen E, Avezum A, Altuntas Y, Yusoff K, Ismail N, Peer N, Chifamba J, Diaz R, Rahman O, Mohammadifard N, Lana F, Zatonska K, Wielgosz A, Yusufali A, Iqbal R, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Khatib R, Rosengren A, Kutty VR, Li W, Liu J, Liu X, Yin L, Teo K, Anand S, Yusuf S. Fruit, vegetable, and legume intake, and cardiovascular disease and deaths in 18 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet 2017; 390:2037-2049. [PMID: 28864331 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32253-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 349] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2017] [Revised: 07/25/2017] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The association between intake of fruits, vegetables, and legumes with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated extensively in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China, but little or no data are available from the Middle East, South America, Africa, or south Asia. METHODS We did a prospective cohort study (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology [PURE] in 135 335 individuals aged 35 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease from 613 communities in 18 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in seven geographical regions: North America and Europe, South America, the Middle East, south Asia, China, southeast Asia, and Africa. We documented their diet using country-specific food frequency questionnaires at baseline. Standardised questionnaires were used to collect information about demographic factors, socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, and alcohol intake), health history and medication use, and family history of cardiovascular disease. The follow-up period varied based on the date when recruitment began at each site or country. The main clinical outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (defined as death from cardiovascular causes and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure), fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal strokes, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality. Cox frailty models with random effects were used to assess associations between fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption with risk of cardiovascular disease events and mortality. FINDINGS Participants were enrolled into the study between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013. For the current analysis, we included all unrefuted outcome events in the PURE study database through March 31, 2017. Overall, combined mean fruit, vegetable and legume intake was 3·91 (SD 2·77) servings per day. During a median 7·4 years (5·5-9·3) of follow-up, 4784 major cardiovascular disease events, 1649 cardiovascular deaths, and 5796 total deaths were documented. Higher total fruit, vegetable, and legume intake was inversely associated with major cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in the models adjusted for age, sex, and centre (random effect). The estimates were substantially attenuated in the multivariable adjusted models for major cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·74-1·10, ptrend=0·1301), myocardial infarction (0·99, 0·74-1·31; ptrend=0·2033), stroke (0·92, 0·67-1·25; ptrend=0·7092), cardiovascular mortality (0·73, 0·53-1·02; ptrend=0·0568), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·84, 0·68-1·04; ptrend =0·0038), and total mortality (0·81, 0·68-0·96; ptrend<0·0001). The HR for total mortality was lowest for three to four servings per day (0·78, 95% CI 0·69-0·88) compared with the reference group, with no further apparent decrease in HR with higher consumption. When examined separately, fruit intake was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and total mortality, while legume intake was inversely associated with non-cardiovascular death and total mortality (in fully adjusted models). For vegetables, raw vegetable intake was strongly associated with a lower risk of total mortality, whereas cooked vegetable intake showed a modest benefit against mortality. INTERPRETATION Higher fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption was associated with a lower risk of non-cardiovascular, and total mortality. Benefits appear to be maximum for both non-cardiovascular mortality and total mortality at three to four servings per day (equivalent to 375-500 g/day). FUNDING Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
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Joseph P, Yusuf S, Lee SF, Ibrahim Q, Teo K, Rangarajan S, Gupta R, Rosengren A, Lear SA, Avezum A, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Gulec S, Yusufali A, Chifamba J, Lanas F, Kumar R, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mony P, Kruger A, Liu X, Guo B, Zhao W, Yang Y, Pillai R, Diaz R, Krishnapillai A, Iqbal R, Yusuf R, Szuba A, Anand SS. Prognostic validation of a non-laboratory and a laboratory based cardiovascular disease risk score in multiple regions of the world. Heart 2017; 104:581-587. [PMID: 29066611 PMCID: PMC5861396 DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2017-311609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2017] [Revised: 08/22/2017] [Accepted: 08/24/2017] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the performance of the non-laboratory INTERHEART risk score (NL-IHRS) to predict incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across seven major geographic regions of the world. The secondary objective was to evaluate the performance of the fasting cholesterol-based IHRS (FC-IHRS). Methods Using measures of discrimination and calibration, we tested the performance of the NL-IHRS (n=100 475) and FC-IHRS (n=107 863) for predicting incident CVD in a community-based, prospective study across seven geographic regions: South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Europe/North America, South America and Africa. CVD was defined as the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure or coronary revascularisation. Results Mean age of the study population was 50.53 (SD 9.79) years and mean follow-up was 4.89 (SD 2.24) years. The NL-IHRS had moderate to good discrimination for incident CVD across geographic regions (concordance statistic (C-statistic) ranging from 0.64 to 0.74), although recalibration was necessary in all regions, which improved its performance in the overall cohort (increase in C-statistic from 0.69 to 0.72, p<0.001). Regional recalibration was also necessary for the FC-IHRS, which also improved its overall discrimination (increase in C-statistic from 0.71 to 0.74, p<0.001). In 85 078 participants with complete data for both scores, discrimination was only modestly better with the FC-IHRS compared with the NL-IHRS (0.74 vs 0.73, p<0.001). Conclusions External validations of the NL-IHRS and FC-IHRS suggest that regionally recalibrated versions of both can be useful for estimating CVD risk across a diverse range of community-based populations. CVD prediction using a non-laboratory score can provide similar accuracy to laboratory-based methods.
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Bahonar A, Khosravi A, Khorvash F, Maracy M, Oveisgharan S, Mohammadifard N, Saadatnia M, Nouri F, Sarrafzadegan N. Ten-year trend in stroke incidence and its subtypes in Isfahan, Iran during 2003-2013. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NEUROLOGY 2017; 16:201-209. [PMID: 29736226 PMCID: PMC5937006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Background: As there was no evidence of long-term studies on stroke trend, stroke subtypes and its relationships to stroke risk factors and demographic characteristics in Iran, we aimed to evaluate the 10-year trend of stroke incidence and stroke subtypes in Isfahan, Iran. Methods: In a hospital-based retrospective study, 24186 cases with the first-ever stroke were analyzed. We assessed the incidence trend of annual stroke and its subtypes [ischemic stroke (IS) subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH)] during the years 2003 to 2013 by sex, and studied the association of demographic and major stroke risk factors with incidence and mortality rate of stroke. Results: The mean age was 69.46 ± 14.87 years, and 49.29% of patients were women. IS was the most frequent type among all the types of strokes (76.18%). Stroke and its subtypes had decreasing incidence trend during the study period, except for SAH that increased. In addition, stroke and its subtypes had decreasing mortality trend during the study period, except for SAH that did not change anymore. Stroke mortality and incidence rates were lower in urban inhabitants compared to residents of rural areas [odds ratio (OR) = 0.763, P < 0.001]. Conclusion: Despite the relatively high incidence of stroke over the study period, the incidence rate of stroke, especially ICH subtype, had a decreasing trend over the last decade in Isfahan. However, given the current young population in Iran, we can expect that the incidence of stroke would have an escalating trend in future.
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