GEN-O-MA project: an Italian network studying clinical course and pathogenic pathways of moyamoya disease-study protocol and preliminary results

BACKGROUND

GENetics of mOyaMoyA (GEN-O-MA) project is a multicenter observational study implemented in Italy aimed at creating a network of centers involved in moyamoya angiopathy (MA) care and research and at collecting a large series and bio-repository of MA patients, finally aimed at describing the disease phenotype and clinical course as well as at identifying biological or cellular markers for disease progression. The present paper resumes the most important study methodological issues and preliminary results.

METHODS

Nineteen centers are participating to the study. Patients with both bilateral and unilateral radiologically defined MA are included in the study. For each patient, detailed demographic and clinical as well as neuroimaging data are being collected. When available, biological samples (blood, DNA, CSF, middle cerebral artery samples) are being also collected for biological and cellular studies.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight patients (age of onset mean ± SD 35.5 ± 19.6 years; 68.4% females) have been collected so far. 65.3% of patients presented ischemic (50%) and haemorrhagic (15.3%) stroke. A higher female predominance concomitantly with a similar age of onset and clinical features to what was reported in previous studies on Western patients has been confirmed.

CONCLUSION

An accurate and detailed clinical and neuroimaging classification represents the best strategy to provide the characterization of the disease phenotype and clinical course. The collection of a large number of biological samples will permit the identification of biological markers and genetic factors associated with the disease susceptibility in Italy.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Availability of secondary prevention services after stroke in Europe: An ESO/SAFE survey of national scientific societies and stroke experts

Background

Recurrent stroke is associated with increased disability and cognitive impairment, but the availability of secondary prevention measures after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke in Europe is uncertain. This limits prioritisation of investment and development of national stroke strategies.

Methods

National stroke representatives throughout Europe were surveyed. Consensus panels reported national data if available, or else expert opinion, estimating the availability of each intervention by quintiles of patients, dichotomised for analysis at 60%. Countries were classified into tertiles of gross domestic product per capita.

Results

Of 50 countries, 46 responded; 14/45 (31%) had national stroke registries and 25/46 (54.3%) had national stroke strategies incorporating secondary prevention. Respondents reported that the majority of TIA patients were assessed by specialist services within 48 hours in 74.4% of countries, but in nine countries more than 20% of patients were seen after more than seven days and usually assessed by non-specialists (7/46 countries). Eighty percent of countries deferred blood pressure assessment to primary care, whilst lifestyle management programmes were commonly available in only 46% of countries. Although basic interventions were widely available, interventions frequently not available to more than 60% of patients included: ambulatory cardiac monitoring (40% countries); prescription (26%) and continuation (46%) of statins; blood pressure control at follow-up (44%); carotid endarterectomy within one month (15%); face-to-face follow-up in hospital (33%); direct oral anticoagulants (21%). Gross domestic product per capita and reimbursement of interventions were the commonest predictors of availability of interventions.

Conclusions

Provision of secondary prevention varied, with gaps in care prevalent throughout Europe, particularly in lower income countries.

Action Plan for Stroke in Europe 2018-2030

Two previous pan-European consensus meetings, the 1995 and 2006 Helsingborg meetings, were convened to review the scientific evidence and the state of current services to identify priorities for research and development and to set targets for the development of stroke care for the decade to follow. Adhering to the same format, the European Stroke Organisation (ESO) prepared a European Stroke Action Plan (ESAP) for the years 2018 to 2030, in cooperation with the Stroke Alliance for Europe (SAFE). The ESAP included seven domains: primary prevention, organisation of stroke services, management of acute stroke, secondary prevention, rehabilitation, evaluation of stroke outcome and quality assessment and life after stroke. Research priorities for translational stroke research were also identified. Documents were prepared by a working group and were open to public comments. The final document was prepared after a workshop in Munich on 21–23 March 2018. Four overarching targets for 2030 were identified: (1) to reduce the absolute number of strokes in Europe by 10%, (2) to treat 90% or more of all patients with stroke in Europe in a dedicated stroke unit as the first level of care, (3) to have national plans for stroke encompassing the entire chain of care, (4) to fully implement national strategies for multisector public health interventions. Overall, 30 targets and 72 research priorities were identified for the seven domains. The ESAP provides a basic road map and sets targets for the implementation of evidence-based preventive actions and stroke services to 2030.

Standards of practice in acute ischemic stroke intervention: International recommendations

This article was first published in JNIS. Cite this article as: Pierot L, Jayaraman MV, Szikora I, et al. Standards of practice in acute ischemic stroke intervention: international recommendations. Journal of NeuroInterventional Surgery. Published Online First: 28 August 2018. doi: 10.1136/neurintsurg-2018-014287.

Fourth European stroke science workshop

Lake Eibsee, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 16 to 18 November, 2017: The European Stroke Organisation convened >120 stroke experts from 21 countries to discuss latest results and hot topics in clinical, translational and basic stroke research. Since its inception in 2011, the European Stroke Science Workshop has become a cornerstone of European Stroke Organisation's academic activities and a major highlight for researchers in the field. Participants include stroke researchers at all career stages and with different backgrounds, who convene for plenary lectures and discussions. The workshop was organised in seven scientific sessions focusing on the following topics: (1) acute stroke treatment and endovascular therapy; (2) small vessel disease; (3) opportunities for stroke research in the omics era; (4) vascular cognitive impairment; (5) intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage; (6) alternative treatment concepts and (7) neural circuits, recovery and rehabilitation. All sessions started with a keynote lecture providing an overview on current developments, followed by focused talks on a timely topic with the most recent findings, including unpublished data. In the following, we summarise the key contents of the meeting. The program is provided in the online only Data Supplement. The workshop started with a key note lecture on how to improve the efficiency of clinical trial endpoints in stroke, which was delivered by Craig Anderson (Sydney, Australia) and set the scene for the following discussions.

Clinical skills or high-tech MR in TIA patients: what makes the difference?

BACKGROUND

TIA has been recently re-defined as "a transient episode of neurological dysfunction caused by ischemia without acute infarction." The gold standard to exclude the presence of ischemic lesions is acute brain MR. However, in many clinical settings, the 24/7 availability of MR is, at best, irregular. Being so, an appropriate adoption of this definition, which excludes the presence of ischemic lesions, can only be equally irregular. Our aim was to retrospectively compare the long-term outcomes of patients receiving acute care for TIA diagnosed with the new, tissue-based definition, and those diagnosed only on symptom duration.

METHODS

We analyzed 480 patients (227 males) from two centers: group 1 consisted of 162 patients with time-defined TIA; group 2 of 315 patients with negative brain DW-MRI (tissue-based TIAs). We considered the combined recurrence of TIA, stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina as endpoints.

RESULTS

Both groups had a similar mean follow-up duration (38.3 months vs. 37.2 months) and were comparable for vascular risk factors, clinical features, and etiology. The combined endpoint rates were 11.1% for both groups, and the rates for segregate endpoints did not differ between groups. Recurrence was correlated with atrial fibrillation, diabetes, and high diastolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term outcomes of TIA patients did not differ according to the definitions applied. Therein suggesting that, even without acute MRI results, a clinical diagnosis seemed to be enough to assure prompt medical treatment and similar long-term outcomes.

Determinants and outcome of multiple and early recurrent cervical artery dissections

Objective

To assess putative risk factors and outcome of multiple and early recurrent cervical artery dissection (CeAD).

Methods

We combined data from 2 multicenter cohorts and compared patients with multiple CeAD at initial diagnosis, early recurrent CeAD within 3 to 6 months, and single nonrecurrent CeAD. Putative risk factors, clinical characteristics, functional outcome, and risk of recurrent ischemic events were assessed.

Results

Of 1,958 patients with CeAD (mean ± SD age 44.3 ± 10 years, 43.9% women), 1,588 (81.1%) had single nonrecurrent CeAD, 340 (17.4%) had multiple CeAD, and 30 (1.5%) presented with single CeAD at admission and had early recurrent CeAD. Patients with multiple or early recurrent CeAD did not significantly differ with respect to putative risk factors, clinical presentation, and outcome. In multivariable analyses, patients with multiple or early recurrent CeAD more often had recent infection (odds ratio [OR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29–2.53), vertebral artery dissection (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.34–2.46), family history of stroke (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.06–2.25), cervical pain (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.01–1.84), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.01–8.04) at initial presentation compared to patients with single nonrecurrent CeAD. Patients with multiple or early recurrent CeAD also had a higher incidence of cerebral ischemia (hazard ratio 2.77, 95% CI 1.49–5.14) at 3 to 6 months but no difference in functional outcome compared to patients with single nonrecurrent CeAD.

Conclusion

Patients with multiple and early recurrent CeAD share similar risk factors, clinical characteristics, and functional outcome. Compared to patients with single nonrecurrent CeAD, they are more likely to have recurrent cerebral ischemia at 3 to 6 months, possibly reflecting an underlying transient vasculopathy.

Access to and delivery of acute ischaemic stroke treatments: A survey of national scientific societies and stroke experts in 44 European countries

Introduction

Acute stroke unit care, intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment significantly improve the outcome for patients with ischaemic stroke, but data on access and delivery throughout Europe are lacking. We assessed best available data on access and delivery of acute stroke unit care, intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment throughout Europe.

Methods

A survey, drafted by stroke professionals (ESO, ESMINT, EAN) and a patient organisation (SAFE), was sent to national stroke societies and experts in 51 European countries (World Health Organization definition) requesting experts to provide national data on stroke unit, intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment rates. We compared both pooled and individual national data per one million inhabitants and per 1000 annual incident ischaemic strokes with highest country rates. Population estimates were based on United Nations data, stroke incidences on the Global Burden of Disease Report.

Results

We obtained data from 44 European countries. The estimated mean number of stroke units was 2.9 per million inhabitants (95% CI 2.3-3.6) and 1.5 per 1000 annual incident strokes (95% CI 1.1-1.9), highest country rates were 9.2 and 5.8. Intravenous thrombolysis was provided in 42/44 countries. The estimated mean annual number of intravenous thrombolysis was 142.0 per million inhabitants (95% CI 107.4-176.7) and 72.7 per 1000 annual incident strokes (95% CI 54.2-91.2), highest country rates were 412.2 and 205.5. Endovascular treatment was provided in 40/44 countries. The estimated mean annual number of endovascular treatments was 37.1 per million inhabitants (95% CI 26.7-47.5) and 19.3 per 1000 annual incident strokes (95% CI 13.5-25.1), highest country rates were 111.5 and 55.9. Overall, 7.3% of incident ischaemic stroke patients received intravenous thrombolysis (95% CI 5.4-9.1) and 1.9% received endovascular treatment (95% CI 1.3-2.5), highest country rates were 20.6% and 5.6%.

Conclusion

We observed major inequalities in acute stroke treatment between and within 44 European countries. Our data will assist decision makers implementing tailored stroke care programmes for reducing stroke-related morbidity and mortality in Europe.

HeadPoST

Objective

To critique the Head Positioning in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) study methods in relation to preceding research findings in an aim to clarify the potential efficacy of positioning interventions and direction for future research.

Methods

Head positioning research prior to the conduct of HeadPoST was reviewed by a team of international stroke experts, and methods and findings were compared to HeadPoST.

Results

Methods used to select HeadPoST patients differ substantially from those used in original head positioning studies, in particular enrollment of all types of stroke. HeadPoST enrolled primarily minor strokes (median NIH Stroke Scale 4, interquartile range [IQR] 2–8) without vascular imaging confirmation of subtype; elapsed time from stroke symptom onset to the initiation of intervention was late (median 14 hours, IQR 5–35), and time from hospital admission to enrollment was delayed (median 7 hours, IQR 2–26). Intervention integrity was not reported, including ability to achieve/maintain 30° head elevation in beds lacking head elevation capabilities. Deterioration or improvement associated with the intervention is unknown as serial assessments were not completed, and the trial's 3-month outcome was powered using unrelated study data.

Conclusions

The design of HeadPoST was suboptimal to measure differences produced by the intervention. Future head positioning trials in discrete patient cohorts (in particular, large vessel occlusion) with endpoints supported by pilot work are required to understand the efficacy of this simple yet potentially important intervention.

Route of Feeding as a Proxy for Dysphagia After Stroke and the Effect of Transdermal Glyceryl Trinitrate: Data from the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke Randomised Controlled Trial

Post-stroke dysphagia is common, associated with poor outcome and often requires non-oral feeding/fluids. The relationship between route of feeding and outcome, as well as treatment with glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), was studied prospectively. The Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial assessed transdermal GTN (5 mg versus none for 7 days) in 4011 patients with acute stroke and high blood pressure. Feeding route (oral = normal or soft diet; non-oral = nasogastric tube, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube, parenteral fluids, no fluids) was assessed at baseline and day 7. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) measured at day 90. At baseline, 1331 (33.2%) patients had non-oral feeding, were older, had more severe stroke and more were female, than 2680 (66.8%) patients with oral feeding. By day 7, 756 patients had improved from non-oral to oral feeding, and 119 had deteriorated. Non-oral feeding at baseline was associated with more impairment at day 7 (Scandinavian Stroke Scale 29.0 versus 43.7; 2p < 0.001), and worse mRS (4.0 versus 2.7; 2p < 0.001) and death (23.6 versus 6.8%; 2p = 0.014) at day 90. Although GTN did not modify route of feeding overall, randomisation ≤6 h of stroke was associated with a move to more oral feeding at day 7 (odds ratio = 0.61, 95% confidence intervals 0.38, 0.98; 2p = 0.040). As a proxy for dysphagia, non-oral feeding is present in 33% of patients with acute stroke and associated with more impairment, dependency and death. GTN moved feeding route towards oral intake if given very early after stroke. Clinical Trial Registration Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN99414122.

Cancer-associated ischemic stroke: A retrospective multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between stroke and cancer is well-known but insufficiently investigated. Aim of this multicentre retrospective cohort study was to estimate the prevalence of cancer-associated ischemic stroke, describe clinical outcomes in patients with cancer-associated ischemic stroke and investigate independent factors associated with active cancer.

METHODS

Consecutive adult patients admitted for acute ischemic stroke were included. Included patients were admitted in the Stroke Unit of the Hospital of Perugia, Italy, from March 2005 to March 2015, and in a medical unit of the Hospital of Varese, Italy, from January 2010 till December 2011. Clinical and laboratory data of patients with and without active cancer were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent factors associated with active cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 2209 patients admitted with acute ischemic stroke were included with a median hospital stay of 9 days (interquartile range 5.75-14). Mean age was 72.7 years (standard deviation +/- 13); 55% patients were male and 4.4% had active cancer. Factors significantly associated with the presence of active cancer were age > 65 years (odds ratio [OR] 3.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-6.81), occurrence of venous thromboembolism [VTE] (OR 2.84; 95% CI 1.12-7.19), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level < 70 mg/dL (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.06-3.47), cryptogenic stroke subtype (OR 1.93; 95% CI 1.22-3.04). Overall mortality rate during hospital stay was greater in patients with active cancer (21.5% vs. 10% P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, occurrence of VTE, low LDL level, and cryptogenic stroke subtype, are independently associated with active cancer. Overall, our findings suggest a possible prevalent role of hypercoagulability in the pathogenesis of cancer-associated ischemic stroke.

Abstract 156: Intravenous Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Golden Hour: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction: Data are scarce regarding the outcomes of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) within 60 min from symptom onset, termed the “golden hour” (GH) window. We present systematic review and meta-analysis of outcomes between AIS patients treated within (+) and outside (-) the GH.

Methods: We performed a systematic review in MEDLINE and SCOPUS databases for observational studies providing unadjusted rates or adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the following outcomes: symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), mortality and favourable functional outcome (FFO), defined as mRS-scores of 0-1.

Results: We identified 3 eligible studies (range of median NIHSS-scores: 10-11 points), including a total of 72,662 IVT-treated patients (1.5% treated within the GH. GH(+) patients had higher FFO rates (42%, 95%CI:35%-48%) compared to GH(-) patients (31%, 95%CI:30%-31%). In adjusted analyses, IVT within the GH was associated with a two-fold increase in the odds of FFO (OR=2.02, 95%CI: 1.55-2.63, p<0.001) without heterogeneity across studies (I 2 =0, p for Cochran Q=0.93; Figure). No significant differences on the risk of both sICH (OR=0.77, 95%CI: 0.53-1.13, p=0.180; I 2 =0, p for Cochran Q=0.63) and mortality (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.29-1.28, p=0.190; I 2 =72, p for Cochran Q=0.03) were documented between the two groups in adjusted analyses.

Conclusions: AIS treated within the GH have substantially higher odds of FFO compared to IVT administered later during conventional time window independent of potential confounders. Improvement of care systems to achieve the earliest onset to treatment times should remain the goal of the front line stroke treatment.

Abstract 83: Successful Recanalization With Intravenous Thrombolysis Preceding Mechanical Thrombectomy in Large Vessel Occlusions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction: Although current guidelines advocate pretreatment with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in all eligible patients with emergent large vessel occlusion (ELVO) prior to mechanical thrombectomy (MT), there are observational data questioning the efficacy of IVT pretreatment in patients with ELVO. One of the main arguments in favour of IVT pretreatment is the potential for tPA-induced successful recanalization (SR) before the onset of endovascular procedure averting the need for MT.

Methods: We performed a systematic review in MEDLINE and SCOPUS databases for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational cohorts providing rates of SR with IVT in patients with ELVO before the initiation of MT. We also performed subgroup analyses according to study type (RCTs or observational) and according to the inclusion per-protocol of patients with tandem (intracranial/extracranial) occlusions.

Results: We identified 10 eligible studies (7 RCTs & 3 observational cohorts), including 1227 ELVO patients (median NIHSS score: 17). SR following IVT and before MT was documented in 9% (95%CI: 5%-14%; I 2 =85.4%) of ELVO patients, with no significant (p=0.263) differences among RCTs and observational cohorts (Figure). Higher tPA-induced SR rates were identified in studies reporting exclusion of patients with tandem occlusions compared to the rest (15%, 95%CI: 6%-26% vs 5%, 95%CI: 2%-9%; p for subgroup difference=0.052).

Conclusions: Pretreatment with IVT in ELVO patients eligible for MT results in SR in almost one out of ten cases, negating the need for additional endovascular reperfusion. Tandem occlusions appear to be the least responsive to IVT pretreatment.

Successful Reperfusion With Intravenous Thrombolysis Preceding Mechanical Thrombectomy in Large-Vessel Occlusions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Although current guidelines advocate pretreatment with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in all eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion before mechanical thrombectomy, there are observational data questioning the efficacy of this approach. One of the main arguments in favor of IVT pretreatment is the potential for tissue-type plasminogen activator-induced successful reperfusion (SR) before the onset of endovascular procedure.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials and observational cohorts providing rates of SR with IVT in patients with large-vessel occlusion before the initiation of mechanical thrombectomy. We also performed subgroup analyses according to study type (randomized controlled clinical trials versus observational) and according to the inclusion per protocol of patients with tandem (intracranial/extracranial) occlusions.

RESULTS

We identified 13 eligible studies (7 randomized controlled clinical trials and 6 observational cohorts), including 1561 patients with acute ischemic stroke (median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 17) with large-vessel occlusion. SR following IVT and before mechanical thrombectomy was documented in 11% (95% confidence interval, 7%-16%), with no difference among cohorts derived from randomized controlled clinical trials and observational studies. There was significant heterogeneity across included studies both in the overall analysis and among subgroups (I²>84%; P for Cochran Q, <0.001). Higher tissue-type plasminogen activator-induced SR rates were documented in studies reporting the exclusion of tandem occlusions (17%; 95% confidence interval, 11%-23%) compared with the rest (7%; 95% confidence interval, 4%-11%; P for subgroup differences, 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Pretreatment with systemic thrombolysis in patients with large-vessel occlusion eligible for mechanical thrombectomy results in SR in 1 of 10 cases, negating the need for additional endovascular reperfusion. Tandem occlusions seem to be the least responsive to IVT pretreatment.

Early Recurrence and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Non-Vitamin-K Oral Anticoagulants (RAF-NOACs) Study

BACKGROUND

The optimal timing to administer non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation is unclear. This prospective observational multicenter study evaluated the rates of early recurrence and major bleeding (within 90 days) and their timing in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation who received NOACs for secondary prevention.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Recurrence was defined as the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and symptomatic systemic embolism, and major bleeding was defined as symptomatic cerebral and major extracranial bleeding. For the analysis, 1127 patients were eligible: 381 (33.8%) were treated with dabigatran, 366 (32.5%) with rivaroxaban, and 380 (33.7%) with apixaban. Patients who received dabigatran were younger and had lower admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and less commonly had a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score >4 and less reduced renal function. Thirty-two patients (2.8%) had early recurrence, and 27 (2.4%) had major bleeding. The rates of early recurrence and major bleeding were, respectively, 1.8% and 0.5% in patients receiving dabigatran, 1.6% and 2.5% in those receiving rivaroxaban, and 4.0% and 2.9% in those receiving apixaban. Patients who initiated NOACs within 2 days after acute stroke had a composite rate of recurrence and major bleeding of 12.4%; composite rates were 2.1% for those who initiated NOACs between 3 and 14 days and 9.1% for those who initiated >14 days after acute stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, treatment with NOACs was associated with a combined 5% rate of ischemic embolic recurrence and severe bleeding within 90 days.

Timing of anticoagulation therapy in patients with acute ischaemic stroke and atrial fibrillation

In patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation (AF), the risk of early recurrence has been reported to range between 0.1% and 1.3% per day. Anticoagulants are the most effective therapy for the prevention of recurrent ischaemic stroke in these patients, but randomised clinical trials have failed to produce any evidence supporting the administration of heparin within 48 hours from stroke onset as it has been associated with a non-significant reduction in the recurrence of ischaemic stroke, no substantial reduction in death and disability, and an increase in intracranial bleeding. As early haemorrhagic transformation is a major concern in the acute phase of stroke patients with AF, determining the optimal time to start anticoagulant therapy is essential. This review which focuses on the epidemiology of recurrent ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic transformation in patients with acute ischaemic stroke and AF, proposes a model for decision making on optimal timing for initiating anticoagulation, based on currently available evidence.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.