Abstract TP396: Accuracy of Administrative Hospital, Emergency Department and Death Records

Background: Hospital, emergency presentation and death databases are frequently used to research outcomes after stroke. The reliability of diagnostic coding for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in these administrative data remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the reliability of these data in Australia using an existing clinical trial cohort.

Methods: Patients with stroke/TIA who participated in the Shared Team Approach between Nurses and Doctors For Improved Risk factor Management (STAND FIRM) trial (n = 563, recruited from 4 hospitals within Victoria). We used diagnostic ICD-10-AM coded data from hospital, emergency department and death databases within 2 years after stroke/TIA. Medical records for these potential CVD-related events were reviewed by two independent stroke specialists and adjudicated according to strict criteria. We then estimated sensitivity and specificity of using either primary or both primary and secondary diagnoses fields (obtained for all adjudicated records), against the events adjudicated by the specialists (gold standard). False positives were CVD-events defined by ICD-10-AM diagnostic codes that were adjudicated as not being a CVD-event. False negatives were true CVD-events that were misclassified as not being CVD-related when using ICD-10-AM codes.

Results: We identified 261 events for medical review. After adjudication, 65 were classified as CVD-events (cases) and 196 were not CVD-events. Using both primary and secondary diagnoses, 55 true positives were correctly identified among the cases (sensitivity = 84.6%) and 129 true negatives among the non-cases (specificity = 65.8%). Using only primary diagnoses, 48 true positives were identified (sensitivity = 73.9%) and 171 true negatives (specificity = 87.2%). Using both primary and secondary diagnoses had an increased sensitivity, but decreased specificity (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70, 0.81) when compared with using only primary diagnoses (AUC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75, 0.86; p = 0.028).

Conclusion: Both primary and secondary diagnoses should be used to identify true CVD-events and minimise misclassifying these in administrative databases.

Stroke Severity Versus Dysphagia Screen as Driver for Post-stroke Pneumonia

Background and Purpose: Post-stroke pneumonia is a feared complication of stroke as it is associated with greater mortality and disability than in those without pneumonia. Patients are often kept “Nil By Mouth” (NBM) after stroke until after receiving a screen for dysphagia and declared safe to resume oral intake. We aimed to assess the proportional contribution of stroke severity and dysphagia screen to pneumonia by borrowing idea from coalition game theory on fair distribution of marginal profit (Shapley value).

Method: Retrospective study of admissions to the stroke unit at Monash Medical Center in 2015. Seventy-five percent of data were partitioned into training set and the remainder (25%) into validation set. Variables associated with pneumonia (p < 0.1) were entered into Shapley value regression and conditional decision tree analysis.

Results: In 2015, there were 797 admissions and 617 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (age 69.9 ± 16.2, male = 55.0%, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale/NIHSS 8.1 ± 7.9). The frequency of pneumonia was 6.6% (41/617). In univariable analyses NIHSS, time to dysphagia screen, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and age were significantly associated with pneumonia but not weekend admission. Shapley value regression showed that the largest contributor to the model was stroke severity (72.8%) followed by CCI (16.2%), dysphagia screen (3.8%), and age (7.2%). Decision tree analysis yielded an NIHSS threshold of 14 for classifying people with (27% of 75 patients) and without pneumonia (2.5% of 308 patients). The area under the ROC curve for training data was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.91) with no detectable difference between the training and test data (p = 0.4). Results were similar when dysphagia was exchanged for the variable dysphagia screen.

Conclusion: Stroke severity status, and not dysphagia or dysphagia screening contributed to the decision tree model of post stroke pneumonia. We cannot exclude the chance that using dysphagia screen in this cohort had minimized the impact of dysphagia on development of pneumonia.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Task-shifting for cardiovascular risk factor management: lessons from the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases

Task-shifting to non-physician health workers (NPHWs) has been an effective model for managing infectious diseases and improving maternal and child health. There is inadequate evidence to show the effectiveness of NPHWs to manage cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In 2012, the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases funded eight studies which focused on task-shifting to NPHWs for the management of hypertension. We report the lessons learnt from the field. From each of the studies, we obtained information on the types of tasks shifted, the professional level from which the task was shifted, the training provided and the challenges faced. Additionally, we collected more granular data on ‘lessons learnt ’ throughout the implementation process and ‘design to implementation’ changes that emerged in each project. The tasks shifted to NPHWs included screening of individuals, referral to physicians for diagnosis and management, patient education for lifestyle improvement, follow-up and reminders for medication adherence and appointments. In four studies, tasks were shifted from physicians to NPHWs and in four studies tasks were shared between two different levels of NPHWs. Training programmes ranged between 3 and 7 days with regular refresher training. Two studies used clinical decision support tools and mobile health components. Challenges faced included system level barriers such as inability to prescribe medicines, varying skill sets of NPHWs, high workload and staff turnover. With the acute shortage of the health workforce in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), achieving better health outcomes for the prevention and control of CVD is a major challenge. Task-shifting or sharing provides a practical model for the management of CVD in LMICs.

Understanding the potential for yoga and tai chi interventions to moderate risk factors for stroke – a scoping review

Following an initial stroke, approximately two in five people will experience another stroke within 10 years. Recurrent strokes are often more severe and fatal. Mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) that use movement to focus attention, such as yoga and tai chi, may offer a lifestyle strategy in addition to standard rehabilitation options, for moderating risk factors for stroke. We conducted a scoping review to explore the potential for yoga or tai chi to moderate modifiable risk factors for stroke. 26 papers between 1985 and 2017 were identified using online and gray literature databases. Overall, yoga or tai chi may reduce hypertension (up to 16/9 mmHg), and to a lesser extent some lipid and blood sugar levels. Study designs were heterogeneous. Further research on mediating pathways of MBIs, such as yoga or tai chi, on modifiable risk factors for stroke is warranted.

Prevention of stroke: a global perspective

Along with the rising global burden of disability attributed to stroke, costs of stroke care are rising, providing the impetus to direct our research focus towards effective measures of stroke prevention. In this Series paper, we discuss strategies for reducing the risk of the emergence of disease (primordial prevention), preventing the onset of disease (primary prevention), and preventing the recurrence of disease (secondary prevention). Our focus includes global strategies and campaigns, and measurements of the effectiveness of worldwide preventive interventions, with an emphasis on low-income and middle-income countries. Our findings reveal that effective tobacco control, adequate nutrition, and development of healthy cities are important strategies for primordial prevention, whereas polypill strategies, use of mobile technology (mHealth), along with salt reduction and other dietary interventions, are effective in the primary prevention of stroke. An effective collaboration between various health-care sectors, government policies, and campaigns can successfully implement secondary prevention strategies, through surveillance and registries, such as the WHO's non-communicable diseases programmes, across high-income and low-income countries.

Neurobehavioral disability in stroke patients during subacute inpatient rehabilitation: prevalence and biopsychosocial associations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

There are scarce data on post-stroke neurobehavioral disability (NBD). The aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of NBD in a subacute inpatient stroke population and examine potential associations with demographic, stroke-related, functional and psychosocial variables.

METHODS

82 survivors of stroke were consecutively recruited during their inpatient rehabilitation admission. Nursing staff rated NBD in patients using the St Andrews -Swansea Neurobehavioral Outcome Scale (SASNOS). Measures of patient functional independence (FIM), cognition (MoCA), and mood symptoms (HADS) were collected in addition to nursing reports of whether observed NBD negatively impacted on the patient or those around them.

RESULTS

NBD relating to interpersonal relationships (44.4% of participants) and cognition (52.4%) were highly prevalent within the sample while NBD relating to inhibition (1.2%), aggression (3.6%), and communication (2.5%) were relatively rare. Presence of NBD was significantly associated with reduced functional independence (rs=0.39, p < 0.01) and associated with trends in cognitive impairment (rs=0.29, p = 0.03), increased anxiety (rs=-0.43, p = 0.02) and depressive symptoms (rs=-0.43, p = 0.02). Presence of NBD was significantly correlated with negative impact to the patient and those around them across all SASNOS domains (rs range 0.42 - 0.45, all p ≤ 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

NBD is common within a subacute stroke inpatient population, particularly interpersonal and cognitive difficulties and preliminary analyses indicate associations with reduced functional ability, cognition and mood. There is a need to provide education and support to clinicians to facilitate routine assessment and management of NBD following stroke.

Long-term disability after stroke in Iran: Evidence from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study

Background

Accurate information about disability rate after stroke remains largely unclear in many countries. Population-based studies are necessary to estimate the rate and determinants of disability after stroke.

Methods

Patients were recruited from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study and followed for five years after their index event. Disability was measured using the modified Rankin scale and functional dependency was measured using the Barthel index.

Results

Among 684 patients registered in this study, 624 were first-ever strokes. In total, 69.0% (n = 409) of patients either died or remained disabled at five-year follow-up. Among the first-ever stroke survivors, 18.5% (n = 69) at one year and 15.9% (n = 31) at five years required major assistance in their daily activities. Patients with a history of stroke (before the study period) compared with first-ever strokes were more likely to be disabled at one year (modified Rankin scale>2 in 40.0% vs. 19.1%; P < 0.001). Advanced age, severity of stroke at the time of admission, diabetes mellitus, and educational level (<12 years) were independently associated with greater disability and functional dependency.

Conclusion

We found that significant disability and functional dependency after stroke in Northeast Iran were largely attributable to the effects of stroke severity and prior dependency.

Development of an electronic health message system to support recovery after stroke: Inspiring Virtual Enabled Resources following Vascular Events (iVERVE)

PURPOSE

Worldwide, stroke is a leading cause of disease burden. Many survivors have unmet needs after discharge from hospital. Electronic communication technology to support post-discharge care has not been used for patients with stroke. In this paper, we describe the development of a novel electronic messaging system designed for survivors of stroke to support their goals of recovery and secondary prevention after hospital discharge.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

This was a formative evaluation study. The design was informed by a literature search, existing data from survivors of stroke, and behavior change theories. We established two working groups; one for developing the electronic infrastructure and the other (comprising researchers, clinical experts and consumer representatives) for establishing the patient-centered program. Following agreement on the categories for the goal-setting menu, we drafted relevant messages to support and educate patients. These messages were then independently reviewed by multiple topic experts. Concurrently, we established an online database to capture participant characteristics and then integrated this database with a purpose-built messaging system. We conducted alpha testing of the approach using the first 60 messages.

RESULTS

The initial goal-setting menu comprised 26 subcategories. Following expert review, another 8 goal subcategories were added to the secondary prevention category: managing cholesterol; smoking; physical activity; alcohol consumption; weight management; medication management; access to health professionals, and self-care. Initially, 455 health messages were created by members of working group 2. Following refinement and mapping to different goals by the project team, 980 health messages across the health goals and 69 general motivational messages were formulated. Seventeen independent reviewers assessed the messages and suggested adding 73 messages and removing 16 (2%). Overall, 1,233 messages (18 administrative, 69 general motivation and 1,146 health-related) were created.

CONCLUSION

This novel electronic self-management support system is ready to be pilot tested in a randomized controlled trial in patients with stroke.

Determining the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a stroke instructional and educational DVD in a multinational context: a randomized controlled pilot study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial of an instructional and educational stroke DVD and determine the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of this intervention in a multinational context.

DESIGN

Non-funded, pilot randomized controlled trial of intervention versus usual care.

SETTING

International, multicentre, community-based.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-living adults up to three years post stroke with moderate to severe disability and their nominated informal caregivers.

INTERVENTIONS

Intervention patients viewed and practised rehabilitation techniques demonstrated in the DVD over six weeks.

MAIN MEASURES

Trial feasibility by number of active recruitment sites, recruitment efficiency, randomization and follow-up. Intervention feasibility by patient and caregiver impressions. Preliminary efficacy by the quality of life - 5-level EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) health status measure, General Health Questionnaire and Centre for Epidemiological Studies-Depression at two months.

RESULTS

In total, 14 recruitment sites were established across eight countries. Recruitment was achieved at nine (64%) sites. Over 16 months, 66 participants were recruited (mean (SD) age = 63.5 (12.47) years) and randomized to intervention ( n = 34) and control ( n = 32) groups. In total, 54 (82%) completed a follow-up assessment. Patient and/or caregiver comments about the benefits and barriers to accessing the intervention were mixed. There were no significant between-group differences in outcomes at two months ( P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Conducting a multinational trial of a stroke DVD requires full funding. The intervention was acceptable to some patients and their caregivers, yet a generalized education approach did not fully meet their needs and/or expectations. A more individualized method may be required to meet peoples' changing needs during stroke recovery.

Excess stroke incidence in young Aboriginal people in South Australia: Pooled results from two population-based studies

Background Retrospective data indicate increased stroke incidence in Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, possibly with poorer outcomes. We present the first prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Indigenous Australians. Methods We pooled data from ASCEND and SEARCH, two prospective "ideal" South Australian stroke incidence studies, ASCEND conducted in urban Northwestern Adelaide (2009-2010) and SEARCH in five South Australian rural centers (2009-2011). We calculated age-standardized incidence for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people. Results The study population comprised 261,403 inhabitants. Among 432 first-ever strokes, 13 were in Aboriginal people (median age 51 vs. 78 years for non-Aboriginal people, p < 0.001). Age-standardized stroke incidence per 100,000 in Aboriginal patients (116, 95% CI: 95-137) was nearly two-fold that of non-Aboriginal patients (67, 95% CI: 51-84). Age-stratified excess incidence in Aboriginal people was restricted to those aged < 55 years (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.5, 95% CI: 2-7), particularly for intracerebral hemorrhage (IRR: 16, 95% CI: 4-61). Conclusion The excess stroke incidence in Aboriginal South Australians appears substantial, especially in those aged <55 years. Further work is required to delineate and address disparities.

Factors contributing to sex differences in functional outcomes and participation after stroke

Objective

To examine factors contributing to the sex differences in functional outcomes and participation restriction after stroke.

Methods

Individual participant data on long-term functional outcome or participation restriction (i.e., handicap) were obtained from 11 stroke incidence studies (1993–2014). Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to estimate the female:male relative risk (RR) of poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score >2 or Barthel Index score <20) at 1 year (10 studies, n = 4,852) and 5 years (7 studies, n = 2,226). Multivariable linear regression was used to compare the mean difference (MD) in participation restriction by use of the London Handicap Scale (range 0–100 with lower scores indicating poorer outcome) for women compared to men at 5 years (2 studies, n = 617). For each outcome, study-specific estimates adjusted for confounding factors (e.g., sociodemographics, stroke-related factors) were combined with the use of random-effects meta-analysis.

Results

In unadjusted analyses, women experienced worse functional outcomes after stroke than men (1 year: pooled RRunadjusted 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.48; 5 years: RRunadjusted 1.31, 95% CI 1.16–1.47). However, this difference was greatly attenuated after adjustment for age, prestroke dependency, and stroke severity (1 year: RRadjusted 1.08, 95% CI 0.97–1.20; 5 years: RRadjusted 1.05, 95% CI 0.94–1.18). Women also had greater participation restriction than men (pooled MDunadjusted −5.55, 95% CI −8.47 to −2.63), but this difference was again attenuated after adjustment for the aforementioned factors (MDadjusted −2.48, 95% CI −4.99 to 0.03).

Conclusions

Worse outcomes after stroke among women were explained mostly by age, stroke severity, and prestroke dependency, suggesting these potential targets to improve the outcomes after stroke in women.

Five-Year Case Fatality Following First-Ever Stroke in the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study: A Population-Based Study of Stroke in the Middle East

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Despite recent declines in stroke mortality in high-income countries, the incidence and mortality of stroke have increased in many low- and middle-income countries. Population-based information on stroke in such countries is a research priority to address this rising trend. This study was designed to evaluate 5-year stroke mortality and its associated factors.

METHODS

During a 12-month period beginning from November 2006, 624 patients with first-ever stroke (FES) living in Mashhad, Iran, were recruited and followed longitudinally. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to determine the cumulative risk of death. Prognostic variables associated with death were assessed using a Cox proportional hazard, backward logistic regression model.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 53.8% for women and 60.5% for men (log rank = .1). The most frequent causes of death were stroke (41.2%), myocardial infarction/vascular diseases (16.4%), and pneumonia (14.2%). In multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, male gender (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.64), age (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.05, per 1-year increase), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score at admission (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.09-1.12, per 1-point increase), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.78, CI: 1.24-2.54), and education < 12 years (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.08-2.4) were associated with greater 5-year case fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term case fatality following stroke in Iran is greater than that observed in many high-income countries. Targeting strategies to reduce the poor outcome following stroke, such as treating AF, is likely to reduce this disparate outcome.

Quality of Life Is Poorer for Patients With Stroke Who Require an Interpreter: An Observational Australian Registry Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In multicultural Australia, some patients with stroke cannot fully understand, or speak, English. Language barriers may reduce quality of care and consequent outcomes after stroke, yet little has been reported empirically.

METHODS

An observational study of patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack (2010-2015) captured from 45 hospitals participating in the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry. The use of interpreters in hospitals, which is routinely documented, was used as a proxy for severe language barriers. Health-Related Quality of Life was assessed using the EuroQoL-5 dimension-3 level measured 90 to 180 days after stroke. Logistic regression was undertaken to assess the association between domains of EuroQoL-5 dimension and interpreter status.

RESULTS

Among 34 562 registrants, 1461 (4.2%) required an interpreter. Compared with patients without interpreters, patients requiring an interpreter were more often women (53% versus 46%; P<0.001), aged ≥75 years (68% versus 51%; P<0.001), and had greater access to stroke unit care (85% versus 78%; P<0.001). After accounting for patient characteristics and stroke severity, patients requiring interpreters had comparable discharge outcomes (eg, mortality, discharged to rehabilitation) to patients not needing interpreters. However, these patients reported poorer Health-Related Quality of Life (visual analogue scale coefficient, -9; 95% CI, -12.38, -5.62), including more problems with self-care (odds ratio: 2.22; 95% CI, 1.82, 2.72), pain (odds ratio: 1.84; 95% CI, 1.52, 2.34), anxiety or depression (odds ratio: 1.60; 95% CI, 1.33, 1.93), and usual activities (odds ratio: 1.62; 95% CI, 1.32, 2.00).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients requiring interpreters reported poorer Health Related Quality of Life after stroke/transient ischemic attack despite greater access to stroke units. These findings should be interpreted with caution because we are unable to account for prestroke Health Related Quality of Life. Further research is needed.

Prescription of antihypertensive medication at discharge influences survival following stroke

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risk of death from cardiovascular disease between patients who were and were not prescribed antihypertensive medication following stroke or TIA.

METHODS

This was a large cohort study using routinely collected prospective data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry. Patients registered between 2009 and 2013 who were discharged to the community or rehabilitation were included. Cases were linked to the National Death Index to determine the date and cause of death. Propensity score matching with stratification was utilized to compare between similar subgroups of patients. Multivariable competing risks regression, with noncardiovascular death as a competing risk, was conducted to investigate the association between the prescription of antihypertensive medications and cardiovascular death at 180 days after admission.

RESULTS

Among 12,198 patients from 40 hospitals, 70% were prescribed antihypertensive medications. Patients who were older, were treated in a stroke unit, and had better socioeconomic position were more often discharged from hospital with an antihypertensive medication. Including only patients within propensity score quintiles with acceptable levels of balance in covariates between groups (n = 8,786), prescription of antihypertensive medications was associated with a 23% greater reduction in the subhazard of cardiovascular death compared to those who were not prescribed these agents (subhazard ratio 0.77; 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

People who are prescribed antihypertensive medications at discharge from hospital after a stroke or TIA demonstrate better cardiovascular and all-cause survival outcomes than those not prescribed these agents.

Abstract WP186: The Quality of Secondary Prevention after Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack is Worse in Survivors With Disability

Introduction: Severity of stroke impacts functional outcomes after stroke, but the role of this disability on secondary prevention is unclear. We investigated the effect of disability status on secondary prevention outcomes, such as the management of risk factors, knowledge regarding secondary prevention, and long-term unmet needs.

Methods: Post-hoc analysis of a clinical trial of community-dwelling adults with stroke/TIA in Melbourne, Australia. Demographic/clinical data were obtained from hospital records, while standardised assessments were conducted for disability, cardiovascular risk, and mood. Disability was defined using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS): no disability (mRS=0), no significant disability (mRS=1), or slight to severe disability (mRS 2-5). Two-year outcomes included the standardized cardiovascular Framingham risk score, unmet needs, and knowledge of risk factors and medications prescribed for secondary prevention. Multivariable regression models were used to determine the effect of disability status on outcomes.

Results: From January 2010 to November 2013, 563 survivors of stroke/TIA were recruited: median age 70.1 years, 65% males, 79% ischemic stroke, and 29% with no disability. After a 2-year follow-up, 86% provided outcome data. In the multivariable regression analyses, when compared to participants with no significant disability, those with slight/severe disability had greater cardiovascular risk scores (odds ratio 1.33, 95% CI 1.00-1.76). A dose-response effect was found for disability status and long-term unmet needs, with more unmet needs reported among those with no significant disability (incidence risk ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.21-1.99) or with slight/severe disability (incidence risk ratio 1.64, 95% CI 1.24-2.16), than in those with no disability. We found no effect of disability status on knowledge of risk factors or medications.

Conclusions: After a 24-month follow-up, survivors of stroke/TIA with disability had worse risk profiles and more unmet needs than those with no disability, and may benefit from targeted care post-discharge.

The Incidence and Characteristics of Stroke in Urban-Dwelling Iranian Women

BACKGROUND

Population-based data regarding stroke among women are scarce in developing countries. This study was designed to determine whether sex differences exist in stroke incidence, mortality, and recurrence.

METHODS

The Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study is a population-based cohort study in Iran. For a period of 1 year, all patients with stroke in 3 geographical regions in Mashhad were recruited and then followed up for 5 years. Age- and sex-specific crude incidence rates were standardized to the World Health Organization New World Population. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios were assessed for all age groups and all subtypes of first-ever stroke (FES).

RESULTS

The annual crude incidence rate of FES (per 100,000 population) was similar in men (144; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 129-160) and women (133; 95% CI: 119-149). Standardized FES annual incidence rates were 239 (95% CI: 213-267) for men and 225 (95% CI 200-253) for women, both greater than in most western countries. There were no significant differences in stroke recurrence or case-fatality between women and men during early and long-term follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The similar incidence of stroke between men and women highlights the importance of equally prioritizing adequate preventive strategies for both sexes. The greater relative incidence of stroke in women in Mashhad compared with other countries warrants improvement of primary and secondary stroke prevention.