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Phan HT, Gall SL, Blizzard CL, Lannin NA, Thrift AG, Anderson CS, Kim J, Grimley R, Castley HC, Hand P, Cadilhac DA. Sex Differences in Care and Long-Term Mortality After Stroke: Australian Stroke Clinical Registry. J Womens Health (Larchmt) 2019; 28:712-720. [PMID: 30900954 DOI: 10.1089/jwh.2018.7171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction: There is some evidence that women receive evidence-based care less often than men, but how this influences long-term mortality after stroke is unclear. We explored this issue using data from a national stroke registry. Materials and Methods: Data are first-ever hospitalized strokes (2010-2014) in the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry from 39 hospitals linked to the national death registrations. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to estimate the women:men mortality rate ratio (MRR), with adjustment for sociodemographics, stroke severity, and processes of care (stroke unit care, intravenous thrombolysis, antihypertensive agent[s], and discharge care plan). Results: Among 14,118 events (46% females), women were 7 years older and had greater baseline severity compared to men (29% vs. 37%; p < 0.001), but there were no differences in the four processes of care available across hospitals. In the whole cohort, 1-year mortality was greater in women than men (MRRunadjusted 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-1.54). However, there were no differences after adjusting for age and stroke severity (MRRadjusted 1.03, 95% CI 0.95-1.10). In analyses of additional processes from Queensland hospitals (n = 5224), women were less often administered aspirin ≤48 hours (61% vs. men 69%, p < 0.015). In Queensland hospitals, there were no statistically significant sex differences in 1-year mortality after adjusting for age, stroke severity, and early administration of aspirin. Conclusion: Greater mortality in women can be explained by differences in age and stroke severity. This highlights the importance of better management of risk factors in the elderly and, potentially, the need for greater access to early aspirin for women with stroke.
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Busingye D, Arabshahi S, Evans RG, Riddell MA, Srikanth VK, Kartik K, Kalyanram K, Zhu X, Suresh O, Howard G, Thrift AG. Knowledge of risk factors for hypertension in a rural Indian population. HEART ASIA 2019; 11:e011136. [PMID: 31031832 DOI: 10.1136/heartasia-2018-011136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2018] [Revised: 01/22/2019] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Objective To study knowledge of risk factors and consequences of hypertension in a rural population in South India. Methods This is a community-based study conducted among adults of a rural population in the Rishi Valley, India. Residents of randomised rural villages were invited to participate in a study of hypertension. We obtained measures of blood pressure, height, weight, waist and hip circumferences and questionnaire-based information on knowledge about hypertension, sociodemographic characteristics and health behaviours. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the factors associated with knowledge of risk factors for hypertension (knowledge of ≥2 risk factors). Results The study comprised 641 adults; 132 aware and 218 unaware of their hypertension, and 291 with normal blood pressure. Only 31% of participants knew that hypertension adversely affects an individual's health and 7% knew the benefits of treating hypertension. Almost a third (30%) of those aware of their hypertensive status, and 48% overall, did not know any of the risk factors for hypertension. Being aware of one's hypertensive status (OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.44 to 4.39), being treated for hypertension, male sex, younger age, having some schooling, abdominal obesity and physical inactivity were associated with better knowledge of risk factors for hypertension. Conclusion Knowledge of risk factors and consequences of hypertension in this disadvantaged population was poor. There was better knowledge of risk factors in some, but not all, people who were aware of having hypertension. Screening and targeted educational programmes are warranted in this population to improve health behaviours and reduce the consequences of hypertension.
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Azarpazhooh MR, Mandzia JL, Thrift AG, Sposato LA, Morovatdar N, Amiri A, Kapral MK, Yassi N, Bahit C, Kaul S, Alladi S, Nilanont Y, Coppola M, Nucera A, Silver B, Werring D, Simister R, Swartz RH, Owolabi MO, Ovbiagele B, Hachinski V. Age, sex, and setting in the etiology of stroke study (ASSESS): Study design and protocol. J Neurol Sci 2019; 399:209-213. [PMID: 30851659 DOI: 10.1016/j.jns.2019.02.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2018] [Revised: 01/21/2019] [Accepted: 02/13/2019] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
RATIONALE Stroke etiology and risk factors vary by age, sex, setting (hospital or community-based) and by region. Identifying these differences would improve our understanding of stroke etiology, diagnosis, and treatment. AIM The Age, Sex and Setting in the Etiology of Stroke Study (ASSESS) is a multicenter cohort study to assess differences in stroke etiology. METHODS AND DESIGN Data from all centers will be categorized according to age, sex, setting, stroke subtypes. Centers with extensive hospital- or community-based data regarding stroke from Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Iran, Italy, Ghana, Nigeria, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States have agreed to participate so far. STUDY OUTCOMES The primary outcome includes differences in stroke etiology in study centers. The secondary outcomes include stroke incidence, risk factors, preventive strategies, and short- and long-term outcomes. CONCLUSION ASSESS will enable comparisons of data from different regions to determine the age and sex distribution of the most common causes of stroke in each setting. This will help clinicians to tailor the assessment and treatment of stroke patients on the basis of their specific local characteristics. It will also empower stroke epidemiologists to design preventive measures by targeting the specific characteristics of each population.
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Rehman S, Sahle B, Chandra RV, Thrift AG, Callisaya M, Dwyer M, Breslin M, Phan HT, Otahal P, Gall S. Abstract WP237: Risk Factors for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Women: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Stroke 2019. [DOI: 10.1161/str.50.suppl_1.wp237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) affects women more than men, unlike other stroke types. We completed a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors associated with the occurrence of aSAH in women.
Methods:
A systematic search was conducted using the Pubmed, Scopus, Embase, and Medline databases from inception to November 2017 to identify studies that included aSAH risk factors among women only or mentioned female sex as a risk factor. The risk factors were assessed using meta-analysis if reported by at least two studies.
Results:
Fourteen studies (10 case-control; 4 cohort) were included. Female sex was associated with higher odds or risk of aSAH in pooled estimates of cohort studies (HR
adjusted
1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.46) but not in case-control studies (OR
adjusted
1.44, 95% CI 0.83-2.52). Menarche at an early age (age <12 years HR
crude
1.15 [95% CI 0.52-2.55], age <13 years OR
adjusted
3.24 [95% CI 1.25-4.03]), pregnancy at ≥26 years (OR
adjusted
1.78 [95% CI 1.13-2.80]), use of contraceptive pills (RR
crude
range, 5.3-6.5), nulligravidity (OR
adjusted
4.23 [95% CI 1.05-7.56]), aSAH predilection area (RR
crude
1.81) and being divorced (RR
crude
1.89) increased the risk for aSAH in women. Parity moderately decreased the risk for aSAH (parity >3 HR
crude
1.21 [95% CI 0.68-2.14], parity=2 OR
adjusted
0.87 [95% CI 0.64-1.19], parity ≥5, OR
adjusted
0.25 [95% CI 0.03-1.89]).
Conclusion:
A number of risk factors, primarily related to reproductive hormones, for aSAH were identified in women. These could be potential causes of higher incidence of aSAH in women compared to men. There is a need for further research focused on aSAH in order to explore the association of these risk factors with aSAH in women.
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Rehman S, Sahle B, Chandra RV, Thrift AG, Callisaya M, Dwyer M, Breslin M, Phan HT, Otahal P, Gall S. Abstract WMP58: Sex Differences in Risk Factors for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Stroke 2019. [DOI: 10.1161/str.50.suppl_1.wmp58] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) disproportionally affects women. The etiology of this is unclear, and the contribution of sex differences in aSAH risk factors is unknown. We aimed to identify sex differences in aSAH risk factors in a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Methods:
A systematic search was conducted using the Pubmed, Scopus, Embase, and Medline databases from inception to November 2017 to identify studies that included aSAH risk factors stratified by sex. aSAH risk factors were assessed using meta-analysis with pooled odds ratios (OR) calculated for risk factors with at least 2 studies.
Results:
There were 34 eligible case-control studies; however, 15 did not report sex specific findings with 19 were included. Hypertension (men pooled OR
adjusted
3.13 [95% CI 2.26-4.34]; women pooled OR
adjusted
3.65 [95% CI 2.87-4.63], p=0.18), smoking (men pooled OR
adjusted
2.96 [95% CI 1.68-5.21]; women pooled OR
adjusted
3.11 [95% CI 1.21-7.97], p=0.95),
family history of aSAH, increased systolic blood pressure, age, angiotensin-converting enzyme gene polymorphism and variation in a protease gene had the same odds for aSAH in both sexes. Alcohol intake (men pooled OR
adjusted
1.50 [95% CI 1.04-2.17], women pooled OR
adjusted
0.83 [95% CI 0.48-1.45], p=0.003), high alanine aminotransferase levels, and endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene variant were associated with higher odds of aSAH in men than women. Cold temperature, polymorphisms in factor XIII gene and genetic variation on chromosome 9p21 increased the odds of aSAH in women but not men. High aspartate aminotransferase levels were associated with a reduced risk in men while diabetes mellitus decreased the risk in women (men pooled OR
adjusted
0.57 [95% CI 0.32-1.01], women pooled OR
adjusted
0.24 [95% CI 0.13-0.43], p=0.017).
Conclusion:
Except for alcohol intake and diabetes mellitus, the magnitude of aSAH risk associated with most common risk factors were similar for both sexes. We advocate for re-analysis of existing studies with regard to sex differences.
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Ung D, Gerraty RP, Frayne J, Olaiya MT, Kim J, Srikanth VK, Phan T, Cadilhac DA, Nelson MR, Bladin CF, Thrift AG. Abstract TP396: Accuracy of Administrative Hospital, Emergency Department and Death Records. Stroke 2019. [DOI: 10.1161/str.50.suppl_1.tp396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Hospital, emergency presentation and death databases are frequently used to research outcomes after stroke. The reliability of diagnostic coding for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in these administrative data remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the reliability of these data in Australia using an existing clinical trial cohort.
Methods:
Patients with stroke/TIA who participated in the Shared Team Approach between Nurses and Doctors For Improved Risk factor Management (STAND FIRM) trial (n = 563, recruited from 4 hospitals within Victoria). We used diagnostic ICD-10-AM coded data from hospital, emergency department and death databases within 2 years after stroke/TIA. Medical records for these potential CVD-related events were reviewed by two independent stroke specialists and adjudicated according to strict criteria. We then estimated sensitivity and specificity of using either primary or both primary and secondary diagnoses fields (obtained for all adjudicated records), against the events adjudicated by the specialists (gold standard). False positives were CVD-events defined by ICD-10-AM diagnostic codes that were adjudicated as not being a CVD-event. False negatives were true CVD-events that were misclassified as not being CVD-related when using ICD-10-AM codes.
Results:
We identified 261 events for medical review. After adjudication, 65 were classified as CVD-events (cases) and 196 were not CVD-events. Using both primary and secondary diagnoses, 55 true positives were correctly identified among the cases (sensitivity = 84.6%) and 129 true negatives among the non-cases (specificity = 65.8%). Using only primary diagnoses, 48 true positives were identified (sensitivity = 73.9%) and 171 true negatives (specificity = 87.2%). Using both primary and secondary diagnoses had an increased sensitivity, but decreased specificity (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70, 0.81) when compared with using only primary diagnoses (AUC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75, 0.86; p = 0.028).
Conclusion:
Both primary and secondary diagnoses should be used to identify true CVD-events and minimise misclassifying these in administrative databases.
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Phan TG, Kooblal T, Matley C, Singhal S, Clissold B, Ly J, Thrift AG, Srikanth V, Ma H. Stroke Severity Versus Dysphagia Screen as Driver for Post-stroke Pneumonia. Front Neurol 2019; 10:16. [PMID: 30761063 PMCID: PMC6361825 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2019.00016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2018] [Accepted: 01/07/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and Purpose: Post-stroke pneumonia is a feared complication of stroke as it is associated with greater mortality and disability than in those without pneumonia. Patients are often kept “Nil By Mouth” (NBM) after stroke until after receiving a screen for dysphagia and declared safe to resume oral intake. We aimed to assess the proportional contribution of stroke severity and dysphagia screen to pneumonia by borrowing idea from coalition game theory on fair distribution of marginal profit (Shapley value). Method: Retrospective study of admissions to the stroke unit at Monash Medical Center in 2015. Seventy-five percent of data were partitioned into training set and the remainder (25%) into validation set. Variables associated with pneumonia (p < 0.1) were entered into Shapley value regression and conditional decision tree analysis. Results: In 2015, there were 797 admissions and 617 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (age 69.9 ± 16.2, male = 55.0%, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale/NIHSS 8.1 ± 7.9). The frequency of pneumonia was 6.6% (41/617). In univariable analyses NIHSS, time to dysphagia screen, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and age were significantly associated with pneumonia but not weekend admission. Shapley value regression showed that the largest contributor to the model was stroke severity (72.8%) followed by CCI (16.2%), dysphagia screen (3.8%), and age (7.2%). Decision tree analysis yielded an NIHSS threshold of 14 for classifying people with (27% of 75 patients) and without pneumonia (2.5% of 308 patients). The area under the ROC curve for training data was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.91) with no detectable difference between the training and test data (p = 0.4). Results were similar when dysphagia was exchanged for the variable dysphagia screen. Conclusion: Stroke severity status, and not dysphagia or dysphagia screening contributed to the decision tree model of post stroke pneumonia. We cannot exclude the chance that using dysphagia screen in this cohort had minimized the impact of dysphagia on development of pneumonia.
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Kim J, Thrift AG. A Promising Skills-Based Intervention to Reduce Blood Pressure in Individuals With Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack. JAMA Neurol 2019; 76:13-14. [PMID: 30304354 DOI: 10.1001/jamaneurol.2018.2935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
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134
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Feigin VL, Nguyen G, Cercy K, Johnson CO, Alam T, Parmar PG, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, Abejie AN, Abyu GY, Ademi Z, Agarwal G, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Al-Raddadi R, Aminde LN, Amlie-Lefond C, Ansari H, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Ayele HT, Banach M, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Basu S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe DF, Boneya DJ, Brainin M, Campos-Nonato IR, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Christensen H, Criqui MH, Damasceno A, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davletov K, de Courten B, deVeber G, Dokova K, Edessa D, Endres M, Faraon EJA, Farvid MS, Fischer F, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Gall SL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Gillum RF, Giroud M, Goulart AC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hachinski V, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hareri HA, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Hibstu DT, James SL, Jeemon P, John D, Jonas JB, Jóźwiak J, Kalani R, Kandel A, Kasaeian A, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kravchenko M, Krishnamurthi R, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lavados PM, Legesse Y, Li Y, Liang X, Lo WD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Loy CT, Mackay MT, Abd El Razek HM, Mahdavi M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mantovani LG, Martins SCO, Mate KK, Mazidi M, Mehata S, Meier T, Melaku YA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Ibrahim NM, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moosazadeh M, Moran AE, Musa KI, Negoi RI, Nguyen M, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Tran TT, Nguyen TT, Anggraini Ningrum DN, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, O’Donnell MJ, Olagunju AT, Onuma OK, Owolabi MO, Parsaeian M, Patton GC, Piradov M, Pletcher MA, Pourmalek F, Prakash V, Qorbani M, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Ranta A, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Renzaho AMN, Robinson SR, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Salomon JA, Santalucia P, Santos IS, Sartorius B, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shamsizadeh M, Sheth KN, Sisay M, Shin MJ, Shiue I, Silva DAS, Sobngwi E, Soljak M, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Stranges S, Suliankatchi RA, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tanne D, Nguyen CT, Thakur JS, Thrift AG, Tirschwell DL, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Nguyen LT, Truelsen T, Tsilimparis N, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uthman OA, Varakin Y, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Wang W, Werdecker A, Wolfe CDA, Xu G, Yano Y, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhou M, Ziaeian B, Zipkin B, Vos T, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Roth GA. Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016. N Engl J Med 2018; 379:2429-2437. [PMID: 30575491 PMCID: PMC6247346 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1804492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 874] [Impact Index Per Article: 145.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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135
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Kilkenny MF, Kim J, Andrew NE, Sundararajan V, Thrift AG, Katzenellenbogen JM, Flack F, Gattellari M, Boyd JH, Anderson P, Lannin N, Sipthorp M, Chen Y, Johnston T, Anderson CS, Middleton S, Donnan GA, Cadilhac DA. Maximising data value and avoiding data waste: a validation study in stroke research. Med J Aust 2018; 210:27-31. [DOI: 10.5694/mja2.12029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 07/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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136
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, 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Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Joshi R, Thrift AG, Smith C, Praveen D, Vedanthan R, Gyamfi J, Schwalm JD, Limbani F, Rubinstein A, Parker G, Ogedegbe O, Plange-Rhule J, Riddell MA, Thankappan KR, Thorogood M, Goudge J, Yeates KE. Task-shifting for cardiovascular risk factor management: lessons from the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases. BMJ Glob Health 2018; 3:e001092. [PMID: 30483414 PMCID: PMC6231102 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2018] [Revised: 10/05/2018] [Accepted: 10/06/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Task-shifting to non-physician health workers (NPHWs) has been an effective model for managing infectious diseases and improving maternal and child health. There is inadequate evidence to show the effectiveness of NPHWs to manage cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In 2012, the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases funded eight studies which focused on task-shifting to NPHWs for the management of hypertension. We report the lessons learnt from the field. From each of the studies, we obtained information on the types of tasks shifted, the professional level from which the task was shifted, the training provided and the challenges faced. Additionally, we collected more granular data on ‘lessons learnt ’ throughout the implementation process and ‘design to implementation’ changes that emerged in each project. The tasks shifted to NPHWs included screening of individuals, referral to physicians for diagnosis and management, patient education for lifestyle improvement, follow-up and reminders for medication adherence and appointments. In four studies, tasks were shifted from physicians to NPHWs and in four studies tasks were shared between two different levels of NPHWs. Training programmes ranged between 3 and 7 days with regular refresher training. Two studies used clinical decision support tools and mobile health components. Challenges faced included system level barriers such as inability to prescribe medicines, varying skill sets of NPHWs, high workload and staff turnover. With the acute shortage of the health workforce in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), achieving better health outcomes for the prevention and control of CVD is a major challenge. Task-shifting or sharing provides a practical model for the management of CVD in LMICs.
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Thayabaranathan T, Immink MA, Stevens P, Hillier S, Thrift AG, Brodtmann A, Carey L, Kilkenny MF, Cadilhac DA. Understanding the potential for yoga and tai chi interventions to moderate risk factors for stroke – a scoping review. FUTURE NEUROLOGY 2018. [DOI: 10.2217/fnl-2018-0005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Following an initial stroke, approximately two in five people will experience another stroke within 10 years. Recurrent strokes are often more severe and fatal. Mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) that use movement to focus attention, such as yoga and tai chi, may offer a lifestyle strategy in addition to standard rehabilitation options, for moderating risk factors for stroke. We conducted a scoping review to explore the potential for yoga or tai chi to moderate modifiable risk factors for stroke. 26 papers between 1985 and 2017 were identified using online and gray literature databases. Overall, yoga or tai chi may reduce hypertension (up to 16/9 mmHg), and to a lesser extent some lipid and blood sugar levels. Study designs were heterogeneous. Further research on mediating pathways of MBIs, such as yoga or tai chi, on modifiable risk factors for stroke is warranted.
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Pandian JD, Gall SL, Kate MP, Silva GS, Akinyemi RO, Ovbiagele BI, Lavados PM, Gandhi DBC, Thrift AG. Prevention of stroke: a global perspective. Lancet 2018; 392:1269-1278. [PMID: 30319114 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31269-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 209] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2018] [Revised: 05/04/2018] [Accepted: 05/29/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Along with the rising global burden of disability attributed to stroke, costs of stroke care are rising, providing the impetus to direct our research focus towards effective measures of stroke prevention. In this Series paper, we discuss strategies for reducing the risk of the emergence of disease (primordial prevention), preventing the onset of disease (primary prevention), and preventing the recurrence of disease (secondary prevention). Our focus includes global strategies and campaigns, and measurements of the effectiveness of worldwide preventive interventions, with an emphasis on low-income and middle-income countries. Our findings reveal that effective tobacco control, adequate nutrition, and development of healthy cities are important strategies for primordial prevention, whereas polypill strategies, use of mobile technology (mHealth), along with salt reduction and other dietary interventions, are effective in the primary prevention of stroke. An effective collaboration between various health-care sectors, government policies, and campaigns can successfully implement secondary prevention strategies, through surveillance and registries, such as the WHO's non-communicable diseases programmes, across high-income and low-income countries.
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Stolwyk RJ, O'Connell E, Lawson DW, Thrift AG, New PW. Neurobehavioral disability in stroke patients during subacute inpatient rehabilitation: prevalence and biopsychosocial associations. Top Stroke Rehabil 2018; 25:1-8. [PMID: 30213238 DOI: 10.1080/10749357.2018.1499301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Accepted: 07/07/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES There are scarce data on post-stroke neurobehavioral disability (NBD). The aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of NBD in a subacute inpatient stroke population and examine potential associations with demographic, stroke-related, functional and psychosocial variables. METHODS 82 survivors of stroke were consecutively recruited during their inpatient rehabilitation admission. Nursing staff rated NBD in patients using the St Andrews -Swansea Neurobehavioral Outcome Scale (SASNOS). Measures of patient functional independence (FIM), cognition (MoCA), and mood symptoms (HADS) were collected in addition to nursing reports of whether observed NBD negatively impacted on the patient or those around them. RESULTS NBD relating to interpersonal relationships (44.4% of participants) and cognition (52.4%) were highly prevalent within the sample while NBD relating to inhibition (1.2%), aggression (3.6%), and communication (2.5%) were relatively rare. Presence of NBD was significantly associated with reduced functional independence (rs=0.39, p < 0.01) and associated with trends in cognitive impairment (rs=0.29, p = 0.03), increased anxiety (rs=-0.43, p = 0.02) and depressive symptoms (rs=-0.43, p = 0.02). Presence of NBD was significantly correlated with negative impact to the patient and those around them across all SASNOS domains (rs range 0.42 - 0.45, all p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS NBD is common within a subacute stroke inpatient population, particularly interpersonal and cognitive difficulties and preliminary analyses indicate associations with reduced functional ability, cognition and mood. There is a need to provide education and support to clinicians to facilitate routine assessment and management of NBD following stroke.
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Farzadfard MT, Sheikh Andalibi MS, Thrift AG, Morovatdar N, Stranges S, Amiri A, Kapral MK, Behrouz R, Juibary AG, Mokhber N, Azarpazhooh MR. Long-term disability after stroke in Iran: Evidence from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study. Int J Stroke 2018; 14:44-47. [DOI: 10.1177/1747493018789839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background Accurate information about disability rate after stroke remains largely unclear in many countries. Population-based studies are necessary to estimate the rate and determinants of disability after stroke. Methods Patients were recruited from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study and followed for five years after their index event. Disability was measured using the modified Rankin scale and functional dependency was measured using the Barthel index. Results Among 684 patients registered in this study, 624 were first-ever strokes. In total, 69.0% (n = 409) of patients either died or remained disabled at five-year follow-up. Among the first-ever stroke survivors, 18.5% (n = 69) at one year and 15.9% (n = 31) at five years required major assistance in their daily activities. Patients with a history of stroke (before the study period) compared with first-ever strokes were more likely to be disabled at one year (modified Rankin scale>2 in 40.0% vs. 19.1%; P < 0.001). Advanced age, severity of stroke at the time of admission, diabetes mellitus, and educational level (<12 years) were independently associated with greater disability and functional dependency. Conclusion We found that significant disability and functional dependency after stroke in Northeast Iran were largely attributable to the effects of stroke severity and prior dependency.
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Thayabaranathan T, Andrew NE, Kilkenny MF, Stolwyk R, Thrift AG, Grimley R, Johnston T, Sundararajan V, Lannin NA, Cadilhac DA. Factors influencing self-reported anxiety or depression following stroke or TIA using linked registry and hospital data. Qual Life Res 2018; 27:3145-3155. [DOI: 10.1007/s11136-018-1960-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/28/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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Cadilhac DA, Busingye D, Li JC, Andrew NE, Kilkenny MF, Thrift AG, Thijs V, Hackett ML, Kneebone I, Lannin NA, Stewart A, Dempsey I, Cameron J. Development of an electronic health message system to support recovery after stroke: Inspiring Virtual Enabled Resources following Vascular Events (iVERVE). Patient Prefer Adherence 2018; 12:1213-1224. [PMID: 30034225 PMCID: PMC6047510 DOI: 10.2147/ppa.s154581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Worldwide, stroke is a leading cause of disease burden. Many survivors have unmet needs after discharge from hospital. Electronic communication technology to support post-discharge care has not been used for patients with stroke. In this paper, we describe the development of a novel electronic messaging system designed for survivors of stroke to support their goals of recovery and secondary prevention after hospital discharge. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS This was a formative evaluation study. The design was informed by a literature search, existing data from survivors of stroke, and behavior change theories. We established two working groups; one for developing the electronic infrastructure and the other (comprising researchers, clinical experts and consumer representatives) for establishing the patient-centered program. Following agreement on the categories for the goal-setting menu, we drafted relevant messages to support and educate patients. These messages were then independently reviewed by multiple topic experts. Concurrently, we established an online database to capture participant characteristics and then integrated this database with a purpose-built messaging system. We conducted alpha testing of the approach using the first 60 messages. RESULTS The initial goal-setting menu comprised 26 subcategories. Following expert review, another 8 goal subcategories were added to the secondary prevention category: managing cholesterol; smoking; physical activity; alcohol consumption; weight management; medication management; access to health professionals, and self-care. Initially, 455 health messages were created by members of working group 2. Following refinement and mapping to different goals by the project team, 980 health messages across the health goals and 69 general motivational messages were formulated. Seventeen independent reviewers assessed the messages and suggested adding 73 messages and removing 16 (2%). Overall, 1,233 messages (18 administrative, 69 general motivation and 1,146 health-related) were created. CONCLUSION This novel electronic self-management support system is ready to be pilot tested in a randomized controlled trial in patients with stroke.
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Jones KM, Bhattacharjee R, Krishnamurthi R, Blanton S, Barker-Collo S, Theadom A, Thrift AG, Wolf SL, Venketasubramanian N, Parmar P, Maujean A, Ranta A, Cadilhac D, Sanya EO, MacKay-Lyons M, Pandian JD, Arora D, Obiako RO, Saposnik G, Balalla S, Bornstein NM, Langhorne P, Norrving B, Brown N, Brainin M, Taylor D, Feigin VL. Determining the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a stroke instructional and educational DVD in a multinational context: a randomized controlled pilot study. Clin Rehabil 2018; 32:1086-1097. [PMID: 29843517 DOI: 10.1177/0269215518777565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial of an instructional and educational stroke DVD and determine the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of this intervention in a multinational context. DESIGN Non-funded, pilot randomized controlled trial of intervention versus usual care. SETTING International, multicentre, community-based. PARTICIPANTS Community-living adults up to three years post stroke with moderate to severe disability and their nominated informal caregivers. INTERVENTIONS Intervention patients viewed and practised rehabilitation techniques demonstrated in the DVD over six weeks. MAIN MEASURES Trial feasibility by number of active recruitment sites, recruitment efficiency, randomization and follow-up. Intervention feasibility by patient and caregiver impressions. Preliminary efficacy by the quality of life - 5-level EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) health status measure, General Health Questionnaire and Centre for Epidemiological Studies-Depression at two months. RESULTS In total, 14 recruitment sites were established across eight countries. Recruitment was achieved at nine (64%) sites. Over 16 months, 66 participants were recruited (mean (SD) age = 63.5 (12.47) years) and randomized to intervention ( n = 34) and control ( n = 32) groups. In total, 54 (82%) completed a follow-up assessment. Patient and/or caregiver comments about the benefits and barriers to accessing the intervention were mixed. There were no significant between-group differences in outcomes at two months ( P > 0.05). CONCLUSION Conducting a multinational trial of a stroke DVD requires full funding. The intervention was acceptable to some patients and their caregivers, yet a generalized education approach did not fully meet their needs and/or expectations. A more individualized method may be required to meet peoples' changing needs during stroke recovery.
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Balabanski AH, Newbury J, Leyden JM, Arima H, Anderson CS, Castle S, Cranefield J, Paterson T, Thrift AG, Katzenellenbogen J, Brown A, Kleinig TJ. Excess stroke incidence in young Aboriginal people in South Australia: Pooled results from two population-based studies. Int J Stroke 2018; 13:811-814. [PMID: 29767602 DOI: 10.1177/1747493018778113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Background Retrospective data indicate increased stroke incidence in Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, possibly with poorer outcomes. We present the first prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Indigenous Australians. Methods We pooled data from ASCEND and SEARCH, two prospective "ideal" South Australian stroke incidence studies, ASCEND conducted in urban Northwestern Adelaide (2009-2010) and SEARCH in five South Australian rural centers (2009-2011). We calculated age-standardized incidence for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people. Results The study population comprised 261,403 inhabitants. Among 432 first-ever strokes, 13 were in Aboriginal people (median age 51 vs. 78 years for non-Aboriginal people, p < 0.001). Age-standardized stroke incidence per 100,000 in Aboriginal patients (116, 95% CI: 95-137) was nearly two-fold that of non-Aboriginal patients (67, 95% CI: 51-84). Age-stratified excess incidence in Aboriginal people was restricted to those aged < 55 years (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.5, 95% CI: 2-7), particularly for intracerebral hemorrhage (IRR: 16, 95% CI: 4-61). Conclusion The excess stroke incidence in Aboriginal South Australians appears substantial, especially in those aged <55 years. Further work is required to delineate and address disparities.
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Phan HT, Blizzard CL, Reeves MJ, Thrift AG, Cadilhac DA, Sturm J, Heeley E, Otahal P, Vemmos K, Anderson C, Parmar P, Krishnamurthi R, Barker-Collo S, Feigin V, Bejot Y, Cabral NL, Carolei A, Sacco S, Chausson N, Olindo S, Rothwell P, Silva C, Correia M, Magalhães R, Appelros P, Kõrv J, Vibo R, Minelli C, Gall SL. Factors contributing to sex differences in functional outcomes and participation after stroke. Neurology 2018; 90:e1945-e1953. [DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000005602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2017] [Accepted: 02/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
ObjectiveTo examine factors contributing to the sex differences in functional outcomes and participation restriction after stroke.MethodsIndividual participant data on long-term functional outcome or participation restriction (i.e., handicap) were obtained from 11 stroke incidence studies (1993–2014). Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to estimate the female:male relative risk (RR) of poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score >2 or Barthel Index score <20) at 1 year (10 studies, n = 4,852) and 5 years (7 studies, n = 2,226). Multivariable linear regression was used to compare the mean difference (MD) in participation restriction by use of the London Handicap Scale (range 0–100 with lower scores indicating poorer outcome) for women compared to men at 5 years (2 studies, n = 617). For each outcome, study-specific estimates adjusted for confounding factors (e.g., sociodemographics, stroke-related factors) were combined with the use of random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsIn unadjusted analyses, women experienced worse functional outcomes after stroke than men (1 year: pooled RRunadjusted 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.48; 5 years: RRunadjusted 1.31, 95% CI 1.16–1.47). However, this difference was greatly attenuated after adjustment for age, prestroke dependency, and stroke severity (1 year: RRadjusted 1.08, 95% CI 0.97–1.20; 5 years: RRadjusted 1.05, 95% CI 0.94–1.18). Women also had greater participation restriction than men (pooled MDunadjusted −5.55, 95% CI −8.47 to −2.63), but this difference was again attenuated after adjustment for the aforementioned factors (MDadjusted −2.48, 95% CI −4.99 to 0.03).ConclusionsWorse outcomes after stroke among women were explained mostly by age, stroke severity, and prestroke dependency, suggesting these potential targets to improve the outcomes after stroke in women.
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Howard VJ, Thrift AG. Preventing stroke on the street where you live, work, and play. LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 3:e158-e159. [PMID: 29550373 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(18)30046-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2018] [Accepted: 03/01/2018] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Zhu MZL, Martin A, Cochrane AD, Smith JA, Thrift AG, Harrop GK, Ngo JP, Evans RG. Urinary hypoxia: an intraoperative marker of risk of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2018; 33:2191-2201. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfy047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2017] [Accepted: 02/06/2018] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
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