The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments.

METHODS

Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates.

FINDINGS

In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000-456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000-221 000; 51·9%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5·0 (4·9-5·1) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5·7 (5·6-5·8) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2·3 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000-200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000-449 000) in 2017. There was a 2·1 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4·4 million (4·3-4·5) in 1990 to 9·1 million (8·9-9·3) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17·4 [15·8-19·0] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12·1 [10·9-13·5] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1·9 [1·5-2·3] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and São Tomé and Príncipe (1·3 [1·1-1·5] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65-69 years for males and at 75-79 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21·1% [18·8-23·7]), high fasting plasma glucose (8·9% [2·1-19·4]), and high body-mass index (6·2% [2·5-11·4]) in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Data about the global, regional, and country-specific variations in the levels and trends of colorectal cancer are required to understand the impact of this disease and the trends in its burden to help policy makers allocate resources. Here we provide a status report on the incidence, mortality, and disability caused by colorectal cancer in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017.

METHODS

Vital registration, sample vital registration, verbal autopsy, and cancer registry data were used to generate incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates of colorectal cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. We also determined the association between development levels and colorectal cancer age-standardised DALY rates, and calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. All of the estimates are reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years, with some estimates also presented by sex and 5-year age groups.

FINDINGS

In 2017, there were 1·8 million (95% UI 1·8-1·9) incident cases of colorectal cancer globally, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 23·2 (22·7-23·7) per 100 000 person-years that increased by 9·5% (4·5-13·5) between 1990 and 2017. Globally, colorectal cancer accounted for 896 000 (876 300-915 700) deaths in 2017, with an age-standardised death rate of 11·5 (11·3-11·8) per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-13·5% [-18·4 to -10·0]). Colorectal cancer was also responsible for 19·0 million (18·5-19·5) DALYs globally in 2017, with an age-standardised rate of 235·7 (229·7-242·0) DALYs per 100 000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-14·5% [-20·4 to -10·3]). Slovakia, the Netherlands, and New Zealand had the highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017. Greenland, Hungary, and Slovakia had the highest age-standardised death rates in 2017. Numbers of incident cases and deaths were higher among males than females up to the ages of 80-84 years, with the highest rates observed in the oldest age group (≥95 years) for both sexes in 2017. There was a non-linear association between the Socio-demographic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index and age-standardised DALY rates. In 2017, the three largest contributors to DALYs at the global level, for both sexes, were diet low in calcium (20·5% [12·9-28·9]), alcohol use (15·2% [12·1-18·3]), and diet low in milk (14·3% [5·1-24·8]).

INTERPRETATION

There is substantial global variation in the burden of colorectal cancer. Although the overall colorectal cancer age-standardised death rate has been decreasing at the global level, the increasing age-standardised incidence rate in most countries poses a major public health challenge across the world. The results of this study could be useful for policy makers to carry out cost-effective interventions and to reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors, particularly in countries with high incidence or increasing burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Leiomyoma phosphoproteins involved in inhibition of oxidative stress and synthesis of reactive oxygen species

Uterine leiomyomas are benign smooth muscle cell tumors originating from the myometrium. The present study focused on leiomyoma and myometrium phosphoproteome enrichment by using immobilized metal affinity chromatography (IMAC). The phosphoproteome was analyzed by two‑dimensional gel electrophoresis coupled with mass spectrometry. Western blotting was used for data validation. The results from IMAC identified 26 proteins significantly differentially phosphorylated in leiomyomas compared with normal myometrium. Three upregulated proteins (peroxiredoxin 2, protein disulfide isomerase family A member 3 and peroxiredoxin 4) were further validated by western blotting. Ingenuity pathway analysis revealed that four phosphoproteins were involved in the inhibition of oxidative stress and synthesis of reactive oxygen species. The present results demonstated for the first time an association between oxidative stress and phosphorylation in leiomyoma development.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

An Easy and Reliable Strategy for Making Type I Interferon Signature Analysis Comparable among Research Centers

Interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) are a set of genes whose transcription is induced by interferon (IFN). The measure of the expression of ISGs enables calculating an IFN score, which gives an indirect estimate of the exposition of cells to IFN-mediated inflammation. The measure of the IFN score is proposed for the screening of monogenic interferonopathies, like the Aicardi-Goutières syndrome, or to stratify subjects with systemic lupus erythematosus to receive IFN-targeted treatments. Apart from these scenarios, there is no agreement on the diagnostic value of the score in distinguishing IFN-related disorders from diseases dominated by other types of cytokines. Since the IFN score is currently measured in several research hospitals, merging experiences could help define the potential of scoring IFN inflammation in clinical practice. However, the IFN score calculated at different laboratories may be hardly comparable due to the distinct sets of IFN-stimulated genes assessed and to different controls used for data normalization. We developed a reliable approach to minimize the inter-laboratory variability, thereby providing shared strategies for the IFN signature analysis and allowing different centers to compare data and merge their experiences.

Who misses the newborn hearing screening? Five years' experience in Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region (Italy)

INTRODUCTION

Permanent hearing impairment is the most common sensory disorder in newborns. The Universal Newborn Hearing Screening (UNHS) is widely adopted as a cost-effective procedure to achieve early identification and treatment of congenital hearing impairment, with the final goal of an improved linguistic and cognitive outcome for hearing impaired children. The Italian Ministry of Health has recently comprised UNHS in the Essential Level of Health Assistance. Nevertheless, programs still vary both across and within Italian Regions in terms of coverage, testing, referral and tracking protocols. In Friuli-Venezia Giulia region the program for the early identification of newborn and childhood hearing impairment is operative since 2012. In order to minimize the lost to follow-up cases, UNHS and childhood hearing surveillance activities have been organized in close collaboration among birth centres, paediatric audiology services, territorial Family Paediatricians and the sole regional centre for paediatric hearing loss management.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We performed a five years' retrospective analysis of the UNHS experience in Friuli-Venezia Giulia comparing the UNHS activity of year 2013 and year 2017. The focus of the study concerns the "missing" cases. Three different typologies of "miss" cases ("documentation-miss", "access-miss" and "pathway-miss") have been defined in correspondence with main reasons for their occurrence.

RESULTS

Births in Friuli-Venezia Giulia were 9465 and 8432, respectively in 2013 and 2017. International quality indicators improved with a gain of efficiency in 5 years' experience. However, "missing" cases were 486 in 2013 and 321 in 2017, mainly due to the lack of an efficient documentation system.

CONCLUSION

UNHS programs have proven to be valuable and cost-effective in Friuli-Venezia Giulia and other Italian regions. New resources and efforts are required to achieve a complete standardization and informatisation of the UNHS data to avoid documentation gaps. A possible strategy would point to the opportunity to unify data management systems for all the ongoing newborn screening programs (metabolic, hearing and visual), linking the integrated IT system with the regional repository of current datasets.

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study

IMPORTANCE

Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018.

EXPOSURES

Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability.

RESULTS

Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae ciprofloxacin-resistant strains were associated with Chlamydia trachomatis coinfection

Aim: This study aims to characterize circulating strains to predict their relationship with sexually transmitted microorganisms, Chlamydia trachomatis, HIV, HCV, Treponema pallidum, HPV, Mycoplasmas, in an Italian multiethnic area, which has revealed a recent increase of Neisseria gonorrhoeae first-line antibiotic resistance. Materials & methods: We performed N. gonorrhoeae multiantigen sequence typing and the N. gonorrhoeae sequence typing for antimicrobial resistance. Results: We identified mutations in genes conferring resistance to cephalosporins, macrolides, fluoroquinolones through por and tbpB loci, and we reported new combinations of already known alleles. N. gonorrhoeae resistance to ciprofloxacin was associated with C. trachomatis coinfection. Conclusion: This study's data proved the utility of a routine N. gonorrhoeae molecular characterization to monitor the evolution of antibiotic resistance and to detect the most effective clinical treatment.

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Correction: Length of stay following cesarean sections: A population based study in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (North-Eastern Italy), 2005-2015

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210753.].

Correction: Length of stay following vaginal deliveries: A population based study in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (North-Eastern Italy), 2005-2015

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204919.].

First urinary tract infections in children: the role of the risk factors proposed by the Italian recommendations

AIM

In 2009, the Italian society for paediatric nephrology suggested the need for cystography, following a first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI), only in children at high risk for dilating vesicoureteral reflux or in the event of a second infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of the risk factors proposed by the Italian guidelines.

METHODS

Children aged 2-36 months, managed by 10 Italian hospitals between 2009 and 2013, with a first febrile UTI were retrospectively evaluated.

RESULTS

Four hundred and fourteen children were included: 51% female, mean age eight months. Escherichia coli was responsible of 84% UTIs. 269 children (65%) presented at least one risk factor, thus were further investigated: 44% had a reflux. The presence of a pathogen other than E. coli significantly predicted high-grade reflux, both in the univariate (Odd Ratio 2.52, 95% Confidence Interval 1.32-4.81, p < 0.005) and multivariate analysis (OR 2.74, 95% CI: 1.39-5.41, p: 0.003). 26/145 children (18%) with no risk factors experienced a second UTI, which prompted the execution of cystography, showing a dilating reflux in 11.

CONCLUSION

Among the risk factors proposed by the Italian guidelines, only the presence of a pathogen other than E. coli significantly predicted reflux. Cystography can be postponed in children with no risk factors.

Monocyte-predominant engraftment, cytokine levels and early transplant-related complications in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell recipients

Myeloablative conditioning is a well‐established procedure that precedes hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), particularly in pediatric patients. In the period directly following transplantation, several factors may contribute to complications that lead to the activation or damage of endothelial cells, involved in the pathogenesis of vascular endothelial syndromes (VES). However, to date, sufficiently specific and sensitive diagnostic markers for the various forms of VES have not been identified. This was a retrospective single‐center study of patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT. For this cohort of patients, parameters including type of engraftment, donor characteristics, and cytokine production were measured and correlated with a high prevalence of short‐term complications after HSCT. The aim of this study was to identify specific parameters useful for improving diagnostics and predicting adverse effects in VES. We confirmed that monocyte‐predominant engraftment was related to a higher risk for an early transplant‐related complication termed sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS). The increased production of specific cytokines, in particular RANTES, represents a marker associated with prevalent engraftment. In addition, patients undergoing prophylaxis with defibrotide had “classical” engraftment, a common cytokine profile and a lower incidence of life‐threatening transplant‐related complications. The beneficial effect of defibrotide might be a starting point for developing selective prophylaxis for patients with monocyte engraftment to prevent severe early transplant‐related complications.

The onset of vascular endothelial syndromes after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is significantly associated with monocyte‐predominant engraftment (P < 0.0001). The increased production of specific cytokines, in particular RANTES, represents a marker associated with monocyte‐predominant engraftment. There is close association between the prophylactic administration of defibrotide, a powerful endothelial protector, and the incidence of vascular endothelial syndromes (P < 0.0001). Given the high cost of defibrotide, selective prophylaxis may be considered for patients with extremely high values of RANTES or with monocyte engraftment.

The lost children: The underdiagnosis of dyslexia in Italy. A cross-sectional national study

Background

Developmental dyslexia is one of the most common neurobehavioral disorders affecting children, but prevalence data on this condition are poor. The objective of the present study is to determine the prevalence of dyslexia in Italy in an unselected school population, using clearly defined diagnostic criteria and methods.

Methods

Cross-sectional study carried out in nine Italian Regions: two located in Northern Italy (Friuli Venezia Giulia and Veneto), three in Central Italy (Marche, Lazio and Umbria) and four in Southern Italy (Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia and Sardegna). Three consecutive levels of screening were carried out: the first two at school, to screen the population and identify children with suspect dyslexia; the last in centers with multi-professional staff specialized in learning disabilities to confirm the diagnosis. The key outcome measure is the prevalence of dyslexia, defined as the ratio between the number of children confirmed positive at the third level of screening and the total number of children enrolled in the study.

Results

We finally recruited 11094 children aged 8–10 years, of which 9964 constituted the final working sample after applying exclusion criteria and including only children who received parents’ consent to participate. The prevalence of dyslexia in the whole sample was 3.5% (95% CI 3.2–3.9%), with little differences between Northern, Central and Southern Italy (respectively 3.6%, 3.2% and 3.7%). In almost two out of three children with dyslexia the disorder had not been previously diagnosed.

Conclusions

This study confirms that in primary school children at the age of 8–10 years in Italy dyslexia is widely underestimated. Reliable data on dyslexia prevalence are needed to allocate necessary human and financial resources both to Health Services and Schools, ensuring timely support to children and families.

Age-Related Trends in the Diet of An Infant's Cohort in the Northeast of Italy from Six to Twelve Months of Age

Complementary feeding is recognized as an important predictor of health later in life and is likely to affect the development of food preferences. This paper describes age-related trends in terms of energy, nutrients intake and dietary habits of an Italian infant sub cohort (n = 152), enrolled in Trieste. Infant dietary data, collected using a food diary at 6, 9 and 12 months of age, were used to estimate energy and nutrients intake using the Italian food composition database. Age-related trends were calculated using Page's trend test. An increasing age-trend was observed in the percentages of contribution of macronutrients to total energy intake, with the exception of total lipids, which instead decreased over time. Most of the infants shared a low varied diet especially with regards to protein intake sources, represented mainly by dairy and meat products rather than pulses and fish. This could also account for the low intake of essential fatty acids (ω3) that play an important role in infant neurodevelopment. Moreover, non-commercial baby foods contributed more in terms of quantity, energy and macronutrients intake, compared with commercial products. Healthy eating habits should be encouraged during the first year of life, promoting a varied and well balanced diet at family level.

Length of stay following vaginal deliveries: A population based study in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (North-Eastern Italy), 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

Lengths of hospital stay (LoS) after childbirth that are too long have a number of health, social and economic drawbacks. For this reason, in several high-income countries LoS has been reduced over the past decades and early discharge (ED) is increasingly applied to low-risk mothers and newborns.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study investigating LoS after chilbirth across all 12 maternity centres of Friuli Venezia-Giulia (FVG), North-Eastern Italy, using a database capturing all registered births in the region from 2005 to 2015 (11 years). Adjusting for clinical factors (clinical conditions of the mother and the newborn), socio-demographic bakground and obstetric history with multivariable logistic regression, we ranked facility centres for LoS that were longer than our proposed ED benchmarks (defined as >2 days for spontaneous vaginal deliveries and >3 days for instrumental vaginal deliveries). The reference was hospital A, a national excellence centre for maternal and child health.

RESULTS

The total number of births examined in our database was 109,550, of which 109,257 occurred in hospitals. During these 11 years, the number of births significantly diminished over time, and the pooled mean LoS for spontaneous vaginal deliveries in the whole FVG was 2.9 days. There was a significantly decreasing trend in the proportion of women remaining admitted more than the respective ED cutoffs for both delivery modes. The percentage of women staying longer that the ED benchmarks varied extensively by facility centre, ranging from 32% to 97% for spontaneous vaginal deliveries and 15% to 64% for instrumental vaginal deliveries. All hospitals but G were by far more likely to surpass the ED cutoff for spontaneous deliveries. As compared with hospital A, the most significant adjusted ORs for LoS overcoming the ED thresholds for spontaneous vaginal deliveries were: 89.38 (78.49-101.78); 26.47 (22.35-31.36); 10.42 (9.49-11.44); 10.30 (9.45-11.21) and 8.40 (7.68-9.19) for centres B, D, I, K and E respectively. By contrast the OR was 0.77 (95%CI: 0.72-0.83) for centre G. Similar mitigated patterns were observed also for instrumental vaginal deliveiries.

CONCLUSIONS

For spontaneous vaginal deliveries the mean LoS in the whole FVG was shorter than 3.4 days, the average figure most recently reported for the whole of Italy, but higher than other countries' with health systems similar to Italy's. Since our results are controlled for the effect of all other factors, the between-hospital variability we found is likely attributable to the health care provider itself. It can be argued that some maternity centres of FVG may have had ecocomic interest in longer LoS after childbirth, although fear of medico-legal backlashes, internal organizational malfunctions of hospitals and scarce attention of ward staff on performance efficiency shall not be ruled out. It would be therefore important to ensure higher level of coordination between the various maternity services of FVG, which should follow standardized protocols to pursue efficiency of care and allow comparability of health outcomes and costs among them. Improving the performance of FVG and Italian hospitals requires investment in primary care services.

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions.

INTERPRETATION

TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Interstitial Fluid in Gynecologic Tumors and Its Possible Application in the Clinical Practice

Gynecologic cancers are an important cause of worldwide mortality. The interstitium consists of solid and fluid phases, situated between the blood vessels and cells. The interstitial fluid (IF), or fluid phase, is an extracellular fluid bathing and surrounding the tissue cells. The TIF (tumor interstitial fluid) is a dynamic fluid rich in lipids, proteins and enzyme-derived substances. The molecules found in the IF may be associated with pathological changes in tissues leading to cancer growth and metastatization. Proteomic techniques have allowed an extensive study of the composition of the TIF as a source of biomarkers for gynecologic cancers. In our review, we analyze the composition of the TIF, its formation process, the sampling methods, the consequences of its accumulation and the proteomic analyses performed, that make TIF valuable for monitoring different types of cancers.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education.

FINDINGS

Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19-2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46-3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06-1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04-1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20-28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes.

INTERPRETATION

Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cervico-vaginal secretion cytokine profile: A non-invasive approach to study the endometrial receptivity in IVF cycles

PROBLEM

Cytokines have a significant role in the process of embryo implantation, trophoblast growth, and differentiation by modulating the immune and endocrine system. The aim of this study was to investigate the profile of a large set of cytokines in the cervico-vaginal washing of women undergoing IVF, to explore the association of these proteins with a good receptive endometrium.

METHOD OF STUDY

A cohort of 155 women scheduled for IVF cycle was recruited. All patients were asymptomatic for genitourinary infections and had been screened for chlamydia, mycoplasma, and other bacterial infections. All IVF subjects were treated according to standard clinical and laboratory protocols. A panel of 48 immune factors was analyzed on cervico-vaginal washing, using magnetic bead-based multiplex immunoassays (Bio-Plex, BIO-RAD Laboratories, Milano, Italy).

RESULTS

A total of 99 patients reached embryo transfer, of which 31 had a clinical pregnancy. A pattern of four pro-inflammatory immune molecules, IL-12p40, IFN-a, MIF, and MCP3 (P < 0.001), was found significantly up-regulated in the cervico-vaginal fluid of women with clinical pregnancy. A significantly increased expression of IL-9, Gro_α , and SDF-1_α (P < 0.05) was observed in the presence of endometriosis, while high levels of IL-13 and L-15 were associated with ovulatory infertility factor (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In this pilot study, we demonstrated that the expression of specific cytokines in the cervico-vaginal washing on the day of oocyte retrieval might have a positive correlation with the potential clinical pregnancy. Therefore, cervico-vaginal secretion cytokine profiling might be a new, non-invasive approach to study the endometrial receptivity in IVF management.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.

METHODS

We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.

FINDINGS

Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2).

INTERPRETATION

With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.