Risk stratification of HPV-positive results using extended genotyping and cytology: Data from the baseline phase of the Onclarity trial

BACKGROUND

Optimizing the balance between colposcopy referrals and the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) during cervical cancer screening requires robust triage strategies. We evaluated the performance of extended HPV genotyping (xGT), in combination with cytology triage, and compared it to previously published performance data for high-grade CIN detection by HPV16/18 primary screening in combination with p16/Ki-67 dual staining (DS).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The baseline phase of the Onclarity trial enrolled 33,858 individuals, yielding 2978 HPV-positive participants. Risk values for ≥CIN3 were determined for Onclarity result groupings corresponding to HPV16, not HPV16 but HPV18 or 31, not HPV16/18/31 but HPV33/58 or 52, not HPV16/18/31/33/58/52 but HPV35/39/68 or 45 or 51 or 56/59/66 across all cytology categories. Published data from the IMPACT trial for HPV16/18 plus DS was utilized as a comparator during ROC analyses.

RESULTS

There were 163 ≥ CIN3 cases detected. The ≥CIN3 risk stratum hierarchy (% risk of ≥CIN3) that resulted from this analysis included: >LSIL (39.4%); HPV16, ≤LSIL (13.3%); HPV18/31, ≤LSIL (5.9%); HPV33/58/52/45, ASC-US/LSIL (2.4%); HPV33/58/52, NILM (2.1%); HPV35/39/68/51/56/59/66, ASC-US/LSIL (0.9%); and HPV45/35/39/68/51/56/59/66, NILM (0.6%). For ≥CIN3 ROC analysis, the optimal cutoff for sensitivity versus specificity was approximated between not HPV16 but HPV18 or 31, any cytology (≥CIN3 sensitivity = 85.9% and colposcopy-to- ≥ CIN3 = 7.4) and not HPV16/18/31 but HPV33/58/52, NILM (≥CIN3 sensitivity = 94.5% and colposcopy-to- ≥CIN3 = 10.8). HPV16/18 with DS triage showed a sensitivity of 94.3%, with a colposcopy-to- ≥ CIN3 ratio of 11.4.

CONCLUSIONS

xGT performed similarly compared to HPV primary screening plus DS for detection of high-grade CIN. xGT provides results that stratify risk in a flexible and reliable manner for colposcopy risk thresholds set by different guidelines or organizations.

The Brugada syndrome: risk stratification

Thirty years after its first description, the knowledge regarding Brugada syndrome has greatly increased. Spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern (BrECG) is a well-defined prognostic marker in asymptomatic patients and is associated with a double risk of arrhythmic events during follow-up as compared to drug-induced ECG pattern. Due to the extreme variability of the ECG pattern over time, the spontaneous type 1 BrECG must be carefully sought, not only through periodic ECGs but especially with repeated 12-lead 24-h Holter monitoring, with V1 and V2 electrodes placed also on the second and third intercostal space, in order to explore the right ventricular outflow tract. 12-lead 24-h Holter should also be performed in all the patients with a dubious BrECG pattern even before the drug challenge with sodium channel blockers, which carries a low but definite risk of complications. In addition to spontaneous type 1, other electrocardiographic markers of increased arrhythmic risk have been described, such as first-degree AV block, QRS fragmentation, S wave in lead I and II, and increased QRS duration. The electrophysiological study in asymptomatic patients with a spontaneous ECG Brugada pattern is still under jury and further studies need to clarify its precise role.

Development and validation of a survival prediction model and risk stratification for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

PURPOSE

We explored risk variables associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PNENs) and created a network dynamic nomogram model to predict patient survival time.

METHODS

A total of 7750 patients with PNENs were included in this analysis, including 134 with functional PNENs and 7616 with nonfunctional PNENs. Clinical feature and prognosis differences between functional and nonfunctional PNENs were compared. Independent prognostic factors affecting CSS were analyzed by univariate and multifactorial Cox regression. Nomogram and web-based prognosis prediction of PNENs were developed and validated by C indices, decision curve analysis, and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Patients with functional PNENs were younger at diagnosis than those with nonfunctional PNENs. Functional PNENs had better prognoses than nonfunctional PNENs (5-year survival rates: 78.55% and 71.10%, respectively). Univariate and multifactorial Cox regression analyses showed that tumor infiltration (T), nodal metastasis (N), metastasis (M), tumor site, differentiation grade, age, marital status, and surgical treatment were independent prognostic risk factors for CSS, which were included in the prognostic nomogram and web-based prognosis calculator. The calibration plots and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had excellent prediction and clinical practical ability. The C indices for CSS in the training and validation cohorts were 0.848 (95% CI 0.838-0.8578) and 0.823 (95% CI 0.807-0.839), respectively. We scored all patients according to the nomogram and divided patients into three different risk groups. The prognosis of the low-risk population was significantly better than those of the middle- and high-risk populations based on Kaplan-Meier survival curve.

CONCLUSION

We analyzed the clinical features of PNENs and developed a convenient and web dynamic nomogram to predict CSS.

Utility of serial conventional troponin testing for emergency department patients stratified by HEART score and symptom timing

BACKGROUND

The HEART score for risk stratifying chest pain patients in the emergency department (ED) has been widely adopted in clinical practice, but is often employed with nonconformant serial troponin measurements.

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective of this study was to examine the utility of obtaining a second conventional 3-h troponin I (TnI) level in ED patients presenting with potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stratified by HEART score and duration of symptoms.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult ED patients with a complete HEART score. We assessed the utility of repeat TnI measurement by examining the positivity rate of ΔTnI = [Second TnI] - [Initial TnI] stratified by HEART score and time elapsed since onset or resolution of symptoms. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) within 6 weeks of index visit were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 944 patients were included with 433 (45.9%) assigned a low risk HEART score 0-3. Of the 268 (61.9%) low risk HEART score patients receiving a second TnI, only 3 (1.1%, [0.2-3.2%]) resulted in a positive ΔTnI, one of which occurred in the setting of an elevated initial TnI. Overall, patients presenting within 3 h of symptoms were more likely to experience positive ΔTnI, index MACE and MACE at 6 weeks compared to patients presenting ≥3 h since symptoms onset/resolution and patients with unknown timing of symptoms (15.9% vs 11.0% vs 10.3%, p < 0.001; 10.0% vs 5.3% vs 4.6%, p = 0.021; 12.7% vs 6.6% vs 6.4%, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest serial measurement of conventional troponin provides limited added benefit in low risk HEART score patients, regardless of duration and timing of symptoms. Conversely, serial troponin measurement may confer utility in moderate/high risk HEART score patients, particularly those presenting within 3 h of symptoms.

Construction and validation of a novel prognostic signature for cutaneous melanoma based on ferroptosis-related genes

Ferroptosis, a recently uncovered iron-dependent, non-apoptotic cell death process, has been increasingly linked to cancer development. In this study, our objective was to develop a prognostic model centered on ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) and assess its efficacy as an overall survival (OS) prediction biomarker. We conducted a systematic analysis of cutaneous melanoma (CM) and devised a novel ferroptosis-related prognostic signature (FRGSig) using the TCGA database. An independent dataset from GSE65904 was employed to corroborate the validity of the FRGSig. Both univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were utilized to construct a FRGSig composed of five FRGs. mRNA expression and immunohistochemistry (IHC) analysis demonstrated that the expression of FRGSig genes varied between tumor and normal tissues. According to Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with elevated FRGsig scores faced a worse prognosis. The predictive accuracy of FRGSig was evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), with the area under the curve (AUC) values for 1, 3, and 5 OS at 0.682, 0.711, 0.735 in the TCGA cohort, and 0.662, 0.695, 0.712 in the validation dataset, respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated that FRGSig served as an independent prognostic factor. Further analysis revealed a significant relationship between FRGSig and Tumor Mutational Burden (TMB) as well as immune infiltration levels. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) disclosed functional disparities between high- and low-risk groups, suggesting that immune checkpoint-related pathways could be instrumental in the improved prognosis of the low-risk group. Taken together, the FRGSig has potential guidance for prognosis prediction and clinical treatment of CM.

Use of machine learning algorithms to predict life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia in sepsis

Aims

Life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (LTVAs) are common manifestations of sepsis. The majority of sepsis patients with LTVA are unresponsive to initial standard treatment and thus have a poor prognosis. There are very limited studies focusing on the early identification of patients at high risk of LTVA in sepsis to perform optimal preventive treatment interventions. We aimed to develop a prediction model to predict LTVA in sepsis using machine learning (ML) approaches.

Methods and results

Six ML algorithms including CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost were employed to perform the model fitting. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify key features. Methods of model evaluation involved in this study included area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), for model discrimination, calibration curve, and Brier score, for model calibration. Finally, we validated the prediction model both internally and externally. A total of 27 139 patients with sepsis were identified in this study, 1136 (4.2%) suffered from LTVA during hospitalization. We screened out 10 key features from the initial 54 variables via LASSO regression to improve the practicability of the model. CatBoost showed the best prediction performance among the six ML algorithms, with excellent discrimination (AUROC = 0.874) and calibration (Brier score = 0.157). The remarkable performance of the model was presented in the external validation cohort (n = 9492), with an AUROC of 0.836, suggesting certain generalizability of the model. Finally, a nomogram with risk classification of LTVA was shown in this study.

Conclusion

We established and validated a machine leaning-based prediction model, which was conducive to early identification of high-risk LTVA patients in sepsis, thus appropriate methods could be conducted to improve outcomes.

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment using a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker: a comparison with existing risk scores

Aims

This study aims to evaluate the ability of a deep-learning-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) retinal biomarker, Reti-CVD, to identify individuals with intermediate- and high-risk for CVD.

Methods and results

We defined the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), QRISK3, and modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Reti-CVD's prediction was compared to the number of individuals identified as intermediate- and high-risk according to standard CVD risk assessment tools, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to assess the results. In the UK Biobank, among 48 260 participants, 20 643 (42.8%) and 7192 (14.9%) were classified into the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to PCE, and QRISK3, respectively. In the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study, among 6810 participants, 3799 (55.8%) were classified as intermediate- and high-risk group according to modified FRS. Reti-CVD identified PCE-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.7%, 87.6%, 86.5%, and 84.0%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified QRISK3-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.6%, 85.5%, 49.9%, and 96.6%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the modified FRS with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.1%, 80.6%, 76.4%, and 85.5%, respectively.

Conclusion

The retinal photograph biomarker (Reti-CVD) was able to identify individuals with intermediate and high-risk for CVD, in accordance with existing risk assessment tools.

Development, validation, and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for personalized screening of gastric cancer in Chinese populations

BACKGROUND

Effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized endoscopic screening of gastric cancer (GC). We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate a questionnaire-based GC risk assessment tool for risk prediction and stratification in the Chinese population.

METHODS

In this three-stage multicenter study, we first selected eligible variables by Cox regression models and constructed a GC risk score (GCRS) based on regression coefficients in 416,343 subjects (aged 40-75 years) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, development cohort). In the same age range, we validated the GCRS effectiveness in 13,982 subjects from another independent Changzhou cohort (validation cohort) as well as in 5348 subjects from an endoscopy screening program in Yangzhou. Finally, we categorized participants into low (bottom 20%), intermediate (20-80%), and high risk (top 20%) groups by the GCRS distribution in the development cohort.

RESULTS

The GCRS using 11 questionnaire-based variables demonstrated a Harrell's C-index of 0.754 (95% CI, 0.745-0.762) and 0.736 (95% CI, 0.710-0.761) in the two cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year risk was 0.34%, 1.05%, and 4.32% for individuals with a low (≤ 13.6), intermediate (13.7~30.6), and high (≥ 30.7) GCRS, respectively. In the endoscopic screening program, the detection rate of GC varied from 0.00% in low-GCRS individuals, 0.27% with intermediate GCRS, to 2.59% with high GCRS. A proportion of 81.6% of all GC cases was identified from the high-GCRS group, which represented 28.9% of all the screened participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The GCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool for tailored endoscopic screening of GC in China. Risk Evaluation for Stomach Cancer by Yourself (RESCUE), an online tool was developed to aid the use of GCRS.

The pre-thyroidectomy surgeon's checklist. Recommendations of the AFC>E (Association francophone de chirurgie endocrinienne), with the SFE (Société française d'endocrinologie) and the SFMN (Société française de médecine nucléaire)

During the patient interview, signs of compression or invasion are sought out: dyspnea, dysphagia, dysphonia. The circumstances of discovery of the thyroid pathology are indicated. The surgeon must be closely acquainted with the EU-TIRADS and Bethesda classifications so as to be able to evaluate and explain to the patient the risk of malignancy. He must also be able to interpret a cervical ultrasound in view of proposing a procedure adapted to the pathology. Cervicothoracic CT-scan (or MRI) must be prescribed in the event of suspected plunging nodule or clinical/echography signs: non-palpable lower pole of the thyroid behind the clavicle, dyspnea, dysphagia, collateral circulation. The surgeon goes on to investigate possible relationships with adjacent organs, to evaluate extension toward the aortic arch and the positions (anterior, posterior or mixed) of the goiter, the objective being to determine the most adapted approach: classical cervicotomy, manubriotomy or sternotomy. Even in the event of a tumoral pathology, PET-FDG is not one of the imagery exams carried out systematically. Only in case of TSH < 0.5μU/mL should thyroid scintigraphy be proposed. Prior to any thyroid surgery, serum TSH levels, calcitoninemia and calcemia must be measured.

Subjective and objective survival prediction in mechanically ventilated critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

ICU risk assessment tools, routinely used for predicting population outcomes, are not recommended for evaluating individual risk. The state of health of single patients is mostly subjectively assessed to inform relatives and presumably to decide on treatment decisions. However, little is known how subjective and objective survival estimates compare.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study in mechanically ventilated critically ill patients across five European centres, assessed 62 objective markers and asked the clinical staff to subjectively estimate the probability of surviving 28 days.

RESULTS

Within the 961 included patients, we identified 27 single objective predictors for 28-day survival (73.8%) and pooled them into predictive groups. While patient characteristics and treatment models performed poorly, the disease and biomarker models had a moderate discriminative performance for predicting 28-day survival, which improved for predicting 1-year survival. Subjective estimates of nurses (c-statistic [95% CI] 0.74 [0.70-0.78]), junior physicians (0.78 [0.74-0.81]) and attending physicians (0.75 [0.72-0.79]) discriminated survivors from non-survivors at least as good as the combination of all objective predictors (c-statistic: 0.67-0.72). Unexpectedly, subjective estimates were insufficiently calibrated, overestimating death in high-risk patients by about 20% in absolute terms. Combining subjective and objective measures refined discrimination and reduced the overestimation of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjective survival estimates are simple, cheap and similarly discriminative as objective models; however, they overestimate death risking that live-saving therapies are withheld. Therefore, subjective survival estimates of individual patients should be compared with objective tools and interpreted with caution if not agreeing. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN59376582 , retrospectively registered October 31st 2013.

Feasibility of stone recurrence risk stratification using the recurrence of kidney stone (ROKS) nomogram

This study seeks to evaluate the recurrence of kidney stones (ROKS) nomogram for risk stratification of recurrence in a retrospective study. To do this, we analyzed the performance of the 2018 ROKS nomogram in a case-control study of 200 patients (100 with and 100 without subsequent recurrence). All patients underwent kidney stone surgery between 2013 and 2015 and had at least 5 years of follow-up. We evaluated ROKS performance for prediction of recurrence at 2- and 5-year via area under the receiver operating curve (ROC-AUC). Specifically, we assessed the nomogram's potential for stratifying patients based on low or high risk of recurrence at: a) an optimized cutoff threshold (i.e., optimized for both sensitivity and specificity), and b) a sensitive cutoff threshold (i.e., high sensitivity (0.80) and low specificity). We found fair performance of the nomogram for recurrence prediction at 2 and 5 years (ROC-AUC of 0.67 and 0.63, respectively). At the optimized cutoff threshold, recurrence rates for the low and high-risk groups were 20 and 45% at 2 years, and 50 and 70% at 5 years, respectively. At the sensitive cutoff threshold, the corresponding recurrence rates for the low and high-risk groups were of 16 and 38% at 2 years, and 42 and 66% at 5 years, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a recurrence-free advantage between the groups for both cutoff thresholds (p < 0.01, Fig. 2). Therefore, we believe that the ROKS nomogram could facilitate risk stratification for stone recurrence and adherence to risk-based surveillance protocols.

Avoiding Prostate Biopsies in Patients at Low Risk for Prostate Cancer: A Prospective Evaluation of a PSA-Density-Based Safety Net

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Decision-making to perform prostate biopsy should include individual risk assessment. Patients classified as low risk by the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator are advised to forego biopsy (PBx). There is concern about missing clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa). A clear pathway for follow-up is needed.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data for 111 consecutive patients were collected. Patients were encouraged to adhere to a PSA-density-based safety net after PBx was omitted. Cut off values indicating a re-evaluation were PSA density &gt;0.15 ng/mL/ccm in PBx-naïve patients and &gt;0.2 ng/mL/ccm in men with past-PBx. Primary endpoint was whether men had their PSA taken regularly. Secondary endpoint was whether a new multiparametric MRI was performed when PSA-density increased. Tertiary endpoint was whether biopsy was performed when risk stratification revealed an increased risk.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 12 months (IQR 9-15 months). The primary endpoint was reached by 97.2% (n = 106). The secondary endpoint was reached by 30% (n = 3). The tertiary endpoint was reached by 50% (n = 2). Histopathologic analyses revealed csPCa in none of these cases. Risk stratification did not change (p = 0.187) with the majority of patients (89.2%, n = 99).

CONCLUSION

The concern of missing csPCa when omitting PBx in the risk-stratified pathway may be negated. Changes in risk stratification during follow-up should lead to subsequent PBx. We suggest implementing a safety net based on PSA density and digital rectal examination (DRE).

[Common errors, pitfalls, and management of complications of prostate biopsy : The most common diagnostic and procedural challenges of transrectal fusion prostate biopsy in the initial diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer]

BACKGROUND

Transrectal (TR) prostate biopsy is the gold standard in diagnosis of prostate cancer (PC). It requires a precise and safe technique for sample acquisition.

OBJECTIVE

Several approaches will be discussed to avoid overdiagnosis, false-negative results, and complications of the procedure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed national and European guidelines, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, as well as prospective and retrospective studies to describe current trends in indication and performance of biopsies.

RESULTS

Incorporation of risk calculators and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) into daily routine reduces biopsy rates and results in a more precise diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPC). Combination of random- and MRI-fusion guided biopsy-but also extending the radius of sampling by 10 mm beyond the MRI lesion and a transperineal (TP) sampling approach - lead to a higher tumor-detection rate. Bleeding is the most common complication after prostate biopsy and is usually self-limiting. Postbiopsy infection rates can be reduced through TP biopsy.

CONCLUSION

TR MRI-fusion guided biopsy is a widely acknowledged tool in primary diagnostics of csPC. Higher detection rates and safety can be achieved through a TP sampling approach.

Prediction of new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation using a simple Nomogram

BACKGROUND

New onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common complication of cardiac surgery, with an incidence ranging from 15 to 50%. This study aimed to develop a new nomogram to predict POAF using preoperative and intraoperative risk factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 2108 consecutive adult patients (> 18 years old) who underwent cardiac surgery at our medical institution. The types of surgery included isolated coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery, combined valve and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), or aortic surgery. Logistic regression or machine learning methods were applied to predict POAF incidence from a subset of 123 parameters. We also developed a simple nomogram based on the strength of the results and compared its predictive ability with that of the CHA2DS2-VASc and POAF scores currently used in clinical practice.

RESULTS

POAF was observed in 414 hospitalized patients. Logistic regression provided the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) in the validation cohort. A simple bedside tool comprising three variables (age, left atrial diameter, and surgery type) was established, which had a discriminative ability with a ROC of 0.726 (95% CI 0.693-0.759) and 0.727 (95% CI 0.676-0.778) in derivation and validation subsets respectively. The calibration curve of the new model was relatively well-fit (p = 0.502).

CONCLUSIONS

Logistic regression performed better than machine learning in predicting POAF. We developed a nomogram that may assist clinicians in identifying individuals who are prone to POAF.

Role of surgery in neuroblastoma

Neuroblastoma is the most common malignant solid tumor handled by pediatric surgeons. It is well-known that neuroblastoma shows variable biological and clinical behaviors. In this review article, surgical strategy in neuroblastoma was described by risk stratification. Also, strategy of biopsy and clinical conditions that require special considerations such as neuroblastoma detected by mass screening, relapsed neuroblastoma, patients with stage MS and dumbbell type tumors was mentioned. As multimodal systemic treatments have been expanding, the role of surgery in neuroblastoma has become relatively less significant but requisite. We surgeons should decide therapeutic strategy based on the correct understanding of biology of neuroblastoma thinking of the better future of children.

A novel NHEJ gene signature based model for risk stratification and prognosis prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Non-homologous DNA end joining (NHEJ) is the predominant DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair pathway in human. However, the relationship between NHEJ pathway and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We aimed to explore the potential prognostic role of NHEJ genes and to develop an NHEJ-based prognosis signature for HCC.

METHODS

Two cohorts from public database were incorporated into this study. The Kaplan-Meier curve, the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, and Cox analyses were implemented to determine the prognostic genes. A NHEJ-related risk model was created and verified by independent cohorts. We derived enriched pathways between the high- and low-risk groups using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). CIBERSORT and microenvironment cell populations-counter algorithm were used to perform immune infiltration analysis. XRCC6 is a core NHEJ gene and immunohistochemistry (IHC) was further performed to elucidate the prognostic impact. In vitro proliferation assays were conducted to investigate the specific effect of XRCC6.

RESULTS

A novel NHEJ-related risk model was developed based on 6 NHEJ genes and patients were divided into distinct risk groups according to the risk score. The high-risk group had a poorer survival than those in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). Meanwhile, an obvious discrepancy in the landscape of the immune microenvironment also indicated that distinct immune status might be a potential determinant affecting prognosis as well as immunotherapy reactiveness. High XRCC6 expression level associates with poor outcome in HCC. Moreover, XRCC6 could promote HCC cell proliferation in vitro.

CONCLUSIONS

In brief, this work reveals a novel NHEJ-related risk signature for prognostic evaluation of HCC patients, which may be a potential biomarker of HCC immunotherapy.

Presence of retinopathy and incident kidney and cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes with normoalbuminuria - A post-hoc analysis of the PRIORITY randomized clinical trial

AIMS

Baseline diabetic retinopathy (DR) and risk of development of microalbuminuria, kidney function decline, and cardiovascular events (CVEs) in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Post-hoc analysis of the PRIORITY study including 1758 persons with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria followed for a median of 2.5 (IQR: 2.0-3.0) years. DR diagnosis included non-proliferative and proliferative abnormalities, macular oedema, or prior laser treatment. Cox models were fitted to investigate baseline DR presence with development of persistent microalbuminuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g); chronic kidney disease (CKD) G3 (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m²); and CVE. Models were adjusted for relevant risk factors.

RESULTS

At baseline, 304 (17.3 %) had DR. Compared to persons without DR, they were older (mean ± SD: 62.7 ± 7.7 vs 61.4 ± 8.3 years, p = 0.019), had longer diabetes duration (17.9 ± 8.4 vs. 10.6 ± 7.0 years, p < 0.001), and higher HbA_1c (62 ± 13 vs. 56 ± 12 mmol/mol, p < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios of DR at baseline for development of microalbuminuria (n = 197), CKD (n = 166), and CVE (n = 64) were: 1.50 (95%CI: 1.07, 2.11), 0.87 (95%CI: 0.56, 1.34), and 2.61 (95%CI: 1.44, 4.72), compared to without DR.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of DR in normoalbuminuric type 2 diabetes was associated with an increased risk of developing microalbuminuria and CVE, but not with kidney function decline.

Impact of New eGFR Equations on Risk Assessment In Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration working group has published new formulas for race-independent estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We investigated the old and new eGFR equations in patients transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis based on the data from a prospective registry of patients who underwent TAVI from January 2008 to May 2019. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality after TAVI, and the secondary endpoints included one- and three-year mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 1792 patients undergoing TAVI were included in the present analysis. The thirty-day mortality was 4.6 % (95 % CI 3.8-5.7 %), and the one- and three-year mortality were 17.5 % (95 % CI 15.7-19.4 %) and 34.4 % (95 % CI 32.0-37.0 %). After the application of the new eGFR formula, 12.0 % of patients were reclassified within the GFR category in CKD, while 13.2 % of patients were reclassified within the GFR categories of the EuroSCORE II. Hazard ratios for 30-day, one-year, and three-year mortality increased after introduction of the new creatine-based eq. (1.51, 1.52, 1.49 vs. 1.87, 1.79, 1.74, respectively). Compared to the old equation, the new eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m² had a better discrimination ability for the 30-day mortality (Harell's C: 0.563 (95 % CI 0.518-0.608) vs, 0.583 (95 % CI 0.546-0.636); delta Harell's C, 0.031 ± 0.022, p < 0.001). Similar findings were consistently observed in the cystatin creatinine-based equations.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of the new race-independent estimators of GFR results in the reassessment of renal function in a significant proportion of TAVI patients and may influence the risk stratification of this population.

Identifying optimal candidates for post-TIPS patients with HCC undergoing TACE: a multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model for post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria treated by transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

DESIGN

Between January 2013 and January 2020, 512 patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria who underwent TACE after TIPS were retrospectively recruited from 15 tertiary centers. Patients were randomly sorted into a training set (n = 382) and a validation set (n = 130). Medical data and overall survival were assessed. A prediction model was developed using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Predictive performance and discrimination were evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

Vascular invasion, log₁₀(AFP), 1/creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and log₁₀(ALT) were the most significant prognostic factors of survival. These five parameters were included in a new VACEA score. This score was able to stratify patients in the training set into four distinct risk grades whose median overall survival were 25.2, 15.1, 8.9, and 6.2 months, respectively. The 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year AUROC values and C-index of the VACEA model were 0.819, 0.806, 0.779, 0.825, and 0.735, respectively, and higher than those of other seven currently available models in both the training and validation sets, as well as in different subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The VACEA score could stratify post-TIPS patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria treated by TACE and help to identify candidates who benefit from this treatment.

KEY POINTS

• Vascular invasion, AFP, creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and ALT were independent significant prognostic factors of survival for HCC patients who underwent TACE after TIPS. • Our new model, named VACEA score, can accurately predict prognosis at the individual level and stratify patients into four distinct risk grades. • The VACEA model showed better prognostic discrimination and calibration than other current TACE-/TIPS-specific models Graphical abstract.

Prognostic models for estimating survival of salivary duct carcinoma: a population-based study

PURPOSE

In a large salivary duct carcinoma (SDC) cohort, we aimed to investigate the clinical factors influencing their survival outcomes and to further establish prognostic models.

METHODS

Data of patients with SDC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975-2019). A retrospective analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), and corresponding nomograms were established.

RESULTS

A steady upward trend in the incidence of SDC was observed over the past four decades. Totally, 399 patients (280 in the training set and 199 in the testing set) were enrolled. Advanced T stage, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and surgery were associated with favorable OS and DSS. Besides, age > 80 years exhibited worse OS. The selected variables above were used to construct nomograms and online web calculators that could accurately predict patient survival. In addition, risk stratification systems were generated to identify low- and high-risk patients. As the risk level increased, the risk of both patient mortality and disease-specific mortality increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The SDC incidence was low, but steadily increasing. The proposed prognostic models provided a robust and efficient approach to predict survival and risk stratification in SDC patients.

The importance of re-evaluating the risk score in heart failure patients: An analysis from the Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score database

BACKGROUND

The role of risk scores in heart failure (HF) management has been highlighted by international guidelines. In contrast with HF, which is intrinsically a dynamic and unstable syndrome, all its prognostic studies have been based on a single evaluation. We investigated whether time-related changes of a well-recognized risk score, the MECKI score, added prognostic value. MECKI score is based on peak VO₂, VE/VCO₂ slope, Na⁺, LVEF, MDRD and Hb.

METHODS

A multi-centre retrospective study was conducted involving 660 patients who performed MECKI re-evaluation at least 6 months apart. Based on the difference between II and I evaluation of MECKI values (MECKI II - MECKI I = ∆ MECKI) the study population was divided in 2 groups: those presenting a score reduction (∆ MECKI <0, i.e. clinical improvement), vs. patients presenting an increase (∆ MECKI >0, clinical deterioration).

RESULTS

The prognostic value of MECKI score is confirmed also when re-assessed during follow-up. The group with improved MECKI (366 patients) showed a better prognosis compared to patients with worsened MECKI (294 patients) (p < 0.0001). At 1st evaluation, the two groups differentiated by LVEF, V_E/VCO₂ slope and blood Na⁺ concentration, while at 2nd evaluation they differentiated in all 6 parameters considered in the score. The patients who improved MECKI score, improved in all components of the score but hemoglobin, while patients who worsened the score, worsened all parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that re-assessment of MECKI score identifies HF subjects at higher risk and that score improvement or deterioration regards several MECKI score generating parameters confirming the holistic background of HF.

External validation of the CRAX2MACE model

BACKGROUND

Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion is frequently used to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We performed an external validation of the CRAX2MACE score, developed to estimate 2-year risk of MACE in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Patients who underwent clinically indicated SPECT with available follow-up for MACE were included (N = 2,985). The prediction performance for MACE (revascularization, myocardial infarction, or death) within 2 years for CRAX2MACE was compared with stress and ischemic total perfusion deficit (TPD) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed with calibration plots, Brier score, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

MACE occurred within 2 years in 243 (8.1%) patients. The AUC for CRAX2MACE (0.710, 95% CI 0.677-0.743) was significantly higher compared to stress TPD (AUC 0.669, 95% CI 0.632-0.706, P = .010) and ischemic TPD (AUC 0.664, 95% CI 0.627-0.700, P < .001). The model had acceptable goodness-of-fit (P = .103) and was well-calibrated with Brier score of 0.071.

CONCLUSION

CRAX2MACE had higher predictive performance for 2-year MACE than quantitative perfusion in an external population. The current model is simple to use and could be implemented to assist physicians when estimating patient risk.

Use and Prognostic Implications of Cardiac Troponin in COVID-19

Myocardial injury is common in patients with COVID-19 and is associated with an adverse prognosis. Cardiac troponin (cTn) is used to detect myocardial injury and assist with risk stratification in this population. SARS-CoV-2 infection can play a role in the pathogenesis of acute myocardial injury due to both direct and indirect damage to the cardiovascular system. Despite the initial concerns about an increased incidence of acute myocardial infarction (MI), most cTn increases are related to chronic myocardial injury due to comorbidities and/or acute nonischemic myocardial injury. This review will discuss the latest findings on this topic.

Diagnostic performance of non-invasive liver fibrosis risk scores in biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients in India

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. India and other developing countries are witnessing an unprecedented rise in the prevalence of NAFLD. As part of population-level strategy, at primary healthcare, an efficient risk stratification is crucial to ensure appropriate and timely referral of individuals who require care at secondary and tertiary levels. The present study was conducted to assess the diagnostic performance of two non-invasive risk scores, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), in Indian patients of biopsy-proven NAFLD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients that reported to our center between 2009 and 2015. Clinical and laboratory data were collected and two non-invasive fibrosis scores, NFS and FIB-4 score, were calculated using the original formulas. Liver biopsy was utilized as gold standard for diagnosis of NAFLD, diagnostic performance was determined by plotting receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score.

RESULTS

The mean age of 272 patients included was 40 (11.85) years and 187 (79.24%) were men. We found that the AUROCs for FIB-4 score (0.634) was higher for any degree of fibrosis as compared to NFS (0.566). The AUROC for FIB-4 for advanced liver fibrosis was 0.640 (.550-.730). The performance of the scores for advanced liver fibrosis was comparable with overlapping confidence intervals for both scores.

CONCLUSION

The present study found an average performance of FIB-4 and NFS risk scores for detecting advanced liver fibrosis in Indian population. This study highlights the need for devising novel context-specific risk scores for efficient risk stratification of NAFLD patients in India.

Implantable Defibrillator-Detected Heart Failure Status Predicts Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

the prediction of ventricular tachyarrhythmias among patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators is difficult with available clinical tools. We sought to assess whether in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction with defibrillators, physiological sensor-based heart failure status, as summarized by the HeartLogic index, could predict appropriate device therapies.

METHODS

568 consecutive HF patients with defibrillators (n=158, 28%) or cardiac resynchronization therapy-defibrillators (n=410, 72%) were included in this prospective observational multicenter analysis. The association of both HeartLogic index and its physiological components with defibrillator shocks and overall appropriate therapies was assessed in regression and time-dependent Cox models.

RESULTS

Over a follow-up of 25 [15-35] months, 122 (21%) patients received an appropriate device therapy (shock, n=74, 13%), while the HeartLogic index crossed the threshold value (alert, HeartLogic ≥16) 1200 times (0.71 alerts/patient-year) in 370 (65%) subjects. The occurrence of ≥1 HeartLogic alert was significantly associated with both appropriate shocks (HR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.49-3.97, p=0.003), and any appropriate defibrillator therapies. In multivariable time-dependent Cox models, weekly IN-alert state was the strongest predictor of appropriate defibrillator shocks (HR: 2.94, 95%CI: 1.73-5.01, p<0.001) and overall therapies. Compared to stable patients, patients with appropriate shocks had significantly higher values of HeartLogic index, third heart sound amplitude, and resting heart rate 30-60 days prior to device therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The HeartLogic index is an independent dynamic predictor of appropriate defibrillator therapies. The combined index and its individual physiological components change before the arrhythmic event occurs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation and Other Atrial Dysrhythmias

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for systemic embolism and ischaemic stroke. Furthermore, AF-related strokes are associated with higher mortality, greater disability, longer hospital stays and lower rates of hospital discharge than strokes caused by other reasons. The aim of this review to summarise the existing evidence on the association of AF with ischemic stroke and provide insights on the pathophysiological mechanisms and the clinical management of patients with AF in order to reduce the burden of ischemic stroke.

RECENT FINDINGS

Beyond Virchow's triad, several pathophysiological mechanisms associated with structural changes in the left atrium, which may precede the identification of AF, may contribute to the increased risk of arterial embolism in AF patients. Individualised thromboembolic risk stratification based on CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and clinically relevant biomarkers provides essential tool towards a personalised holistic approach in thromboembolism prevention. Anticoagulation remains the cornerstone of stroke prevention moving from vitamin K antagonists (VKA) to safer non-vitamin K direct oral anticoagulants in the majority of AF patients. Despite the efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulation, still the equilibrium between thrombosis and haemostasis in AF patients remains suboptimal and future directions in anticoagulation and cardiac intervention may provide novel treatment options in stroke prevention. This review summarises the pathophysiologic mechanisms of thromboembolism, aiming the current and potential future perspectives in stroke prevention in AF patients.

Predicting all-cause mortality by means of a multisensor implantable defibrillator algorithm for heart failure monitoring

BACKGROUND

The HeartLogic algorithm (Boston Scientific) has proved to be a sensitive and timely predictor of impending heart failure (HF) decompensation.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine whether remotely monitored data from this algorithm could be used to identify patients at high risk for mortality.

METHODS

The algorithm combines implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD)-measured accelerometer-based heart sounds, intrathoracic impedance, respiration rate, ratio of respiration rate to tidal volume, night heart rate, and patient activity into a single index. An alert is issued when the index crosses a programmable threshold. The feature was activated in 568 ICD patients from 26 centers.

RESULTS

During median follow-up of 26 months [25th-75th percentile 16-37], 1200 alerts were recorded in 370 patients (65%). Overall, the time IN-alert state was 13% of the total observation period (151/1159 years) and 20% of the follow-up period of the 370 patients with alerts. During follow-up, 55 patients died (46 in the group with alerts). The rate of death was 0.25 per patient-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) IN-alert state and 0.02 per patient-year (95% CI 0.01-0.03) OUT of the alert state, with an incidence rate ratio of 13.72 (95% CI 7.62-25.60; P <.001). After multivariate correction for baseline confounders (age, ischemic cardiomyopathy, kidney disease, atrial fibrillation), the IN-alert state remained significantly associated with the occurrence of death (hazard ratio 9.18; 95% CI 5.27-15.99; P <.001).

CONCLUSION

The HeartLogic algorithm provides an index that can be used to identify patients at higher risk for all-cause mortality. The index state identifies periods of significantly increased risk of death.

Contrast computed tomography-based radiomics is correlation with COG risk stratification of neuroblastoma

PURPOSE

Although a risk stratification strategy for neuroblastoma (NB) has been proposed, precise and convenient clinical risk estimation remains challenging. This study aimed to investigate the correlation of contrast computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics with NB risk stratification.

METHODS

Patients with NB (n = 289) from two centers (244 and 45 patients in the training/testing and external validation cohorts, respectively) were divided into nonhigh- and high-risk groups. A total of 1648 radiomics features were extracted from the arterial phase, and the radiomics signature was constructed using rad scores, whereas the clinical model was established based on clinical factors. Further, a combined nomogram was developed based on the clinical factors and radiomics signatures. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to assess the performance of the established models.

RESULTS

Seventeen radiomics features were used to construct the radiomics signature. A significant difference was observed in the rad score between the two groups in the training (0.540 vs. 0.704, P < 0.001) and testing (0.563 vs. 0.969, P < 0.001) cohorts. The nomogram showed a higher area under the curve (AUC) in the training (AUC = 0.87), testing (AUC = 0.83), and external validation (AUC = 0.84) cohorts than other models. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves indicated that the nomogram fit perfectly. DCA demonstrated that the clinical-radiomics nomogram was more beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrast CT-based radiomics shows correlation with COG risk stratification of NB. Radiomics features combined with clinical factors showed the best performance, which may improve the management of patients with NB.

Performance of heart rate adjusted heart rate variability for risk stratification of sudden cardiac death

PURPOSE

As a non-invasive tool for the assessment of cardiovascular autonomic function, the predictive value of heart rate variability (HRV) for sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk stratification remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the performance of the individualized heart rate (HR) adjusted HRV (HRV_I) for SCD risk stratification in subjects with diverse risks.

METHODS

A total of 11 commonly used HRV metrics were analyzed in 192 subjects, including 88 healthy controls (low risk group), 82 hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients (medium risk group), and 22 SCD victims (high risk group). The relationship between HRV metrics and HR was examined with long-term and short-term analysis. The performance HRV_I was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and covariance of variation (CV).

RESULTS

Most of the HRV metrics were exponentially decayed with the increase of HR, while the exponential power coefficients were significantly different among groups. The HRV_I metrics discriminated low, medium and high risk subjects with a median AUC of 0.72[0.11], which was considerably higher than that of the traditional long-term (0.63[0.04]) and short-term (0.58[0.05]) HRV without adjustment. The average CV of the HRV_I metrics was also significantly lower than traditional short-term HRV metrics (0.09 ± 0.02 vs. 0.24 ± 0.13, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with diverse risks of SCD had similar exponential decay relationship between HRV metrics and HR, but with different decaying rates. HRV_I provides reliable and robust estimation for risk stratification of SCD.

["Asymptomatic WPW" : Is treatment necessary?]

The term "asymptomatic WPW" (Wolff-Parkinson-White) is often used as a synonym for ventricular pre-excitation of the WPW type due to an accessory pathway characterized by a short PR interval and a delta wave on the electrocardiogram (ECG) without the clinical occurrence of paroxysmal tachycardia. Asymptomatic WPW is often diagnosed in young and otherwise healthy people. There is a small associated risk of sudden cardiac death due to rapid antegrade conduction over the accessory pathway during atrial fibrillation. This paper highlights aspects of noninvasive and invasive risk stratification, therapy by catheter ablation, and the ongoing risk-benefit discussion in asymptomatic WPW.

[Systematic or targeted fusion-guided biopsy]

BACKGROUND

Early detection of prostate cancer (PCa) is associated with a high risk for detecting low-risk disease. In the primary biopsy indication, systematic biopsy leads to an increased detection of clinically insignificant PCa, and significant prostate cancers are not detected with sufficient sensitivity, especially without prior magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Similar data have recently become available for PCa screening.

OBJECTIVES

In light of the current literature, this article aims to discuss the data on systematic and combined targeted and systematic multiparametric MRI (mpMRI)-guided fusion biopsy to improve PCa diagnosis in clinically suspected cancer even in screening using multivariable risk stratification.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Literature review on mpMRI and MRI/TRUS fusion biopsy (TRUS: transrectal ultrasonography) for tumor detection in suspected prostate cancer and PCa screening was performed.

RESULTS

Multiparametric MRI as a reflex test after prostate-specific antigen (PSA) determination (PSA cut-off 4 ng/ml) in combination with targeted biopsy alone reduces the detection of clinically nonsignificant tumors in early detection by half. On the other hand, in the form of a target saturation or in combination with a systematic biopsy, the sensitivity for the detection of cancers of International Society of Urogenital Pathology (ISUP) grade groups 2 or higher can be improved. Similar results are also shown in PCa screening with a PSA cut-off of 3 ng/ml.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence for performing a targeted fusion biopsy alone is currently insufficient. Therefore, the combination of mpMRI-guided targeted and systematic biopsy continues to be the recommended standard for prostate cancer diagnosis.

Antibodies against neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) potentiate clinical performance of anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies in systemic lupus erythematosus

Autoantibodies against NETs (ANETA) are present in SLE patients. We aimed to determine the clinical relevance of ANETA in SLE. Serum from 129 SLE patients, 161 patients with various rheumatoid diseases (DC), and 53 healthy controls (HC) were tested by a home-made ANETA ELISA platform. ANETA showed a sensitivity of 35.7% and a specificity of 92.5%, respectively, in the diagnosis of SLE. The combination of ANETA with anti-dsDNA antibody increased the diagnostic sensitivity from 49.6% to 62.8% for SLE. The presence of ANETA potentiates the clinical utility of anti-dsDNA antibodies in identifying a subset of SLE patients with higher disease activity and hematological abnormalities. The binding of ANETA to NETs did not inhibit the immunostimulatory effect of NETs. Our findings suggested that ANETA have potential as clinically relevant biomarkers that potentiate the clinical performance of anti-dsDNA antibodies in the diagnosis, risk stratification and subtyping of patients with SLE.

Increased D-dimer level was a poor predictor of neuroblastoma, especially in the high-risk group

PURPOSE

D-dimer levels are associated with tumor progression and prognosis in various cancers. However, there are few research about the relationship between D-dimer and neuroblastoma (NB). This study assessed the relationships of D-dimer levels with clinical features and overall survival (OS) in patients with NB.

METHODS

Information about the clinical features of 365 patients and the prognosis of 301 patients was collected. The relationship between D-dimer levels and clinical features or OS was analyzed. We constructed the risk score based on Cox regression analysis and verified the predictive efficacy of the model through ROC curve and calibration curve.

RESULTS

The results showed that D-dimer levels were significantly increased in patients with nonmediastinal tumor, tumor larger than 10 cm, stage 3-4 disease, bone marrow metastasis, unfavorable histology, bone metastasis, NMYC amplification, and the high-risk group (all P < 0.05). The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that there were significant differences in 3- and 5-year OS (87.4% vs. 32.3%, 79.3% vs. 32.3%, P < 0.0001) between the low D-dimer and high D-dimer groups. In the high-risk group, the OS of high D-dimer was significantly lower than that of low D-dimer (P < 0.0001). All cases were divided into the training cohort (N = 211) and the validation cohort (N = 90). Multivariate analysis further suggested that D-dimer level, bone metastasis, and NMYC status were independent prognostic factors for OS (all P < 0.05). Based on the above three factors, we constructed the risk score in the training cohort. Survival analysis showed that compared with the other groups, the group with 11 scores had the worst prognosis (3-year OS 0%, P < 0.0001). The time-dependent ROC analysis and calibration curve indicated that the risk score had good accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with high D-dimer levels tended to have unfavorable clinical characteristics and poor prognosis.

V.I.P. Score: A Comprehensive Grading System to Predict Difficulty of HoLEP Procedure for Small-to-Moderate Sized Prostate (<120 ml)

OBJECTIVES

To develop a comprehensive scoring system in addition to the conventionally used prostatic volume (PV), for predicting the difficulty of holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) that may arise with small-to-moderate sized prostate.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 151 consecutive patients who underwent HoLEP and had a PV less than 120 ml. Based on previous literature, a difficult procedure was defined as a prolonged operative time (OT>90 min) in 88 cases, while the control group (OT≤90 min) consisted of 63 patients. The clinical data, including age, body mass index, PV, intravesical prostatic protrusion (IPP), prostate specific antigen (PSA), prostate specific antigen density, urinary tract infection, microscopic hematuria, prior biopsy, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of acute urinary retention, catheter dependency and use of antiplatelet / anticoagulation drugs or 5-alpha reductase inhibitor were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the two groups. Multivariate analysis identified three main independent predictors for difficulty, including volume (V) (60-90 ml OR=9.812, P<0.001) (≥90 ml OR=18.173, P=0.01), IPP (I) (OR=3.157, P=0.018), and PSA (P) (≥4 ng/ml OR=16.738, P<0.001). Therefore, a V.I.P. score was developed based on the regression model and ranged from 0 to 7 points. The area under the curve showed preferable predictive ability of the V.I.P. score compared to PV (0.906 versus 0.869).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a V.I.P. score that can accurately predict the difficulty of the HoLEP procedure for PV less than 120 ml in order to optimize clinical outcomes.

Combination of an implantable defibrillator multi-sensor heart failure index and an apnea index for the prediction of atrial high-rate events

AIMS

Patients with atrial fibrillation frequently experience sleep disorder breathing, and both conditions are highly prevalent in presence of heart failure (HF). We explored the association between the combination of an HF and a sleep apnoea (SA) index and the incidence of atrial high-rate events (AHRE) in patients with implantable defibrillators (ICDs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were prospectively collected from 411 consecutive HF patients with ICD. The IN-alert HF state was measured by the multi-sensor HeartLogic Index (>16), and the ICD-measured Respiratory Disturbance Index (RDI) was computed to identify severe SA. The endpoints were as follows: daily AHRE burden of ≥5 min, ≥6 h, and ≥23 h. During a median follow-up of 26 months, the time IN-alert HF state was 13% of the total observation period. The RDI value was ≥30 episodes/h (severe SA) during 58% of the observation period. An AHRE burden of ≥5 min/day was documented in 139 (34%) patients, ≥6 h/day in 89 (22%) patients, and ≥23 h/day in 68 (17%) patients. The IN-alert HF state was independently associated with AHRE regardless of the daily burden threshold: hazard ratios from 2.17 for ≥5 min/day to 3.43 for ≥23 h/day (P < 0.01). An RDI ≥ 30 episodes/h was associated only with AHRE burden ≥5 min/day [hazard ratio 1.55 (95% confidence interval: 1.11-2.16), P = 0.001]. The combination of IN-alert HF state and RDI ≥ 30 episodes/h accounted for only 6% of the follow-up period and was associated with high rates of AHRE occurrence (from 28 events/100 patient-years for AHRE burden ≥5 min/day to 22 events/100 patient-years for AHRE burden ≥23 h/day).

CONCLUSIONS

In HF patients, the occurrence of AHRE is independently associated with the ICD-measured IN-alert HF state and RDI ≥ 30 episodes/h. The coexistence of these two conditions occurs rarely but is associated with a very high rate of AHRE occurrence.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/Identifier: NCT02275637.

Clinically relevant combined effect of polygenic background, rare pathogenic germline variants, and family history on colorectal cancer incidence

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Summarised in polygenic risk scores (PRS), the effect of common, low penetrant genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC), can be used for risk stratification.

METHODS

To assess the combined impact of the PRS and other main factors on CRC risk, 163,516 individuals from the UK Biobank were stratified as follows: 1. carriers status for germline pathogenic variants (PV) in CRC susceptibility genes (APC, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2), 2. low (< 20%), intermediate (20-80%), or high PRS (> 80%), and 3. family history (FH) of CRC. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to compare odds ratios and to compute the lifetime incidence, respectively.

RESULTS

Depending on the PRS, the CRC lifetime incidence for non-carriers ranges between 6 and 22%, compared to 40% and 74% for carriers. A suspicious FH is associated with a further increase of the cumulative incidence reaching 26% for non-carriers and 98% for carriers. In non-carriers without FH, but high PRS, the CRC risk is doubled, whereas a low PRS even in the context of a FH results in a decreased risk. The full model including PRS, carrier status, and FH improved the area under the curve in risk prediction (0.704).

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrate that CRC risks are strongly influenced by the PRS for both a sporadic and monogenic background. FH, PV, and common variants complementary contribute to CRC risk. The implementation of PRS in routine care will likely improve personalized risk stratification, which will in turn guide tailored preventive surveillance strategies in high, intermediate, and low risk groups.

Cardiac index: A superior parameter of cardiac function than left ventricular ejection fraction in risk stratification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

An appropriate indicator of cardiac function in the risk stratification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients is urgently needed. Cardiac index that reflects cardiac pumping function may be suitable.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of reduced cardiac index in HCM patients.

METHODS

A total of 927 HCM patients were enrolled. The primary endpoint was cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoints were sudden cardiac death (SCD) and all-cause death. Combination models were constructed by adding reduced cardiac index and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the HCM risk-SCD model. Predictive accuracy was determined by C-statistics.

RESULTS

Reduced cardiac index was defined as cardiac index ≤2.42 L/min/m². During median follow-up of 4.3 years, 51 patients reached the endpoint. Reduced cardiac index independently increased the risk of cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.976; P = .007), SCD (aHR 6.385; P = .001), and all-cause death (aHR 2.428; P = .010). By adding reduced cardiac index to the HCM risk-SCD model, the model C-statistic increased from 0.691 to 0.762, with an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.021 (P = .018) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.560 (P = .007). The addition of reduced LVEF failed to improve the original model. Better predictive accuracy for all endpoints was also indicated in reduced cardiac index than in reduced LVEF.

CONCLUSION

Reduced cardiac index is an independent predictor of poor prognoses in HCM patients. Combining reduced cardiac index rather than reduced LVEF improved the HCM risk-SCD stratification strategy. The reduced cardiac index showed better predictive accuracy than reduced LVEF for all endpoints.

Limited Relevance of the Very Low Risk Prostate Cancer Classification in the Modern Era: Results from a Large Institutional Active Surveillance Cohort

Although the American Urological Association recently dropped the very low-risk (VLR) subcategory for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) and the European Association of Urology does not substratify low-risk PCa, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines still maintain this stratum, which is based on the number of positive biopsy cores, tumor extent in each core, and prostate-specific antigen density. This subdivision may be less applicable in the modern era in which imaging-targeted prostate biopsies are common practice. In our large institutional active surveillance cohort of patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2020 (n = 1276), the number of patients meeting NCCN VLR criteria decreased significantly in recent years, with no patient meeting VLR criteria after 2018. By contrast, the multivariable Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score effectively substratified patients over the same period and was predictive of upgrading on repeat biopsy to Gleason grade group ≥2 on multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.39; p < 0.01), independent of age, genomic test results, and magnetic resonance imaging findings. These findings suggest that the NCCN VLR criteria are less applicable in the targeted biopsy era, and that the CAPRA score or similar instruments are better contemporary risk stratification tools for men on active surveillance. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated whether the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification of very low risk (VLR) for prostate cancer is relevant in the modern era. We found that in a large group of patients on active surveillance, no man diagnosed after 2018 satisfied the VLR criteria. However, the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score discriminated patients by cancer risk at diagnosis and was predictive of outcomes on active surveillance, and thus may be a more relevant classification scheme in the modern era.

Harmonizing Definitions for Diagnostic Criteria and Prognostic Assessment of Transplantation-Associated Thrombotic Microangiopathy: A Report on Behalf of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy, Asia-Pacific Blood and Marrow Transplantation Group, and Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research

Transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is an increasingly recognized complication of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, TA-TMA is a clinical diagnosis, and multiple criteria have been proposed without universal application. Although some patients have a self-resolving disease, others progress to multiorgan failure and/or death. Poor prognostic features also are not uniformly accepted. The lack of harmonization of diagnostic and prognostic markers has precluded multi-institutional studies to better understand incidence and outcomes. Even current interventional trials use different criteria, making it challenging to interpret the data. To address this urgent need, the American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy, Center for International Bone Marrow Transplant Research, Asia-Pacific Blood and Marrow Transplantation, and European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation nominated representatives for an expert panel tasked with reaching consensus on diagnostic and prognostic criteria. The panel reviewed literature, generated consensus statements regarding diagnostic and prognostic features of TA-TMA using the Delphi method, and identified future directions of investigation. Consensus was reached on 4 key concepts: (1) TA-TMA can be diagnosed using clinical and laboratory criteria or tissue biopsy of kidney or gastrointestinal tissue; however, biopsy is not required; (2) consensus diagnostic criteria are proposed using the modified Jodele criteria with additional definitions of anemia and thrombocytopenia. TA-TMA is diagnosed when ≥4 of the following 7 features occur twice within 14 days: anemia, defined as failure to achieve transfusion independence despite neutrophil engraftment; hemoglobin decline by ≥1 g/dL or new-onset transfusion dependence; thrombocytopenia, defined as failure to achieve platelet engraftment, higher-than-expected transfusion needs, refractory to platelet transfusions, or ≥50% reduction in baseline platelet count after full platelet engraftment; lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) exceeding the upper limit of normal (ULN); schistocytes; hypertension; soluble C5b-9 (sC5b-9) exceeding the ULN; and proteinuria (≥1 mg/mg random urine protein-to-creatinine ratio [rUPCR]); (3) patients with any of the following features are at increased risk of nonrelapse mortality and should be stratified as high-risk TA-TMA: elevated sC5b-9, LDH ≥2 times the ULN, rUPCR ≥1 mg/mg, multiorgan dysfunction, concurrent grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), or infection (bacterial or viral); and (4) all allogeneic and pediatric autologous HCT recipients with neuroblastoma should be screened weekly for TA-TMA during the first 100 days post-HCT. Patients diagnosed with TA-TMA should be risk-stratified, and those with high-risk disease should be offered participation in a clinical trial for TA-TMA-directed therapy if available. We propose that these criteria and risk stratification features be used in data registries, prospective studies, and clinical practice across international settings. This harmonization will facilitate the investigation of TA-TMA across populations diverse in race, ethnicity, age, disease indications, and transplantation characteristics. As these criteria are widely used, we expect continued refinement as necessary. Efforts to identify more specific diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers are a top priority of the field. Finally, an investigation of the impact of TA-TMA-directed treatment, particularly in the setting of concurrent highly morbid complications, such as steroid-refractory GVHD and infection, is critically needed.

Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society derived three- and four-strata risk stratification models in pulmonary arterial hypertension: introducing an internet-based risk stratification calculator

Aims

Estimation of prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been influenced by that various risk stratification models use different numbers of prognostic parameters, as well as the lack of a comprehensive and time-saving risk assessment calculator. We therefore evaluated the various European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-/European Respiratory Society (ERS)-based three- and four-strata risk stratification models and established a comprehensive internet-based calculator to facilitate risk assessment.

Methods and results

Between 1 January 2000 and 26 July 2021, 773 clinical assessments on 169 incident PAH patients were evaluated at diagnosis and follow-ups. Risk scores were calculated using the original Swedish Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Registry (SPAHR)/Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) three-strata model, the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, and the simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata model. The original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models were tested for both 3-6 and 7-11 available parameters, respectively. Prognostic accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC)] and Uno's cumulative/time-dependent C-statistics (uAUC) were calculated for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At baseline, both the original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models, using up to six parameters, provided the highest accuracy (uAUC = 0.73 for both models) in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At follow-ups, the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk (7-11 parameters) provided the highest accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality (uAUC = 0.90), followed by the original SPAHR/COMPERA model (7-11 parameters) (uAUC = 0.88) and the COMPERA 2.0 model (uAUC = 0.85).

Conclusions

The present study facilitates risk assessment in PAH by introducing a comprehensive internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification). At baseline, utilizing the original or the updated SPAHR models using up to six parameters was favourable, the latter model additionally offering sub-characterization of the intermediate risk group. Our findings support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' strategy for risk stratification suggesting the utilization of a three-strata model at baseline and a simplified four-strata model at follow-ups. Our findings furthermore support the utility of the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk, when a more comprehensive assessment is needed at follow-ups, complementing the three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 model. Larger multi-centre studies are encouraged to validate the utility of the updated SPAHR model.

Take home message

By introducing an internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification), risk assessment is facilitated. Our results support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' risk stratification strategy, additionally suggesting the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, as a promising complement to the new simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata strategy, when a more comprehensive overview is needed.

The Impact of MOMENTUM 3 Trial Eligibility on Left Ventricular Assist Device Outcomes: A Real-World Experience

INTRODUCTION

Although the landmark MOMENTUM 3 trial was associated with excellent short-term left ventricular assist device (LVAD) outcomes, many end-stage heart failure patients would not have met the trial eligibility criteria. Moreover, the outcomes of trial ineligible patients are poorly characterized. Therefore, we undertook this study to compare MOMENTUM 3 eligible and ineligible patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of all primary LVAD implants from 2017 to 2022. Primary stratification was according to MOMENTUM 3 inclusion and exclusion criteria. Primary outcome was survival. Secondary outcomes included complications and length of stay. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed to further characterize outcomes.

RESULTS

From 2017 to 2022, 96 patients underwent primary LVAD implantation. Thirty-seven (38.54%) patients were trial eligible while 59 (61.46%) were ineligible. When stratified by trial eligibility, patients who were trial eligible had higher 1-year (80.15% versus 94.52%, P = 0.04) and 2-year survival (70.17% versus 94.52%, P = 0.02). Multivariable analysis showed that trial eligibility was protective of mortality at both 1 y (HR: 0.19 [0.04-0.99], P = 0.049) and 2 y (HR: 0.17 [0.03-0.81], P = 0.03). Although the groups had similar rates of bleeding, stroke, and right ventricular failure, trial ineligibility was associated with a longer periprocedural length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the majority of contemporary LVAD patients would not have been eligible for the MOMENTUM 3 trial. Ineligible patients have decreased but acceptable short-term survival. Our findings suggest that a simply reductionist approach to short-term mortality may improve outcomes but fail to capture the majority of patients who could benefit from therapy.

Identification of stage I/II melanoma patients at high risk for recurrence using a model combining clinicopathologic factors with gene expression profiling (CP-GEP)

PURPOSE

Patients with cutaneous melanoma stage I/IIA disease are currently not eligible for adjuvant therapy, despite their risk for relapses and death. This study validates the ability of a model combining clinicopathologic factors with gene expression profiling (CP-GEP) to identify patients at high risk for disease recurrence in stage I/II and subgroup stage I/IIA.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

543 patients with stage I/II primary cutaneous melanoma from the University of Tuebingen diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 were analysed. All patients received sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Analysis was conducted for a separate group of 80 patients who did not undergo SLNB.

RESULTS

CP-GEP stratified 424 stage I/IIA patients (78% of the cohort) according to their risk for recurrence, with five-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rates of 77.8% and 93% for CP-GEP high risk (195 patients) and low risk (229 patients), respectively, and hazard ratio of 3.53 (p-value <0.001). In patients who did not receive SLNB biopsy, CP-GEP captured 6 out of 7 relapses.

CONCLUSION

CP-GEP can be used to identify primary cutaneous melanoma patients with a high risk for disease recurrence - especially for stage I/IIA, who are considered low risk by AJCC 8th. These patients may benefit from adjuvant therapy. Also, in the future, when SLNB may become irrelevant, CP-GEP may serve as a risk stratification tool.

Challenges to recognising patients at risk of out-of-hospital clinical deterioration

BACKGROUND

The acute derangement of physiological function is a time-critical medical emergency requiring prompt recognition. As autonomous practitioners in resource scarce, high-risk environments, clinical deterioration can impose complex and increased clinical demands on paramedics. Early recognition is imperative to facilitating proactive responses to mitigate adverse effects. This study aimed to determine if clinicians can meet consensus regarding meaningful clinical factors for recognising to out-of-hospital (OOH) clinical deterioration risk.

METHODS

A three-round electronic Delphi study was conducted between June 2020 and January 2021. The expert panel was composed of 30 clinicians, including paramedics and emergency physicians. Participants were presented with eight clinically diverse case vignettes addressing various clinical factors related to OOH clinical deterioration.

RESULTS

Participants identified various challenges related to the recognition of OOH clinical deterioration. Although participants were able to meet consensus on most clinical factors related to deterioration, consensus was not achieved where cases had a combination of factors including: medical aetiology, subtle vital sign changes, non-specific complaints, age-extreme patients, and presence of co-morbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that clinicians face various challenges to recognising clinical deterioration in the OOH setting. Better understanding these challenging patient cohorts could assist to increase awareness and improve early recognition of OOH clinical deterioration.

Risk stratification using anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) in polyarticular subtypes of juvenile idiopathic arthritis in adulthood

OBJECTIVES

Polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pJIA) is a subset of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), divided into two subtypes according to the presence of rheumatoid factor: pJIA without rheumatoid factor (pJIA RF-) and pJIA with positive rheumatoid factor (pJIA RF+), this latter is characterised with more structural damage. Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) are often associated with RF. The respective performance of ACPA versus RF in structural outcome in pJIA, and in particular in adulthood pJIA remains unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine whether ACPA could be of value to assess structural damage in pJIA persisting in adulthood.

METHODS

Patients with pJIA and available data for ACPA, RF and X-ray were included retrospectively. Structural damage was assessed by two independent blinded investigators using Sharp Van Der Heijde scores.

RESULTS

56 pJIA adult patients were included: 62% (35/56) had pJIA RF+ and 38% (21/56) pJIA RF-. ACPA positivity in pJIA was significantly associated with presence of RF (96% vs 26%, P<0.001). RF positivity was significantly associated with higher Sharp van Der Heijde erosion and total scores (respectively P<0.01 and P<0.05). There were higher Sharp Van Der Heijde erosion, joint space narrowing and total scores in the pJIA ACPA+ subgroup than in the pJIA ACPA- subgroup, although there was no statistical significance. However, when adjusted on disease duration, pJIA ACPA+ patients had significantly higher erosion and total scores than pJIA ACPA- patients (P<0.05), and pJIA ACPA+ patients required more bDMARDs than pJIA ACPA- patients (P<0.05). Moreover, pJIA patients with high Sharp van Der Heijde joint space narrowing and total scores had significantly higher ACPA levels (P<0.01). A correlation was identified between ACPA levels and Sharp van Der Heijde total score (r=0.54, P<0.05). In the pJIA RF+ subgroup the presence of ACPA was associated with additional structural damage compared to no ACPA: sharp Van Der Heijde erosion, joint space narrowing and total scores were higher in the pJIA RF+ ACPA+ subgroup than in the pJIA RF+ ACPA- subgroup although these results did not reach significance.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that pJIA RF+ ACPA+ adult patients may have a more severe articular phenotype than pJIA RF+ ACPA- patients. ACPA could bring an additional value to RF for pJIA patients regarding structural damage. Altogether our results show that RF and ACPA are associated with structural damage measured by Sharp Van Der Heijde score in pJIA persisting in adulthood.

The coronavirus disease pandemic among adult congenital heart disease patients and the lessons learnt - results of a prospective multicenter european registry

Background

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, professionals in charge of particularly vulnerable populations, such as adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients, were confronted with difficult decision-making. We aimed to assess changes in risk stratification and outcomes of ACHD patients suffering from COVID-19 between March 2020 and April 2021.

Methods and results

Risk stratification among ACHD experts (before and after the first outcome data were available) was assessed by means of questionnaires. In addition, COVID-19 cases and the corresponding patient characteristics were recorded among participating centres. Predictors for the outcome of interest (complicated disease course) were assessed by means of multivariable logistic regression models calculated with cluster-robust standard errors. When assessing the importance of general and ACHD specific risk factors for a complicated disease course, their overall importance and the corresponding risk perception among ACHD experts decreased over time. Overall, 638 patients (n = 168 during the first wave and n = 470 during the subsequent waves) were included (median age 34 years, 52% women). Main independent predictors for a complicated disease course were male sex, increasing age, a BMI >25 kg/m2, having ≥2 comorbidities, suffering from a cyanotic heart disease or having suffered COVID-19 in the first wave vs. subsequent waves.

Conclusions

Apart from cyanotic heart disease, general risk factors for poor outcome in case of COVID-19 reported in the general population are equally important among ACHD patients. Risk perception among ACHD experts decreased during the course of the pandemic.

Stratifying risk for onset of type 1 diabetes using islet autoantibody trajectory clustering

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Islet autoantibodies can be detected prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes and are important tools for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening. Current risk stratification models rely on the positivity status of islet autoantibodies alone, but additional autoantibody characteristics may be important for understanding disease onset. This work aimed to determine if a data-driven model incorporating characteristics of islet autoantibody development, including timing, type and titre, could stratify risk for type 1 diabetes onset.

METHODS

Data on autoantibodies against GAD (GADA), tyrosine phosphatase islet antigen-2 (IA-2A) and insulin (IAA) were obtained for 1,415 children enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study with at least one positive autoantibody measurement from years 1 to 12 of life. Unsupervised machine learning algorithms were trained to identify clusters of autoantibody development based on islet autoantibody timing, type and titre. Risk for type 1 diabetes across each identified cluster was evaluated using time-to-event analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 2-4 clusters in each year cohort that differed by autoantibody timing, titre and type. During the first 3 years of life, risk for type 1 diabetes onset was driven by membership in clusters with high titres of all three autoantibodies (1-year risk: 20.87-56.25%, 5-year risk: 67.73-69.19%). Type 1 diabetes risk transitioned to type-specific titres during ages 4 to 8, as clusters with high titres of IA-2A (1-year risk: 20.88-28.93%, 5-year risk: 62.73-78.78%) showed faster progression to diabetes compared with high titres of GADA (1-year risk: 4.38-6.11%, 5-year risk: 25.06-31.44%). The importance of high GADA titres decreased during ages 9 to 12, with clusters containing high titres of IA-2A alone (1-year risk: 14.82-30.93%) or both GADA and IA-2A (1-year risk: 8.27-25.00%) demonstrating increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This unsupervised machine learning approach provides a novel tool for stratifying risk for type 1 diabetes onset using multiple autoantibody characteristics. These findings suggest that age-dependent changes in IA-2A titres modulate risk for type 1 diabetes onset across 12 years of life. Overall, this work supports incorporation of islet autoantibody timing, type and titre in risk stratification models for aetiologic studies, prevention trials and disease screening.

External validation of COMPASS and BIOSCOPE prognostic scores in colorectal peritoneal metastases treated with cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC)

INTRODUCTION

The selection of patients undergoing cytoreductive- surgery (CRS) followed by hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) is crucial. BIOSCOPE and COMPASS are prognostic scores designed to stratify survival into four classes according to clinical and pathological features. The purpose of this study is to analyze the prognostic role of these scores using a large cohort of patients as an external reference.

METHODS

Overall survival analysis was performed using Log-Rank and Kaplan-Meier curves for each score. The probability of survival at 12, 36, and 60 months was tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

From the validation cohort of 437 patients, the analysis included 410 patients in the COMPASS group and 364 patients in the BIOSCOPE group (100% data completeness). We observed a different patient distribution between classes (high-risk for BIOSCOPE compared to COMPASS, p = 0.0001). Nevertheless, both COMPASS and BIOSCOPE effectively stratified overall survival (Log-Rank, p = 0.0001 in both cases), with a lack of discrimination between COMPASS classes II and III (p = n.s.). COMPASS at 12 m and BIOSCOPE at 60 m showed the best performance in terms of survival prediction (AUC of 0.82 and 0.81). The specificity of the two tests is good (median 81.3%), whereas sensibility is quite low (median 64.2%).

CONCLUSION

Following external validation in a large population of patients with CRC-PM who are eligible for surgery, the COMPASS and BIOSCOPE scores exhibit high inter-test variability but effectively stratify cancer-related mortality risk. While the quality of the scores is similar, BIOSCOPE shows better inter-tier differentiation, suggesting that tumor molecular classification could improve test discrimination capability. More powerful stratification scores with the inclusion of novel predictors are needed.

Differences in cardiac testing resource utilization using two different risk stratification schemes

OBJECTIVE

Assess whether changing an emergency department (ED) chest pain pathway from utilizing the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score for risk stratification to an approach utilizing the History, EKG, Age, Risk, Troponin (HEART) score was associated with reductions in healthcare resource utilization.

METHODS

A retrospective, quasi-experimental study using difference-in-differences and interrupted time series specifications evaluated all ED patients with a chest pain encounter from 8/2015 to 7/2019 at a large academic medical center. We included patients age ≥ 18 with negative troponin testing discharged from the ED. Our standardized care pathway utilized TIMI for risk stratification until 09/2017 and HEART thereafter. We evaluated patients undergoing hospital-based cardiac diagnostic testing (CDT), length of stay (LOS), and 30-day Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) at the intervention site before and after the pathway change and compared these outcomes to a similar control site within the health system for the difference-in-differences specification.

RESULTS

During the study period, 6.3% (450 of 7117) of patients in the TIMI cohort and 7.2% (546 of 7623) in the HEART cohort among 400,965 total ED visits underwent CDT. In a multivariable analysis, transition to the HEART pathway was associated with greater odds of receiving CDT (odds ratio 2.88 [95% CI 1.21 to 6.86]), a reduction in LOS of 34 min (95% CI 2.2 to 67.6), and no significant difference in 30-day MACE.

CONCLUSION

The transition from TIMI to HEART was associated with mixed consequences for healthcare resource utilization, including increased CDT but reduced length of stay.