Maternal stress and sex ratio at birth in Sweden over two and a half centuries: a retest of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis

STUDY QUESTION

Is there a negative relationship, as predicted in the Trivers–Willard hypothesis (TWH), between the intensity of maternal stress and sex ratio at birth (SRB)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Using a comprehensive data set with multiple indicators of maternal stress, most measures of stress show no statistically significant association with SRB over a period spanning 243 years, indicating no support for the TWH.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Evolutionary biologists have proposed a widely discussed hypothesis that women in poor and stressful conditions during pregnancy are more likely to give birth to girls, and exposure to stressful events may therefore lead to a reduction in sex (male-to-female) ratio at birth. The empirical evidence so far is mixed.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Annual time series data, spanning 243 years between 1749 and 1991 for Sweden at the national level, were drawn from multiple sources. The outcome is defined as the percentage of male births relative to all births in Sweden in a given year. The covariates include a set of economic and climatic variables as proxies for maternal stress.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We conduct a series of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models to examine the relationship between maternal stress and SRB during three periods: 1749–1991, 1749–1861 and 1862–1991.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

In 1749–1991, economic proxies for maternal stress showed no statistically significant association with SRB. In 1749–1861, two indicators were significantly associated with SRB, but the coefficients were opposite in direction to the TWH. In 1862–1991, five out of six covariates showed no significant association with SRB. An additional analysis found no significant correlation between sex ratio of stillbirths and all covariates in 1862–1991. Our results are incompatible with the TWH and suggest that previous findings in support of the TWH are not robust.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

This study provides population-level evidence that may not necessarily reflect the nature of all individuals due to the ecological fallacy. The time series analysed in this study are annual data, and we cannot examine the potential seasonality due to the lack of disaggregated monthly data. Our findings may not be generalised to the contexts of extreme maternal stress conditions such as famine and war.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The results from existing studies in this topic may be speculative, and additional research with more comprehensive design, data and covariates is needed to reconsider the robustness of previous findings.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The author receives no external funding and has no conflict of interest to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

The Burden of Alzheimer's Disease Mortality in the United States, 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD), along with the associated burden on healthcare systems, presents a substantial public health challenge.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate trends in AD mortality and the relevant burden across the United States (U.S.) from 1999 to 2018 and to predict mortality trends between 2019 and 2023.

METHODS

Data on AD-related deaths between 1999 and 2018 were collected from the WONDER database administered by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze mortality trends due to AD. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated to explore the burden of AD deaths. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast mortality trends from 2019 to 2023.

RESULTS

Over a recent 20-year period, the number of AD deaths in the U.S. increased from 44,536 (31,145 females and 13,391 males) to 122,019 (84,062 females and 37,957 males). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 16.5/100,000 in 1999 to 30.5/100,000 in 2018. AD mortality is projected to reach 42.40/100000 within the year 2023. Overall, AD resulted in 322,773.00 YLL (2.33 per 1000 population) in 1999 and 658,501.87 YLL (3.68 per 1000 population) in 2018.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate an increase in AD mortality in the U.S. from 1999 to 2018 as well as a rapid increase from 2019 to 2023. The high burden of AD deaths emphasizes the need for targeted prevention, early diagnosis, and hierarchical management.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Morbidity in China Using An Advanced Exponential Smoothing State Space TBATS Model

Objective

The high morbidity, complex seasonality, and recurring risk of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) exert a major burden in China. Forecasting its epidemic trends is greatly instrumental in informing vaccine and targeted interventions. This study sets out to investigate the usefulness of an advanced exponential smoothing state space framework by combining Box-Cox transformations, Fourier representations with time-varying coefficients and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error correction (TBATS) method to assess the temporal trends of HFMD in China.

Methods

Data from January 2009 to December 2019 were drawn, and then they were split into two segments comprising the in-sample training data and out-of-sample testing data to develop and validate the TBATS model, and its fitting and forecasting abilities were compared with the most frequently used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method.

Results

Following the modelling procedures of the SARIMA and TBATS methods, the SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ and TBATS (0.024, {1,1}, 0.855, {<12,4>}) specifications were recognized as being the optimal models, respectively, for the 12-step ahead forecasting, along with the SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ and TBATS (0.062, {1,3}, 0.86, {<12,4>}) models as being the optimal models, respectively, for the 24-step ahead forecasting. Among them, the optimal TBATS models produced lower error rates in both 12-step and 24-step ahead forecasting aspects compared to the preferred SARIMA models. Descriptive analysis of the data showed a significantly high level and a marked dual seasonal pattern in the HFMD morbidity.

Conclusion

The TBATS model has the capacity to outperform the most frequently used SARIMA model in forecasting the HFMD incidence in China, and it can be recommended as a flexible and useful tool in the decision-making process of HFMD prevention and control in China.

Using past performance to improve future clinical outcomes in pressure ulcer prevention

OBJECTIVE

Episodes of inpatient care-related pressure ulcers (PU) lead to deleterious effects on patient quality of life, and additional costs associated with wound dressings, staff visits and hospitalisation. Accurate prediction of future incidence may be helpful in defining strategies for benchmarking and resource management. Observations of category 2 or above PUs during episodes of care at an NHS Foundation Trust were recorded monthly from 2010 to 2020. Trust-specific interventions designed to reduce PU incidence, such as procurement of specialised staff and equipment, were also recorded. This study aimed to investigate the historical pattern of PU incidence in the Trust to assess intervention effectiveness in reducing PU incidence, and to use historical data to derive estimates of future incidence.

METHOD

Time-series analysis was conducted on monthly PU incidence data to quantify underlying trends, seasonality and effect of interventions, and to derive a suitable model to predict future incidence levels.

RESULTS

Mean monthly PU incidence gradually reduced from 20.3 during 2012 to 5.08 during 2019; with a negative linear trend in the presence of concurrent seasonal effects. There was limited evidence that implementation of specific interventions was associated with raised rates of reduction; however, incidence reductions during intervention periods continued from lower baselines. Best estimate predictions revealed that incidence is likely to stay at current levels or below for the foreseeable future.

CONCLUSION

Past data can be used to model future episodes of inpatient care PU occurrence. Interventions may be effective in reducing PU incidence rates.

Methodological considerations for studying neural oscillations

Neural oscillations are ubiquitous across recording methodologies and species, broadly associated with cognitive tasks, and amenable to computational modelling that investigates neural circuit generating mechanisms and neural population dynamics. Because of this, neural oscillations offer an exciting potential opportunity for linking theory, physiology and mechanisms of cognition. However, despite their prevalence, there are many concerns-new and old-about how our analysis assumptions are violated by known properties of field potential data. For investigations of neural oscillations to be properly interpreted, and ultimately developed into mechanistic theories, it is necessary to carefully consider the underlying assumptions of the methods we employ. Here, we discuss seven methodological considerations for analysing neural oscillations. The considerations are to (1) verify the presence of oscillations, as they may be absent; (2) validate oscillation band definitions, to address variable peak frequencies; (3) account for concurrent non-oscillatory aperiodic activity, which might otherwise confound measures; measure and account for (4) temporal variability and (5) waveform shape of neural oscillations, which are often bursty and/or nonsinusoidal, potentially leading to spurious results; (6) separate spatially overlapping rhythms, which may interfere with each other; and (7) consider the required signal-to-noise ratio for obtaining reliable estimates. For each topic, we provide relevant examples, demonstrate potential errors of interpretation, and offer suggestions to address these issues. We primarily focus on univariate measures, such as power and phase estimates, though we discuss how these issues can propagate to multivariate measures. These considerations and recommendations offer a helpful guide for measuring and interpreting neural oscillations.

Prediction of Asthma Hospitalizations for the Common Cold Using Google Trends: Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

In contrast to air pollution and pollen exposure, data on the occurrence of the common cold are difficult to incorporate in models predicting asthma hospitalizations.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess whether web-based searches on common cold would correlate with and help to predict asthma hospitalizations.

METHODS

We analyzed all hospitalizations with a main diagnosis of asthma occurring in 5 different countries (Portugal, Spain, Finland, Norway, and Brazil) for a period of approximately 5 years (January 1, 2012-December 17, 2016). Data on web-based searches on common cold were retrieved from Google Trends (GT) using the pseudo-influenza syndrome topic and local language search terms for common cold for the same countries and periods. We applied time series analysis methods to estimate the correlation between GT and hospitalization data. In addition, we built autoregressive models to forecast the weekly number of asthma hospitalizations for a period of 1 year (June 2015-June 2016) based on admissions and GT data from the 3 previous years.

RESULTS

In time series analyses, GT data on common cold displayed strong correlations with asthma hospitalizations occurring in Portugal (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.73), Spain (ρ=0.82-0.84), and Brazil (ρ=0.77-0.83) and moderate correlations with those occurring in Norway (ρ=0.32-0.35) and Finland (ρ=0.44-0.47). Similar patterns were observed in the correlation between forecasted and observed asthma hospitalizations from June 2015 to June 2016, with the number of forecasted hospitalizations differing on average between 12% (Spain) and 33% (Norway) from observed hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Common cold-related web-based searches display moderate-to-strong correlations with asthma hospitalizations and may be useful in forecasting them.

[Application of ARIMA Model for Mid- and Long-term Forecasting of Ozone Concentration]

Ozone pollution has recently become a severe air quality issue in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Due to the lack of a precursor emission inventory and complexity of physical and chemical mechanism of ozone generation, numerical modeling still exhibits significant deviations in ozone forecasting. Owing to its simplicity and low calculation costs, the time series analysis model can be effectively applied for ozone pollution forecasting. We conducted a time series analysis of ozone concentration at Shangdianzi, Baoding, and Tianjin sites. Both seasonal and dynamic ARIMA models were established to perform mid- and long-term ozone forecasting. The correlation coefficient R between the predicted and observed value can reach 0.951, and the RMSE is only 10.2 μg·m^-3 for the monthly average ozone prediction by the seasonal ARIMA model. The correlation coefficient R between the predicted and observed value increased from 0.296-0.455 to 0.670-0.748, and RMSE was effectively reduced for the 8-hour ozone average predicted by the dynamic ARIMA model.

Climate influence the human leptospirosis cases in Brazil, 2007-2019: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Human leptospirosis is responsible for great losses and deaths, especially in developing countries, which can be mitigated by knowing the correct health indicators and climate influence on the disease.

METHODS

Leptospirosis cases and deaths, population and precipitation were recovered from different databases (2007-2019). Annual incidence, mortality and case fatality rates (CFRs) of human leptospirosis and average precipitation were calculated for Brazil and its regions. Time series analysis using an moving average with external variable (ARMAX) model was used to analyse the monthly contribution and precipitation influence over leptospirosis cases for each Brazilian region and for the whole country. A forecast model to predict cases for 2020 was created for Brazil.

RESULTS

Human leptospirosis exhibited heterogeneous distribution among Brazilian regions, with most cases occurring during the rainy season and precipitation influenced the disease occurrence in all regions but the South. The forecast model predicted 3276.99 cases for 2020 (mean absolute percentage error 14.680 and root mean square error 53.013). Considering the annual average for the period, the leptospirosis incidence was 1913 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, mortality was 0.168 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants and the CFR was 8.83%.

CONCLUSIONS

The models built can be useful for planning leptospirosis surveillance and control actions for the whole country and its regions and, together with the health indicators, revealed no uniform epidemiological situation of leptospirosis in Brazil.

A Fishery Water Quality Monitoring and Prediction Evaluation System for Floating UAV Based on Time Series

In recent years, fishery has developed rapidly. For the vital interests of the majority of fishermen, this paper makes full use of Internet of Things and air–water amphibious UAV technology to provide an integrated system that can meet the requirements of fishery water quality monitoring and prediction evaluation. To monitor target water quality in real time, the water quality monitoring of the system is mainly completed by a six-rotor floating UAV that carries water quality sensors. The GPRS module is then used to realize remote data transmission. The prediction of water quality transmission data is mainly realized by the algorithm of time series comprehensive analysis. The evaluation rules are determined according to the water quality evaluation standards to evaluate the predicted water quality data. Finally, the feasibility of the system is proved through experiments. The results show that the system can effectively evaluate fishery water quality under different weather conditions. The prediction accuracy of the pH, dissolved oxygen content, and ammonia nitrogen content of fishery water quality can reach 99%, 98%, and 99% on sunny days, and reach 92%, 98%, and 91% on rainy days.

Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries

(1) Background: to describe the dynamic of the pandemic across 35 European countries over a period of 9 months. (2) Methods: a three-phase time series model was fitted for 35 European countries, predicting deaths based on SARS-CoV-2 incidences. Hierarchical clustering resulted in three clusters of countries. A multiple regression model was developed predicting thresholds for COVID-19 incidences, coupled to death numbers. (3) Results: The model showed strongly connected deaths and incidences during the waves in spring and fall. The corrected case-fatality rates ranged from 2% to 20.7% in the first wave, and from 0.5% to 4.2% in the second wave. If the incidences stay below a threshold, predicted by the regression model (R2=85.0%), COVID-19 related deaths and incidences were not necessarily coupled. The clusters represented different regions in Europe, and the corrected case-fatality rates in each cluster flipped from high to low or vice versa. Severely and less severely affected countries flipped between the first and second wave. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 incidences and related deaths were uncoupled during the summer but coupled during two waves. Once a country-specific threshold of infections is reached, death numbers will start to rise, allowing health care systems and countries to prepare.

Reductions in mortality resulting from COVID-19 quarantine measures in China

Background

To explore the impact of quarantine measures on the cause of death.

Methods

We use time series analysis with the data from death cause surveillance database of Suzhou from January 2017 to December 2019 to estimate the expected deaths from January to June 2020 and compare these expected deaths with the reported numbers of deaths.

Results

After the implementation of epidemic prevention measures in Suzhou in the first 3 months, overall number of all-cause deaths declined for 5.36, 7.54 and 7.02% compared with predicted numbers. The number of deaths from respiratory causes and traffic accidents declined shapely by 30.1 and 26.9%, totally. When quarantine measures were released (April–June), however, the observed numbers of total deaths exceeded the predicted deaths. People aged over 70 accounted for 91.6% of declined death number in respiratory causes and people aged over 60 accounted for 68.0% of declined death number in traffic accidents. Women over the age of 80 benefited the most from respiratory prevention (accounts for 41% of all reductions), whereas women aged over 60 benefited the most from traffic control (44%).

Conclusions

Overall, the whole population benefited from the epidemic prevention measures especially elderly females. This study is a useful supplement to encourage the government to develop regular preventive measures under the era of normalized epidemic.

Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19

Pandemic COVID-19 which has infected more than 35,027,546 people and death more than 1,034,837 people in 235 countries as on October 05, 2020 has created a chaos across the globe. In this paper, we develop a compartmental epidemic model to understand the spreading behaviour of the disease in human population with a special case of Bhilwara, a desert town in India where successful control measures TTT (tracking, testing and treatment) was adopted to curb the disease in the very early phase of the spread of the disease in India. Local and global asymptotic stability is established for endemic equilibrium. Extensive numerical simulations with real parametric values are performed to validate the analytical results. Trend analysis of fatality rate, infection rate, and impact of lockdown is performed for USA, European countries, Russia, Iran, China, Japan, S. Korea with a comparative assessment by India. Kruskal - Wallis test is performed to test the null hypothesis for infected cases during the four lockdown phases in India. It has been observed that there is a significant difference at both 95% and 99% confidence interval in the infected cases, recovered cases and the case fatality rate during all the four phases of the lockdown.

Maternal effects and the outcome of interspecific competition

Maternal environmental effects create lagged population responses to past environments. Although they are ubiquitous and vary in expression across taxa, it remains unclear if and how their presence alters competitive interactions in ecological communities.Here, we use a discrete-time competition model to simulate how maternal effects alter competitive dynamics in fluctuating and constant environments. Further, we explore how omitting maternal effects alter estimates of known model parameters from observational time series data.Our simulations demonstrate that (i) maternal effects change competitive outcomes, regardless of whether competitors otherwise interact neutrally or exhibit non-neutral competitive differences, (ii) the consequences of maternal effects for competitive outcomes are mediated by the temporal structure of environmental variation, (iii) even in constant conditions, competitive outcomes are influenced by species' maternal effects strategies, and (iv) in observational time series data, omitting maternal effects reduces variation explained by models and biases parameter estimates, including competition coefficients.Our findings demonstrate that the ecological consequences of maternal effects hinge on the competitive environment. Evolutionary biologists have long recognized that maternal effects can be an important but often overlooked strategy buffering populations from environmental change. We suggest that maternal effects are similarly critical to ecology and call for research into maternal effects as drivers of dynamics in populations and communities.

Count Data Time Series Modelling in Julia-The CountTimeSeries.jl Package and Applications

A new software package for the Julia language, CountTimeSeries.jl, is under review, which provides likelihood based methods for integer-valued time series. The package’s functionalities are showcased in a simulation study on finite sample properties of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and three real-life data applications. First, the number of newly infected COVID-19 patients is predicted. Then, previous findings on the need for overdispersion and zero inflation are reviewed in an application on animal submissions in New Zealand. Further, information criteria are used for model selection to investigate patterns in corporate insolvencies in Rhineland-Palatinate. Theoretical background and implementation details are described, and complete code for all applications is provided online. The CountTimeSeries package is available at the general Julia package registry.

Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China

Objective

The purpose of this study is to develop a novel data-driven hybrid model by fusing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), with nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARNN), called EEMD-ARIMA-NARNN model, to assess and forecast the epidemic patterns of TB in Tibet.

Methods

The TB incidence from January 2006 to December 2017 was obtained, and then the time series was partitioned into training subsamples (from January 2006 to December 2016) and testing subsamples (from January to December 2017). Among them, the training set was used to develop the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined model, whereas the testing set was used to validate the forecasting performance of the model. Whilst the forecasting accuracy level of this novel method was compared with the basic SARIMA model, basic NARNN model, error-trend-seasonal (ETS) model, and traditional SARIMA-NARNN mixture model.

Results

By comparing the accuracy level of the forecasting measurements including root-mean-square error, mean absolute deviation, mean error rate, mean absolute percentage error, and root-mean-square percentage error, it was shown that the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined method produced lower error rates than the others. The descriptive statistics suggested that TB was a seasonal disease, peaking in late winter and early spring and a trough in autumn and early winter, and the TB epidemic indicated a drastic increase by a factor of 1.7 from 2006 to 2017 in Tibet, with average annual percentage change of 5.8 (95% confidence intervals: 3.5–8.1).

Conclusion

This novel data-driven hybrid method can better consider both linear and nonlinear components in the TB incidence than the others used in this study, which is of great help to estimate and forecast the future epidemic trends of TB in Tibet. Besides, under present trends, strict precautionary measures are required to reduce the spread of TB in Tibet.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. We evaluated the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, a region of Spain. We monitored all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents from February 6th to March 28th, 2021, the subsequent time period after which 70% of them were fully vaccinated. We developed a modeling framework based on the relation between community and LTFCs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July -December 2020) and compared the true observations with the counterfactual model predictions. As a measure of vaccine effectiveness, we computed the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction on the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We estimated that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population were fully vaccinated, 74% (58%-81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36%-86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents were prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents was reduced up to 90% (76-93%, 90%CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Conditional on key factors such as vaccine roll out, escape and coverage --across age groups--, widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

Use of Composites in Analysis of Individual Time Series: Implications for Person-Specific Dynamic Parameters

Psychology has seen an increase in the study of intra-individual processes through time series. Although timely and relevant, modeling variance from unique sources in time series may lead to model non-convergence, making it tempting to reduce the number of parameters in the model. The purpose of this paper was to investigate use of composite scores in analysis of individual time series. To meet this goal, we compared the dynamic factor analysis (DFA) model using multiple indicators with the autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive + white noise (AR + WN) models using composites. We conducted a Monte Carlo study in which a DFA(1,1) model was used to generate the data with varying conditions of size of factor loadings, number of indicators, size of AR parameters, and time series length. We also conducted analysis of empirical data from six individuals' daily self-reports of mood. Findings indicated that the DFA(1,1) and AR(1) + WN models performed comparably in their recovery of AR parameters, while the AR(1) model underestimated the parameter under nearly all conditions. However, variability of estimates may make the AR(1) + WN model less viable for researchers conducting individual-level analyses when the true data-generating mechanism is the DFA(1, 1) model.

Detecting Task-Dependent Functional Connectivity in Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation with Person-Specific Hemodynamic Response Functions

Introduction: Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) has proven to be a reliable data-driven method to arrive at functional connectivity maps that represent associations between brain regions across time in groups and individuals. However, to date, GIMME has not been able to model time-varying task-related effects. This article introduces HRF-GIMME, an extension of GIMME that enables the modeling of the direct and modulatory effects of a task on functional magnetic resonance imaging data collected by using event-related designs. Critically, hemodynamic response function (HRF)-GIMME incorporates person-specific modeling of the HRF to accommodate known variability in onset delay and shape. Methods: After an introduction of the technical aspects of HRF-GIMME, the performance of HRF-GIMME is evaluated via both a simulation study and application to empirical data. The simulation study assesses the sensitivity and specificity of HRF-GIMME by using data simulated from one slow and two rapid event-related designs, and HRF-GIMME is then applied to two empirical data sets from similar designs to evaluate performance in recovering known neural circuitry. Results: HRF-GIMME showed high sensitivity and specificity across all simulated conditions, and it performed well in the recovery of expected relations between convolved task vectors and brain regions in both simulated and empirical data, particularly for the slow event-related design. Conclusion: Results from simulated and empirical data indicate that HRF-GIMME is a powerful new tool for obtaining directed functional connectivity maps of intrinsic and task-related connections that is able to uncover what is common across the sample as well as crucial individual-level path connections and estimates. Impact statement Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) is a reliable method for creating functional connectivity maps of the connections between brain regions across time, and it is able to detect what is common across the sample and what is shared between subsets of participants, as well as individual-level path estimates. However, historically, GIMME does not model task-related effects. The novel HRF-GIMME algorithm enables the modeling of direct and modulatory task effects through individual-level estimation of the hemodynamic response function (HRF), presenting a powerful new tool for assessing task effects on functional connectivity networks in functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

Correlation between Acinetobacter baumannii Resistance and Hospital Use of Meropenem, Cefepime, and Ciprofloxacin: Time Series Analysis and Dynamic Regression Models

Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most difficult-to-treat pathogens worldwide, due to developed resistance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of widely prescribed antimicrobials and the respective resistance rates of A. baumannii, and to explore the relationship between antimicrobial use and the emergence of A. baumannii resistance in a tertiary care hospital. Monthly data on A. baumannii susceptibility rates and antimicrobial use, between January 2014 and December 2017, were analyzed using time series analysis (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models) and dynamic regression models. Temporal correlations between meropenem, cefepime, and ciprofloxacin use and the corresponding rates of A. baumannii resistance were documented. The results of ARIMA models showed statistically significant correlation between meropenem use and the detection rate of meropenem-resistant A. baumannii with a lag of two months (p = 0.024). A positive association, with one month lag, was identified between cefepime use and cefepime-resistant A. baumannii (p = 0.028), as well as between ciprofloxacin use and its resistance (p < 0.001). The dynamic regression models offered explanation of variance for the resistance rates (R² > 0.60). The magnitude of the effect on resistance for each antimicrobial agent differed significantly.

On Time Scales of Intrinsic Oscillations in the Climate System

Proxy temperature data records featuring local time series, regional averages from areas all around the globe, as well as global averages, are analyzed using the Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) method. As explained in the paper, SFA is much more effective than the traditional Fourier analysis in identifying slow-varying (low-frequency) signals in data sets of a limited length. We find the existence of a striking gap from ~1000 to about ~20,000 years, which separates intrinsic climatic oscillations with periods ranging from ~60 years to ~1000 years, from the longer time-scale periodicities (20,000 year+) involving external forcing associated with Milankovitch cycles. The absence of natural oscillations with periods within the gap is consistent with cumulative evidence based on past data analyses, as well as with earlier theoretical and modeling studies.

Short-Term Associations of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) with All-Cause Hospital Admissions and Total Charges in 12 Japanese Cities

The short-term association between ambient particulate matter ≤2.5 microns in diameter (PM_2.5) and hospital admissions is not fully understood. Studies of this association with hospital admission costs are also scarce, especially in entire hospitalized populations. We examined the association between ambient PM_2.5 and all-cause hospital admissions, the corresponding total charges, and the total charges per patient by analyzing the hospital admission data of 2 years from 628 hospitals in 12 cities in Japan. We used generalized additive models with quasi-Poisson regression for hospital admissions and generalized additive models with log-linear regression for total charges and total charges per patient. We first estimated city-specific results and the combined results by random-effect models. A total of 2,017,750 hospital admissions were identified. A 10 µg/m³ increase in the 2 day moving average was associated with a 0.56% (95% CI: 0.14–0.99%) increase in all-cause hospital admissions and a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.44–1.90%) increase in total charges, and a 10 µg/m³ increase in the prior 2 days was associated with a 0.75% (95% CI: 0.34–1.16%) increase in total charges per patient. Short-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was associated with increased all-cause hospital admissions, total charges, and total charges per patient.

Dynamic Time-Warping Correction for Shifts in Ultrahigh Resolving Power Ion Mobility Spectrometry and Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations

Detection of arrival time shifts between ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) separations can limit achievable resolving power (Rp), particularly when multiple separations are summed or averaged, as commonly practiced in IMS. Such variations can be apparent in higher Rp measurements and are particularly evident in long path length traveling wave structures for lossless ion manipulations (SLIM) IMS due to their typically much longer separation times. Here, we explore data processing approaches employing single value alignment (SVA) and nonlinear dynamic time warping (DTW) to correct for variations between IMS separations, such as due to pressure fluctuations, to enable more effective spectrum summation for improving Rp and detection of low-intensity species. For multipass SLIM IMS separations, where narrow mobility range measurements have arrival times that can extend to several seconds, the SVA approach effectively corrected for such variations and significantly improved Rp for summed separations. However, SVA was much less effective for broad mobility range separations, such as obtained with multilevel SLIM IMS. Changes in ions' arrival times were observed to be correlated with small pressure changes, with approximately 0.6% relative arrival time shifts being common, sufficient to result in a loss of Rp for summed separations. Comparison of the approaches showed that DTW alignment performed similarly to SVA when used over a narrow mobility range but was significantly better (providing narrower peaks and higher signal intensities) for wide mobility range data. We found that the DTW approach increased Rp by as much as 115% for measurements in which 50 IMS separations over 2 s were summed. We conclude that DTW is superior to SVA for ultra-high-resolution broad mobility range SLIM IMS separations and leads to a large improvement in effective Rp, correcting for ion arrival time shifts regardless of the cause, as well as improving the detectability of low-abundance species. Our tool is publicly available for use with universal ion mobility format (.UIMF) and text (.txt) files.

Predicting the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Using Graph Theory-Based Neural Networks

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented social and economic consequences in the United States. Therefore, accurately predicting the dynamics of the pandemic can be very beneficial. Two main elements required for developing reliable predictions include: (1) a predictive model and (2) an indicator of the current condition and status of the pandemic. As a pandemic indicator, we used the effective reproduction number (Rt), which is defined as the number of new infections transmitted by a single contagious individual in a population that may no longer be fully susceptible. To bring the pandemic under control, Rt must be less than one. To eliminate the pandemic, Rt should be close to zero. Therefore, this value may serve as a strong indicator of the current status of the pandemic. For a predictive model, we used graph neural networks (GNNs), a method that combines graphical analysis with the structure of neural networks. We developed two types of GNN models, including: (1) graph-theory-based neural networks (GTNN) and (2) neighborhood-based neural networks (NGNN). The nodes in both graphs indicated individual states in the United States. While the GTNN model's edges document functional connectivity between states, those in the NGNN model link neighboring states to one another. We trained both models with Rt numbers collected over the previous four days and asked them to predict the following day for all states in the United States. The performance of these models was evaluated with the datasets that included Rt values reflecting conditions from 22 January through 26 November 2020 (before the start of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States). To determine the efficiency, we compared the results of two models with each other and with those generated by a baseline Long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The results indicated that the GTNN model outperformed both the NGNN and LSTM models for predicting Rt.

Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan

The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q₁) and 6-month cycle (Q₂) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q₁ and Q₂ were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.

CODEX, a neural network approach to explore signaling dynamics landscapes

Current studies of cell signaling dynamics that use live cell fluorescent biosensors routinely yield thousands of single-cell, heterogeneous, multi-dimensional trajectories. Typically, the extraction of relevant information from time series data relies on predefined, human-interpretable features. Without a priori knowledge of the system, the predefined features may fail to cover the entire spectrum of dynamics. Here we present CODEX, a data-driven approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that identifies patterns in time series. It does not require a priori information about the biological system and the insights into the data are built through explanations of the CNNs' predictions. CODEX provides several views of the data: visualization of all the single-cell trajectories in a low-dimensional space, identification of prototypic trajectories, and extraction of distinctive motifs. We demonstrate how CODEX can provide new insights into ERK and Akt signaling in response to various growth factors, and we recapitulate findings in p53 and TGFβ-SMAD2 signaling.