Reducing Human-Tsetse Contact Significantly Enhances the Efficacy of Sleeping Sickness Active Screening Campaigns: A Promising Result in the Context of Elimination

Background

Control of gambiense sleeping sickness, a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination by 2020, relies mainly on mass screening of populations at risk and treatment of cases. This strategy is however challenged by the existence of undetected reservoirs of parasites that contribute to the maintenance of transmission. In this study, performed in the Boffa disease focus of Guinea, we evaluated the value of adding vector control to medical surveys and measured its impact on disease burden.

Methods

The focus was divided into two parts (screen and treat in the western part; screen and treat plus vector control in the eastern part) separated by the Rio Pongo river. Population census and baseline entomological data were collected from the entire focus at the beginning of the study and insecticide impregnated targets were deployed on the eastern bank only. Medical surveys were performed in both areas in 2012 and 2013.

Findings

In the vector control area, there was an 80% decrease in tsetse density, resulting in a significant decrease of human tsetse contacts, and a decrease of disease prevalence (from 0.3% to 0.1%; p=0.01), and an almost nil incidence of new infections (<0.1%). In contrast, incidence was 10 times higher in the area without vector control (>1%, p<0.0001) with a disease prevalence increasing slightly (from 0.5 to 0.7%, p=0.34).

Interpretation

Combining medical and vector control was decisive in reducing T. b. gambiense transmission and in speeding up progress towards elimination. Similar strategies could be applied in other foci.

Sleeping sickness is a serious neglected tropical disease which has been targeted for elimination by 2020. Currently, control relies on mass screening populations at risk and treatment of cases. This strategy is compromised because it is often impossible to reach more than 75% of the population. An alternate method is to kill the tsetse fly which transmits the parasite causing the disease. To determine the value of adding vector control to medical interventions we undertook a vector control programme alongside a screen and treat programme in the Boffa disease focus of Guinea. We divided the focus into two parts (screen and treat in the western part; screen and treat plus vector control in the eastern part). In the vector control area, there was an 80% decrease in tsetse density and a decrease of disease prevalence from three cases per thousand to one case per thousand with almost no new cases being contracted during the control period. In contrast, incidence was 10 times higher in the area without vector control. Combining medical and vector control was decisive in reducing sleeping sickness transmission and could speed up the elimination process. Similar strategies could be applied in other foci.

Temporal and spatial analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa

West Africa is currently witnessing the most extensive Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak so far recorded. Until now, there have been 27,013 reported cases and 11,134 deaths. The origin of the virus is thought to have been a zoonotic transmission from a bat to a two-year-old boy in December 2013 (ref. 2). From this index case the virus was spread by human-to-human contact throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, the origin of the particular virus in each country and time of transmission is not known and currently relies on epidemiological analysis, which may be unreliable owing to the difficulties of obtaining patient information. Here we trace the genetic evolution of EBOV in the current outbreak that has resulted in multiple lineages. Deep sequencing of 179 patient samples processed by the European Mobile Laboratory, the first diagnostics unit to be deployed to the epicentre of the outbreak in Guinea, reveals an epidemiological and evolutionary history of the epidemic from March 2014 to January 2015. Analysis of EBOV genome evolution has also benefited from a similar sequencing effort of patient samples from Sierra Leone. Our results confirm that the EBOV from Guinea moved into Sierra Leone, most likely in April or early May. The viruses of the Guinea/Sierra Leone lineage mixed around June/July 2014. Viral sequences covering August, September and October 2014 indicate that this lineage evolved independently within Guinea. These data can be used in conjunction with epidemiological information to test retrospectively the effectiveness of control measures, and provides an unprecedented window into the evolution of an ongoing viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak.

Distinct lineages of Ebola virus in Guinea during the 2014 West African epidemic

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease of unprecedented scale has been ongoing for more than a year in West Africa. As of 29 April 2015, there have been 26,277 reported total cases (of which 14,895 have been laboratory confirmed) resulting in 10,899 deaths. The source of the outbreak was traced to the prefecture of Guéckédou in the forested region of southeastern Guinea. The virus later spread to the capital, Conakry, and to the neighbouring countries of Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Mali. In March 2014, when the first cases were detected in Conakry, the Institut Pasteur of Dakar, Senegal, deployed a mobile laboratory in Donka hospital to provide diagnostic services to the greater Conakry urban area and other regions of Guinea. Through this process we sampled 85 Ebola viruses (EBOV) from patients infected from July to November 2014, and report their full genome sequences here. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the sustained transmission of three distinct viral lineages co-circulating in Guinea, including the urban setting of Conakry and its surroundings. One lineage is unique to Guinea and closely related to the earliest sampled viruses of the epidemic. A second lineage contains viruses probably reintroduced from neighbouring Sierra Leone on multiple occasions, while a third lineage later spread from Guinea to Mali. Each lineage is defined by multiple mutations, including non-synonymous changes in the virion protein 35 (VP35), glycoprotein (GP) and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (L) proteins. The viral GP is characterized by a glycosylation site modification and mutations in the mucin-like domain that could modify the outer shape of the virion. These data illustrate the ongoing ability of EBOV to develop lineage-specific and potentially phenotypically important variation.

The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE) at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%-56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%). This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%-88%) for two doses and 44% (95% CI -27% to 76%) for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%-88%), which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943-86,205) cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435-100,150) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490-3,170) cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect surveillance data and uncertainty about the transmission dynamics of cholera in each setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Reactive vaccination campaigns using a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a standard two-dose campaign when vaccine supplies are limited, while at the same time reducing logistical complexity. These findings should motivate consideration of the trade-offs between one- and two-dose campaigns in resource-constrained settings, though further field efficacy data are needed and should be a priority in any one-dose campaign.

The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola

A World Health Organization expert meeting on Ebola vaccines proposed urgent safety and efficacy studies in response to the outbreak in West Africa. One approach to communicable disease control is ring vaccination of individuals at high risk of infection due to their social or geographical connection to a known case. This paper describes the protocol for a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design which uses ring vaccination.In the Ebola ça suffit ring vaccination trial, rings are randomised 1:1 to (a) immediate vaccination of eligible adults with single dose vaccination or (b) vaccination delayed by 21 days. Vaccine efficacy against disease is assessed in participants over equivalent periods from the day of randomisation. Secondary objectives include vaccine effectiveness at the level of the ring, and incidence of serious adverse events. Ring vaccination trials are adaptive, can be run until disease elimination, allow interim analysis, and can go dormant during inter-epidemic periods.

Malaria Prevalence among Young Infants in Different Transmission Settings, Africa

The prevalence and consequences of malaria among infants are not well characterized and may be underestimated. A better understanding of the risk for malaria in early infancy is critical for drug development and informed decision making. In a cross-sectional survey in Guinea, The Gambia, and Benin, countries with different malaria transmission intensities, the overall prevalence of malaria among infants <6 months of age was 11.8% (Guinea, 21.7%; The Gambia, 3.7%; and Benin, 10.2%). Seroprevalence ranged from 5.7% in The Gambia to 41.6% in Guinea. Mean parasite densities in infants were significantly lower than those in children 1-9 years of age in The Gambia (p<0.0001) and Benin (p = 0.0021). Malaria in infants was significantly associated with fever or recent history of fever (p = 0.007) and anemia (p = 0.001). Targeted preventive interventions, adequate drug formulations, and treatment guidelines are needed to address the sizeable prevalence of malaria among young infants in malaria-endemic countries.

[Smoking and related factors among college students in Dixinn, Guinea]

INTRODUCTION

Very few published studies are available on smoking in schools In Guinea. This investigation was designed to determine the extent of smoking in Guinean urban schools.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted from April to june 2012. Students from four public schools in the municipality of Dixinn were anonymously interviewed by self-administered questionnaire concerning their smoking habits. The questionnaires were then analysed by SPSS 20 software

RESULTS

The prevalence of smoking, always in the form of cigarettes, was 13.4% (C/95%: 10.6-16.1) among college students. Early initiation of smoking was observed (13.9 years) and smokers frequently expressed the prospect of withdrawal. The most common predisposing factor was the imitation of the environment (32.9%). The influence of fashion and advertising (45.6%) and imitation of the per group (32.9%) were the factors most frequently cited to promote smoking. Male gender [odd ratio= 7.9 (95% confidence interval3.8 to 16.9)], having a close friend who smoked [1.7 (1.1-2.8)], and frequently seeing other students smoking {3 8 (2.3 to 6.2)] were associated with smoking.

CONCLUSION

Smoking is common among college students in Conakry, Guinea. The authorities, including educational authorities, should be more actively involved in the fight against this growing scourge in developing countries.

Wuchereria bancrofti infection in rural tropical guinea savannah communities: Rapid epidemiological assessment using immunochromatographic card test and prevalence of hydrocoele

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by the nematode Wuchereria bancrofti is a major public health concern in endemic communities worldwide. Among tropical diseases it is second to malaria in terms of disability adjusted life years. The Nigerian LF elimination programme has been slated for 2015. Currently, there is paucity of published data on the problem in rural Ebonyi State. This survey was conducted in six rural communities of southwestern Ebonyi State to assess its prevalence among the population and provide baseline data for incorporation into the national LF elimination programme. Immunochromatographic card test (ICT) for detecting circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using whole blood and overt clinical manifestations (lymphoedema and hydrocoele) were used as epidemiological tools. All the studied communities were endemic for active bancroftian filariasis. Of the 600 randomly selected subjects aged ≥10 years, an overall prevalence of 23.50% was established (range, 17.00 - 30.00%). Overall, the antigenaemic prevalence was similar; there was a trend of slightly higher prevalence in males (24.34%) than females (22.39%). The between-gender prevalence difference was not statistically significant (χ² = 8.16, df = 1, p = 0.05) based on CFA positivity. Antigenaemia prevalence was age-dependent, increased exponentially and peaked at 20.57% in subjects in the 40-49 years age category. Lymphoedema and hydrocoele attributable to W. bancrofti were observed in 4.05% of subjects examined. Generally, hydrocoele was observed in 1.69% males, whereas lymphoedema was presented by 2.36% (1.35% females; 1.01% males) of studied population. None of the male subjects had both the two clinical features. Results of this study showed that W. bancrofti infection is widespread in southwestern Ebonyi State, Nigeria, and is a major health issue. There is a need for mass mobilization, mass education and community involvement in sustained intervention programme toward lymphatic filariasis elimination.

Poor glycemic control in type 2 diabetes in the South of the Sahara: the issue of limited access to an HbA1c test

BACKGROUND

Management of type 2 diabetes remains a challenge in Africa. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and predictors of poor glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes living in sub-Saharan.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study involving 1267 people (61% women) with type 2 diabetes (mean age 58 years) recruited across health facilities in Cameroon and Guinea. Predictors of poor glycemic control (HbA1c ≥7.0% (53 mmol/mol)) were investigated via logistic regressions.

RESULTS

The mean body mass index was 27.4 ± 5.8 kg/m(2), and 74% of patients had poor glycemic control. Predictors of poor glycemic control in multivariable regression models were recruitment in Guinea [odd ratio: 2.91 (95% confidence interval 2.07 to 4.11)], age <65 years [1.40 (1.04 to 1.88)], diabetes duration ≥3 years [2.36 (1.74 to 3.21)], treatment with: oral glucose control agents [3.46 (2.28 to 5.26)], insulin alone or with oral glucose control agents [7.74 (4.70 to 12.74)] and absence of a previous HbA1c measurement in Guinea [2.96 (1.30 to 6.75)].

CONCLUSION

Poor control of blood glucose is common in patients with type 2 diabetes in these two countries. Limited access to HbA1c appears to be a key factor associated with poor glycemic control in Guinea, and should be addressed by health policies targeting improvement in the outcomes of diabetes care.

The cost of an Ebola case

As the most recent outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa continues to grow since its initial recognition as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, an unanswered question is what is the cost of a case of Ebola? Understanding this cost will help decision makers better understand the impact of each case of EVD, benchmark this against that of other diseases, prioritize which cases may require response, and begin to estimate the cost of Ebola outbreaks. To date, the scientific literature has not characterized this cost per case. Therefore, we developed a mathematical model to estimate the cost of an EVD case from the provider and societal perspectives in the three most affected countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Our model estimates the total societal cost of an EVD case with full recovery ranges from $480 to $912, while that of an EVD case not surviving ranges from $5929 to $18 929, varying by age and country. Therefore, as of 10 December 2014, the estimated total societal costs of all reported EVD cases in these three countries range from $82 to potentially over $356 million.

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak

BACKGROUND

The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports.

METHODS

We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.

FINDINGS

Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2.8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91,547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.

INTERPRETATION

Decision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Selecting the right tool for the job

There are competing ethical concerns when it comes to designing any clinical research study. Clinical trials of possible treatments for Ebola virus are no exception. If anything, the competing ethical concerns are exacerbated in trying to find answers to a deadly, rapidly spreading, infectious disease. The primary goal of current research is to identify experimental therapies that can cure Ebola or cure it with reasonable probability in infected individuals. Pursuit of that goal must be methodologically sound, practical and consistent with prevailing norms governing human subjects research. Some maintain that only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a placebo or standard-of-care arm can meet these conditions. We maintain that there are alternative trial designs that can do so as well and that sometimes these are preferable to RCTs.

Clinical presentation of patients with Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea

BACKGROUND

In March 2014, the World Health Organization was notified of an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus in a remote area of Guinea. The outbreak then spread to the capital, Conakry, and to neighboring countries and has subsequently become the largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to date.

METHODS

From March 25 to April 26, 2014, we performed a study of all patients with laboratory-confirmed EVD in Conakry. Mortality was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included patient characteristics, complications, treatments, and comparisons between survivors and nonsurvivors.

RESULTS

Of 80 patients who presented with symptoms, 37 had laboratory-confirmed EVD. Among confirmed cases, the median age was 38 years (interquartile range, 28 to 46), 24 patients (65%) were men, and 14 (38%) were health care workers; among the health care workers, nosocomial transmission was implicated in 12 patients (32%). Patients with confirmed EVD presented to the hospital a median of 5 days (interquartile range, 3 to 7) after the onset of symptoms, most commonly with fever (in 84% of the patients; mean temperature, 38.6°C), fatigue (in 65%), diarrhea (in 62%), and tachycardia (mean heart rate, >93 beats per minute). Of these patients, 28 (76%) were treated with intravenous fluids and 37 (100%) with antibiotics. Sixteen patients (43%) died, with a median time from symptom onset to death of 8 days (interquartile range, 7 to 11). Patients who were 40 years of age or older, as compared with those under the age of 40 years, had a relative risk of death of 3.49 (95% confidence interval, 1.42 to 8.59; P=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with EVD presented with evidence of dehydration associated with vomiting and severe diarrhea. Despite attempts at volume repletion, antimicrobial therapy, and limited laboratory services, the rate of death was 43%.