Coronary Artery Calcium as a Synergistic Tool for the Age- and Sex-Specific Risk of Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

Background

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a predictor for the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to a lesser extent cancer. The age‐ and sex‐specific relationship of CAC with CVD and cancer mortality is unknown.

Methods and Results

Asymptomatic patients aged 40 to 75 years old without known CVD were included from the CAC Consortium. We calculated sex‐specific mortality rates per 1000 person‐years’ follow‐up. Using parametric survival regression modeling, we determined the age‐ and sex‐specific CAC score at which the risk of death from CVD and cancer were equal. Among the 59 502 patients included in this analysis, the mean age was 54.9 (±8.5) years, 34% were women, and 89% were white. There were 671 deaths attributable to CVD and 954 deaths attributable to cancer over a mean follow‐up of 12±3 years. Among patients with CAC=0, cancer was the leading cause of death, the total mortality rate was low (women, 1.8; men, 1.5), and the CVD mortality rate was exceedingly low for women (0.3) and men (0.3). The age‐specific CAC score at which the risk of CVD and cancer mortality were equal had a U‐shaped relationship for women, while the relationship was exponential for men.

Conclusions

The age‐ and sex‐specific relationship of CAC with CVD and cancer mortality differed significantly for women and men. Our age‐ and sex‐specific CAC score provides a more precise estimate and further facilitates the use of CAC as a synergistic tool in strategies for the prediction and prevention of CVD and cancer mortality.

Multimodality imaging: Bird's eye view from the 2019 American College of Cardiology Scientific Sessions

The 2019 American College of Cardiology Scientific Sessions displayed innovation in many areas for the evaluation and management of cardiovascular disease from preventive evaluation and care to advanced interventions. Imaging played a central role in these developments with a highlight of the conference being the imaging research presented. This review will summarize key imaging studies which were presented at this scientific meeting which will lead to innovation in the evaluation and management of cardiovascular disease. Experts in nuclear imaging (DW/MA), echocardiography (MS), cardiac magnetic resonance (SL), and cardiac computed tomography (RB) selected abstracts which they found to be of particular interest to the multimodality imaging audience and were integrated into this review (LP).

Cardiovascular Implications of COVID-19 Infections

Since early 2020, the world has been facing a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Although this positive single-stranded RNA virus primarily causes pulmonary infection and failure, it has been associated with multiple cardiovascular diseases including troponin elevation, myocarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias. Cardiac patients are susceptible to developing more severe infection from SARS-COV-2, making management complicated. In this review we discuss the cardiac manifestations of COVID-19 infections as well as considerations for the management of primary cardiac pathologies during this pandemic.

Coronary Artery Calcification, Statin Use and Long-Term Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

The prognostic utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for individuals taking statins is unclear. We hypothesized that CAC remains associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in individuals using statins at baseline or among those started on statin at follow-up. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 participants who were enrolled between 2000 and 2002 and were free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. Four follow-up visits were conducted in 2002 to 2004, 2004 to 2006, 2005 to 2007, and 2010 to 2012. CAC was assessed at baseline and follow-up using either an electron-beam CT scanner or a multidetector CT system. Statin use at baseline and follow up was self-reported. Among 6,811 participants with complete information on statin use, mean age was 62 (SD = 10) years, 53% were women, 38% white, 12% Chinese-American, 28% African American, and 22% Hispanic. In multivariable analyses, CAC >0 was associated with a significantly higher risk of ASCVD events regardless of baseline or incident statin use. For example, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the association between CAC >0 and ASCVD were 2.46 (1.41, 4.28) for baseline statin users, 2.08 (1.68, 2.57) for baseline-statin nonusers, and 2.21 (1.56, 3.15) for those started on a statin at follow-up. In conclusion, current statin use does not weaken the prognostic utility of CAC. CAC is associated with incident ASCVD regardless of baseline or incident statin use.

Prevalence and predictors of frailty in a high-income developing country: A cross-sectional study

Background: Frailty is a state of vulnerability and a decreased physiological response to stressors. As the population ages, the prevalence of frailty is expected to increase. Thus, identifying tools and resources that efficiently predict frailty among the Saudi population is important. We aimed to describe the prevalence and predictors of frailty among Saudi patients referred for cardiac stress testing with nuclear imaging. Methods: We included 876 patients (mean age 60.3 ± 11 years, women 48%) who underwent clinically indicated cardiac nuclear stress testing between January and October 2016. Fried Clinical Frailty Scale was used to assess frailty. Patients were considered frail if they had a score of four or higher. Multivariate adjusted logistic regression models were used to determine the independent predictors of elderly frail patients. Results: In this cohort, the median age of the included patients was 61 years, and the prevalence of frailty was 40%. The frail patients were older, more frequently women, and had a higher body mass index. Additionally, frailty was associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension (85% vs. 70%) and diabetes (75% vs. 60%). In a fully adjusted logistic regression model, women, hypertension, and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) were independent predictors of elderly frail patients. Conclusions: With the aging of the Saudi population, frailty prevalence is expected to increase. Elderly, obesity, hypertension, and female gender are risk factors of frailty. Interventions to reduce frailty should be focused on this high-risk population.

Percent atheroma volume: Optimal variable to report whole-heart atherosclerotic plaque burden with coronary CTA, the PARADIGM study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Different methodologies to report whole-heart atherosclerotic plaque on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have been utilized. We examined which of the three commonly used plaque burden definitions was least affected by differences in body surface area (BSA) and sex.

METHODS

The PARADIGM study includes symptomatic patients with suspected coronary atherosclerosis who underwent serial CCTA >2 years apart. Coronary lumen, vessel, and plaque were quantified from the coronary tree on a 0.5 mm cross-sectional basis by a core-lab, and summed to per-patient. Three quantitative methods of plaque burden were employed: (1) total plaque volume (PV) in mm³, (2) percent atheroma volume (PAV) in % [which equaled: PV/vessel volume * 100%], and (3) normalized total atheroma volume (TAV_norm) in mm³ [which equaled: PV/vessel length * mean population vessel length]. Only data from the baseline CCTA were used. PV, PAV, and TAV_norm were compared between patients in the top quartile of BSA vs the remaining, and between sexes. Associations between vessel volume, BSA, and the three plaque burden methodologies were assessed.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 1479 patients (age 60.7 ± 9.3 years, 58.4% male) who underwent CCTA. A total of 17,649 coronary artery segments were evaluated with a median of 12 (IQR 11-13) segments per-patient (from a 16-segment coronary tree). Patients with a large BSA (top quartile), compared with the remaining patients, had a larger PV and TAV_norm, but similar PAV. The relation between larger BSA and larger absolute plaque volume (PV and TAV_norm) was mediated by the coronary vessel volume. Independent from the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk (ASCVD) score, vessel volume correlated with PV (P < 0.001), and TAV_norm (P = 0.003), but not with PAV (P = 0.201). The three plaque burden methods were equally affected by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

PAV was less affected by patient's body surface area then PV and TAV_norm and may be the preferred method to report coronary atherosclerotic burden.

Comparing Risk Scores in the Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Deaths: Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

OBJECTIVES

This study compared risk discrimination for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths for the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Risk Score (with and without coronary artery calcium [CAC]), and of simple addition of CAC to the PCE.

BACKGROUND

The PCE predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD events, and the MESA Risk Score predicts risk of CHD. Their comparative performance for the prediction of fatal events is poorly understood.

METHODS

We evaluated 53,487 patients ages 45 to 79 years from the CAC Consortium, a retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic individuals referred for clinical CAC scoring. Risk discrimination was measured using C-statistics.

RESULTS

Mean age was 57 years, 35% were women, and 39% had CAC of 0. There were 421 CHD and 775 CVD deaths over a mean 12-year follow-up. In the overall study population, discrimination with the MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE was almost identical for both outcomes (C-statistics: 0.80 and 0.79 for CHD death, 0.77 and 0.78 for CVD death, respectively). Addition of CAC to the PCE improved risk discrimination, yielding the largest C-statistics. The MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE plus CAC showed the best discrimination among the 45% of patients with 5% to 20% estimated risk. Secondary analyses by estimated CVD risk strata showed modestly improved risk discrimination with CAC also among low- and high-estimated risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the current guideline recommendation to use, among available risk scores, the PCE for initial risk assessment and to use CAC for further risk assessment in a broad borderline and intermediate risk group. Also, in select individuals at low or high estimated risk, CAC modestly improved discrimination. Studies in unselected populations will lead to further understanding of the potential value of tools combining risk scores and CAC for optimal risk assessment.

Machine learning of clinical variables and coronary artery calcium scoring for the prediction of obstructive coronary artery disease on coronary computed tomography angiography: analysis from the CONFIRM registry

AIMS

Symptom-based pretest probability scores that estimate the likelihood of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable chest pain have moderate accuracy. We sought to develop a machine learning (ML) model, utilizing clinical factors and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS), to predict the presence of obstructive CAD on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study screened 35 281 participants enrolled in the CONFIRM registry, who underwent ≥64 detector row CCTA evaluation because of either suspected or previously established CAD. A boosted ensemble algorithm (XGBoost) was used, with data split into a training set (80%) on which 10-fold cross-validation was done and a test set (20%). Performance was assessed of the (1) ML model (using 25 clinical and demographic features), (2) ML + CACS, (3) CAD consortium clinical score, (4) CAD consortium clinical score + CACS, and (5) updated Diamond-Forrester (UDF) score. The study population comprised of 13 054 patients, of whom 2380 (18.2%) had obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis). Machine learning with CACS produced the best performance [area under the curve (AUC) of 0.881] compared with ML alone (AUC of 0.773), CAD consortium clinical score (AUC of 0.734), and with CACS (AUC of 0.866) and UDF (AUC of 0.682), P < 0.05 for all comparisons. CACS, age, and gender were the highest ranking features.

CONCLUSION

A ML model incorporating clinical features in addition to CACS can accurately estimate the pretest likelihood of obstructive CAD on CCTA. In clinical practice, the utilization of such an approach could improve risk stratification and help guide downstream management.

The association of coronary artery calcium score and mortality risk among smokers: The coronary artery calcium consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are the two leading causes of death in smokers. Lung cancer screening is recommended in a large proportion of smokers. We examined the implication of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score (quantitative and qualitative) for cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and cancer mortality risk prediction among current smokers.

METHODS

We included current smokers without known heart disease from the CAC Consortium. Cox regression (for all-cause mortality) and Fine-and-Gray competing-risk regression (for CVD, CHD, and cancer mortality) models, adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, were used to assess the association between CAC and each mortality outcome, with CAC as a continuous (log2-transformed) or categorical variable (CAC = 0, CAC = 1-99, CAC = 100-399, and CAC ≥400). We used number of vessels with CAC as a surrogate for the qualitative measure of CAC and mortality outcomes. Analyses were repeated for lung cancer screening-eligible population (defined as ever smokers with >30 pack years smoking history) (n = 1,149). Hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause mortality and Subdistribution HRs (sHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported.

RESULTS

Over a median of 11.9 years (25th-75th percentile: 10.2-13.3) of follow-up, of 5,147 current smokers (mean age 52.5 ± 9.4, 32.4% women) 337 died (102 of CVD, 54 of CHD, and 123 of cancer). A doubling of CAC score was associated with increased HRs of all-cause mortality (1.10 (1.06-1.14)), and sHRs for CVD (1.15 (1.07-1.24)), CHD (1.26 (1.11-1.42)) and cancer mortality (1.06 (1.00-1.13)). Those with CAC ≥400 had increased sHR of CVD (3.55 (1.70-7.41)), CHD (8.80 (2.41-32.10)), and cancer mortality (1.85 (1.07-3.22)), compared with those with CAC = 0. A diffuse CAC pattern significantly increased the risk of all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality among smokers. Results were consistent for the lung cancer screening-eligible population.

CONCLUSIONS

Qualitative and quantitative CAC scores can prognosticate risk of all-cause, CVD, CHD, and cancer mortality beyond traditional risk factors among all smokers as well as those eligible for lung cancer screening.

Interplay of Coronary Artery Calcium and Risk Factors for Predicting CVD/CHD Mortality: The CAC Consortium

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the association and burden of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with long-term, cause-specific mortality across the spectrum of baseline risk.

BACKGROUND

Although CAC is a known predictor of short-term, all-cause mortality, data on long-term and cause-specific mortality are inadequate.

METHODS

The CAC Consortium cohort is a multicenter cohort of 66,636 participants without coronary heart disease (CHD) who underwent CAC testing. The following risk factors (RFs) were considered: 1) current cigarette smoking; 2) dyslipidemia; 3) diabetes mellitus; 4) hypertension; and 5) family history of CHD.

RESULTS

During the 12.5-years median follow-up, 3,158 (4.7%) deaths occurred; 32% were cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Participants with CAC scores ≥400 had a significantly increased risk for CHD and CVD mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.88 to 7.62; and HR: 4.15; 95% CI: 3.29 to 5.22, respectively) compared with CAC of 0. Participants with ≥3 RFs had a smaller increased risk for CHD and CVD mortality (HR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.85; and HR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.46 to 2.31, respectively) compared with those without RFs. Across RF strata, CAC added prognostic information. For example, participants without RFs but with CAC ≥400 had significantly higher all-cause, non-CVD, CVD, and CHD mortality rates compared with participants with ≥3 RFs and CAC of 0.

CONCLUSIONS

Across the spectrum of RF burden, a higher CAC score was strongly associated with long-term, all-cause mortality and a greater proportion of deaths due to CVD and CHD. Absence of CAC identified people with a low risk over 12 years of follow-up, with most deaths being non-CVD in nature, regardless of RF burden.

Point of Care Clinical Risk Score to Improve the Negative Diagnostic Utility of an Agatston Score of Zero: Averting the Need for Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcification is a marker of underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease. The absence of coronary artery calcification is associated with a low prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), but it cannot be ruled out completely. We sought to develop a clinical tool that can be added to Agatston score of zero to rule out obstructive CAD with high accuracy.

METHODS

We developed a clinical score retrospectively from a cohort of 4903 consecutive patients with an Agatston score of zero. Patients with prior diagnosis of CAD, coronary percutaneous coronary intervention, or surgical revascularization were excluded. Obstructive CAD was defined as any epicardial vessel diameter narrowing of ≥50%. The score was validated using an external cohort of 4290 patients with an Agatston score of zero from a multinational registry.

RESULTS

The score consisted of 7 variables: age, sex, typical chest pain, dyslipidemia, hypertension, family history, and diabetes mellitus. The model was robust with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76) in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.72) in the validation cohort. Patients were divided into 3 risk groups based on the score: low (≤6), intermediate (7-13), and high (≥14). Patients who score ≤6 have a negative likelihood ratio of 0.42 for obstructive CAD, whereas those who score ≥14 have a positive likelihood ratio of >5.5 for obstructive CAD. The outcome was ruled out in >98% of patients with a score ≤6 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a score that may be used to identify the likelihood of obstructive CAD in patients with an Agatston score of zero, which may be used to direct the need for additional testing. However, the results of this retrospective analysis are hypothesis generating and before clinical implementation should be validated in a trial with a prospectively collected data.

The Interplay of the Global Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scoring and Cardiorespiratory Fitness for the Prediction of All-Cause Mortality and Myocardial Infarction: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing Project (The FIT Project)

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is inversely associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. It is unclear whether the prognostic value of CRF differs by baseline estimated ASCVD risk. We studied a retrospective cohort of patients without known heart failure or myocardial infarction (MI) who underwent treadmill stress testing. CRF was measured by metabolic equivalents of task (METs) and ASCVD risk was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equations. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions analyses examined the association between METs and incident all-cause mortality and MI outcomes stratified by baseline ASCVD risk. The C-index evaluated risk discrimination while net reclassification improvement evaluated reclassification with CRF added to the ASCVD risk score. Our study population consisted of 57,999 patients of mean age 53 (13) years, 49% women, 64% white, 29% black. Over a median follow-up 11 years (interquartile range 8 to 14 years) there were 6,670 (11%) deaths, while there were 1,757 (3.0%) MIs over a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range 3 to 8 years). Among patients with ASCVD risk ≥20%, those with METs ≥12 had a 77% lower risk of all-cause mortality (Hazard ratio 0.23 95% confidence interval = 0.20, 0.27) and 67% lower risk of MI (Hazard ratio 0.33 95% confidence interval = 0.24, 0.46) compared to METs <6. Similar results were obtained for those with ASCVD risk <5%. Addition of METs to ASCVD risk score improved the C-statistic from 0.778 to 0.798 for all-cause mortality and 0.726 to 0.733 for MI (both p <0.001). Addition of METs to ASCVD risk score significantly reclassified risk of all-cause mortality (p <0.001) but not MI (p = 0.052). In conclusion, CRF is inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and MI at all levels of ASCVD risk, and provides incremental risk discrimination and reclassification beyond the ASCVD risk score.

Saudi Heart Association (SHA) guidelines for the management of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and negatively impacts quality of life, healthcare costs, and longevity. Although data on HF in the Arab population are scarce, recently developed regional registries are a step forward to evaluating the quality of current patient care and providing an overview of the clinical picture. Despite the burden of HF in Saudi Arabia, there are currently no standardized protocols or guidelines for the management of patients with acute or chronic heart failure. Therefore, the Heart Failure Expert Committee, comprising 13 local specialists representing both public and private sectors, has developed guidelines to address the needs and challenges for the diagnosis and treatment of HF in Saudi Arabia. The ultimate aim of these guidelines is to assist healthcare professionals in delivering optimal care and standardized clinical practice across Saudi Arabia.

On the interpretability of machine learning-based model for predicting hypertension

BACKGROUND

Although complex machine learning models are commonly outperforming the traditional simple interpretable models, clinicians find it hard to understand and trust these complex models due to the lack of intuition and explanation of their predictions. The aim of this study to demonstrate the utility of various model-agnostic explanation techniques of machine learning models with a case study for analyzing the outcomes of the machine learning random forest model for predicting the individuals at risk of developing hypertension based on cardiorespiratory fitness data.

METHODS

The dataset used in this study contains information of 23,095 patients who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 10-year follow-up. Five global interpretability techniques (Feature Importance, Partial Dependence Plot, Individual Conditional Expectation, Feature Interaction, Global Surrogate Models) and two local interpretability techniques (Local Surrogate Models, Shapley Value) have been applied to present the role of the interpretability techniques on assisting the clinical staff to get better understanding and more trust of the outcomes of the machine learning-based predictions.

RESULTS

Several experiments have been conducted and reported. The results show that different interpretability techniques can shed light on different insights on the model behavior where global interpretations can enable clinicians to understand the entire conditional distribution modeled by the trained response function. In contrast, local interpretations promote the understanding of small parts of the conditional distribution for specific instances.

CONCLUSIONS

Various interpretability techniques can vary in their explanations for the behavior of the machine learning model. The global interpretability techniques have the advantage that it can generalize over the entire population while local interpretability techniques focus on giving explanations at the level of instances. Both methods can be equally valid depending on the application need. Both methods are effective methods for assisting clinicians on the medical decision process, however, the clinicians will always remain to hold the final say on accepting or rejecting the outcome of the machine learning models and their explanations based on their domain expertise.

The association between left main coronary artery calcium and cardiovascular-specific and total mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Left main (LM) coronary artery disease is associated with greater myocardial infarction-related mortality, however, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring does not account for disease location. We explored whether LM CAC predicts excess mortality in asymptomatic adults.

METHODS

Cause-specific cardiovascular and all-cause mortality was studied in 28,147 asymptomatic patients with non-zero CAC scores in the CAC Consortium. Multivariate regression was performed to evaluate if the presence and burden of LM CAC predict mortality after adjustment for clinical risk factors and the Agatston CAC score. We further analyzed the per-unit hazard associated with LM CAC in comparison to CAC in other arteries.

RESULTS

The study population had mean age of 58.3 ± 10 years and CAC score of 301 ± 631. LM CAC was present in 21.7% of the cases. During 312,398 patient-years of follow-up, 1,907 deaths were observed. LM CAC was associated with an increased burden of clinical risk factors and total CAC, and was independently predictive of increased hazard for all-cause (HR 1.2 [1.1, 1.3]) and cardiovascular disease death (HR 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]). The hazard for death increased proportionate to the percentage of CAC localized to the LM. On a per-100 Agatston unit basis, LM CAC was associated with a 6-9% incremental hazard for death beyond knowledge of CAC in other arteries.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence and high burden of left main CAC are independently associated with a 20-30% greater hazard for cardiovascular and total mortality in asymptomatic adults, arguing that LM CAC should be routinely noted in CAC score reports when present.

Abstract 5056: Exercise and inflammation on the risk of cancer

Introduction: High systemic inflammation and low levels of exercise are associated with increased risk of cancer. We hypothesized that in the setting of inflammation, exercise mitigates cancer risk.

Methods: To address this, we identified 6,388 participants, free of cancer and cardiovascular disease, enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Regular moderate/vigorous intentional exercise was categorized as present or absent based on self-report from validated questions. A composite inflammatory score was created with a point given for C-reactive protein, IL-6, fibrinogen, and GlycA above normal, with composite scores &gt; 2 points categorized as high. Cancer incidence was ascertained based on ICD codes abstracted from hospitalization or cancer registry data. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate subsequent risk of incident cancer. Models were adjusted for baseline age, gender, race, pack years smoking, education, income, health insurance status, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein levels, healthy diet adherence, statin and aspirin use.

Results: The mean age was 62 years (±10.2 years), 53% female, 39% white, 26% black, 22% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese-American. Compared to the reference group (individuals reporting no exercise and with low levels of inflammation), in multi-variable adjusted models, individuals with high levels of inflammation and no exercise were at highest risk of cancer (hazard ratio = 1.17; 95% confidence interval 1.00 – 1.37), while those with low levels of inflammation who exercised were at the lowest risk of cancer (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.95). Those who had high levels of inflammation, but regular exercise had no increased risk of cancer (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.68-1.30). There was no significant interaction between exercise and inflammation. When considering individual inflammatory markers, there was a similar pattern (Table).

Conclusion: Intentional moderate/vigorous exercise may lower the risk of cancer in individuals with high versus low levels of chronic inflammation.

Cox proportional hazard models for incident cancer by exercise and measures of inflammation, adjusteno exerciseany exerciseHR95% CIHR95% CILow composite score (0 - 1)Ref0.800.680.95High composite score (&gt;2)1.171.001.370.940.681.30P for interaction = 0.25Low CRP (&lt;2 mg/L)Ref0.800.680.95High CRP (&gt;2 mg/L)1.231.051.430.980.711.35P for interaction = 0.94Low IL-6 (&lt; 1.8 pg/mL)Ref0.800.680.95High IL-6 (&gt;1.8 pg/mL)1.070.911.260.860.621.19P for interaction = 0.18Low GlycA (&lt;400 µmol/L)Ref0.800.680.95High GlycA (&gt;400 µmol/L)1.191.021.390.960.691.32P for interaction = 0.73Low fibrinogen (&lt;450 mg/dL)Ref0.800.680.95High fibrinogen (&gt;450 mg/dL)0.970.751.250.770.511.18P for interaction = 1.00

Citation Format: Catherine Handy Marshall, Zeina Dardari, Miguel Cainzos-Achirica, Martin B. Mortensen, Khurram Nasir, Mouaz H. Al-Mallah, Michael D. Miedema, Ron Blankstein, Roger S. Blumenthal, Kala Visvanathan, Michael J. Blaha. Exercise and inflammation on the risk of cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5056.

Use of Sex-Specific Clinical and Exercise Risk Scores to Identify Patients at Increased Risk for All-Cause Mortality

Importance

Risk assessment tools for exercise treadmill testing may have limited external validity. Cardiovascular mortality has decreased in recent decades, and women have been underrepresented in prior cohorts.

Objectives

To determine whether exercise and clinical variables are associated with differential mortality outcomes in men and women and to assess whether sex-specific risk scores better estimate all-cause mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included 59 877 patients seen at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation (CCF cohort) from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2010, and 49 278 patients seen at the Henry Ford Hospital (FIT cohort) from January 1, 1991, through December 31, 2009. All patients were 18 years or older and underwent exercise treadmill testing. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2000, to October 27, 2011, in the CCF cohort and from January 1, 1991, to April 1, 2013, in the FIT cohort.

Main Outcomes and Measurements

The CCF cohort was divided randomly into derivation and validation samples, and separate risk scores were developed for men and women. Net reclassification, C statistics, and integrated discrimination improvement were used to compare the sex-specific risk scores with other tools that have all-cause mortality as the outcome. Discrimination and calibration were also evaluated with these sex-specific risk scores in the FIT cohort.

Results

The CCF cohort included 59 877 patients (59.4% men; 40.5% women) with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 54 (45-63) years and 2521 deaths (4.2%) during a median follow-up of 7 (IQR, 4.1-9.6) years. The FIT cohort included 49 278 patients (52.5% men; 47.4% women) with a median (IQR) age of 54 (46-64) years and 6643 deaths (13.5%) during a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (7-13.4) years. C statistics for the sex-specific risk scores in the CCF validation sample were higher (0.79 in women and 0.81 in men) than C statistics using other tools in women (0.70 for Duke Treadmill Score; 0.74 for Lauer nomogram) and men (0.72 for Duke Treadmill Score; 0.75 for Lauer nomogram). Net reclassification and integrated discrimination improvement were superior with the sex-specific risk scores, mostly owing to correct reclassification of events. The sex-specific risk scores in the FIT cohort demonstrated similar discrimination (C statistic, 0.78 for women and 0.79 for men), and calibration was reasonable.

Conclusions and Relevance

Sex-specific risk scores better estimate mortality in patients undergoing exercise treadmill testing. In particular, these sex-specific risk scores help to identify patients at the highest residual risk in the present era.

Major Randomized Clinical Trials in Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Presented at the 2019 American College of Cardiology Annual Scientific Session

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

At the 2019 American College of Cardiology annual scientific sessions, major randomized clinical trials in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention were presented.

RECENT FINDINGS

The CLEAR Wisdom trial examined the safety and efficacy of adding bempedoic acid to maximally tolerated statin for reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Post hoc analyses from the REDUCE-IT trial evaluated the efficacy of icosapent ethyl for lowering risk of total (first time and recurrent) CVD events. A sub-analysis of ODYSSEY OUTCOMES examined the effect of alirocumab on lipoprotein(a) lowering for reducing CVD risk. The CREOLE trial compared three different combination antihypertensive therapies for blood pressure lowering among black individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. The INFINITY trial examined the effect of intensive blood pressure control on progression of brain white matter changes and various components of mobility and cognitive function. Lastly, post hoc analyses from DECLARE-TIMI 58 evaluated the efficacy of dapagliflozin among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and heart failure or peripheral artery disease. These trials hold future promise for novel agents aimed at reducing CVD burden among high-risk patients who continue to experience CVD events despite treatment with currently available guideline-directed therapy.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and incident lung and colorectal cancer in men and women: Results from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) cohort

BACKGROUND

To the authors' knowledge, the relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and lung and colorectal cancer outcomes is not well established.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed of 49,143 consecutive patients who underwent clinician-referred exercise stress testing from 1991 through 2009. The patients ranged in age from 40 to 70 years, were without cancer, and were treated within the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit, Michigan. CRF, measured in metabolic equivalents of task (METs), was categorized as <6 (reference), 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and ≥12. Incident cancer was obtained through linkage to the cancer registry and all-cause mortality from the National Death Index.

RESULTS

Participants had a mean age of 54 ± 8 years. Approximately 46% were female, 64% were white, 29% were black, and 1% were Hispanic. The median follow-up was 7.7 years. Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, race, sex, body mass index, smoking history, and diabetes, found that those in the highest fitness category (METs ≥12) had a 77% decreased risk of lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14-0.36) and a 61% decreased risk of incident colorectal cancer (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.23-0.66; with additional adjustment for aspirin and statin use). Among those diagnosed with lung and colorectal cancer, those with high fitness had a decreased risk of subsequent death of 44% and 89%, respectively (HR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.32-1.00] and HR, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.03-0.37], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In what to the authors' knowledge is the largest study performed to date, higher CRF was associated with a lower risk of incident lung and colorectal cancer in men and women and a lower risk of all-cause mortality among those diagnosed with lung or colorectal cancer.

The Predictive Value of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring for Major Adverse Cardiac Events According to Renal Function (from the Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter [CONFIRM] Registry)

The prognostic performance of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) for predicting adverse outcomes in patients with decreased renal function remains unclear. We aimed to examine whether CACS improves risk stratification by demonstrating incremental value beyond a traditional risk score according to renal function status. 9,563 individuals without known coronary artery disease were enrolled. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, ml/min/1.73 m²) was ascertained using the modified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula, and was categorized as: ≥90, 60 to 89, and <60. CACS was categorized as 0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, and >400. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for major adverse cardiac events (MACE), comprising all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and late revascularization (>90 days). Mean age was 55.8 ± 11.5 years (52.8% male). In total, 261 (2.7%) patients experienced MACE over a median follow-up of 24.5 months (interquartile range: 16.9 to 41.1). Incident MACE increased with higher CACS across each eGFR category, with the highest rate observed among patients with CACS >400 and eGFR <60 (95.1 per 1,000 person-years). A CACS >400 increased MACE risk with HR 4.46 (95% CI 1.68 to 11.85), 6.63 (95% CI 4.03 to 10.92), and 6.14 (95% CI 2.85 to 13.21) for eGFR ≥90, 60 to 89, and <60, respectively, as compared with CACS 0. Further, CACS improved discrimination and reclassification beyond Framingham 10-year risk score (FRS) (AUC: 0.70 vs 0.64; category free-NRI: 0.51, all p <0.001) for predicting MACE in patients with impaired renal function (eGFR < 90). In conclusion, CACS improved risk stratification and provided incremental value beyond FRS for predicting MACE, irrespective of eGFR status.