Validity of diagnostic coding within the General Practice Research Database: a systematic review

Usefulness and caveats of real-world data for research on hypertension and its association with cardiovascular or renal disease in Japan

The role of real-world data, collected from clinical practice rather than clinical trials, has become increasingly important for investigating real-life situations, such as treatment effects. In Japan, evidence on hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, and kidney diseases using real-world data is increasing. These studies are mainly based on "the insurer-based real-world data" collected as electronic records, including data from health check-ups and medical claims such as JMDC database, DeSC database, the Japan Health Insurance Association (JHIA) database, or National Databases of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups (NDB). Based on the insurer-based real-world data, traditional but finely stratified associations between hypertension and cardiovascular or kidney diseases can be explored. The insurer-based real-world data are also useful for pharmacoepidemiological studies that capture the distribution and trends of drug prescriptions; combined with annual health check-up data, the effectiveness of drugs can also be examined. Despite the usefulness of insurer-based real-world data collected as electronic records from a wide range of populations, we must be cautious about several points, including issues regarding population uncertainty, the validity of cardiovascular outcomes, the accuracy of blood pressure, traceability, and biases, such as indication and immortal biases. While a large sample size is considered a strength of real-world data, we must keep in mind that it does not overcome the problem of systematic error. This review discusses the usefulness and pitfalls of insurer-based real-world data in Japan through recent examples of Japanese research on hypertension and its association with cardiovascular or kidney disease.

No trend to rising rates: A review of Parkinson's prevalence studies in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Of the neurodegenerative diseases, Parkinson's disease is recognised to have the fastest growing prevalence. It is unclear whether this is due to the ageing global population alone, with several environmental factors increasingly implicated in changing prevalence rates. Large data sets have been used nationally and globally to help predict future disease burden. However, the reliability of such sources is yet unknown for Parkinson's disease.

SUMMARY

This review discusses the methods used in all published UK prevalence studies conducted to date. Direct comparison between prevalence figures obtained from the 10 to discussed prevalence studies is precluded due to differences in methodology for case ascertainment and diagnosis. Age adjusted estimates vary from 105/100,000 to 168/100,000.

KEY MESSAGES

These studies demonstrate no overall trend in changing prevalence figures between 1961 and 2007. No difference in prevalence trends were seen for those living in rural or urban areas. Differences between ethnic groups, for example, remains an under explored area.

Cardiovascular disease in connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

OBJECTIVES

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether patients with connective tissue disease (CTD)-associated interstitial lung diseases (ILD) have an increased prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease and to validate associated risk factors.

METHODS

The PRISMA guidelines and PICO model were followed. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library databases, Scopus, and Directory of Open Access Journals from inception to April 2024.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies comprising of 12,520 patients were included. Patients with CTD-ILD had a significantly increased risk of CV disease than patients with CTD (relative risk [RR] = 1.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.41, 1.93), which are related to the proportion of men (P = 0.001) and the proportion of smokers (P = 0.045). Subgroup analysis found that patients with CTD-ILD had a higher risk of heart failure (RR = 2.84, 95 % CI: 1.50, 5.39), arrhythmia (RR = 1.55, 95 % CI: 1.22, 1.97) than patients with CTD. Another subgroup analysis showed that RA-ILD and SSc-ILD were associated with an increased risk of CV disease, but not IIM-ILD and MCTD-ILD (RA-ILD: RR = 2.19, 95 % CI: 1.27, 3.80; SSc-ILD: RR = 1.53, 95 % CI: 1.29, 1.82). Besides, patients with CTD-ILD had a higher prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (RR = 2.48, 95 % CI: 1.69, 3.63) than patients with CTD.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CTD-ILD had a 1.65 times increased risk of CV than patients with CTD-non-ILD, with increased prevalence of heart failure and arrhythmia. The risk of CV disease in SSc-ILD and RA-ILD is increased and we should pay more attention to male smokers. In addition, compared with CTD patients, CTD-ILD patients had a higher risk of pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Levothyroxine Treatment of Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Importance: There is uncertainty as to whether treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Objectives: To determine whether levothyroxine replacement therapy decreases the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among individuals with SCH defined as having a thyrotropin (TSH) level between 5 and 10 mU/L. Design: We conducted a population-based cohort study using a prevalent new-user design. Setting: The study utilized data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Participants: We identified a base cohort of individuals aged ≥18 years with incident SCH defined as having at least two TSH levels between 5 and 10 mU/L within one year between 1998 and 2018. We matched 76,946 levothyroxine treated to 76,946 untreated individuals based on age, sex, calendar time, duration of SCH, and time-conditional propensity score. We compared individuals with SCH treated with levothyroxine with individuals with no treatment. Exposure: Levothyroxine treatment versus no treatment. Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome, MACE, was defined as a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular-related mortality. Results: The mean age of the study cohort was 62.8 years, and 76.5% were women. During a median follow-up time of 1.6 years (interquartile range: 0.5-4.2), the incidence rate for MACE among individuals treated with levothyroxine was 12.8 per 1000 person-years; confidence interval (CI): 12.2-13.3 and 13.9 per 1000 person-years; CI: 13.4-14.3 among nontreated individuals. Levothyroxine treatment was associated with a small decreased risk of MACE (hazard ratio: 0.88; CI: 0.83-0.93). Conclusions: Levothyroxine treatment of SCH was associated with a small decreased risk of MACE. However, given the observational nature of the study, residual confounding should be considered in the interpretation of this finding.

The use of locum doctors in the NHS: understanding and improving the quality and safety of care

Background

The use of locum doctors in the National Health Service is widely believed to have increased, and there have been widespread and sustained concerns among policy-makers, healthcare providers, professional associations and professional regulators about the quality/safety, cost and effective use of locum doctors.

Objectives

To provide evidence on the extent, quality and safety of medical locum practice and the implications of medical locum working for health service organisation and delivery in primary and secondary care in the English National Health Service, to support policy and practice.

Design

Four interlinked work packages involving surveys of National Health Service trusts and of general practices in England; semistructured interviews and focus groups across 11 healthcare organisations in England; analysis of existing routine data sets on the medical workforce in primary care and in National Health Service trusts in England from National Health Service Digital and National Health Service Improvement; and analysis of data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in primary care and of electronic patient record data from two National Health Service hospitals in secondary care.

Results

In primary care, about 6% of general practice medical consultations were undertaken by locums in 2010 and this had risen slightly to about 7.1% in 2021. In National Health Service trusts (mostly secondary care and mental health), about 4.4% of medical staff full-time equivalent was provided by locum doctors. But those overall national rates of locum use hide a great deal of variation. In primary care, we found the National Health Service Digital workforce returns showed the rate of locum use by Clinical Commissioning Group varied from 1% to almost 31%. Among National Health Service trusts, the reported rate of locum use varied from < 1% to almost 16%. We found that there was poor awareness of and adherence to national guidance on locum working arrangements produced by National Health Service England. Our research showed that locum working can have adverse consequences for the quality and safety of care, but that such consequences were probably more likely to result from the organisational setting and the working arrangements than they were from the locum doctors themselves and their competence, clinical practice or behaviours.

Limitations

Our research was hampered in some respects by the COVID pandemic which both resulted in some delays and other challenges. Our efforts to use electronic patient record data in secondary care to explore locum doctor working were stymied by the problems of data access and quality.

Conclusions

Locum doctors are a key component of the medical workforce in the National Health Service, and provide necessary flexibility and additional capacity for healthcare organisations and services. We found that the extent of reliance on locum doctors varied considerably, but that an over-reliance on locums for service provision was undesirable. Some differences in practice and performance between locum and permanent doctors were found, but these seemed often to arise from organisational characteristics. We found that patients were more concerned with the clinical expertise and skills of the doctor they saw than whether they were a locum or not. Organisational arrangements for locum working could be improved in many respects.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128349) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 37. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Is seborrhoeic dermatitis of infancy and childhood related to maternal history of seborrhoeic dermatitis? A large population-based cohort study from the UK

BACKGROUND

The pathophysiology of seborrhoeic dermatitis (SebD) is complex and is likely to be related to an interplay of the microbial colonization of the skin and local immunity. There are also genetic components to the illness. At least two forms of SebD exist, infantile (ISebD), which has onset early in life, and SebD with later onset.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to improve our understanding of SebD by evaluating whether maternal history of SebD is associated with increased risk of ISebD or childhood-onset SebD (CSebD, with onset after 5 years of life).

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of mother-child pairs using data from a large UK primary care electronic medical records database.

RESULTS

We analysed 1 023 140 children with linked maternal data. The mean (SD) time of follow-up for the children was 10.2 (7.9) years for a total follow-up of more than 10 million person-years. Proportional hazards models [HRs (95% confidence intervals)] were used to examine the association between presence of SebD in mothers and SebD in the child. Maternal history of SebD was associated with development of SebD [1.99 (1.91-2.09)], ISebD [1.86 (1.74-1.99)] and CSebD [2.12 (1.97-2.29)] in their children. However, ISebD in a child was not associated with that child later developing CSebD [0.91 (0.82-1.01)].

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal history of SebD is a risk factor for the development of SebD in children. While we cannot fully differentiate SebD risk due to mother's genetics (inheritance) from a newborn's environment, our results lend credence to the possible role of genetics in SebD. A child with ISebD does not appear to be at risk for developing CSebD.

Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitors and the Risk of Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disease Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

The use of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors may be associated with an increased risk of gallbladder and bile duct disease among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study using an active comparator, new-user design. We used data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify patients newly treated with either a DPP-4 inhibitor or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor between January 2013 and December 2020. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models with propensity score fine stratification weighting to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident gallbladder and bile duct disease associated with DPP-4 inhibitors compared to SGLT-2 inhibitors.

RESULTS

DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with a 46% increased risk of gallbladder and bile duct disease (4.3 vs. 3.0 events per 1000 person-years, HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.17-1.83). At 6 months and 1 year, 745 and 948 patients, respectively, would need to be treated with DPP-4 inhibitors for one patient to experience a gallbladder or bile duct disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based cohort study, the use of DPP-4 inhibitors, when compared with SGLT-2 inhibitors, was associated with a moderately increased risk of gallbladder and bile duct disease among patients with type 2 diabetes. This outcome was still quite rare with a high number needed to harm at 6 months and 1 year.

Population-Based Study of Alcohol-Related Liver Disease in England in 2001-2018: Influence of Socioeconomic Position

INTRODUCTION

England has seen an increase in deaths due to alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) since 2001. We studied the influence of socioeconomic position on the incidence of ALD and the mortality after ALD diagnosis in England in 2001-2018.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study based on health records contained within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink covering primary care, secondary care, cause of death registration, and deprivation of neighborhood areas in 18.8 million residents. We estimated incidence rate and incidence rate ratios of ALD and hazard ratios of mortality.

RESULTS

ALD was diagnosed in 57,784 individuals with a median age of 54 years and of whom 43% had cirrhosis. The ALD incidence rate increased by 65% between 2001 and 2018 in England to reach 56.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2018. The ALD incidence was 3-fold higher in those from the most deprived quintile vs those from the least deprived quintile (incidence rate ratio 3.30, 95% confidence interval 3.21-3.38), with reducing inequality at older than at younger ages. For 55- to 74-year-olds, there was a notable increase in the incidence rate between 2001 and 2018, from 96.1 to 158 per 100,000 person-years in the most deprived quintile and from 32.5 to 70.0 in the least deprived quintile. After ALD diagnosis, the mortality risk was higher for patients from the most deprived quintile vs those from the least deprived quintile (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.27), and this ratio did not change during 2001-2018.

DISCUSSION

The increasing ALD incidence in England is a greater burden on individuals of low economic position compared with that on those of high socioeconomic position. This finding highlights ALD as a contributor to inequality in health.

Antihypertensive Medications and Eczematous Dermatitis in Older Adults

Importance

Rates of physician-diagnosed eczema have been increasing among older adults, but little is known regarding the pathophysiologic processes and best treatments in this subgroup. Preliminary data suggest that medications-antihypertensive medications in particular-may contribute to eczematous dermatitis; however, there are limited population-based data on the proportion of eczematous dermatitis diagnoses among older adults that may be attributed to antihypertensive drugs.

Objectives

To determine whether antihypertensive drug use is associated with eczematous dermatitis in older adults.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This was a longitudinal cohort study of a population-based sample of individuals 60 years and older without a diagnosis of eczematous dermatitis at baseline. It was conducted at primary care practices participating in The Health Improvement Network in the United Kingdom from January 1, 1994, to January 1, 2015. Data analyses were performed from January 6, 2020, to February 6, 2024.

Exposure

Exposure date by first prescription for an antihypertensive drug within each drug class.

Main outcome measures

Newly active eczematous dermatitis was based on the first date for 1 of the 5 most common eczema codes used in a previously validated algorithm.

Results

Among the total study sample of 1 561 358 older adults (mean [SD] age, 67 [9] years; 54% female), the overall prevalence of eczematous dermatitis was 6.7% during a median (IQR) follow-up duration of 6 (3-11) years. Eczematous dermatitis incidence was higher among participants receiving antihypertensive drugs than those who did not (12 vs 9 of 1000 person-years of follow-up). Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models found that participants who received any antihypertensive drugs had a 29% increased hazard rate of any eczematous dermatitis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.26-1.31). When assessing each antihypertensive drug class individually, the largest effect size was observed for diuretic drugs (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.19-1.24) and calcium channel blockers (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.14-1.18), and the smallest effect sizes were for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04) and β-blockers (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that antihypertensive drugs were associated with a small increased rate of eczematous dermatitis, with effect sizes largest for calcium channel blockers and diuretic drugs, and smallest for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and β-blockers. Although additional research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying the association, these data could be helpful to clinicians to guide management when a patient presents with eczematous dermatitis in older age.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in England from 2008 to 2018: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Owing to discrepancies in methodologies and how idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is diagnosed it is challenging to establish a consistent understanding of the disease burden In the UK, over 10 years ago, the incidence and prevalence of IPF were reported as 2.8-8.7 per 100 000 person-years (from 2000 to 2012) and 39 per 100 000 persons (in 2012), respectively. Here, we estimated the incidence and prevalence of IPF in England from 2008 to 2018 and investigated IPF mortality.

METHODS

Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) linked datasets, we estimated incidence and prevalence using four validated diagnostic-code-based algorithms. Using the registered number of deaths (from Office of National Statistics) with the underlying cause being recorded as IPF, we estimated IPF mortality for the same period.

RESULTS

Using Aurum-based definitions, incidence increased over time by 100% for Aurum narrow (3-6.1 per 100 000 person-years) and by 25% for Aurum broad (22.4-28.6 per 100 000 person-years). However, using HES-based definitions showed a decrease in incidence over the same period and lay between the two extremes derived for Aurum-based definition. IPF mortality in 2018 was 7.9 per 100 000 person-years and increased by 53% between 2008 and 2018.

INTERPRETATION

When using best-case definitions, incidence rose throughout the study period. Scaling this to England's population (2018), our best estimate would be in the range of 8000-9000 new cases per year which is higher than previously reported estimates (5000-6000). This increased burden in the new cases of IPF each year impacts future health service planning and resource allocation.

The causal association between maternal depression, anxiety, and infection in pregnancy and neurodevelopmental disorders among 410 461 children: a population study using quasi-negative control cohorts and sibling analysis

BACKGROUND

To address if the long-standing association between maternal infection, depression/anxiety in pregnancy, and offspring neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) is causal, we conducted two negative-control studies.

METHODS

Four primary care cohorts of UK children (pregnancy, 1 and 2 years prior to pregnancy, and siblings) born between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2017 were constructed. NDD included autism/autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, intellectual disability, cerebral palsy, and epilepsy. Maternal exposures included depression/anxiety and/or infection. Maternal (age, smoking status, comorbidities, body mass index, NDD); child (gender, ethnicity, birth year); and area-level (region and level of deprivation) confounders were captured. The NDD incidence rate among (1) children exposed during or outside of pregnancy and (2) siblings discordant for exposure in pregnancy was compared using Cox-regression models, unadjusted and adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

The analysis included 410 461 children of 297 426 mothers and 2 793 018 person-years of follow-up with 8900 NDD cases (incidence rate = 3.2/1000 person years). After adjustments, depression and anxiety consistently associated with NDD (pregnancy-adjusted HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.46-1.72; 1-year adj. HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.39-1.60; 2-year adj. HR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.50-1.74); and to a lesser extent, of infection (pregnancy adj. HR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.10-1.22; 1-year adj. HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.14-1.27; 2-year adj. HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.25). NDD risk did not differ among siblings discordant for pregnancy exposure to mental illness HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.77-1.21 or infection HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.08.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal risk appears to be unspecific to pregnancy: our study provided no evidence of a specific, and therefore causal, link between in-utero exposure to infection, common mental illness, and later development of NDD.

Trends of use and characterisation of anti-dementia drugs users: a large multinational-network population-based study

BACKGROUND

An updated time-trend analysis of anti-dementia drugs (ADDs) is lacking. The aim of this study is to assess the incident rate (IR) of ADD in individuals with dementia using real-world data.

SETTING

Primary care data (country/database) from the UK/CPRD-GOLD (2007-20), Spain/SIDIAP (2010-20) and the Netherlands/IPCI (2008-20), standardised to a common data model.

METHODS

Cohort study. Participants: dementia patients ≥40 years old with ≥1 year of previous data. Follow-up: until the end of the study period, transfer out of the catchment area, death or incident prescription of rivastigmine, galantamine, donepezil or memantine. Other variables: age/sex, type of dementia, comorbidities. Statistics: overall and yearly age/sex IR, with 95% confidence interval, per 100,000 person-years (IR per 105 PY (95%CI)).

RESULTS

We identified a total of (incident anti-dementia users/dementia patients) 41,024/110,642 in UK/CPRD-GOLD, 51,667/134,927 in Spain/SIDIAP and 2,088/17,559 in the Netherlands/IPCI.In the UK, IR (per 105 PY (95%CI)) of ADD decreased from 2007 (30,829 (28,891-32,862)) to 2010 (17,793 (17,083-18,524)), then increased up to 2019 (31,601 (30,483 to 32,749)) and decrease in 2020 (24,067 (23,021-25,148)). In Spain, IR (per 105 PY (95%CI)) of ADD decreased by 72% from 2010 (51,003 (49,199-52,855)) to 2020 (14,571 (14,109-15,043)). In the Netherlands, IR (per 105 PY (95%CI)) of ADD decreased by 77% from 2009 (21,151 (14,967-29,031)) to 2020 (4763 (4176-5409)). Subjects aged ≥65-79 years and men (in the UK and the Netherlands) initiated more frequently an ADD.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of dementia remains highly heterogeneous. Further consensus in the pharmacological management of patients living with dementia is urgently needed.

The Time to Inflammatory Bowel Disease Diagnosis for Patients Presenting with Abdominal Symptoms in Primary Care and its Association with Emergency Hospital Admissions and Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) presenting to primary care may experience diagnostic delays. We aimed to evaluate this and assess whether time to diagnosis is associated with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using English primary care data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, linked to hospital admission data was undertaken. Patients were followed from the first IBD-related presentation in primary care to IBD diagnosis. Associations of time to diagnosis exceeding a year were assessed using a Robust Poisson regression model. Associations between time to diagnosis and IBD-related emergency hospital admissions and surgery were assessed using Poisson and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 28 092 IBD patients, 60% had ulcerative colitis (UC) and 40% had Crohn's disease (CD). The median age was 43 (interquartile range, 30-58) years and 51.9% were female. Median time to diagnosis was 15.6 (interquartile range, 4.3-28.1) months. Factors associated with more than a year to diagnosis included female sex (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.21-1.26), older age (aRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; comparing >70 years of age with 18-30 years of age), obesity (aRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06), smoking (aRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08), CD compared with UC (aRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.11-1.16), and a fecal calprotectin over 500 μg/g (aRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95). The highest quartile of time to diagnosis compared with the lowest was associated with IBD-related emergency admissions (incidence rate ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11).

CONCLUSION

Longer times to IBD diagnoses were associated with being female, advanced age, obesity, smoking, and Crohn's disease. More IBD-related emergency admissions were observed in patients with a prolonged time to diagnosis.

Liver function tests in patients with hypertension in primary care: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Liver function tests (LFTs) are frequently used to monitor patients with hypertension in UK primary care. Evidence is lacking on whether testing improves outcomes.

AIM

To estimate the diagnostic accuracy of LFTs in patients with hypertension and determine downstream consequences of testing.

DESIGN & SETTING

Prospective study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

METHOD

In total, 30 000 patients with hypertension who had LFTs in 2015 were randomly selected from CPRD. The diagnostic accuracy measures for eight LFT analytes and an overall LFT panel were calculated against the reference standard of liver disease. Rates of consultations, blood tests, and referrals within 6 months following testing were measured.

RESULTS

The 1-year incidence of liver disease in patients with hypertension was 0.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.4% to 0.6%). Sensitivity and specificity of an LFT panel were modest: 61.3% (95% CI = 53.1% to 69.0%) and 73.8% (95% CI = 73.1% to 74.3%), respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the eight individual LFT analytes were low ranging from 0.2% to 8.9%. Among patients who did not develop liver disease, mean number of consultations, referrals, and tests were higher in the 6 months following false-positives at 10.5, 0.7 and 29.8, respectively, compared with true-negatives: 8.6, 0.6, and 19.8.

CONCLUSION

PPVs of LFTs in primary care were low, with high rates of false-positive results and increased rates of subsequent consultations, referrals, and blood testing. Avoiding LFTs for routine monitoring could potentially reduce patients' anxiety, GP workload, and healthcare costs.

Glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonists and the risk of skin cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes: Population-based cohort study

AIMS

The objective of this study was to determine whether the use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) is associated with an increased risk of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer, separately, compared with the use of sulfonylureas among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Using the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-2019), we assembled two new-user active comparator cohorts. In the first cohort assessing melanoma as the outcome, 11,786 new users of GLP-1 RAs were compared with 208,519 new users of sulfonylureas. In the second cohort assessing nonmelanoma skin cancer as the outcome, 11,774 new users of GLP-1 RAs were compared with 207,788 new users of sulfonylureas. Cox proportional hazards models weighted using propensity score fine stratification were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer, respectively.

RESULTS

Compared with sulfonylureas, GLP-1 RAs were not associated with an increased risk of either melanoma (42.6 vs. 43.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.53-1.75) or nonmelanoma skin cancer (243.9 vs. 229.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.80-1.33). There was no evidence of an association between cumulative duration of use with either melanoma or nonmelanoma skin cancer. Consistent results were observed in secondary and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based cohort study, GLP-1 RAs were not associated with an increased risk of melanoma or nonmelanoma skin cancer, compared with sulfonylureas.

Comparing the clinical practice and prescribing safety of locum and permanent doctors: observational study of primary care consultations in England

BACKGROUND

Temporary doctors, known as locums, are a key component of the medical workforce in the NHS but evidence on differences in quality and safety between locum and permanent doctors is limited. We aimed to examine differences in the clinical practice, and prescribing safety for locum and permanent doctors working in primary care in England.

METHODS

We accessed electronic health care records (EHRs) for 3.5 million patients from the CPRD GOLD database with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2022. We used multi-level mixed effects logistic regression to compare consultations with locum and permanent GPs for several patient outcomes including general practice revisits; prescribing of antibiotics; strong opioids; hypnotics; A&E visits; emergency hospital admissions; admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions; test ordering; referrals; and prescribing safety indicators while controlling for patient and practice characteristics.

RESULTS

Consultations with locum GPs were 22% more likely to involve a prescription for an antibiotic (OR = 1.22 (1.21 to 1.22)), 8% more likely to involve a prescription for a strong opioid (OR = 1.08 (1.06 to 1.09)), 4% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit on the same day (OR = 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08)) and 5% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit within 1 to 7 days (OR = 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)). Consultations with a locum were 12% less likely to lead to a practice revisit within 7 days (OR = 0.88 (0.87 to 0.88)), 4% less likely to involve a prescription for a hypnotic (OR = 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)), 15% less likely to involve a referral (OR = 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86)) and 19% less likely to involve a test (OR = 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82)). We found no evidence that emergency admissions, ACSC admissions and eight out of the eleven prescribing safety indicators were different if patients were seen by a locum or a permanent GP.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite existing concerns, the clinical practice and performance of locum GPs did not appear to be systematically different from that of permanent GPs. The practice and performance of both locum and permanent GPs is likely shaped by the organisational setting and systems within which they work.

Clinically apparent Helicobacter pylori infection and the risk of incident Alzheimer's disease: A population-based nested case-control study

INTRODUCTION

Our population-based study assessed whether clinically apparent Helicobacter pylori infection (CAHPI) is associated with the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD).

METHODS

We assembled a population-based cohort of all dementia-free subjects in the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (UK CPRD), aged ≥50 years (1988-2017). Using a nested case-control approach, we matched each newly developed case of AD with 40 controls. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of AD associated with CAHPI compared with no CAHPI during ≥2 years before the index date. We also used salmonellosis as a negative control exposure.

RESULTS

Among 4,262,092 dementia-free subjects, 40,455 developed AD after a mean 11 years of follow-up. CAHPI was associated with an increased risk of AD (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.21) compared with no CAHPI. Salmonellosis was not associated with the risk of AD (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.82-1.29).

DISCUSSION

CAHPI was associated with a moderately increased risk of AD.

HIGHLIGHTS

CAHPI was associated with an 11% increased risk of AD in subjects aged ≥50 years. The increase in the risk of AD reached a peak of 24% a decade after CAHPI onset. There was no major effect modification by age or sex. Sensitivity analyses addressing several potential biases led to consistent results.

Pooling of primary care electronic health record (EHR) data on Huntington's disease (HD) and cancer: establishing comparability of two large UK databases

OBJECTIVES

To explore whether UK primary care databases arising from two different software systems can be feasibly combined, by comparing rates of Huntington's disease (HD, which is rare) and 14 common cancers in the two databases, as well as characteristics of people with these conditions.

DESIGN

Descriptive study.

SETTING

Primary care electronic health records from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and CPRD Aurum databases, with linked hospital admission and death registration data.

PARTICIPANTS

4986 patients with HD and 1 294 819 with an incident cancer between 1990 and 2019.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence and prevalence of HD by calendar period, age group and region, and annual age-standardised incidence of 14 common cancers in each database, and in a subset of 'overlapping' practices which contributed to both databases. Characteristics of patients with HD or incident cancer: medical history, recent prescribing, healthcare contacts and database follow-up.

RESULTS

Incidence and prevalence of HD were slightly higher in CPRD GOLD than CPRD Aurum, but with similar trends over time. Cancer incidence in the two databases differed between 1990 and 2000, but converged and was very similar thereafter. Participants in each database were most similar in terms of medical history (median standardised difference, MSD 0.03 (IQR 0.01-0.03)), recent prescribing (MSD 0.06 (0.03-0.10)) and demographics and general health variables (MSD 0.05 (0.01-0.09)). Larger differences were seen for healthcare contacts (MSD 0.27 (0.10-0.41)), and database follow-up (MSD 0.39 (0.19-0.56)).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in cancer incidence trends between 1990 and 2000 may relate to use of a practice-level data quality filter (the 'up-to-standard' date) in CPRD GOLD only. As well as the impact of data curation methods, differences in underlying data models can make it more challenging to define exactly equivalent clinical concepts in each database. Researchers should be aware of these potential sources of variability when planning combined database studies and interpreting results.

Effect of timeframes to define long term conditions and sociodemographic factors on prevalence of multimorbidity using disease code frequency in primary care electronic health records: retrospective study

Objective

To determine the extent to which the choice of timeframe used to define a long term condition affects the prevalence of multimorbidity and whether this varies with sociodemographic factors.

Design

Retrospective study of disease code frequency in primary care electronic health records.

Data sources

Routinely collected, general practice, electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum were used.

Main outcome measures

Adults (≥18 years) in England who were registered in the database on 1 January 2020 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more conditions from a set of 212 long term conditions. Multimorbidity prevalence was compared using five definitions. Any disease code recorded in the electronic health records for 212 conditions was used as the reference definition. Additionally, alternative definitions for 41 conditions requiring multiple codes (where a single disease code could indicate an acute condition) or a single code for the remaining 171 conditions were as follows: two codes at least three months apart; two codes at least 12 months apart; three codes within any 12 month period; and any code in the past 12 months. Mixed effects regression was used to calculate the expected change in multimorbidity status and number of long term conditions according to each definition and associations with patient age, gender, ethnic group, and socioeconomic deprivation.

Results

9 718 573 people were included in the study, of whom 7 183 662 (73.9%) met the definition of multimorbidity where a single code was sufficient to define a long term condition. Variation was substantial in the prevalence according to timeframe used, ranging from 41.4% (n=4 023 023) for three codes in any 12 month period, to 55.2% (n=5 366 285) for two codes at least three months apart. Younger people (eg, 50-75% probability for 18-29 years v 1-10% for ≥80 years), people of some minority ethnic groups (eg, people in the Other ethnic group had higher probability than the South Asian ethnic group), and people living in areas of lower socioeconomic deprivation were more likely to be re-classified as not multimorbid when using definitions requiring multiple codes.

Conclusions

Choice of timeframe to define long term conditions has a substantial effect on the prevalence of multimorbidity in this nationally representative sample. Different timeframes affect prevalence for some people more than others, highlighting the need to consider the impact of bias in the choice of method when defining multimorbidity.

Fracture patterns in adult onset type 1 diabetes and associated risk factors - A nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the hazard ratios (HR) for various fracture sites and identify associated risk factors in a cohort of relatively healthy adult people with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes (T1D).

METHODS

The study utilized data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (1987-2017). Participants included people aged 20 and above with a T1D diagnosis code (n = 3281) and a new prescription for insulin. Controls without diabetes were matched based on sex, year of birth, and practice. Cox regression analysis was conducted to estimate HRs for any fracture, major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), and peripheral fractures (lower-arm and lower-leg) in people with T1D compared to controls. Risk factors for T1D were examined and included sex, age, diabetic complications, medication usage, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), hypoglycemia, previous fractures, falls, and alcohol consumption. Furthermore, T1D was stratified by duration of disease and presence of microvascular complications.

RESULTS

The proportion of any fracture was higher in T1D (10.8 %) than controls (7.3). Fully adjusted HRs for any fracture (HR: 1.43, CI95%: 1.17-1.74), MOFs (HR: 1.46, CI95%: 1.04-2.05), and lower-leg fractures (HR: 1.37, CI95%: 1.01-1.85) were statistically significantly increased in people with T1D compared to controls. The primary risk factor across all fracture sites in T1D was a previous fracture. Additional risk factors at different sites included previous falls (HR: 1.64, CI95%: 1.17-2.31), antidepressant use (HR: 1.34, CI95%: 1.02-1.76), and anxiolytic use (HR: 1.54, CI95%: 1.08-2.29) for any fracture; being female (HR: 1.65, CI95%: 1.14-2.38) for MOFs; the presence of retinopathy (HR: 1.47, CI95%: 1.02-2.11) and previous falls (HR: 2.04, CI95%: 1.16-3.59) for lower-arm and lower-leg fractures, respectively. Lipid-lowering medication use decreased the risk of MOFs (HR: 0.66, CI95%: 0.44-0.99). Stratification of T1D by disease duration showed that the relative risk of any fracture in T1D did not increase with longer diabetes duration (0-4 years: HR: 1.52, CI95%: 1.23-1.87; 5-9 years: HR: 1.30, CI95%: 0.99-1.71; <10 years: HR: 1.07, CI95%: 0.74-1.55). Similar patterns were observed for other fracture sites. Moreover, the occurrence of microvascular complications in T1D was linked to a heightened risk of fractures in comparison to controls. However, when considering the T1D cohort independently, the association was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

In a cohort of relatively healthy and newly diagnosed people with T1D HRs for any fracture, MOFs, and lower-leg fractures compared to controls were increased. A previous fracture was the most consistent risk factor for a subsequent fracture, whereas retinopathy was the only diabetes related one. We postulate a potential initial fracture risk, succeeded by a subsequent risk reduction, which might potentially increase in later years due to the accumulation of complications and other factors.

Scoliosis Without Fusion and Increased Risk of Early Medical and Surgery-Related Complications After Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity-score Analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is a paucity of literature that examines how the abnormal spinopelvic alignment of scoliosis affects outcomes after total hip arthroplasty (THA) in the absence of a lumbar fusion.

METHODS

Patients with a history of scoliosis (idiopathic, adolescent, degenerative, or juvenile) without fusion and those without a history of scoliosis who underwent primary THA were identified using a large national database. Ninety-day incidence of various medical complications, emergency department (ED) visit, and readmission and 1-year incidence of surgery-related complications and cost of care were evaluated in both the scoliosis and control cohorts. Propensity score matching was used to control for patient demographic factors and comorbidities as covariates.

RESULTS

After propensity matching, 21,992 and 219,920 patients were identified in the scoliosis and control cohorts, respectively. Patients with scoliosis were at increased risk of several 90-day medical complications, including pulmonary embolism (odds ratio [OR] 1.96; P < 0.001), deep vein thrombosis (1.49; P < 0.001), transfusion (OR, 1.13; P < 0.001), pneumonia (OR, 1.37; P < 0.001), myocardial infarction (OR, 1.38; P = 0.008), sepsis (OR, 1.59; P < 0.001), acute anemia (OR, 1.21; P < 0.001), and urinary tract infection (OR, 1.1; P = 0.001). Patients with a history of scoliosis were at increased 1-year risk of revision (OR, 1.31; P < 0.001), periprosthetic joint infection (OR, 1.16; P = 0.0089), dislocation (OR, 1.581; P < 0.001), and aseptic loosening (OR, 1.39; P < 0.001) after THA. Patients with scoliosis without a history of fusion were more likely to return to the emergency department (OR, 1.26; P < 0.001) and be readmitted (OR, 1.78; P < 0.001) within 90 days of THA.

DISCUSSION

Patients with even a remote history of scoliosis without fusion are at increased risk of 90-day medical and surgery-related complications after hip arthroplasty. Hip and spine surgeons should collaborate in future studies to best understand how to optimize these patients for their adult reconstructive procedures.

Prescribing trends of proton pump inhibitors and histamine blockers among children in the United Kingdom (1998-2019): A population-based assessment

PURPOSE

To describe the prescribing trends of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and H2 receptor antagonists (H2 RAs) among children with gastroesophageal reflux in the United Kingdom between 1998 and 2019.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink that included all children aged ≤18 years with a first ever diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux between 1998 and 2019. Using negative binomial regression, we estimated crude and adjusted annual prescription rates per 1000 person-years and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PPIs and H2 RAs. We also assessed rate ratios of PPIs and H2 RAs prescription rates to examine changes in prescribing over time.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 177 477 children with a first ever diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux during the study period. The median age was 13 years (IQR: 1, 17) among children prescribed PPIs and 0.2 years (IQR: 0.1, 0.6) among those prescribed H2 RAs. The total prescription rate of all GERD drugs was 1468 prescriptions per 1000 person-years (PYs) (95% CI 1463-1472). Overall, PPIs had a higher prescription rate (815 per 1000 PYs, 95% CI 812-818) than H2 RAs (653 per 1000 PYs 95% CI 650-655). Sex- and age-adjusted rate ratios of 2019 versus 1998 demonstrated a 10% increase and a 76% decrease in the prescription rates of PPIs and H2 RAs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Prescription rates for PPIs increased, especially during the first half of the study period, while prescription rates for H2 RA decreased over time.

Treatment patterns in essential tremor: Real-world evidence from a United Kingdom and France primary care database

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Essential tremor (ET) is one of the most common neurological disorders, but information on treatment pattern is still scant. The aim of this study was to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, and determinants of drug use in patients with newly diagnosed ET in France and the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Incident cases of ET diagnosed between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018 with 2 years of follow-up were identified by using The Health Improvement Network (THIN®) general practice database. During the follow-up, we assessed the daily prevalence of use and potential switches from first-line to second-line treatment or other lines of treatment. Logistic regression models were conducted to assess the effect of demographic and clinical characteristics on the likelihood of receiving ET treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 2957 and 3249 patients were selected in the United Kingdom and France, respectively. Among ET patients, drug use increased from 12 months to 1 month prior the date of index diagnosis (ID). After ID, nearly 40% of patients received at least one ET treatment, but during follow-up drug use decreased and at the end of the follow-up approximately 20% of patients were still on treatment. Among treated patients, ≤10% maintained the same treatment throughout the entire follow-up, nearly 20% switched, and 40%-75% interrupted any treatment. Results from the multivariate analysis revealed that, both in France and the United Kingdom, patients receiving multiple concomitant therapies and affected by psychiatric conditions were more likely to receive an ET medication.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that ET is an undertreated disease with a lower-than-expected number of patients receiving and maintaining pharmacological treatment. Misclassification of ET diagnosis should be acknowledged; thus, results require cautious interpretation.

Effects of Metformin Therapy on Thyroid Volume and Functions in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Single-center Prospective Study

OBJECTIVE

Patients with impaired glucose metabolism have increased thyroid volume and a higher prevalence of nodules. Yet, some studies show that there is an improvement in these thyroid parameters after diabetes treatment. Our observational study aimed to reveal the effect of treatment on thyroid function, thyroid volume, and the presence of nodules in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients who were started on metformin treatment.

METHODS

Euthyroid and subclinically hypothyroid patients with a serum TSH level of <10 mU/L, who were newly diagnosed with T2DM and started on metformin as an antidiabetic treatment and not used any thyroid medication previously, were included in our study. Patients' characteristics were recorded. Baseline and 6th-month serum thyroid function tests were scheduled. Baseline and 6th-month thyroid gland characteristics were examined by thyroid ultrasonography.

RESULTS

A total of 101 (37 males, 64 females) newly diagnosed T2DM patients with euthyroid (n=95) or subclinical hypothyroidism (n=6) were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 53.02 ± 11.9 years, and the mean BMI was 29.60 ± 3.9 kg/m2. Fifty-two (52%) patients were classified as obese. Body weight, BMI, serum TSH, ALT, Anti-TPO levels, and thyroid volume decreased significantly in the 6th-month compared to baseline values (p = 0.000; p = 0.000; p = 0.011; p = 0.022; p = 0.000, respectively). Serum anti-Tg, fT4, fT3 levels, and thyroid nodule count did not change significantly. A high agreement was found between the baseline and 6thmonth nodule counts (gamma= 0.886; p < 0.001) and the presence of multi-nodularity in the thyroid (gamma= 0.941; p < 0.001), but no significant change was observed. Anti-TPO levels showed a significant decrease in both with and without obesity groups at the end of 6 months (p = 0.003, p = 0.009, respectively). Serum TSH level decreased significantly only in non-obese subjects (p = 0.004), and thyroid volume decreased significantly only in obese subjects (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that metformin treatment significantly reduces body weight, BMI, thyroid volume, and serum TSH, ALT, and Anti-TPO levels in patients with newly diagnosed T2DM. Moreover, serum TSH levels showed a significant decrease in non-obese subjects, while thyroid volume showed a significant decrease in obese subjects.

Presence of Breast Cancer Information Recorded in United Kingdom Primary Care Databases: Comparison of CPRD Aurum and CPRD GOLD (Companion Paper 1)

Purpose

To evaluate the presence of data elements related to diagnosis and treatment of malignant breast cancer in CPRD Aurum compared to those in the previously validated CPRD GOLD.

Methods

Females in CPRD Aurum or GOLD with a first-time code for malignant breast cancer, mastectomy, or ≥1 prescription for tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors (2004-2019) were selected. We compared the presence of the codes for breast cancer diagnosis, surgeries (mastectomy, lumpectomy), tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitor prescriptions, radiation, chemotherapy, and supporting clinical codes (suspected breast cancer, lump symptoms, biopsy, lumpectomy, cancer care, referral/visit to specialist, palliative care). Age standardized incidence rates of breast cancer diagnosis in CPRD Aurum and GOLD were calculated.

Results

There were 131,936 eligible patients in CPRD Aurum and 69,102 patients in GOLD. A similar proportion of patients in CPRD Aurum and GOLD had codes for breast cancer diagnosis, mastectomy, drug prescriptions, lump, biopsy, lumpectomy, chemotherapy, and cancer and palliative care coded in their electronic record during follow-up. However, suspected breast cancer, radiation, and referral/visits to specialists were coded more frequently in patients in CPRD Aurum compared to GOLD. Age-standardized incidence rates were similar for CPRD Aurum and GOLD.

Conclusion

Overall, there was consistency between data elements related to malignant breast cancer recorded in CPRD Aurum and GOLD, particularly for the most informative clinical details. These findings provide reassurance that breast cancer information recorded in CPRD Aurum is generally comparable to that recorded in the previously validated CPRD GOLD and support the use of CPRD Aurum for breast cancer research.

Post-initiation predictors of discontinuation of the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors: A comparative cohort study from the United Kingdom

AIMS

To assess post-initiation predictors of discontinuation of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors compared to dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in the United Kingdom.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a comparative population-based retrospective cohort study using primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) with linked data to hospital and death records. We included new metformin users who initiated either SGLT2 inhibitors or DPP-4 inhibitors between January 2013 and October 2019. The main outcome was treatment discontinuation, defined as the first 90-day gap after the estimated treatment end date. We used a series of extended Cox models to assess which time-dependent predictors were associated with treatment discontinuation. To test if the hazard ratio of discontinuation for each predictor was statistically different between SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitors, an exposure-predictor interaction term was added to each model.

RESULTS

There were 2550 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 8195 new users of DPP-4 inhibitors. Approximately 69% of SGLT2 inhibitor and 74% of DPP-4 inhibitor users had discontinued treatment by the end of follow-up. Occurrence of fractures after treatment initiation was a significant predictor of discontinuation of SGLT2 inhibitors (hazard ratio [HR] 4.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.12-8.06) but not DPP-4 inhibitors (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.79-1.11). The rate of treatment discontinuation was significantly higher for those with low estimated glomerular filtration rate and minimal contact with the healthcare system. Efficacy endpoints, such as heart failure and glycated haemoglobin level, were not associated with treatment discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reflect some discrepancy between the available evidence and prescribing behaviour for SGLT2 inhibitors.

Imminent fall risk after fracture

RATIONALE

Adults with a recent fracture have a high imminent risk of a subsequent fracture. We hypothesise that, like subsequent fracture risk, fall risk is also highest immediately after a fracture. This study aims to assess if fall risk is time-dependent in subjects with a recent fracture compared to subjects without a fracture.

METHODS

This retrospective matched cohort study used data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD. All subjects ≥50 years with a fracture between 1993 and 2015 were identified and matched one-to-one to fracture-free controls based on year of birth, sex and practice. The cumulative incidence and relative risk (RR) of a first fall was calculated at various time intervals, with mortality as competing risk. Subsequently, analyses were stratified according to age, sex and type of index fracture.

RESULTS

A total of 624,460 subjects were included; 312,230 subjects with an index fracture, matched to 312,230 fracture-free controls (71% females, mean age 70 ± 12, mean follow-up 6.5 ± 5 years). The RR of falls was highest in the first year after fracture compared to fracture-free controls; males had a 3-fold and females a 2-fold higher risk. This imminent fall risk was present in all age and fracture types and declined over time. A concurrent imminent fracture and mortality risk were confirmed.

CONCLUSION/DISCUSSION

This study demonstrates an imminent fall risk in the first years after a fracture in all age and fracture types. This underlines the need for early fall risk assessment and prevention strategies in 50+ adults with a recent fracture.

Identifying potential biases in code sequences in primary care electronic healthcare records: a retrospective cohort study of the determinants of code frequency

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether the frequency of diagnostic codes for long-term conditions (LTCs) in primary care electronic healthcare records (EHRs) is associated with (1) disease coding incentives, (2) General Practice (GP), (3) patient sociodemographic characteristics and (4) calendar year of diagnosis.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

GPs in England from 2015 to 2022 contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum dataset.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients registered to a GP with at least one incident LTC diagnosed between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of diagnostic codes for an LTC in (1) the first and (2) the second year following diagnosis, stratified by inclusion in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) financial incentive programme.

RESULTS

3 113 724 patients were included, with 7 723 365 incident LTCs. Conditions included in QOF had higher rates of annual coding than conditions not included in QOF (1.03 vs 0.32 per year, p<0.0001). There was significant variation in code frequency by GP which was not explained by patient sociodemographics. We found significant associations with patient sociodemographics, with a trend towards higher coding rates in people living in areas of higher deprivation for both QOF and non-QOF conditions. Code frequency was lower for conditions with follow-up time in 2020, associated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The frequency of diagnostic codes for newly diagnosed LTCs is influenced by factors including patient sociodemographics, disease inclusion in QOF, GP practice and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Natural language processing or other methods using temporally ordered code sequences should account for these factors to minimise potential bias.

Presentation and management of insect bites in out-of-hours primary care: a descriptive study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the population presenting to out-of-hours primary care with insect bites, establish their clinical management and the factors associated with antibiotic prescribing.

DESIGN

An observational study using routinely collected data from a large out-of-hours database (BORD, Birmingham Out-of-hours general practice Research Database).

SETTING

A large out-of-hour primary care provider in the Midlands region of England.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients presenting with insect bites between July 2013 and February 2020 were included comprising 5774 encounters.

OUTCOME MEASURES

This cohort was described, and a random subcohort was created for more detailed analysis which established the clinical features of the presenting insect bites. Logistic regression was used to model variables associated with antibiotic prescribing.

RESULTS

Of the 5641 encounters solely due to insect bites, 67.1% (95% CI 65.8% to 68.3%) were prescribed antibiotics. General practitioners were less likely to prescribe antibiotics than advanced nurse practitioners (60.5% vs 71.1%, p<0.001) and there was a decreasing trend in antibiotic prescribing as patient deprivation increased. Pain (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.86), swelling (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.52 to 5.46) and signs of spreading (OR 3.45, 95% CI 1.54 to 7.70) were associated with an increased frequency of antibiotic prescribing. Extrapolation of the findings give an estimated incidence of insect bite consultations in England of 1.5 million annually.

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds of the patients presenting to out-of-hours primary care with insect bites receive antibiotics. While some predictors of prescribing have been found, more research is required to understand the optimal use of antibiotics for this common presentation.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and the risk of venous thromboembolism: A population-based cohort study

AIMS

The cardiovascular benefits of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2Is) result from their complex impact on coronary and arterial vessels. However, their effect on veins and the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains unclear. Meta-analysis of trials has suggested no significant change in risk, but observational studies on the topic are scarce. Our objective was to determine if the use of SGLT2Is, compared to the use of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4Is), is associated with the risk of VTE among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to hospitalization and vital statistics databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prevalent new-user design. SGLT2Is were matched to DPP-4I users on calendar time, diabetes treatment intensity, duration of previous DPP-4I use and time-conditional high-dimensional propensity score. Cox proportional hazard models estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for VTE with SGLT2Is versus DPP-4Is.

RESULTS

SGLT2I use was not associated with an increased risk of VTE (HR 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34 to 1.25). This finding was consistent among prevalent (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.16 to 1.42) and incident (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.72) new users.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that SGLT2Is were not associated with an increased risk of VTE compared to DPP-4Is. Although we observed a numerically decreased risk of VTE with SGLT2Is, estimates were accompanied by wide 95% CIs. Nonetheless, given the morbidity associated with VTE, our results provide some reassurance regarding the safety of SGLT2Is with respect to VTE.

Common mental health disorders in adults with inflammatory skin conditions: nationwide population-based matched cohort studies in the UK

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis and atopic eczema are common inflammatory skin diseases. Existing research has identified increased risks of common mental disorders (anxiety, depression) in people with eczema and psoriasis; however, explanations for the associations remain unclear. We aimed to establish the risk factors for mental illness in those with eczema or psoriasis and identify the population groups most at risk.

METHODS

We used routinely collected data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD. Adults registered with a general practice in CPRD (1997-2019) were eligible for inclusion. Individuals with eczema/psoriasis were matched (age, sex, practice) to up to five adults without eczema/psoriasis. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for hazards of anxiety or depression in people with eczema/psoriasis compared to people without. We adjusted for known confounders (deprivation, asthma [eczema], psoriatic arthritis [psoriasis], Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period) and potential mediators (harmful alcohol use, body mass index [BMI], smoking status, and, in eczema only, sleep quality [insomnia diagnoses, specific sleep problem medications] and high-dose oral glucocorticoids).

RESULTS

We identified two cohorts with and without eczema (1,032,782, matched to 4,990,125 without), and with and without psoriasis (366,884, matched to 1,834,330 without). Sleep quality was imbalanced in the eczema cohorts, twice as many people with eczema had evidence of poor sleep at baseline than those without eczema, including over 20% of those with severe eczema. After adjusting for potential confounders and mediators, eczema and psoriasis were associated with anxiety (adjusted HR [95% CI]: eczema 1.14 [1.13-1.16], psoriasis 1.17 [1.15-1.19]) and depression (adjusted HR [95% CI]: eczema 1.11 [1.1-1.12], psoriasis 1.21 [1.19-1.22]). However, we found evidence that these increased hazards are unlikely to be constant over time and were especially high 1-year after study entry.

CONCLUSIONS

Atopic eczema and psoriasis are associated with increased incidence of anxiety and depression in adults. These associations may be mediated through known modifiable risk factors, especially sleep quality in people with eczema. Our findings highlight potential opportunities for the prevention of anxiety and depression in people with eczema/psoriasis through treatment of modifiable risk factors and enhanced eczema/psoriasis management.

Validation of the recording of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in routinely collected electronic healthcare records in England

BACKGROUND

Routinely-collected healthcare data provide a valuable resource for epidemiological research. Validation studies have shown that for most conditions, simple lists of clinical codes can reliably be used for case finding in primary care, however, studies exploring the robustness of this approach are lacking for diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) which are largely managed in secondary care.

METHOD

Using the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum dataset, which comprises patient-level primary care records linked to national hospital admissions and cause-of-death data, we compared the positive predictive value (PPV) of eight diagnostic algorithms. Algorithms were developed based on the literature and IPF diagnostic guidelines using combinations of clinical codes in primary and secondary care (SNOMED-CT or ICD-10) with/without additional information. The positive predictive value (PPV) was estimated for each algorithm using the death record as the gold standard. Utilization of the reviewed codes across the study period was observed to evaluate any change in coding practices over time.

RESULT

A total of 17,559 individuals had a least one record indicative of IPF in one or more of our three linked datasets between 2008 and 2018. The PPV of case-finding algorithms based on clinical codes alone ranged from 64.4% (95%CI:63.3-65.3) for a "broad" codeset to 74.9% (95%CI:72.8-76.9) for a "narrow" codeset comprising highly-specific codes. Adding confirmatory evidence, such as a CT scan, increased the PPV of our narrow code-based algorithm to 79.2% (95%CI:76.4-81.8) but reduced the sensitivity to under 10%. Adding evidence of hospitalisation to the standalone code-based algorithms also improved PPV, (PPV = 78.4 vs. 64.4%; sensitivity = 53.5% vs. 38.1%). IPF coding practices changed over time, with the increased use of specific IPF codes.

CONCLUSION

High diagnostic validity was achieved by using a restricted set of IPF codes. While adding confirmatory evidence increased diagnostic accuracy, the benefits of this approach need to be weighed against the inevitable loss of sample size and convenience. We would recommend use of an algorithm based on a broader IPF code set coupled with evidence of hospitalisation.

Five-alpha reductase inhibitors and risk of prostate cancer among men with benign prostatic hyperplasia: A historical cohort study using primary care data

Background: Five-alpha reductase inhibitors (5ARIs) are used in the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). 5ARIs prevent the conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone, which is important in prostate development. It has been suggested that 5ARIs can be used a chemopreventative agent for prostate cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of prostate cancer associated with 5ARI use among men with BPH. Methods: Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 1992 to 2011 in UK, prostate cancer risk was retrospectively compared in men with a new diagnosis of BPH, with no history of prostate cancer who were treated with 5ARIs, to men treated with alpha blockers (ABs) and those given no pharmacological treatment. Incidence rate of prostate cancer was calculated by treatment group; the association between BPH treatment group and prostate cancer was estimated by a multivariate Cox model. Results: 77,494 men with newly diagnosed BPH were included. The crude incidence rate of prostate cancer was 892.4 cases per 100,000 person-years amongst those treated with 5ARIs, compared with 1209.0 and 1542.9 in those treated with ABs and untreated individuals, respectively. The HR adjusted for potential confounders was 0.79 (0.72-0.86) for 5ARI vs ABs and 0.72 (0.66-0.79) for 5ARI vs untreated. After excluding the first year after BPH diagnosis, adjusted HRs attenuated to 0.87 (0.79-0.97) for 5ARI vs ABs and 0.97 (0.87-1.08) for 5ARI vs untreated. Conclusion: Among men diagnosed with BPH, we found evidence of lower risks of subsequent prostate cancer in those treated with 5ARIs, but this appeared to be driven by cases diagnosed within a year of BPH, possibly reflecting prevalent prostate cancers that were initially misdiagnosed. After excluding the first year after BPH diagnosis, there was little evidence of a reduced prostate cancer risk in those taking 5ARIs.

Validation of algorithms to identify colorectal cancer patients from administrative claims data of a Japanese hospital

BACKGROUND

Administrative claims data are a valuable source for clinical studies; however, the use of validated algorithms to identify patients is essential to minimize bias. We evaluated the validity of diagnostic coding algorithms for identifying patients with colorectal cancer from a hospital's administrative claims data.

METHODS

This validation study used administrative claims data from a Japanese university hospital between April 2017 and March 2019. We developed diagnostic coding algorithms, basically based on the International Classification of Disease (ICD) 10th codes of C18-20 and Japanese disease codes, to identify patients with colorectal cancer. For random samples of patients identified using our algorithms, case ascertainment was performed using chart review as the gold standard. The positive predictive value (PPV) was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the algorithms.

RESULTS

Of 249 random samples of patients identified as having colorectal cancer by our coding algorithms, 215 were confirmed cases, yielding a PPV of 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 81.5-90.1%). When the diagnostic codes were restricted to site-specific (right colon, left colon, transverse colon, or rectum) cancer codes, 94 of the 100 random samples were true cases of colorectal cancer. Consequently, the PPV increased to 94.0% (95% CI, 87.2-97.4%).

CONCLUSION

Our diagnostic coding algorithms based on ICD-10 codes and Japanese disease codes were highly accurate in detecting patients with colorectal cancer from this hospital's claims data. The exclusive use of site-specific cancer codes further improved the PPV from 86.3 to 94.0%, suggesting their desirability in identifying these patients more precisely.

Recording type 2 diabetes mellitus in a standardised central Saudi database: a retrospective validation study

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted to assess the validity of recording (and the original diagnostic practice) of type 2 diabetes mellitus at a hospital whose records were integrated to a centralised database (the standardised common data model (CDM) of the Saudi National Pharmacoepidemiologic Database (NPED)).

DESIGN

A retrospective single-centre validation study.

SETTINGS

Data of the study participants were extracted from the CDM of the NPED (only records of one tertiary care hospital were integrated at the time of the study) between 1 January 2013 and 1 July 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

A random sample of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (≥18 years old and with a code of type 2 diabetes mellitus) matched with a control group (patients without diabetes) based on age and sex.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The standardised coding of type 2 diabetes in the CDM was validated by comparing the presence of diabetes in the CDM versus the original electronic records at the hospital, the recording in paper-based medical records, and the physician re-assessment of diabetes in the included cases and controls, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were estimated for each pairwise comparison using RStudio V.1.4.1103.

RESULTS

A total of 437 random sample of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus was identified and matched with 437 controls. Only 190 of 437 (43.0%) had paper-based medical records. All estimates were above 90% except for sensitivity and specificity of CDM versus paper-based records (54%; 95% CI 47% to 61% and 68%; 95% CI 62% to 73%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided an assessment to the extent of which only type 2 diabetes mellitus code can be used to identify patients with this disease at a Saudi centralised database. A future multi-centre study would help adding more emphasis to the study findings.

Oral Anticoagulants and the Risk of Dementia in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are essential for stroke prevention in NVAF, and studies have shown a possible protective effect on dementia. However, findings have been inconsistent and hampered by methodological limitations. Thus, we assessed whether the use of OACs is associated with a decreased incidence of dementia in patients with NVAF. In addition, we explored the impact of the cumulative duration of OAC use on the incidence of dementia.

METHODS

Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we formed a cohort of all patients aged 50 years or older with an incident diagnosis of NVAF between 1988 and 2017 and no prior OAC use, with a follow-up until 2019. Patients were considered unexposed until 6 months after their first OAC prescription for latency considerations and exposed thereafter until the end of follow-up. We used time-dependent Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for 54 covariates, with 95% CIs for dementia associated with OAC use, compared with nonuse. We also assessed whether the risk varied with the cumulative duration of OAC use, compared with nonuse, by comparing prespecified exposure categories defined in a time-varying manner and by modeling the HR using a restricted cubic spline.

RESULTS

The cohort included 142,227 patients with NVAF, with 8,023 cases of dementia over 662,667 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate 12.1, 95% CI 11.9-12.4 per 1,000 person-years). OAC use was associated with a decreased risk of dementia (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) compared with nonuse. A restricted cubic spline also indicated a decreased risk of dementia, reaching a low at approximately 1.5 years of cumulative OAC use and stabilizing thereafter. Moreover, OAC use decreased the risk in patients aged 75 years and older (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.89), but not in younger patients (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.10).

DISCUSSION

In patients with incident NVAF, OACs were associated with a decreased risk of dementia, particularly in elderly individuals. This warrants consideration when weighing the risks and benefits of anticoagulation in this population.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that in patients with NVAF, OAC use (vs nonuse) is associated with a decreased risk of dementia.

Payor type is associated with increased rates of reoperation and health care utilization after rotator cuff repair: a national database study

BACKGROUND

Despite strong evidence supporting the efficacy of rotator cuff repair (RCR), previous literature has demonstrated that socioeconomic disparities exist among patients who undergo surgery. There is a paucity of literature examining whether payor type, including Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance types, impacts early medical complications and rates of reoperation after RCR.

METHODS

Patients with Medicare, Medicaid, or commercial payor-type insurance who underwent primary open or arthroscopic RCR between 2010 and 2019 were identified using a large national database. Ninety-day incidence of medical complications, emergency department (ED) visit, and hospital readmission, as well as 1-year incidence of revision repair, revision to arthroplasty, and cost of care were evaluated. Propensity-score matching was used to control for patient demographic factors and comorbidities as covariates.

RESULTS

A total of 113,257 Medicare, 23,074 Medicaid, and 414,447 commercially insured patients were included for analysis. Medicaid insurance was associated with an increased 90-day risk of various medical complications, ED visit (odds ratio [OR]: 2.87; P < .001), and 1-year revision RCR (OR: 1.60; P < .001) compared with Medicare insurance. Medicaid insurance was also associated with an increased risk of various medical complications, ED visit (OR: 2.98; P < .001), and hospital readmission (OR: 1.56; P = .002), as well as 1-year risk of revision RCR (OR: 1.60; P < .001) and conversion to arthroplasty (OR: 1.4358; P < .001) compared with commercially insured patients. Medicaid insurance was associated with a decreased risk of conversion to arthroplasty compared with Medicare patients (OR: 0.6887; P < .001). Medicaid insurance was associated with higher 1-year cost of care compared with patients with both Medicare (P < .001) and commercial insurance (P < .001).

DISCUSSION

Medicaid insurance is associated with increased rates of medical complications, health care utilization, and reoperation after rotator cuff surgery, despite controlling for covariates. Medicaid insurance is also associated with a higher 1-year cost of care. Understanding the complex relationship between sociodemographic factors, such as insurance status, medical comorbidities, and outcomes, is necessary to ensure optimal health care access for all patients and to allow for appropriate risk stratification.

Safety of off-label dose reduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIM

To investigate the effects of off-label non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) dose reduction compared with on-label standard dosing in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in routine care.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, comparing adults with non-valvular AF receiving an off-label reduced NOAC dose to patients receiving an on-label standard dose. Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major/non-major bleeding and mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting on the propensity score were applied to adjust for confounding and informative censoring.

RESULTS

Off-label dose reduction occurred in 2466 patients (8.0%), compared with 18 108 (58.5%) on-label standard-dose users. Median age was 80 years (interquartile range [IQR] 73.0-86.0) versus 72 years (IQR 66-78), respectively. Incidence rates were higher in the off-label dose reduction group compared to the on-label standard dose group, for ischaemic stroke (0.94 vs 0.70 per 100 person years), major bleeding (1.48 vs 0.83), non-major bleeding (6.78 vs 6.16) and mortality (10.12 vs 3.72). Adjusted analyses resulted in a hazard ratio of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-1.60) for ischaemic stroke, 0.88 (95% CI 0.57-1.35) for major bleeding, 0.81 (95% CI 0.67-0.98) for non-major bleeding and 1.34 (95% CI 1.12-1.61) for mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this large population-based study, the hazards for ischaemic stroke and major bleeding were low, and similar in AF patients receiving an off-label reduced NOAC dose compared with on-label standard dose users, while non-major bleeding risk appeared to be lower and mortality risk higher. Caution towards prescribing an off-label reduced NOAC dose is therefore required.

Validation of Algorithms to Identify Bone Metastases Using Administrative Claims Data in a Japanese Hospital

BACKGROUND

Validated coding algorithms are essential to generate high-quality, real-world evidence from claims data studies.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the validity of the algorithms to identify patients with bone metastases using claims data from a Japanese hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study used administrative claims data and electronic medical records at Juntendo University Hospital from April 2017 to March 2019. We developed two candidate claims-based algorithms to detect bone metastases, one based on diagnosis codes alone (Algorithm 1) and the other based on the combination of diagnosis and imaging test codes (Algorithm 2). Of the patients identified by Algorithm 1, 100 patients were randomly sampled. Among these 100 patients, 88 patients met the conditions of Algorithm 2; further, 12 additional patients were randomly sampled from those identified by Algorithm 2, thus obtaining a total of 100 patients for Algorithm 2. They were evaluated for their true diagnosis using the patient chart review as the gold standard. The positive predictive value (PPV) was calculated to assess the accuracy of each algorithm.

RESULTS

For Algorithm 1, 82 patients were analyzed after excluding 18 patients without diagnostic imaging reports. Of these, 69 patients were true positive by chart review, resulting in a PPV of 84.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 74.5-90.6). For Algorithm 2, 92 patients were analyzed after excluding eight patients whose diagnoses were not judged by chart review. Of these, 76 patients were confirmed positive by chart review, yielding a PPV of 82.6% (95% CI 73.4-89.1).

CONCLUSION

Both claims-based algorithms yielded high PPVs of approximately 85%, with no improvement in PPV by adding imaging test conditions. The diagnosis code-based algorithm is sufficient and valid for identifying bone metastases in this Japanese hospital.

Heart Failure is Associated with Early Medical and Surgery-Related Complications Following Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity-Scored Analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is a paucity of literature that examines how heart failure (HF) impacts surgery-related complications following total hip arthroplasty (THA). We hypothesized that patients who had HF will be at increased risk of early medical- and surgery-related complications following THA.

METHODS

Patients who had HF and underwent primary THA between 2010 and 2019 were identified using a large national insurance database. Ninety-day incidence of various medical complications, surgery-related complications, and hospital utilizations were evaluated for patients who did and did not have HF, as well as subgroup analyses were performed on patients who were prescribed mortality-benefitting medications for HF 1 year prior to THA. Propensity score matching resulted in 34,000 HF patients who underwent primary THA and 340,000 matching patients.

RESULTS

The HF cohort was associated with a higher 90-day incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), transfusion, pneumonia, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), myocardial infarction (MI), sepsis, acute post hemorrhagic anemia, acute renal failure (ARF), and urinary tract infection (UTI), as well as 1-year risk of revision THA, periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), aseptic loosening, and dislocation compared to controls. The HF cohort was associated with a higher 90-day incidence of emergency department visits, readmissions, lengths of stay (LOS), and 1-year costs of care. The medication cohort was at decreased risk of PE, DVT, CVA, return to ED, readmission and MI within 90 days of surgery, and 1-year risk of revision THA and aseptic loosening.

DISCUSSION

These findings may help to better risk-stratify patients who have HF and are scheduled to undergo THA, as well as call for additional surveillance of these patients in the immediate and early postoperative period. This study also helps surgeons and internists understand how chronic medications used to treat HF can impact medical- and surgery-related outcomes following THA.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in youths

BACKGROUND

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in youths, possibly via 5-HT_2C, H₁ receptors and serotonin transporter (SERT). SSRIs have similar affinity for SERT but variable affinity for 5-HT_2C and H₁. This study assessed whether SSRIs with strong affinity for 5-HT_2C and H₁ (relative to SERT) were associated with T2DM risk compared with weak-affinity SSRIs.

METHODS

Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we assembled a cohort of patients aged 5-24, newly prescribed a strong-affinity SSRI (citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine) or weak affinity (paroxetine, sertraline, fluvoxamine) between 1990 and 2019. We controlled for confounding using standardized mortality ratio weighting, estimated from calendar time-specific propensity scores. We used weighted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of incident T2DM with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The cohort included 347,368 new users of strong-affinity SSRIs and 131,359 of weak-affinity SSRIs. Strong-affinity SSRIs were not associated with an increased T2DM risk compared with weak-affinity SSRIs (incidence rate 2.8 vs 2.7 per 1000 person-years; HR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.85-1.25). T2DM risk did not vary with duration of use, age or sex. However, the HR was numerically higher in youths with normal or low weight (HR 1.30, 95 % CI 0.85-1.98) and with prior antipsychotic use (HR 1.62, 95 % CI 0.83-3.18).

LIMITATIONS

Median duration of SSRI use, in line with real-world SSRI prescribing, was relatively short.

CONCLUSION

T2DM risk did not differ between strong- and weak-affinity SSRIs, providing reassurance for clinicians when choosing between SSRIs in youths.

The incidence of fractures at various sites in newly treated patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Purpose

In this descriptive study, we examined the incidence of fractures in patients with newly treated type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) compared to matched reference population.

Methods

Participants from the UK Clinical Practice research datalink (CPRD) GOLD (1987-2017), aged ≥30 years, with a T2D diagnosis code and a first prescription for a non-insulin anti-diabetic drug (n = 124,328) were included. Cases with T2D were matched by year of birth, sex and practice to a reference population (n = 124,328), the mean follow-up was 7.7 years. Crude fracture incidence rates (IRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Analyses were stratified by fracture site and sex and additionally adjusted for BMI, smoking status, alcohol use and history of any fracture at index date.

Results

The IR of all fractures and major osteoporotic fractures was lower in T2D compared to the reference population (IRR 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-0.99). The IRs were lower for clavicle (IRR 0.67; 0.56-0.80), radius/ulna (IRR 0.81; 0.75-0.86) and vertebral fractures (0.83; 0.75-0.92) and higher for ankle (IRR 1.16; 95%CI 1.06-1.28), foot (1.11; 1.01-1.22), tibia/fibula (1.17; 1.03-1.32) and humerus fractures (1.11; 1.03-1.20). Differences in IRs at various fracture sites between T2D and the reference population were more pronounced in women than in men. In contrast, BMI adjusted IRs for all fractures (IRR 1.07; 1.04-1.10) and most individual fracture sites were significantly higher in T2D, especially in women.

Conclusion

The crude incidence of all fractures was marginally lower in patients with newly treated T2D compared to the matched reference population but differed according to fracture site, especially in women. BMI adjusted analyses resulted in higher incidence rates in T2D at almost all fracture sites compared to crude incidence rates and this was more pronounced in women than in men. This implies that BMI may have a protective impact on the crude incidence of fractures, especially in women with newly treated T2D.

The Use of Continuous Positive Airway Ventilation for Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea is Associated With Early Medical and Surgery-related Complications Following Total Hip Arthroplasty: A National Database Study

Background

The objective of this study was to determine the effect size of the use of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), as a surrogate in cases of active and more severe diseases, on early medical and surgery-related complications following total hip arthroplasty (THA) within an obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) patient population.

Methods

Patients with OSA who underwent primary THA between 2010 and 2019 were identified using a large national insurance database. Ninety-day incidence of various medical and surgery-related complications and hospital utilization were evaluated for OSA patients who had used CPAP prior to THA and those who did not. Propensity score matching was used to control for patient demographic factors and comorbidities as covariates.

Results

Propensity score matching resulted in 7351 OSA patients who had used CPAP within 6 months of primary THA and 7351 OSA patients who had not. Patients who had used CPAP were at increased 90-day risk of medical complications, as well as 1-year risk of periprosthetic fracture (OR 1.5429; P = .0356), osteolysis (OR 2.4488; P = .0237), aseptic loosening (OR 2.4057; P < .001), and dislocation (OR 1.283; P = .016).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that OSA patients on CPAP are at increased risk of several 90-day medical complications, 1-year surgical complications, and health-care utilization compared to OSA patients not recently using CPAP.

Level of Evidence

III, Retrospective review.

Derivation and External Validation of a Clinical Model to Predict Heart Failure Onset in Patients With Incident Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Heart failure (HF) often develops in patients with diabetes and is recognized for its role in increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in this population. Most existing models predict risk in patients with prevalent rather than incident diabetes and fail to account for sex differences in HF risk factors. We derived sex-specific models in Ontario, Canada to predict HF at diabetes onset and externally validated these models in the U.K.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using international population-based data. Our derivation cohort comprised all Ontario residents aged ≥18 years who were diagnosed with diabetes between 2009 and 2018. Our validation cohort comprised U.K. patients aged ≥35 years who were diagnosed with diabetes between 2007 and 2017. Primary outcome was incident HF. Sex-stratified multivariable Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models were constructed, with death as a competing event.

RESULTS

A total of 348,027 Ontarians (45% women) and 54,483 U.K. residents (45% women) were included. At 1, 5, and 9 years, respectively, in the external validation cohort, the C-statistics were 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.84), 0.79 (0.77-0.80), and 0.78 (0.76-0.79) for the female-specific model; and 0.78 (0.75-0.80), 0.77 (0.76-0.79), and 0.77 (0.75-0.79) for the male-specific model. The models were well-calibrated. Age, rurality, hypertension duration, hemoglobin, HbA1c, and cardiovascular diseases were common predictors in both sexes. Additionally, mood disorder and alcoholism (heavy drinker) were female-specific predictors, while income and liver disease were male-specific predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of developing sex-specific models and represent an important step toward personalized lifestyle and pharmacologic prevention of future HF development.

Does coprescribing nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and oral anticoagulants increase the risk of major bleeding, stroke and systemic embolism?

AIMS

To examine the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, major bleeding, stroke and systemic embolism associated with prescribing nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) to adults receiving oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study in adults receiving OAC therapy using linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD) and hospital (Hospital Episodes Statistics) electronic health records. We used cause-specific Cox regression models with time-dependent NSAID treatment in a propensity score matched population to estimate the increased risk of GI bleeding, stroke, major bleeding and systemic embolism associated with NSAID use.

RESULTS

The matched cohort contained 3177 patients with OAC therapy alone and 3177 with at least 1 concomitant NSAID prescription. Compared with OAC therapy alone, concomitant prescription of NSAIDs with OACs was associated with increased risk of GI bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] 3.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63 to 5.55), stroke (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.48 to 4.96) and major bleeding (HR 2.77, 95% CI 1.84 to 4.19). The association with systemic embolism did not reach statistical significance (HR 3.02, 95% CI 0.82 to 11.07). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust to changes in exclusion criteria and the choice of potential confounding variables.

CONCLUSION

When OACs are coprescribed with NSAIDs, the risk of adverse bleeding events increases and, simultaneously, the protective effect of OACs to prevent strokes reduces. There is a need for interventions that reduce hazardous prescribing of NSAIDs in people receiving OAC therapy.

Glycaemic variability and progression of chronic kidney disease in people with diabetes and comorbid kidney disease: Retrospective cohort study

AIM

To investigate the association between glycaemic variability and the development of End-Stage-Kidney-Disease (ESKD) among individuals with diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

METHODS

A cohort study using UK electronic primary care health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Glycaemic variability was assessed using a variability score and intra-individual coefficient of variation (CV) of HbA1c. We calculated sub-distribution hazard ratios (sHR) for developing ESKD using competing risk regression analysis.

RESULTS

There were 37,222 eligible participants (45.5 % male), with a mean age of 76.4 years (SD ± 9.2), and a mean baseline eGFR 40.7 (±10.7) ml/min/1.73 m². There were 5,086 incidents of ESKD in the follow-up period. The adjusted sHR (95 %CI) for each variability score group, were as follows: 21-40, 1.38 (1.27-1.50); 41-60, 1.54 (1.41-1.68); 61-80, 1.61 (1.45-1.79); and 81-100, 1.42 (1.19-1.68), compared with the group (score 0-20) with least variability. The adjusted sHR for CV were as follows: 6.7-9.9, 1.29 (1.15-1.45); 10.0-13.9, 1.55 (1.39-1.74); 14.0-20.1, 1.79 (1.60-2.01) and ≥20.2, 2.10 (1.88-2.34) compared to reference group 0-6.6.

CONCLUSIONS

Glycaemic variability was strongly associated with the development of ESKD in people with diabetes and CKD.

Pre- and post-stroke oral antithrombotics and mortality in patients with ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Reducing stroke occurrence requires the effective management of cardiovascular and other stroke risk factors.

PURPOSE

To describe pre- and post-stroke medication use, focusing on antithrombotic therapy and mortality risk, in individuals hospitalised for ischaemic stroke (IS) in the United Kingdom.

METHOD

Using primary care electronic health records from the United Kingdom, we identified patients hospitalised for IS (July 2016-September 2019) and classed them into three groups: atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosed pre-stroke, AF diagnosed post-stroke, and non-AF stroke (no AF diagnosed pre-/post-stroke). We determined use of cardiovascular medications in the 90 days pre- and post-stroke and calculated mortality rates.

RESULTS

There were 3201 hospitalised IS cases: 76.2% non-AF stroke, 15.7% AF pre-stroke, and 8.1% AF post-stroke. Oral anticoagulant (OAC) use increased between the pre- and post-stroke periods as follows: 54.3%-78.7% (AF pre-stroke group), 2.3%-84.8% (AF post-stroke group), and 3.4%-7.3% (non-AF stroke group). Corresponding increases in antiplatelet use were 30.8%-35.4% (AF pre-stroke group) 38.5%-47.5% (AF post-stroke group), and 37.5%-87.3% (non-AF stroke group). Among all IS cases, antihypertensive use increased from 66.8% pre-stroke to 78.8% post-stroke; statin use increased from 49.6%-85.2%. Mortality rates per 100 person-years (95% CI) were 17.30 (14.70-20.35) in the AF pre-stroke group and 9.65 (8.81-10.56) among all other stroke cases.

CONCLUSION

Our findings identify areas for improvement in clinical practice, including optimising the level of OAC prescribing to patients with known AF, which could potentially help reduce the future burden of stroke.

Trends in Prescribing Preferences for Antidiabetic Medications Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in the U.K. With and Without Chronic Kidney Disease, 2006-2020

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate trends in antidiabetic medication initiation patterns among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with and without chronic kidney disease (CKD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2006-2020) was conducted to evaluate the overall, first-, and second line (after metformin) medication initiation patterns among patients with CKD (n = 38,622) and those without CKD (n = 230,963) who had T2DM.

RESULTS

Relative to other glucose-lowering therapies, metformin initiations declined overall but remained the first-line treatment of choice for both patients with and those without CKD. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2i) use increased modestly among patients with CKD, but this increase was more pronounced among patients without CKD; by 2020, patients without CKD, compared with patients with CKD, were three (28.5% vs. 9.4%) and six (46.3% vs. 7.9%) times more likely to initiate SGLT2i overall and as second-line therapy, respectively. Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) use was minimal regardless of CKD status (<5%), whereas both dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i) and sulfonylurea use remained high among patients with CKD. For instance, by 2020, and among patients with CKD, DPP4i and sulfonylureas constituted 28.3% and 20.6% of all initiations, and 57.4% and 30.3% of second-line initiations, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT2i use increased among patients with T2DM, but this increase was largely driven by patients without CKD. Work is needed to identify barriers associated with the uptake of therapies with proven cardiorenal benefits (e.g., SGLT2i, GLP-1RA) among patients with CKD.

Variations in comorbidity burden in people with type 2 diabetes over disease duration: A population-based analysis of real world evidence

Background

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasing, but increasing longevity among persons with diagnosed diabetes may be is associated with more extensive and diverse types of morbidity. The extent and breadth of morbidity and how this varies across sub-groups is unclear and could have important clinical and public health implications. We aimed to estimate comorbidity profiles in people with T2DM and variations across sub-groups and over time.

Methods

We identified approximately 224,000 people with T2DM in the Discover-NOW dataset, a real-world primary care database from 2000 to 2020 covering 2.5 million people across North-West London, England, linked to hospital records. We generated a mixed prevalence and incidence study population through repeated annual cross sections, and included a broad set of 35 comorbidities covering traditional T2DM conditions, emerging T2DM conditions and other common conditions.We estimated annual age-standardised prevalence of comorbidities, over the course of the disease in people with T2DM and several sub-groups.

Findings

Multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions) is common in people with T2DM and increasing, but the comorbidity profiles of people with T2DM vary substantially. Nearly 30% of T2DM patients had three or more comorbidities at diagnosis, increasing to 60% of patients ten years later. Two of the five commonest comorbidities at diagnosis were traditional T2DM conditions (hypertension (37%) and ischaemic heart disease (10%)) the other three were not (depression (15%), back pain (25%) and osteoarthritis (11%)). The prevalence of each increased during the course of the disease, with more than one in three patients having back pain and one in four having depression ten years post diagnosis.People with five or more comorbidities at diagnosis had higher prevalence of each of the 35 comorbidities. Hypertension (73%) was the commonest comorbidity at diagnosis in this group; followed by back pain (69%), depression (67%), asthma (45%) and osteoarthritis (36%). People with obesity at diagnosis had substantially different comorbidity profiles to those without, and the five commonest comorbidities were 50% more common in this group.

Interpretation

Preventative and clinical interventions alongside care pathways for people with T2DM should transition to reflect the diverse set of causes driving persistent morbidity. This would benefit both patients and healthcare systems alike.

Funding

The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

Safety of Apremilast in Patients with Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis: Findings from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

INTRODUCTION

This real-world safety analysis was requested by the European Medicines Agency following approval of apremilast, an oral treatment for psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare incidence rates of adverse events of special interest identified a priori, in patients receiving apremilast with those receiving other systemic treatments for psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis.

METHODS

This 5-year cohort study was conducted in Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD between January 2015 and June 2020. Incidence rates of adverse events of special interest were estimated for four matched cohorts: apremilast-exposed and three matched non-apremilast cohorts (oral only, injectable only, and oral and injectable psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis treatments).

RESULTS

The apremilast-exposed cohort included 341 patients and the three non-apremilast cohorts included 4981 patients. There were no incident cases of vasculitis, hematologic malignancy, non-melanoma skin malignancy, treated depression, treated anxiety, or suicidal behaviors in the apremilast-exposed cohort during the follow-up. Similar incidence rates of all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiac events, tachyarrhythmias, and solid malignancies were recorded in the apremilast and non-apremilast cohorts. The incidence rate (95% confidence interval) per 1000 person-years of opportunistic and serious infections in the apremilast-exposed cohort (64 [40-102])) was similar to incidence rates in the oral (50 [42-60]) and oral and injectable non-apremilast cohorts (57 [47-69]), while the incidence rates were lower in the injectable treatment-only cohort (20 [10-41]). Limitations include small numbers of apremilast-exposed patients and potential exposure misclassification partly owing to missing information on biologic and other specialty treatment use.

CONCLUSIONS

No new apremilast safety signals were identified in this study. These results provide evidence that the long-term safety of apremilast in psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis in a real-world setting is comparable to that reported in clinical trials.