Akaike's information criterion in generalized estimating equations

Robust measurement of clinical improvement in patients with cutaneous lupus erythematosus

Objective

The severity and disease course of cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) are highly variable. Consequently, outcome measures for CLE clinical improvement are heterogeneous, complicating treatment decisions and therapeutic development. This study characterises CLE outcome measures and identifies the influence of clinical improvement thresholds on strengths of associations with patient demographic and clinical factors.

Methods

In this pilot cohort study, multivariable models identified factors associated with CLE activity and skin damage improvement, defined as relative decreases in Cutaneous Lupus Activity and Severity Index (CLASI) activity (CLASI-A) and damage (CLASI-D) scores, over ranges of response thresholds.

Results

66 patients with 119 visit-pairs were included in the CLASI-A analysis. 74 patients with 177 visit-pairs were included in the CLASI-D analysis. Factors associated with CLE activity and damage improvement depended on the response threshold. Some associations were stronger at more stringent thresholds, including subacute CLE predominance with increased likelihood of CLASI-A improvement (R²=0.73; 50% reduction: OR 1.724 (95% CI 0.537 to 5.536); 75%: 5.67 (95% CI 1.56 to 20.5)) and African-American race with decreased likelihood of CLASI-D improvement (R²=0.80; 20%: 0.40 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.93); 40%: 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.82)). Other associations were stable across multiple thresholds, including older age of CLE development with increased likelihood of CLASI-A improvement (R²=0.25; 50%: 1.05 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.09]; 75%: 1.05 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.10)) and higher initial disease activity with decreased likelihood of CLASI-D improvement (R²=0.55; 20%: 0.91 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.98); 40%: 0.88 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.97)).

Conclusions

Examining a range of CLASI threshold outcomes can comprehensively characterise changes in disease course in patients with CLE. Insufficiently stringent thresholds may fail to distinguish meaningful clinical change from natural fluctuation in disease activity.

Psychological Symptoms and Rates of Performance Validity Improve Following Trauma-Focused Treatment in Veterans with PTSD and History of Mild-to-Moderate TBI

OBJECTIVE

Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI) history have high rates of performance validity test (PVT) failure. The study aimed to determine whether those with scores in the invalid versus valid range on PVTs show similar benefit from psychotherapy and if psychotherapy improves PVT performance.

METHOD

Veterans (N = 100) with PTSD, mild-to-moderate TBI history, and cognitive complaints underwent neuropsychological testing at baseline, post-treatment, and 3-month post-treatment. Veterans were randomly assigned to cognitive processing therapy (CPT) or a novel hybrid intervention integrating CPT with TBI psychoeducation and cognitive rehabilitation strategies from Cognitive Symptom Management and Rehabilitation Therapy (CogSMART). Performance below standard cutoffs on any PVT trial across three different PVT measures was considered invalid (PVT-Fail), whereas performance above cutoffs on all measures was considered valid (PVT-Pass).

RESULTS

Although both PVT groups exhibited clinically significant improvement in PTSD symptoms, the PVT-Pass group demonstrated greater symptom reduction than the PVT-Fail group. Measures of post-concussive and depressive symptoms improved to a similar degree across groups. Treatment condition did not moderate these results. Rate of valid test performance increased from baseline to follow-up across conditions, with a stronger effect in the SMART-CPT compared to CPT condition.

CONCLUSION

Both PVT groups experienced improved psychological symptoms following treatment. Veterans who failed PVTs at baseline demonstrated better test engagement following treatment, resulting in higher rates of valid PVTs at follow-up. Veterans with invalid PVTs should be enrolled in trauma-focused treatment and may benefit from neuropsychological assessment after, rather than before, treatment.

Incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in people with HIV in Ontario, 1996-2015: a retrospective population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Because of high smoking rates and HIV-related factors, people with HIV may be at high risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, population-based estimates of the incidence of COPD among people with HIV are lacking, particularly for women. We compared the incidence of COPD among Ontario adults aged 35 years or more with and without HIV between Jan. 1, 1996, and Dec. 31, 2015.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study using Ontario's health administrative databases. We compared the incidence of COPD between people with and without HIV using standardized incidence ratios and generalized estimating equations with a log link function.

RESULTS

We identified 1849 people with HIV and 1 168 727 HIV-negative people who were newly diagnosed with COPD between 1996 and 2015. People with HIV were younger than HIV-negative people (mean age 49.7 [standard deviation 10.4] yr v. 62.2 [standard deviation 14.8] yr; standardized difference 0.98). Rates of COPD were higher among people with HIV than among HIV-negative people (10.4 v. 9.0 cases per 1000 person-years; standardized incidence ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.21; adjusted rate ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.41). In sex-stratified analyses, rates of COPD were higher among men with HIV (adjusted rate ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.40) and women with HIV (adjusted rate ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.72) than among men and women without HIV. In a sensitivity analysis, smoking explained observed differences in COPD incidence.

INTERPRETATION

People with HIV had higher rates of incident COPD than HIV-negative people. This may reflect the disproportionately higher prevalence of smoking among the former.

Ivermectin as an adjuvant to anti-epileptic treatment in persons with onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy: A randomized proof-of-concept clinical trial

INTRODUCTION

Recent findings from onchocerciasis-endemic foci uphold that increasing ivermectin coverage reduces the epilepsy incidence, and anecdotal evidence suggests seizure frequency reduction in persons with onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy, when treated with ivermectin. We conducted a randomized clinical trial to assess whether ivermectin treatment decreases seizure frequency.

METHODS

A proof-of-concept randomized clinical trial was conducted in the Logo health zone in the Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo, to compare seizure frequencies in onchocerciasis-infected persons with epilepsy (PWE) randomized to one of two treatment arms: the anti-epileptic drug phenobarbital supplemented with ivermectin, versus phenobarbital alone. The primary endpoint was defined as the probability of being seizure-free at month 4. A secondary endpoint was defined as >50% reduction in seizure frequency at month 4, compared to baseline. Both endpoints were analyzed using multiple logistic regression. In longitudinal analysis, the probability of seizure freedom during the follow-up period was assessed for both treatment arms by fitting a logistic regression model using generalized estimating equations (GEE).

RESULTS

Ninety PWE enrolled between October and November 2017 were eligible for analysis. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed a borderline association between ivermectin treatment and being seizure-free at month 4 (OR: 1.652, 95% CI 0.975-2.799; p = 0.062). There was no significant difference in the probability of experiencing >50% reduction of the seizure frequency at month 4 between the two treatment arms. Also, treatment with ivermectin did not significantly increase the odds of being seizure-free during the individual follow-up visits.

CONCLUSION

Whether ivermectin has an added value in reducing the frequency of seizures in PWE treated with AED remains to be determined. A larger study in persons with OAE on a stable AED regimen and in persons with recent epilepsy onset should be considered to further investigate the potential beneficial effect of ivermectin treatment in persons with OAE.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov; NCT03052998.

A comparative effectiveness study of lipegfilgrastim in multiple myeloma patients after high dose melphalan and autologous stem cell transplant

G-CSF administration after high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been shown to expedite neutrophil recovery. Several studies comparing filgrastim and pegfilgrastim in the post-ASCT setting concluded that the two are at least equally effective. Lipegfilgrastim (LIP) is a new long-acting, once-per-cycle G-CSF. This multicentric, prospective study aimed to describe the use of LIP in multiple myeloma patients receiving high-dose melphalan and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and compare LIP with historic controls of patients who received short-acting agent (filgrastim [FIL]). Overall, 125 patients with a median age of 60 years received G-CSF after ASCT (80 patients LIP on day 1 post-ASCT and 45 patients FIL on day 5 post-ASCT). The median duration of grade 4 neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count [ANC] < 0.5 × 10 [9]/L) was 5 days in both LIP and FIL groups, whereas the median number of days to reach ANC ≥ 0.5 × 10 [9]/L was 10% lower in the LIP than in the FIL group (10 vs 11 days), respectively. Male sex was significantly associated with a faster ANC ≥ 0.5 × 10 [9] L response (p = 0.015). The incidence of FN was significantly lower in the LIP than in the FIL group (29% vs 49%, respectively, p = 0.024). The days to discharge after ASCT infusion were greater in patients with FN (p < 0.001). The study indicates that LIP had a shorter time to ANC recovery and is more effective than FIL for the prevention of FN in the ASCT setting.

Robustness of zero-augmented models over generalized linear models in analysing fertility data in Nigeria

Objective

Fertility is a count data usually rightly skewed and exhibiting large number of zeros than the distributional assumption of the generalized linear models (GLMs). This study examined the robustness of zero-augmented models over GLMs to fit fertility data across regions in Nigeria. The 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data were used. The fertility models fitted included: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, hurdle Poisson and hurdle negative binomial. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) were used to identify the model with best fit (α = 0.05).

Results

The percentage of zero count in the fertility responses were 21.3, 23.9, 31.1, 30.7, 37.6 and 42.4 in North West, North East, North Central, South West, South South and South East regions respectively. In all the six regions in Nigeria, the zero-augmented models were better than the generalized linear models except for North Central. Extensively, the zero-augmented negative binomial based models were of better fit than their Poisson based counterparts; or in rare cases maybe indistinguishable. However, specific family of zero-augmented model is recommended for each region in Nigeria.

Association of Enacted Stigma with Depressive Symptoms Among Gay and Bisexual Men Who Have Sex with Men: Baltimore, 2011 and 2014

Purpose: We assessed differences between gay and bisexual men in enacted stigma, and how the association between stigma and depressive symptoms may vary according to sexual orientation identity. Methods: Participants (671 gay and 331 bisexual men who have sex with men) in Baltimore's 2011 and 2014 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance completed an anonymous survey, including 3 enacted stigma dimensions and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Adjusted prevalence ratios were calculated through Generalized Estimating Equation models adjusting for theorized confounders (demographic, socioeconomic, and relational factors). Results: Bisexual men reported stigma experiences less frequently than did gay men (verbal harassment 22.7% vs. 32.3%, and discrimination 15.7% vs. 23.0%). Relevant depressive symptoms were reported by 43.1% of bisexual men and 34.2% of gay men (p < 0.001). Statistically significant differences in depressive symptoms between bisexual and gay men disappeared after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. The three enacted stigma dimensions were significantly associated with depressive symptoms, but their interaction with sexual orientation identity was not. Conclusion: This study confirms the association between enacted stigma and depressive symptoms among gay and bisexual men. However, sexual orientation identity did not modify this association as hypothesized. The bisexual men presented other psychosocial stressors that may explain their higher prevalence of depressive symptoms. The high levels of verbal harassment, discrimination, and physical assault reported by gay and bisexual men and their negative effect on mental health indicate the need to develop new effective public health strategies to avoid these consequences of homophobic and biphobic culture.

Effects of changes in living environment on physical health: a prospective German cohort study of non-movers

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies on associations between changes in living environment and health are few and focus on movers. Next to causal effects, differences in health can, however, result due to residential mobility. The present study explored changes in living environment related to (changes in) physical health among non-movers. Causality was reinforced by a novel study design.

METHODS

We obtained longitudinal data on both living environment and physical health covering 4601 non-movers aged 18+ with 16 076 health observations from the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1999 and 2014. Changing and stable perceived living environment from three domains (infrastructure, environmental pollution, housing conditions) were included at household level. We performed linear regressions with robust standard errors and generalized estimating equations to predict the physical component summary (PCS) at baseline and changes in PCS over time.

RESULTS

Stable moderate and worst as well as worsened environmental pollution and infrastructure were associated with worse PCS at baseline, as were stable poor and worsened housing conditions. Stable worst infrastructure was associated with negative changes in PCS for both sexes. Men's changes in PCS were more affected by worsened environmental pollution than women's.

CONCLUSION

A suboptimal living environment has short- and long-term negative effects on physical health. Because even short-term changes in the living environment have an immediate influence on an individual's health status and health trajectories, public attention to living environment is essential to fight existing health inequalities.

Risk of Hospitalization in Long-Term Care Residents Living with Heart Failure: a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults living with heart failure (HF) in long-term care (LTC) experience frequent hospitalization. Using routinely available clinical information, we examined resident-level factors that precipitate hospitalization within 90 days of admission to LTC.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of older adults diagnosed with HF, who were admitted to LTC in Ontario, Canada, between 2011 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations were developed to determine predictors of hospitalization in residents with HF.

RESULTS

Entry to LTC from a hospital was the strongest predictor of future hospitalization (OR: 8.1, 95% CI: 7.1-9.3), followed by a score of three or greater on the Changes in Health, End-stage Signs and Symptoms scale, a measure of moderate to severe medical instability (O.R 4.2, 95% CI: 3.1-5.9). Other variables that increased the likelihood of hospitalization included being flagged as a high risk for falls, two or more physician visits, and increased monitoring for acute medical illness within 14 days of admission.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight that health instability and transitions from acute to LTC will increase the likelihood of transitioning back into the hospital setting. The identified predisposing factors suggest the need for targeted prevention strategies for those in high-risk groups.

Cigarette Affordability and Cigarette Consumption among Adult and Elderly Chinese Smokers: Evidence from A Longitudinal Study

China is in the midst of an epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which has increasingly accounted for a growing share of disease burden, due in part to China's ongoing rapid socioeconomic changes and population aging. Smoking, the second leading health risk factors associated with NCDs in China, disproportionately affects the old population more than their younger counterparts. Using survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study evaluated the impact of changes in cigarette affordability on smoking behavior among middle-aged and elderly (age 45 and older) smokers. Self-reported cigarette price and disposable income were used to calculate cigarette affordability. Cigarette consumption was measured using the number of cigarettes smoked per day reported by the survey respondents. The correlation between cigarette affordability and cigarette consumption was estimated using generalized estimating equations adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic status, geolocations, and cigarette price tiers, as well as year fixed effects. The estimated overall conditional cigarette affordability elasticity of demand was -0.165, implying a 10% decrease in cigarette affordability would result in a reduction in cigarette consumption by 1.65%. The cigarette affordability responsiveness differs by demographics, socioeconomic status, geolocations, and cigarette price tiers. This study provides evidence that tax/price policies that reduce cigarette affordability could lead to a decrease in cigarette consumption among middle-aged and elderly smokers in China. Smoke-free laws, as well as minimum price regulations, may be needed to compliment excise tax policy to target specific smoking subgroups whose cigarette consumption is less sensitive to changes in cigarette affordability.

Wealth and Obesity Among US Adults Entering Midlife

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the relationship between wealth and obesity among adults entering midlife and whether this relationship varies by sex, race, and measure of wealth.

METHODS

The data were obtained from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY-79). Population-averaged models were used to examine the associations between multiple measures of wealth and obesity among 6,979 respondents while controlling for education, occupation, income, and relevant sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

The analysis found a robust association between wealth and midlife obesity as well as heterogeneity in the wealth-obesity association across sex, race, and measure of wealth. With the exception of black men, net worth generally had a significant and inverse relationship with obesity. The net worth-obesity association was largest among women and was driven primarily by home value, in addition to savings and debt for black women. Although home value was significant for white men, the components of wealth were generally unrelated to obesity among men.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between wealth and obesity was generally robust but also complex, depending on sex, race, and measure of wealth. Research that does not consider multiple components of wealth may overlook the importance of economic resources in shaping obesity rates in the US population.

Healthcare utilization costs of emerging adults with mood and anxiety disorders in an early intervention treatment program compared to a matched cohort

AIM

The First Episode Mood and Anxiety Disorder Program (FEMAP) provides treatment to emerging adults with mood and anxiety disorders in an accessible, youth-friendly environment. We sought to investigate FEMAP's impact on the costs of care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of one-year health service costs using linked administrative datasets to compare emerging adults treated at FEMAP (FEMAP users) to propensity-score matched controls (non-users). Costs from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, included drug benefit claims, inpatient, physician and ambulatory care services. We used bootstrapping to perform unadjusted comparisons between FEMAP users and non-users, by cost category and overall. We performed risk-adjusted comparison of overall costs using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

FEMAP users (n = 366) incurred significantly lower costs compared to non-users (n = 660), for inpatient services (-$784, 95% confidence interval [CI] -$1765, -$28), ambulatory care services (-$90, 95% CI -$175, -$14) and drug benefit claims (-$47, 95% CI -$115,-$4) and significantly higher physician services costs ($435, 95% CI $276, $581) over 1 year. The unadjusted difference in overall costs was not significant (-$853, 95% CI -$2048, $142). Following adjustment for age, sex and age at first mental health diagnosis, the difference of -$914 (95% CI (-$2747, $919)) was also not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

FEMAP was associated with significantly lower costs of inpatient and ambulatory care services, and higher costs of physician services, however we are unable to conclude that FEMAP is cost-saving overall.

Factors associated with discontinuation of antidepressant treatment after a single prescription among patients aged 55 or over: evidence from English primary care

PURPOSE

Antidepressants are frequently prescribed to older people with depression but little is known on predictors of discontinuation in this population. We, therefore, investigated factors associated with early discontinuation of antidepressants in older adults with new diagnoses or symptoms of depression in English primary care.

METHODS

Data from a nationally representative cohort of patients aged 55 and over were used to evaluate the association between discontinuation of antidepressant medication after a single prescription and potential explanatory variables, including socio-demographic factors, polypharmacy and age-related problems such as dementia.

RESULTS

Overall, during the study period we observed 34,715 new courses of antidepressant treatment initiated after recorded symptoms or diagnoses of depression. Antidepressant discontinuation after a single prescription was more common in people with depressive symptoms (32%) than in those with diagnosed depression (21.6%). In those diagnosed with depression and in women with depressive symptoms we found that, after adjusting for confounders, the odds of early discontinuation significantly increased after age 65 with a peak at around age 80 and then either levelled or reduced thereafter. Early discontinuation was also significantly less common in people with dementia and in those with diagnosed depression living in more rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Early discontinuation of antidepressants increases in the post-retirement years and is higher in those with no formal diagnosis of depression, those without dementia and those with diagnosed depression living in urban areas. Alternative treatment strategies, such as non-drug therapies, or more active patient follow-up should be further considered in these circumstances.

Social determinants of health in relation to firearm-related homicides in the United States: A nationwide multilevel cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Gun violence has shortened the average life expectancy of Americans, and better knowledge about the root causes of gun violence is crucial to its prevention. While some empirical evidence exists regarding the impacts of social and economic factors on violence and firearm homicide rates, to the author's knowledge, there has yet to be a comprehensive and comparative lagged, multilevel investigation of major social determinants of health in relation to firearm homicides and mass shootings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This study used negative binomial regression models and geolocated gun homicide incident data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, to explore and compare the independent associations of key state-, county-, and neighborhood-level social determinants of health-social mobility, social capital, income inequality, racial and economic segregation, and social spending-with neighborhood firearm-related homicides and mass shootings in the United States, accounting for relevant state firearm laws and a variety of state, county, and neighborhood (census tract [CT]) characteristics. Latitude and longitude coordinates on firearm-related deaths were previously collected by the Gun Violence Archive, and then linked by the British newspaper The Guardian to CTs according to 2010 Census geographies. The study population consisted of all 74,134 CTs as defined for the 2010 Census in the 48 states of the contiguous US. The final sample spanned 70,579 CTs, containing an estimated 314,247,908 individuals, or 98% of the total US population in 2015. The analyses were based on 13,060 firearm-related deaths in 2015, with 11,244 non-mass shootings taking place in 8,673 CTs and 141 mass shootings occurring in 138 CTs. For area-level social determinants, lag periods of 3 to 17 years were examined based on existing theory, empirical evidence, and data availability. County-level institutional social capital (levels of trust in institutions), social mobility, income inequality, and public welfare spending exhibited robust relationships with CT-level gun homicide rates and the total numbers of combined non-mass and mass shooting homicide incidents and non-mass shooting homicide incidents alone. A 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in institutional social capital was linked to a 19% reduction in the homicide rate (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.91, p < 0.001) and a 17% decrease in the number of firearm homicide incidents (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95, p = 0.01). Upward social mobility was related to a 25% reduction in the gun homicide rate (IRR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p < 0.001) and a 24% decrease in the number of homicide incidents (IRR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.87, p < 0.001). Meanwhile, 1-SD increases in the neighborhood percentages of residents in poverty and males living alone were associated with 26%-27% and 12% higher homicide rates, respectively. Study limitations include possible residual confounding by factors at the individual/household level, and lack of disaggregation of gun homicide data by gender and race/ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds that the rich-poor gap, level of citizens' trust in institutions, economic opportunity, and public welfare spending are all related to firearm homicide rates in the US. Further establishing the causal nature of these associations and modifying these social determinants may help to address the growing gun violence epidemic and reverse recent life expectancy declines among Americans.

The contribution of frailty, cognition, activity of daily life and comorbidities on outcome in acutely admitted patients over 80 years in European ICUs: the VIP2 study

Purpose

Premorbid conditions affect prognosis of acutely-ill aged patients. Several lines of evidence suggest geriatric syndromes need to be assessed but little is known on their relative effect on the 30-day survival after ICU admission. The primary aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of frailty, cognition decline and activity of daily life in addition to the presence of comorbidity and polypharmacy and to assess their influence on 30-day survival.

Methods

Prospective cohort study with 242 ICUs from 22 countries. Patients 80 years or above acutely admitted over a six months period to an ICU between May 2018 and May 2019 were included. In addition to common patients’ characteristics and disease severity, we collected information on specific geriatric syndromes as potential predictive factors for 30-day survival, frailty (Clinical Frailty scale) with a CFS > 4 defining frail patients, cognitive impairment (informant questionnaire on cognitive decline in the elderly (IQCODE) with IQCODE ≥ 3.5 defining cognitive decline, and disability (measured the activity of daily life with the Katz index) with ADL ≤ 4 defining disability. A Principal Component Analysis to identify co-linearity between geriatric syndromes was performed and from this a multivariable model was built with all geriatric information or only one: CFS, IQCODE or ADL. Akaike’s information criterion across imputations was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of our models.

Results

We included 3920 patients with a median age of 84 years (IQR: 81–87), 53.3% males). 80% received at least one organ support. The median ICU length of stay was 3.88 days (IQR: 1.83–8). The ICU and 30-day survival were 72.5% and 61.2% respectively. The geriatric conditions were median (IQR): CFS: 4 (3–6); IQCODE: 3.19 (3–3.69); ADL: 6 (4–6); Comorbidity and Polypharmacy score (CPS): 10 (7–14). CFS, ADL and IQCODE were closely correlated. The multivariable analysis identified predictors of 1-month mortality (HR; 95% CI): Age (per 1 year increase): 1.02 (1.–1.03, p = 0.01), ICU admission diagnosis, sequential organ failure assessment score (SOFA) (per point): 1.15 (1.14–1.17, p < 0.0001) and CFS (per point): 1.1 (1.05–1.15, p < 0.001). CFS remained an independent factor after inclusion of life-sustaining treatment limitation in the model.

Conclusion

We confirm that frailty assessment using the CFS is able to predict short-term mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. Other geriatric syndromes do not add improvement to the prediction model. Since CFS is easy to measure, it should be routinely collected for all elderly ICU patients in particular in connection to advance care plans, and should be used in decision making.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00134-019-05853-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estrone exposure interacts with temperature to alter predator evasion performance and systemic mRNA abundances

Environmental estrogens from anthropogenic activities are ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems. Ambient temperature in these systems also fluctuates in daily, seasonal, and long-term rhythms. While both factors have been studied extensively, their interaction on aquatic life is critical to understand. The objective of this study was, therefore, to examine how behavior and gene expression are impacted by estrogenic exposure across a range of environmental temperatures. Larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to estrone (E₁) at two concentrations (nominal 625 and 1250 ng/L) or to an ethanol solvent control, at one of four temperatures (15, 18, 21 and 24 °C) from fertilization to 21 days post-hatch. Exposed larvae were assessed for alterations in predator evasion performance and mRNA abundances of two genes for calcium channel receptors found in muscles - dihydropyridine receptor (dhpr) and ryanodine receptor 1, and the gonadal genes anti-Müllerian hormone, cytochrome P450 gonadal aromatase (cyp19a), doublesex and mab-3 related transcription factor 1 (dmrt1) and estrogen receptor 1 (esr1). Larval escape angle, escape latency, as well as systemic esr1 and cyp19a mRNA abundances were altered by an interaction between E₁ concentration and temperature. E₁-exposed larval exhibited reduced escape performance across all tested temperatures, whereas decreased systemic dhpr mRNA abundance was observed only at 18 °C. E₁-exposure reduced systemic mRNA abundances of amh, cyp19a, dhpr, and ryr1, while temperature significantly reduced systemic cyp19a and dhpr mRNA abundances. E₁-exposure and temperature significant enhanced systemic mRNA abundances of esr1 and cyp19a, respectively. These complex results illustrate the importance of considering how abiotic factors may moderate the effects of contaminant exposure during the sensitive larval developmental stage, as temperature modulates effects of estrogenic exposure on animal performance and mRNA abundances.

Muscle Fatigue in Response to Electrical Stimulation Pattern and Frequency in Spinal Cord Injury

BACKGROUND

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) is widely used to induce functional movements for paralyzed muscles. However, rapid muscle fatigue during FES-induced muscle contractions limits FES clinical efficacy.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate muscle fatigue response across stimulation patterns and frequencies during FES in able-bodied individuals and in those with spinal cord injury (SCI).

DESIGN

Four stimulation protocols combining 20 and 40 Hz average frequency with either constant frequency trains (CFTs) or with doublet frequency trains (DFTs) were applied to the quadriceps of seven adults with SCI and eight able-bodied participants.

SETTING

A FES-row training laboratory.

PARTICIPANTS

Seven individuals with SCI (one female; age range, 25 ± 6 years) and eight age-matched able-bodied participants (one female).

INTERVENTION

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Fatigue was defined as the number of contractions until force decreased by 20% from the target level of 25% maximal contraction force. The number of contractions and the stimulation current used during the four stimulation protocols were compared.

RESULTS

There was a significant effect of frequency, as well as interaction between group and stimulation pattern (P < .05). In both groups, 20-Hz trains increased the number of contractions to fatigue compared to 40-Hz trains. However, the responses to the pattern of stimulation differed. In the able-bodied participants, CFT increased the number of contractions to fatigue compared to DFT, whereas in those with SCI, DFT increased the number of contractions to fatigue. In fact, DFT resulted in similar number of contractions to fatigue in both populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that DFT at 20 Hz may be a better stimulation protocol to delay fatigue onset in the SCI population than the other three protocols. In addition, this work implies that results from able-bodied persons may not be directly applicable to those with SCI.

Impact of free-living pattern of sedentary behaviour on intra-day glucose regulation in type 2 diabetes

Purpose

To investigate how the pattern of sedentary behaviour affects intra-day glucose regulation in type 2 diabetes.

Methods

This intensive longitudinal study was conducted in 37 participants with type 2 diabetes (age, 62.8 ± 10.5 years). Glucose and sedentary behaviour/physical activity were assessed with a continuous glucose monitoring (Abbott FreeStyle Libre) and an activity monitor (activPAL3) for 14 days. Multiple regression models with generalised estimating equations (GEEs) approach were used to assess the associations of sedentary time and breaks in sedentary time with pre-breakfast glucose, pre-lunch glucose, pre-dinner glucose, post-breakfast glucose, post-lunch glucose, post-dinner glucose, bedtime glucose, the dawn phenomenon, time in target glucose range (TIR, glucose 3.9–10 mmol/L) and time above target glucose range (TAR, glucose > 10 mmol/L).

Results

Sedentary time was associated with higher pre-breakfast glucose (p = 0.001), pre-dinner glucose (p < 0.001), post-lunch glucose (p = 0.005), post-dinner glucose (p = 0.013) and the dawn phenomenon (p < 0.001). Breaks in sedentary time were associated with lower pre-breakfast glucose (p = 0.023), pre-dinner glucose (p = 0.023), post-breakfast glucose (p < 0.001) and the dawn phenomenon (p = 0.004). The association between sedentary time and less TIR (p = 0.022) and the association between breaks in sedentary time and more TIR (p = 0.001) were also observed.

Conclusions

Reducing sedentary time and promoting breaks in sedentary time could be clinically relevant to improve intra-day glucose regulation in type 2 diabetes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00421-019-04261-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Structure and process of dementia care and patient outcomes after hip surgery in elderly people with dementia: A retrospective observational study in Japan

BACKGROUND

Japan introduced the financial incentives for dementia special care at hospitals in the fee schedule in April 2016.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the financial incentives for dementia special care contributed to better patient outcomes after hip surgery for older adults with dementia.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database and the Reporting on medical functions of hospital beds data.

SETTING

Acute care hospitals adopting the Diagnosis Procedure Combination system in Japan.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20,393 eligible patients aged 65 years or older with dementia who underwent hip surgeries and discharged from 405 hospitals from April 2016 to March 2017.

METHODS

There are two levels of dementia care quality categories in the financial incentives for dementia special care as follows: Type 1 requires a multidisciplinary team with geriatric and dementia care expertise and Type 2 requires to assign trained nurses who underwent dementia training at every general ward. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality, readmission within 30 days, and length of hospital stay. We performed generalized estimating equation model or logistic generalized estimating equation models adjusting for individual and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

Among the 405 hospitals, the numbers of hospitals without dementia care incentive, those with Type 1, and those with Type 2 were 207, 99, and, 99, respectively. Overall, the prevalence of in-hospital death and readmission within 30 days was 2.01% and 2.70%, respectively. Overall, the mean (standard deviation, SD) length of hospital stay was 32.0 (20.0) days. There were no significant associations between dementia special care and in-hospital mortality in Type 1 (adjusted OR [odds ratio] =0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66-1.16) and Type 2 (adjusted OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.92-1.52), and readmission within 30 days in Type 1 (adjusted OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.89-1.38) and Type 2 (adjusted OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.83-1.29). Length of hospital stay was not significantly different among hospitals with and without incentive, Type 1 (coefficient -0.23, 95% CI = -2.64-2.18.), and Type 2 (coefficient 0.87, 95% CI = -1.54-3.28). An increase in patient-to-nurse ratio was significantly associated with 2.25 days longer length of hospital stay (95% CI 1.00-3.51).

CONCLUSION

Dementia care incentive was not associated with better outcomes in elderly with dementia who underwent hip surgery in Japan, but the worse nurse workload was associated with longer length of hospital stay. Further long-term assessment is necessary.

Quality of reporting in abstracts of RCTs published in emergency medicine journals: a systematic survey of the literature suggests we can do better

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between the publication of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials extension for abstracts (CONSORT-EA) and other variables of interest on the quality of reporting of abstracts of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published in emergency medicine (EM) journals.

METHODS

We performed a survey of the literature, comparing the quality of reporting before (2005-2007) with after (2014-2015) the publication of the dedicated CONSORT-EA in 2008. The quality of reporting was measured as the sum of items of the CONSORT-EA checklist reported in each abstract, ranging from 0 to 15. The main explanatory variable was the period of publication: pre-CONSORT-EA versus post-CONSORT-EA public. Other explanatory variables were journal's endorsement of the CONSORT statement, number of centres participating in the study, study's sample size, type of intervention, significance of results, source of funding and study setting. We analysed the data using generalised estimation equations, performing a univariate and a multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

We retrieved 844 articles, and randomly selected 60 per period for review, after stratifying for journal. The mean (SD) number of items reported was 6.4 (1.9) in the period before and 6.9 (1.8) in the period after the publication of the CONSORT-EA, with an adjusted mean difference (aMD) of 0.47 (95% CI -0.13 to 1.06). Abstracts of trials of pharmacological interventions had a significantly larger mean number of reported items than those of trials of non-pharmacological interventions (aMD 1.59; 95% CI 0.94 to 2.24).

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of reporting in abstracts of RCTs published in EM journals is low and was not significantly impacted by the publication of a dedicated CONSORT-EA.

How is the Doctor Feeling? ICU Provider Sentiment is Associated with Diagnostic Imaging Utilization

The judgment of intensive care unit (ICU) providers is difficult to measure using conventional structured electronic medical record (EMR) data. However, provider sentiment may be a proxy for such judgment. Utilizing 10 years of EMR data, this study evaluates the association between provider sentiment and diagnostic imaging utilization. We extracted daily positive / negative sentiment scores of written provider notes, and used a Poisson regression to estimate sentiment association with the total number of daily imaging reports. After adjusting for confounding factors, we found that (1) negative sentiment was associated with increased imaging utilization $(p < 0.01)$, (2) sentiment's association was most pronounced at the beginning of the ICU stay $(p < 0.01)$, and (3) the presence of any form of sentiment increased diagnostic imaging utilization up to a critical threshold $(p < 0.01)$. Our results indicate that provider sentiment may clarify currently unexplained variance in resource utilization and clinical practice.

Structural coloration predicts the outcome of male contests in the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx scintillans (Odonata: Polythoridae)

Iridescence is an optical effect that produces angle dependent coloration in animals. Recently, studies have attempted to unveil structures behind such elaborated visual signals and associated behaviors in Odonata. Here, we studied males of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx scintillans, which have hindwings that exhibit pronounced iridescence. This optical feature is used by the damselflies for intra-specific communication during territorial fights and courtship. The main question we addressed was whether male wing structural coloration may predict the outcome of male-male contests. We also studied the wing ultrastructure, in order to reveal the mechanisms that are responsible for wing coloration. Using various microscopal and spectroscopal techniques, we demonstrate that hindwing coloration is derived from two main effects: (1) light interference in the cuticle multilayer and (2) a specific angle dependent light scattering and antireflective properties of the epicuticular wax coverage. The results of our field experiment show that wing pigmentation and the hue of the dorsal surface of the hindwings is correlated with the outcome of territorial contests. This is one of the first studies showing that structural coloration derived from multilayer interference may influence the outcome of intrasexual agonistic interactions. This indicates that multicomponent structural coloration in visually guided insects may be under selective forces of male-male competition for resources and females.

Course of Disordered Eating Behavior in Young People With Early-Onset Type I Diabetes: Prevalence, Symptoms, and Transition Probabilities

PURPOSE

The aims of this study were to analyze the prevalence and course of disordered eating behavior (DEB) in adolescents with intensively treated type I diabetes, describe differences in age-specific DEB symptoms, and identify predictors of current DEB.

METHODS

Data were taken from 332/218 11- to 27-year-old participants (55.7% girls/women, mean age [SD] 17.8 [3.4] years, mean diabetes duration 14.9 [3.0] years) of two/three surveys of a Germany-wide longitudinal study on early-onset and long duration diabetes, respectively. A diabetes-adapted version of the SCOFF questionnaire was used to assess DEB. Both screening-based overall and age- and sex-specific prevalence of DEB and its symptoms were determined. To estimate transition probabilities between DEB states, first-order Markov transition models were implemented adjusting for previous sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and diabetes-specific covariates.

RESULTS

The overall screening-based DEB prevalence among all 1,318 observations was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.2%, 12.6%) with age-specific differences in symptom prevalence. Transition probabilities for developing/persistent DEB were twofold higher among female than male participants (risk ratio [RR] 2.3 [1.4, 3.9]/2.1 [1.3, 3.4]). In multiple adjusted regression, previous DEB (odds ratio [OR] 2.8 [95% CI 1.4, 5.6]), follow-up time (OR_{per 1-year increase} 3.4 [1.4, 8.0]), and sex (OR_girls/women 2.1 [1.1, 3.9]) were the most important predictors of current DEB with further weaker associations for previous age and HbA_1c.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contribute to better understanding the course of DEB in patients with early-onset diabetes and emphasize the relevance of regular DEB screenings including the age group of young adults.

Spousal Relative Income and Male Psychological Distress

Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics 2001-2015 dataset (6,035 households, 19,688 observations), this study takes a new approach to investigating the relationship between wife's relative income and husband's psychological distress, and finds it to be significantly U-shaped. Controlling for total household income, predicted male psychological distress reaches a minimum at a point where wives make 40% of total household income and proceeds to increase, to reach highest level when men are entirely economically dependent on their wives. These results reflect the stress associated with being the sole breadwinner, and more significantly, with gender norm deviance due to husbands being outearned by their wives. Interestingly, the relationship between wife's relative income and husband's psychological distress is not found among couples where wives outearned husbands at the beginning of their marriage pointing to importance of marital selection. Finally, patterns reported by wives are not as pronouncedly U-shaped as those reported by husbands.

Sequential adaptive variables and subject selection for GEE methods

Modeling correlated or highly stratified multiple-response data is a common data analysis task in many applications, such as those in large epidemiological studies or multisite cohort studies. The generalized estimating equations method is a popular statistical method used to analyze these kinds of data, because it can manage many types of unmeasured dependence among outcomes. Collecting large amounts of highly stratified or correlated response data is time-consuming; thus, the use of a more aggressive sampling strategy that can accelerate this process-such as the active-learning methods found in the machine-learning literature-will always be beneficial. In this study, we integrate adaptive sampling and variable selection features into a sequential procedure for modeling correlated response data. Besides reporting the statistical properties of the proposed procedure, we also use both synthesized and real data sets to demonstrate the usefulness of our method.

Management factors affecting adrenal glucocorticoid activity of tourist camp elephants in Thailand and implications for elephant welfare

Elephant camps are among the most popular destinations in Thailand for tourists from many countries. A wide range of management strategies are used by these camps, which can have varied impacts on health and welfare of elephants. The objectives of this study were to examine relationships between FGM (fecal glucocorticoid metabolite) concentrations and camp management factors (work routine, walking, restraint, rest area, foraging), and to other welfare indicators (stereotypic behaviors, body condition, foot health, and skin wounds). Data were obtained on 84 elephants (18 males and 66 females) from 15 elephant camps over a 1-year period. Elephants were examined every 3 months and assigned a body condition score, foot score, and wound score. Fecal samples were collected twice monthly for FGM analysis. Contrary to some beliefs, elephants in the observation only program where mahouts did not carry an ankus for protection had higher FGM concentrations compared to those at camps that offered riding with a saddle and shows. Elephants that were tethered in the forest at night had lower FGM concentrations compared to elephants that were kept in open areas inside the camps. There was an inverse relationship between FGM concentrations and occurrence of stereotypy, which was not anticipated. Thus, assessing adrenal activity via monitoring of FGM concentrations can provide important information on factors affecting the well-being of elephants. Results suggest that more naturalistic housing conditions and providing opportunities to exercise may be good for elephants under human care in Thailand, and that a no riding, no hook policy does not necessarily guarantee good welfare.

A gender-based analysis of nonmedical prescription opioid use among people who use illicit drugs

BACKGROUND

Research investigating the unique impacts associated with engaging in nonmedical prescription opioid use (NMPOU) among males and females who also use illicit drugs is needed.

METHODS

Data were collected between 2013 and 2017 from two linked prospective cohort studies in Vancouver: the At-Risk Youth Study and Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify factors associated with engaging in NMPOU among females and males separately.

RESULTS

Among 1459 participants, 534 were female (37%). Similar proportions of females (46%) and males (48%) engaged in NMPOU at their first visit during the study period. In multivariable analyses, factors associated with NMPOU among both males and females included heroin use, overdose, drug dealing, and difficulty accessing health and social services. Among females, those who engaged in NMPOU were more likely to report Caucasian or white ethnicity, cocaine use, crystal methamphetamine use, and sex work; among males, those who engaged in NMPOU were older, reported crack use and engaged in binge drug use (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of NMPOU was similar among males and females who use illicit drugs in Vancouver, and NMPOU was independently associated with markers of vulnerability among both genders. Findings highlight the need for a comprehensive public health approach to address NMPOU that integrates overdose prevention and reversal services, employment opportunities, and better access to services for both women and men.

Sex disparities in the assessment and outcomes of chest pain presentations in emergency departments

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether sex differences exist in the triage, management and outcomes associated with non-traumatic chest pain presentations in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

All adults (≥18 years) with non-traumatic chest pain presentations to three EDs in Melbourne, Australia between 2009 and 2013 were retrospectively analysed. Data sources included routinely collected hospital databases. Triage scoring of the urgency of presentation, time to medical examination, cardiac troponin testing, admission to specialised care units, and in-ED and in-hospital mortality were each modelled using the generalised estimating equations approach.

RESULTS

Overall 54 138 patients (48.7% women) presented with chest pain, contributing to 76 216 presentations, of which 26 282 (34.5%) were cardiac. In multivariable analyses, compared with men, women were 18% less likely to be allocated an urgency of 'immediate review' or 'within 10 min review' (OR=0.82, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.85), 16% less likely to be examined within the first hour of arrival to the ED by an emergency physician (0.84, 0.81 to 0.87), 20% less likely to have a troponin test performed (0.80, 0.77 to 0.83), 36% less likely to be admitted to a specialised care unit (0.64, 0.61 to 0.68), and 35% (p=0.039) and 36% (p=0.002) more likely to die in the ED and in the hospital, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the ED, systemic sex bias, to the detriment of women, exists in the early management and treatment of non-traumatic chest pain. Future studies that identify the drivers explaining why women presenting with chest pain are disadvantaged in terms of care, relative to men, are warranted.

Community Empowerment Partners (CEPs): A Breast Health Education Program for African-American Women

Peer educators have been shown to provide effective interventions in breast cancer screening. Few studies have compared the effects of peer education on breast cancer knowledge among peer educators and the community members who are subsequently reached through the peer education. Further, little is known as to whether those who received the education then go on to educate others in the community. The purpose of this study is to address those gaps. Using a pre- and post-test study design, we trained peer educators, provided the educators with resources to train community members, and assessed changes in knowledge. We sought to train ten educators and recommended each train ten community members in breast cancer knowledge and screening strategies. A total of 14 peer educators were trained, who subsequently trained a total of 121 community members, of whom 94 were African American women. Peer educators and community members, showed comparable increases in knowledge. Community members who were educated also increased intention to discuss breast cancer and breast cancer screening with their family, friends, and acquaintances. Our study suggests that it is feasible to train peer educators to increase knowledge among community members to the same level that they themselves experience when trained. Further, community members are interested in sharing information learned related to how much they learn from peer educators.

Individual and environmental risk factors associated with fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations in zoo-housed Asian and African elephants

A recent large-scale welfare study in North America involving 106 Asian (Elephas maximus) and 131 African (Loxodonta africana) elephants at 64 accredited facilities identified links (i.e., risk factors) between zoo environmental factors and a number of welfare outcomes (stereotypic behavior, ovarian acyclicity, hyperprolactinemia, walking and recumbence, body condition, health status, serum cortisol). For this population of elephants, we used the same epidemiological methods to examine associations between those risk factors and two additional welfare outcomes, mean concentration and individual variability (CV) of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations (FGM) as indicators of stress. Results indicate that African elephants are more responsive to social stressors than Asians, and that poor joint health is a stress-related welfare problem for Asian, but not African elephants in the North American population. For both species, higher FGM concentrations were associated with zoos located at more northern latitudes, whereas lower FGM concentrations were associated with having free access to indoor/outdoor spaces, and spending more time in managed interactions with staff. Also important for captive management, elephants having diverse enrichment options and belonging to compatible social groups exhibited reduced intra-individual variability in FGM concentrations. Our findings show that aspects of the zoo environment can be potential sources of stress for captive elephants, and that there are management activities that may facilitate coping with zoo conditions. Given species differences in factors that affected FGM, targeted, species-specific management approaches likely are needed to ensure good welfare for all elephants.

Incidence, risk factors, and outcome of pulmonary invasive fungal disease after respiratory virus infection in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation recipients

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence that community-acquired respiratory virus (CARV) increases the risk of pulmonary invasive fungal disease (IFD) in the allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) setting. To date, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the risk factors (RFs), as well as the most critical period for subsequent onset of IFD after CARV infections in allo-HSCT recipients.

METHODS

In this prospective longitudinal observational CARV survey, we analyzed the effect of CARV on subsequent IFD development in 287 adult allo-HSCT recipients diagnosed with 597 CARV episodes from December 2013 to December 2018. Multiplex PCR panel assays were used to test CARVs in respiratory specimens.

FINDINGS

Twenty-nine out of 287 allo-HSCT recipients (10%) developed IFD after a CARV episode. The median time of IFD onset was 21 days (range, 0-158 days) from day of the first CARV detection. Generalized estimating equation model identified 4 risk factors for IFD: ATG-based conditioning regimen [odds ratio (OR) 2.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-5.2, P = .038], CARV lower respiratory tract disease (OR 10.6, 95% CI 3.7-30.8, P < .0001), CARV infection during the first year after transplant (OR 5.34, 95% CI 1.3-21.8, P = .014), and corticosteroids during CARV (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.3, P = .03).

CONCLUSION

Allo-HSCT recipients conditioned with ATG and under corticosteroid therapy at the time of CARV LRTD during the first year after transplant may require close monitoring for subsequent IFD.

Adverse childhood experiences predict opioid relapse during treatment among rural adults

Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are a public health concern and strong predictor of substance abuse, but no studies to date have explored the association between ACE and opioid relapse during medication-assisted treatment. Using an observational design, we examined this relationship using archived medical records of 87 patients who attended opioid use disorder treatment (buprenorphine-naloxone and group counseling) at a rural medical clinic. All variables were collected from medical files. ACE scores were derived from a 10-item screening questionnaire administered at intake, a regular procedure for this clinic. The primary outcome was opioid relapse observed at each visit, as indicated by self-reported opioid use, positive urine drug screen for opioids, or prescription drug database results for opioid acquisition. The sample was 100% Caucasian and 75% male. A total of 2052 visit observations from the 87 patients were extracted from the medical records. Patients had an average of 23.6 (SD = 22) treatment visits. Opioid relapse occurred in 54% of patients. Results indicated that for every unit increase in ACE score, there was an increase of 17% in the odds of relapse (95% CI: 1.05-1.30, p = .005). Additionally, each treatment visit was associated with a 2% reduction in the odds of opioid relapse (95% CI: 0.97-0.99, p = .008). We conclude that ACE may increase the risk for poor response to buprenorphine-naloxone treatment due to high rates of opioid relapse during the first treatment visits. However, consistent adherence to treatment is likely to reduce the odds of opioid relapse.

The Influence of Inpatient Physician Continuity on Hospital Discharge

BACKGROUND

Inpatient attending physicians may change during a patient's hospital stay. This study measured the association of attending physician continuity and discharge probability.

METHODS

All patients admitted to general medicine service at a tertiary care teaching hospital in 2015 were included. Attending inpatient physician continuity was measured as the consecutive number of days each patient was treated by the same staff-person. Generalized estimating equation methods were used to model the adjusted association of attending inpatient physician continuity with daily discharge probability.

RESULTS

6301 admissions involving 41 internists, 5134 patients, and 38,242 patient-days were studied. The final model had moderate discrimination (c-statistic = 0.70) but excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 11.5, 18 df, p value 0.89). Daily discharge probability decreased significantly with greater severity of illness, higher patient death risk, and longer length of stay, on admission day, for elective admissions, and on the weekend. Discharge likelihood increased significantly with attending inpatient physician continuity; daily discharge probability increased for the average patient from 15.3 to 20.9% when the consecutive number of days the patient was treated by the same attending inpatient physician increased from 1 to 7 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Inpatient attending physician continuity is significantly associated with the likelihood of patient discharge. This finding could be considered if resource utilization is a factor when scheduling attending inpatient physician coverage.

Investigating the Impact of Geographic Location on Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: A National Study of the SEER Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

Early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with decreased mortality and potential avoidance of chemotherapy. CRC screening rates are lower in rural communities and patient outcomes are poorer. This study examines the extent to which United States' rural residents present at a more advanced stage of CRC compared to nonrural residents.

METHODS

Using the 2010-2014 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Incidence data, 132,277 patients with CRC were stratified using their county of residence and urban influence codes into 5 categories (metro, adjacent micropolitan, nonadjacent micropolitan, small rural, and remote small rural). Logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between late stage at diagnosis and county-level characteristics including level of rurality, persistent poverty, low education and low employment, and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

In the adjusted analysis the rate of stage 4 CRC at diagnosis differed across geographic classification, with patients living in remote small rural counties having the highest rate of stage 4 disease (range: 19.2% in nonadjacent micropolitan counties to 22.7% in remote small rural counties). Other factors, such as patient characteristics, insurance status, and regional practice variation were also significantly associated with late-stage CRC diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Geographic residence is associated with the rate of stage 4 disease at presentation. Additional patient factors are associated with stage 4 CRC disease at diagnosis. Cancer outcomes are worse for rural patients, and late stage at diagnosis may partially account for this disparity. These differences have persisted over time and suggest areas for further research, patient engagement, and education.

The association between evidence of a predator threat and responsiveness to alarm calls in Western Australian magpies (Cracticus tibicen dorsalis)

Alarm calls are a widespread form of antipredator defence and being alerted to the presence of predators by the alarm calls of conspecifics is considered one of the benefits of group living. However, while social information can allow an individual to gain additional information, it can also at times be inaccurate or irrelevant. Such variation in the accuracy of social information is predicted to select for receivers to discriminate between sources of social information. In this study, we used playback experiments to determine whether Western Australian magpies (Cracticus tibicen dorsalis) respond to the predator information associated with alarm calls. Magpies were exposed to the alarm calls of two group members that differed in the threat associated with the alarm call: one call was played in the presence of a predator model while the other was not—in order to establish differences in the predator information provided by each caller. We then played back the alarm calls of the same group members in the absence of the predator model to determine whether magpies responded differently to signallers in response to the previous association between the alarm call and a predator threat. We found that receivers showed significantly greater levels of responsiveness to signallers that previously gave alarm calls in the appropriate context. Thus, the accuracy of threat-based information influenced subsequent receiver response.

Prevalence and correlates of depression and anxiety symptoms among out-of-school adolescent girls and young women in Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who are out of school are at higher risk of depressive and anxiety disorders compared to their school attending peers. However, little is known about the prevalence and risk factors for these conditions among out-of-school AGYW. This study examines the prevalence of depression and anxiety and associated factors in a community sample of out-of-school AGYW in Tanzania.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from an on-going cluster randomized controlled trial in North-West Tanzania was conducted. A total of 3013 out-of-school AGYW aged 15 to 23 years from 30 clusters were included. Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4), a tool comprising of PHQ-2 and Generalized Anxiety Disorders (GAD-2) screeners. Data were collected using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI). A random-effects logistic regression was fitted for binary outcomes and an ordinal logistic regression model with robust variance was used to adjust for clustering at the village level. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to explore the associations between mental disorders symptoms and other factors.

RESULTS

The prevalence of depressive (PHQ-2 ≥ 3) and anxiety (GAD-2 ≥ 3) symptoms among out-of-school AGYW were 36% (95% CI 33.8%-37.3%) and 31% (95% CI 29.0%-32.3%) respectively. Further, using the PHQ-4 tool, 33% (95% CI 30.8%-34.2%) had mild, 20% (95% CI 18.3%-21.1%) moderate and 6% (95% CI 5.5%-7.2%) had severe symptoms of anxiety and depression. After adjusting for other covariates, two factors most strongly associated with having anxiety symptoms were violence experience from sexual partners (AOR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.36-1.96) and HIV positive status (AOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03-2.31). Likewise, living alone, with younger siblings or others (AOR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.47-4.29) and violence experience from sexual partners (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.59-2.27) were strongly associated with depression symptoms. Having savings (AOR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.70-0.95) and emotional support (AOR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.67-0.99) were protective against depression and anxiety, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Depressive and anxiety symptoms are prevalent among out-of-school AGYW in Tanzania. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and scale-up mental health disorder screening, referral for diagnosis and management.

Corneal Biomechanics and Visual Field Progression in Eyes with Seemingly Well-Controlled Intraocular Pressure

PURPOSE

To investigate the incidence and risk factors for glaucomatous visual field progression in eyes with well-controlled intraocular pressure (IOP).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 460 eyes of 334 patients with glaucoma under treatment.

METHODS

Study subjects had a mean follow-up of 4.3±0.8 years. Patients were classified as well controlled if all IOP measurements were less than 18 mmHg. Rates of visual field progression were calculated using ordinary least-squares linear regression of standard automated perimetry (SAP) mean deviation (MD) values over time. Progression was defined as a significantly negative MD slope (alpha = 0.05).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of SAP MD change; mean and peak IOP, and IOP fluctuation; and corneal biomechanics: corneal hysteresis (CH), central corneal thickness (CCT), and corneal index.

RESULTS

Of the 179 eyes with well-controlled IOP, 42 (23.5%) demonstrated visual field progression. There was no significant difference between progressing and stable patients in baseline MD (-6.4±7.1 decibels [dB] vs. -6.0±6.2 dB; P = 0.346), mean IOP (11.7±2.0 mmHg vs. 12.1±2.3 mmHg; P = 0.405), IOP fluctuation (1.6±0.6 mmHg vs. 1.6±0.5 mmHg; P = 0.402), or peak IOP (14.3±1.9 mmHg vs. 14.6±2.1 mmHg; P = 0.926). Progressing eyes had significantly lower CH (8.6±1.3 mmHg vs. 9.4±1.6 mmHg; P = 0.014) and thinner CCT (515.1±33.1 μm vs. 531.1±42.4 μm; P = 0.018, respectively) compared with stable eyes. In the multivariate analysis, a 1 standard deviation lower corneal index, a summation of normalized versions of CH and CCT, resulted in a 68% higher risk of progression (odds ratio, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.62; P = 0.021).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one-quarter of eyes with well-controlled IOP may show visual field progression over time. Thin cornea and low CH are main risk factors.

Do prey select for vacant hunting domains to minimize a multi-predator threat?

Many ecosystems contain sympatric predator species that hunt in different places and times. We tested whether this provides vacant hunting domains, places and times where and when predators are least active, that prey use to minimize threats from multiple predators simultaneously. We measured how northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) responded to wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor), and found that elk selected for areas outside the high-risk domains of both predators consistent with the vacant domain hypothesis. This enabled elk to avoid one predator without necessarily increasing its exposure to the other. Our results demonstrate how the diel cycle can serve as a key axis of the predator hunting domain that prey exploit to manage predation risk from multiple sources. We argue that a multi-predator, spatiotemporal framework is vital to understand the causes and consequences of prey spatial response to predation risk in environments with more than one predator.