Enabling the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner

BACKGROUND

Studying long-term trends in educational inequalities in health is important for monitoring and policy evaluation. Data issues regarding the allocation of people to educational groups hamper the study and international comparison of educational inequalities in mortality. For the UK, this has been acknowledged, but no satisfactory solution has been proposed.

OBJECTIVE

To enable the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales (E&W) in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner, we propose and implement an approach to deal with the data issues regarding mortality data by educational level.

METHODS

We employed 10-year follow-ups of individuals aged 20+ from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS), which include education information from each decennial census (1971-2011) linked to individual death records, for a 1% representative sample of the E&W population. We assigned the individual cohort data to single ages and calendar years, and subsequently obtained aggregate all-cause mortality data by education, sex, age (30+), and year (1972-2017). Our data adjustment approach optimised the available education information at the individual level, and adjusts-at the aggregate level-for trend discontinuities related to the identified data issues, and for differences with country-level mortality data for the total population.

RESULTS

The approach resulted in (1) a time-consistent and internationally comparable categorisation of educational attainment into the low, middle, and high educated; (2) the adjustment of identified data-quality related discontinuities in the trends over time in the share of personyears and deaths by educational level, and in the crude and the age-standardised death rate by and across educational levels; (3) complete mortality data by education for ONS-LS members aged 30+ in 1972-2017 which aligns with country-level mortality data for the total population; and (4) the estimation of inequality measures using established methods. For those aged 30+ , both absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality first increased and subsequently decreased.

CONCLUSION

We obtained additional insights into long-term trends in educational inequalities in mortality in E&W, and illustrated the potential effects of different data issues. We recommend the use of (part of) the proposed approach in other contexts.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in the German federal states in 2020 and 2021

The mortality impact of COVID-19 has mainly been studied at the national level. However, looking at the aggregate impact of the pandemic at the country level masks heterogeneity at the subnational level. Subnational assessments are essential for the formulation of public health policies. This is especially important for federal countries with decentralised healthcare systems, such as Germany. Therefore, we assess geographical variation in the mortality impact of COVID-19 for the 16 German federal states in 2020 and 2021 and the sex differences therein. For this purpose, we adopted an ecological study design, using population-level mortality data by federal state, age, and sex, for 2005-2021 obtained from the German Federal Statistical Office. We quantified the impact of the pandemic using the excess mortality approach. We estimated period life expectancy losses (LE losses), excess premature mortality, and excess deaths by comparing their observed with their expected values. The expected mortality was based on projected age-specific mortality rates using the Lee-Carter methodology. Saxony was the most affected region in 2020 (LE loss 0.77 years, 95% CI 0.74;0.79) while Saarland was the least affected (-0.04, -0.09;0.003). In 2021, the regions with the highest losses were Thuringia (1.58, 1.54;1.62) and Saxony (1.57, 1.53;1.6) and the lowest in Schleswig-Holstein (0.13, 0.07;0.18). Furthermore, in 2021, eastern regions experienced higher LE losses (mean: 1.13, range: 0.85 years) than western territories (mean: 0.5, range: 0.72 years). The regional variation increased between 2020 and 2021, and was higher among males than among females, particularly in 2021. We observed an unequal distribution of the mortality impact of COVID-19 at the subnational level in Germany, particularly in 2021 among the male population. The observed differences between federal states might be partially explained by the heterogeneous spread of the virus in 2020 and by differences in the population's propensity to follow preventive guidelines.

The impact of estimation methods for alcohol-attributable mortality on long-term trends for the general population and by educational level in Finland and Italy (Turin)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This paper assesses the impact of estimation methods for general and education-specific trends in alcohol-attributable mortality (AAM), and develops an alternative method that can be used when the data available for study is limited.

METHODS

We calculated yearly adult (30+) age-standardised and age-specific AAM rates by sex for the general population and by educational level (low, middle, high) in Finland and Turin (Italy) from 1972 to 2017. Furthermore the slope index of inequality and relative inequality index were computed by country and sex. We compared trends, levels, age distributions, and educational inequalities in AAM according to three existing estimation methods: (1) Underlying COD (UCOD), (2) Multiple COD (MCOD) method, and (3) the population attributable fractions (PAF)-method. An alternative method is developed based on the pros and cons of these methods and the outcomes of the comparison.

RESULTS

The UCOD and MCOD approaches revealed mainly increasing trends in AAM compared to the declining trends according to the PAF approach. These differences are more pronounced when examining AAM trends by educational groups, particularly for Finnish men. Until age 65, age patterns are similar for all methods, and levels nearly identical for MCOD and PAF in Finland. Our novel method assumes a similar trend and age pattern as observed in UCOD, but adjusts its level upwards so that it matches the level of the PAF approach for ages 30-64. Our new method yields levels in-between UCOD and PAF for Turin (Italy), and resembles the MCOD rates in Finland for females. Relative inequalities deviate for the PAF-method (lower levels) compared to other methods, whereas absolute inequalities are generally lower for UCOD than all three methods that combine wholly and partly AAM.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of method to estimate AAM affects not only levels, but also general and education-specific trends and inequalities. Our newly developed method constitutes a better alternative for multiple-country studies by educational level than the currently used UCOD-method when the data available for study is limited to underlying causes of death.

Contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation in Europe

Much less is known about the sex gap in lifespan variation, which reflects inequalities in the length of life, than about the sex gap in life expectancy (average length of life). We examined the contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation for 28 European countries, grouped into five European regions. In 2010-15, males in Europe displayed a 6.8-year-lower life expectancy and a 2.3-year-higher standard deviation in lifespan than females, with clear regional differences. Sex differences in lifespan variation are attributable largely to higher external mortality among males aged 30-39, whereas sex differences in life expectancy are due predominantly to higher smoking-related and cardiovascular disease mortality among males aged 60-69. The distinct findings for the sex gap in lifespan variation and the sex gap in life expectancy provide additional insights into the survival differences between the sexes.

Reversals in past long-term trends in educational inequalities in life expectancy for selected European countries

BACKGROUND

Across Europe, socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are large and persistent. To better understand the drivers of past trends in socioeconomic mortality inequalities, we identified phases and potential reversals in long-term trends in educational inequalities in remaining life expectancy at age 30 (e30), and assessed the contributions of mortality changes among the low-educated and the high-educated at different ages.

METHODS

We used individually linked annual mortality data by educational level (low, middle and high), sex and single age (30+) from 1971/1972 onwards for England and Wales, Finland and Italy (Turin). We applied segmented regression to trends in educational inequalities in e30 (e30 high-educated minus e30 low-educated) and employed a novel demographic decomposition technique.

RESULTS

We identified several phases and breakpoints in the trends in educational inequalities in e30. The long-term increases (Finnish men, 1982-2008; Finnish women, 1985-2017; and Italian men, 1976-1999) were driven by faster mortality declines among the high-educated aged 65-84, and by mortality increases among the low-educated aged 30-59. The long-term decreases (British men, 1976-2008, and Italian women, 1972-2003) were driven by faster mortality improvements among the low-educated than among the high-educated at age 65+. The recent stagnation of increasing inequality (Italian men, 1999) and reversals from increasing to decreasing inequality (Finnish men, 2008) and from decreasing to increasing inequality (British men, 2008) were driven by mortality trend changes among the low-educated aged 30-54.

CONCLUSION

Educational inequalities are plastic. Mortality improvements among the low-educated at young ages are imperative for achieving long-term decreases in educational inequalities in e30.

District-Level Mortality Convergence in Reunified Germany: Long-Term Trends and Contextual Determinants

The mortality gap between former East and West Germany decreased rapidly in the decade following the reunification of the country in 1990. However, because no previous study has estimated life expectancy (e0) over time for all German districts, the extent of mortality convergence across districts and its determinants are largely unknown. We used a novel relational Bayesian model to estimate district e0 in Germany during 1997-2016, examined mortality convergence using a novel convergence groups approach, and explored the role of selected district characteristics in the process. Differences in e0 between German districts decreased for both sexes during 1997-2016, mainly driven by rapid mortality improvements in eastern German districts. However, considerable heterogeneity in district-level e0 trajectories within federal states was evident. For example, district clusters in northwestern Germany showed increasing e0 disadvantage, which led to a north-south divergence in mortality. A multinomial regression analysis showed a robust association between the e0 trajectory and the district-level tax base and long-term unemployment but not with hospital density. Thus, an equitable "leveling up" of health seems possible with policies investing in places and the people who inhabit them.

The association of unhealthy and healthy food store accessibility with obesity prevalence among adults in the Netherlands: A spatial analysis

Introduction

Obesity prevalence has almost tripled in Europe since 1980, and the obesogenic (food) environment is hypothesised to be one of the main drivers. Still, empirical evidence is rare for Europe.

Objective

This ecological study explores spatial patterns of obesity prevalence of adults (aged 19+) in the Netherlands in 2016. It studies, in particular, its global associations with (un)healthy food store accessibility while assessing local differences and evaluating the importance of the immediate versus the wider food surroundings.

Methods

In our ecological study, we used small-area estimated obesity prevalence (adults, aged 19+) from 2836 neighbourhoods (six-digit postal codes, wijken) and combined this with measures from Statistics Netherlands on accessibility to (unhealthy) fast food and (healthy) fresh food. Spatial lag of X (SLX) models were estimated for the entire Netherlands to explore global associations. Separate models for urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhoods and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) were estimated to explore and visualise local variations in the associations. Total associations from the SLX models were then decomposed to yield contributions of the immediate and wider food surroundings.

Results

Regional clusters of high obesity were observed in selected areas in the north-east, the south-west, and south-east. Limited accessibility to unhealthy food was globally associated with lower obesity prevalence, whereas better accessibility to fresh food stores and supermarkets was not. The association regarding worse accessibility to unhealthy food was strongest for urban neighbourhoods, especially for the Randstad region. In urban settings, also better accessibility to fresh food stores proved relevant. The wider food surrounding proved more important than the immediate food surrounding, throughout.

Discussion

Public policies addressing obesity might be more effective when reducing the presence of unhealthy food rather than expanding healthy food supply. Moreover, they should focus on urban regions and high obesity clusters, thereby considering wider food surroundings.

Early-life exposure to economic stress and metabolic risks in young adulthood: the children of the reunification in East Germany

BACKGROUND

Research on the long-term health consequences of early-life exposure to economic crises is scarce. We examine for the first time the long-term effects of early-life exposure to an economic crisis on metabolic health risks. We study objective health measures, and exploit the quasi-experimental situation of the postreunification economic crisis in East Germany.

METHODS

Data were drawn from two waves of the longitudinal German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (2003-2006, 2014-2017). We compared 392 East Germans who were exposed to the economic crisis in utero and at ages 0-5 with 1123 of their West German counterparts using propensity score matching on individual and family characteristics. We assessed blood pressure, cholesterol, blood fat and body mass index (BMI); both combined as above-average metabolic health risks and individually at ages 19-30.

RESULTS

Early-life exposure to the economic crisis significantly increased the number of above-average metabolic health risks in young adulthood by 0.1482 (95% CI 0.0169 to 0.2796), which was 5.8% higher compared with no exposure. Among individuals exposed in utero, only females showed significant effects. Early-life exposure to the economic crisis was associated with increased systolic (0.9969, 95% CI -0.2806 to 2.2743) and diastolic blood pressure (0.6786, 95% CI -0.0802 to 1.4373), and with increased BMI (0.0245, 95% CI -0.6516 to 0.7001).

CONCLUSION

The increased metabolic health risks found for women exposed to the postreunification economic crisis in-utero are likely attributable to increased economic stress. While the observed differences are small, they may foreshadow the emergence of greater health disparities in older age.

The progression of the tobacco epidemic in India on the national and regional level, 1998-2016

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the progression of the tobacco epidemic remains fragmented in low- and middle-income countries. In India, most of the studies that examined tobacco consumption focused on one time point, on the country as a whole, and on men. Despite important gender differences in tobacco consumption, vast economic and cultural differences exist within India. We, therefore, assessed the progression of the tobacco epidemic in India on both the national and the regional level, by gender.

METHODS

We use information on current tobacco use among Indians aged 15-49 from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) (1998-99, 2005-06, 2015-16) to estimate the age-standardized sex specific smoking and smokeless tobacco prevalence across India and its states.

RESULTS

Age-standardized tobacco use prevalence in India increased between 1998-1999 and 2005-2006, and declined from 2005-2006 to 2015-2016, simultaneously for men and women. There are substantial spatial differences in the progression of the tobacco epidemic in India. While tobacco use declined in the majority of states, we observe high and increasing use for men in the north-eastern states of Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland, and for women in the western state of Gujarat and north-eastern state of Manipur. We observed even more states with a recent increasing prevalence in either tobacco smoking or smokeless tobacco. Throughout, prevalence of tobacco use has been higher among men than women for all Indian regions, and remained higher than the national average in the north-eastern states.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that India and the majority of its states experienced a 'compressed tobacco epidemic' in which the prevalence of tobacco consumption increased and decreased simultaneously for women and men over a comparatively short period of time. Despite the overall progress India made in reducing tobacco use, further lowering tobacco consumption remains a public health priority, as the prevalence of smoking and/or smokeless tobacco use remains high in a number of states. We therefore conclude that tobacco regulations should be expanded with the aim of reducing the overall health burden associated with tobacco consumption across India.

Long-Term Trends in Obesity Prevalence by Socio-Economic Group in Five European Countries and the USA: The Relevance of the Diffusion of Innovations Theory

INTRODUCTION

Cross-national comparison suggests that the timing of the obesity epidemic differs across socio-economic groups (SEGs). Similar to the smoking epidemic, these differences might be described by the diffusion of innovations theory, which states that health behaviours diffuse from higher to lower SEGs. However, the applicability of the diffusion of innovations theory to long-term time trends in obesity by SEG is unknown. We studied long-term trends in the obesity prevalence by SEG in England, France, Finland, Italy, Norway, and the USA and examined whether trends are described by the diffusion of innovations theory.

METHODS

Obesity prevalence from 1978 to 2019 by educational level, sex, and age group (25+ years) from health surveys was harmonized, age-standardized, Loess-smoothed, and visualized. Prevalence rate differences were calculated, and segmented regression was performed to obtain annual percentage changes, which were compared over time and across SEGs.

RESULTS

Obesity prevalence among lower educated groups has exceeded that of higher educated groups, except among American men, in all countries throughout the study period. A comparable increase across educational levels was observed until approximately 2000. Recently, obesity prevalence stagnated among higher educated groups in Finland, France, Italy, and Norway and lower educated groups in England and the USA.

DISCUSSION

Recent trends in obesity prevalence by SEG are mostly in line with the diffusion of innovations theory; however, no diffusion from higher to lower SEGs at the start of the epidemic was found. The stagnation among higher SEGs but not lower SEGs suggests that the latter will likely experience the greatest future burden.

The Short-Term Effects of European Integration on Mortality Convergence: A Case Study of European Union's 2004 Enlargement

Although European integration can be expected to result in mortality convergence (reduced mortality differences), a life expectancy divide persists in the European Union (EU) between the old Member States (OMS) in the west and the new Member States (NMS) in the east. Studies investigating the impact of European integration on mortality convergence are rare and did not consider regional differences. We examine the short-term effects of the 2004 enlargement on mortality convergence at the supranational, national, and subnational levels. Using sex-specific life expectancies for 23 Member States (1990-2017) and the NUTS 2 regions in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland for 1992-2016, we examined the trend in sigma and beta mortality convergence measures at the country and regional levels using joinpoint regression. We found no compelling evidence that EU accession influenced the process of mortality convergence between OMS and NMS, or within the three NMS, over the short term. While there was overall beta and sigma convergence at the national level during 1990-2017, no regional convergence showed, and the trends in convergence did not significantly change at the time of EU accession or soon after (2004-2007). The accession in 2004 did not visibly impact the overall process of mortality convergence over the short term, likely because of the greater influence of country and region-specific policies and characteristics. The interaction of Member State and regional contexts with the mechanisms of European integration requires further study. Future enlargement procedures should emphasise tailored support to ensure more equitable gains from European integration.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-021-09596-y.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, lung function and cognitive performance: A prospective Dutch cohort study on the underlying routes

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particulate matter and black carbon is related to cognitive impairment and poor lung function, but less is known about the routes taken by different types of air pollutants to affect cognition.

OBJECTIVES

We tested two possible routes of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and black carbon (BC) in impairing cognition, and evaluated their importance: a direct route over the olfactory nerve or the blood stream, and an indirect route over the lung.

METHODS

We used longitudinal observational data for 49,705 people aged 18+ from 2006 to 2015 from the Dutch Lifelines cohort study. By linking current home addresses to air pollution exposure data from ELAPSE in 2010, long-term average exposure to PM_2.5 and BC was assessed. Lung function was measured by spirometry and Global Initiative (GLI) z-scores of forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were calculated. Cognitive performance was measured by cognitive processing time (CPT) assessed by the Cogstate Brief Battery. Linear structural equation modeling was performed to test direct/indirect associations.

RESULTS

Higher exposure to PM_2.5 but not BC was related to higher CPT and slower cognitive processing speed [Total Effect PM_2.5: FEV₁ model = 8.31 × 10^-3 (95% CI: 5.71 × 10^-3, 10.91 × 10^-3), FVC model = 8.30 × 10^-3 (95% CI: 5.69 × 10^-3, 10.90 × 10^-3)]. The direct association of PM_2.5 constituted more than 97% of the total effect. Mediation by lung function was low for PM_2.5 with a mediated proportion of 1.32% (FEV₁) and 2.05% (FVC), but higher for BC (7.01% and 13.82% respectively).

DISCUSSION

Our results emphasise the importance of the lung acting as a mediator in the relationship between both exposure to PM_2.5 and BC, and cognitive performance. However, higher exposure to PM_2.5 was mainly directly associated with worse cognitive performance, which emphasises the health-relevance of fine particles due to their ability to reach vital organs directly.

A two-parameter hazard function to describe age patterns of mortality in ancient Northwestern Europe

When seeking to describe the age patterns of mortality for ancient populations, researchers are often confronted with small sample sizes or with missing data for several age groups. The traditional approach to dealing with these challenges is to smooth or complement such patterns by matching them to a model life table, either directly or through the Brass logit transformation. This procedure requires an appropriate model life table, which may not be available. We propose a hazard model that is both flexible enough to accurately describe an age pattern of mortality in ancient Northwestern Europe and restrictive enough to complement incomplete data. This paper presents a hazard function that contains four free-to-choose parameters. Tested against a large collection of life tables for northwestern European countries from the 17th to the 21st century, the number of free-to-choose parameters is stepwise reduced from four to only two. Compared with the Brass logit transformation with the Princeton Model West as its reference, the presented two-parameter hazard model is shown to fit the abovementioned dataset much better. The mean fitting error is found to be half the size. Moreover, this model is shown to fit a 13th-century mortality age pattern much better. The proposed two-parameter hazard model is capable of fitting a wide range of age patterns of mortality more closely than the traditional approach can. We therefore conclude that the proposed model facilitates the smoothing and the completion of age patterns of mortality in ancient Northwestern Europe even if they deviate substantially from well-documented patterns.

The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe

BACKGROUND

Smoking, obesity and alcohol abuse greatly affect mortality and exhibit a distinct time dynamic, with their prevalence and associated mortality rates increasing and (eventually) declining over time. Their combined impact on secular trends in life expectancy is unknown but is relevant for understanding these trends. We therefore estimate the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.

METHODS

We used estimated national age-specific smoking-, obesity- and alcohol-attributable mortality fractions for 30 European countries by sex, 1990-2014, which we aggregated multiplicatively to obtain lifestyle-attributable mortality. We estimated potential gains in life expectancy by eliminating lifestyle-attributable mortality and compared past trends in life expectancy at birth (e0) with and without lifestyle-attributable mortality. We examined all countries combined, by region and individually.

RESULTS

Among men, the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on e0 declined from 6.6 years in 1990 to 5.8 years in 2014, mainly due to declining smoking-attributable mortality. Among women, the combined impact increased from 1.9 to 2.3 years due to mortality increases in all three lifestyle-related factors. The observed increase in e0 over the 1990-2014 period was 5.0 years for men and 4.0 years for women. After excluding lifestyle-attributable mortality, this increase would have been 4.2-4.3 years for both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Without the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol, the increase over time in life expectancy at birth would have been smaller among men but larger among women, resulting in a stable increase in e0, parallel for men and women.

Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol

Introduction: In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to unreliable outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle 'epidemics'. Methods: We project life expectancy for 18 European countries by taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on mortality, and the mortality experiences of forerunner populations. Results: We project that life expectancy in these 18 countries will increase from, on average, 83.4 years for women and 78.3 years for men in 2014 to 92.8 years for women and 90.5 years for men in 2065. Compared to others (Lee-Carter, Eurostat, United Nations), we project higher future life expectancy values and more realistic differences between countries and sexes. Conclusions: Our results imply longer individual lifespans, and more elderly in society. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (grant no. 452-13-001).

Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology

AIM

To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change.

METHODS

For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change).

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline).

CONCLUSION

Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

Can changes in education alter future population ageing in Asia and Europe?

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of the elderly remains rather heterogeneous. This study assesses the educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe, and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations changed. A comparative population ageing measure (the Comparative Prospective Old-Age Threshold [CPOAT]) was used, which recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. Combined data from projected age- and sex-specific life-tables (from the United Nations) and projected age- and sex-specific survival ratios by different levels of education (from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital) were used to construct projected life-tables (2015-2020, …, 2045-2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables, future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex were calculated. It was found that in both Asia and Europe, and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less-educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe's older population is better educated. In alternative future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. The results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed.

The Role of Smoking in Country Differences in Life Expectancy Across Europe, 1985-2014

INTRODUCTION

Smoking contributes substantially to mortality levels and trends. Its role in country differences in mortality has, however, hardly been quantified. The current study formally assesses the-so far unknown-changing contribution of smoking to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) across Europe.

METHODS

Using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex for 30 European countries from 1985 to 2014, the differences in e0 between each individual European country and the weighted average were decomposed into a smoking- and a nonsmoking-related part.

RESULTS

In 2014, e0 ranged from 70.8 years in Russia to 83.1 years in Switzerland. Men exhibited larger country differences than women (variance of 21.9 and 7.0 years, respectively). Country differences in e0 increased up to 2005 and declined thereafter. Among men, the average contribution of smoking to the country differences in e0 was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. Among women, the average relative contribution of smoking declined from 1991 to 2011, and smoking resulted in smaller differences with the average e0 level in the majority of European countries. For both sexes combined, the contribution of smoking to country differences in e0 was higher than 20% throughout the period.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking contributed substantially to the country differences in e0 in Europe, their increases up to 1991, and their decreases since 2005, especially among men. Policies that discourage smoking can help to reduce inequalities in mortality levels across Europe in the long run.

IMPLICATIONS

Smoking contributes substantially to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, particularly among men, for whom the contribution was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. In line with the anticipated progression of the smoking epidemic, the differences between European countries in e0 due to smoking are expected to further decline among men, but to increase among women. The role of smoking in mortality convergence since 2005 illustrates that smoking policies can help to reduce inequalities in life expectancy levels across Europe, particularly when they target smoking in countries with low e0.

Mortality convergence in the enlarged European Union: a systematic literature review

Background

The high mortality rates in the European Union (EU) Member States that acceded in 2004 sparked political interest in mortality convergence. Whether mortality is converging in the EU remains unclear. We reviewed the literature on mortality convergence in the post-2004 EU territory as a whole. We also explored whether the study designs influenced the results and whether any determinants of mortality convergence had been empirically examined.

Methods

A systematic literature review was performed. Our search included scientific databases and the websites of international governmental institutions and European demographic research institutes.

Results

We uncovered 94 unique records and included seven studies that reported on 36 analyses. There was marked methodological heterogeneity, including in the convergence measures (beta and sigma convergence). All of the beta convergence analyses found narrowing mortality differentials, whereas most of the sigma convergence analyses found widening mortality differentials. The results are robust to the units of analysis and mortality and dispersion measures. Our results also suggest that there is a lack of evidence on the determinants of mortality convergence in the EU.

Conclusions

There is general agreement that the EU regions and the Member States with high initial mortality rates improved the fastest, but this trend did not lead to overall mortality convergence in the EU. The harmonization of mortality convergence measures and research into determinants of mortality convergence are needed to support future EU cohesion policy. Policy-makers should consider supporting areas that have moderate but stagnant mortality rates, in addition to those with high mortality rates.

Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20-84) and year-specific (1990-2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

Obesity Prevalence in the Long-Term Future in 18 European Countries and in the USA

INTRODUCTION

Obesity constitutes a major public health problem in Europe, but how the obesity epidemic in European countries will evolve remains unknown. Most previous obesity projections considered the short-term future only, focused on single non-European countries, and projected ongoing increases foremost. We comparatively project obesity prevalence into the long-term future for 18 European countries and the USA.

DATA

We used national age-specific (20-84 years) and sex-specific obesity prevalence estimates (1975-2016) from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) 2017 study, which are based on available measured height and weight data, supplemented with estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.

METHODS

We projected age- and sex-specific obesity prevalence up to the year 2100 by integrating the notion of a wave-shaped obesity epidemic into conventional age-period projections.

RESULTS

In 1990-2016, the increasing trends in obesity prevalence were decelerating. Obesity is expected to reach maximum levels between 2030 and 2052 among men, and between 2026 and 2054 among women. The maximum levels will likely be reached first in The Netherlands, USA, and UK, and last in Switzerland; and are expected to be highest in the USA and UK, and lowest in The Netherlands for men and Denmark for women. In 2060, obesity prevalence is expected to be lowest among Dutch men and highest among Swiss men. The projected age-specific obesity prevalence levels have an inverse U-shape, peaking at around the age of 60-69 years.

DISCUSSION

Applying our novel approach to the NCD-RisC 2017 data, obesity prevalence is expected to reach maximum levels between 2026 and 2054, with the USA and UK reaching the highest maximum levels first, followed by other European countries.

Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century

OBJECTIVE

To estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension.

METHODS

We estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950-2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend.

RESULTS

SAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)-41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%-15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%-9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)-28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%-20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%-7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends.

CONCLUSION

Our novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.

Alcohol and educational inequalities: Hazardous drinking prevalence and all-cause mortality by hazardous drinking group in people aged 50 and older in Europe

Background: We examined educational inequalities in hazardous drinking prevalence among individuals aged 50 or more in 14 European countries, and explored educational inequalities in mortality in hazardous drinkers in European regions. Methods: We analyzed data from waves 4, 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We estimated age-standardized hazardous drinking prevalence, and prevalence ratios (PR) of hazardous drinking by country and educational level using Poisson regression models with robust variance. We estimated the relative index of inequality (RII) for all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers and non-hazardous drinkers using Cox proportional hazards regression models and for each region (North, South, East and West). Results: In men, educational inequalities in hazardous drinking were not observed (PR_medium = 1.09 [95%CI: 0.98-1.21] and PR_high = 0.99 [95%CI: 0.88-1.10], ref. low), while in they were observed in women, having the highest hazardous drinking prevalence in the highest educational levels (PR_medium = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.15-1.42] and PR_high = 1.53 [95%CI: 1.36-1.72]). Overall, the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers was 1.12 [95%CI: 1.03-1.22] among men and 1.10 [95%CI: 0.97-1.25] among women. Educational inequalities among hazardous drinkers were observed in Eastern Europe for both men (RII_hazardous = 1.21 [95%CI: 1.01-1.45]) and women (RII_hazardous = 1.46 [95%CI: 1.13-1.87]). Educational inequalities in mortality among non-hazardous drinkers were observed in Southern, Western and Eastern Europe among men, and in Eastern Europe among women. Conclusions: Higher educational attainment is positively associated with hazardous drinking prevalence among women, but not among men in most of the analyzed European countries. Clear educational inequalities in mortality among hazardous drinkers were only observed in Eastern Europe. Further research on the associations between alcohol use and inequalities in all-cause mortality in different regions is needed.

Similarities and Differences Between Sexes and Countries in the Mortality Imprint of the Smoking Epidemic in 34 Low-Mortality Countries, 1950-2014

INTRODUCTION

The smoking epidemic greatly affected mortality levels and trends, especially among men in low-mortality countries. The objective of this article was to examine similarities and differences between sexes and low-mortality countries in the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic. This will provide important additions to the smoking epidemic model, but also improve our understanding of the differential impact of the smoking epidemic, and provide insights into its future impact.

METHODS

Using lung-cancer mortality data for 30 European and four North American or Australasian countries, smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) by sex, age (35-99), and year (1950-2014) were indirectly estimated. The timing and level of the peak in SAMF35-99, estimated using weighting and smoothing, were compared.

RESULTS

Among men in all countries except Bulgaria, a clear wave pattern was observed, with SAMF35-99 peaking, on average, at 33.4% in 1986. Eastern European men experienced the highest (40%) and Swedish men the lowest (16%) peak. Among women, SAMF35-99 peaked, on average, at 18.1% in 2007 in the North American/Australasian countries and five Northwestern European countries, and increased, on average, to 7.5% in 2014 in the remaining countries (4% in Southern and Eastern Europe). The average sex difference in the peak is at least 25.6 years in its timing and at most 22.9 percentage points in its level.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the progression of smoking-attributable mortality in low-mortality countries was similar, there are important unexpected sex and country differences in the maximum mortality impact of the smoking epidemic driven by cross-country differences in economic, political, and emancipatory progress.

IMPLICATIONS

The formal, systematic, and comprehensive analysis of similarities and differences between sexes and 34 low-mortality countries in long-term time trends (1950-2014) in smoking-attributable mortality provided important additions to the Global Burden of Disease study and the descriptive smoking epidemic model (Lopez et al.). Despite a general increase followed by a decline, the timing of the maximum mortality impact differs more between sexes than previously anticipated, but less between regions. The maximum mortality impact among men differs considerably between countries. The observed substantial diversity warrants country-specific tobacco control interventions and increased attention to the current or expected higher smoking-attributable mortality shares among women compared to men.

Effects of a deep-sea mining experiment on seafloor microbial communities and functions after 26 years

Future supplies of rare minerals for global industries with high-tech products may depend on deep-sea mining. However, environmental standards for seafloor integrity and recovery from environmental impacts are missing. We revisited the only midsize deep-sea disturbance and recolonization experiment carried out in 1989 in the Peru Basin nodule field to compare habitat integrity, remineralization rates, and carbon flow with undisturbed sites. Plough tracks were still visible, indicating sites where sediment was either removed or compacted. Locally, microbial activity was reduced up to fourfold in the affected areas. Microbial cell numbers were reduced by ~50% in fresh "tracks" and by <30% in the old tracks. Growth estimates suggest that microbially mediated biogeochemical functions need over 50 years to return to undisturbed levels. This study contributes to developing environmental standards for deep-sea mining while addressing limits to maintaining and recovering ecological integrity during large-scale nodule mining.

Changing contribution of smoking to the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe, 1950-2014

This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950–2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990–1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

Progression of the smoking epidemic in high-income regions and its effects on male-female survival differences: a cohort-by-age analysis of 17 countries

BACKGROUND

Of all lifestyle behaviours, smoking caused the most deaths in the last century. Because of the time lag between the act of smoking and dying from smoking, and because males generally take up smoking before females do, male and female smoking epidemiology often follows a typical double wave pattern dubbed the 'smoking epidemic'. How are male and female deaths from this epidemic differentially progressing in high-income regions on a cohort-by-age basis? How have they affected male-female survival differences?

METHODS

We used data for the period 1950-2015 from the WHO Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database on three geographic regions that have progressed most into the smoking epidemic: high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. We examined changes in smoking-attributable mortality fractions as estimated by the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method by age (ages 50-85) across birth cohorts 1870-1965. We used these to trace sex differences with and without smoking-attributable mortality in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85.

RESULTS

In all three high-income regions, smoking explained up to 50% of sex differences in period life expectancy between ages 50 and 85 over the study period. These sex differences have declined since at least 1980, driven by smoking-attributable mortality, which tended to decline in males and increase in females overall. Thus, there was a convergence between sexes across recent cohorts. While smoking-attributable mortality was still increasing for older female cohorts, it was declining for females in the more recent cohorts in the US and Europe, as well as for males in all three regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The smoking epidemic contributed substantially to the male-female survival gap and to the recent narrowing of that gap in high-income North America, high-income Europe and high-income Oceania. The precipitous decline in smoking-attributable mortality in recent cohorts bodes somewhat hopeful. Yet, smoking-attributable mortality remains high, and therefore cause for concern.

[Effectiveness of anti-stigma interventions regarding severe mental illness: a systematic literature review]

Stigma is one of the greatest challenges facing people with severe mental illness (smi) and can have profound psychological, social and professional consequences.<br/> AIM: To systematically review the evidence of effectiveness of anti-stigma interventions (anti-stigma campaigns and specific interventions to reduce public stigma and self-stigma) for people with smi and to make recommendations for clinical practice.<br/> METHOD: A systematic literature search for individual studies and reviews concerning the efficacy of interventions that reduce stigma for people with smi.<br/> RESULTS: Anti-stigma interventions have small-to-medium effects. Although head-to-head comparisons do not show a clear advantage for educational or contact interventions, results suggest that the elements of contact, recovery and continuity (for public stigma) and psycho-education (for self-stigma) may yield the greatest effects. Due to the short follow-up period of most studies, there is limited evidence on the long-term effectiveness of these interventions. More specifically, it remains unknown whether these interventions lead to changes in actual behavior.<br/> CONCLUSION: Anti-stigma interventions have limited effects on knowledge, attitudes and behavior. Several methodological shortcomings, as well as short follow-up periods in most studies, preclude making firm conclusions.

Effects of changes in living environment on physical health: a prospective German cohort study of non-movers

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies on associations between changes in living environment and health are few and focus on movers. Next to causal effects, differences in health can, however, result due to residential mobility. The present study explored changes in living environment related to (changes in) physical health among non-movers. Causality was reinforced by a novel study design.

METHODS

We obtained longitudinal data on both living environment and physical health covering 4601 non-movers aged 18+ with 16 076 health observations from the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1999 and 2014. Changing and stable perceived living environment from three domains (infrastructure, environmental pollution, housing conditions) were included at household level. We performed linear regressions with robust standard errors and generalized estimating equations to predict the physical component summary (PCS) at baseline and changes in PCS over time.

RESULTS

Stable moderate and worst as well as worsened environmental pollution and infrastructure were associated with worse PCS at baseline, as were stable poor and worsened housing conditions. Stable worst infrastructure was associated with negative changes in PCS for both sexes. Men's changes in PCS were more affected by worsened environmental pollution than women's.

CONCLUSION

A suboptimal living environment has short- and long-term negative effects on physical health. Because even short-term changes in the living environment have an immediate influence on an individual's health status and health trajectories, public attention to living environment is essential to fight existing health inequalities.

Impact of obesity on life expectancy among different European countries: secondary analysis of population-level data over the 1975-2012 period

OBJECTIVE

This study assesses the impact of obesity on life expectancy for 26 European national populations and the USA over the 1975-2012 period.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of population-level obesity and mortality data.

SETTING

European countries, namely Austria, Belarus, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and the UK; and the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

National populations aged 18-100 years, by sex.

MEASUREMENTS

Using data by age and sex, we calculated obesity-attributable mortality by multiplying all-cause mortality (Human Mortality Database) with obesity-attributable mortality fractions (OAMFs). OAMFs were obtained by applying the weighted sum method to obesity prevalence data (non-communicable diseases (NCD) Risk Factor Collaboration) and European relative risks (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO- HIA)). We estimated potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) at birth by eliminating obesity-attributable mortality from all-cause mortality using associated single-decrement life tables.

RESULTS

In the 26 European countries in 2012, PGLE due to obesity ranged from 0.86 to 1.67 years among men, and from 0.66 to 1.54 years among women. In all countries, PGLE increased over time, with an average annual increase of 2.68% among men and 1.33% among women. Among women in Denmark, Switzerland, and Central and Eastern European countries, the increase in PGLE levelled off after 1995. Without obesity, the average increase in life expectancy between 1975 and 2012 would have been 0.78 years higher among men and 0.30 years higher among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity was proven to have an impact on both life expectancy levels and trends in Europe. The differences found in this impact between countries and the sexes can be linked to contextual factors, as well as to differences in people's ability and capacity to adopt healthier lifestyles.

Alcohol and gender gaps in life expectancy in eight Central and Eastern European countries

Background

Gender differences in life expectancy (LE) have been traditionally large in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and alcohol has been hypothesized to be one of its main determinants. We examined the role of alcohol in gender differences in LE in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine, and changes in this role from 1965 until 2012.

Methods

We decomposed the gender differences in LE at birth into alcohol- and non-alcohol-related mortality. We examined causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol over the whole period, and estimated from 1990 onwards additional alcohol-attributable mortality by using alcohol-attributable fractions from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results

In the eight CEE countries, women's advantage in LE relative to men increased from 7.3 years on average in 1965 to 10.0 years on average in 2012. All alcohol-attributable mortality contributed 1.9 years on average (uncertainty intervals (UI): 1.2-2.5; 18.8%) to the gender differences from 1990 to 2012. Its relative contribution increased in most countries until around 2005, and declined thereafter, resulting in a contribution of at least 15% in 2012. The absolute contribution of alcohol to the LE gender gap was strongly correlated with the overall LE gender differences (Pearson's r > 0.75), except in Poland and Estonia.

Conclusions

Despite recent declines, the contribution of sex differences in excessive alcohol consumption to the LE gender gap is substantial, and should not be neglected. Tackling gender differences in alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable mortality would contribute to further progress in reducing mortality.

Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure

Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old-age threshold was lower than 65 years in 2012 in Central Asia, Southern Asia, Southeastern Asia, and many Eastern European countries. These populations also experienced a higher share of elderly compared with the RLE15 method. Our method revealed more geographical diversity in the shares of elderly. Both methods exhibited similar time trends for the old-age thresholds and the shares of elderly. Discussion: Our prospective and comparative measure reveals higher population aging estimates in most Asian and Eastern European countries and more diversity in aging.

[Healthy life expectancy of older migrants and non-migrants in three European countries over time]

We analysed differences in healthy life expectancy at age 50 (HLE₅₀) between migrants and non-migrants in Belgium, the Netherlands, and England and Wales, and their trends over time between 2001 and 2011 in the latter two countries. Population, mortality and health data were derived from registers, census or surveys. HLE₅₀ was calculated for non-migrants, western and non-western migrants by sex. We applied decomposition techniques to determine whether differences in HLE₅₀ between origin groups and changes in HLE₅₀ over time were attributable to either differences in mortality or health. The results show that in all three countries and among both sexes, older migrants, in particular those from non-western origin, could expect to live fewer years in good health than older non-migrants, mainly because of differences in self-rated health. Differences in HLE₅₀ between migrants and non-migrants diminished over time in the Netherlands, but they increased in England and Wales. Improvements in HLE₅₀ over time were mainly attributable to mortality decline. Interventions aimed at reducing the health and mortality inequalities between older migrants and non-migrants should focus on prevention, and target especially non-western migrants.

Impact of Different Estimation Methods on Obesity-Attributable Mortality Levels and Trends: The Case of The Netherlands

The available methodologies to estimate the obesity-attributable mortality fraction (OAMF) affect the levels found and hamper the construction of time series. Our aim was to assess the impact of using different techniques to estimate the levels and the trends in obesity-attributable mortality for The Netherlands between 1981 to 2013. Using Body Mass Index (BMI), all-cause and cause-specific mortality data, and worldwide and European relative risks (RRs), we estimated OAMFs using three all-cause approaches (partially adjusted, weighted sum, and the two combined) and one cause-of-death approach (Comparative Risk Assessment; CRA). We adjusted the CRA approach to purely capture obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²). The different approaches led to a range of estimates. The weighted sum method using worldwide RRs generated the lowest (0.9%) while the adjusted CRA approach using 2013 RRs generated the highest estimate (1.5%). Using European-specific RRs instead of worldwide RRs resulted in higher estimates. Most of the approaches revealed an increasing OAMF over the period 1981 to 2013 especially from 1993 onwards except for the adjusted CRA approach among women. Estimates of OAMF levels and trends differed depending on the method applied. Given the limited available data, we recommend using the weighted-sum method to compare obesity-attributable mortality across European countries over time.

Comparing strategies for matching mortality forecasts to the most recently observed data: exploring the trade-off between accuracy and robustness

Background

Given the increased link between retirement age and payments to the development in life expectancy, a precise and regular forecast of life expectancy is of utmost importance. The choice of the jump-off rates, i.e. the rates in the last year of the fitting period, is essential for matching mortality forecasts to the most recently observed data. A general approach to the choice of the jump-off rates is currently lacking.

Objective

We evaluate six different options for the jump-off rates and examine their effects on the robustness and accuracy of the mortality forecast.

Data and methods

Death and exposure numbers by age for eight European countries over the years 1960–2014 were obtained from the Human Mortality Database. We examined the use of model values as jump-off rates versus observed values in the last year or averaged over the last couple of years. The future life expectancy at age 65 is calculated for different fitting periods and jump-off rates using the Lee-Carter model and examined on accuracy (mean absolute forecast error) and robustness (standard deviation of the change in projected e65).

Results

The choice for the jump-off rates clearly influences the accuracy and robustness of the mortality forecast, albeit in different ways. For most countries using the last observed values as jump-off rates resulted in the most accurate method, which relates to the relatively high estimation error of the model in recent years. The most robust method is obtained by using an average of observed years as jump-off rates. The more years that are averaged, the better the robustness, but accuracy decreases with more years averaged.

Conclusion

Carefully considering the best choice for the jump-off rates is essential when forecasting mortality. The best strategy for matching mortality forecasts to the most recently observed data depends on the goal of the forecast, the country-specific past mortality trends observed, and the model fit.

Past trends in obesity-attributable mortality in eight European countries: an application of age-period-cohort analysis

Objectives

To assess age, period, and birth cohort effects and patterns of obesity-attributable mortality in Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and the UK (UK).

Methods

We obtained obesity prevalence and all-cause mortality data by age (20–79), sex and country for 1990–2012. We applied Clayton and Schifflers’ age–period–cohort approach to obesity-attributable mortality rates (OAMRs).

Results

Between 1990 and 2012, obesity prevalence increased and age-standardised OAMRs declined, although not uniformly. The nonlinear birth cohort effects contributed significantly (p < 0.01) to obesity-attributable mortality trends in all populations, except in Czech Republic, Finland, and among German women, and Polish men. Their contribution was greater than 25% in UK and among French women, and larger than that of the nonlinear period effects. In the UK, mortality rate ratios (MRRs) increased among the cohorts born after 1950. In other populations with significant birth cohort effects, MRRs increased among the 1935–1960 cohorts and decreased thereafter.

Conclusions

Given its potential effects on obesity-attributable mortality, the cohort dimension should not be ignored and calls for interventions early in life next to actions targeting broader societal changes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00038-018-1126-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Differences in the health transition patterns of migrants and non-migrants aged 50 and older in southern and western Europe (2004-2015)

BACKGROUND

Most previous research on migrant health in Europe has taken a cross-sectional perspective, without a specific focus on the older population. Having knowledge about inequalities in health transitions over the life course between migrants and non-migrants, including at older ages, is crucial for the tailoring of policies to the demands of an ageing and culturally diverse society. We analyse differences in health transitions between migrants and non-migrants, specifically focusing on the older population in Europe.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data on migrants and non-migrants aged 50 and older in 10 southern and western European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004-2015). We applied multinomial logistic regression models of experiencing health deterioration among individuals in good health at baseline, and of experiencing health improvement among individuals in poor health at baseline, separately by sex, in which migrant status (non-migrant, western migrant, non-western migrant) was the main explanatory variable. We considered three dimensions of health, namely self-rated health, depression and diabetes.

RESULTS

At older ages, migrants in Europe were at higher risk than non-migrants of experiencing a deterioration in health relative to remaining in a given state of self-rated health. Western migrants had a higher risk than non-migrants of becoming depressed, while non-western migrants had a higher risk of acquiring diabetes. Among females only, migrants also tended to be at lower risk than non-migrants of experiencing an improvement in both overall and mental health. Differences in the health transition patterns of older migrants and non-migrants remained robust to the inclusion of several covariates, including education, job status and health-related behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that, in addition to having a health disadvantage at baseline, older migrants in Europe were more likely than older non-migrants to have experienced a deterioration in health over the study period. These results raise concerns about whether migrants in Europe are as likely as non-migrants to age in good health. We recommend that policies aiming to promote healthy ageing specifically address the health needs of the migrant population, thereby distinguishing migrants from different backgrounds.

Comparison of different approaches for estimating age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality: The cases of France and Finland

Background

Accurate estimates of the impact of alcohol on overall and age-specific mortality are crucial for formulating health policies. However, different approaches to estimating alcohol-attributable mortality provide different results, and a detailed comparison of age-specific estimates is missing.

Methods

Using data on cause of death, alcohol consumption, and relative risks of mortality at different consumption levels, we compare eight estimates of sex- and age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France (2010) and Finland (2013): five estimates using cause-of-death approaches (with one accounting for contributory causes), and three estimates using attributable fraction (AF) approaches.

Results

AF-related approaches and the approach based on alcohol-related underlying and contributory causes of death provided estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality that were twice as high as the estimates found using underlying cause-of-death approaches in both countries and sexes. The differences across the methods were greatest among older age groups An inverse U-shape in age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality (peaking at around age 65) was observed for cause-of-death approaches, with this shape being more pronounced in Finland. AF-related approaches resulted in different estimates at older ages: i.e., mortality was found to increase with age in France; whereas in Finland mortality estimates depended on the underlying assumptions regarding the effects of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions

While the most detailed approaches (i.e., the AF-related approach and the approach that includes underlying and contributory causes) are theoretically able to provide more accurate estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality, they–especially the AF approaches- depend heavily on data availability and quality. To enhance the reliability of alcohol-attributable mortality estimates, data quality for older age groups needs to be improved.

Relative contribution of various chronic diseases and multi-morbidity to potential disability among Dutch elderly

Background

The amount of time spent living with disease greatly influences elderly people’s wellbeing, disability and healthcare costs, but differs by disease, age and sex.

Methods

We assessed how various single and combined diseases differentially affect life years spent living with disease in Dutch elderly men and women (65+) over their remaining life course. Multistate life table calculations were applied to age and sex-specific disease prevalence, incidence and death rates for the Netherlands in 2007. We distinguished congestive heart failure, coronary heart disease (CHD), breast and prostate cancer, colon cancer, lung cancer, diabetes, COPD, stroke, dementia and osteoarthritis.

Results

Across ages 65, 70, 75, 80 and 85, CHD caused the most time spent living with disease for Dutch men (from 7.6 years at age 65 to 3.7 years at age 85) and osteoarthritis for Dutch women (from 11.7 years at age 65 to 4.8 years at age 85). Of the various co-occurrences of disease, the combination of diabetes and osteoarthritis led to the most time spent living with disease, for both men (from 11.2 years at age 65 to 4.9 -years at age 85) and women (from 14.2 years at age 65 to 6.0 years at age 85).

Conclusions

Specific single and multi-morbid diseases affect men and women differently at different phases in the life course in terms of the time spent living with disease, and consequently, their potential disability. Timely sex and age-specific interventions targeting prevention of the single and combined diseases identified could reduce healthcare costs and increase wellbeing in elderly people.

The contribution of alcohol to the East-West life expectancy gap in Europe from 1990 onward

BACKGROUND

Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have lower life expectancies and higher alcohol-attributable mortality than Western European countries. We examine the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality across Europe, and specifically to the East-West life expectancy gap from 1990 onward.

METHODS

We retrieved alcohol-attributable mortality rates (GBD Study 2013) and all-cause mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) by age and sex for nine CEE countries and for the EU-15 countries. We assessed country-specific potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by eliminating alcohol-attributable mortality using associated single decrement life tables. We decomposed the life expectancy differences between each CEE country and the EU-15 population-weighted average for 1990-2012/13 into alcohol-attributable and non-alcohol-attributable mortality.

RESULTS

In 2012/13, the PGLE for men and women were, respectively, 2.15 and 1.00 years in the CEE region and 0.90 and 0.44 years in the EU-15 region. The contribution of alcohol to the East-West gap in life expectancy was largest among men in Russia {2.88 years [uncertainty interval (UI): 1.57-4.06]}, Belarus [3.70 years (UI: 1.75-5.45)] and Ukraine [2.47 years (UI: 0.90-3.88)]. The relative contributions increased in most of the countries between 1990 and 2005 (on average, from 17.0% to 25.4% for men, and from 14.7% to 22.5% for women), and declined thereafter (20.2% for men and 20.5% for women in 2012/13).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol contributed substantially to the East-West life expectancy gap in Europe, and to its increase (1990-2005) and decline (2005 onward). Diminishing alcohol consumption in CEE countries to Western European levels can contribute to mortality convergence across Europe.

An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models

Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl’s front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort, and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct. Through a simulation study mimicking APC data on cardiovascular mortality, we demonstrate possible pitfalls that users of the mechanism-based approach may encounter under realistic conditions: namely, when (1) the set of available intermediate variables is incomplete, (2) intermediate variables are affected by two or more of the APC variables (while this feature is not acknowledged in the analysis), and (3) unaccounted confounding is present between intermediate variables and the outcome. Furthermore, we show how the mechanism-based approach can be extended beyond the originally proposed linear and probit regression models to incorporate all generalized linear models, as well as nonlinearities in the predictors, using Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the observed biases resulting from departures from underlying assumptions, we formulate guidelines for the application of the mechanism-based approach (extended or not).

Smoking cessation among European older adults: the contributions of marital and employment transitions by gender

Knowledge about the potential effects of stressful events on smoking cessation is helpful for the design of health interventions. Previous studies on this topic tended to group together adults of all ages and of both genders. We investigate the contribution of marital and employment losses on smoking cessation by gender, specifically among older adults in Europe. We used panel data from waves 4 (2011) and 5 (2013) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe for 3345 male and 3115 female smokers at baseline aged 50 and over from 13 countries. The associations between marital and employment losses and smoking cessation were derived from logistic regression models for each gender, controlling for age, educational attainment, diseases incidence and country of residence. Interactions between gender and marital and employment losses were tested. Over the analysed period, 119 smokers became widowed or divorced (1.8 %), 318 became retired (4.9 %) and 100 became unemployed (1.5 %). Becoming widowed or divorced was associated with lower probability of smoking cessation among both men (OR 0.36, 95 % CI 0.14-0.94) and women (OR 0.46, 95 % CI 0.21-0.99). Transitions to unemployment and to retirement were not significantly associated with smoking cessation (OR 0.62, 95 % CI 0.25-1.49; and OR 0.68, 95 % CI 0.43-1.07, respectively). Gender differences in the association between marital and employment losses and smoking cessation were not statistically significant (p value > 0.05 for all interactions). Health interventions should take into account that male and female older adults affected by marital loss are at risk of continuing smoking.