Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010

Changes in experienced value of everyday occupations after nature-based vocational rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe and assess changes in participants' experiences of everyday occupations after nature-based vocational rehabilitation (NBVR), to assess changes regarding symptoms of severe stress and the rate of return to work and possible association with experiencing the occupational value of everyday occupations.

METHODS

The NBVR was carried out by a transdisciplinary rehabilitation team and took place in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. The study had a longitudinal and mixed-method approach. Data concerning experiences of everyday occupations (Oval-pd), self-assessed occupational competence (OSA-F), health status (EQ-VAS, SCI-93), and sense of coherence (SOC-13) were collected before and after the intervention, and a one-year follow-up was carried out regarding returning to work. Semi-structured interviews were performed 12 weeks after the intervention.

RESULTS

Significant changes were measured regarding perceived occupational values in daily life, symptoms of severe stress, and returning to work. Both the return to work rate and symptoms of severe stress were significantly associated with changed experience of everyday occupation.

CONCLUSIONS

In the interviews, participants explained that they now had a slower pace of everyday life and that everyday occupations were more often related to nature and creativity. This could be interpreted as nature-based rehabilitation inducing changes through meaningful occupations in restorative environments, leading to a positive change in perceived values of everyday occupations.

Does the aging process significantly modify the Mean Heart Rate?

Background

The Mean Heart Rate (MHR) tends to decrease with age. When adjusted for gender and diseases, the magnitude of this effect is unclear.

Objective

To analyze the MHR in a stratified sample of active and functionally independent individuals.

Methods

A total of 1,172 patients aged ≥ 40 years underwent Holter monitoring and were stratified by age group: 1 = 40-49, 2 = 50-59, 3 = 60-69, 4 = 70-79, 5 = ≥ 80 years. The MHR was evaluated according to age and gender, adjusted for Hypertension (SAH), dyslipidemia and non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Several models of ANOVA, correlation and linear regression were employed. A two-tailed p value <0.05 was considered significant (95% CI).

Results

The MHR tended to decrease with the age range: 1 = 77.20 ± 7.10; 2 = 76.66 ± 7.07; 3 = 74.02 ± 7.46; 4 = 72.93 ± 7.35; 5 = 73.41 ± 7.98 (p < 0.001). Women showed a correlation with higher MHR (p <0.001). In the ANOVA and regression models, age and gender were predictors (p < 0.001). However, R² and ETA² < 0.10, as well as discrete standardized beta coefficients indicated reduced effect. Dyslipidemia, hypertension and DM did not influence the findings.

Conclusion

The MHR decreased with age. Women had higher values of MHR, regardless of the age group. Correlations between MHR and age or gender, albeit significant, showed the effect magnitude had little statistical relevance. The prevalence of SAH, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus did not influence the results.

The burden of HIV: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the global and country-level burden of HIV/AIDS relative to 291 other causes of disease burden from 1980 to 2010 using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) as the vehicle for exploration.

METHODS

HIV/AIDS burden estimates were derived elsewhere as a part of GBD 2010, a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of 291 diseases and injuries from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries. In GBD 2010, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are used as the measurement of disease burden. DALY estimates for HIV/AIDS come from UNAIDS' 2012 prevalence and mortality estimates, GBD 2010 disability weights and mortality estimates derived from quality vital registration data.

RESULTS

Despite recent declines in global HIV/AIDS mortality, HIV/AIDS was still the fifth leading cause of global DALYs in 2010. The distribution of HIV/AIDS burden is not equal across demographics and regions. In 2010, HIV/AIDS was ranked as the leading DALY cause for ages 30-44 years in both sexes and for 21 countries that fall into four distinctive blocks: Eastern and Southern Africa, Central Africa, the Caribbean and Thailand. Although a majority of the DALYs caused by HIV/AIDS are in high-burden countries, 20% of the global HIV/AIDS burden in 2010 was in countries where HIV/AIDS did not make the top 10 leading causes of burden.

CONCLUSION

In the midst of a global economic recession, tracking the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its importance relative to other diseases and injuries is critical to effectively allocating limited resources and maintaining funding for effective HIV/AIDS interventions and treatments.

Healthy life expectancy changes in Thailand, 2002-2007

We investigate links between increasing longevity and health status in Thailand. Using data from 2002 and 2007 national surveys of the elderly, healthy life expectancies at older ages were estimated. Change depended on health indicator, gender and age. Self-reported health and self-care disability showed expansion of morbidity. Mobility disability change indicated compression but a wording change means this may be an artefact. We compare these findings with the 1990 and 2010 results of the Global Burden of Disease study. Using HLE based on disease prevalence, the GBD found that Thailand experienced small longevity gains and morbidity compression. Our findings suggest these results should be treated with caution, as, since 2000, Thailand has introduced universal health care.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors

IMPORTANCE

Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy.

OBJECTIVES

To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

DESIGN

We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages.

RESULTS

US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder: application for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010).

METHOD

Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data.

RESULTS

There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2-4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1-4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0-6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0-3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks.

CONCLUSION

We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Health Impacts of Caregiving for Older Adults With Functional Limitations

Objectives: To estimate the health impact, in terms of depression, self-rated health, and health services utilization, of providing care to older adults (75+) requiring human assistance in at least one activity of daily living (ADL) limitation. Method: Data from 1,077 caregivers and 318 noncaregivers, interviewed in the Singapore Survey on Informal Caregiving, was used to examine differences in depressive symptoms, self-rated health, and number of outpatient visits in the last 1 month between caregivers and noncaregivers. Multivariate models for the outcomes, adjusting for characteristics of the caregiver/noncaregiver and care-recipient/potential care recipient, were run. Results: Caregivers were more depressed, had poorer self-rated health, and had a higher rate of outpatient visits in the past month compared to noncaregivers. Discussion: The study indicates the need for support services to family caregivers of older adults with ADL limitations.

A prospective study on postoperative pain after cataract surgery

Purpose

To evaluate postoperative pain and early recovery in cataract patients.

Patients and methods

A total of 201 patients who underwent elective first eye cataract extraction surgery were enrolled, and 196 were included in the final analysis. The study design was a single-center, prospective, follow-up study in a tertiary hospital in eastern Finland. Postoperative pain was evaluated with the Brief Pain Inventory at four time points: at baseline, and at 24 hours, 1 week, and 6 weeks postsurgery.

Results

Postoperative pain was relatively common during the first hours after surgery, as it was reported by 67 (34%) patients. After hospital discharge, the prevalence decreased; at 24 hours, 1 week, and 6 weeks, 18 (10%), 15 (9%) and 12 (7%) patients reported having ocular pain, respectively. Most patients with eye pain reported significant pain, with a score of ≥4 on a pain scale of 0–10, but few had taken analgesics for eye pain. Those who had used analgesics rated the analgesic efficacy of paracetamol and ibuprofen as good or excellent. Other ocular irritation symptoms were common after surgery; as a new postoperative symptom, foreign-body sensation was reported by 40 patients (22%), light sensitivity by 29 (16%), burning by 15 (8%), and itching by 15 (8%).

Conclusion

Moderate or severe postoperative pain was relatively common after cataract surgery. Thus, all patients undergoing cataract surgery should be provided appropriate counseling on pain and pain management after surgery.

Universal health coverage in Turkey: enhancement of equity

Turkey has successfully introduced health system changes and provided its citizens with the right to health to achieve universal health coverage, which helped to address inequities in financing, health service access, and health outcomes. We trace the trajectory of health system reforms in Turkey, with a particular emphasis on 2003-13, which coincides with the Health Transformation Program (HTP). The HTP rapidly expanded health insurance coverage and access to health-care services for all citizens, especially the poorest population groups, to achieve universal health coverage. We analyse the contextual drivers that shaped the transformations in the health system, explore the design and implementation of the HTP, identify the factors that enabled its success, and investigate its effects. Our findings suggest that the HTP was instrumental in achieving universal health coverage to enhance equity substantially, and led to quantifiable and beneficial effects on all health system goals, with an improved level and distribution of health, greater fairness in financing with better financial protection, and notably increased user satisfaction. After the HTP, five health insurance schemes were consolidated to create a unified General Health Insurance scheme with harmonised and expanded benefits. Insurance coverage for the poorest population groups in Turkey increased from 2·4 million people in 2003, to 10·2 million in 2011. Health service access increased across the country-in particular, access and use of key maternal and child health services improved to help to greatly reduce the maternal mortality ratio, and under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Several factors helped to achieve universal health coverage and improve outcomes. These factors include economic growth, political stability, a comprehensive transformation strategy led by a transformation team, rapid policy translation, flexible implementation with continuous learning, and simultaneous improvements in the health system, on both the demand side (increased health insurance coverage, expanded benefits, and reduced cost-sharing) and the supply side (expansion of infrastructure, health human resources, and health services).

What is health?

Classical medical research is disease focused and still defines health as absence of disease. Languages, however, associate a positive concept of wholeness with health as does the WHO health definition. Newer medical health definitions emphasize the capacity to adapt to changing external and internal circumstances. The results of the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study provides keys for a quantifiable health metrics by developing statistical tools calculating healthy life expectancy. Of central social and economic importance is the question whether healthy ageing can be achieved. This concept hinges on theories on the biological basis of lifespan determination and whether negligible senescence and the compression of morbidity can be achieved in human societies. Since the health impact of the human gut microbiome is currently a topical research area, microbiologists should be aware of the problems in defining health.

How did we arrive at burden of disease estimates for mental and illicit drug use disorders in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The Global Burden of Disease study 2010 (GBD 2010) estimated regional and global burden of 291 diseases and 67 risk factors. Here, we provide an overview of the methodological approach taken to this work, as well as the challenges and limitations encountered in deriving the burden of mental and drug use disorders.

RECENT FINDINGS

GBD 2010 estimated the burden of 11 mental disorders and four drug use disorders for 21 regions. This involved a systematic literature search for epidemiological data; setting lay case definitions; synthesizing available epidemiological data into an internally consistent disease model; and quantifying the associated disability and health outcomes, to derive region, sex, year and age-specific burden estimates. Notable challenges included the difficulty in deriving culturally comparable case definitions for mental and drug use disorders, the paucity of epidemiological data and the difficulty in capturing disability associated with mental and drug use disorders.

SUMMARY

GBD 2010 findings demonstrated the major public health importance of mental and drug use disorders. The methodology used to estimate burden was more sophisticated than previous GBD studies, with some restrictions required in order to achieve defensible numerical measures of burden for mental and drug use disorders.

Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations.

METHODS

We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5-1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948,700 deaths, 774,500-1,024,600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934,000 deaths, 846,600-1,032,300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2-32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9-43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010.

INTERPRETATION

The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for China's health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessment of candidate ocular biomarkers of ageing in a South African adult population: relationship with chronological age and systemic biomarkers

Certain anatomic and functional parameters of the eye change with increasing chronological age. They may, therefore, serve as potential biomarkers of ageing. We investigated associations between four such ocular parameters (lens density, retinal vessel calibre, corneal endothelial cells and retinal nerve fibre layer thickness) and two 'cellular' biomarkers of ageing (leukocyte telomere length and CDKN2A expression), with frailty (a clinical correlate of biological ageing) in a population of South African adults. All ocular parameters revealed an association with either telomere length or CDKN2A expression. However, lens density was most strongly correlated with age, increased CDKN2A expression, and with frailty (p=0.05 and 0.03, respectively). Narrow retinal arteriolar diameter, associated with increased chronological age, was also associated with increased CDK2NA expression (0.42 vs. 0.31, p=0.02) but not with frailty. Ocular parameters may aid in determining biological age, warranting investigation in longitudinal studies.

BDNF-based synaptic repair as a disease-modifying strategy for neurodegenerative diseases

Increasing evidence suggests that synaptic dysfunction is a key pathophysiological hallmark in neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer's disease. Understanding the role of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in synaptic plasticity and synaptogenesis, the impact of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism in Alzheimer's disease-relevant endophenotypes - including episodic memory and hippocampal volume - and the technological progress in measuring synaptic changes in humans all pave the way for a 'synaptic repair' therapy for neurodegenerative diseases that targets pathophysiology rather than pathogenesis. This article reviews the key issues in translating BDNF biology into synaptic repair therapies.

Assessing population aging and disability in sub-Saharan Africa: lessons from Malawi?

Andreas Stuck and colleagues discuss research by Collin Payne and colleagues on disability in older Malawi adults and next steps for research and policy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Drug design and discovery: translational biomedical science varies among countries

Drug design and discovery is an innovation process that translates the outcomes of fundamental biomedical research into therapeutics that are ultimately made available to people with medical disorders in many countries throughout the world. To identify which nations succeed, exceed, or fail at the drug design/discovery endeavor--more specifically, which countries, within the context of their national size and wealth, are "pulling their weight" when it comes to developing medications targeting the myriad of diseases that afflict humankind--we compiled and analyzed a comprehensive survey of all new drugs (small molecular entities and biologics) approved annually throughout the world over the 20-year period from 1991 to 2010. Based upon this analysis, we have devised prediction algorithms to ascertain which countries are successful (or not) in contributing to the worldwide need for effective new therapeutics.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010.

METHODS

We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures.

FINDINGS

For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010.

INTERPRETATION

The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A review on leadership of head nurses and patient safety and quality of care

PURPOSE

The purpose of the study was to explore in literature what different leadership styles and behaviors of head nurses have a positive influence on the outcomes of patient safety or quality of care.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

We reviewed the literature from January 2000 until September 2011. We searched Pubmed, Embase, Cinahl, Psychlit, and Econlit.

FINDINGS

We found 10 studies addressing the relationship between head nurse leadership and safety and quality. A wide array of styles and practices were associated with different patient outcomes. Transformational leadership was the most used concept in the studies. A trend can be observed over these studies suggesting that a trustful relationship between the head nurse and subordinates is an important driving force for the achievement of positive patient outcomes. Furthermore, the effects of these trustful relationships seem to be amplified by supporting mechanisms, often objective conditions like clinical pathways and, especially, staffing level.

VALUE/ORIGINALITY

This study offers an up-to-date review of the limited number of studies on the relationship between nurse leadership and patient outcomes. Although mostly transformational leadership was found to be responsible for positive associations with outcomes, also contingent reward had positive influence on outcomes. We formulated some comments on the predominance of the transformational leadership concept and suggested the application of complexity theory and political leadership for the current context of care. We formulated some implications for practice and further research, mainly the need for more systematic empirical and cross cultural studies and the urgent need for the development of a validated set of nurse-sensitive patient outcome indicators.

Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model

BACKGROUND

Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge) microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64%) of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5) with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46%) of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8) with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well-being.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals in this population experience a lengthy struggle with disabling conditions in adulthood, with high probabilities of remitting and relapsing between states of functional limitation. Given the strong association of disabilities with work efforts and subjective well-being, this research suggests that current national health policies and international donor-funded health programs in SSA inadequately target the physical health of mature and older adults.