Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

Electronic Medical Record-Based Case Phenotyping for the Charlson Conditions: Scoping Review

Background

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain large amounts of rich clinical information. Developing EMR-based case definitions, also known as EMR phenotyping, is an active area of research that has implications for epidemiology, clinical care, and health services research.

Objective

This review aims to describe and assess the present landscape of EMR-based case phenotyping for the Charlson conditions.

Methods

A scoping review of EMR-based algorithms for defining the Charlson comorbidity index conditions was completed. This study covered articles published between January 2000 and April 2020, both inclusive. Embase (Excerpta Medica database) and MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) were searched using keywords developed in the following 3 domains: terms related to EMR, terms related to case finding, and disease-specific terms. The manuscript follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

A total of 274 articles representing 299 algorithms were assessed and summarized. Most studies were undertaken in the United States (181/299, 60.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (42/299, 14.0%) and Canada (15/299, 5.0%). These algorithms were mostly developed either in primary care (103/299, 34.4%) or inpatient (168/299, 56.2%) settings. Diabetes, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and rheumatology had the highest number of developed algorithms. Data-driven and clinical rule–based approaches have been identified. EMR-based phenotype and algorithm development reflect the data access allowed by respective health systems, and algorithms vary in their performance.

Conclusions

Recognizing similarities and differences in health systems, data collection strategies, extraction, data release protocols, and existing clinical pathways is critical to algorithm development strategies. Several strategies to assist with phenotype-based case definitions have been proposed.

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

Patient Frailty Is Independently Associated With the Risk of Hospitalization for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

There is significant interest in identifying risk factors associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In transplant candidates, frailty predicts wait-list mortality and posttransplant outcomes. However, the impact of frailty on ACLF development and mortality is unknown. This was a retrospective study of US veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016. First hospitalizations were characterized as ACLF or non-ACLF admissions. Prehospitalization patient frailty was ascertained using a validated score based on administrative coding data. We used logistic regression to investigate the impact of an increasing frailty score on the odds of ACLF hospitalization and short-term ACLF mortality. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between frailty and longterm survival from hospitalization. We identified 16,561 cirrhosis hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 4.19 years (interquartile range, 2.47-6.34 years). In adjusted models, increasing frailty score was associated with significantly increased odds of ACLF hospitalization versus non-ACLF hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.03 per point; 95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001). By contrast, frailty score was not associated with ACLF 28- or 90-day mortality (P = 0.13 and P = 0.33, respectively). In an adjusted Cox analysis of all hospitalizations, increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer longterm survival from the time of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 5 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.004). Frailty increases the likelihood of ACLF hospitalization among patients with cirrhosis, but it does not impact short-term ACLF mortality. These findings have implications for clinicians caring for frail outpatients with cirrhosis, including tailored follow-up, risk mitigation strategies, and possible expedited transplant evaluation.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

Model for end-stage liver disease-sodium underestimates 90-day mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unclear whether the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score captures the clinical severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared observed 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF with expected mortality based on the calculated MELD-Na and examined the consequences of underestimating clinical severity.

METHODS

We identified patients with ACLF during hospitalization for cirrhosis in 127 VA hospitals between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2014. We examined MELD-Na scores by ACLF presence and grade. We used actual and observed 90-day mortality to estimate a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by ACLF presence and grade. We used transplant center-specific median MELD-Na at transplantation (MMaT) to estimate the proportion likely to receive priority for liver transplantation (LT) based on MELD-Na alone.

RESULTS

Of 71,894 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis, 18,979 (26.4%) patients met the criteria for ACLF on admission. The median (P25-P75) MELD-Na on admission was 26 (22-30) for ACLF compared to 15 (12-20) for patients without ACLF; it was 24 (21-27), 27 (23-31), and 32 (26-37) for ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively. At 90 days, 40.0% of patients with ACLF died (30.8%, 41.6% and 68.8% with ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively) compared to 21.3% of patients without ACLF. Compared to the expected death rate based on MELD-Na, mortality risk was higher for patients with ACLF, SMR (95% CI): 1.52 (1.48-1.52), 1.46 (1.41-1.51), 1.50 (1.44-1.55), 1.66 (1.58-1.74) for overall ACLF, ACLF-1, -2 and -3, respectively. Only 9.1% of patients with ACLF reached the national median MELD-Na of 35 and between 17.3% to 35.1% exceeded the MMaT at any center. During index admission, 589 (0.8%) patients with ACLF were considered for LT evaluation and 16 (0.1%) were listed for LT.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, MELD-Na did not capture 90-day mortality risk in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF are at a disadvantage in the current MELD-Na-based system.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of death. Liver transplantation may be the only curative treatment for these patients. A score called model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) helps guide donor liver allocation for transplantation in the United States. The higher the MELD-Na score in a patient, the more likely that a patient receives a liver transplant. Our study data showed that MELD-Na score underestimates the risk of dying at 90 days in patients with ACLF. Thus, physicians need to start liver transplant evaluation early instead of waiting for a high MELD-Na number.

The Use of Administrative Data to Investigate the Population Burden of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of cirrhosis with an increasing footprint in global public health. Although the condition is defined using a careful history and examination, we cannot accurately measure the true impact of HE relying on data collected exclusively from clinical studies. For this reason, administrative data sources are necessary to study the population burden of HE. Administrative data is generated with each health care encounter to account for health care resource utilization and is extracted into a dataset for the secondary purpose of research. In order to utilize such data for valid analysis, several pitfalls must be avoided—specifically, selecting the particular database capable of meeting the needs of the study’s aims, paying careful attention to the limits of each given database, and ensuring validity of case definition for HE specific to the dataset. In this review, we summarize the types of data available for and the results of administrative data studies of HE.

Development, Validation, and Evaluation of a Simple Machine Learning Model to Predict Cirrhosis Mortality

Importance

Machine-learning algorithms offer better predictive accuracy than traditional prognostic models but are too complex and opaque for clinical use.

Objective

To compare different machine learning methods in predicting overall mortality in cirrhosis and to use machine learning to select easily scored clinical variables for a novel cirrhosis prognostic model.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study used a retrospective cohort of adult patients with cirrhosis or its complications seen in 130 hospitals and affiliated ambulatory clinics in the integrated, national Veterans Affairs health care system from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2015. Patients were followed up through December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2017, to May 31, 2020.

Exposures

Potential predictors included demographic characteristics; liver disease etiology, severity, and complications; use of health care resources; comorbid conditions; and comprehensive laboratory and medication data. Patients were randomly selected for model development (66.7%) and validation (33.3%). Three different statistical and machine learning methods were evaluated: gradient descent boosting, logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization, and logistic regression with LASSO constrained to select no more than 10 predictors (partial pathway model). Predictor inclusion and model performance were evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation. Last, the predictors identified in the most parsimonious (the partial path) model were refit using maximum-likelihood estimation (Cirrhosis Mortality Model [CiMM]), and its predictive performance was compared with that of the widely used Model for End Stage Liver Disease with sodium (MELD-Na) score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality.

Results

Of the 107 939 patients with cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [9.6] years; 96.6% male; 66.3% white, 18.4% African American), the annual mortality rate ranged from 8.8% to 15.3%. In total, 32.7% of patients died within 3 years, and 46.2% died within 5 years after the index date. Models predicting 1-year mortality had good discrimination for the gradient descent boosting (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82), logistic regression with LASSO regularization (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.79), and the partial path logistic model (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78). All models showed good calibration. The final CiMM model with machine learning-derived clinical variables offered significantly better discrimination than the MELD-Na score, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) vs 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66-0.68) for 1-year mortality, respectively (DeLong z = 17.00; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, simple machine learning techniques performed as well as the more advanced ensemble gradient boosting. Using the clinical variables identified from simple machine learning in a cirrhosis mortality model produced a new score more transparent than machine learning and more predictive than the MELD-Na score.

Liver-related mortality is similar among men and women with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sex-based differences are known to significantly contribute to outcomes in patients with chronic liver diseases; however, the role of patient sex in cirrhosis is unclear. We aimed to study the relationship between patient sex and cirrhosis.

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of 20,045 patients with cirrhosis using a Chicago-wide electronic health record database that was linked with the United Network for Organ Sharing and cause of death data from the state death registry. Adjusted Cox survival analyses and competing risk analyses were performed to obtain subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for liver-related cause of death.

RESULTS

Female and male patients had similar age, racial distribution, insurance status, and comorbidity status by Elixhauser score. Females had higher rates of cholestatic liver disease (17.1% vs. 6.2%, p <0.001) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (29.8% vs. 21.2%, p <0.001) than males. They were less likely to have portal hypertensive complications and had lower peak MELD-Na scores during follow-up. Female sex was associated with a decreased hazard of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80-0.90). This effect was attenuated when liver-related mortality was examined (subdistribution HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-1.00). No significant difference was noted for women who were 'ever-listed' in competing risk analyses for either all-cause mortality (subdistribution HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.88-1.35) or liver-related death (subdistribution HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.87-1.43), despite lower rates of listing (7.5% vs. 9.8%; p <0.001) and transplant (3.5% vs. 5.2%; p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this longitudinal study of patients with cirrhosis, female sex was associated with a survival advantage likely driven by lower rates of non-liver-related death. Women were not at an increased risk of liver-related death despite lower rates of listing and transplantation.

LAY SUMMARY

Patient sex is an important contributor in many chronic diseases, including cirrhosis. Prior studies have suggested that female sex is associated with worse outcomes. We analyzed a cohort of 20,045 patients with cirrhosis using a Chicago-wide electronic health record database. Using multivariate competing risk analyses, we found that female sex in cirrhosis is actually associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and has no association with liver-related mortality. Our findings are novel because we show that women with cirrhosis have a similar risk of liver-related death as their male counterparts, despite lower rates of listing and transplantation.

Survival Benefit of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In the United States, nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) are performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although overall long-term survival is highest with LT, there are limited data on the incremental survival benefit of LT versus other curative options (resection or ablation) due to shunting of patients towards LT.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC in the Veterans Health Administration (population enriched with 3 curative treatments) from 2008 to 2016. The cohort was restricted to patients who received LT, resection, or ablation and a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score <15 at HCC diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 2129 veterans in the analytic cohort, 658 (26.7%) received LT, 244 (11.5%) underwent resection, and 1317 (61.59%) received ablation. In multivariable models, patients who underwent resection (hazard ratio: 5.42; 95% confidence interval: 4.15-7.08) or ablation (hazard ratio: 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 4.51-6.71) had significantly increased hazards of death. However, in absolute terms, the incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was small, between 0.02 and 0.03 years at 1 year, 0.32-0.42 years at 3 years, and 1.04-1.24 years at 5 years follow-up. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for possible immortal time bias, as well as a cohort restricted to early/intermediate stage HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LT is associated with significantly increased survival compared to resection and ablation, the absolute incremental survival benefit is small over a 5-year time horizon. Optimal selection of patients for LT is critical for maximizing utilization of a scarce resource.

A Comprehensive Review of Outcome Predictors in Low MELD Patients

Risk scoring for patients with cirrhosis has evolved greatly over the past several decades. However, patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium scores still suffer from liver-related morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, it is not clear which of these low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score patients would benefit from earlier consideration of liver transplantation. This article reviews the literature of risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis, identifies which patients may benefit from earlier interventions, such as transplantation, and proposes directions for future research.

DAA therapy and long-term hepatic function in advanced/decompensated cirrhosis: Real-world experience from HCV-TARGET cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is used in patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis with the expectation of improving hepatic function. However, little is known about the long-term hepatic benefit of successful antiviral treatment.

METHODS

Patients with advanced/decompensated cirrhosis (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] ≥10), in whom NS5A-containing DAA therapy was initiated prior to September 2018, were included (from the HCV-TARGET cohort). Treatment outcomes and the impact of treatment on short-term and long-term hepatic function were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 642 patients were analyzed. The mean age was 60 years, 68% were male. The median baseline MELD was 12 (range 10-39) and 64% had prior decompensation. Among patients with available virologic outcomes, 90.5% achieved a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks (SVR12). Eighty (24%) patients achieved a clinically significant decrease in MELD by ≥3 points during short-term follow-up (9-26 weeks after the end of treatment). However, in long-term follow-up (median of 4 years after treatment), mean changes in MELD (-0.30 points), total bilirubin (+0.23 mg/dl) and albumin (+0.36 g/dl) were marginal. Fifty-one patients died and 22 underwent liver transplant. In long-term follow-up, a clinically meaningful decrease in MELD of ≥3 occurred in 29% and a final MELD score of <10 was achieved in 25%.

CONCLUSION

In a large real-world experience of patients with advanced/decompensated HCV-related cirrhosis treated with DAAs, there were only marginal improvements in MELD, total bilirubin, or albumin at long-term follow-up (after achieving SVR12). These patients may remain at high risk of decompensation and must continue to be closely monitored. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01474811.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis C virus infection can now be cured with medications, even in patients who have advanced scarring of the liver (cirrhosis). In this study, we evaluated whether liver function improves or deteriorates in the long-term, following successful treatment of hepatitis C in patients with cirrhosis. We found that overall liver function was relatively stable with only 29% of patients achieving a clinically meaningful improvement in liver function, and we therefore believe that these patients require ongoing monitoring.

Grade 1 Acute on Chronic Liver Failure Is a Predictor for Subsequent Grade 3 Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) results in extremely high short-term mortality in patients with underlying cirrhosis. The European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria grade ACLF severity from 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) based on organ failures (OFs) that develop after an acute decompensation (AD). However, the implications of surviving low-grade ACLF in terms of risk of subsequent high-grade ACLF are unclear.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with compensated cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database from January 2008 to June 2016. Propensity matching for grade 1 (G1) ACLF, followed by Cox regression, was used to model risk of subsequent grade 3 (G3) ACLF. Stratified analyses of different ADs and OFs were also performed. We identified 4,878 patients with well-matched propensity scores. G1 ACLF events conferred a significantly increased risk of subsequent G3 ACLF relative no previous G1 ACLF (hazard ratio, 8.69; P < 0.001). When stratified by AD, patients with ascites or hepatic encephalopathy were significantly more likely to develop G3 ACLF relative to those with gastrointestinal bleed or infection as an AD (P < 0.001). Risk of G3 ACLF also varied significantly by type of OF characterizing previous G1 ACLF, with liver, coagulation, and circulatory failure posing the highest increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who recover from G1 ACLF have substantially increased risk of later developing G3 ACLF as compared to those who never have G1 ACLF. Moreover, reversible decompensations for G1 ACLF have a lower risk of G3 ACLF, and liver-intrinsic OFs confer a much higher risk of G3 ACLF. These findings have implications for prognosis, future surveillance, and triaging early transplant evaluation.

Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.

CONCLUSION

We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).

Survival benefit associated with early detection of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in veteran inpatients with cirrhotic ascites

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is common in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with ascites and carries high mortality. This study aimed to determine whether early diagnostic paracentesis (EDP) <12 h of hospitalization conveys an intermediate‐term (6‐month) survival benefit in cirrhotic patients diagnosed with SBP.

Methods

Consecutive US veterans with cirrhosis diagnosed with SBP over 13 years at a single VA medical center were reviewed retrospectively. Kaplan‐Meyer analyses assessed the effects of EDP on survival.

Results

A total of 79 cirrhotic patients were diagnosed with SBP (61.8 ± 8.8 years, n = 77 male, n = 52 [66.8%] Caucasian, n = 23 [29.1%] African‐American). Underlying liver diseases included hepatitis c viral infection (HCV) (17.5%), alcohol (28.6%), alcohol and HCV (30.1%), and cryptogenic/metabolic (15.9%). Median baseline model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) was 12 (range 6–34), and median MELD at presentation was 18. Seven subjects had a history of hepatocellular carcinoma (11.1%), and 26 (41.3%) presented with sepsis. Thirty‐three (52.4%) subjects died within 6 months after the SBP admission. Of the subjects, 41 (65.1%) underwent EDP, of which 23 (56.0%) survived at least 6 months, compared to only 7 of the 22 patients (31.8%) undergoing paracentesis >12 h from presentation (P = 0.057). The maximal benefit of EDP on survival was observed beyond days 14 and 30; at these time points, no statistical difference in mortality was discernable (P = 0.55 and 0.71). In a multivariate model including age, MELD at admission, hepatocellular cancer, and sepsis criteria, EDP (p 0.034) positively impacted patient survival at 6 months.

Conclusions

EDP is associated with improved 6‐month mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites. In this veteran cohort, EDP was as important as MELD as a predictor of intermediate‐term survival.

Risk prediction scores for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) causes high short-term mortality in patients with previously stable chronic liver disease. To date there are no models to predict which patients are likely to develop ACLF, and existing models to predict ACLF mortality are based on limited cohorts. We sought to create novel risk prediction scores using a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 74 790 patients with incident cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database using randomized 70% derivation/30% validation sets. ACLF events were identified per the European ACLF criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models for developing ACLF at 3, 6 and 12 months, and ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days. Mortality models were compared to model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score.

RESULTS

Models for the developing ACLF had very good discrimination (concordance [C] statistics 0.83-0.87) at all timepoints. Models for ACLF mortality also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C-statistics 0.79-0.82), and were superior to MELD, MELD-sodium and the CLIF-C ACLF score. The calibration of the novel models was excellent at all timepoints.

CONCLUSION

We have obtained highly-predictive models for developing ACLF, as well as for ACLF short-term mortality in a diverse United States cohort. These may be used to identify outpatients at significant risk of ACLF, which may prompt closer follow-up or early transplant referral, and facilitate decision making for patients with diagnosed ACLF, including escalation of care, expedited transplant evaluation or palliation.

Integrated Model for Patient-Centered Advanced Liver Disease Care

Advanced liver disease (AdvLD) is a high-risk common condition with a progressive, highly morbid, and often fatal course. Despite effective treatments, there are substantial shortfalls in access to and use of evidence-based supportive and palliative care for AdvLD. Although patient-centered, chronic illness models that integrate early supportive and palliative care with curative treatments hold promise, there are several knowledge gaps that hinder development of an integrated model for AdvLD. We review these evidence gaps. We also describe a conceptual framework for a patient-centered approach that explicates key elements needed to improve integrated care. An integrated model of AdvLD would allow clinicians, patients, and caregivers to work collaboratively to identify treatments and other healthcare that best align with patients' priorities.

Ability of the post-operative ALBI grade to predict the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative surgery

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has been validated as a significant predictor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there is little information about the impact of postoperative ALBI grade in patients with HCC who are undergoing liver resection. We enrolled 525 HCC patients who received primary resection from April 2001 to March 2017. The impact of the pre- and post-operative ALBI grades on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed by multivariate analysis. During the follow-up period (mean, 65 months), 253 (48.1%) patients experienced recurrence, and 85 (16.2%) patients died. Multivariate analysis revealed that diabetes mellitus (DM) (p = 0.011), alpha-fetoprotein levels (AFP) (p < 0.001), low platelet count (p = 0.008), liver cirrhosis (p < 0.001), and the first year of ALBI grade after resection (p < 0.001) were independent predictors for RFS. Additionally, old age (p = 0.006), DM (p = 0.002), AFP (p = 0.027), and ALBI grade at the first year after resection (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for poor liver-related survival. Patients with post-operative ALBI grades II/III had older age (p = 0.019), hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.038), DM (p = 0.043), and high stages of pTNM (p = 0.021). The post-operative ALBI grade is better for predicting the outcomes in HCC patients after curative hepatectomy than the pre-operative ALBI grade.

Assessing Liver Function in Liver Tumors Patients: The Performance of T1 Mapping and Residual Liver Volume on Gd-EOBDTPA-Enhanced MRI

Purpose: To assess the performance of T1 mapping and residual liver volume (RLV) on Gd-EOBDTPA-enhanced MRI in pretreatment estimation of liver function in patients with liver tumors. Indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG R-15) was used as a reference standard. Methods: Ethical approval from the institutional review board and informed consent were obtained for this prospective study. We enrolled 155 patients with liver tumors who underwent pretreatment Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI. T1 relaxation time before (T1-pre), 20 min after (T1-post) Gd-EOB-DTPA injection and RLV were measured. The absolute reduction (ΔT1) and reduction rate (ΔT1%) of T1 relaxation time, volume-assisted ΔT1 (ΔT1^*RLV) and volume-assisted ΔT1% (ΔT1%^*RLV) were calculated accordingly. The correlation of MR parameters with ICG R-15 was determined using Spearman's rank correlation analysis. Patients were classified into the normal liver function (NLF) group if their ICG R-15 levels were <10% or otherwise into the abnormal liver function (ALF) group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate the performances of the MR parameters in predicting ALF. Results: T1-post (r = 0.472, P < 0.001), ΔT1 (r = -0.355, P = 0.011), ΔT1% (r = -0.482, P < 0.001), RLV (r = -0.336, P < 0.001), volume-assisted ΔT1 (r = -0.458, P < 0.001) and volume-assisted ΔT1% (r = -0.522, P < 0.001) showed weak to moderate correlation with ICG R-15. The area under the ROC curves (AUROC) of volume-assisted ΔT1 in predicting ALF was 0.777, which was significantly higher than the other parameters (P < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: Combined T1 mapping and RLV on Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI can help assess liver function with good diagnostic accuracy in patients with liver tumors before treatment.

Quality Measures, All-Cause Mortality, and Health Care Use in a National Cohort of Veterans With Cirrhosis

Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. However, no standardized quality measures (QMs) have yet been adopted widely. The Veterans Affairs (VA) Advanced Liver Disease Technical Advisory Group recently developed a set of six internal QMs to guide quality improvement efforts in cirrhosis in the domains of access to care, hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, variceal surveillance, quality of inpatient care for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and cirrhosis-related rehospitalizations. We aimed to (1) quantify adherence to cirrhosis QMs and (2) determine whether adherence was associated with all-cause mortality and health care use within a large national cohort of veterans with cirrhosis. We performed a retrospective study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Asociated with Liver Disease cohort of 121,129 patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2016, at 128 VA facilities. The mean follow-up time was 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.1-5.1 years). Adherence to outpatient access to specialty care was 71%, variceal surveillance was 32%, and early postdischarge care was 54%. In adjusted analyses, outpatient access to specialty care (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.82), hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95), variceal surveillance (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99), and early postdischarge care (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.54-0.60) were associated with lower all-cause mortality. Readmissions after 30 days (HR, 1.53; 1.46-1.60) and 90 days (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.54-1.70) were associated with higher all-cause mortality. Higher adherence to QMs was also associated with lower inpatient health care use. Conclusion: Five of the six proposed VA cirrhosis QMs were measurable using existing data sources, associated with mortality and health care use, and may be used to guide future quality improvement efforts in cirrhosis.

Albumin-bilirubin and platelet-albumin-bilirubin grades for hepatitis B-associated hepatocellular carcinoma in Child-Pugh A patients treated with radical surgery: A retrospective observational study

Child-Pugh (CP) grade A patients with early stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are candidates for curative surgery, while some patients still have a poor outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic values of 2 new evaluation models for liver function, named albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grades, in CP grade A patients with HCC.In this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed 134 cases of CP grade A patients with hepatitis B-associated HCC who underwent radical surgery. ALBI and PALBI grades were calculated based on preoperative serologic examinations. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression. The prognostic performances of the models were estimated by using the concordance index (C-index).During a median follow-up time of 27 months, 27.6% (37/134) of patients died and 26.1% (35/134) experienced recurrence. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that ALBI and PALBI grades were significantly associated with OS and RFS. Multivariate analyses further revealed that both ALBI and PALBI grades were independent predictors for survival. Furthermore, the prognostic values of the combination of tumor size with ALBI (C-index = 0.754, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.675-0.849) or with PALBI (C-index = 0.762, 95% CI: 0.664-0.844) may be comparable with both Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and Cancer of Liver Italian Program staging systems.The ALBI and PALBI grades, in particular the combination with tumor size, are effective models for discriminating survival in CP grade A patients with HCC.

Incidence and Mortality of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Using Two Definitions in Patients with Compensated Cirrhosis

The term acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is intended to identify patients with chronic liver disease who develop rapid deterioration of liver function and high short-term mortality after an acute insult. The two prominent definitions (European Association for the Study of the Liver [EASL] and Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver [APASL]) differ, and existing literature applies to narrow patient groups. We sought to compare ACLF incidence and mortality among a diverse cohort of patients with compensated cirrhosis, using both definitions. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with incident compensated cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 to 2016. First ACLF events were identified for each definition. Incidence rates were computed as events per 1,000 person-years, and mortality was calculated at 28 and 90 days. Among 80,383 patients with cirrhosis with 3.35 years median follow-up, 783 developed EASL and APASL ACLF, 4,296 developed EASL ACLF alone, and 574 developed APASL ACLF alone. The incidence rate of APASL ACLF was 5.7 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.4-6.0), and the incidence rate of EASL ACLF was 20.1 (95% CI: 19.5-20.6). The 28-day and 90-day mortalities for APASL ACLF were 41.9% and 56.1%, respectively, and were 37.6% and 50.4% for EASL ACLF. The median bilirubin level at diagnosis of EASL-alone ACLF was 2.0 mg/dL (interquartile range: 1.1-4.0). Patients with hepatitis C or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease had among the lowest ACLF incidence rates but had the highest short-term mortality. Conclusion: There is significant discordance in ACLF events by EASL and APASL criteria. The majority of patients with EASL-alone ACLF have preserved liver function, suggesting the need for more liver-specific ACLF criteria.

Effects of Hypercholesterolemia and Statin Exposure on Survival in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Concerns related to hepatotoxicity frequently lead to discontinuation or non-initiation of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase therapy in patients with cirrhosis despite data supporting statin use. We investigated the independent effects of hyperlipidemia and statin exposure on mortality, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma development in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis from January 1, 2008 through June 30, 2016 in the Veterans Health Administration. Subjects were divided into 2 cohorts: 21,921 patients with prior statin exposure (existing users) and 51,023 statin-naïve individuals, of whom 8794 subsequently initiated statin therapy (new initiators) and 44,269 did not (non-initiators). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with inverse probability weighting were constructed to assess the effects of time-updating lipid profiles and cumulative exposure to statins on survival and hepatic decompensation. Statin-naïve new initiators were propensity matched with non-initiators to simulate a randomized controlled trial of statin use in cirrhosis.

RESULTS

In statin-naïve subjects, every 10-mg/dL increase in baseline total cholesterol was associated with a 3.6% decrease in mortality. In existing users, each year of continued statin exposure was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.920 (95% confidence interval 0.0.897-0.943) for mortality. After risk-set matching, each year of statin exposure among new initiators was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.913 (95% confidence interval 0.890-0.937) for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective cohort study of veterans with a new diagnosis of cirrhosis, we associated hypercholesterolemia with well-preserved hepatic function and decreased mortality. Nonetheless, each cumulative year of statin exposure was associated with an independent 8.0%-8.7% decrease of mortality of patients with cirrhosis of Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A and B.

Prevalence and short-term mortality of acute-on-chronic liver failure: A national cohort study from the USA

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by the presence of organ failure in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and is associated with high short-term mortality. However, there are limited data on the prevalence and short-term outcomes of ACLF in patients with cirrhosis seen in the US. We aimed to study the prevalence and risk factors associated with the development and short term mortality in a large cohort of patients in the US.

METHODS

Using the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse, we identified patients with ACLF during hospitalisation for decompensated cirrhosis at any of the 127 VA hospitals between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2014. We examined the prevalence of ACLF and variables associated with 28- and 90-day mortality in ACLF, and trends in prevalence and survival over time.

RESULTS

Of 72,316 patients hospitalised for decompensated cirrhosis, 19,082 (26.4%) patients met the criteria of ACLF on admission. Of these, 12.8% had 1, 10.1% had 2, and 3.5% had 3 or more organ failures. Overall, 25.5% and 40.0% of ACLF patients died within 28 days and 90 days of admission, respectively. Older age, White race, liver cancer, higher model for end-stage liver disease sodium corrected score, and non-liver transplant centre were associated with increased risk of death in ACLF. Over the study period, the prevalence of ACLF decreased, and all grades but ACLF-3 had improvement in survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis, ACLF was common and associated with high short-term mortality. Over a decade, ACLF prevalence decreased but survival improvement of ACLF-3 was not seen. Early recognition and aggressive management including timely referral to transplant centres may lead to improved outcomes in ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and associated with a high risk of death. In this study of US patients hospitalised with cirrhosis, 1 in 4 patients developed ACLF. In total, 25% of patients with ACLF died within 1 month and 40% died within 3 months. Thus, early recognition of ACLF is important for the initiation of aggressive management, which is required to save these patients' lives.

Acute sporadic hepatitis E in the Zhejiang coastal area of China: a 14-year hospital-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

To examine the epidemiological trends and changes of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection and the potential risk factors for severe infection in the Zhejiang eastern coastal area of China.

METHODS

We analyzed statutory hepatitis E cases notifications and inpatient data held by the national surveillance and hospital information systems in Wenzhou, Taizhou, Ningbo, and Zhoushan cities of the Zhejiang eastern coastal area of China.

RESULTS

Nine thousand four hundred sixteen hepatitis E cases were reported from 2004 to 2017, with an average incidence of 2.94 per 100,000. The overall death rate was 0.06% (6/9416). A gradual decline of hepatitis E cases was found in the coastal areas since 2007, while a rise was identified in the non-coastal areas. Annual incidence in non-coastal cities was much higher than that in coastal cities (4.345 vs. 2.945 per 100,000, relative risk = 1.5, P value < 0.001). The mean age was 52 years old and 50.55 years with a male-to-female ratio of 2.32:1 and 2.21:1 in coastal and noncoastal areas respectively (all P > 0.05). Hepatitis E cases prevalence increased with age, highest among men in their 70s (9.02 vs. 11.33 per 100,000) and women in their 60s (3.94 vs. 4.66 per 100,000) groups for both coastal and noncoastal areas respectively. A clear seasonal pattern was observed, with a peak in March (0.4429 per 100,000) in coastal areas. 202 inpatients were documented, of which 50.50% (102/202) were severe cases. Male individuals with alcohol consumption, alcohol hepatic diseases, and superinfection were the three independent highest risks for severe infections (all with P value < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This is to our knowledge the largest epidemiological study of hepatitis E cases in the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang province of China. The patterns of infection across the coastal areas were similar to those of the non-coastal areas, but the incidence was substantially lower and decreased gradually since 2007.

Surgical portosystemic shunts versus transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Variceal haemorrhage that is refractory or recurs after pharmacologic and endoscopic therapy requires a portal decompression shunt (either surgical shunts or radiologic shunt, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)). TIPS has become the shunt of choice; however, is it the preferred option? This review assesses evidence for the comparisons of surgical portosystemic shunts versus TIPS for variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of surgical portosystemic shunts versus transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science. We also searched on-line trial registries, reference lists of relevant articles, and proceedings of relevant associations for trials that met the inclusion criteria for this review (date of search 8 March 2018).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials comparing surgical portosystemic shunts versus TIPS for the treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trials and extracted data using methodological standards expected by Cochrane. We assessed risk of bias according to domains and risk of random errors with Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA). We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We found four randomised clinical trials including 496 adult participants diagnosed with variceal haemorrhage due to cirrhotic portal hypertension. The overall risk of bias in all the trials was judged at high risk. All the trials were conducted in the United States of America (USA). Two of the trials randomised participants to selective surgical shunts versus TIPS. The other two trials randomised participants to non-selective surgical shunts versus TIPS. The diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was by clinical and laboratory findings. We are uncertain whether there is a difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days between surgical portosystemic shunts compared with TIPS (risk ratio (RR) 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 1.99; participants = 496; studies = 4). We are uncertain whether there is a difference in encephalopathy between surgical shunts compared with TIPS (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.16; participants = 496; studies = 4). We found evidence suggesting an increase in the occurrence of the following harms in the TIPS group compared with surgical shunts: all-cause mortality at five years (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.90; participants = 496; studies = 4); variceal rebleeding (RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.49; participants = 496; studies = 4); reinterventions (RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.28; participants = 496; studies = 4); and shunt occlusion (RR 0.14, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.51; participants = 496; studies = 4). We could not perform an analysis of health-related quality of life but available evidence appear to suggest improved health-related quality of life in people who received surgical shunt compared with TIPS. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence for all-cause mortality at 30 days and five years, irreversible shunt occlusion, and encephalopathy to very low because of high risk of bias (due to lack of blinding); inconsistency (due to heterogeneity); imprecision (due to small sample sizes of the individual trials and few events); and publication bias (few trials reporting outcomes). We downgraded the certainty of the evidence for variceal rebleeding and reintervention to very low because of high risk of bias (due to lack of blinding); imprecision (due to small sample sizes of the individual trials and few events); and publication bias (few trials reporting outcomes). The small sample sizes and few events did not allow us to produce meaningful trial sequential monitoring boundaries, suggesting plausible random errors in our estimates.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence suggesting that surgical portosystemic shunts may have benefit over TIPS for treatment of refractory or recurrent variceal haemorrhage in people with cirrhotic portal hypertension. Given the very low-certainty of the available evidence and risks of random errors in our analyses, we have very little confidence in our review findings.

Pharmacokinetic Analysis of Propofol Target-Controlled Infusion Models in Chinese Patients with Hepatic Insufficiency

Background

Effects of liver dysfunction on target-controlled infusion (TCI) with Marsh parameters of propofol remain poorly documented. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of propofol TCI in a cohort of Chinese patients with severe hepatic insufficiency.

Material/Methods

We assigned 32 patients who underwent liver transplantation to 3 groups according to Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Anesthesia, preceding liver transplantation, was induced and maintained with TCI of 3 μg/mL propofol. Plasma propofol concentration was assessed. Propofol TCI system performance was analyzed in terms of error size, bias, and divergence. Data on plasma propofol concentrations were analyzed, and population pharmacokinetic parameters of propofol were fitted by NONMEM software.

Results

In the CTP C group, measured concentrations of propofol were much higher than those of predictive concentrations, with significantly higher overshoots compared to CTP A patients. Overall, TCI system performance was significantly lower in CTP C patients. Linear regression equations of Cm vs. Cp and a regression model of pharmacokinetics were obtained.

Conclusions

Propofol TCI device performance with Marsh parameters was clinically acceptable in CTP A patients but may not be suitable for patients with severe hepatic impairment.

Hypergammaglobulinemia is a strong predictor of disease progression, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The outcome of compensated cirrhosis may vary considerably and cannot be predicted by routinely performed tests at present. The aim of this study was to evaluate possible predictors of clinical evolution in patients with Child-Pugh (C-P) class A cirrhosis because of untreatable causes by analysing clinical/biochemical/instrumental parameters evaluated at the time of diagnosis and during the subsequent long-lasting follow-up.

METHODS

Two hundred and seventy-two consecutive C-P class A cirrhotic patients (155 males; median age 63 years, range 34-81) were analysed. All patients were followed up for a median time of 96 months (range 21-144) through periodically performed clinical/biochemical/ultrasonographic and esophagogastroduodenoscopic examinations.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 97 individuals (36%) were clinically stable, 104 (38%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 71 (26%) progressed towards C-P class B/C without developing cancer. One hundred and thirty-one patients (48%) died or underwent liver transplantation. Multivariate regression analysis showed that clinical stability was significantly associated with older age (P < .001), the absence of diabetes (P = .04) and of oesophageal varices (P < .001), serum albumin >3.5 gr/dL (P = .01) and gamma globulin <1.8 gr/dL (P = .01). HCC development was significantly associated with younger age (P = .01) and serum gamma globulin values ≥1.8 gr/dL (P < .001). C-P score progression was associated with oesophageal varices (P < .001), lower serum albumin (P = .03) and cholesterol (P = .01) values, and hypergammaglobulinemia (P = .02). Death was associated with younger age (P < .001) and hypergammaglobulinemia (P = .01). Multivariate Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier's survival test confirmed that gammaglobulinemia ≥1.8 g/dL was a significant predictor of death (P < .02, and P < .01 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypergammaglobulinemia identifies C-P class A cirrhotic patients at higher risk of disease progression, HCC development and death.

Comparing Child-Pugh, MELD, and FIB-4 to Predict Clinical Outcomes in Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Persons: Results From ERCHIVES

Background

Identifying hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive persons at high risk of early complications can help prioritize treatment decisions. We conducted this study to compare Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CP), MELD, and FIB-4 scores for predicting clinical outcomes and to identify those at low risk of complications.

Methods

Within electronically retrieved cohort of HCV-infected veterans, we identified HCV-positive persons and excluded those with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), prevalent hepatic decompensation (HD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and those treated for HCV. We calculated incidence rates for HD, HCC, and all-cause mortality at 1, 3, and 5 years after HCV diagnosis. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we determined the optimal cut-off values for each score for these outcomes.

Results

Among 21 116 persons evaluated, 89.7% were CP Class-A, 79.9% had MELD<9, and 43.4% had FIB-4<1.45. AUROC for HD at 1, 3, and 5 years was higher for FIB-4 (0.84-0.86) compared with MELD (0.70-0.76) (P < .001). AUROC for HCC at 1, 3, and 5 years was 0.81-0.82 for FIB-4 but 0.61-0.68 for CP and MELD scores. (P < .001) AUROC for all-cause mortality at 3 and 5 years was 0.65-0.68. The optimal cut-off scores to identify persons at low risk of complications were as follows: CP <5; MELD <8; FIB-4 <3 for HD and HCC, and <2 for all-cause mortality, below which <1.5% developed HD and HCC and ≤2.5% died at 3 years.

Conclusions

FIB-4 score is a better predictor of HD and HCC in HCV-positive persons. A score of <3 is associated with a low risk of HD and HCC 1 and 3 years after HCV diagnosis.

Combining albumin-bilirubin score with future liver remnant predicts post-hepatectomy liver failure in HBV-associated HCC patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Accurate assessment of liver functional reserve pre-operatively is vital for safe hepatic resection. The ALBI score is a new model for assessing liver function. This study aimed to evaluate the value of combining ALBI score with sFLR in predicting post-operative morbidity and PHLF in HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy.

METHODS

Patients undergoing three-dimensional CT reconstruction prior to hepatectomy for HCC between January 2015 and January 2017 were enrolled. The values of the CP score, ALBI score and sFLR in predicting post-operative outcomes were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 229 HCC patients were enrolled; 24 (10.5%) experienced major complications and 21 (9.2%) developed PHLF. The incidence of major complications and PHLF increased with increasing ALBI grade. The ALBI grade classified patients with CP grade A into two subgroups with different incidences of PHLF (P=.029). sFLR and ALBI scores were identified as independent predictors of PHLF. The AUC values for the CP score, ALBI score, sFLR and sFLR×ALBI for predicting major complications were 0.600, 0.756, 0.660 and 0.790 respectively. The AUC values of the CP score, ALBI score, sFLR and sFLR×ALBI for predicting PHLF were 0.646, 0.738, 0.758 and 0.884 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The ALBI score showed superior predictive value of post-operative outcomes over CP score, and the combination of sFLR and ALBI score was identified as a stronger predictor of post-operative outcomes than the sFLR or ALBI score alone.

A Comparative Study of Albumin-Bilirubin Score with Child-Pugh Score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Indocyanine Green R15 in Predicting Posthepatectomy Liver Failure for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade is a newly proposed model for assessing the hepatic function. This study aimed to compare the value of the ALBI score with Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and indocyanine green (ICG) R15 in predicting posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF).

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between January 2014 and June 2017 were enrolled. The values of the Child-Pugh score, MELD score, ICG R15 and ALBI score in predicting PHLF were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 473 HCC patients were enrolled. The ALBI score was identified as an independent predictor of PHLF. The AUCs for the Child-Pugh score, MELD score, ICG R15 and ALBI score in predicting PHLF were 0.665, 0.649, 0.668, and 0.745 respectively. Multivariable analyses revealed that the ALBI score was an independent predictor of PHLF regardless of the hepatectomy subgroups, but the Child-Pugh score and MELD score were not significant predictors of PHLF both in major and minor hepatectomy subgroups, and ICG R15 was only a significant predictor of PHLF in minor hepatectomy subgroup.

CONCLUSION

The ALBI score showed superior predictive value of PHLF over Child-Pugh score, MELD score and ICG R15. We propose to use the ALBI score to evaluate surgical risk for HCC patients undergoing hepatic resection.

Effect of Paritaprevir/Ritonavir/Ombitasvir/Dasabuvir and Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir Regimens on Survival Compared With Untreated Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Persons: Results From ERCHIVES

Background

Interferon-based regimens are associated with a substantial survival benefit for persons infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). Survival data with direct-acting antiviral agents are not available. We conducted this study to quantify the effect of paritaprevir/ritonavir, ombitasvir, dasabuvir (PrOD) and ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) regimens upon mortality.

Methods

In the Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES), a well-established national cohort of HCV-infected Veterans, we identified HCV-infected persons initiated on PrOD or LDV/SOF, excluding those with human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B surface antigen positivity, hepatocellular carcinoma, or missing HCV RNA or FIB-4 scores. For each case, we identified a propensity score-matched control never initiated on treatment. Primary outcome was survival. Outcomes were assessed using frequency of events, Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.

Results

We identified 1473 persons on PrOD, 5497 on LDV/SOF, and 6970 propensity score-matched untreated persons. Treated persons were more likely to be obese and have cirrhosis, but less likely to have stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD), alcohol or drug abuse or dependence diagnosis, and anemia. The proportion of persons who died was higher in the untreated group compared with either treatment group (PrOD, 0.3%; LDV/SOF, 1.4%; untreated controls, 2.5%; P < .001). A significantly larger percentage of treated patients survived to 18 months of follow-up, compared with untreated controls (P < .001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, treatment with either regimen (hazard ratio [HR], 0.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], .33-.57) and attainment of sustained virologic response (SVR) were associated with significantly lower mortality (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, .33-.99).

Conclusions

Treatment with PrOD or LDV/SOF and SVR are associated with a significant mortality benefit, apparent within the first 18 months of treatment.

Transarterial Chemoembolization within First 3 Months of Sorafenib Initiation Improves Overall Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective, Multi-Institutional Study with Propensity Matching

PURPOSE

The impact of transarterial chemoembolization after initiation of sorafenib (SOR) has not been prospectively compared with SOR alone in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of this study was to assess whether SOR + transarterial chemoembolization provides benefit over SOR alone in this setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study with propensity matching using data from patients prescribed SOR for HCC at Veterans Health Administration hospitals from 2007 to 2015. The primary outcome was overall survival from the time of SOR prescription and stratified by receipt of transarterial chemoembolization within 90 days of SOR initiation.

RESULTS

A total of 4,896 patients received SOR for HCC, of whom 232 (4.7%) underwent transarterial chemoembolization within 90 days. Patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization + SOR were highly selected, being younger and with less significant hepatic dysfunction, earlier Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage (P < .0001), and fewer tumors with lower rates of macrovascular invasion (MVI) and metastases (all P < .0001) than SOR-alone patients. In unadjusted analysis, SOR + transarterial chemoembolization was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.71; P < .0001). After propensity matching, SOR + transarterial chemoembolization continued to show significant associations with reduced mortality with HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.62-0.92; P = .0005). Subgroup analysis suggests that the addition of transarterial chemoembolization to SOR improves outcomes in most patients, particularly those with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score <15, platelets >50,000/μL, and >3 tumors with or without macrovascular invasion, without local invasion or metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with unresectable HCC started on systemic therapy with SOR appear to benefit from adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization. Optimal application of multimodal therapy in this setting should be prospectively investigated.

A validation study of the CirCom comorbidity score in an English cirrhosis population using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Purpose

The CirCom score has been developed from Danish data as a specific measure of comorbidity for cirrhosis to predict all-cause mortality. We compared its performance with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) in an English cirrhosis population.

Patients and methods

We used comorbidity scores in a survival model to predict mortality in a cirrhosis cohort in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The discrimination of each score was compared by age, gender, socioeconomic status, cirrhosis etiology, cirrhosis stage, and year after cirrhosis diagnosis. We also measured their ability to predict liver-related versus non-liver-related death.

Results

There was a small improvement in the C statistic from the model using the CirCom score (C=0.63) compared to the CCI (C=0.62), and there was an overall improvement in the net reclassification index of 1.5%. The improvement was more notable in younger patients, those with an alcohol etiology, and those with compensated cirrhosis. Both scores performed better (C statistic >0.7) for non-liver-related deaths than liver-related deaths (C statistic <0.6), as comorbidity was only weakly predictive of liver-related death.

Conclusion

The CirCom score provided a small improvement in performance over the CCI in the prediction of all-cause and non-liver mortality, but not liver-related mortality. Therefore, it is important to include a measure of comorbidity in studies of cirrhosis survival, alongside a measure of cirrhosis severity.

Healthcare Costs Related to Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Veterans With Cirrhosis in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is important to quantify medical costs associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the incidence of which is rapidly increasing in the United States, for development of rational healthcare policies related to liver cancer surveillance and treatment of chronic liver disease. We aimed to comprehensively quantify healthcare costs for HCC among patients with cirrhosis in an integrated health system and develop a model for predicting costs that is based on clinically relevant variables.

METHODS

Three years subsequent to liver cancer diagnosis, costs accrued by patients included in the Veteran's Outcome and Cost Associated with Liver disease cohort were compiled by using the Department of Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse. The cohort includes all patients with HCC diagnosed in 2008-2010 within the VA with 100% chart confirmation as well as chart abstraction of tumor and clinical characteristics. Cancer cases were matched 1:4 with non-cancer cirrhosis controls on the basis of severity of liver disease, age, and comorbidities to estimate background cirrhosis-related costs. Univariable and multivariable generalized linear models were developed and used to predict cancer-related overall cost.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 3188 cases of HCC and 12,722 controls. The mean 3-year total cost of care in HCC patients was $154,688 (standard error, $150,953-$158,422) compared with $69,010 (standard error, $67,344-$70,675) in matched cirrhotic controls, yielding an incremental cost of $85,679; 64.9% of this value reflected increased inpatient costs. In univariable analyses, receipt of transplantation, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, liver disease etiology, hospital academic affiliation, use of multidisciplinary tumor board, and identification through surveillance were associated with cancer-related costs. Multivariable generalized linear models incorporating transplantation status, BCLC stage, and multidisciplinary tumor board presentation accurately predicted liver cancer-related costs (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit; P value ≅ 1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

In a model developed to comprehensively quantify healthcare costs for HCC among patients with cirrhosis in an integrated health system, we associated receipt of liver transplantation, BCLC stage, and multidisciplinary tumor board with higher costs. Models that predict total costs on the basis of receipt of liver transplantation were constructed and can be used to model cost-effectiveness of therapies focused on HCC prevention.

Sorafenib prescribed by gastroenterologists and hepatologists for hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective, multi-institutional cohort study

Sorafenib is the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved first-line therapy shown to have survival benefit for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with advanced HCC are often but not exclusively transferred from non-oncologists to oncologists to initiate systemic therapy. The objective of this study was to assess whether sorafenib prescribing by non-oncologists has any impact on utilization, adverse effects, cost or outcome.This was a retrospective cohort study utilizing data from patients prescribed sorafenib for HCC within Veterans Health Administration hospitals with 100% chart abstraction to confirm HCC diagnosis, identify prescribing provider specialty (oncology versus gastroenterology/hepatology), and obtain data required for cancer staging by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system. The primary outcome was overall survival from the time of sorafenib prescription.A total of 4903 patients who prescribed sorafenib for HCC were identified, for whom 340 patients (6.9%) were prescribed drug by a non-oncologist (Onc). BCLC Stage, age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, and comorbidity indices were similar between patients prescribed sorafenib by oncologists and non-oncologists. Oncologists more often discontinued sorafenib due to progression, whereas non-oncologists were more likely to continue sorafenib until death resulting in greater pill utilization and cost. Overall survival in both unadjusted and multivariable models showed no significant impact of prescriber type on survival (222 vs 217 days, P = .96), confirmed with propensity-matched subcohorts.Similar survival outcomes were observed for patients with HCC prescribed sorafenib by non-oncologists and oncologists, suggesting that non-oncologists with expertise in the management of HCC can safely and effectively administer sorafenib.

Starting Dose of Sorafenib for the Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective, Multi-Institutional Study

Purpose Sorafenib is currently the only Food and Drug Administration-approved first-line therapy for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. There are few data examining how sorafenib starting dose may influence patient outcomes and costs. Patients and Methods We retrospectively evaluated 4,903 patients from 128 Veterans Health Administration hospitals who were prescribed sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma between January 2006 and April 2015. After 1:1 propensity score matching to account for potential treatment bias, hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression and were tested against a noninferiority margin of HR = 1.1. A matched multivariate logistic regression was performed to adjust for potential confounders. The primary end point was overall survival (OS) of patients who were prescribed standard starting dosage sorafenib (800 mg/d per os) versus that of patients who were prescribed reduced starting dose sorafenib (< 800 mg/d per os). Results There were 3,094 standard dose sorafenib patients (63%) and 1,809 reduced starting dose sorafenib patients (37%). Reduced starting dose sorafenib patients had more Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage D ( P < .001), higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium scores ( P < .001), higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores ( P < .001), and higher Cirrhosis Comorbidity Index scores ( P = .01). Consequently, reduced starting dose sorafenib patients had lower OS (median, 200 v 233 days, HR = 1.10). After propensity score matching and adjusting for potential confounders, there was no longer a significant OS difference (adjusted hazard ratio [HR_adj], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.01), and this fell significantly below the noninferiority margin ( P < .001). Reduced starting dose sorafenib patients experienced significantly lower total cumulative sorafenib cost and were less likely to discontinue sorafenib because of gastrointestinal adverse effects (8.7% v 10.8%; P = .047). Conclusion The initiation of sorafenib therapy at reduced dosages was associated with reduced pill burden, reduced treatment costs, and a trend toward a decreased rate of discontinuing sorafenib because of adverse events. Reduced dosing was not associated with inferior OS relative to standard dosing.

Integration of Child-Pugh score with future liver remnant yields improved prediction of liver dysfunction risk for HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatic resection

Assessment of hepatic functional reserve is important to enable the selection of appropriate treatment methods and safe hepatic resection in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In the present study, an evaluation was made of the clinical value of combining the Child-Pugh score (CPS) with the standardized future liver remnant (sFLR) measurement to predict postoperative liver dysfunction (PLD). A total of 61 HBV-related HCC patients undergoing liver volumetry prior to hepatectomy were enrolled in the study. The sFLR was calculated as the ratio of FLR volume to standardized liver volume. PLD was defined as a prothrombin time of >18 sec or a peak serum bilirubin level of >51.3 µmol/l for 7 days after surgery. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors associated with PLD. The correlation between PLD and the combination of sFLR and CPS was analyzed. In total, 18 out of 61 patients developed PLD (29.5%), with a significantly higher PLD incidence for a CPS of 6 than a CPS of 5 (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a prothrombin time of <13.3 sec and an sFLR of <0.55 were independent risk factors for PLD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the cut-off values of sFLR and sFLR/CPS for predicting PLD were 54.5% and 0.0916, respectively, with areas under the ROC curve of 0.820 and 0.860, respectively. The combination of CPS and sFLR appears to yield improved prediction of the occurrence of PLD compared with either CPS or sFLR alone.

Mailed Outreach Program Increases Ultrasound Screening of Patients With Cirrhosis for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Surveillance of patients with cirrhosis increases early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and prolongs survival. However, its effectiveness is limited by underuse, particularly among racial/ethnic minorities and individuals of low socioeconomic status. We compared the effectiveness of mailed outreach strategies, with and without patient navigation, in increasing the numbers of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surveillance for HCC in a racially diverse and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of patients with documented or suspected cirrhosis at a large safety-net health system from December 2014 through March 2016. Patients were assigned randomly (1:1:1) to groups that received mailed invitations for an ultrasound screening examination (n = 600), mailed invitations for an ultrasound screening examination and patient navigation (barrier assessment and motivational education for patients who declined screening; n = 600), or usual care (visit-based screening; n = 600). Patients who did not respond to outreach invitations within 2 weeks received up to 3 reminder telephone calls. The primary outcome was completion of abdominal imaging within 6 months of randomization.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar among groups. Cirrhosis was documented, based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, codes, for 79.6% of patients, and suspected, based on noninvasive markers of fibrosis, for 20.4%. In an intent-to-treat analysis, significantly greater proportions of patients who received the mailed invitation and navigation (47.2%) or the mailed invitation alone (44.5%) underwent HCC screening than patients who received usual care (24.3%) (P < .001 for both comparisons). However, screening rates did not differ significantly between outreach the outreach groups (P = .25). The effects of the outreach program were consistent in all subgroups, including Caucasian vs non-Caucasian race, documented vs suspected cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A vs B cirrhosis, and receipt of gastroenterology care.

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective study, we found outreach strategies to double the percentage of patients with cirrhosis who underwent ultrasound screening for HCC. However, adding patient navigation to telephone reminders provided no significant additional benefit. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT02312817.

Efficacy and safety of endometrial ablation for treating abnormal uterine bleeding in pre- and postmenopausal women with liver cirrhosis

AIM

Abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) occurs in 10-30% of women of reproductive age and up to 61% of cirrhotic women. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of endometrial ablation (NovaSure therapy) for AUB in cirrhotic women.

METHODS

This prospective, two-arm, observational study enrolled patients for NovaSure treatment, and they were followed for 12 months. Primary measurements were the amenorrhea rate and changes of pictorial blood loss assessment chart (PBLAC) scores at 1-month post-therapy. Key secondary end-points included the longevity of amenorrhea at 12 months, safety profile, and progression of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Among 88 women, 26 were cirrhotic and 62 were non-cirrhotic. At 1-month post-NovaSure treatment, a significant reduction of mean PBLAC scores was observed in cirrhotic patients compared to those at baseline (0.4 ± 1.3 vs 215.2 ± 410.9, P < 0.001), and the amenorrhea rate was 88.5%. The efficacy outcomes of the PBLAC scores and amenorrhea rate were maintained until the end of the 12-month follow-up. A significant improvement in quality of life scores was observed 1-month post-therapy compared to those at baseline (5.4 ± 3.1 vs 20.5 ± 5.5, P < 0.001). Patients' satisfaction rates were 100% and 92.31% at 6 and 12 months, respectively. The aforementioned outcomes were comparable with those in non-cirrhotic patients. No significant progression of cirrhosis or safety concern was reported.

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients on NovaSure therapy had a high rate of amenorrhea 1-month post-treatment, which maintained longevity for 12 months. The safety profile was similar to that in non-cirrhotic patients.

Recalibrating the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score to Improve Prediction of Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. However, the cutpoints for stratifying laboratory variables in CTP have never been validated.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based cutpoints for the CTP laboratory subscores to improve its predictive capacity for transplant-free survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

DATA SOURCE

Using a cohort of 30,897 cirrhotic US Veteran patients with at least 5 years of follow-up, we performed Cox proportional hazard survival model iterations varying the upper and lower cutpoints for INR, total bilirubin and albumin CTP subscores. Cutpoints yielding the highest Harrell's C-statistics for concordance with transplant-free survival were incorporated into a modified CTP (mCTP) score. Validation of the mCTP was performed at multiple time frames within the follow-up period of the cohort and within subsets defined by disease etiology.

RESULTS

Modification of CTP cutpoints increased the Harrell's C-statistic for age- and gender-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models from 0.701 ± 0.002 to 0.709 ± 0.002 and the risk ratio per unit change from 1.49 (1.48-1.50) to 1.53 (1.52-1.54). The modified cutpoints showed superiority in predicting 5-year transplant-free survival in various disease etiology subgroups. A mCTP substituting serum creatinine for INR performed superiorly for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival.

CONCLUSION

We propose an evidence-based recalibration of CTP score cutpoints that optimizes this model's capacity to predict transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis. The CTP score remains the best predictor of 5-year overall and transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis.