Addressing challenges to rolling out COVID-19 vaccines in African countries

Implementation of a COVID-19 screening tool in a southern Nigerian tertiary health facility

Screening for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in emergency rooms of health facilities during outbreaks prevents nosocomial transmission. However, effective tools adapted for use in African countries are lacking. This study appraised an indigenous screening and triage tool for COVID-19 deployed at the medical emergency room of a Nigerian tertiary facility and determined the predictors of a positive molecular diagnostic test for COVID-19. A cross-sectional study of all patients seen between May and July 2020 at the Accident and Emergency of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital was conducted. Patients with any one of the inputs- presence of COVID-19 symptoms, history of international travel, age 60 years and above, presence of comorbidities and oxygen saturation < 94%- were stratified as high-risk and subjected to molecular testing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Data was obtained from the screening record book patterned after a modified screening tool for COVID-19, deidentified and entered into IBM-SPSS version 25.0. Binary logistic regression was conducted to determine significant predictors of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. The level of significance was set at p < 0.05. In total, 1,624 patients were screened. Mean age (standard deviation) was 53.9±18.0 years and 651 (40.1%) were 60 years and above. One or more symptoms of COVID-19 were present in 586 (36.1%) patients. Overall, 1,116 (68.7%) patients were designated high risk and tested for SARS-CoV-2, of which 359 (32.2%) were positive. Additional inputs, besides symptoms, increased COVID-19 detection by 108%. Predictors of a positive test were elderly age [AOR = 1.545 (1.127-2.116)], co-morbidity [AOR = 1.811 (1.296-2.530)] and oxygen saturation [AOR = 3.427 (2.595-4.528)]. This protocol using additional inputs such as oxygen saturation improved upon symptoms-based screening for COVID-19. Models incorporating identified predictors will be invaluable in resource limited settings.

Tracking the uptake and trajectory of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in 15 West African countries: an interim analysis

The African Union Bureau of Heads of State and Government endorsed the COVID-19 Vaccine Development and Access Strategy to vaccinate at least 60% of each country's population with a safe and efficacious vaccine by 2022, to achieve the population-level immunity needed to bring the pandemic under control. Using publicly available, country-level population estimates and COVID-19 vaccination data, we provide unique insights into the uptake trends of COVID-19 vaccinations in the 15 countries that comprise the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). Based on the vaccination rates in the ECOWAS region after three months of commencing COVID-19 vaccinations, we provide a projection of the trajectory and speed of vaccination needed to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate of at least 60% of the total ECOWAS population. After three months of the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines across the ECOWAS countries, only 0.27% of the region's total population had been fully vaccinated. If ECOWAS countries follow this trajectory, the sub-region will have less than 1.6% of the total population fully vaccinated after 18 months of vaccine deployment. Our projection shows that to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage of at least 60% of the total population in the ECOWAS sub-region after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment; the speed of vaccination must be increased to 10, 7 and 4 times the current trajectory, respectively. West African governments must deploy contextually relevant and culturally acceptable strategies for COVID-19 vaccine procurements, distributions and implementations in order to achieve reasonable coverage and save lives, sooner rather than later.

Implementing national COVID-19 vaccination programmes in sub-Saharan Africa- early lessons from Zimbabwe: a descriptive cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Zimbabwe was one of the first countries to run a national COVID-19 vaccination programme in Africa. Lessons learnt could inform the roll-out of similar programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. To describe the trends of uptake of the COVID-19 vaccines in the first three months (February - May 2021) of the Zimbabwe vaccination programme and the lessons learnt.

METHODS

a secondary descriptive analysis of routinely available COVID-19 vaccination data extracted from the daily situation reports published by the Ministry of Health and Child Care.

RESULTS

in the first three months of the programme, 1 020 078 doses were administered, with 675 678 being first doses and 344 400 were second doses. Using population estimates, at three months, 5.2% of the population had received at least one dose and 2.6% had received the full two doses. Uptake was initially slow, followed by a gradual, and subsequently an exponential increase.

CONCLUSION

by the end of May 2021, Zimbabwe had rolled out one of the largest COVID-19 vaccination programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The uptake followed a pattern and trend that is consistent with vaccine hesitancy reported in the literature, driven by a combination of confidence, complacency and convenience factors. The gradual increase in uptake followed a series of national and local community engagement programmes. The roll-out of similar programmes must recognise likely patterns of uptake across the population and ensure plans are in place to address vaccine hesitancy. The available data did not allow granular analysis to understand the demographics of people who participated in the programme, which is important for surveillance, targeted action, preventing inequalities and ensuring adequate and proportionate protection of residents prioritising the most vulnerable. Further analysis of the process, outcomes and impact of the programme will be helpful in informing the roll-out of similar programmes across Africa.

Drivers of the third wave of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe and challenges for control: perspectives and recommendations

Since the beginning of June 2021, Zimbabwe entered into a harsh third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw an increase in the cumulative number of cases from approximately 38,000 to 120,000 in just two months. This exponential case rise was accompanied by an increase in the absolute number of case fatalities, with a corresponding strain on the public health sector. To effectively inform public health responses, policy and strategy to deal with the current wave and prepare for further waves, we discuss the drivers and challenges of control for this current wave and future waves, and offer practical recommendations. Vaccination will be the most important public health intervention to deal with the spread, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, therefore, efforts to fight vaccine hesitancy and build vaccine confidence and availability will be critical. Similarly, it will be important to build public health sector capacity and resilience to adequately deal with large-scale outbreaks and absorb the shock waves associated with such. Resuscitating and building the economy is an indispensable component of protecting public health. Therefore, collaborative efforts from relevant public health stakeholders, economists, politicians and other players are required to effectively coordinate the necessary responses and formulate the right policies and strategies.

Resource allocation for different types of vaccines against COVID-19: Tradeoffs and synergies between efficacy and reach

Objective

Vaccine shortage and supply-chain challenges have caused limited access by many resource-limited countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the primary decisions for a vaccine-ordering decision-maker is how to allocate the limited resources between different types of vaccines effectively. We studied the tradeoff between efficacy and reach of the two vaccine types that become available at different times.

Methods

We extended a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIR-D) model with vaccination, ran extensive simulations with different settings, and compared the level of infection attack rate (IAR) under different reach ratios between two vaccine types under different resource allocation decisions.

Results

We found that when there were limited resources, allocating resources to a vaccine with high efficacy that became available earlier than a vaccine with lower efficacy did not always lead to a lower IAR, particularly if the former could vaccinate less than 42.5% of the population (with the selected study parameters) who could have received the latter. Sensitivity analyses showed that this result stayed robust under different study parameters.

Conclusions

Our results showed that a vaccine with lower resource requirements (wider reach) can significantly contribute to reducing IAR, even if it becomes available later in the pandemic, compared to a higher efficacy vaccine that becomes available earlier but requires more resources. Limited resource in vaccine distribution is significant challenge in many parts of the world that needs to be addressed to improve the global access to life-saving vaccines. Understanding the tradeoffs between efficacy and reach is critical for resource allocation decisions between different vaccine types for improving health outcomes.

Critical prerequisites for Covid-19 vaccine acceleration: A developing economy perspective

This study aims to explore the critical prerequisites for accelerating the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in developing countries by using Ghana as a case study. A qualitative study method and content analysis approach was used. In-depth interviews were conducted with health experts from the Ghana Health Service, World Health Organization (WHO), AstraZeneca, Novartis, and Medtronic Inc. in Ghana. Our analysis of data revealed that new structures, committees, advisory bodies and lines of communication in government evolved during this pandemic and are underlying the current strategy development and decision-making on COVID-19 vaccines. The interviews gave insights into six major factors that will aid COVID-19 vaccine acceleration in Ghana. These factors are: (1) Access to vaccines through delivery, (2) national manufacturing of vaccines, (3) choosing the best vaccine candidates, (4) financial resources, (5) transparency, and (6) vaccine roll-out and administration. These results could guide policymakers and other relevant stakeholders in prioritizing activities that will aid COVID-19 vaccine acceleration in Ghana and other lower-middle-income countries, tailored to their specific context. As a recommendation, the Ghanaian government should embrace a multisectoral synergy approach to fight the disease. The study also provides insights into how vaccine adoption can be accelerated in the case of future pandemics.

"They have produced a vaccine, but we doubt if COVID-19 exists": correlates of COVID-19 vaccine acceptability among adults in Kano, Nigeria

Vaccination is a critical tool in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has not been well explored in parts of Nigeria. We assessed the predictors of acceptability of the COVID-19 vaccine and identified reasons for vaccine hesitancy among adults in urban Kano, northern Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods design, we administered structured questionnaires to a cross-section of adults (n = 446), complemented with 20 in-depth interviews. Binary logistic regression and the framework approach were used to analyze the data. About one-half (51.1%, n = 228) of the respondents were willing to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine acceptance was higher among older respondents (≥30 years) (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.14-2.99 (≥30 vs. <30), higher-income earners (≥30,000 Naira) (aOR = 2.06, 95%CI:1.12-3.80, ≥30,000 vs. <30,000), and those with a history of a chronic medical disorder (aOR = 1.90, 95%CI:1.06-3.72). Vaccine acceptance was also higher in persons with high risk perception (aOR = 1.61, 95%CI:1.13-2.81, high vs. low), those who were unconcerned about vaccine safety (aOR = 1.71, 95%CI:1.13-3.55), and those who were not worried about efficacy (aOR = 2.02, 95%CI:1.14-4.11) and infertility-related rumors (aOR = 1.98, 95%CI:1.24-3.18). Themes revealed doubts about the existence of COVID-19, mistrust for authorities, and popular credence to rumors and conspiracy theories. In conclusion, COVID-19 vaccine acceptance was sub-optimal and influenced by respondent's age, income, co-morbidities, risk perception, and concerns about vaccine safety, efficacy, and rumors. Context-specific, evidence-based risk communication strategies and trust-building measures could boost vaccine confidence in similar settings.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 on the Heels of Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa

This study utilized modeling and simulation to examine the effectiveness of current and potential future COVID-19 response interventions in the West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. A comparison between simulations can highlight which interventions could have an effect on the pandemic in these countries. An extended compartmental model was used to run simulations incorporating multiple vaccination strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In addition to the customary categories of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) compartments, this COVID-19 model incorporated early and late disease states, isolation, treatment, and death. Lessons learned from the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak-especially the optimization of each country's resource allocation-were incorporated in the presented models. For each country, models were calibrated to an estimated number of infections based on actual reported cases and deaths. Simulations were run to test the potential future effects of vaccination and NPIs. Multiple levels of vaccination were considered, based on announced vaccine allocation plans and notional scenarios. Increased vaccination combined with NPI mitigation strategies resulted in thousands of fewer COVID-19 infections in each country. This study demonstrates the importance of increased vaccinations. The levels of vaccination in this study would require substantial increases in vaccination supplies obtained through national purchases or international aid. While this study does not aim to develop a model that predicts the future, it can provide useful information for decision-makers in low- and middle-income nations. Such information can be used to prioritize and optimize limited available resources for targeted interventions that will have the greatest impact on COVID-19 pandemic response.

Factors Associated with COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions in Eastern Zimbabwe: A Cross-Sectional Study

Vaccines are one of the most effective public health strategies to protect against infectious diseases, yet vaccine hesitancy has emerged as a global health threat. Understanding COVID-19 knowledge and attitudes and their association with vaccine intentions can help the targeting of strategies to increase vaccination uptake and achieve herd immunity. The goal of this study was to assess COVID-19 knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors, and identify factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine intentions among heads of households in Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in May 2021 among 551 randomly selected households. Data were collected on socio-demographic characteristics, and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding COVID-19 and the vaccines. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported intending to vaccinate themselves or their households. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that the likelihood of vaccine intentions was most strongly associated with confidence in vaccine safety. Additionally, the odds of intending to get vaccinated were significantly higher among heads of households who were male, had a higher level of education, and identified vaccination and face mask usage as prevention measures. Among perceived motivators to vaccinate, recommendations from the World Health Organization and availability of the vaccine free of charge increased the likelihood of vaccine intentions, while country of vaccine manufacturer posed a barrier to vaccine intentions. As the vaccine rollout in Zimbabwe continues, efforts to increase COVID-19 vaccination coverage and achieve herd immunity should target females and less educated populations and be tailored to address concerns about vaccine safety and country of manufacturer.

What Demographic, Social, and Contextual Factors Influence the Intention to Use COVID-19 Vaccines: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 crisis, an apparent growth in vaccine hesitancy has been noticed due to different factors and reasons. Therefore, this scoping review was performed to determine the prevalence of intention to use COVID-19 vaccines among adults aged 18-60, and to identify the demographic, social, and contextual factors that influence the intention to use COVID-19 vaccines.

METHODS

This scoping review was conducted by using the methodological framework for scoping review outlined by Arksey and O'Malley. A search strategy was carried out on four electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. All peer-reviewed articles published between November 2019 and December 2020 were reviewed. Data were extracted to identify the prevalence of, and factors that influence, the intention to use COVID-19 vaccines.

RESULTS

A total of 48 relevant articles were identified for inclusion in the review. Outcomes presented fell into seven themes: demographics, social factors, vaccination beliefs and attitudes, vaccine-related perceptions, health-related perceptions, perceived barriers, and vaccine recommendations. Age, gender, education level, race/ethnicity, vaccine safety and effectiveness, influenza vaccination history, and self-protection from COVID-19 were the most prominent factors associated with intention to use COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, the majority of studies (n = 34/48) reported a relatively high prevalence of intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19, with a range from 60% to 93%.

CONCLUSION

This scoping review enables the creation of demographic, social, and contextual constructs associated with intention to vaccinate among the adult population. These factors are likely to play a major role in any targeted vaccination programs, particularly COVID-19 vaccination. Thus, our review suggests focusing on the development of strategies to promote the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and to overcome vaccine hesitancy and refusal. These strategies could include transparent communication, social media engagement, and the initiation of education programs.

Assessing the Level and Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Confidence in Kenya

The government of Kenya has launched a phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccination. A major barrier is vaccine hesitancy; the refusal or delay of accepting vaccination. This study evaluated the level and determinants of vaccine hesitancy in Kenya. We conducted a cross-sectional study administered through a phone-based survey in February 2021 in four counties of Kenya. Multilevel logistic regression was used to identify individual perceived risks and influences, context-specific factors and vaccine-specific issues associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Kenya was high: 36.5%. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included: Rural regions, perceived difficulty in adhering to government regulations on COVID-19 prevention, no perceived COVID-19 infection risk, concerns regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness, and religious and cultural reasons. There is a need for the prioritization of interventions to address vaccine hesitancy and improve vaccine confidence as part of the vaccine roll-out plan. These messaging and/or interventions should be holistic to include the value of other public health measures, be focused and targeted to specific groups, raise awareness on the risks of COVID-19 and effectively communicate the benefits and risks of vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 in Zimbabwe: milestones and challenges faced towards achieving the expected 60% herd immunity

In response to COVID-19 pandemic, the Zimbabwe government put in place various rigorous measures to curb the spread of the virus. Although roll-out and access to COVID-19 vaccines in Africa have been slow, the World Health Organization (WHO)-led COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) consortium and the African vaccine acquisition task team are striving to provide 720 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to achieve 60% coverage in Africa by June, 2022. In line with this, the Zimbabwe vaccination programme commenced on the 26th February 2021 and as of 9th June 2021, approximately, 2.6% of the population have been fully vaccinated in the country. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has crippled the economy and caused significant strain on the public health system, much has been done in the country since the first case was recorded (20th March 2020). However, much more needs to be done to finally reach the expected 60% herd immunity by June 2022.

Assessing efficacy of antiviral therapy for COVID-19 patients: A case study on remdesivir with bayesian synthesis design and multistate analysis

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

A synthesis design and multistate analysis is required for assessing the clinical efficacy of antiviral therapy on dynamics of multistate disease progression and in reducing the mortality and enhancing the recovery of patients with COVID-19. A case study on remdesivir was illustrated for the clinical application of such a novel design and analysis.

METHODS

A Bayesian synthesis design was applied to integrating the empirical evidence on the one-arm compassion study and the two-arm ACTT-1 trial for COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir. A multistate model was developed to model the dynamics of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from three transient states of low, medium-, and high-risk until the two outcomes of recovery and death. The outcome measures for clinical efficacy comprised high-risk state, death, and discharge.

RESULTS

The efficacy of remdesivir in reducing the risk of death and enhancing the odds of recovery were estimated as 31% (95% CI, 18-44%) and 10% (95% CI, 1-18%), respectively. Remdesivir therapy for patients with low-risk state showed the efficacy in reducing subsequent progression to high-risk state and death by 26% (relative rate (RR), 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.93) and 62% (RR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.29-0.48), respectively. Less but still statistically significant efficacy in mortality reduction was noted for the medium- and high-risk patients. Remdesivir treated patients had a significantly shorter period of hospitalization (9.9 days) compared with standard care group (12.9 days).

CONCLUSION

The clinical efficacy of remdesvir therapy in reducing mortality and accelerating discharge has been proved by the Bayesian synthesis design and multistate analysis.

Vaccination hesitancy among women of reproductive age in resource-challenged settings: a cause for public health concern

Women of reproductive age are a key population for the control of COVID-19 owing to their levels of socio-economic activities and central role in the upkeep of stable families. Therefore, adequate vaccination uptake in this population is critical. However, this may be negatively affected by circulating rumours regarding SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and subfertility and pregnancy and breastfeeding concerns that have circulated widely on diverse social media. Urgent public health interventions are required to deal with vaccination hesitancy and promote uptake in this key population. This calls for concerted, multidisciplinary and multistakeholder consultative public health forums, public health research and action in the shortest possible period.