Deep-sea diversity patterns are shaped by energy availability

The Anticancer Drug Discovery Potential of Marine Invertebrates from Russian Pacific

Despite huge efforts by academia and pharmaceutical industry, cancer remains the second cause of disease-related death in developed countries. Novel sources and principles of anticancer drug discovery are in urgent demand. Marine-derived natural products represent a largely untapped source of future drug candidates. This review focuses on the anticancer drug discovery potential of marine invertebrates from the North-West Pacific. The issues of biodiversity, chemodiversity, and the anticancer pharmacophore diversity this region hides are consecutively discussed. These three levels of diversity are analyzed from the point of view of the already discovered compounds, as well as from the assessment of the overall, still undiscovered and enormous potential. We further go into the predictions of the economic and societal benefits the full-scale exploration of this potential offers, and suggest strategic measures to be taken on the national level in order to unleash such full-scale exploration. The transversal and multi-discipline approach we attempt to build for the case of marine invertebrate-based anticancer drug discovery from a given region can be applied to other regions and disease conditions, as well as up-scaled to global dimensions.

Persistent and substantial impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on deep-sea megafauna

The Deepwater Horizon spill is one of the largest environmental disasters with extensive impacts on the economic and ecological health of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface oil and coastal impacts received considerable attention, but the far larger oil spill in the deep ocean and its effects received considerably less examination. Based on 2017 ROV surveys within 500 m of the wellhead, we provide evidence of continued impacts on diversity, abundance and health of deep-sea megafauna. At locations proximal to the wellhead, megafaunal communities are more homogeneous than in unimpacted areas, lacking many taxonomic groups, and driven by high densities of arthropods. Degraded hydrocarbons at the site may be attracting arthropods. The scope of impacts may extend beyond the impacted sites with the potential for impacts to pelagic food webs and commercially important species. Overall, deep-sea ecosystem health, 7 years post spill, is recovering slowly and lingering effects may be extreme.

Latitudinal and bathymetrical species richness patterns in the NW Pacific and adjacent Arctic Ocean

Global scale analyses have recently revealed that the latitudinal gradient in marine species richness is bimodal, peaking at low-mid latitudes but with a dip at the equator; and that marine species richness decreases with depth in many taxa. However, these overall and independently studied patterns may conceal regional differences that help support or qualify the causes in these gradients. Here, we analysed both latitudinal and depth gradients of species richness in the NW Pacific and its adjacent Arctic Ocean. We analysed 324,916 distribution records of 17,414 species from 0 to 10,900 m depth, latitude 0 to 90°N, and longitude 100 to 180°N. Species richness per c. 50 000 km² hexagonal cells was calculated as alpha (local average), gamma (regional total) and ES50 (estimated species for 50 records) per latitudinal band and depth interval. We found that average ES50 and gamma species richness decreased per 5° latitudinal bands and 100 m depth intervals. However, average ES50 per hexagon showed that the highest species richness peaked around depth 2,000 m where the highest total number of species recorded. Most (83%) species occurred in shallow depths (0 to 500 m). The area around Bohol Island in the Philippines had the highest alpha species richness (more than 8,000 species per 50,000 km²). Both alpha and gamma diversity trends increased from the equator to latitude 10°N, then further decreased, but reached another peak at higher latitudes. The latitudes 60–70°N had the lowest gamma and alpha diversity where there is almost no ocean in our study area. Model selection on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) showed that the combined effects of all environmental predictors produced the best model driving species richness in both shallow and deep sea. The results thus support recent hypotheses that biodiversity, while highest in the tropics and coastal depths, is decreasing at the equator and decreases with depth below ~2000 m. While we do find the declines of species richness with latitude and depth that reflect temperature gradients, local scale richness proved poorly correlated with many environmental variables. This demonstrates that while regional scale patterns in species richness may be related to temperature, that local scale richness depends on a greater variety of variables.

Deep-water fisheries along the British Isles continental slopes: status, ecosystem effects and future perspectives

In this paper, we revisit the state of deep-water fisheries to the west of the British Isles and aim to provide an overview on the key drivers behind community changes along continental margins. The deep-water fisheries to the west of the British Isles that extend from the shelf-slope break down to the lower slope and along banks and seamounts of the Rockall Basin, mainly target blue ling Molva dypterygia, roundnose grenadier Coryphaenoides rupestris, orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus, with by-catches of black scabbardfish Aphanopus carbo and tusk Brosme brosme. These fishing grounds experienced a long period of exhaustive exploitation until the early 2000s, but subsequently the implementation of management strategies has helped to relieve excessive fishing pressure. It is widely accepted that a better understanding of the long-term implications of disturbance is needed to understand patterns in deep-water communities and what sustainable use and exploitation of resources might look like in this context.

The Temporal and Environmental Context of Early Animal Evolution: Considering All the Ingredients of an "Explosion"

Animals originated and evolved during a unique time in Earth history-the Neoproterozoic Era. This paper aims to discuss (1) when landmark events in early animal evolution occurred, and (2) the environmental context of these evolutionary milestones, and how such factors may have affected ecosystems and body plans. With respect to timing, molecular clock studies-utilizing a diversity of methodologies-agree that animal multicellularity had arisen by ∼800 million years ago (Ma) (Tonian period), the bilaterian body plan by ∼650 Ma (Cryogenian), and divergences between sister phyla occurred ∼560-540 Ma (late Ediacaran). Most purported Tonian and Cryogenian animal body fossils are unlikely to be correctly identified, but independent support for the presence of pre-Ediacaran animals is recorded by organic geochemical biomarkers produced by demosponges. This view of animal origins contrasts with data from the fossil record, and the taphonomic question of why animals were not preserved (if present) remains unresolved. Neoproterozoic environments demanding small, thin, body plans, and lower abundance/rarity in populations may have played a role. Considering environmental conditions, geochemical data suggest that animals evolved in a relatively low-oxygen ocean. Here, we present new analyses of sedimentary total organic carbon contents in shales suggesting that the Neoproterozoic ocean may also have had lower primary productivity-or at least lower quantities of organic carbon reaching the seafloor-compared with the Phanerozoic. Indeed, recent modeling efforts suggest that low primary productivity is an expected corollary of a low-O2 world. Combined with an inability to inhabit productive regions in a low-O2 ocean, earliest animal communities would likely have been more food limited than generally appreciated, impacting both ecosystem structure and organismal behavior. In light of this, we propose the "fire triangle" metaphor for environmental influences on early animal evolution. Moving toward consideration of all environmental aspects of the Cambrian radiation (fuel, heat, and oxidant) will ultimately lead to a more holistic view of the event.

Contrasting processes drive ophiuroid phylodiversity across shallow and deep seafloors

Our knowledge of the distribution and evolution of deep-sea life is limited, impeding our ability to identify priority areas for conservation¹. Here we analyse large integrated phylogenomic and distributional datasets of seafloor fauna from the sea surface to the abyss and from equator to pole of the Southern Hemisphere for an entire class of invertebrates (Ophiuroidea). We find that latitudinal diversity gradients are assembled through contrasting evolutionary processes for shallow (0-200 m) and deep (>200 m) seas. The shallow-water tropical-temperate realm broadly reflects a tropical diversification-driven process that shows exchange of lineages in both directions. Diversification rates are reversed for the realm that contains the deep sea and Antarctica; the diversification rates are highest at polar and lowest at tropical latitudes, and net exchange occurs from high to low latitudes. The tropical upper bathyal (200-700 m deep), with its rich ancient phylodiversity, is characterized by relatively low diversification and moderate immigration rates. Conversely, the young, specialized Antarctic fauna is inferred to be rebounding from regional extinctions that are associated with the rapid cooling of polar waters during the mid-Cenozoic era.

Inferring species richness using multispecies occupancy modeling: Estimation performance and interpretation

Multispecies occupancy models can estimate species richness from spatially replicated multispecies detection/non-detection survey data, while accounting for imperfect detection. A model extension using data augmentation allows inferring the total number of species in the community, including those completely missed by sampling (i.e., not detected in any survey, at any site). Here we investigate the robustness of these estimates. We review key model assumptions and test performance via simulations, under a range of scenarios of species characteristics and sampling regimes, exploring sensitivity to the Bayesian priors used for model fitting. We run tests when assumptions are perfectly met and when violated. We apply the model to a real dataset and contrast estimates obtained with and without predictors, and for different subsets of data. We find that, even with model assumptions perfectly met, estimation of the total number of species can be poor in scenarios where many species are missed (>15%-20%) and that commonly used priors can accentuate overestimation. Our tests show that estimation can often be robust to violations of assumptions about the statistical distributions describing variation of occupancy and detectability among species, but lower-tail deviations can result in large biases. We obtain substantially different estimates from alternative analyses of our real dataset, with results suggesting that missing relevant predictors in the model can result in richness underestimation. In summary, estimates of total richness are sensitive to model structure and often uncertain. Appropriate selection of priors, testing of assumptions, and model refinement are all important to enhance estimator performance. Yet, these do not guarantee accurate estimation, particularly when many species remain undetected. While statistical models can provide useful insights, expectations about accuracy in this challenging prediction task should be realistic. Where knowledge about species numbers is considered truly critical for management or policy, survey effort should ideally be such that the chances of missing species altogether are low.

Benthic biogeographic patterns in the southern Australian deep sea: Do historical museum records accord with recent systematic, but spatially limited, survey data?

AIM

To document biogeographic patterns in the deepwater benthic epifauna and demersal fishes of southern Australia, and determine whether museum records and systematic survey data provide matching results.

LOCATION

Southern Australian (32-44oS) continental slope (200-3,000 m deep).

TAXON

Marine benthic fauna (Arthropoda, Bryozoa, Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Mollusca, Porifera, Sipuncula, and fishes).

METHODS

All available electronic records of fauna from the above taxa and ≥200 m depth off the southern Australian coastline, regardless of organism size, were collated from Australian museums and checked for geographic and taxonomic consistency. These records were then split into 40 geographic segments of roughly equal numbers, with each segment then treated as a sample in multivariate analyses of assemblage composition. Data from a recent (2015) systematic beam trawl survey along five north-south transects in the central Great Australian Bight were also included for comparison.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The systematic survey data grouped with the associated geographic segments despite differences in sampling technique (single gear compared to multiple gears), with subsequent differences in taxonomic biases, and the use of a 25 mm mesh, which would undersample some smaller organisms present in the museum data. Thus, the museum data and the survey data provided the same results for the central Great Australian Bight at the level of the whole assemblage. The main biogeographic break occurred off southeastern Tasmania, with a second substantial break occurring at around the border between New South Wales and Victoria. This indicates the potential for unused museum data to describe biogeographic patterns over regional spatial scales, especially in the deep sea where the expense of collecting new data is relatively high.

Complete mitochondrial genome of Benthodytes marianensis (Holothuroidea: Elasipodida: Psychropotidae): Insight into deep sea adaptation in the sea cucumber

Complete mitochondrial genomes play important roles in studying genome evolution, phylogenetic relationships, and species identification. Sea cucumbers (Holothuroidea) are ecologically important and diverse members, living from the shallow waters to the hadal trench. In this study, we present the mitochondrial genome sequence of the sea cucumber Benthodytes marianensis collected from the Mariana Trench. To our knowledge, this is the first reported mitochondrial genome from the genus Benthodytes. This complete mitochondrial genome is 17567 bp in length and consists of 13 protein-coding genes, two ribosomal RNA genes and 22 transfer RNA genes (duplication of two tRNAs: trnL and trnS). Most of these genes are coded on the positive strand except for one protein-coding gene (nad6) and five tRNA genes which are coded on the negative strand. Two putative control regions (CRs) have been found in the B. marianensis mitogenome. We compared the order of genes from the 10 available holothurian mitogenomes and found a novel gene arrangement in B. marianensis. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that B. marianensis clustered with Peniagone sp. YYH-2013, forming the deep-sea Elasipodida clade. Positive selection analysis showed that eleven residues (24 S, 45 S, 185 S, 201 G, 211 F and 313 N in nad2; 108 S, 114 S, 322 C, 400 T and 427 S in nad4) were positively selected sites with high posterior probabilities. We predict that nad2 and nad4 may be the important candidate genes for the further investigation of the adaptation of B. marianensis to the deep-sea environment.

Mapping knowledge gaps in marine diversity reveals a latitudinal gradient of missing species richness

A reliable description of any spatial pattern in species richness requires accurate knowledge about species geographical distribution. However, sampling bias may generate artefactual absences within species range and compromise our capacity to describe biodiversity patterns. Here, we analysed the spatial distribution of 35,000 marine species (varying from copepods to sharks) to identify missing occurrences (gaps) across their latitudinal range. We find a latitudinal gradient of species absence peaking near the equator, a pattern observed in both shallow and deep waters. The tropical gap in species distribution seems a consequence of reduced sampling effort at low latitudes. Overall, our results suggest that spatial gaps in species distribution are the main cause of the bimodal pattern of marine diversity. Therefore, only increasing sampling effort at low latitudes will reveal if the absence of species in the tropics, and the consequent dip in species richness, are artefacts of sampling bias or a natural phenomenon.

Accurate understanding of species biogeographic patterns is contingent upon adequate sampling effort across space. Here, the authors analyse the distribution records for 35,000 marine species, highlighting data gaps caused by undersampling in the tropics.

An evaluation of the error and uncertainty in epibenthos cover estimates from AUV images collected with an efficient, spatially-balanced design

Efficient monitoring of organisms is at the foundation of protected area and biodiversity management. Such monitoring programs are based on a systematically selected set of survey locations that, while able to track trends at those locations through time, lack inference for the overall region being "monitored". Advances in spatially-balanced sampling approaches offer alternatives but remain largely untested in marine ecosystems. This study evaluated the merit of using a two-stage, spatially-balanced survey framework, in conjunction with generalized additive models, to estimate epifauna cover at a reef-wide scale for mesophotic reefs within a large, cross-shelf marine park. Imagery acquired by an autonomous underwater vehicle was classified using a hierarchical scheme developed under the Collaborative and Automated Tools for Analysis of Marine Imagery (CATAMI). At a realistic image subsampling intensity, the two-stage, spatially-balanced framework provided accurate and precise estimates of reef-wide cover for a select number of epifaunal classes at the coarsest CATAMI levels, in particular bryozoan and porifera classes. However, at finer hierarchical levels, accuracy and/or precision of cover estimates declined, primarily because of the natural rarity of even the most common of these classes/morphospecies. Ranked predictor importance suggested that bathymetry, backscatter and derivative terrain variables calculated at their smallest analysis window scales (i.e. 81 m2) were generally the most important variables in the modeling of reef-wide cover. This study makes an important step in identifying the constraints and limitations that can be identified through a robust statistical approach to design and analysis. The two-stage, spatially-balanced framework has great potential for effective quantification of epifaunal cover in cross-shelf mesophotic reefs. However, greater image subsampling intensity than traditionally applied is required to ensure adequate observations for finer-level CATAMI classes and associated morphospecies.

Variation in species diversity of deep-water megafauna assemblages in the Caribbean across depth and ecoregions

Diversity patterns of the deep-sea megafauna in the Caribbean Basin and the Guiana ecoregion were analyzed in order to test the hypothesis of species richness variation as a function of depth and the hypothesis of non-differences between ecoregions by analyzing spatial patterns of five taxa and a merged assemblage. Collections of five taxa (corals, sea stars, sea urchins, sea lilies and gastropods) were obtained from seven oceanographic expeditions aboard the R/V Pillsbury at 310 stations between 60 and 7500 m depth. Data were sorted according to depth zones and ecoregions and were analyzed in order to estimate species richness, changes in species composition and distinction of β-diversity by species turnover or by nestedness. The observed patterns of diversity were consistent between taxa and their assemblage: Species richness increased from the continental shelf (60-200 m deep) to the slope (200-2000 m deep), followed by a decrease at the continental rise-abyssal zone. We detected marked changes in species composition according to depth ranges. Changes in species composition in relation to ecoregions were also detected. In general, the Caribbean Basin lacks important physical barriers, causing high deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; however, variation in composition could be related to changes in environmental conditions associated with productivity and/or continental influences.

A strategy for the conservation of biodiversity on mid-ocean ridges from deep-sea mining

Mineral exploitation has spread from land to shallow coastal waters and is now planned for the offshore, deep seabed. Large seafloor areas are being approved for exploration for seafloor mineral deposits, creating an urgent need for regional environmental management plans. Networks of areas where mining and mining impacts are prohibited are key elements of these plans. We adapt marine reserve design principles to the distinctive biophysical environment of mid-ocean ridges, offer a framework for design and evaluation of these networks to support conservation of benthic ecosystems on mid-ocean ridges, and introduce projected climate-induced changes in the deep sea to the evaluation of reserve design. We enumerate a suite of metrics to measure network performance against conservation targets and network design criteria promulgated by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We apply these metrics to network scenarios on the northern and equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where contractors are exploring for seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) deposits. A latitudinally distributed network of areas performs well at (i) capturing ecologically important areas and 30 to 50% of the spreading ridge areas, (ii) replicating representative areas, (iii) maintaining along-ridge population connectivity, and (iv) protecting areas potentially less affected by climate-related changes. Critically, the network design is adaptive, allowing for refinement based on new knowledge and the location of mining sites, provided that design principles and conservation targets are maintained. This framework can be applied along the global mid-ocean ridge system as a precautionary measure to protect biodiversity and ecosystem function from impacts of SMS mining.

Metabolic costs imposed by hydrostatic pressure constrain bathymetric range in the lithodid crab Lithodes maja

The changing climate is shifting the distributions of marine species, yet the potential for shifts in depth distributions is virtually unexplored. Hydrostatic pressure is proposed to contribute to a physiological bottleneck constraining depth range extension in shallow-water taxa. However, bathymetric limitation by hydrostatic pressure remains undemonstrated, and the mechanism limiting hyperbaric tolerance remains hypothetical. Here, we assess the effects of hydrostatic pressure in the lithodid crab Lithodes maja (bathymetric range 4-790 m depth, approximately equivalent to 0.1 to 7.9 MPa hydrostatic pressure). Heart rate decreased with increasing hydrostatic pressure, and was significantly lower at ≥10.0 MPa than at 0.1 MPa. Oxygen consumption increased with increasing hydrostatic pressure to 12.5 MPa, before decreasing as hydrostatic pressure increased to 20.0 MPa; oxygen consumption was significantly higher at 7.5-17.5 MPa than at 0.1 MPa. Increases in expression of genes associated with neurotransmission, metabolism and stress were observed between 7.5 and 12.5 MPa. We suggest that hyperbaric tolerance in Lmaja may be oxygen-limited by hyperbaric effects on heart rate and metabolic rate, but that Lmaja's bathymetric range is limited by metabolic costs imposed by the effects of high hydrostatic pressure. These results advocate including hydrostatic pressure in a complex model of environmental tolerance, where energy limitation constrains biogeographic range, and facilitate the incorporation of hydrostatic pressure into the broader metabolic framework for ecology and evolution. Such an approach is crucial for accurately projecting biogeographic responses to changing climate, and for understanding the ecology and evolution of life at depth.

Metabolic rates are significantly lower in abyssal Holothuroidea than in shallow-water Holothuroidea

Recent analyses of metabolic rates in fishes, echinoderms, crustaceans and cephalopods have concluded that bathymetric declines in temperature- and mass-normalized metabolic rate do not result from resource-limitation (e.g. oxygen or food/chemical energy), decreasing temperature or increasing hydrostatic pressure. Instead, based on contrasting bathymetric patterns reported in the metabolic rates of visual and non-visual taxa, declining metabolic rate with depth is proposed to result from relaxation of selection for high locomotory capacity in visual predators as light diminishes. Here, we present metabolic rates of Holothuroidea, a non-visual benthic and benthopelagic echinoderm class, determined in situ at abyssal depths (greater than 4000 m depth). Mean temperature- and mass-normalized metabolic rate did not differ significantly between shallow-water (less than 200 m depth) and bathyal (200-4000 m depth) holothurians, but was significantly lower in abyssal (greater than 4000 m depth) holothurians than in shallow-water holothurians. These results support the dominance of the visual interactions hypothesis at bathyal depths, but indicate that ecological or evolutionary pressures other than biotic visual interactions contribute to bathymetric variation in holothurian metabolic rates. Multiple nonlinear regression assuming power or exponential models indicates that in situ hydrostatic pressure and/or food/chemical energy availability are responsible for variation in holothurian metabolic rates. Consequently, these results have implications for modelling deep-sea energetics and processes.

Increased energy differentially increases richness and abundance of optimal body sizes in deep-sea wood falls

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that the total energy available in natural communities influences body size as well as patterns of abundance and diversity. But the precise mechanisms underlying these relationships or how these three ecological properties relate remain elusive. We identify five hypotheses relating energy availability, body size distributions, abundance, and species richness within communities, and we use experimental deep-sea wood fall communities to test their predicted effects both on descriptors describing the species-richness-body-size distribution, and on trends in species richness within size classes over an energy gradient (size-class-richness relationships). Invertebrate communities were taxonomically identified, weighed, and counted from 32 Acacia sp. logs ranging in size from 0.6 to 20.6 kg (corresponding to different levels of energy available), which were deployed at 3,203 m in the Northeast Pacific Ocean for 5 and 7 yr. Trends in both the species-richness-body-size distribution and the size-class-richness distribution with increasing wood fall size provide support for the Increased Packing hypothesis: species richness increases with increasing wood fall size but only in the modal size class. Furthermore, species richness of body size classes reflected the abundance of individuals in that size class. Thus, increases in richness in the modal size class with increasing energy were concordant with increases in abundance within that size class. The results suggest that increases in species richness occurring as energy availability increases may be isolated to specific niches, e.g., the body size classes, especially in communities developing on discrete and energetically isolated resources such as deep sea wood falls.

Invertebrate population genetics across Earth's largest habitat: The deep-sea floor

Despite the deep sea being the largest habitat on Earth, there are just 77 population genetic studies of invertebrates (115 species) inhabiting non-chemosynthetic ecosystems on the deep-sea floor (below 200 m depth). We review and synthesize the results of these papers. Studies reveal levels of genetic diversity comparable to shallow-water species. Generally, populations at similar depths were well connected over 100s-1,000s km, but studies that sampled across depth ranges reveal population structure at much smaller scales (100s-1,000s m) consistent with isolation by adaptation across environmental gradients, or the existence of physical barriers to connectivity with depth. Few studies were ocean-wide (under 4%), and 48% were Atlantic-focused. There is strong emphasis on megafauna and commercial species with research into meiofauna, "ecosystem engineers" and other ecologically important species lacking. Only nine papers account for ~50% of the planet's surface (depths below 3,500 m). Just two species were studied below 5,000 m, a quarter of Earth's seafloor. Most studies used single-locus mitochondrial genes revealing a common pattern of non-neutrality, consistent with demographic instability or selective sweeps; similar to deep-sea hydrothermal vent fauna. The absence of a clear difference between vent and non-vent could signify that demographic instability is common in the deep sea, or that selective sweeps render single-locus mitochondrial studies demographically uninformative. The number of population genetics studies to date is miniscule in relation to the size of the deep sea. The paucity of studies constrains meta-analyses where broad inferences about deep-sea ecology could be made.

The importance of offshore origination revealed through ophiuroid phylogenomics

Our knowledge of macro-evolutionary processes in the deep sea is poor, leading to much speculation about whether the deep sea is a source or sink of evolutionary adaptation. Here, we use a phylogenetic approach, on large molecular (688 species, 275 kbp) and distributional datasets (104 513 records) across an entire class of marine invertebrates (Ophiuroidea), to infer rates of bathymetric range shift over time between shallow and deep water biomes. Biome conservation is evident through the phylogeny, with the majority of species in most clades distributed within the same bathome. Despite this, bathymetric shifts have occurred. We inferred from ancestral reconstructions that eurybathic or intermediate distributions across both biomes were a transitional state and direct changes between shallow and deep sea did not occur. The macro-evolutionary pattern of bathome shift appeared to reflect micro-evolutionary processes of bathymetric speciation. Results suggest that most of the oldest clades have a deep-sea origin, but multiple colonization events indicate that the evolution of this group conforms neither to a simple onshore-offshore hypothesis, nor the opposite pattern. Both shallow and deep bathomes have played an important role in generating the current diversity of this major benthic class.

Probabilistic models of species discovery and biodiversity comparisons

Inferring large-scale processes that drive biodiversity hinges on understanding the phylogenetic and spatial pattern of species richness. However, clades and geographic regions are accumulating newly described species at an uneven rate, potentially affecting the stability of currently observed diversity patterns. Here, we present a probabilistic model of species discovery to assess the uncertainty in diversity levels among clades and regions. We use a Bayesian time series regression to estimate the long-term trend in the rate of species description for marine bivalves and find a distinct spatial bias in the accumulation of new species. Despite these biases, probabilistic estimates of future species richness show considerable stability in the currently observed rank order of regional diversity. However, absolute differences in richness are still likely to change, potentially modifying the correlation between species numbers and geographic, environmental, and biological factors thought to promote biodiversity. Applied to scallops and related clades, we find that accumulating knowledge of deep-sea species will likely shift the relative richness of these three families, emphasizing the need to consider the incomplete nature of bivalve taxonomy in quantitative studies of its diversity. Along with estimating expected changes to observed patterns of diversity, the model described in this paper pinpoints geographic areas and clades most urgently requiring additional systematic study-an important practice for building more complete and accurate models of biodiversity dynamics that can inform ecological and evolutionary theory and improve conservation practice.