The evolution of epidemic influenza

Quantifying T Cell Cross-Reactivity: Influenza and Coronaviruses

If viral strains are sufficiently similar in their immunodominant epitopes, then populations of cross-reactive T cells may be boosted by exposure to one strain and provide protection against infection by another at a later date. This type of pre-existing immunity may be important in the adaptive immune response to influenza and to coronaviruses. Patterns of recognition of epitopes by T cell clonotypes (a set of cells sharing the same T cell receptor) are represented as edges on a bipartite network. We describe different methods of constructing bipartite networks that exhibit cross-reactivity, and the dynamics of the T cell repertoire in conditions of homeostasis, infection and re-infection. Cross-reactivity may arise simply by chance, or because immunodominant epitopes of different strains are structurally similar. We introduce a circular space of epitopes, so that T cell cross-reactivity is a quantitative measure of the overlap between clonotypes that recognize similar (that is, close in epitope space) epitopes.

Inference of population genetic parameters from an irregular time series of seasonal influenza virus sequences

Basic summary statistics that quantify the population genetic structure of influenza virus are important for understanding and inferring the evolutionary and epidemiological processes. However, the sampling dates of global virus sequences in the last several decades are scattered nonuniformly throughout the calendar. Such temporal structure of samples and the small effective size of viral population hampers the use of conventional methods to calculate summary statistics. Here, we define statistics that overcome this problem by correcting for the sampling-time difference in quantifying a pairwise sequence difference. A simple linear regression method jointly estimates the mutation rate and the level of sequence polymorphism, thus providing an estimate of the effective population size. It also leads to the definition of Wright's FST for arbitrary time-series data. Furthermore, as an alternative to Tajima's D statistic or the site-frequency spectrum, a mismatch distribution corrected for sampling-time differences can be obtained and compared between actual and simulated data. Application of these methods to seasonal influenza A/H3N2 viruses sampled between 1980 and 2017 and sequences simulated under the model of recurrent positive selection with metapopulation dynamics allowed us to estimate the synonymous mutation rate and find parameter values for selection and demographic structure that fit the observation. We found that the mutation rates of HA and PB1 segments before 2007 were particularly high and that including recurrent positive selection in our model was essential for the genealogical structure of the HA segment. Methods developed here can be generally applied to population genetic inferences using serially sampled genetic data.

Evaluation of the added value of viral genomic information for predicting severity of influenza infection

BACKGROUND

The severity of an influenza infection is influenced by both host and viral characteristics. This study aims to assess the relevance of viral genomic data for the prediction of severe influenza A(H3N2) infections among patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), in view of risk assessment and patient management.

METHODS

160 A(H3N2) influenza positive samples from the 2016-2017 season originating from the Belgian SARI surveillance were selected for whole genome sequencing. Predictor variables for severity were selected using a penalized elastic net logistic regression model from a combined host and genomic dataset, including patient information and nucleotide mutations identified in the viral genome. The goodness-of-fit of the model combining host and genomic data was compared using a likelihood-ratio test with the model including host data only. Internal validation of model discrimination was conducted by calculating the optimism-adjusted area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for both models.

RESULTS

The model including viral mutations in addition to the host characteristics had an improved fit ([Formula: see text]=12.03, df = 3, p = 0.007). The optimism-adjusted AUC increased from 0.671 to 0.732.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding genomic data (selected season-specific mutations in the viral genome) to the model containing host characteristics improved the prediction of severe influenza infection among hospitalized SARI patients, thereby offering the potential for translation into a prospective strategy to perform early season risk assessment or to guide individual patient management.

Novel TLR4 adjuvant elicits protection against homologous and heterologous Influenza A infection

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a leading cause of respiratory disease worldwide often resulting in hospitalization or death. In this study, TLR4 immunostimulatory molecules, Bacterial Enzymatic Combinatorial Chemistry (BECC) 438 and BECC470 were found to be superior IAV vaccine adjuvants when compared to the classic adjuvant alhydrogel (alum) and Phosphorylated Hexa-Acyl Disaccharide (PHAD), a synthetic TLR4 agonist. BECC molecules allow for antigen sparing of a recombinant HA (rHA) protein, elicit a more balanced IgG1/IgG2a response, and were protective in a prime only dosing schedule. Importantly, BECC molecules afford protection from a heterologous IAV strain demonstrating that a cross-protective influenza vaccine is possible when the antigen is effectively adjuvanted.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Seasonal burden of severe influenza virus infection in the critically ill patients, using the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris clinical data warehouse: a pilot study

Purpose

At the critical care level, the flu surveillance system is limited in France, with heterogeneous regional modalities of implementation.

Materials, patients and methods

We aimed at assessing the relevance of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) clinical data warehouse for estimating the burden of the influenza epidemic on medical adult critical care units of the AP-HP, and outcome of patients during the flu season 2017–2018. This exploratory multi-site epidemiological study comprised all consecutive adult stays (n = 320) in 18 medical intensive care units (ICU) or intermediate care wards (ICW) for probable or confirmed Influenza virus infection during the 2017–2018 flu season.

Results

Patients admitted to ICU/ICW had low vaccination coverage (21%), required life support in 60% of cases, stayed in the ICU for a median of 8 days, and had high 28-day mortality rate (19.7%; 95% confidence interval 15.5–24.5). Early prognostic factors included age, core temperature, the acute organ failures score, and the early administration of antiviral therapy.

Conclusions

Data directly extracted from the electronic medical records stored in the data warehouse provide detailed clinical, care pathway and prognosis information. The real-time availability should enable to detect and assess the burden of the most severe cases. By a firmer and more acute monitoring and adjustment of care and patient management, hospitals could generate more ICU/ICW capacities, sensitize their emergency department and contribute to the recommendations from health authorities. This pilot study is of particular relevance in the context of emerging epidemics of severe acute respiratory diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-021-00884-8.

Interplay between hypoxia and inflammation contributes to the progression and severity of respiratory viral diseases

History of pandemics is dominated by viral infections and specifically respiratory viral diseases like influenza and COVID-19. Lower respiratory tract infection is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Crosstalk between resultant inflammation and hypoxic microenvironment may impair ventilatory response of lungs. This reduces arterial partial pressure of oxygen, termed as hypoxemia, which is observed in a section of patients with respiratory virus infections including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). In this review, we describe the interplay between inflammation and hypoxic microenvironment in respiratory viral infection and its contribution to disease pathogenesis.

Influenza Virus and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines

Seasonal influenza and the current COVID-19 pandemic represent looming global health challenges. Efficacious and safe vaccines remain the frontline tools for mitigating both influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced diseases. This review will discuss the existing strategies for influenza vaccines and how these strategies have informed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. It will also discuss new vaccine platforms and potential challenges for both viruses.

Impact of biometeorological conditions and air pollution on influenza-like illnesses incidence in Warsaw

In order to assess the influence of atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) on the seasonally varying incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in the capital of Poland-Warsaw, we analysed time series of ILI reported for the about 1.75 million residents in total and for different age groups in 288 approximately weekly periods, covering 6 years 2013-2018. Using Poisson regression, we predicted ILI by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as biometeorological indicator, and by PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, as air quality measures accounting for lagged effects spanning up to 3 weeks. Excess ILI incidence after adjusting for seasonal and annual trends was calculated by fitting generalized additive models. ILI morbidity increased with rising PM concentrations, for both PM2.5 and PM10, and with cooler atmospheric conditions as indicated by decreasing UTCI. While the PM effect focused on the actual reporting period, the atmospheric influence exhibited a more evenly distributed lagged effect pattern over the considered 3-week period. Though ILI incidence adjusted for population size significantly declined with age, age did not significantly modify the effect sizes of both PM and UTCI. These findings contribute to better understanding environmental conditionings of influenza seasonality in a temperate climate. This will be beneficial to forecasting future dynamics of ILI and to planning clinical and public health resources under climate change scenarios.

Type-IInterferon-Inducible SERTAD3 Inhibits Influenza A Virus Replication by Blocking the Assembly of Viral RNA Polymerase Complex

Influenza A virus (IAV) infection stimulates a type I interferon (IFN-I) response in host cells that exerts antiviral effects by inducing the expression of hundreds of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs). However, most ISGs are poorly studied for their roles in the infection of IAV. Herein, we demonstrate that SERTA domain containing 3 (SERTAD3) has a significant inhibitory effect on IAV replication in vitro. More importantly, Sertad3^-/- mice develop more severe symptoms upon IAV infection. Mechanistically, we find SERTAD3 reduces IAV replication through interacting with viral polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2), polymerase basic protein 1 (PB1), and polymerase acidic protein (PA) to disrupt the formation of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) complex. We further identify an 8-amino-acid peptide of SERTAD3 as a minimum interacting motif that can disrupt RdRp complex formation and inhibit IAV replication. Thus, our studies not only identify SERTAD3 as an antiviral ISG, but also provide the mechanism of potential application of SERTAD3-derived peptide in suppressing influenza replication.

Recent Progress on Biomaterials Fighting against Viruses

Viruses not only pose severe threats to public health, but also influence the development of society. Over the past decade, rapid advances have been seen in the application of nanomaterials to virus research. As an interdisciplinary field, nanotechnology offers powerful functions because the structures of nanomaterials are unique, with remarkable physicochemical properties and excellent biocompatibility. Nanomaterials have been developed for virus detection and tracking and for antiviral strategies, to better understand viruses and reduce viral infections, implying a bright future for this field. Herein, the recent advances are systematically summarized regarding the nanomaterials used in viral studies. Representative applications of nanomaterials to viral detection and tracking are described. The antiviral effects achieved with nanomaterials based on different mechanisms are also described, including entry inhibition, inhibition of viral replication, and immunological enhancement. The current challenges and future opportunities in this promising field are also discussed.

Machine Learning Prediction and Experimental Validation of Antigenic Drift in H3 Influenza A Viruses in Swine

The antigenic diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) circulating in swine challenges the development of effective vaccines, increasing zoonotic threat and pandemic potential. High-throughput sequencing technologies can quantify IAV genetic diversity, but there are no accurate approaches to adequately describe antigenic phenotypes. This study evaluated an ensemble of nonlinear regression models to estimate virus phenotype from genotype. Regression models were trained with a phenotypic data set of pairwise hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays, using genetic sequence identity and pairwise amino acid mutations as predictor features. The model identified amino acid identity, ranked the relative importance of mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, and demonstrated good prediction accuracy. Four previously untested IAV strains were selected to experimentally validate model predictions by HI assays. Errors between predicted and measured distances of uncharacterized strains were 0.35, 0.61, 1.69, and 0.13 antigenic units. These empirically trained regression models can be used to estimate antigenic distances between different strains of IAV in swine by using sequence data. By ranking the importance of mutations in the HA, we provide criteria for identifying antigenically advanced IAV strains that may not be controlled by existing vaccines and can inform strain updates to vaccines to better control this pathogen.IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses (IAV) in swine constitute a major economic burden to an important global agricultural sector, impact food security, and are a public health threat. Despite significant improvement in surveillance for IAV in swine over the past 10 years, sequence data have not been integrated into a systematic vaccine strain selection process for predicting antigenic phenotype and identifying determinants of antigenic drift. To overcome this, we developed nonlinear regression models that predict antigenic phenotype from genetic sequence data by training the model on hemagglutination inhibition assay results. We used these models to predict antigenic phenotype for previously uncharacterized IAV, ranked the importance of genetic features for antigenic phenotype, and experimentally validated our predictions. Our model predicted virus antigenic characteristics from genetic sequence data and provides a rapid and accurate method linking genetic sequence data to antigenic characteristics. This approach also provides support for public health by identifying viruses that are antigenically advanced from strains used as pandemic preparedness candidate vaccine viruses.

Not just a pathogen: The importance of recognizing genetic variability to mitigate a wildlife pandemic

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are increasingly recognized as a threat to both biodiversity and human health (Scheele et al., 2019; Wells et al., 2020). But pathogens cannot been seen as unique entities; their intraspecific genetic variability represented in variants, strains, antigenic types or genetic lineages may cause different impacts at the population level (Nelson and Holmes, 2007; Greenspan et al., 2018). The global spread of pathogens has been largely facilitated by globalization of transport, which particularly intensified during the last century (O'Hanlon et al., 2018). As seen with SARS-CoV-2, air travel can rapidly spread a pathogen globally (Wells et al., 2020). Furthermore, after initial introduction subsequent translocations of a pathogen may cause the contact of different variants facilitating the rise of novel genotypes that may have higher pathogenicity or transmissibility (Nelson and Holmes, 2007; Greenspan et al., 2018). Chytridiomycosis is an EID caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), that infects amphibian skin causing population declines to extinction in susceptible species. Now a wildlife pandemic, Bd has been recognized as the single pathogen causing the greatest loss of biodiversity on Earth (Scheele et al., 2019). Recent advances in genetics have made novel tools for pathogen detection and characterization more accessible and reliable (Boyle et al., 2004; Byrne et al., 2019). In this issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Ghosh et al. (2021) report the development of a new genotyping qPCR assay targeting mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of Bd, and based on noninvasive swab samples (Figure 1), discriminate between the two most globally widespread and pathogenic genetic lineages of Bd. Having a better understanding of how the genetic diversity of a pathogen is distributed is crucial to understand their spread patterns and develop timely mitigation strategies.

Genetic Evolution Characteristics of Genotype G57 Virus, A Dominant Genotype of H9N2 Avian Influenza Virus

This study aimed to investigate the genetic evolution of the H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV). Whole genome phylogenetic trees were constructed based on 306 H9N2 avian influenza strains collected in China from 2014 to 2019. The results showed that eight gene sequences were clustered separately according to their dominant clades, and a total of 10 genotypes were identified (seven of which were novel types). Among them, G57 genotype was confirmed as the most prevalent genotype with a frequency of 94%. In China, the G57 genotype of H9N2 first emerged in 2007, and then became the most common genotype in 2013. Therefore, the nucleotide substitution rates of G57 genotype in HA and NA genes collected from 2007 to 2019 were estimated, and the positive selection pressure sites in the same data set were measured. Taking 2013 as the boundary, the time period was divided into two periods: 2007-2012 and 2013-2019. From 2007 to 2012, multiple genotypes coexisted and could bear the pressures from both nature and environment; while G57 genotype was still in the adaptation stage, subjected to less selection pressure and in the process of slow evolution. However, from 2013 to 2019, G57 became the dominant genotype, and most of the external pressure reacted on it. Moreover, G57 genotype showed better adaptability than other genotypes. From 2013 to 2019, the nucleotide substitution rates of the HA gene were increased, and the positive selection pressures on HA and NA genes were stronger compared to those from 2007 to 2012. To sum up, the absolutely dominant G57 genotype exhibited a relatively constant genotype frequency and experienced adaptive evolution and natural selection simultaneously during the monitoring period. Therefore, urgent attention and diligent surveillance of H9N2 avian influenza virus are becoming increasingly important.

The local stability of a modified multi-strain SIR model for emerging viral strains

We study a novel multi-strain SIR epidemic model with selective immunity by vaccination. A newer strain is made to emerge in the population when a preexisting strain has reached equilbrium. We assume that this newer strain does not exhibit cross-immunity with the original strain, hence those who are vaccinated and recovered from the original strain become susceptible to the newer strain. Recent events involving the COVID-19 virus shows that it is possible for a viral strain to emerge from a population at a time when the influenza virus, a well-known virus with a vaccine readily available, is active in a population. We solved for four different equilibrium points and investigated the conditions for existence and local stability. The reproduction number was also determined for the epidemiological model and found to be consistent with the local stability condition for the disease-free equilibrium.

Adsorptive mutation and N-linked glycosylation modulate influenza virus antigenicity and fitness

Influenza viruses have an error-prone polymerase complex that facilitates a mutagenic environment. Antigenic mutants swiftly arise from this environment with the capacity to persist in both humans and economically important livestock even in the face of vaccination. Furthermore, influenza viruses can adjust the antigenicity of the haemagglutinin (HA) protein, the primary influenza immunogen, using one of four molecular mechanisms. Two prominent mechanisms are: (1) enhancing binding avidity of HA toward cellular receptors to outcompete antibody binding and (2) amino acid substitutions that introduce an N-linked glycan on HA that sterically block antibody binding. In this study we investigate the impact that adsorptive mutation and N-linked glycosylation have on receptor-binding, viral fitness, and antigenicity. We utilize the H9N2 A/chicken/Pakistan/SKP-827/16 virus which naturally contains HA residue T180 that we have previously shown to be an adsorptive mutant relative to virus with T180A. We find that the addition of N-linked glycans can be beneficial or deleterious to virus replication depending on the background receptor binding avidity. We also find that in some cases, an N-linked glycan can trump the effect of an avidity enhancing substitution with respect to antigenicity. Taken together these data shed light on a potential route to the generation of a virus which is "fit" and able to overcome vaccine pressure.

Antigenic drift of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase in seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses from Saudi Arabia in 2014 to 2015

Antigenic drift of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins of the influenza virus cause a decrease in vaccine efficacy. Since the information about the evolution of these viruses in Saudi is deficient so we investigated the genetic diversity of circulating H1N1 viruses. Nasopharyngeal aspirates/swabs collected from 149 patients hospitalized with flu-like symptoms during 2014 and 2015 were analyzed. Viral RNA extraction was followed by a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and genetic sequencing. We analyzed complete gene sequences of HA and NA from 80 positive isolates. Phylogenetic analysis of HA and NA genes of 80 isolates showed similar topologies and co-circulation of clades 6b. Genetic diversity was observed among circulating viruses belonging to clade 6B.1A. The amino acid residues in the HA epitope domain were under purifying selection. Amino acid changes at key antigenic sites, such as position S101N, S179N (antigenic site-Sa), I233T (antigenic site-Sb) in the head domain might have resulted in antigenic drift and emergence of variant viruses. For NA protein, 36% isolates showed the presence of amino acid changes such as V13I (n = 29), I314M (n = 29) and 12% had I34V (n = 10). However, H257Y mutation responsible for resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors was missing. The presence of amino acid changes at key antigenic sites and their topologies with structural mapping of residues under purifying selection highlights the importance of antigenic drift and warrants further characterization of recently circulating viruses in view of vaccine effectiveness. The co-circulation of several clades and the predominance of clade 6B.1 suggest multiple introductions in Saudi.

Squaring within the Colless index yields a better balance index

The Colless index for bifurcating phylogenetic trees, introduced by Colless (1982), is defined as the sum, over all internal nodes v of the tree, of the absolute value of the difference of the sizes of the clades defined by the children of v. It is one of the most popular phylogenetic balance indices, because, in addition to measuring the balance of a tree in a very simple and intuitive way, it turns out to be one of the most powerful and discriminating phylogenetic shape indices. But it has some drawbacks. On the one hand, although its minimum value is reached at the so-called maximally balanced trees, it is almost always reached also at trees that are not maximally balanced. On the other hand, its definition as a sum of absolute values of differences makes it difficult to study analytically its distribution under probabilistic models of bifurcating phylogenetic trees. In this paper we show that if we replace in its definition the absolute values of the differences of clade sizes by the squares of these differences, all these drawbacks are overcome and the resulting index is still more powerful and discriminating than the original Colless index.

Immunization with Plant-Derived Multimeric H5 Hemagglutinins Protect Chicken against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1

Since 2003, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) have not only caused outbreaks in poultry but were also transmitted to humans with high mortality rates. Vaccination is an efficient and economical means of increasing immunity against infections to decrease the shedding of infectious agents in immunized animals and to reduce the probability of further infections. Subunit vaccines from plants are the focus of modern vaccine developments. In this study, plant-made hemagglutinin (H5) trimers were purified from transiently transformed N. benthamiana plants. All chickens immunized with purified H5 trimers were fully protected against the severe HPAIV H5N1 challenge. We further developed a proof-of-principle approach by using disulfide bonds, homoantiparallel peptides or homodimer proteins to combine H5 trimers leading to production of H5 oligomers. Mice vaccinated with crude leaf extracts containing H5 oligomers induced neutralizing antibodies better than those induced by crude leaf extracts containing trimers. As a major result, eleven out of twelve chickens (92%) immunized with adjuvanted H5 oligomer crude extracts were protected from lethal disease while nine out of twelve chickens (75%) vaccinated with adjuvanted H5 trimer crude extracts survived. The solid protective immune response achieved by immunization with crude extracts and the stability of the oligomers form the basis for the development of inexpensive protective veterinary vaccines.

Influenza virus-flow from insects to humans as causative for influenza seasonality

Virus biomass outweighs human biomass, and insects biomass outweighs human biomass. Insects are regularly habited by viruses as well as humans, humans are further inhabited via insects. A model of viral flow is described and specified to explain influenza virus seasonality, which, in temperate climate, usually evolves when insects have mostly disappeared. With this hypothesis a coherent description of regular seasonal influenza and other seasonal respiratory virus infections in temperate climates is possible. The incidence of influenza under different circumstances e.g. temperature, humidity, or tropical conditions and different aspects like synchronicity of infections or in respect to evolutionary conditions do sustain this hypothesis if the behaviour of insects is considered.

A Mutation Network Method for Transmission Analysis of Human Influenza H3N2

Characterizing the spatial transmission pattern is critical for better surveillance and control of human influenza. Here, we propose a mutation network framework that utilizes network theory to study the transmission of human influenza H3N2. On the basis of the mutation network, the transmission analysis captured the circulation pattern from a global simulation of human influenza H3N2. Furthermore, this method was applied to explore, in detail, the transmission patterns within Europe, the United States, and China, revealing the regional spread of human influenza H3N2. The mutation network framework proposed here could facilitate the understanding, surveillance, and control of other infectious diseases.

Infection Dynamics of Swine Influenza Virus in a Danish Pig Herd Reveals Recurrent Infections with Different Variants of the H1N2 Swine Influenza A Virus Subtype

Influenza A virus (IAV) in swine, so-called swine influenza A virus (swIAV), causes respiratory illness in pigs around the globe. In Danish pig herds, a H1N2 subtype named H1N2dk is one of the main circulating swIAV. In this cohort study, the infection dynamic of swIAV was evaluated in a Danish pig herd by sampling and PCR testing of pigs from two weeks of age until slaughter at 22 weeks of age. In addition, next generation sequencing (NGS) was used to identify and characterize the complete genome of swIAV circulating in the herd, and to examine the antigenic variability in the antigenic sites of the virus hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins. Overall, 76.6% of the pigs became PCR positive for swIAV during the study, with the highest prevalence at four weeks of age. Detailed analysis of the virus sequences obtained showed that the majority of mutations occurred at antigenic sites in the HA and NA proteins of the virus. At least two different H1N2 variants were found to be circulating in the herd; one H1N2 variant was circulating at the sow and nursery sites, while another H1N2 variant was circulating at the finisher site. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that individual pigs had recurrent swIAV infections with the two different H1N2 variants, but re-infection with the same H1N2 variant was also observed. Better understandings of the epidemiology, genetic and antigenic diversity of swIAV may help to design better health interventions for the prevention and control of swIAV infections in the herds.

Passage Adaptation Correlates With the Reduced Efficacy of the Influenza Vaccine

BACKGROUND

As a dominant seasonal influenza virus, H3N2 virus rapidly evolves in humans and is a constant threat to public health. Despite sustained research efforts, the efficacy of H3N2 vaccine has decreased rapidly. Even though antigenic drift and passage adaptation (substitutions accumulated during vaccine production in embryonated eggs) have been implicated in reduced vaccine efficacy (VE), their respective contributions to the phenomenon remain controversial.

METHODS

We utilized mutational mapping, a powerful probabilistic method for studying sequence evolution, to analyze patterns of substitutions in different passage conditions for an unprecedented amount of H3N2 hemagglutinin sequences (n = 32 278).

RESULTS

We found that passage adaptation in embryonated eggs is driven by repeated convergent evolution over 12 codons. Based on substitution patterns at these sites, we developed a metric, adaptive distance (AD), to quantify the strength of passage adaptation and subsequently identified a strong negative correlation between AD and VE.

CONCLUSIONS

The high correlation between AD and VE implies that passage adaptation in embryonated eggs may be a strong contributor to the recent reduction in H3N2 VE. We developed a computational package called MADE (Measuring Adaptive Distance and vaccine Efficacy based on allelic barcodes) to measure the strength of passage adaptation and predict the efficacy of a candidate vaccine strain. Our findings shed light on strategies for reducing Darwinian evolution within the passaging medium in order to potentially restore an effective vaccine program in the future.

Quantifying between-Host Transmission in Influenza Virus Infections

The error-prone replication and life cycle of influenza virus generate a diverse set of genetic variants. Transmission between hosts strictly limits both the number of virus particles and the genetic diversity of virus variants that reach a new host and establish an infection. This sharp reduction in the virus population at transmission--the transmission bottleneck--is significant to the evolution of influenza virus and to its epidemic and pandemic potential. This review describes transmission bottlenecks and their effect on the diversity and evolution of influenza virus. It also reviews the methods for calculating and predicting bottleneck sizes and highlights the host and viral determinants of influenza transmissibility.

Comparative epidemiology, phylogenetics, and transmission patterns of severe influenza A/H3N2 in Australia from 2003 to 2017

Background

Over the last two decades, Australia has experienced four severe influenza seasons caused by a predominance of influenza A (A/H3N2): 2003, 2007, 2012, and 2017.

Methods

We compared the epidemiology, genetics, and transmission dynamics of severe A/H3N2 seasons in Australia from 2003 to 2017.

Results

Since 2003, the proportion of notifications in 0‐4 years old has decreased, while it has increased in the age group >80 years old (P < .001). The genetic diversity of circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses has also increased over time with the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms significantly (P < .05) increasing. We also identified five residue positions within or near the receptor binding site of HA (144, 145, 159, 189, and 225) undergoing frequent mutations that are likely involved in significant antigenic drift and possibly severity. The Australian state of Victoria was identified as a frequent location for transmission either to or from other states and territories over the study years. The states of New South Wales and Queensland were also frequently implicated as locations of transmission to other states and territories but less so over the years. This indicates a stable but also changing dynamic of A/H3N2 circulation in Australia.

Conclusion

These results have important implications for future influenza surveillance and control policy in the country. Reasons for the change in age‐specific infection and increased genetic diversity of A/H3N2 viruses in recent years should be explored.

Host Protective Immune Responses against Influenza A Virus Infection

Influenza viruses cause infectious respiratory disease characterized by fever, myalgia, and congestion, ranging in severity from mild to life-threating. Although enormous efforts have aimed to prevent and treat influenza infections, seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks remain a major public health concern. This is largely because influenza viruses rapidly undergo genetic mutations that restrict the long-lasting efficacy of vaccine-induced immune responses and therapeutic regimens. In this review, we discuss the virological features of influenza A viruses and provide an overview of current knowledge of the innate sensing of invading influenza viruses and the protective immune responses in the host.

A Multiligand Architectural Photosensitizer That Targets Hemagglutinin on Envelope of Influenza Virus for Photodynamic Inactivation

The efficacy of current antiviral drugs used to treat influenza has been declining because of mutations and resistance of the virus. Herein, a light-sensitive multiligand architecture is developed consisting of chitosan conjugated to a photosensitizer and 6'-sialyllactose (SL) to develop an antiviral agent against influenza with a different mechanism of action (SL-chitosan-Chlorin e6, SCC). Saturation transfer difference-nuclear magnetic resonance determined that the ability of SCC to bind to viral hemagglutinin is stronger than that of the monomeric substance. Virus recognition is confirmed by immunofluorescence and transmission electron microscope imaging. SCC induces viral inactivation by causing permanent membrane damage through its photoactivity. Viral membrane is oxidized by the photoactivity of SCC, thus, the virus membrane collapses. Furthermore, using the plaque reduction assay to evaluate the inhibitory effect of SCC on influenza A and B, it is found that its antiviral effects are 23% and 50% higher than the conventional antiviral drug. Additionally, SCC prevents infection by influenza in 100% of mice subjected to laser irradiation. These results indicate that this photodynamic multiligand structure can overcome the limitations of existing antiviral agents and suggest a pertinent methodology of prophylaxis and treatment by preemptively attacking the virus before it enters the host cell.

The Phylodynamics of Seasonal Influenza A/H1N1pdm Virus in China Between 2009 and 2019

Since its first introduction into China in 2009, influenza A/H1N1pdm virus has undergone a rapid expansion and replaced the classical seasonal A(H1N1) virus. To characterize the ongoing evolution and national transmission dynamics of this virus, we analyzed 335 complete genome, 1259 HA, and 1043 NA sequences of the A/H1N1pdm strains detected in China. We found that the dN/dS value and relative genetic diversity of the A/H1N1pdm virus experienced a decrease from 2009 to 2017, and then a rapid increase during 2018–2019. Importantly, elevated relative genetic diversity was observed in the A/H1N1pdm and the A/H3N2 viruses, as well as two lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) of influenza B virus during 2018–2019, suggesting the simultaneous changes of these viruses in terms of genetic diversity might be associated with the recent large outbreak of seasonal influenza epidemic in China during 2018–2019. Fifteen amino acid mutations were found to be fixed along the main trunks of both HA and NA phylogenetic trees, and some of them are located in the antigen binding site or the receptor binding site. A sequential accumulation of mutations relative to the 2009-vaccine strain was observed in the circulating A/H1N1pdm strains during 2009–2016, while a rapid accumulation of mutations relative to the 2015-vaccine strain appeared in the emerging variants in 2017 shortly after the release of the vaccine. Multiple introductions of the A/H1N1pdm lineages into China were observed during 2009–2019, and East China and South China were found to serve as two major epicenters responsible for the national migration of the virus. In summary, these data provide important insights into the understanding of the evolution, epidemiology and transmission of the A/H1N1pdm virus, and highlight the importance of strengthening influenza surveillance in East China and South China.

On Sackin's original proposal: the variance of the leaves' depths as a phylogenetic balance index

Background

The Sackin indexS of a rooted phylogenetic tree, defined as the sum of its leaves’ depths, is one of the most popular balance indices in phylogenetics, and Sackin’s paper (Syst Zool 21:225–6, 1972) is usually cited as the source for this index. However, what Sackin actually proposed in his paper as a measure of the imbalance of a rooted tree was not the sum of its leaves’ depths, but their “variation”. This proposal was later implemented as the variance of the leaves’ depths by Kirkpatrick and Slatkin in (Evolution 47:1171–81, 1993), where they also posed the problem of finding a closed formula for its expected value under the Yule model. Nowadays, Sackin’s original proposal seems to have passed into oblivion in the phylogenetics literature, replaced by the index bearing his name, which, in fact, was introduced a decade later by Sokal.

Results

In this paper we study the properties of the variance of the leaves’ depths, V, as a balance index. Firstly, we prove that the rooted trees with n leaves and maximum V value are exactly the combs with n leaves. But although V achieves its minimum value on every space \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {BT}_{n}$\end{document}ℬTn of bifurcating rooted phylogenetic trees with n≤183 leaves at the so-called “maximally balanced trees” with n leaves, this property fails for almost every n≥184. We provide then an algorithm that finds the trees in \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {BT}_{n}$\end{document}ℬTn with minimum V value in time O(n log(n)). Secondly, we obtain closed formulas for the expected V value of a bifurcating rooted tree with any number n of leaves under the Yule and the uniform models and, as a by-product of the computations leading to these formulas, we also obtain closed formulas for the variance under the uniform model of the Sackin index and the total cophenetic index (Mir et al., Math Biosci 241:125–36, 2013) of a bifurcating rooted tree, as well as of their covariance, thus filling this gap in the literature.

Conclusion

The phylogenetics community has been wise in preferring the sum S(T) of the leaves’ depths of a phylogenetic tree T over their variance V(T) as a balance index, because the latter does not seem to capture correctly the notion of balance of large bifurcating rooted trees. But it is still a valid and useful shape index.

Deficiency of HIF-1α enhances influenza A virus replication by promoting autophagy in alveolar type II epithelial cells

Infection of influenza A virus (IAV) can trigger exaggerated pulmonary inflammation and induce acute lung injury (ALI). Limiting IAV replication and alleviation of pulmonary inflammation are two important therapeutic strategies for influenza virus infection. Recent studies have shown that hypoxia inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) is an essential factor for the development and repair of ALI; however, the role and the underlying mechanisms of HIF-1α in IAV-induced ALI remain elusive. Here, we demonstrated that lung epithelial cell-specific Hif1α knockout mice infected with IAV developed more lung IAV replication and severe lung inflammation, which led to increased mortality compared to IAV-infected control mice. Moreover, knockdown of HIF1A in A549 cells (human alveolar type II epithelial cell line) promoted IAV replication in vitro. Mechanistically, knockdown of HIF1A reduced glycolysis by regulating transcription of glycolysis-related enzymes, which subsequently activated the AMPKα-ULK1 signalling pathway. Interestingly, AMPKα-ULK1 signalling promoted autophagy and augmented IAV replication. Taken together, deficiency of HIF-1α in lung epithelial cells reduces glycolysis and enhances AMPKα-ULK1-mediated autophagy, which finally facilitates IAV replication. These findings have deepened our understanding of the role of HIF-1α in regulating IAV replication and provided us novel therapeutic targets for combating influenza infection.

Chromosomal assembly and analyses of genome-wide recombination rates in the forest pathogenic fungus Armillaria ostoyae

Recombination shapes the evolutionary trajectory of populations and plays an important role in the faithful transmission of chromosomes during meiosis. Levels of sexual reproduction and recombination are important properties of host-pathogen interactions because the speed of antagonistic co-evolution depends on the ability of hosts and pathogens to generate genetic variation. However, our understanding of the importance of recombination is limited because large taxonomic groups remain poorly investigated. Here, we analyze recombination rate variation in the basidiomycete fungus Armillaria ostoyae, which is an aggressive pathogen on a broad range of conifers and other trees. We analyzed a previously constructed, dense genetic map based on 198 single basidiospore progeny from a cross. Progeny were genotyped at a genome-wide set of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using double digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing. Based on a linkage map of on 11,700 SNPs spanning 1007.5 cM, we assembled genomic scaffolds into 11 putative chromosomes of a total genome size of 56.6 Mb. We identified 1984 crossover events among all progeny and found that recombination rates were highly variable along chromosomes. Recombination hotspots tended to be in regions close to the telomeres and were more gene-poor than the genomic background. Genes in proximity to recombination hotspots were encoding on average shorter proteins and were enriched for pectin degrading enzymes. Our analyses enable more powerful population and genome-scale studies of a major tree pathogen.

Antigenic characterization of novel H1 influenza A viruses in swine

Novel H1N2 influenza A viruses (IAVs) in swine have been identified in Chile co-circulating with pandemic H1N1 2009-like (A(H1N1)pdm09-like) viruses. The objective of this study was to characterize antigenically the swine H1 IAVs circulating in Chile. Genetic analysis based on the HA1 domain and antigenic analysis by hemagglutination inhibition assay were carried out. Three antigenic clusters were identified, named Chilean H1 A (ChH1A), Chilean H1 B (ChH1B), and A(H1N1)pdm09-like. The antigenic sites of ChH1A and ChH1B strains were 10–60% distant from those of commercial vaccine strains at the amino acid sequence level. Antigenic variants were identified within the clusters ChH1A and A(H1N1)pdm09-like. Substitutions in the main antigenic sites (E153G in Sa, Q193H in Sb, D168N in Ca1, P137S in Ca2, and F71L in Cb) were detected in variants from the ChH1A cluster, whereas only a single substitution in antigenic site Sa (G155E) was detected in variants from A(H1N1)pdm09-like cluster, which confirms the importance to carrying out antigenic analyses in addition to genetic analyses to evaluate control measures such as vaccination. These results highlight the need to update vaccines for swine in Chile and the importance of continued surveillance to determine the onward transmission of antigenic variants in Chilean pig populations.

Efficacy of anti-influenza immunoglobulin (FLU-IGIV) in ferrets and mice infected with 2009 pandemic influenza virus

Seasonal influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality around the world each year, even with the use of vaccines and antivirals. There is a need for more effective treatments for severe and hospitalized cases of influenza. In this study, we have tested the efficacy of a human plasma-derived IgG product (FLU-IGIV) against seasonal influenza in mouse and ferret models of influenza infection. FLU-IGIV successfully protected mice (100% survival) against lethal influenza infection. Also, the survival rate observed with FLU-IGIV treatment was better than the survival rate observed with oseltamivir (60% survival). FLU-IGIV significantly reduced the viral load in the lungs compared to placebo (PBS) in ferrets infected with influenza A/California/07/2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus. Overall, these studies demonstrate the efficacy of human plasma-derived FLU-IGIV in relevant animal models of influenza virus infection.

Substantial Antigenic Drift in the Hemagglutinin Protein of Swine Influenza A Viruses

The degree of antigenic drift in swine influenza A viruses (swIAV) has historically been regarded as minimal compared to that of human influenza A virus strains. However, as surveillance activities on swIAV have increased, more isolates have been characterized, revealing a high level of genetic and antigenic differences even within the same swIAV lineage. The objective of this study was to investigate the level of genetic drift in one enzootically infected swine herd over one year. Nasal swabs were collected monthly from sows (n = 4) and piglets (n = 40) in the farrowing unit, and from weaners (n = 20) in the nursery. Virus from 1-4 animals were sequenced per month. Analyses of the sequences revealed that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was the main target for genetic drift with a substitution rate of 7.6 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year and evidence of positive selection. The majority of the mutations occurred in the globular head of the HA protein and in antigenic sites. The phylogenetic tree of the HA sequences displayed a pectinate typology, where only a single lineage persists and forms the ancestor for subsequent lineages. This was most likely caused by repeated selection of a single immune-escape variant, which subsequently became the founder of the next wave of infections.

Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2

Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial epidemiological growth rate––which is a function of mutational load and population susceptibility to the cluster––along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating viruses. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually succeed with ~80% sensitivity, providing up to eight months advance warning. As a cluster expands, the predictions improve while the lead-time for vaccine development and other interventions decreases. However, attempts to make comparable predictions from 12 years of empirical influenza surveillance data, which are far sparser and more coarse-grained, achieve only 56% sensitivity. By expanding influenza surveillance to obtain more granular estimates of the frequencies of and population-wide susceptibility to emerging viruses, we can better anticipate major antigenic transitions. This provides added incentives for accelerating the vaccine production cycle to reduce the lead time required for strain selection.

The efficacy of annual seasonal influenza vaccines depends on selecting the strain that best matches circulating viruses. This selection takes place 9–12 months prior to the influenza season. To advise this decision, we used an influenza A/H3N2 phylodynamic simulation to explore how reliably and how far in advance can we identify strains that will dominate future influenza seasons? What data should we collect to accelerate and improve the accuracy of such forecasts? And importantly, what is the gap between the theoretical limit of prediction and prediction based on current influenza surveillance? Our results suggest that even with detailed virological information, the tight race between the antigenic turnover dynamics and the vaccine development timeline limits early detection of emerging viruses. Predictions based on current influenza surveillance do not achieve the theoretical limit and thus our results provide impetus for denser sampling and the development of rapid methods for estimating viral fitness.

Influenza B Viruses Exhibit Lower Within-Host Diversity than Influenza A Viruses in Human Hosts

Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.

Detection of a Reassortant H9N2 Avian Influenza Virus with Intercontinental Gene Segments in a Resident Australian Chestnut Teal

The present study reports the genetic characterization of a low-pathogenicity H9N2 avian influenza virus, initially from a pool and subsequently from individual faecal samples collected from Chestnut teals (Anas castanea) in southeastern Australia. Phylogenetic analyses of six full gene segments and two partial gene segments obtained from next-generation sequencing showed that this avian influenza virus, A/Chestnut teal/Australia/CT08.18/12952/2018 (H9N2), was a typical, low-pathogenicity, Eurasian aquatic bird lineage H9N2 virus, albeit containing the North American lineage nucleoprotein (NP) gene segment detected previously in Australian wild birds. This is the first report of a H9N2 avian influenza virus in resident wild birds in Australia, and although not in itself a cause of concern, is a clear indication of spillover and likely reassortment of influenza viruses between migratory and resident birds, and an indication that any lineage could potentially be introduced in this way.

Molecular evolution and amino acid characteristics of newly isolated H9N2 avian influenza viruses from Liaoning Province, China

H9N2 is widespread among poultry and humans. Though this subtype is not lethal to either species, it can cause considerable financial losses for farmers and threaten human health. In this study, 10 new H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) produced by reassortment were isolated from domestic birds in Liaoning Province between March 2012 and October 2014. Nucleotide sequence comparisons indicate that the internal genes of one of these strains are highly similar to those of human H7N9 viruses. Amino acid substitutions and deletions occurred in the HA and NA proteins separately, indicating that all 10 of these isolates may have an enhanced ability to infect mammals. A cross-hemagglutinin inhibition assay conducted with two vaccine strains that are broadly used in China suggests that antisera against vaccine candidates cannot completely inhibit the new isolates. Two of the 10 newly isolated viruses could replicate in respiratory organs of infected BALB/c mice without adaption, suggesting that these isolates can potentially infect mammals. The continued surveillance of poultry is important to provide early warning and control of AIV outbreaks. Our results highlight the high genetic diversity of AIV and the need for more extensive AIV surveillance.

Foodborne Transmission of Deformed Wing Virus to Ants (Myrmica rubra)

Virus host shifts occur frequently, but the whole range of host species and the actual transmission pathways are often poorly understood. Deformed wing virus (DWV), an RNA virus described from honeybees (Apis mellifera), has been shown to have a broad host range. Since ants are often scavenging on dead honeybees, foodborne transmission of these viruses may occur. However, the role of the ant Myrmica rubra as an alternative host is not known and foodborne transmission to ants has not been experimentally addressed yet. Here, we show with a 16-week feeding experiment that foodborne transmission enables DWV type-A and -B to infect M. rubra and that these ants may serve as a virus reservoir. However, the titers of both plus- and minus-sense viral RNA strands decreased over time. Since the ants were fed with highly virus-saturated honeybee pupae, this probably resulted in initial viral peaks, then approaching lower equilibrium titers in infected individuals later. Since DWV infections were also found in untreated field-collected M. rubra colonies, our results support the wide host range of DWV and further suggest foodborne transmission as a so far underestimated spread mechanism.

New molecular evolutionary characteristics of H9N2 avian influenza virus in Guangdong Province, China

To understand the evolution of H9N2 avian influenza virus genotype and its molecular evolution rate, we systematically analyzed 72 H9N2 avian influenza virus sequences isolated from Guangdong province from 2014 to 2018. We found three genotypes (G57, G68, and G118) of the H9N2 avian influenza virus, of which G118 is a newly discovered genotype and G57 is the dominant genotype. The internal gene cassette of the G57 genotype H9N2 avian influenza virus is a stable combination that can easily transport internal genes to other novel avian influenza viruses, and the internal gene cassettes of the G68 and G118 are identical to those of G57.In addition, we estimated the nucleotide substitution rate of the HA and NA genes of the H9N2 influenza virus from 2014 to 2018.The nucleotide substitution rate of HA and NA genes showed an upward trend in 2015 and 2016. In the past two years, H9N2 avian influenza virus recombination has produced genotype G68, which disappeared in 2014 for one year. And very coincidentally, in 2015, there was a new genotype G118. We observed that the emergence of new genotypes was accompanied by a slight increase in overall nucleotide substitution rate. Therefore we hypothesize that the emergence of new genotypes could accelerate the molecular evolution rate of genes. Our research shows that the H9N2 avian influenza virus in Guangdong province has been undergoing intense evolution, demonstrating the need to strengthen influenza surveillance in the region.

Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959-2016

This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.

Sequence analysis of the medium and small RNAs of impatiens necrotic spot virus reveals segment reassortment but not recombination

The complete sequence of the medium (M) and small (S) RNA genome segments were determined for twelve isolates of impatiens necrotic spot virus from eight plant species. The M- and S-RNAs of these isolates shared 97-99% and 93-98% nucleotide sequence identity, respectively, with the corresponding full-length sequences available in public databases. Phylogenetic analysis based on the M- or S-RNA sequences showed incongruence in the phylogenetic position of some isolates, suggesting intraspecies segment reassortment. The lack of phylogenetic discordance in individual and concatenated sequences of individual genes encoded by M- or S-RNAs suggests that segment reassortment rather than recombination is driving evolution of these INSV isolates.

Variation in Intra-individual Lentiviral Evolution Rates: a Systematic Review of Human, Nonhuman Primate, and Felid Species

Lentiviral replication mediated by reverse transcriptase is considered to be highly error prone, leading to a high intra-individual evolution rate that promotes evasion of neutralization and persistent infection. Understanding lentiviral intra-individual evolutionary dynamics on a comparative basis can therefore inform research strategies to aid in studies of pathogenesis, vaccine design, and therapeutic intervention. We conducted a systematic review of intra-individual evolution rates for three species groups of lentiviruses-feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Overall, intra-individual rate estimates differed by virus but not by host, gene, or viral strain. Lentiviral infections in spillover (nonadapted) hosts approximated infections in primary (adapted) hosts. Our review consistently documents that FIV evolution rates within individuals are significantly lower than the rates recorded for HIV and SIV. FIV intra-individual evolution rates were noted to be equivalent to FIV interindividual rates. These findings document inherent differences in the evolution of FIV relative to that of primate lentiviruses, which may signal intrinsic difference of reverse transcriptase between these viral species or different host-viral interactions. Analysis of lentiviral evolutionary selection pressures at the individual versus population level is valuable for understanding transmission dynamics and the emergence of virulent and avirulent strains and provides novel insight for approaches to interrupt lentiviral infections.IMPORTANCE To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that compares intra-individual evolution rates for FIV, SIV, and HIV following systematic review of the literature. Our findings have important implications for informing research strategies in the field of intra-individual virus dynamics for lentiviruses. We observed that FIV evolves more slowly than HIV and SIV at the intra-individual level and found that mutation rates may differ by gene sequence length but not by host, gene, strain, an experimental setting relative to a natural setting, or spillover host infection relative to primary host infection.

Avian Influenza A Virus Polymerase Recruits Cellular RNA Helicase eIF4A3 to Promote Viral mRNA Splicing and Spliced mRNA Nuclear Export

The influenza A virus replicates in a broad range of avian and mammalian species by hijacking cellular factors and processes. Avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) generally propagated poorly in mammalian cells, but some mutants of virus-encoded RNA polymerase components, especially PB2 subunit, can overcome host restriction. Host factors associated with PB2 may be essential for efficient AIV replication in mammalian cells. Here, we infected human cells with the PB2 Flag-tagged replication-competent recombinant AIV and identified cellular proteins that coprecipitate with PB2 protein by mass spectrometry. We confirmed one of the coprecipitating host factors, DEAD-box protein eIF4A3, that interacts with viral PB2, PB1, and NP proteins. Depletion of endogenous eIF4A3 significantly reduced virus replication. Later studies showed that eIF4A3 is essential for viral RNA polymerase activity and viral RNAs synthesis. Upon systematic dissection of the influenza virus progeny mRNA generation, from pre-mRNA processing to nuclear export, we found that the depletion of eIF4A3 resulted in significant defects in the ratio of M2 to M1 and NS2 to NS1, and the proportion of viral spliced mRNA in the nucleus increased, indicating that eIF4A3 plays a significant function in viral nascent intron mRNA splicing and spliced mRNA (M2 and NS2) nuclear export. Additionally, we confirmed that in specific deletion of eIF4A3, the synthesis of reduced NS2 can significantly impair neo-synthetized viral ribonucleoprotein (vRNP) nuclear export. Taken together, our findings revealed that eIF4A3 is a key mediator of AIV polymerase activity, mRNA splicing, and spliced mRNA nuclear export.

Predicting Antigenicity of Influenza A Viruses Using biophysical ideas

Antigenic variations of influenza A viruses are induced by genomic mutation in their trans-membrane protein HA1, eliciting viral escape from neutralization by antibodies generated in prior infections or vaccinations. Prediction of antigenic relationships among influenza viruses is useful for designing (or updating the existing) influenza vaccines, provides important insights into the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning viral antigenic variations, and helps to understand viral epidemiology. In this study, we present a simple and physically interpretable model that can predict antigenic relationships among influenza A viruses, based on biophysical ideas, using both genomic amino acid sequences and experimental antigenic data. We demonstrate the applicability of the model using a benchmark dataset of four subtypes of influenza A (H1N1, H3N2, H5N1, and H9N2) viruses and report on its performance profiles. Additionally, analysis of the model’s parameters confirms several observations that are consistent with the findings of other previous studies, for which we provide plausible explanations.

Approximate perturbative solutions of quasispecies model with recombination

Despite the major roles played by genetic recombination in ecoevolutionary processes, limited progress has been made in analyzing realistic recombination models to date, due largely to the complexity of the associated mechanisms and the strongly nonlinear nature of the dynamical differential systems. In this paper, we consider a many-loci genomic model with fitness dependent on the Hamming distance from a reference genome, and adopt a Hamilton-Jacobi formulation to derive perturbative solutions for general linear fitness landscapes. The horizontal gene transfer model is used to describe recombination processes. Cases of weak selection and weak recombination with simultaneous mutation and selection are examined, yielding semianalytical solutions for the distribution surplus of O(1/N) accuracy, where N is the number of nucleotides in the genome.