Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms

Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world's largest and most productive fisheries.

Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods

Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities.

Over 20% of marine fishes shifting in the North and Barents Seas, but not in the Norwegian Sea

Climate warming generally induces poleward range expansions and equatorward range contractions of species' environmental niches on a global scale. Here, we examined the direction and magnitude of species biomass centroid geographic shifts in relation to temperature and depth for 83 fish species in 9,522 standardised research trawls from the North Sea (1998-2020) to the Norwegian (2000-2020) and Barents Sea (2004-2020). We detected an overall significant northward shift of the marine fish community biomass in the North Sea, and individual species northward shifts in the Barents and North Seas, in 20% and 25% of the species' biomass centroids in each respective region. We did not detect overall community shifts in the Norwegian Sea, where two species (8%) shifted in each direction (northwards and southwards). Among 9 biological traits, species biogeographic assignation, preferred temperature, age at maturity and maximum depth were significant explanatory variables for species latitudinal shifts in some of the study areas, and Arctic species shifted significantly faster than boreal species in the Barents Sea. Overall, our results suggest a strong influence of other factors, such as biological interactions, in determining several species' recent geographic shifts.

Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally

Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.

Heatwaves, elevated temperatures, and a pesticide cause interactive effects on multi-trophic levels of a freshwater ecosystem

Climate impacts of elevated temperatures and more severe and frequent weather extremes like heatwaves are globally becoming discernible on nature. While a mechanistic understanding is pivotal for ecosystem management, stressors like pesticides may interact with warming, leading to unpredictable effects on freshwater ecosystems. These multiple stressor studies are scarce and experimental designs often lack environmental realism. To investigate the multiple stressor effects, we conducted a microcosm experiment for 48 days comprising benthic macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, macrophytes, and microbes. The fungicide carbendazim (100 μg/L) was investigated combined with temperature scenarios representing elevated temperatures (+4 °C) or heatwaves (+0 to +8 °C), both applied with similar energy input on a daily fluctuating ambient temperature (18 °C ± 1.5 °C), which served as control. Measurements showed the highest carbendazim dissipation in water under heatwaves followed by elevated and ambient temperatures. Average carbendazim concentrations were about 50% in water and 16% in sediment of the nominal concentration. In both heated cosms, zooplankton community dynamics revealed an unexpected shift from Rotifera to Cladocera and Copepoda nauplii, indicating variations in their thermal sensitivity, tolerance and resilience. Notably, warming and heatwaves shaped community responses similarly, suggesting heat intensity rather than distribution patterns determined the community structure. Heatwaves led to significant early and longer-lasting adverse effects that were exacerbated over time with Cladocera and Copepoda being most sensitive likely due to significant carbendazim interactions. Finally, a structural equation model demonstrated significant relationships between zooplankton and macrophytes and significantly negative carbendazim effects on zooplankton, whereas positive on macroinvertebrate abundances. The relationship between macroinvertebrate feeding and abundance was masked by significantly temperature-affected microbial leaf litter decomposition. Despite the thermal tolerance of zooplankton communities, our study highlights an increased pesticide threat under temperature extremes. More intense heatwaves are thus likely to cause significant alterations in community assemblages which will adversely affect ecosystem's processes and functions.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Linking critical thermal maximum to mortality from thermal stress in a cold-water frog

Estimates of organismal thermal tolerance are frequently used to assess physiological risk from warming, yet the assumption that these estimates are predictive of mortality has been called into question. We tested this assumption in the cold-water-specialist frog, Ascaphus montanus. For seven populations, we used dynamic experimental assays to measure tadpole critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and measured mortality from chronic thermal stress for 3 days at different temperatures. We tested the relationship between previously estimated population CTmax and observed mortality, as well as the strength of CTmax as a predictor of mortality compared to local stream temperatures capturing varying timescales. Populations with higher CTmax experienced significantly less mortality in the warmest temperature treatment (25°C). We also found that population CTmax outperformed stream temperature metrics as the top predictor of observed mortality. These results demonstrate a clear link between CTmax and mortality from thermal stress, contributing evidence that CTmax is a relevant metric for physiological vulnerability assessments.

Temperature adaptation and its impact on the shape of performance curves in Drosophila populations

Understanding how species adapt to different temperatures is crucial to predict their response to global warming, and thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been employed recurrently to study this topic. Nevertheless, fundamental questions regarding how thermodynamic constraints and evolution interact to shape TPCs in lineages inhabiting different environments remain unanswered. Here, we study Drosophila simulans along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3000 km to test opposing hypotheses based on thermodynamic constrains (hotter-is-better) versus biochemical adaptation (jack-of-all-temperatures) as primary determinants of TPCs variation across populations. We compare thermal responses in metabolic rate and the egg-to-adult survival as descriptors of organismal performance and fitness, respectively, and show that different descriptors of TPCs vary in tandem with mean environmental temperatures, providing strong support to hotter-is-better. Thermodynamic constraints also resulted in a strong negative association between maximum performance and thermal breadth. Lastly, we show that descriptors of TPCs for metabolism and egg-to-adult survival are highly correlated, providing evidence of co-adaptation, and that curves for egg-to-adult survival are systematically narrower and displaced toward lower temperatures. Taken together, our results support the pervasive role of thermodynamics constraining thermal responses in Drosophila populations along a latitudinal gradient, that are only partly compensated by evolutionary adaptation.

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.

Ocean warming favours a northern Argyrosomus species over its southern congener, whereas preliminary metabolic evidence suggests that hybridization may promote their adaptation

Anthropogenic-induced climate change is having profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems, and the resilience of fish populations will be determined by their response to these impacts. The northern Namibian coast is an ocean warming hotspot, with temperatures rising faster than the global average. The rapid warming in Namibia has had considerable impacts on marine fauna, such as the southern extension of the distribution of Argyrosomus coronus from southern Angola into northern Namibian waters, where it now overlaps and hybridizes with the closely related Namibian species, A. inodorus. Understanding how these species (and their hybrids) perform at current and future temperatures is vital to optimize adaptive management for Argyrosomus species. Intermittent flow-through respirometry was used to quantify standard and maximum metabolic rates for Argyrosomus individuals across a range of temperatures. The modelled aerobic scope (AS) of A. inodorus was notably higher at cooler temperatures (12, 15, 18 and 21°C) compared with that of A. coronus, whereas the AS was similar at 24°C. Although only five hybrids were detected and three modelled, their AS was in the upper bounds of the models at 15, 18 and 24°C. These findings suggest that the warming conditions in northern Namibia may increasingly favour A. coronus and promote the poleward movement of the leading edge of their southern distribution. In contrast, the poor aerobic performance of both species at cold temperatures (12°C) suggests that the cold water associated with the permanent Lüderitz Upwelling Cell in the south may constrain both species to central Namibia. This is most concerning for A. inodorus because it may be subjected to a considerable coastal squeeze.

Heat-avoidance behavior associates with thermal sensitivity rather than tolerance in aphid assemblages

How to predict animals' heat-avoidance behaviors is critical since behavior stands the first line for animals dealing with frequent heat events under ongoing climate warming. However, the discrepancy between the scarcity of research on heat-avoidance behaviors and the commonness of eco-physiological data for thermal tolerance and for thermal sensitivity such as the temperature-dependent survival time makes it difficult to link physiological thermal traits to heat-avoidance behavior. Aphids usually suck plant sap on a fixed site on the host plants at moderate temperatures, but they will leave and seek cooler feeding sites under stressful temperatures. Here we take the cereal aphid assemblages comprising different species with various development stages as a model system. We tested the hypotheses that heat tolerance (critical thermal maximum, CT_max) or heat sensitivity (temperature-dependent declining rate of survival time, similarly hereinafter) would associate with the temperature at which aphid activate heat-avoidance behavior. Specifically, we hypothesized the aphids with less heat tolerance or greater heat sensitivity would take a lower heat risk by leaving the host plant earlier. By mimicking the linear increase in ambient temperature during the daytime, we measured the CT_max and the heat-avoidance temperature (HAT, at which aphids leave the host plant to find cooler places) to understand their heat tolerance and heat-avoidance behavior. Then, we tested the survival time of aphids at different temperatures and calculated the slope of survival time declining with temperature to assess their heat sensitivity (HS). Finally, we examined the relationships between CT_max and HAT and between HS and HAT to understand if the heat-avoidance behavior associates with heat tolerance or with heat sensitivity. The results showed that HS and HAT had a strong correlation, with more heat sensitive individuals displayed lower HAT. By contrast, CT_max and HAT had a weak correlation. Our results thus provide evidence that heat sensitivity is a more reliable indicator than thermal tolerance linking with the heat-avoidance behavior in the aphid assemblages. Most existing studies use the indexes related to thermal tolerance to predict warming impacts. Our findings highlight the urgency to incorporate thermal sensitivity when predicting animal responses to climate change.

The ecological relevance of critical thermal maxima methodology for fishes

Critical thermal maxima methodology (CTM) has been used to infer acute upper thermal tolerance in fishes since the 1950s, yet its ecological relevance remains debated. In this study, the authors synthesize evidence to identify methodological concerns and common misconceptions that have limited the interpretation of critical thermal maximum (CT_max ; value for an individual fish during one trial) in ecological and evolutionary studies of fishes. They identified limitations of, and opportunities for, using CT_max as a metric in experiments, focusing on rates of thermal ramping, acclimation regimes, thermal safety margins, methodological endpoints, links to performance traits and repeatability. Care must be taken when interpreting CTM in ecological contexts, because the protocol was originally designed for ecotoxicological research with standardized methods to facilitate comparisons within study individuals, across species and contexts. CTM can, however, be used in ecological contexts to predict impacts of environmental warming, but only if parameters influencing thermal limits, such as acclimation temperature or rate of thermal ramping, are taken into account. Applications can include mitigating the effects of climate change, informing infrastructure planning or modelling species distribution, adaptation and/or performance in response to climate-related temperature change. The authors' synthesis points to several key directions for future research that will further aid the application and interpretation of CTM data in ecological contexts.

Population structure and genome-wide evolutionary signatures reveal putative climate-driven habitat change and local adaptation in the large yellow croaker

The large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea) is one of the most economically valuable marine fish in China and is a notable species in ecological studies owing to a serious collapse of wild germplasm in the past few decades. The stock division and species distribution, which have important implications for ecological protection, germplasm recovery, and fishery resource management, have been debated since the 1960s. However, it is still uncertain even how many stocks exist in this species. To address this, we evaluated the fine-scale genetic structure of large yellow croaker populations distributed along the eastern and southern Chinese coastline based on 7.64 million SNP markers. Compared with the widely accepted stock boundaries proposed in the 1960s, our results revealed that a climate-driven habitat change probably occurred between the Naozhou (Nanhai) Stock and the Ming-Yuedong (Mindong) Stock. The boundary between these two stocks might have shifted northwards from the Pearl River Estuary to the northern area of the Taiwan Strait, accompanied by highly asymmetric introgression. In addition, we found divergent landscapes of natural selection between the stocks inhabiting northern and southern areas. The northern population exhibited highly agminated signatures of strong natural selection in genes related to developmental processes, whereas moderate and interspersed selective signatures were detected in many immune-related genes in the southern populations. These findings establish the stock status and genome-wide evolutionary landscapes of large yellow croaker, providing a basis for conservation, fisheries management and further evolutionary biology studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00165-2.

Vulnerability to climate change increases with trophic level in terrestrial organisms

The resilience of ecosystem function under global climate change is governed by individual species vulnerabilities and the functional groups they contribute to (e.g. decomposition, primary production, pollination, primary, secondary and tertiary consumption). Yet it remains unclear whether species that contribute to different functional groups, which underpin ecosystem function, differ in their vulnerability to climate change. We used existing upper thermal limit data across a range of terrestrial species (N = 1701) to calculate species warming margins (degrees distance between a species upper thermal limit and the maximum environmental temperature they inhabit), as a metric of climate change vulnerability. We examined whether species that comprise different functional groups exhibit differential vulnerability to climate change, and if vulnerability trends change across geographic space while considering evolutionary history. Primary producers had the broadest warming margins across the globe (μ = 18.72 °C) and tertiary consumers had the narrowest warming margins (μ = 9.64 °C), where vulnerability tended to increase with trophic level. Warming margins had a nonlinear relationship (second-degree polynomial) with absolute latitude, where warming margins were narrowest at about 33°, and were broader at lower and higher absolute latitudes. Evolutionary history explained significant variation in species warming margins, as did the methodology used to estimate species upper thermal limits. We investigated if variation in body mass across the trophic levels could explain why higher trophic level organisms had narrower warming margins than lower trophic level organisms, however, we did not find support for this hypothesis. This study provides a critical first step in linking individual species vulnerabilities with whole ecosystem responses to climate change.

Regional occupancy increases for widespread species but decreases for narrowly distributed species in metacommunity time series

While human activities are known to elicit rapid turnover in species composition through time, the properties of the species that increase or decrease their spatial occupancy underlying this turnover are less clear. Here, we used an extensive dataset of 238 metacommunity time series of multiple taxa spread across the globe to evaluate whether species that are more widespread (large-ranged species) differed in how they changed their site occupancy over the 10-90 years the metacommunities were monitored relative to species that are more narrowly distributed (small-ranged species). We found that on average, large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy through time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease. These relationships were stronger in marine than in terrestrial and freshwater realms. However, in terrestrial regions, the directional changes in occupancy were less extreme in protected areas. Our findings provide evidence for systematic decreases in occupancy of small-ranged species, and that habitat protection could mitigate these losses in the face of environmental change.

The lack of genetic variation underlying thermal transcriptomic plasticity suggests limited adaptability of the Northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis

Introduction

Genetic variation underlies the populations’ potential to adapt to and persist in a changing environment, while phenotypic plasticity can play a key role in buffering the negative impacts of such change at the individual level.

Methods

We investigated the role of genetic variation in the thermal response of the northern shrimp Pandalus borealis, an ectotherm species distributed in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. More specifically, we estimated the proportion transcriptomic responses explained by genetic variance of female shrimp from three origins after 30 days of exposure to three temperature treatments.

Results

We characterized the P. borealis transcriptome (170,377 transcripts, of which 27.48% were functionally annotated) and then detected a total of 1,607 and 907 differentially expressed transcripts between temperatures and origins, respectively. Shrimp from different origins displayed high but similar level of transcriptomic plasticity in response to elevated temperatures. Differences in transcript expression among origins were not correlated to population genetic differentiation or diversity but to environmental conditions at origin during sampling.

Discussion

The lack of genetic variation explaining thermal plasticity suggests limited adaptability in this species’ response to future environmental changes. These results together with higher mortality observed at the highest temperature indicate that the thermal niche of P. borealis will likely be restricted to higher latitudes in the future. This prediction concurs with current decreases in abundance observed at the southern edge of this species geographical distribution, as it is for other cold-adapted crustaceans.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

Microhabitat-specific diurnal metabolomic responses of the intertidal limpet Cellana toreuma to winter low temperature

High-throughput determination of circadian rhythms in metabolic response and their divergent patterns in various microhabitats are crucial for understanding how organisms respond to environmental stresses. A mid-intertidal limpet Cellana toreuma was collected at various time points across both daytime and nighttime in winter during low tide for investigating the diurnal metabolomic responses to cold stress and elucidating the divergent metabolic responses to temperature variations across microhabitats. Temperatures of emergent rock microhabitats were lower than the tidal pool and even aggravated at night. A series of metabolomic responses exhibited coordinated diurnal changes in winter. Metabolic responses which were associated with cellular stress responses and energy metabolism of emergent rock microhabitat individuals were highly induced compared to the tidal pool ones. This study shed light on the diurnal patterns of metabolomic responses of intertidal molluscs in the field and emphasized the variations in metabolic responses between microhabitats.

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients

Models applying space-for-time substitution, including those projecting ecological responses to climate change, generally assume an elevational and latitudinal equivalence that is rarely tested. However, a mismatch may lead to different capacities for providing climatic refuge to dispersing species. We compiled community data on zooplankton, ectothermic animals that form the consumer basis of most aquatic food webs, from over 1200 mountain lakes and ponds across western North America to assess biodiversity along geographic temperature gradients spanning nearly 3750 m elevation and 30° latitude. Species richness, phylogenetic relationships, and functional diversity all showed contrasting responses across gradients, with richness metrics plateauing at low elevations but exhibiting intermediate latitudinal maxima. The nonmonotonic/hump-shaped diversity trends with latitude emerged from geographic interactions, including weaker latitudinal relationships at higher elevations (i.e. in alpine lakes) linked to different underlying drivers. Here, divergent patterns of phylogenetic and functional trait dispersion indicate shifting roles of environmental filters and limiting similarity in the assembly of communities with increasing elevation and latitude. We further tested whether gradients showed common responses to warmer temperatures and found that mean annual (but not seasonal) temperatures predicted elevational richness patterns but failed to capture consistent trends with latitude, meaning that predictions of how climate change will influence diversity also differ between gradients. Contrasting responses to elevation- and latitude-driven warming suggest different limits on climatic refugia and likely greater barriers to northward range expansion.

A novel and high-throughput approach to assess photosynthetic thermal tolerance of kelp using chlorophyll α fluorometry

Foundation seaweed species are experiencing widespread declines and localized extinctions due to increased instability of sea surface temperature. Characterizing temperature thresholds are useful for predicting patterns of change and identifying species most vulnerable to extremes. Existing methods for characterizing seaweed thermal tolerance produce diverse metrics and are often time-consuming, making comparisons between species and techniques difficult, hindering insight into global patterns of change. Using three kelp species, we adapted a high-throughput method - previously used in terrestrial plant thermal biology - for use on kelps. This method employs temperature-dependent fluorescence (T-F0 ) curves under heating or cooling regimes to determine the critical temperature (Tcrit ) of photosystem II (PSII), i.e., the breakpoint between slow and fast rise fluorescence response to changing temperature, enabling rapid assays of photosynthetic thermal tolerance using a standardized metric. This method enables characterization of Tcrit for up to 48 samples per two-hour assay, demonstrating the capacity of T-F0 curves for high-throughput assays of thermal tolerance. Temperature-dependent fluorescence curves and their derived metric, Tcrit , may offer a timely and powerful new method for the field of phycology, enabling characterization and comparison of photosynthetic thermal tolerance of seaweeds across many populations, species, and biomes.

Evenness, biodiversity, and ecosystem function of intertidal communities along the Italian coasts: Experimental short-term response to ambient and extreme air temperatures

Biodiversity can promote ecosystem functioning in both terrestrial and marine environments, emphasizing the necessity of biodiversity conservation in order to preserve critical ecosystem functions and associated services. However, the role of biodiversity in buffering ecosystem functioning under extreme events caused by climate change remains a major scientific issue, especially for intertidal systems experiencing stressors from both terrestrial and marine drivers. We performed a regional-scale field experiment along the Italian coast to investigate the response of unmanipulated intertidal communities (by using a natural biodiversity gradient) to low tide aerial exposure to both ambient and short-term extreme temperatures. We specifically investigated the relationship between Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) using different biodiversity indexes (species richness, functional diversity and evenness) and the response of the intertidal communities' ecosystem functioning (community respiration rates). Furthermore, we investigated which other environmental variables could influence the BEF relationship. We show that evenness explained a greater variation in intertidal community ecosystem functioning under both temperature conditions. Species richness (the most often used diversity metric in BEF research) was unrelated to ecosystem functioning, while functional diversity was significantly related to respiration under ambient but not extreme temperatures. We highlight the importance of the short-term thermal history of the communities (measured as body temperature) in the BEF relationship as it was consistently identified as the best predictor or response under both temperature conditions. However, Chlorophyll a in seawater and variation in sea surface temperature also contributed to the BEF relationship under ambient but not under extreme conditions, showing that short-duration climate-driven events can overcome local physiological adaptations. Our findings support the importance of the BEF relationship in intertidal communities, implying that systems with more diverse and homogeneous communities may be able to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures.

Climate risks to fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas

Climate change is one of the most concerning topics in the Anthropocene. Increasing sea water temperature will trigger a series of ecological consequences, altering the various functions and services that marine ecosystems provide for humans. Fisheries, specifically, will likely face the most direct impact. China provides unparalleled catches with enormous and intensive fishing effort, and China Seas are suffering from significantly increasing water temperature. However, uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas present challenges for the formulation of coping and adapting strategies. Here, we employed a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the climate risks of fishing species and fisheries of various provinces in China in the past decade, aiming to benefit the development and prioritization of appropriate adaptation options to climate change. Results show that considering the water temperature in the 2010s, 20 % of fishing species in the China Seas have one-fourth of their habitats unsuitable, and the situation will become worse with future warming scenarios in the 2050s when nearly half of species will have at least one-fourth of their habitats no longer suitable. Integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, climate risks to fisheries feature heterogeneity among provinces. Climate risks to fisheries of northern provinces are characterized by low hazard and high exposure, while the southern counterparts are largely determined by high hazard and low exposure. Climate change is threatening fishing species and remarkably altering fishery patterns in China Seas. Shifting fishing targets, increasing fishing efficiency, raising catch diversity, and updating fishery-related industries would be effective steps to help fisheries adapt to climate change, and adaptation strategies need to be tailored considering local realities.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

Tropicalization shifts herbivore pressure from seagrass to rocky reef communities

Climate-driven species redistributions are reshuffling the composition of marine ecosystems. How these changes alter ecosystem functions, however, remains poorly understood. Here we examine how impacts of herbivory change across a gradient of tropicalization in the Mediterranean Sea, which includes a steep climatic gradient and marked changes in plant nutritional quality and fish herbivore composition. We quantified individual feeding rates and behaviour of 755 fishes of the native Sarpa salpa, and non-native Siganus rivulatus and Siganus luridus. We measured herbivore and benthic assemblage composition across 20 sites along the gradient, spanning 30° of longitude and 8° of latitude. We coupled patterns in behaviour and composition with temperature measurements and nutrient concentrations to assess changes in herbivory under tropicalization. We found a transition in ecological impacts by fish herbivory across the Mediterranean from a predominance of seagrass herbivory in the west to a dominance of macroalgal herbivory in the east. Underlying this shift were changes in both individual feeding behaviour (i.e. food choice) and fish assemblage composition. The shift in feeding selectivity was consistent among temperate and warm-affiliated herbivores. Our findings suggest herbivory can contribute to the increased vulnerability of seaweed communities and reduced vulnerability of seagrass meadows in tropicalized ecosystems.

Molluscs-A ticking microbial bomb

Bivalve shellfish consumption (ark shells, clams, cockles, and oysters) has increased over the last decades. Following this trend, infectious disease outbreaks associated with their consumption have been reported more frequently. Molluscs are a diverse group of organisms found wild and farmed. They are common on our tables, but unfortunately, despite their great taste, they can also pose a threat as a potential vector for numerous species of pathogenic microorganisms. Clams, in particular, might be filled with pathogens because of their filter-feeding diet. This specific way of feeding favors the accumulation of excessive amounts of pathogenic microorganisms like Vibrio spp., including Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Arcobacter spp., and fecal coliforms, and intestinal enterococci. The problems of pathogen dissemination and disease outbreaks caused by exogenous bacteria in many geographical regions quickly became an unwanted effect of globalized food supply chains, global climate change, and natural pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, some pathogens like Shewanella spp., with high zoonotic potential, are spreading worldwide along with food transport. These bacteria, contained in food, are also responsible for the potential transmission of antibiotic-resistance genes to species belonging to the human microbiota. Finally, they end up in wastewater, thus colonizing new areas, which enables them to introduce new antibiotic-resistance genes (ARG) into the environment and extend the existing spectrum of ARGs already present in local biomes. Foodborne pathogens require modern methods of detection. Similarly, detecting ARGs is necessary to prevent resistance dissemination in new environments, thus preventing future outbreaks, which could threaten associated consumers and workers in the food processing industry.

The influence of climate change on food production and food safety

Food security and food safety are two concepts related to food risks. The majority of studies regarding climate change and food risks are related to the security of food provision. The objective of this study was to review the current state of knowledge of the influence of climate change on food production and food safety. The literature search was carried out by specifying each area individually (crops, ranching, fishing, food safety, etc.), including the term "climate change" and other specific factors such as CO₂, ozone, biotoxins, mortality, heat, etc.) The increase in carbon dioxide concentrations together with the increase in global temperatures theoretically produces greater yields in crops destined for human and animal consumption. However, the majority of studies have shown that crop yields are decreasing, due to the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Furthermore, these climate anomalies are irregularly distributed, with a greater impact on developing countries that have a lower capacity to address climate change. All of these factors result in greater uncertainty in terms of food provision and market speculation. An increase in average temperatures could lead to an increased risk of proliferation of micro-organisms that produce food-borne illnesses, such as salmonella and campylobacter. However, in developed countries with information systems that document the occurrence of these diseases over time, no clear trend has been determined, in part because of extensive food conservation controls.

Experimental temperatures shape host microbiome diversity and composition

Global climate change has led to more extreme thermal events. Plants and animals harbour diverse microbial communities, which may be vital for their physiological performance and help them survive stressful climatic conditions. The extent to which microbiome communities change in response to warming or cooling may be important for predicting host performance under global change. Using a meta-analysis of 1377 microbiomes from 43 terrestrial and aquatic species, we found a decrease in the amplicon sequence variant-level microbiome phylogenetic diversity and alteration of microbiome composition under both experimental warming and cooling. Microbiome beta dispersion was not affected by temperature changes. We showed that the host habitat and experimental factors affected microbiome diversity and composition more than host biological traits. In particular, aquatic organisms-especially in marine habitats-experienced a greater depletion in microbiome diversity under cold conditions, compared to terrestrial hosts. Exposure involving a sudden long and static temperature shift was associated with microbiome diversity loss, but this reduction was attenuated by prior-experimental lab acclimation or when a ramped regime (i.e., warming) was used. Microbial differential abundance and co-occurrence network analyses revealed several potential indicator bacterial classes for hosts in heated environments and on different biome levels. Overall, our findings improve our understanding on the impact of global temperature changes on animal and plant microbiome structures across a diverse range of habitats. The next step is to link these changes to measures of host fitness, as well as microbial community functions, to determine whether microbiomes can buffer some species against a more thermally variable and extreme world.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

Tolerance of high temperature and associated effects on reproduction in euedaphic Collembola

Studies show that tropical and mid-latitude terrestrial ectotherms are more vulnerable to global warming than species from high latitudes. However, thermal tolerance studies from these regions still lack soil invertebrates. In the present study, we investigated six euedaphic species of Collembola (of the genera Onychiurus and Protaphorura) sampled across latitudes ranging from 31° N to 64° N and determined their upper thermal limit (UTL) by static assays. In another experiment, we submitted springtails to high temperatures for exposure times, causing 5% to 30% mortality within each species. Survivors from this series of increasing heat injuries were used to determine the time-to-first-oviposition and the number of eggs produced following heat exposure. Two hypotheses are tested in this study: 1) heat tolerance of species correlates positively with the environmental temperature of their habitat; 2) the most heat-tolerant species require less time to regain reproduction and produce more eggs than the least heat-tolerant species. Results showed that the UTL positively correlates to the soil temperature of the sampling site. The sequence of UTL₆₀ (the temperature causing 50% mortality after 60 min of exposure) from highest to least was O. yodai > P. fimata > P. armata ≈ P. tricampata > P. macfadyeni > P. pseudovanderdrifti. Heat stress inflicted on springtails can delay reproduction in all species, and two species showed a reduced egg production rate after heat exposure. For heat stress causing up to 30% mortality, the most heat-tolerant species did not have advantages over the least heat-tolerant species for what concerns the recovery of reproduction. The relation between UTL and recovery from heat stress is not linear. Our study provides evidence for a potential long-term effect of high-temperature exposure on euedaphic species of Collembola and highlights the need for further studies on the effects of global warming on soil-living organisms.

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Registered report: Social face evaluation: ethnicity-specific differences in the judgement of trustworthiness of faces and facial parts

Social face evaluation is a common and consequential element of everyday life based on the judgement of trustworthiness. However, the particular facial regions that guide such trustworthiness judgements are largely unknown. It is also unclear whether different facial regions are consistently utilized to guide judgments for different ethnic groups, and whether previous exposure to specific ethnicities in one's social environment has an influence on trustworthiness judgements made from faces or facial regions. This registered report addressed these questions through a global online survey study that recruited Asian, Black, Latino, and White raters (N = 4580). Raters were shown full faces and specific parts of the face for an ethnically diverse, sex-balanced set of 32 targets and rated targets' trustworthiness. Multilevel modelling showed that in forming trustworthiness judgements, raters relied most strongly on the eyes (with no substantial information loss vis-à-vis full faces). Corroborating ingroup-outgroup effects, raters rated faces and facial parts of targets with whom they shared their ethnicity, sex, or eye color as significantly more trustworthy. Exposure to ethnic groups in raters' social environment predicted trustworthiness ratings of other ethnic groups in nuanced ways. That is, raters from the ambient ethnic majority provided slightly higher trustworthiness ratings for stimuli of their own ethnicity compared to minority ethnicities. In contrast, raters from an ambient ethnic minority (e.g., immigrants) provided substantially lower trustworthiness ratings for stimuli of the ethnic majority. Taken together, the current study provides a new window into the psychological processes underlying social face evaluation and its cultural generalizability. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 7 January 2022. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.18319244 .

A comprehensive database of amphibian heat tolerance

Rising temperatures represent a significant threat to the survival of ectothermic animals. As such, upper thermal limits represent an important trait to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to changing temperatures. For instance, one may use upper thermal limits to estimate current and future thermal safety margins (i.e., the proximity of upper thermal limits to experienced temperatures), use this trait together with other physiological traits in species distribution models, or investigate the plasticity and evolvability of these limits for buffering the impacts of changing temperatures. While datasets on thermal tolerance limits have been previously compiled, they sometimes report single estimates for a given species, do not present measures of data dispersion, and are biased towards certain parts of the globe. To overcome these limitations, we systematically searched the literature in seven languages to produce the most comprehensive dataset to date on amphibian upper thermal limits, spanning 3,095 estimates across 616 species. This resource will represent a useful tool to evaluate the vulnerability of amphibians, and ectotherms more generally, to changing temperatures.

Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago barcoded: Fish diversity in the remoteness and DNA barcodes reference library for metabarcoding monitoring

In order to monitor the effects of anthropogenic pressures in ecosystems, molecular techniques can be used to characterize species composition. Among molecular markers capable of identifying species, the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) is the most used. However, new possibilities of biodiversity profiling have become possible, in which molecular fragments of medium and short-length can now be analyzed in metabarcoding studies. Here, a survey of fishes from the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago was barcoded using the COI marker, which allowed the identification of 21 species. This paved the way to further investigate the fish biodiversity of the archipelago, transitioning from barcoding to metabarcoding analysis. As preparatory steps for future metabarcoding studies, the first extensive COI library of fishes listed for these islands was constructed and includes new data generated in this survey as well as previously available data, resulting in a final database with 9,183 sequences from 169 species and 63 families of fish. A new primer specifically designed for those fishes was tested in silico to amplify a region of 262 bp. The new approach should guarantee a reliable surveillance of the archipelago and can be used to generate policies that will enhance the archipelago’s protection.

Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models

Recent work has demonstrated that changes in resource availability can alter a consumer's thermal performance curve (TPC). When resources decline, the optimal temperature and breadth of thermal performance also decline, leading to a greater risk of warming than predicted by static TPCs. We investigate the effect of temperature on coupled consumer-resource dynamics, focusing on the potential for changes in the consumer TPC to alter extinction risk. Coupling consumer and resource dynamics generally reduces the potential for resource decline to exacerbate the effects of warming via changes to the TPC due to a reduction in top-down control when consumers near the limits of their thermal performance curve. However, if resources are more sensitive to warming, consumer TPCs can be reshaped by declining resources, leading to increased extinction risk. Our work elucidates the role of top-down and bottom-up regulation in determining the extent to which changes in resource density alter consumer TPCs.

Developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance: Ontogenetic variation, persistence, and future directions

Understanding the factors affecting thermal tolerance is crucial for predicting the impact climate change will have on ectotherms. However, the role developmental plasticity plays in allowing populations to cope with thermal extremes is poorly understood. Here, we meta-analyse how thermal tolerance is initially and persistently impacted by early (embryonic and juvenile) thermal environments by using data from 150 experimental studies on 138 ectothermic species. Thermal tolerance only increased by 0.13°C per 1°C change in developmental temperature and substantial variation in plasticity (~36%) was the result of shared evolutionary history and species ecology. Aquatic ectotherms were more than three times as plastic as terrestrial ectotherms. Notably, embryos expressed weaker but more heterogenous plasticity than older life stages, with numerous responses appearing as non-adaptive. While developmental temperatures did not have persistent effects on thermal tolerance overall, persistent effects were vastly under-studied, and their direction and magnitude varied with ontogeny. Embryonic stages may represent a critical window of vulnerability to changing environments and we urge researchers to consider early life stages when assessing the climate vulnerability of ectotherms. Overall, our synthesis suggests that developmental changes in thermal tolerance rarely reach levels of perfect compensation and may provide limited benefit in changing environments.

Finding the right thermal limit: a framework to reconcile ecological, physiological and methodological aspects of CTmax in ectotherms

Upper thermal limits (CTmax) are frequently used to parameterize the fundamental niche of ectothermic animals and to infer biogeographical distribution limits under current and future climate scenarios. However, there is considerable debate associated with the methodological, ecological and physiological definitions of CTmax. The recent (re)introduction of the thermal death time (TDT) model has reconciled some of these issues and now offers a solid mathematical foundation to model CTmax by considering both intensity and duration of thermal stress. Nevertheless, the physiological origin and boundaries of this temperature–duration model remain unexplored. Supported by empirical data, we here outline a reconciling framework that integrates the TDT model, which operates at stressful temperatures, with the classic thermal performance curve (TPC) that typically describes biological functions at permissive temperatures. Further, we discuss how the TDT model is founded on a balance between disruptive and regenerative biological processes that ultimately defines a critical boundary temperature (Tc) separating the TDT and TPC models. Collectively, this framework allows inclusion of both repair and accumulation of heat stress, and therefore also offers a consistent conceptual approach to understand the impact of high temperature under fluctuating thermal conditions. Further, this reconciling framework allows improved experimental designs to understand the physiological underpinnings and ecological consequences of ectotherm heat tolerance.

Brain dysfunction during warming is linked to oxygen limitation in larval zebrafish

Understanding the physiological mechanisms that limit animal thermal tolerance is crucial in predicting how animals will respond to increasingly severe heat waves. Despite their importance for understanding climate change impacts, these mechanisms underlying the upper thermal tolerance limits of animals are largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that the upper thermal tolerance in fish is limited by the thermal tolerance of the brain and is ultimately caused by a global brain depolarization. In this study, we developed methods for measuring the upper thermal limit (CT_max) in larval zebrafish (Danio rerio) with simultaneous recordings of brain activity using GCaMP6s calcium imaging in both free-swimming and agar-embedded fish. We discovered that during warming, CT_max precedes, and is therefore not caused by, a global brain depolarization. Instead, the CT_max coincides with a decline in spontaneous neural activity and a loss of neural response to visual stimuli. By manipulating water oxygen levels both up and down, we found that oxygen availability during heating affects locomotor-related neural activity, the neural response to visual stimuli, and CT_max. Our results suggest that the mechanism limiting the upper thermal tolerance in zebrafish larvae is insufficient oxygen availability causing impaired brain function.

Harbours as unique environmental sites of multiple anthropogenic stressors on fish hormonal systems

Fish development and acclimation to environmental conditions are strongly mediated by the hormonal endocrine system. In environments contaminated by anthropogenic stressors, hormonal pathway alterations can be detrimental for growth, survival, fitness, and at a larger scale for population maintenance. In the context of increasingly contaminated marine environments worldwide, numerous laboratory studies have confirmed the effect of one or a combination of pollutants on fish hormonal systems. However, this has not been confirmed in situ. In this review, we explore the body of knowledge related to the influence of anthropogenic stressors disrupting fish endocrine systems, recent advances (focusing on thyroid hormones and stress hormones such as cortisol), and potential research perspectives. Through this review, we highlight how harbours can be used as "in situ laboratories" given the variety of anthropogenic stressors (such as plastic, chemical, sound, light pollution, and invasive species) that can be simultaneously investigated in harbours over long periods of time.

The role of continental shelf bathymetry in shaping marine range shifts in the face of climate change

As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid-depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area.

Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean

Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.

Thermal traits govern the response of microbial community dynamics and ecosystem functioning to warming

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin the dynamics of community turnover in response to environmental change is critical to predicting how warming will influence ecosystem functioning. Here, we quantify the effect of changing temperature on community composition and ecosystem functioning via the action of ecological selection on population-level thermal traits. To achieve this, we use microbes isolated from a network of geothermal streams in Iceland where in situ temperatures span 8–38°C within a single catchment. We first quantified variability in thermal tolerance between taxa, and then assembled synthetic communities along a broad thermal gradient to explore how temperature-driven selection on thermal tolerance traits shaped the emergent community structures and functions. We found marked changes in community structure and composition with temperature, such that communities exposed to extreme temperatures (10, 35°C) had highly asymmetric biomass distributions and low taxonomic richness. Thermal optima were a good predictor of the presence and relative abundance of taxa in the high-temperature treatments. We also found that the evenness of the abundance distribution was related to ecosystem production, such that communities with more equitable abundance distribution were also the most productive. Our results highlight the utility of using a multi-level approach that links population-level traits with community structure and ecosystem functioning to better understand how ecological communities will respond to global warming.

Temperate and tropical lizards are vulnerable to climate warming due to increased water loss and heat stress

Climate warming has imposed profound impacts on species globally. Understanding the vulnerabilities of species from different latitudinal regions to warming climates is critical for biological conservation. Using five species of Takydromus lizards as a study system, we quantified physiological and life-history responses and geography range change across latitudes under climate warming. Using integrated biophysical models and hybrid species distribution models, we found: (i) thermal safety margin is larger at high latitudes and is predicted to decrease under climate warming for lizards at all latitudes; (ii) climate warming will speed up embryonic development and increase annual activity time of adult lizards, but will exacerbate water loss of adults across all latitudes; and (iii) species across latitudes are predicted to experience habitat contraction under climate warming due to different limitations-tropical and subtropical species are vulnerable due to increased extremely high temperatures, whereas temperate species are vulnerable due to both extremely high temperatures and increased water loss. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the vulnerability of species from different latitudinal regions to climate warming in ectotherms, and also highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors, behaviour, physiology and life-history responses in predicting the risk of species to climate warming.

Exercise training does not affect heat tolerance in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

The progression of climate warming will expose ectotherms to transient heatwave events and temperatures above their tolerance range at increased frequencies. It is therefore pivotal that we understand species' physiological limits and the capacity for various controls to plastically alter these thresholds. Exercise training could have beneficial impacts on organismal heat tolerance through improvements in cardio-respiratory capacity, but this remains unexplored. Using juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), we tested the hypothesis that exercise training improves heat tolerance through enhancements in oxygen-carrying capacity. Fish were trained once daily at 60% of their maximum sustainable swim speed, U_CRIT, for 60 min. Tolerance to acute warming was assessed following three weeks of exercise training, measured as the critical thermal maximum (CT_MAX). CT_MAX measurements were coupled with examinations of the oxygen carrying capacity (haematocrit, haemoglobin concentration, relative ventricle size, and relative splenic mass) as critical components of the oxygen transport cascade in fish. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that exercise training did not raise the CT_MAX of juvenile Chinook salmon with a mean CT_MAX increase of just 0.35 °C compared to unexercised control fish. Training also failed to improve the oxygen carrying capacity of fish. Exercise training remains a novel strategy against acute warming that requires substantial fine-tuning before it can be applied to the management of commercial and wild fishes.