Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End-of-2021 Assessment

Timely, high-quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on life expectancies in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic-induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12-month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub-Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.

Deciphering Multifactorial Correlations of COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Amazonas suffered greatly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mortality and fatality rates soared and scarcity of oxygen and healthcare supplies led the health system and funerary services to collapse. Thus, we analyzed the trends of incidence, mortality, and lethality indicators of COVID-19 and the dynamics of their main determinants in the state of Amazonas from March 2020 to June 2021. This is a time-series ecological study. We calculated the lethality, mortality, and incidence rates with official and public data from the Health Department. We used the Prais-Winsten regression and trends were classified as stationary, increasing, or decreasing. The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also estimated. Differences were considered significant when p < 0.05. We extracted 396,772 cases of and 13,420 deaths from COVID-19; 66% of deaths were in people aged over 60; 57% were men. Cardiovascular diseases were the most common comorbidity (28.84%), followed by diabetes (25.35%). Rural areas reported 53% of the total cases and 31% of the total deaths. The impact of COVID-19 in the Amazon is not limited to the direct effects of the pandemic itself; it may present characteristics of a syndemic due to the interaction of COVID-19 with pre-existing illnesses, endemic diseases, and social vulnerabilities.

Pandemia e interdisciplinaridade: desafios para a saúde coletiva

RESUMO Este artigo discute o papel da interdisciplinaridade na análise e no enfrentamento da crise sanitária e social global suscitada pela pandemia de Covid-19. Defende-se a necessidade de se repensarem as divisões entre mundo natural e sociedade, com destaque para a questão ambiental, e a nova conformação do campo da informação e comunicação e seus impactos na sociedade contemporânea. Entende-se a pandemia de Covid-19 como um fenômeno inteiramente novo que põe em evidência, por vezes em aceleração, uma série de tendências, mas que pode implicar inflexões e mudanças cujo rumo não está dado. Destaca-se a centralidade da área de saúde coletiva no esforço interdisciplinar para a definição de agendas científicas e, também, de propostas de políticas públicas. Conclui-se que o fortalecimento de pesquisas interdisciplinares especialmente atentas às interrelações de sistemas naturais e sociais são e serão essenciais para a superação da crise atual e das prováveis emergências sanitárias futuras.

Buscando a vida na economia e na etnografia

Resumo Este ensaio propõe uma pragmática das relações entre vida e economia, explorando regiões de contato entre ambos os conceitos. O foco são as chamadas “emergências econômicas”, nas quais se coloca em jogo o acesso aos “essenciais para a vida”, quando não a própria vida biológica de seres humanos. Nas emergências, as relações entre vida e economia passam a ser objeto de controvérsia pública, aparecem nos posicionamentos dos especialistas e, também, no dia a dia das pessoas que fazem as suas vidas mobilizando disposições incorporadas no tempo longo de outras crises. O texto tematiza formas monetárias de calcular o valor da vida que sustentam o conceito de custo de vida e modos de articular a materialidade da vida com a moralidade da pessoa na busca pela vida e por uma vida que merece ser vivida em situações de extrema pobreza e precariedade. O fundamento etnográfico do ensaio e do programa de pesquisas que ele propõe está em pesquisas realizadas sobre as hiperinflações brasileira e argentina de fim do século passado, sobre as dinâmicas econômicas em paisagens de extrema pobreza, como as dos bairros populares de Port-au-Prince, capital do Haiti, especialmente no período posterior ao terremoto de 12 de janeiro de 2010, e sobre alguns traços das atmosferas da emergência que envolvem a crise suscitada pela pandemia de covid-19.

Measuring misclassification of Covid-19 as garbage codes: Results of investigating 1,365 deaths and implications for vital statistics in Brazil

The purpose of this article is to quantify the amount of misclassification of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality occurring in hospitals and other health facilities in selected cities in Brazil, discuss potential factors contributing to this misclassification, and consider the implications for vital statistics. Hospital deaths assigned to causes classified as garbage code (GC) COVID-related cases (severe acute respiratory syndrome, pneumonia unspecified, sepsis, respiratory failure and ill-defined causes) were selected in three Brazilian state capitals. Data from medical charts and forensic reports were extracted from standard forms and analyzed by study physicians who re-assigned the underlying cause based on standardized criteria. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed and the potential impact in vital statistics in the country was also evaluated. Among 1,365 investigated deaths due to GC-COVID-related causes, COVID-19 was detected in 17.3% in the age group 0-59 years and 25.5% deaths in 60 years and over. These GCs rose substantially in 2020 in the country and were responsible for 211,611 registered deaths. Applying observed proportions by age, location and specific GC-COVID-related cause to national data, there would be an increase of 37,163 cases in the total of COVID-19 deaths, higher in the elderly. In conclusion, important undercount of deaths from COVID-19 among GC-COVID-related causes was detected in three selected capitals of Brazil. After extrapolating the study results for national GC-COVID-related deaths we infer that the burden of COVID-19 disease in Brazil in official vital statistics was probably under estimated by at least 18% in the country in 2020.

Social Distancing, Physical Activity, and COVID-19: Implications for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil

A lack of glycemic control and diabetes are risk factors for complications related to COVID-19, and social isolation can hinder adherence to physical activity. Thus, this study sought to assess the impacts of social distancing on the practice of physical activity of individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). This was a transversal study carried out using an online form to collect sociodemographic, practice of physical activity, and social distancing data. Of the 472 participants, 85.6% reported that they were respecting the steps of social distancing. Social distancing affected the practice of physical activity in adherence to the habit of practicing in frequency, duration, and perception of change in intensity. An association was found between noticing a lot of stress in the home environment and stopping physical activity; lower levels of tolerance to social distancing were associated with less physical activity, and maintaining the habit of practicing physical activity was associated with decreasing the intensity of the practice. Hence, social distancing harmed the practice of physical activity as part of the treatment of individuals with T1DM, both in the habit of practicing and in the characteristics of these practices of physical activity, such as frequency, duration, and intensity.

In-hospital case fatality ratio due to COVID-19 in four Brazilian state capitals and its possible temporal relationship with the Gamma variant, 2020-2021

OBJECTIVE

To describe in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) case fatality ratios due to COVID-19 in four Brazilian state capitals, during the months of epidemic peaks and previous months.

METHODS

This was an ecological study using monthly data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, between 2020-2021, in individuals aged 20 years or older. Case fatality ratio and mortality rate were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

RESULTS

In Manaus, the capital city of the state of Amazonas, ICU case fatality ratio among those >59 years old was lower in December/2020 (80.9%; 95%CI 78.4;83.3) and during the peak in January/2021 (79.9%; 95%CI 77.4;82.5), compared to the peak in April/2020 (88.2%; 95%CI 86.1;90.3). In São Paulo, the capital city of the state of São Paulo, Curitiba, the capital city of the state of Paraná, and Porto Alegre, the capital city of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, there was a decrease or stability in ICU and in-hospital case fatality ratio in January/2021, compared to the reference month in 2020.

CONCLUSION

In January/2021, in-hospital and ICU case fatality ratios decreased or remained stable in the four state capitals, especially in Manaus, and during the epidemic peak with the prevalence of the Gamma variant.

Investigating regional excess mortality during 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in selected Latin American countries

In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

NOTE

The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 .

ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY

COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.

COVID-19 as the leading cause of hospital deaths in the Brazilian public health system in 2020

Objectives: To describe the profile of hospital deaths in Brazil according to cause of admission during the pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic periods (2020).

Methods: Descriptive study based on individual-level records of all hospital admissions with death outcomes reimbursed by the Brazilian National Health System in 2019 and 2020.

Results: The number of hospital deaths increased by 16.7% in 2020 compared with 2019 (522,686 vs 609,755). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was associated with 19.5% (118,879) of all hospital deaths in 2020, surpassing diseases of the circulatory system (15.4%, 93,735) and diseases of the respiratory system (14.9%, 91,035).

Conclusions: COVID-19 was the main cause of death in public hospitals in Brazil in 2020.