MELD 3.0: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Updated for the Modern Era

Survival benefit of liver transplantation utilizing marginal donor organ according to ABO blood type

The current liver transplantation (LT) allocation policy focuses on the MELD scores, often overlooking factors like blood type and survival benefits. Understanding blood types' impact on survival benefits is crucial for optimizing the MELD 3.0 classification. This study used the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry database (2003-2020) to identify LT characteristics per ABO blood type and to determine the optimal MELD 3.0 scores for each blood type, based on survival benefits. The study included candidates of LT aged 18 years or older listed for LT (total N=150,815; A: 56,546, AB: 5841, B: 18,500, O: 69,928). Among these, 87,409 individuals (58.0%) underwent LT (A:32,156, AB: 4,362, B: 11,786, O: 39,105). Higher transplantation rates were observed in AB and B groups, with lower median MELD 3.0 scores at transplantation (AB: 21, B: 24 vs. A/O: 26, p <0.01) and shorter waiting times (AB: 101 d, B:172 d vs. A: 211 d, O: 201 d, p <0.01). A preference for donation after cardiac death (DCD) was seen in A and O recipients. Survival benefit analysis indicated that B blood type required higher MELD 3.0 scores for transplantation than A and O (donation after brain death transplantation: ≥15 in B vs. ≥11 in A/O; DCD transplantation: ≥21 in B vs. ≥11 in A, ≥15 in O). The study suggests revising the allocation policy to consider blood type for improved post-LT survival. This calls for personalized LT policies, recommending higher MELD 3.0 thresholds, particularly for individuals with type B blood.

Variation in intention-to-treat survival by MELD subtypes: All models created for end-stage liver disease are not equal

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Kidney dysfunction is a major determinant of prognosis in patients with decompensated cirrhosis awaiting transplantation. We hypothesized that for identical model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores at listing, outcomes before and after liver transplantation may vary if the predominant driver of the MELD score is serum creatinine (Cr) vs. serum bilirubin (Br) or international normalized ratio (INR).

METHODS

We evaluated all adult patients registered for liver transplantation (LT) between 2016-2020 and excluded patients receiving MELD exceptions or undergoing dual organ transplantation. Using K-Means clustering analysis, we classified each patient as MELD-Br, MELD-INR or MELD-Cr depending on the dominant variable for their MELD score. The primary outcome was intent-to-treat (ITT) survival, defined as survival within 1 year from listing with or without LT.

RESULTS

MELD scores of LT waitlist registrants were clustered into three subtypes: MELD-Br (n = 13,658), MELD-INR (n = 13,809), and MELD-Cr (n = 12,412). One-year ITT survival rates were 78% (MELD-Br), 75% (MELD-INR), and 65% (MELD-Cr), p <0.01. ITT survival was lower for each MELD subtype for females compared to males (e.g. MELD-Cr: 63% females vs. 67% males, p <0.0001). The MELD-Cr subtype had the highest MELD at listing (MELD-Cr 23.4 vs. MELD-Br 19.2 vs. MELD-INR 21.0) and the largest decline in MELD over 3 months (23% vs. 12% vs. 21%). In adjusted analyses including MELD-Na, MELD-Cr was associated with higher waitlist mortality (hazard ratio 1.339, 95% CI 1.279-1.402) and lower LT rates (hazard ratio 0.688, 95% CI 0.664-0.713) compaed to the other subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

For equivalent listing practices, registrants with the MELD-Cr subtype have lower ITT survival. MELD subtype may serve as a more sophisticated variable for dynamic assessment of mortality risk and to guide organ allocation.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an excellent predictor of waitlist mortality; however, our work highlights that the driver of a patient's MELD score matters and particularly those driven by elevated creatinine are associated with lower 1-year intent-to-treat survival. The 1-year intent-to-treat survival is also lower for women compared to men within the Cr-dominant subtype. These results are important for physicians and patients undergoing LT evaluation as creatinine may serve as a marker of prognosis and even if creatinine levels improve the prognosis remains poor, necessitating discussion about alternative pathways for transplant. Our work also highlights that the type of kidney injury matters, in that those with acute kidney injury were more likely to die or remain on the waitlist than those with chronic kidney disease within the creatinine-dominant subtype.

The importance of equity in transplant oncology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Transplant oncology encompasses and utilizes liver transplantation (LT) in combination with other aspects of cancer care to offer improved long-term outcomes for patients with liver cancer, but not all patients have equal access and ability to undergo LT. Social determinants of health may negatively impact a patient's ability to receive liver-related oncologic care, including LT. This review highlights recent work exposing gaps in access to LT, including transplant oncology, and interventions to ameliorate these disparities.

RECENT FINDINGS

Members of racial and ethnic minorities and indigenous groups, females, socioeconomically disadvantaged persons, and patients from rural areas are less likely to undergo LT. Recent studies have also described programs that have successfully mitigated some of the barriers in access to transplant oncology that these patients experience, including targeted outreach programs and access to virtual healthcare.

SUMMARY

Disparities in access to LT for liver cancer are increasingly well described, but additional research is needed to find effective ways to ameliorate these differences.

Health disparities in cirrhosis care and liver transplantation

Morbidity and mortality from cirrhosis are substantial and increasing. Health disparities in cirrhosis and liver transplantation are reflective of inequities along the entire spectrum of chronic liver disease care, from screening and diagnosis to prevention and treatment of liver-related complications. The key populations experiencing disparities in health status and healthcare delivery include racial and ethnic minority groups, sexual and gender minorities, people of lower socioeconomic status and underserved rural communities. These disparities lead to delayed diagnosis of chronic liver disease and complications of cirrhosis (for example, hepatocellular carcinoma), to differences in treatment of chronic liver disease and its complications, and ultimately to unequal access to transplantation for those with end-stage liver disease. Calling out these disparities is only the first step towards implementing solutions that can improve health equity and clinical outcomes for everyone. Multi-level interventions along the care continuum for chronic liver disease are needed to mitigate these disparities and provide equitable access to care.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounting for approximately 90% of primary liver cancers. Advances in diagnostic and therapeutic tools, along with improved understanding of their application, are transforming patient treatment. Integrating these innovations into clinical practice presents challenges and necessitates guidance. These clinical practice guidelines offer updated advice for managing patients with HCC and provide a comprehensive review of pertinent data. Key updates from the 2018 EASL guidelines include personalised surveillance based on individual risk assessment and the use of new tools, standardisation of liver imaging procedures and diagnostic criteria, use of minimally invasive surgery in complex cases together with updates on the integrated role of liver transplantation, transitions between surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies, the role of radiation therapies, and the use of combination immunotherapies at various stages of disease. Above all, there is an absolute need for a multiparametric assessment of individual risks and benefits, considering the patient's perspective, by a multidisciplinary team encompassing various specialties.

Measured glomerular filtration rate predicts liver related deaths better than estimated glomerular filtration rate in advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Renal dysfunction is prevalent in advanced chronic liver disease (aCLD) and is associated to liver-related death (LRD). This makes a reliable evaluation of renal function (RF) a crucial aspect. RF can be estimated by formulas or measured by gold standard method. Estimated RF is not reliable in aCLD. However, there is a lack of information on the reliability of formulas in the prediction of LRD.

METHODS

We analysed a cohort of patients with aCLD in whom RF was measured by the plasma clearance of iohexol (mGFR) and estimated (eGFR) by formulas: MDRD, CKD-EPI, Royal Free Hospital (RFHC), GRAIL and Mindikoglu-eGFR. LRD was defined as death from hepatic causes. Multivariable analysis was used to evaluate association of mGFR or eGFR with LRD.

RESULTS

161 patients were evaluated, with median follow-up of 28 months, 58 died from LRD. In overall group mGFR (OR 0.99; p = 0.022) and formulas: CKD-EPI (OR 0.98; p = 0.044), GRAIL (OR 0.98; p = 0.038) was associated with LRD. In patients with normal creatinine levels (≤ 1.1 mg/dL), mGFR (OR 0.99; p = 0.031) was whereas any formula was not associated with LRD.

CONCLUSIONS

eGFR appears as an unreliable method for predicting LRDs in aCLD, especially in those with lower creatinine levels. By contrast, mGFR seems to be a superior predictor.

Association of nonstandardized model for end-stage liver disease score exceptions with waitlist mortality in adult liver transplant candidates

In the US liver allocation system, nonstandardized model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) exceptions (NSEs) increase the waitlist priority of candidates whose MELD scores are felt to underestimate their true medical urgency. We determined whether NSEs accurately depict pretransplant mortality risk by performing mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models and estimating concordance indices. We also studied the change in frequency of NSEs after the National Liver Review Board's implementation in May 2019. Between June 2016 and April 2022, 60,322 adult candidates were listed, of whom 10,280 (17.0%) received an NSE at least once. The mean allocation MELD was 23.9, an increase of 12.0 points from the mean laboratory MELD of 11.9 (P < .001). A 1-point increase in allocation MELD score due to an NSE was associated with, on average, a 2% reduction in hazard of pretransplant death (cause-specific hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00; P = .02) compared with those with the same laboratory MELD. Laboratory MELD was more accurate than allocation MELD with NSEs in rank-ordering candidates (c-index: 0.889 vs 0.857). The proportion of candidates with NSEs decreased significantly after the National Liver Review Board from 21.5% to 12.8% (P < .001). NSEs substantially increase the waitlist priority of candidates with objectively low medical urgency.

Epidemiology of liver diseases: global disease burden and forecasted research trends

We assessed the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with various liver diseases, including alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B/C virus infections (HBV or HCV), liver cancer, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), and other chronic liver diseases, from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Additionally, we analyzed the global trends in hepatology research and drug development. From 2000 to 2019, prevalence rates increased for ALD, MASLD and other liver diseases, while they decreased for HBV, HCV, and liver cancer. Countries with a high socio-demographic index (SDI) exhibited the lowest mortality rates and DALYs. The burden of liver diseases varied due to factors like sex and region. In nine representative countries, MASLD, along with hepatobiliary cancer, showed highest increase in funding in hepatology research. Globally, the major research categories in hepatology papers from 2000 to 2019 were cancer, pathobiology, and MASLD. The United States (U.S.) was at the forefront of hepatology research, with China gradually increasing its influence over time. Hepatologists worldwide are increasingly focusing on studying the communication between the liver and other organs, while underestimating the research on ALD. Cancer, HCV, and MASLD were the primary diseases targeted for therapeutic development in clinical trials. However, the proportion of new drugs approved for the treatment of liver diseases was relatively low among all newly approved drugs in the U.S., China, Japan, and the European Union. Notably, there were no approved drug for the treatment of ALD in the world.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Serum Golgi Protein 73 in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prognosis and severity of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) cannot be well-identified by serum biomarkers. The present study aims to determine the role of serum Golgi protein 73 (GP73) in predicting the prognosis and severity of liver necrotizing inflammation induced by HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

A total of 427 chronic HBV-infected patients were included for the present study. Among these patients, 179 patients had chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 96 patients had HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC), and 152 patients had HBV-ACLF. The baseline and dynamic changes in serum GP73 levels were measured and compared in CHB, LC and HBV-ACLF patients.

RESULTS

The serum GP73 levels were significantly greater in HBV-ACLF patients when compared to CHB and LC patients. Furthermore, serum GP73 demonstrated excellent performance in distinguishing HBV-ACLF from CHB and LC, with an area under the curve of 0.969 and 0.824, respectively. In the logistic regression analysis, a high GP73 level was identified as an independent risk factor associated with death within 3 months, and the optimal cut-off level was 274.59 ng/mL. The serum GP73 levels significantly decreased and remained stable at approximately 6 months for survivors.

CONCLUSION

Serum GP73 may serve as a valuable biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of HBV-ACLF patients.

Plasma galectin-3 can be considered as a non-invasive marker to predict the prognosis of ACLF patients with new typing

Very recently, we creatively put forward a new classification for ACLF patients, which lays the foundation for the establishment of prognostic model that can accurately predict the prognosis of ACLF patients. Herein, we found: galectin-3 levels were higher in type A ACLF patients compared to those of type B patients; galectin-3 expression was closely correlated with TBil, PTA/INR and MELD; galectin-3 is an independent predictive factor for rapid progression in ACLF, and exhibited superior predictive value for the prognosis of type A ACLF patients than MELD score; and the survival rate was remarkably higher in ACLF patients with lower galectin-3 expression. Collectively, galectin-3 can be considered as a non-invasive biomarker to predict the prognosis of ACLF patients with new typing. Our findings help advance the time window of prognosis prediction for type A and type B ACLF patients from 4 weeks to the baseline, thereby identifying ACLF patients who really need liver transplantation earlier and improving the survival of ACLF patients.

Systematic Sex-Based Inequity in the MELD Score-Based Allocation System for Liver Transplantation in Germany

In liver allocation systems based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, sex inequities have been identified in countries with high organ donation rates. Whether similar inequities exist in regions with average to low donation rates remained unclear. We assessed the impact of sex on transplantation rates, waiting list mortality and post-transplant survival in 25,943 patients waitlisted for liver transplantation in Germany between 2003 and 2017 using competing risk analysis. Women are currently underrepresented on the waiting list (33.3%) and among transplant recipients (31.1%) compared to their proportion of severe liver disease cases (35.1%). The introduction of MELD-based allocation has worsened this disadvantage [HR before: 0.89 (0.81-0.98), after: 0.77 (0.74-0.81)]. Three key factors contribute to this disparity: Women have lower creatinine levels despite worse renal function, reducing their MELD score (median 1, 0-3). Second, exceptional MELD points are more frequently granted to men [HR 1.61 (1.54-1.69) compared to regular allocation]. Third, the small height of women has the highest impact on the probability of not being transplanted [adjusted HR 0.85 (0.81-0.9)]. Even in countries with lower organ donation rates, MELD-based allocation leads to sex inequity. Measures are needed to ensure sex-neutral liver allocation in MELD-based systems worldwide.

The Development and Appraisal of MELD 3.0 in Liver Diseases: Good Things Never Come Easy

Since its proposal, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been employed to predict short-term mortality among patients with chronic liver disease and those awaiting liver transplantation, serving as the primary criterion for organ allocation. However, as the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of chronic liver disease and liver transplantation have evolved, a range of MELD-related scores has emerged, including MELD-Na, iMELD, delta MELD, MELD XI, MELD-LA, and pediatric end-stage liver disease, culminating in the recently proposed MELD 3.0, which builds upon MELD-Na. This study aimed to comprehensively review and summarize relevant studies on MELD 3.0 in various scenarios, assessing its effectiveness in organ allocation, post-transplantation outcomes, and mortality prediction for patients with end-stage liver disease. Our preliminary findings indicate superior predictive performance of MELD 3.0, warranting further in-depth investigations to broaden its clinical implications.

Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation Using Artificial Intelligence (GEMA-AI) for Waiting List Liver Transplant Prioritization

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to develop and validate an artificial intelligence score (gender-equity model for liver allocation using artificial intelligence [GEMA-AI]) to predict liver transplantation (LT) waiting list outcomes using the same input variables contained in existing models.

METHODS

This was a cohort study including adult LT candidates enlisted in the United Kingdom (2010-2020) for model training and internal validation and in Australia (1998-2020) for external validation. GEMA-AI combined international normalized ratio, bilirubin, sodium, and the Royal Free Hospital glomerular filtration rate in an explainable artificial neural network. GEMA-AI was compared with gender-equity model for liver allocation corrected by serum sodium (GEMA-Na), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease corrected by serum sodium for waiting list prioritization.

RESULTS

The study included 9320 patients: 5762 in the training cohort, 1920 in the internal validation cohort, and 1638 in the external validation cohort. The prevalence of 90-day mortality or delisting for sickness ranged from 5.3% to 6% across different cohorts. GEMA-AI showed better discrimination than GEMA-Na, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease corrected by serum sodium, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 in the internal and external validation cohorts, with a more pronounced benefit in women and in patients showing at least 1 extreme analytical value. Accounting for identical input variables, the transition from a linear to a nonlinear score (from GEMA-Na to GEMA-AI) resulted in a differential prioritization of 6.4% of patients within the first 90 days and would potentially save 1 in 59 deaths overall, and 1 in 13 deaths among women. Results did not substantially change when ascites was not included in the models.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of explainable machine learning models may be preferred over conventional regression-based models for waiting list prioritization in LT. GEMA-AI made more accurate predictions of waiting list outcomes, particularly for the sickest patients.

Liver transplantation for colorectal cancer with liver metastases

Over the last decade, multiple clinical trials have demonstrated a survival benefit for liver transplantation in colorectal cancer with liver metastases. Additionally, advances in donor organ preservation have expanded organ availability affording the opportunity to expand indications for liver transplantation, such as colorectal cancer with unresectable liver metastases. Current data support comparable overall survival (OS) for liver transplantation for colorectal cancer with liver metastases compared with general liver transplantation recipients. Supported by this data, in the United States, allocation policy is changing to include deceased donor livers for patients with unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases. Available studies to date demonstrate improved outcomes with primary tumor R0 resection, 6-12 months of pretransplantation chemotherapy, and careful radiologic restaging (including positron emission tomography/computed tomography) to confirm lack of extrahepatic disease. A response to pretransplantation chemotherapy is a key predictor of long-term outcomes and progression during chemotherapy appears to be a contraindication to proceeding to transplant. A carcinoembryonic antigen level ≤80 µg/L and largest liver tumor dimension <5.5 cm are both associated with improved progression-free and OS in the available literature. Liver transplantation for colorectal cancer with unresectable liver metastases is associated with longer progression-free and OS compared with chemotherapy alone. Patient selection based on imaging, laboratory, and clinical findings is critical to identify patients most likely to benefit. Liver transplantation should be considered at all centers with an active transplant program to improve outcomes for patients with advanced colorectal cancer.

Microbiota transplant for hepatic encephalopathy in cirrhosis: The THEMATIC trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Preventing hepatic encephalopathy (HE) recurrence in cirrhosis, which is associated with an altered gut-liver-brain axis, is an unmet need. Benefits of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) have been shown in phase I studies, but route and dose-related questions remain.

METHODS

We performed a phase II randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, clinical trial of capsule and enema FMT in patients with cirrhosis and HE on lactulose and rifaximin. Participants were randomized into four groups (3 active doses; 2 active and 1 placebo dose; 1 active and 2 placebo doses; 3 placebo doses). Each patient received two capsules and one enema (either placebo or FMT) and were followed for 6 months. The primary outcome was FMT-related (serious) adverse events ([s]AEs)/AEs using intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes were HE recurrence, all-cause hospitalizations, death, donor engraftment, and quality-of-life. FMT was from a vegan or omnivorous donor.

RESULTS

We enrolled 60 patients (15/group) with similar baseline characteristics. FMT was safe without any FMT-related SAEs/AEs. Overall SAEs (p = 0.96) or death (p = 1.0) were similar. There were significant differences in HE recurrence between groups (p = 0.035, Cramer's V = 0.39). On post hoc analysis, recurrence was highest in the all-placebo vs. any FMT group (40% vs. 9%; odds ratio 0.15, 95% CI 0.04-0.64). Within the FMT groups, HE recurrence rates were similar regardless of route, doses, or donor type. Quality of life improved in FMT-recipient groups. Engraftment was highest in those with high pre-FMT Lachnospiraceae and lower in those whose HE recurred.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and HE on maximal therapy, FMT regardless of dose, route, or donor was safe without any FMT-related AEs. On post hoc analysis, HE recurrence was highest in the placebo-only group and linked with lower baseline Lachnospiraceae and reduced donor engraftment.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) already on maximal therapy could have recurrences, which worsen prognosis and are not prioritized for liver transplant. In this phase II, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with cirrhosis and prior overt HE, we found that fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) was safe and well tolerated regardless of route of delivery (oral or enema), number of doses (1 through 3), or donor type (vegan or omnivorous). HE recurrence, which was a key secondary endpoint, was different between groups and, on post hoc analysis, lowest in groups that received any FMT. Donor engraftment was higher in those with higher relative abundance of Lachnospiraceae, which was associated with lower HE recurrence.

Robust Predictive Performance of the SALT-M Score for Clinical Outcomes in Asian Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome of patients with chronic liver disease presenting with multiple organ failures. Recently, Sundaram-ACLF-LT Mortality (SALT-M) score has been developed to predict 1-year post-liver transplantation mortality. We validated the SALT-M score in a large-volume, Asian single-centre cohort.

AIMS

We validated the SALT-M score in a large-volume, Asian single-centre cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 224 patients of ACLF grade 2-3. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and concordance index (c-index) were used to assess and compare the predictability of posttransplant mortality of SALT-M and other scores. Moreover, we compared the survivals of patients with high and low SALT-M, in conjunction with MELD score and ACLF grade.

RESULTS

The AUROC for prediction of 1-year post-LT survival was higher in SALT-M (0.691) than in MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0 and delta-MELD. Similarly, the c-index of the SALT-M (0.650) was higher than aforementioned MELD systems. When categorised by the cut-off of SALT-M ≥ 20 and MELD ≥ 30, patients with high SALT-M exhibited lower post-LT survival than those with low SALT-M scores regardless of high or low MELD (40.0% for high SALT-M/high MELD vs. 42.9% for high SALT-M/low MELD vs. 73.8% for low SALT-M/high MELD vs. 63.7% for low SALT-M/low MELD, p < 0.001). In patients with ACLF grade 3, SALT-M effectively stratified the posttransplant mortality (39.4% for high SALT-M vs. 63.1% for low SALT-M, p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

SALT-M outperformed previous MELD systems for predicting posttransplant mortality in Asian LT cohort with severe ACLF. Transplantability for patients with severe ACLF could be determined based on SALT-M.

Development and external validation of Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition-dictated nomograms predicting long-term mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria have gradually accounted for the mainstay evaluating nutritional status. We sought to establish GLIM-dictated nomograms with other prognostic factors influencing long-term mortality and externally validate their predictive performance in decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

The derivation cohort comprised 301 patients presenting with cirrhosis-associated acute insults, while the validation cohort encompassed 101 subjects from another tertiary hospital. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-year all-cause mortality by integrating the GLIM criteria. The study population was stratified into low-, moderate- and high-risk mortality groups according to aforesaid proposed models.

RESULTS

Adjusting Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification (Nomo#1) or Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium score (Nomo#2) separately, the GLIM criteria were independently associated with 1-year mortality in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (Nomo#1 hazard ratio (HR) = 3.139, p < 0.001; Nomo#2 HR = 3.456, p < 0.001). The C-index and time AUC for Nomo#1 and Nomo#2 performed significantly better than those of the GLIM criteria or conventional scoring systems alone. The survival rate of the low-risk group was significantly higher than those of the moderate- or high-risk groups (Nomo#1: 95% vs 65.8% vs 33.3%, p < 0.001; Nomo#2: 94.3% vs 64.5% vs 25%, p < 0.001). Furthermore, our proposed models exhibited moderate prediction accuracy and may identify malnourished patients with poor survival conditions in the external validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

GLIM criteria-defined malnutrition negatively impacted long-term mortality in the context of decompensated cirrhosis. Our established nomograms may predict survival status with sufficient discriminatory ability, alongside good consistency and clinical benefits, supporting their effectiveness in daily practice.

Controversies regarding albumin therapy in cirrhosis

Albumin is the most abundant protein in the human body and is synthetized exclusively by the liver. Therefore, serum albumin levels are reduced in acute and/or chronic liver disease. In cirrhosis, low levels of albumin predict the outcome. In advanced cirrhosis, the quality of albumin is decreased due to high oxidative stress and a proinflammatory state. Therefore, the administration of i.v. albumin would seem to be of pathophysiological relevance and benefit. Yet, the questions that remain are who, when, how much, and how often. While albumin infusion is recommended after large-volume paracentesis, at diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, in acute kidney injury, and in hepatorenal syndrome, the amount and schedule of albumin to be administered require refinement, particularly given complications related to volume overload that have become increasingly apparent. Other indications for albumin such as infections other than spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hyponatremia, HE, prevention of poor outcomes in hospitalized, and in outpatients with cirrhosis are still debated. The results of studies in these settings are either negative, controversial, or inconclusive. This sheds some doubts regarding the use of albumin as a "one size fits all" strategy. The indication and patient selection are crucial and not always intuitive. The amount and frequency also seem to play a role in the success or failure of albumin. This review will critically discuss the evidence and underline areas where there are indications for albumin use and others where evidence is still insufficient and will have to await the development/results of randomized controlled trials.

Benefits of liver transplant in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Implementation of an urgent living-donor program

We evaluated the liver transplantation (LT) criteria in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), incorporating an urgent living-donor LT (LDLT) program. Critically ill patients with a Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score) ≥65, previously considered unsuitable for LT, were included to explore the excess mortality threshold of the CLIF-C_ACLF_score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold). We followed 854 consecutive patients with ACLF (276 ACLF grade 2 and 215 ACLF grade 3) over 10 years among 4432 LT recipients between 2008 and 2019. For advanced ACLF patients without immediate deceased-donor (DD) allocation, an urgent LDLT program was expedited. The CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold was determined by the metrics of transplant survival benefit: >60% 1-year and >50% 5-year survival rate. In predicting post-LT mortality, the CLIF-C_ACLF_score outperformed the (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) MELD-Na and (model for end-stage liver disease) MELD-3.0 scores but was comparable to the Sundaram ACLF-LT-mortality score. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65 (n = 54) demonstrated posttransplant survival benefits, with 1-year and 5-year survival rates of 66.7% and 50.4% (P < .001), respectively. Novel CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold for 1-year and 5-year mortalities was 70 and 69, respectively. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score-based nomogram for predicting survival probabilities, integrating cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and donor type (LDLT vs DDLT), was generated. This study suggests reconsidering the criteria for unsuitable LT with a CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65. Implementing a timely salvage LT strategy, and incorporating urgent LDLT, can enhance survival rates.

Validation of gender-equity model for liver allocation (GEMA) and its sodium variant (GEMA-Na) in candidates for liver transplantation

Background

The current allocation system for liver transplantation (LT) is based on the sickest-first policy, using objective variables to ensure equal priority. However, under-prioritization of female patients for LT, compared to males, is well demonstrated and new scores have been proposed to overcome this systematic bias. This study evaluated the ability of these new scores to predict the long-term outcomes of patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

The clinical and laboratory characteristics of 694 consecutive candidates for liver transplantation from 2 liver transplant centers were recorded. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based scores (MELD, MELD-Sodium and MELD 3.0), as well as the Gender-Equity Model for liver Allocation (GEMA) and GEMA-Sodium, were used to assess the severity of liver disease. Patients were followed-up prospectively and their outcomes assessed.

Results

During a follow-up period of median length 12 months (range: 4-52), 28.5% of patients died, 21% of patients underwent LT, while 50.5% remained alive. Female patients had significantly lower MELD and MELD-Sodium scores compared to males, attributable to their significantly lower creatinine, while MELD 3.0, GEMA and GEMA-Sodium did not differ between the 2 sexes. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, GEMA-Sodium was the only factor independently associated with death/LT, and showed very good discriminative ability (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.073-1.128; P<0.001). These findings were confirmed in several subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

Our findings show for the first time the predictive ability of GEMA-Sodium for the long-term outcomes of LT candidates. However, further studies are needed to confirm these findings.

The future of clinical trials of gut microbiome therapeutics in cirrhosis

The last two decades have witnessed an explosion of microbiome research, including in hepatology, with studies demonstrating altered microbial composition in liver disease. More recently, efforts have been made to understand the association of microbiome features with clinical outcomes and to develop therapeutics targeting the microbiome. While microbiome therapeutics hold much promise, their unique features pose certain challenges for the design and conduct of clinical trials. Herein, we will briefly review indications for microbiome therapeutics in cirrhosis, currently available microbiome therapeutics, and the biological pathways targeted by these therapies. We will then focus on the best practices and important considerations for clinical trials of gut microbiome therapeutics in cirrhosis.

Cystatin C and the difference between cystatin C and serum creatinine: Improved metrics to predict waitlist mortality among patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Among patients with decompensated cirrhosis, serum creatinine (sCr) is biased by sex, frailty, and hepatic synthetic function, while Cystatin C (cysC) is not. We found that sCr would better associate with waitlist mortality and that the difference between cysC and sCr (cysCsCr diff ) would quantify this bias and be independently associated with outcomes. We measured cysC levels at ambulatory liver transplant visits among 525 consecutive patients seen at our center. We defined the cysCsCr diff as the difference between cysC minus sCr. We compared demographics and clinical characteristics in patients with low, intermediate, and high cysCsCr diff , divided by tertile. We used Cox regression to compare the association between sCr and cysC and waitlist mortality and demonstrate the independent association between cysCsCr diff and waitlist mortality. In Cox regression, cysC was significantly more associated with waitlist mortality than sCr ( p < 0.001). We found that as compared to those with a low cysCsCr diff , those with an intermediate or high cysCsCr diff were more likely to be female, have ascites, have higher frailty, and have higher MELD 3.0 scores ( p < 0.05 for all). Compared to those with a low cysCsCr diff , we found that those in the intermediate and high groups were more likely to die during follow-up (low: 6% vs. intermediate: 8% vs. high: 11%, p = 0.007). We found that after adjusting for the components of the MELD 3.0 score, each 1-point increase in the cysCsCr diff was associated with 1.72× (1.27-2.32) the hazard of waitlist mortality. Our study demonstrates that not only is cysC more associated with waitlist mortality than sCr, but that cysCsCr diff represents a novel independent metric associated with waitlist mortality.

Sex disparity in liver allocation within Eurotransplant

In Eurotransplant, relatively more females than males die while waiting for liver transplantation, and relatively fewer females undergo transplantation. With adult liver transplantation candidates listed between 2007 and 2019 (n = 21 170), we study whether sex disparity is inherent to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system, or the indirect result of a small candidate body size limiting access to transplantation. Cox proportional hazard models are used to quantify the direct effect of sex on waitlist mortality, independent of the effect of sex through MELD scores, and the direct effect of sex on the transplantation rate, independent of the effect of sex through MELD and candidate body size. Adjusted waitlist mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for female sex are insignificant (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.88-1.20). We thus lack evidence that MELD systematically underestimates waitlist mortality rates for females. Transplantation rates are 25% lower for females than males in unadjusted analyses (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.77), but HRs become insignificant with adjustment for mediators (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.93-1.04), most importantly candidate body size. Sex disparity in Eurotransplant thus appears to be largely a consequence of lower transplantation rates for females, which are explained by sex differences in body size.

Outpatient management after hospitalisation for acute decompensation of cirrhosis: A practical guide

Acute decompensation in cirrhotic patients signifies the onset of clinically evident events due to portal hypertension. The transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis involves hemodynamic changes leading to multiorgan dysfunction, managed predominantly in outpatient settings with regular monitoring. The mortality risk is elevated in decompensated patients. Therefore, diligent outpatient management should focus on regular medical follow-ups, medication adjustments, patient education, addressing emergent issues and evaluation for liver transplantation. The ultimate goal is to improve quality of life, prevent disease progression, reduce complications, and assess possible recompensation. This guide provides valuable recommendations for medical experts managing decompensated cirrhotic patients post-hospitalization.

A Comprehensive Assessment of Liver Transplant Trends and Outcomes Among Adults With Steatotic Liver Disease in the U.S

Background and Aims

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) among U.S. adults. We aim to provide comprehensive updates of LT trends and outcomes among adults with SLD, highlighting racial, ethnic, and sociodemographic disparities.

Methods

Using data from the 2010 to 2023 United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we performed a retrospective cohort study evaluating LT waitlist trends, waitlist outcomes, and post-LT survival among 65,675 adults with SLD. Disparities in LT outcomes were evaluated using adjusted competing risks analyses.

Results

From 2014 to 2023, there was an increasing proportion of Hispanics, women, and younger adults with SLD listed for LT. For Hispanics, this was driven by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH); 19.9% of MASH wait-listings in 2023 were Hispanics. For women and younger adults (18-39 years), this was driven by alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD); 30.9% and 16.4% of ALD-related wait-listings in 2023 were women and younger adults, respectively. Women (vs men) had greater waitlist removal risk (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.18) and lower likelihood of LT receipt (sHR 0.87, 95% CI, 0.85-0.90). Ethnic minorities had worse outcomes, particularly Hispanics, who had a 37% higher risk of waitlist removal (sHR 1.37, 95% CI, 1.30-1.45) and 16% lower likelihood of LT receipt (sHR 0.86, 95% CI, 0.82-0.87) vs non-Hispanic whites. Disparities in post-LT survival were also observed.

Conclusion

In 2023, nearly one-quarter of MASH liver transplant waitlist registrants were Hispanics. Approximately half and 1 in 6 ALD waitlist registrants were women and younger adults, respectively. These concerning trends are amplified by the disparities in LT outcomes observed among women and ethnic minorities.

Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Cirrhosis and Chronic Kidney Disease: Results from the HRS-HARMONY Consortium

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) frequency is increasing in patients with cirrhosis and these individuals often experience acute kidney injury (AKI). Direct comparisons of outcomes between AKI-only versus AKI on CKD (AoCKD) among patients with cirrhosis are not well described.

METHODS

A total of 2057 patients with cirrhosis and AKI across 11 hospital networks from the HRS-HARMONY consortium were analyzed (70% AKI-only and 30% AoCKD). The primary outcome was unadjusted and adjusted 90-day mortality, with transplant as a competing risk, using Fine and Gray analysis.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with AKI-only, patients with AoCKD had higher median admission creatinine (2.25 [interquartile range, 1.7-3.2] vs 1.83 [1.38-2.58] mg/dL) and peak creatinine (2.79 [2.12-4] vs 2.42 [1.85-3.50] mg/dL) but better liver function parameters (total bilirubin 1.5 [interquartile range, 0.7-3.1] vs 3.4 [1.5-9.3] mg/dL; and international normalized ratio 1.4 [interquartile range, 1.2-1.8] vs 1.7 [1.39-2.2]; P < .001 for all). Patients with AoCKD were more likely to have metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease cirrhosis (31% vs 17%) and less likely to have alcohol-associated liver disease (26% vs 45%; P < .001 for both). Patients with AKI-only had higher unadjusted mortality (39% vs 30%), rate of intensive care unit admission (52% vs 35%; P < .001 for both), and use of renal-replacement therapy (20% vs 15%; P = .005). After adjusting for age, race, sex, transplant listing status, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score, AoCKD was associated with a lower 90-day mortality compared with AKI-only (subhazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized patients with AKI and cirrhosis, AoCKD was associated with lower 90-day mortality compared with AKI-only. This may be caused by the impact of worse liver function parameters in the AKI-only group on short-term outcomes. Further study of the complicated interplay between acute and chronic kidney disease in cirrhosis is needed.

Advancements in MELD Score and Its Impact on Hepatology

There continues to be an ongoing need for fair and equitable organ allocation. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has evolved as a calculated framework to evaluate and allocate patients for liver transplantation objectively. The original MELD score has undergone multiple modifications as it is continuously scrutinized for its accuracy in objectively representing the clinical context of patients with liver disease. Several refinements and iterations of the score have been developed, including the widely accepted MELD-Na score. In addition, the most recent updated iteration, MELD 3.0, has been created. The MELD 3.0 calculator incorporates new variables such as patient sex and serum albumin levels and assigns new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is anticipated that the use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality and enhance access for female liver transplant candidates. However, despite the emergence of the MELD score as one of the most objective measures for fair organ allocation, various countries and healthcare systems employ alternative methods for stratification and organ allocation. This review article will highlight the origins of the MELD score, its iterations, the current MELD 3.0, and future directions for managing liver transplantation organ allocation. LAY SUMMARY: Organ donation is crucial for the management of patients unwell with liver disease, but organs must be allocated fairly and equitably. One method used for this is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, which helps objectively decide which patient is a candidate for liver transplant. Over time, the MELD score has been refined to better reflect patients' needs. For example, the latest version, MELD 3.0, now considers factors like nutrition and gender. This should ensure that more patients, especially females, are candidates and receive appropriate access to liver transplantation. However, not every country uses the MELD score. Some countries have created their own scoring systems based on local research. This review will explain where the MELD score came from, how it has changed, the current characteristics of the MELD 3.0 score, and what the future might hold for organ allocation in liver transplants.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is an established life-saving procedure. The field of LT has changed in the past 10 years from several perspectives, with the expansion of indications, transplantation of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, evolution of transplant oncology, the use of donations after cardiac death, new surgical techniques, and prioritisation of recipients on the waiting list. In addition, the advent of organ perfusion machines, the recognition of new forms of rejection, and the attention paid to the transition from paediatric to adult patients, have all improved the management of LT recipients. The purpose of the EASL guidelines presented here is not to cover all aspects of LT but to focus on developments since the previous EASL guidelines published in 2016.

The Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival accurately predicts mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

The recently developed Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS) allows improved risk classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis allocated to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the FIPS in patients hospitalized with acute decompensation of cirrhosis (AD), outside the setting of TIPS implantation.

METHODS

A total of 1133 patients with AD were included in a retrospective, multi-centre study. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were recorded and the FIPS' performance in predicting mortality at these time points was analysed using ROC analyses.

RESULTS

Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 17.7%, 24.4% and 30.8%. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models showed that the FIPS independently predicted 1-year mortality in the study cohort (HR 1.806, 95% CI 1.632-1.998, p < .0001). In ROC analyses, the FIPS offered consistently high performance in the prediction of mortality within 1 year after AD (area under the receiver operator characteristic [AUROC]: 1-year mortality .712 [.679-.746], 180-day mortality .740 [.705-.775] and 90-day mortality .761 [.721-.801]). In fact, in the subgroup of patients presenting with variceal bleeding, the FIPS even showed significantly improved discriminatory performance in the prediction of long-term mortality (AUROC 1-year mortality: .782 [.724-.839]) in comparison with established prognostic scores, such as the CLIF-C AD score (.724 [.660-.788], p = .0071) or MELD 3.0 (.726 [.662-.790], p = .0042).

CONCLUSIONS

The FIPS accurately predicts mortality in patients with AD and seems to offer superior prognostication of long-term mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

First consensus document of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH)

Spain is worldwide leader in deceased donation rates per million habitants and count on a strong network of twenty-five liver transplant institutions. Although the access to liver transplantation is higher than in other countries, approximately 10% of patients qualifying for liver transplantation in Spain will die in the waiting list or would be excluded due to clinical deterioration. A robust waiting list prioritization system is paramount to grant the sickest patients with the first positions in the waiting list for an earlier access to transplant. In addition, the allocation policy may not create or perpetuate inequities, particularly in a public and universal healthcare system. Hitherto, Spain lacks a unique national allocation system for elective liver transplantation. Most institutions establish their own rules for liver allocation and only two autonomous regions, namely Andalucía and Cataluña, share part of their waiting list within their territory to provide regional priority to patients requiring more urgent transplantation. This heterogeneity is further aggravated by the recently described sex-based disparities for accessing liver transplantation in Spain, and by the expansion of liver transplant indications, mainly for oncological indications, in absence of clear guidance on the optimal prioritization policy. The present document contains the recommendations from the first consensus of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation issued by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH). The document was supported by all liver transplant institutions in Spain and by the Organización Nacional de Trasplantes (ONT). Its implementation will allow to homogenize practices and to improve equity and outcomes among patients with end-stage liver disease.

Percutaneous Transhepatic Cholangioscopy in Hepatolithiasis Associated With Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Multiple and complicated hepatolithiasis can be associated with decompensated cirrhosis. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is unavailable for multiple and complicated hepatolithiasis, and the mainstay for decompensated cirrhosis is liver transplantation. However, due to the ethical factors and the complexity of operation, liver transplantation cannot be widely operated. This study aimed to evaluate percutaneous transhepatic cholangioscopy in the extraction of stones and the recompensation of cirrhosis in patients with hepatolithiasis associated with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Between January 2021 and February 2024, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of 21 patients with multiple and complicated hepatolithiasis associated with decompensated cirrhosis. Before PTCS, the 21 patients were all assessed by the Model for End-stage Liver Disease as having indications for liver transplantation. One-step PTCS (n = 19) and two-step PTCS (n = 2) were used to remove the stones.

RESULTS

The technical success rate was 100%, and most stones were cleared 90.48% (19/21). After 3 months of PTCS, MELD score of the patients had significantly decreased (10.81 ± 3.31 vs. 17.24 ± 3.40, p < 0.05), and it was lowest at 6 months after the operation (9.94 ± 4.31). After a median follow-up period of 18 months (up to 40 months), the stone recurrence rate was 28.57% (6/21), 13 patients survived without liver transplantation, three patients underwent liver transplantation and survived, and five patients died of liver failure or cancer (mortality rate 23.81%).

CONCLUSIONS

PTCS can significantly improve patients' liver function in hepatolithiasis associated with decompensated cirrhosis.

Body Size Remains the Major Source of Sex Disparity Despite Updated Liver Transplant Allocation Policies

BACKGROUND

Efforts to address US liver transplant (LT) access inequities continue, yet disparities linked to candidate traits persist.

METHODS

Analyzing national registry data pre- and post-Acuity Circle (AC) policy, our study assessed the impact of low body surface area (BSA) on LT waitlist mortality. The outcomes of LT candidates listed in the pre-AC era (n = 39 227) and post-AC (n = 38 443) were compared for patients with low BSA (22.9% pre-AC and 23.3% post-AC).

RESULTS

Fine-Gray competing risk models highlighted that candidates with low BSA had a lower likelihood of LT both pre-AC (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.95) and post-AC (HR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.98), with minimal improvement in waitlist mortality/dropout risk from pre-AC (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21) to post-AC (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.19). Findings were mostly reaffirmed by Cox regression models incorporating the trajectory of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores as time-dependent covariates. Regions 3, 5, and 7 showed notable LT waitlist disparities among low BSA patients post-AC policy. Causal mediation analysis revealed that low BSA and the difference between MELD-sodium and MELD 3.0 (MELD_D, as a proxy for the potential impact of the introduction of MELD 3.0) largely explained the sex disparity in AC allocation (percent mediated 90.4).

CONCLUSIONS

LT waitlist disparities for female candidates persist, largely mediated by small body size. Although MELD 3.0 may reduce some disparities, further body size adjustments for in allocation models are justified.

Hepatic encephalopathy post-TIPS: Current status and prospects in predictive assessment

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an essential procedure for the treatment of portal hypertension but can result in hepatic encephalopathy (HE), a serious complication that worsens patient outcomes. Investigating predictors of HE after TIPS is essential to improve prognosis. This review analyzes risk factors and compares predictive models, weighing traditional scores such as Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) against emerging artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. While traditional scores provide initial insights into HE risk, they have limitations in dealing with clinical complexity. Advances in machine learning (ML), particularly when integrated with imaging and clinical data, offer refined assessments. These innovations suggest the potential for AI to significantly improve the prediction of post-TIPS HE. The study provides clinicians with a comprehensive overview of current prediction methods, while advocating for the integration of AI to increase the accuracy of post-TIPS HE assessments. By harnessing the power of AI, clinicians can better manage the risks associated with TIPS and tailor interventions to individual patient needs. Future research should therefore prioritize the development of advanced AI frameworks that can assimilate diverse data streams to support clinical decision-making. The goal is not only to more accurately predict HE, but also to improve overall patient care and quality of life.

Machine learning for post-liver transplant survival: Bridging the gap for long-term outcomes through temporal variation features

BACKGROUND

The long-term survival of liver transplant (LT) recipients is essential for optimizing organ allocation and estimating mortality outcomes. While models like the Model-for-End-Stage-Liver-Disease (MELD) predict 90-day mortality on the waiting list, they do not predict post-LT survival accurately. There is a need for predictive models that can forecast post-LT survival beyond the immediate period after transplantation.

METHOD

This study introduces new temporal variation features for predicting post-LT survival during the waiting list period. Cox Proportional-Hazards regression (CoxPH), Random Survival Forest (RSF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models are utilized, along with patient demographics and waiting list duration. Data from 716 LT patients from the University of Minnesota CTSI (2011-2021) are used to develop, evaluate, and compare post-LT survival prediction models.

RESULTS

The temporal variation features, particularly when combined with the RSF model, proved most effective in predicting post-LT survival, with a C-index of 0.71 and an IBS of 0.151. This outperformed the predictive capability of the most recent MELD score, which had a C-index of <0.51 in the same cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating temporal variation features with the RSF model enhances long-term post-LT survival predictions. These insights can assist clinicians and patients in making more informed decisions about organ allocation and understanding the utility of LT, ultimately leading to improved patient outcomes.

The Multifaceted Role of Bilirubin in Liver Disease: A Literature Review

Bilirubin, the primary breakdown product of hemoproteins, particularly hemoglobin, plays a key role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of liver diseases. In acute liver diseases, such as acute liver failure, drug-induced liver injury, and viral hepatitis, bilirubin serves as a biomarker reflecting the extent of hepatocyte loss and liver damage. Chronic liver diseases, including alcohol-related liver disease, chronic hepatitis C virus infection, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, and autoimmune liver diseases, are marked by persistent liver injury and inflammation. Bilirubin levels in chronic liver diseases provide insight into liver function, disease severity, and prognosis. As a versatile biomarker, bilirubin offers valuable information on the pathophysiology of liver diseases and aids in guiding clinical decision-making regarding the treatment of liver diseases and their complications. This review aimed to explore the multifunctional role of bilirubin in liver diseases by analyzing its biological functions beyond its role as a biomarker of liver damage.

Sex Differences in Patient-Reported Outcomes and Perception of Ascites Burden Among Outpatients With Decompensated Cirrhosis and Ascites

INTRODUCTION

Perception of the ascites burden and its effects on quality of life may be different between sexes. This study assessed sex differences in perception of ascites burden and its impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with recurrent or refractory ascites.

METHODS

The North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled outpatients with cirrhosis and large ascites requiring repeat large volume paracenteses. Demographics, laboratory results, comorbidities, medications, frailty measurements, and self-reported questionnaires related to functional status, physical activities, and HRQoL (generic = Short Form 36 and ascites specific = Ascites Questionnaire) were compared between sexes.

RESULTS

In total, 392 men (59.6 ± 10.7 years) and 184 women (59.5 ± 11.1 years) with predominantly alcohol-related liver disease (51% and 43%, respectively) and median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na: 13 were enrolled. Both groups had similar comorbidities and cirrhosis complications, ascites duration and severity, and frailty scores ( P = 0.94). Women had more symptoms related to their ascites (Ascites Questionnaire score = 66 ± 21 vs 60 ± 21 in men, P = 0.001) (higher value = feeling worse). 35% of women felt depressed vs 22% of men ( P = 0.0009), with lower mental but not physical functioning components of Short Form 36 ( P = 0.019). Women continued to conduct their daily activities as adequately as men as indicated by Duke Status Activity Index ( P = 0.27) and Godin Leisure Activity Index ( P = 0.47).

DISCUSSION

Women with cirrhosis and ascites experienced worse emotional HRQoL than men without difference in daily function. Our analyses underscore the differences in the lived experience of women vs men with cirrhosis and highlight the need for patient-reported metrics to provide patient-centered care.

Predictive model of in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with hyponatremia: an artificial neural network approach

Hyponatremia can worsen the outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis. However, it remains unclear about how to predict the risk of death in cirrhotic patients with hyponatremia. Patients with liver cirrhosis and hyponatremia were screened. Eligible patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 472) and validation (n = 471) cohorts. In the training cohort, the independent predictors for in-hospital death were identified by logistic regression analyses. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was established in the training cohort. Areas under curve (AUCs) of ANN model, Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na scores were calculated by receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, ascites (OR = 2.705, P = 0.042), total bilirubin (OR = 1.004, P = 0.003), serum creatinine (OR = 1.004, P = 0.017), and international normalized ratio (OR = 1.457, P = 0.005) were independently associated with in-hospital death. Based on the four variables, an ANN model was established. Its AUC was 0.865 and 0.810 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, which was significantly larger than those of Child-Pugh (AUC = 0.757), MELD (AUC = 0.765), and MELD-Na (AUC = 0.769) scores. An ANN model has been developed and validated for the prediction of in-hospital death in patients with liver cirrhosis and hyponatremia.

Identification and quantification of the molecular species of bilirubin BDG, BMG and UCB by LC‒MS/MS in hyperbilirubinemic human serum

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) is a byproduct of the heme group that indicates irregularities in the metabolism of several important biological molecules, such as hemoglobin. UCB is processed by hepatic UGT1A1, which catalyzes its conjugation to the metabolites bilirubin diglucuronide (BDG) and bilirubin monoglucuronide (BMG). The serum concentrations of BDG and BMG may indicate liver injury or dysfunction. The aim of this study was to standardize and validate a method for the identification and simultaneous quantification of BMG, BDG and UCB by LC‒MS/MS.

METHODS

Liquid‒liquid extraction allows the separation of UCB, BMG and BDG from the serum of healthy subjects or patients with liver injury. Detection and quantification were performed using an LC‒MS/MS method. Compound separation was achieved with a BEH-C18 column at 40°C. The mobile phase was prepared with 5 mM ammonium acetate (pH 6) and acetonitrile, and a flow gradient was applied.

RESULTS

This is the first study to directly quantify BMG and UCB levels in human serum; no postcalculations or correction factors are needed. However, BDG quantification requires calculations and a correction factor. We identified the molecular species with ionic transitions m/z1+ 585.4 > 299.2 for UCB, 761.3 > 475.3 for BMG, 937.3 > 299.5 for BDG and mesobilirubin 589.4 > 301.3 (IS).

CONCLUSION

The procedures used in this study allowed the simultaneous identification and quantification of the molecular species of bilirubin, BDG, BMG and UCB. Analysis of the serum levels in patients with hyperbilirubinemia revealed that patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure had elevated levels of these species.

SLC4A11 mediates ammonia import and promotes cancer stemness in hepatocellular carcinoma

End-stage liver disease is marked by portal hypertension, systemic elevations in ammonia, and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While these clinical consequences of cirrhosis are well described, it remains poorly understood whether hepatic insufficiency and the accompanying elevations in ammonia contribute to HCC carcinogenesis. Using preclinical models, we discovered that ammonia entered the cell through the transporter SLC4A11 and served as a nitrogen source for amino acid and nucleotide biosynthesis. Elevated ammonia promoted cancer stem cell properties in vitro and tumor initiation in vivo. Enhancing ammonia clearance reduced HCC stemness and tumor growth. In patients, elevations in serum ammonia were associated with an increased incidence of HCC. Taken together, this study forms the foundation for clinical investigations using ammonia-lowering agents as potential therapies to mitigate HCC incidence and aggressiveness.

Assessing LSAM's ability to account for changes in organ donation and transplant center behavior

The Liver Simulated Allocation Model (LSAM) is used to evaluate proposed organ allocation policies. Although LSAM has been shown to predict the directionality of changes in transplants and nonused organs, the magnitude is often overestimated. One reason is that policymakers and researchers using LSAM assume static levels of organ donation and center behavior because of challenges with predicting future behavior. We sought to assess the ability of LSAM to account for changes in organ donation and organ acceptance behavior using LSAM 2019. We ran 1-year simulations with the default model and then ran simulations changing donor arrival rates (ie, organ donation) and center acceptance behavior. Changing the donor arrival rate was associated with a progressive simulated increase in transplants, with corresponding simulated decreases in waitlist deaths. Changing parameters related to organ acceptance was associated with important changes in transplants, nonused organs, and waitlist deaths in the expected direction in data simulations, although to a much lesser degree than changing the donor arrival rate. Increasing the donor arrival rate was associated with a marked decrease in the travel distance of donor livers in simulations. In conclusion, we demonstrate that LSAM can account for changes in organ donation and organ acceptance in a manner aligned with historical precedent that can inform future policy analyses. As Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients develops new simulation programs, the importance of considering changes in donation and center practice is critical to accurately estimate the impact of new allocation policies.

Impact of non-selective beta blockers on further decompensation and death in decompensated cirrhosis: Benefit and risk stratification by MELD score

BACKGROUND

Non-selective beta blockers (NSBBs) can reduce the risk of decompensation, but their impact on further decompensation has been rarely investigated.

AIMS

The aim is to evaluate the impact of NSBBs on further decompensation and death in decompensated cirrhosis stratified by the severity of liver disease.

METHODS

Overall, 332 decompensated cirrhotic patients were retrospectively included, of whom 149 used NSBBs. Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curves as well as Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used to estimate the associations of NSBBs with further decompensation and death, if appropriate. Hazard ratio (HR) and sub-distribution HR (sHR) were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed based on the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score at admission.

RESULTS

In the overall analysis, the use of NSBBs was not significantly associated with further decompensation in multivariate competing risk analysis (sHR = 1.09, p = 0.580). In the subgroup analysis of patients with a MELD score of ≤9, the use of NSBBs was significantly associated with decreased risk of further decompensation in multivariate competing risk analysis (sHR = 0.57, p = 0.021). In the subgroup analysis of patients with a MELD score of >9, the use of NSBBs was associated with increased risk of further decompensation in multivariate competing risk analysis (sHR = 1.45, p = 0.044). Regardless of overall and subgroup analyses, the use of NSBBs was not significantly associated with death in multivariate Cox regression analyses.

CONCLUSION

NSBBs may be beneficial for the prevention of further decompensation in cirrhotic patients with a MELD score of ≤9, but deleterious in those with a MELD score of >9.

Sex and Size Disparities in Access to Liver Transplant for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Importance

Women on the liver transplant waiting list are less likely to undergo a transplant than men. Recent approaches to resolving this disparity have involved adjustments to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring, but this will not affect candidates who rely on exception scores rather than calculated MELD score, the majority of whom have hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Objective

To evaluate the association between female sex, candidate size, and access to liver transplant among wait-listed patients with HCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used US transplant registry data of all adult (aged ≥18 years) wait-listed liver transplant candidates receiving an HCC exception score between January 1, 2010, and March 2, 2023.

Exposure

Wait-listed liver transplant candidate sex.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The association of female sex with (1) deceased-donor liver transplant (DDLT) and (2) death or waiting list removal for health deterioration were estimated using multivariable competing-risks regression. Results with and without adjustment for candidate height and weight (mediators of the sex disparity) were compared.

Results

The cohort included 31 725 candidates with HCC (mean [SD] age at receipt of exception, 61.2 [7.1] years; 76.3% men). Compared with men, women had a lower 1-year cumulative incidence of DDLT (50.8% vs 54.0%; P < .001) and a higher 1-year cumulative incidence of death or delisting for health deterioration (16.2% vs 15.0%; P = .002). After adjustment, without accounting for size, women had a lower incidence of DDLT (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89-0.95) and higher incidence of death or delisting (SHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.13) compared with men. When adjusting for candidate height and weight, there was no association of female sex with incidence of DDLT or death or delisting. However, at a height cutoff of 166 cm, short women compared with short men were still less likely to undergo a transplant (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, women with HCC were less likely to receive a DDLT and more likely to die while wait-listed than men with HCC; these differences were largely (but not entirely) explained by sex-based differences in candidate size. For candidates listed with exception scores, additional changes to allocation policy are needed to resolve the sex disparity, including solutions to improve access to size-matched donor livers for smaller candidates.

An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores ( p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/ .

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic Model for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early determination of prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is crucial for optimizing treatment options and liver allocation. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with ACLF and to develop new prognostic models that accurately predict patient outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively selected 1,952 hospitalized patients diagnosed with ACLF between January 2010 and June 2018. This cohort was used to develop new prognostic scores, which were subsequently validated in external groups.

RESULTS

The study included 1,386 ACLF patients and identified six independent predictors of 28-day mortality through multivariate analysis (all p < 0.05). The new score, based on a multivariate regression model, demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for both 28-day and 90-day mortalities, with Areas under the ROC curves of 0.863 and 0.853, respectively (all p < 0.05). This score can be used to stratify the risk of mortality among ACLF patients with ACLF, showing a significant difference in survival between patients categorized by the cut-off value (log-rank (Mantel-Cox) χ2 = 487.574 and 606.441, p = 0.000). Additionally, the new model exhibited good robustness in two external cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a refined prognostic model, the Model for end-stage liver disease-complication score, which accurately predicts short-term mortality in ACLF patients. This model offers a new perspective and tool for improved clinical decision-making and short-term prognostic assessment in ACLF patients.

Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

This study aimed to identify predictive factors for the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) due to both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and alcohol and to develop prognostic models to improve treatment management. AoCLD patients with HBV and alcohol as etiological factors were selected from two multicenter prospective cohorts (NCT02457637,NCT03641872) and included in separate training and validation cohorts (n = 180 and n = 148). In the training cohort, the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy score) and CATCH-LIFE B nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum albumin, white blood cell, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy score) had discriminatory ability for predicting 28-day (c-indexes of 0.910 and 0.899) and 90-day mortality (c-indexes of 0.878 and 0.887, respectively). The area under the curve values for 28-day and 90-day mortality prediction by the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram were 0.922 (95% CI : 0.874, 0.971) and 0.905 (0.856, 0.956), respectively, while those for the CATCH-LIFE B nomogram were 0.916(0.861,0.972) and 0.915 (0.866,0.964), respectively. Similar performance results were observed in the validation cohort. Optimal cut-off scores for each nomogram could be used for patient stratification in high- and low-risk groups, and the high-risk groups showed shorter survival times than the low-risk groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Two nomograms constructed from the first short-term follow-up data from patients with AoCLD due to combined HBV infection and alcohol exposure showed good predictive performance for 28-day and 90-day mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Inconsistent values and algorithmic fairness: a review of organ allocation priority systems in the United States

BACKGROUND

The Organ Procurement and Transplant Network (OPTN) Final Rule guides national organ transplantation policies, mandating equitable organ allocation and organ-specific priority stratification systems. Current allocation scores rely on mortality predictions.

METHODS

We examined the alignment between the ethical priorities across organ prioritization systems and the statistical design of the risk models in question. We searched PubMed for literature on organ allocation history, policy, and ethics in the United States.

RESULTS

We identified 127 relevant articles, covering kidney (19), liver (60), lung (24), and heart transplants (23), and transplant accessibility (1). Current risk scores emphasize model performance and overlook ethical concerns in variable selection. The inclusion of race, sex, and geographical limits as categorical variables lacks biological basis; therefore, blurring the line between evidence-based models and discrimination. Comprehensive ethical and equity evaluation of risk scores is lacking, with only limited discussion of the algorithmic fairness of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) in some literature. We uncovered the inconsistent ethical standards underlying organ allocation scores in the United States. Specifically, we highlighted the exception points in MELD, the inclusion of race in KDRI, the geographical limit in the Lung Allocation Score, and the inadequacy of risk stratification in the Heart Tier system, creating obstacles for medically underserved populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage efforts to address statistical and ethical concerns in organ allocation models and urge standardization and transparency in policy development to ensure fairness, equitability, and evidence-based risk predictions.