Contagious diseases in the United States from 1888 to the present

Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Infectious Diseases among Foreign Cases in China, 2004-2017

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the features of notifiable infectious diseases found commonly in foreign nationals in China between 2004 and 2017 to improve public health policy and responses for infectious diseases.

METHODS

We performed a descriptive study of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners reported from 2004 to 2017 in China using data from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (NNIDRIS). Demographic, temporal-spatial distribution were described and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 67,939 cases of 33 different infectious diseases were reported among foreigners. These diseases were seen in 31 provinces of China and originated from 146 countries of the world. The infectious diseases with the highest incidence number were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of 18,713 cases, hepatitis B (6,461 cases), hand, foot, and mouth disease (6,327 cases). Yunnan province had the highest number of notifiable infectious diseases in foreigners. There were different trends of the major infectious diseases among foreign cases seen in China and varied among provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first description of the epidemiological characteristic of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners in China from 2004 to 2017. These data can be used to better inform policymakers about national health priorities for future research and control strategies.

CARD9-Associated Dectin-1 and Dectin-2 Are Required for Protective Immunity of a Multivalent Vaccine against Coccidioides posadasii Infection

Coccidioides species are fungal pathogens that can cause a widely varied clinical manifestation from mild pulmonary symptom to disseminated, life-threatening disease. We have previously created a subunit vaccine by encapsulating a recombinant coccidioidal Ag (rCpa1) in glucan-chitin particles (GCPs) as an adjuvant-delivery system. The GCP-rCpa1 vaccine has shown to elicit a mixed Th1 and Th17 response and confers protection against pulmonary coccidioidomycosis in mice. In this study, we further delineated the vaccine-induced protective mechanisms. Depletion of IL-17A in vaccinated C57BL/6 mice prior to challenge abrogated the protective efficacy of GCP-rCpa1 vaccine. Global transcriptome and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis of murine bone marrow-derived macrophages after exposure to this vaccine revealed the upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β) that are associated with activation of C-type lectin receptors (CLR) Dectin-1- and Dectin-2-mediated CARD9 signaling pathway. The GCP formulation of rCpa1 bound soluble Dectin-1 and Dectin-2 and triggered ITAM signaling of corresponding CLR reporter cells. Furthermore, macrophages that were isolated from Dectin-1 -/-, Dectin-2 -/-, and CARD9 -/- mice significantly reduced production of inflammatory cytokines in response to the GCP-rCpa1 vaccine compared with those of wild-type mice. The GCP-rCpa1 vaccine had significantly reduced protective efficacy in Dectin-1 -/-, Dectin-2 -/-, and CARD9 -/- mice that showed decreased acquisition of Th cells in Coccidioides-infected lungs compared with vaccinated wild-type mice, especially Th17 cells. Collectively, we conclude that the GCP-rCpa1 vaccine stimulates a robust Th17 immunity against Coccidioides infection through activation of the CARD9-associated Dectin-1 and Dectin-2 signal pathways.

An Investigation of Japanese Neonatal and Maternal Antibody Status against Pertussis

To clarify the pertussis immune status of the Japanese population, we investigated levels of serum pertussis toxin (PT)-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody in infants and mothers between April 2016 and March 2018. A total of 206 infants (n = 22, < 32 weeks of gestational age [wGA]; n = 70, 32-36 wGA; n = 114, ≥ 37 wGA) and 170 mothers were enrolled. The maternal seroprevalence and antibody geometric mean titer (GMT) were 52.4% and 10.7 EU/mL, respectively. The antibody GMT, seroprevalence, and mean ratio of infant to maternal antibody titers of infants at < 32 wGA were 3.2 EU/mL, 13.6%, and 42.5%, respectively, and were significantly lower than those of infants at 32-36 wGA (9.7 EU/mL, 54.3%, and 110.2%) and infants at ≥ 37 wGA (12.1 EU/mL, 57.9%, and 112.6%). Of the 21 infants who underwent a second examination, five were positive in the first examination. Of those five, the GMT for PT had decreased by an average of 52.6% at 4.3- week intervals. In the second examination, two infants were seropositive. Approximately half of the mothers and infants were negative for anti-PT antibody. Thus, new vaccination strategies, such as the vaccination of pregnant women, are needed to prevent pertussis infection in early infancy.

Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: measles in London as a case study

Patterns of measles infection in large urban populations have long been considered the paradigm of synchronized nonlinear dynamics. Indeed, recurrent epidemics appear approximately mass-action despite underlying heterogeneity. However, using a subset of rich, newly digitized mortality data (1897–1906), we challenge that proposition. We find that sub-regions of London exhibited a mixture of simultaneous annual and biennial dynamics, while the aggregate city-level dynamics appears firmly annual. Using a simple stochastic epidemic model and maximum-likelihood inference methods, we show that we can capture this observed variation in periodicity. We identify agreement between theory and data, indicating that both changes in periodicity and epidemic coupling between regions can follow relatively simple rules; in particular we find local variation in seasonality drives periodicity. Our analysis underlines that multiple attractors can coexist in a strongly mixed population and follow theoretical predictions.

A competing-risks model explains hierarchical spatial coupling of measles epidemics en route to national elimination

Apart from its global health importance, measles is a paradigm for the low-dimensional mechanistic understanding of local nonlinear population interactions. A central question for spatio-temporal dynamics is the relative roles of hierarchical spread from large cities to small towns and metapopulation transmission among local small population clusters in measles persistence. Quantifying this balance is critical to planning the regional elimination and global eradication of measles. Yet, current gravity models do not allow a formal comparison of hierarchical versus metapopulation spread. We address this gap with a competing-risks framework, capturing the relative importance of competing sources of reintroductions of infection. We apply the method to the uniquely spatio-temporally detailed urban incidence dataset for measles in England and Wales, from 1944 to the infection's vaccine-induced nadir in the 1990s. We find that despite the regional influence of a few large cities (for example, London and Liverpool), metapopulation aggregation in neighbouring towns and cities played an important role in driving national dynamics in the prevaccination era. As vaccination levels increased in the 1970s and 1980s, the signature of spatially predictable spread diminished: increasingly, infection was introduced from unidentifiable random sources possibly outside regional metapopulations. The resulting erratic dynamics highlight the challenges of identifying shifting sources of infection and characterizing patterns of incidence in times of high vaccination coverage. More broadly, the underlying incidence and demographic data, accompanying this paper, will also provide an important resource for exploring nonlinear spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 U.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures

Investments in water and sanitation systems are believed to have led to the decline in typhoid fever in developed countries, such that most cases now occur in regions lacking adequate clean water and sanitation. Exploring seasonal and long-term patterns in historical typhoid mortality in the United States can offer deeper understanding of disease drivers. We fit modified Time-series Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models to city-level weekly mortality counts to estimate seasonal and long-term typhoid transmission. We examined seasonal transmission separately by city and aggregated by water source. Typhoid transmission peaked in late summer/early fall. Seasonality varied by water source, with the greatest variation occurring in cities with reservoirs. We then fit hierarchical regression models to measure associations between long-term transmission and annual financial investments in water and sewer systems. Overall historical $1 per capita ($16.13 in 2017) investments in the water supply were associated with approximately 5% (95% confidence interval: 3-6%) decreases in typhoid transmission, while $1 increases in the overall sewer system investments were associated with estimated 6% (95% confidence interval: 4-9%) decreases. Our findings aid in the understanding of typhoid transmission dynamics and potential impacts of water and sanitation improvements, and can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions to reduce the typhoid burden.

Tracking U.S. Pertussis Incidence: Correlation of Public Health Surveillance and Google Search Data Varies by State

The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document a raw proxy for counts of pertussis cases in the U.S., and the Project Tycho (PT) database provides an improved source of these weekly data. These data are limited because of reporting delays, variation in state-level surveillance practices, and changes over time in diagnosis methods. We aim to assess whether Google Trends (GT) search data track pertussis incidence relative to PT data and if sociodemographic characteristics explain some variation in the accuracy of state-level models. GT and PT data were used to construct auto-correlation corrected linear models for pertussis incidence in 2004-2011 for the entire U.S. and each individual state. The national model resulted in a moderate correlation (adjusted R2 = 0.2369, p < 0.05), and state models tracked PT data for some but not all states. Sociodemographic variables explained approximately 30% of the variation in performance of individual state-level models. The significant correlation between GT models and public health data suggests that GT is a potentially useful pertussis surveillance tool. However, the variable accuracy of this tool by state suggests GT surveillance cannot be applied in a uniform manner across geographic sub-regions.

Integer-valued functional data analysis for measles forecasting

Measles presents a unique and imminent challenge for epidemiologists and public health officials: the disease is highly contagious, yet vaccination rates are declining precipitously in many localities. Consequently, the risk of a measles outbreak continues to rise. To improve preparedness, we study historical measles data both prevaccine and postvaccine, and design new methodology to forecast measles counts with uncertainty quantification. We propose to model the disease counts as an integer-valued functional time series: measles counts are a function of time-of-year and time-ordered by year. The counts are modeled using a negative-binomial distribution conditional on a real-valued latent process, which accounts for the overdispersion observed in the data. The latent process is decomposed using an unknown basis expansion, which is learned from the data, with dynamic basis coefficients. The resulting framework provides enhanced capability to model complex seasonality, which varies dynamically from year-to-year, and offers improved multimonth-ahead point forecasts and substantially tighter forecast intervals (with correct coverage) compared to existing forecasting models. Importantly, the fully Bayesian approach provides well-calibrated and precise uncertainty quantification for epi-relevant features, such as the future value and time of the peak measles count in a given year. An R package is available online.

Molecular basis of bacterial disinfectant resistance

Antibiotic resistance could accelerate humanity towards an already fast-approaching post-antibiotic era, where disinfectants and effective biosecurity measures will be critically important to control microbial diseases. Disinfectant resistance has the potential to change our way of life from compromising food security to threatening our medical health systems. Resistance to antimicrobial agents occurs through either intrinsic or acquired resistance mechanisms. Acquired resistance occurs through the efficient transfer of mobile genetic elements, which can carry single, or multiple resistance determinants. Drug resistance genes may form part of integrons, transposons and insertions sequences which are capable of intracellular transfer onto plasmids or gene cassettes. Thereafter, resistance plasmids and gene cassettes mobilize by self-transmission between bacteria, increasing the prevalence of drug resistance determinants in a bacterial population. An accumulation of drug resistance genes through these mechanisms gives rise to multidrug resistant (MDR) bacteria. The study of this mobility is integral to safeguard current antibiotics, disinfectants and other antimicrobials. Literature evidence, however, indicates that knowledge regarding disinfectant resistance is severly limited. Genome engineering such as the CRISPR-Cas system, has identified disinfectant resistance genes, and reversed resistance altogether in certain prokaryotes. Demonstrating that these techniques could prove invaluable in the combat against disinfectant resistance by uncovering the secrets of MDR bacteria.

Vaccination coverage and immunity levels against vaccine-preventable diseases in male Air Force recruits in Greece

AIM

Data about susceptibility rates in young adults are scarce. We estimated the complete vaccination rates, timeliness of vaccinations and susceptibility rates among male military recruits in Greece.

METHODS

A standardized form was used to collect data. Immunity against measles, rubella, varicella, hepatitis A and hepatitis B was serologically estimated.

RESULTS

We studied 385 recruits with a mean age of 23.5 years (range: 18.3-29.9 years). Complete vaccination rates were 94.3% for measles, 100% for rubella, 15% for varicella, 73.9% for hepatitis A and 96.5% for hepatitis B. Only 10.8% of participants were fully vaccinated against all five diseases. Timely vaccination was 47.2% for measles, 89.3% for rubella and 48.1% for hepatitis B. Recruits >23 years had a 1.5-fold increased probability for incomplete vaccinations compared to younger recruits. Laboratory-confirmed immunity rates were 80% against measles, 85.7% against rubella, 85.2% against varicella, 69.4% against hepatitis A and 77.1% against hepatitis B. It is estimated that approximately 388,696 persons aged 18-30 years are susceptible to measles, 277,640 persons to rubella, 287,736 persons to varicella, 595,664 persons to hepatitis A and 444,224 persons to hepatitis B in Greece.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that young adults have significant immunity gaps against measles, rubella, varicella, hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Complete vaccination rates were suboptimal against hepatitis A and varicella. Strategies to access young adults and increase immunity rates through catch-up vaccination services should be investigated. A third dose of MMR vaccine should be considered for young adolescents in Greece.

Water and Filth: Reevaluating the First Era of Sanitary Typhoid Intervention (1840-1940)

While typhoid fever remains an important cause of illness in many low- and middle-income countries, important insights can be learned by exploring the historical experience with typhoid fever in industrialized countries. We used archival research to examine British and American attempts to control typhoid via sanitary interventions from the 1840s to 1940s. First, we assess how varying perceptions of typhoid and conflicts of interest led to a nonlinear evolution of control attempts in Oxford, United Kingdom. Our qualitative analysis shows how professional rivalries and tensions between Oxford's university and citizens ("gown and town"), as well as competing theories of typhoid proliferation stalled sanitary reform until the provision of cheap external credit created cross-party alliances at the municipal level. Second, we use historical mortality data to evaluate and quantify the impact of individual sanitary measures on typhoid transmission in major US cities. Together a historiographic and epidemiological study of past interventions provides insights for the planning of future sanitary programs.

Vaccination of healthcare personnel in Europe: Update to current policies

We investigated and compared current national vaccination policies for health-care personnel (HCP) in Europe with results from our previous survey. Data from 36 European countries were collected using the same methodology as in 2011. National policies for HCP immunization were in place in all countries. There were significant differences in terms of number of vaccinations, target HCP and healthcare settings, and implementation regulations (recommended or mandatory vaccinations). Vaccination policies against hepatitis B and seasonal influenza were present in 35 countries each. Policies for vaccination of HCP against measles, mumps, rubella and varicella existed in 28, 24, 25 and 19 countries, respectively; and against tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis and poliomyelitis in 21, 20, 19, and 18 countries, respectively. Recommendations for hepatitis A immunization existed in 17 countries, and against meningococcus B, meningococcus C, meningococcus A, C, W, Y, and tuberculosis in 10, 8, 17, and 7 countries, respectively. Mandatory vaccination policies were found in 13 countries and were a pre-requisite for employment in ten. Comparing the vaccination programs of the 30 European countries that participated in the 2011 survey, we found that more countries had national vaccination policies against measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis A, diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis, pertussis, meningococcus C and/or meningococcus A, C, W, Y; and more of these implemented mandatory vaccination policies for HCP. In conclusion, European countries now have more comprehensive national vaccination programs for HCP, however there are still gaps. Given the recent large outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in Europe and the occupational risk for HCP, vaccination policies need to be expanded and strengthened in several European countries. Overall, vaccination policies for HCP in Europe should be periodically re-evaluated in order to provide optimal protection against vaccine-preventable diseases and infection control within healthcare facilities for HCP and patients.

Trends in governmental expenditure on vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, a historical analysis

BACKGROUND

Health economic evaluations are often required before implementing a vaccination programme. Such evaluations rarely consider the historical context of a vaccination programme. We review the financial history of vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, and compare these to demographic and macroeconomic developments as well as avoided mortality burden.

METHODS

Previously uncatalogued historical expenditures on the Dutch National Immunisation Programme (NIP) and influenza vaccination were obtained from official reports. Costs were adjusted for inflation using Consumer Price Indices and expressed in Euro of 2016. Estimates on mortality burden averted were obtained from previous research and used to calculate the ratio of expenses to averted mortality burden for vaccinations against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, measles, mumps and rubella for birth cohorts 1953-1992.

RESULTS

Developments towards a uniform government funded NIP started early 1950s with vaccinations against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, culminating in its official launch in 1957 together with polio vaccinations. Since the 1980s, expenditure increased nearly five-fold mostly due to the addition of new vaccines, while spending on already implemented vaccinations tended to decline. Overall, expenditure increased from € 5 million in 1957 to € 93 million in 2014. Relative to total healthcare expenditure, the NIP contributed little, ranging between 0.05% and 0.14%. Spending on influenza vaccination increased from € 37 million in 1996 to € 52 million in 2014, while relative to total healthcare expenditure it decreased from 0.069% to 0.055%. In 2014, 0.15% of healthcare expenditure and € 533 per birth was spent on vaccination programmes. Overall, for birth cohorts 1953-1992, € 5.4 thousand (95% confidence interval: 4.0-7.3) was expended per year-of-life-lost averted.

CONCLUSION

The actual costs per year-of-life gained are more favorable than estimated here since averted medical costs were not included. Although expenditure on vaccination programmes increased substantially, the contribution to overall healthcare expenditure remained small.

heatmaply: an R package for creating interactive cluster heatmaps for online publishing

Summary

heatmaply is an R package for easily creating interactive cluster heatmaps that can be shared online as a stand-alone HTML file. Interactivity includes a tooltip display of values when hovering over cells, as well as the ability to zoom in to specific sections of the figure from the data matrix, the side dendrograms, or annotated labels. Thanks to the synergistic relationship between heatmaply and other R packages, the user is empowered by a refined control over the statistical and visual aspects of the heatmap layout.

Availability and implementation

The heatmaply package is available under the GPL-2 Open Source license. It comes with a detailed vignette, and is freely available from: http://cran.r-project.org/package=heatmaply.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Infectious Disease Hospitalizations: United States, 2001 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease epidemiology has changed over time, reflecting improved clinical interventions and emergence of threats such as antimicrobial resistance. This study investigated infectious disease hospitalizations in the United States from 2001 to 2014.

METHODS

Estimated rates of infectious disease hospitalizations were calculated by using the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample. Infectious disease hospitalizations were defined as hospitalizations with a principal discharge diagnosis of an infectious disease. Diagnoses according to site of infection and sepsis were examined, as was occurrence of in-hospital death. The leading nonsepsis infectious disease secondary diagnoses for hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of sepsis were identified.

RESULTS

The mean annual age-adjusted infectious disease hospitalization rate was 1,468.2 (95% CI, 1,459.9-1,476.4) per 100,000 population; in-hospital death occurred in 4.22% (95% CI, 4.18-4.25) of infectious disease hospitalizations. The mean annual age-adjusted infectious disease hospitalization rate increased from 2001-2003 to 2012-2014 (rate ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09), as did the percentage of in-hospital death (4.21% [95% CI, 4.13-4.29] to 4.30% [95% CI, 4.26-4.35]; P = .049). The diagnoses with the highest hospitalization rates among all sites of infection and sepsis diagnoses were the lower respiratory tract followed by sepsis. The most common nonsepsis infectious disease secondary diagnoses among sepsis hospitalizations were "urinary tract infection," "pneumonia, organism unspecified," and "intestinal infection due to Clostridium [Clostridioides] difficile."

CONCLUSIONS

Although hospital discharge data are subject to limitations, particularly for tracking sepsis, lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis seem to be important contributors to infectious disease hospitalizations. Prevention of infections that lead to sepsis and improvements in sepsis management would decrease the burden of infectious disease hospitalizations and improve outcomes, respectively.

Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks: Web-Based Analytics Facilitating Situational Awareness in Unfolding Disease Outbreaks

Background

Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and their impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages, when incoming information is sparse and isolated, to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation.

Objective

This study aimed to develop a publicly accessible Web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO) that uses historical disease outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak.

Methods

We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic. The 4 major steps involved in developing this tool were (1) collection of historic outbreak data and preparation of the representative library, (2) development of AIDO algorithms, (3) development of user interface and associated visuals, and (4) verification and validation.

Results

The tool currently includes representative historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 600 diverse outbreaks. We identified 27 different properties categorized into 3 broad domains (population, location, and disease) that were used to evaluate outbreaks across all diseases for their effect on case count and duration of an outbreak. Statistical analyses revealed disease-specific properties from this set that were included in the disease-specific similarity algorithm. Although there were some similarities across diseases, we found that statistically important properties tend to vary, even between similar diseases. This may be because of our emphasis on including diverse representative outbreak presentations in our libraries. AIDO algorithm evaluations (similarity algorithm and short-term forecasting) were conducted using 4 case studies and we have shown details for the Q fever outbreak in Bilbao, Spain (2014), using data from the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from only the initial 2 weeks, AIDO identified historical outbreaks that were very similar in terms of their epidemiological picture (case count, duration, source of exposure, and urban setting). The short-term forecasting algorithm accurately predicted case count and duration for the unfolding outbreak.

Conclusions

AIDO is a decision support tool that facilitates increased situational awareness during an unfolding outbreak and enables informed decisions on mitigation strategies. AIDO analytics are available to epidemiologists across the globe with access to internet, at no cost. In this study, we presented a new approach to applying historical outbreak data to provide actionable information during the early stages of an unfolding infectious disease outbreak.

On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and environment. Therefore, outbreak forecasting requires an integrative approach to modeling. While specific components of outbreaks are predictable, it remains unclear whether fundamental limits to outbreak prediction exist. Here, adopting permutation entropy as a model independent measure of predictability, we study the predictability of a diverse collection of outbreaks and identify a fundamental entropy barrier for disease time series forecasting. However, this barrier is often beyond the time scale of single outbreaks, implying prediction is likely to succeed. We show that forecast horizons vary by disease and that both shifting model structures and social network heterogeneity are likely mechanisms for differences in predictability. Our results highlight the importance of embracing dynamic modeling approaches, suggest challenges for performing model selection across long time series, and may relate more broadly to the predictability of complex adaptive systems.

Peptidoglycan Recognition Protein 4 Suppresses Early Inflammatory Responses to Bordetella pertussis and Contributes to Sphingosine-1-Phosphate Receptor Agonist-Mediated Disease Attenuation

Incidence of whooping cough (pertussis), a bacterial infection of the respiratory tract caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis, has reached levels not seen since the 1950s. Antibiotics fail to improve the course of disease unless administered early in infection. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the development of antipertussis therapeutics. Sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor (S1PR) agonists have been shown to reduce pulmonary inflammation during Bordetella pertussis infection in mouse models. However, the mechanisms by which S1PR agonists attenuate pertussis disease are unknown. We report the results of a transcriptome sequencing study examining pulmonary transcriptional responses in B. pertussis-infected mice treated with S1PR agonist AAL-R or vehicle control. This study identified peptidoglycan recognition protein 4 (PGLYRP4) as one of the most highly upregulated genes in the lungs of infected mice following S1PR agonism. PGLYRP4, a secreted, innate mediator of host defenses, was found to limit early inflammatory pathology in knockout mouse studies. Further, S1PR agonist AAL-R failed to attenuate pertussis disease in PGLYRP4 knockout (KO) mice. B. pertussis virulence factor tracheal cytotoxin (TCT), a secreted peptidoglycan breakdown product, induces host tissue damage. TCT-oversecreting strains were found to drive an early inflammatory response similar to that observed in PGLYRP4 KO mice. Further, TCT-oversecreting strains induced significantly greater pathology in PGLYRP4-deficient animals than their wild-type counterparts. Together, these data indicate that S1PR agonist-mediated protection against pertussis disease is PGLYRP4 dependent. Our data suggest PGLYRP4 functions, in part, by preventing TCT-induced airway damage.

Project Tycho 2.0: a repository to improve the integration and reuse of data for global population health

Objective

In 2013, we released Project Tycho, an open-access database comprising 3.6 million counts of infectious disease cases and deaths reported for over a century by public health surveillance in the United States. Our objective is to describe how Project Tycho version 1 (v1) data has been used to create new knowledge and technology and to present improvements made in the newly released version 2.0 (v2).

Materials and Methods

We analyzed our user database and conducted online searches to analyze the use of Project Tycho v1 data. For v2, we added new US data and dengue data for other countries, and grouped data into 360 datasets, each with a digital object identifier and rich metadata. In addition, we used standard vocabularies to encode data where possible, improving compliance with FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) guiding principles for data management.

Results

Since release, 3174 people have registered to use Project Tycho data, leading to 18 new peer-reviewed papers and 27 other creative works, such as conference papers, student theses, and software applications. Project Tycho v2 comprises 5.7 million counts of infectious diseases in the United States and of dengue-related conditions in 98 additional countries.

Discussion

Project Tycho v2 contributes to improving FAIR compliance of global health data, but more work is needed to develop community-accepted standard representations for global health data.

Conclusion

FAIR principles are a valuable guide for improving the integration and reuse of data in global health to improve disease control and save lives.

Optimizing the utilization of aluminum adjuvants in vaccines: you might just get what you want

Aluminum-containing adjuvants have been used for over 90 years to enhance the immune response to vaccines. Recent work has significantly advanced our understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological properties of these adjuvants, offering key insights on underlying mechanisms. Given the long-term success of aluminum adjuvants, we believe that they should continue to represent the “gold standard” against which all new adjuvants should be compared. New vaccine candidates that require adjuvants to induce a protective immune responses should first be evaluated with aluminum adjuvants before other more experimental approaches are considered, since use of established adjuvants would facilitate both clinical development and the regulatory pathway. However, the continued use of aluminum adjuvants requires an appreciation of their complexities, in combination with access to the necessary expertise to optimize vaccine formulations. In this article, we will review the properties of aluminum adjuvants and highlight those elements that are critical to optimize vaccine performance. We will discuss how other components (excipients, TLR ligands, etc.) can affect the interaction between adjuvants and antigens, and impact the potency of vaccines. This review provides a resource and guide, which will ultimately contribute to the successful development of newer, more effective and safer vaccines.

Identification of a diphtheria toxin-like gene family beyond the Corynebacterium genus

Diphtheria toxin (DT), produced by Corynebacterium diphtheria, is the causative agent of diphtheria and one of the most potent protein toxins known; however, it has an unclear evolutionary history. Here, we report the discovery of a DT-like gene family in several bacterial lineages outside of Corynebacterium, including Austwickia and Streptomyces. These DT-like genes form sister lineages in the DT phylogeny and conserve key DT features including catalytic and translocation motifs, but possess divergent receptor-binding domains. DT-like genes are not associated with corynephage, but have undergone lateral transfer through a separate mechanism. The discovery of the first non-Corynebacterium homologs of DT sheds light on its evolutionary origin and highlights novelties that may have resulted in the emergence of DT targeting humans.

Helminths-based bi-functional molecule, tuftsin-phosphorylcholine (TPC), ameliorates an established murine arthritis

A novel small molecule named tuftsin-phosphorylcholine (TPC), which is linked to the biological activity of helminths, was constructed. The current study address the effect of TPC treatment in established collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) mice and propose TPC bi-functional activity. TPC treatment was initiated when clinical score was 2 to 4. Arthritis scores in TPC treated mice were lower compared to mice treated with vehicle (P < 0.001). Joint staining showed normal joint structure in TPC-treated mice compared to control groups treated with phosphate buffered saline (PBS), phosphorylcholine, or tuftsin, which exhibited severely inflamed joints. TPC enhanced anti-inflammatory response due to increased IL-10 secretion, and reduced pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion (IL-1-β, IL-6, TNF-αP < 0.001). Furthermore, TPC therapy increased expansion of CD4⁺CD25⁺FOXP3⁺T regulatory cells and IL-10⁺CD5⁺CD1d⁺B regulatory cells. We propose that the immunomodulatory activity of TPC can be a result of a bi-specific activity of TPC: (a) The tuftsin part of the TPC shifts RAW macrophage cells from pro-inflammatory macrophages M1 to anti-inflammatory M2-secreting IL-10 (P < 0.001) through neuropilin-1 and (b) TPC significantly reduce mouse TLR4 expression via NFkB pathway by HEK^TM cells (P < 0.02) via the phosphorylcholine site of the molecule. Our results indicate that TPC, significantly ameliorated established CIA by its immunomodulatory activity. These data could lead to a novel self bi-functional small molecule for treating patients with progressive RA.

A dynamic vaccination strategy to suppress the recurrent epidemic outbreaks

Efficient vaccination strategy is crucial for controlling recurrent epidemic spreading on networks. In this paper, based on the analysis of real epidemic data and simulations, it's found that the risk indicator of recurrent epidemic outbreaks could be determined by the ratio of the epidemic infection rate of the year to the average infected density of the former year. According to the risk indicator, the dynamic vaccination probability of each year can be designed to suppress the epidemic outbreaks. Our simulation results show that the dynamic vaccination strategy could effectively decrease the maximal and average infected density, and meanwhile increase the time intervals of epidemic outbreaks and individuals attacked by epidemic. In addition, our results indicate that to depress the influenza outbreaks, it is not necessary to keep the vaccination probability high every year; and adjusting the vaccination probability at right time could decrease the outbreak risks with lower costs. Our findings may present a theoretical guidance for the government and the public to control the recurrent epidemic outbreaks.

Differences in innate IFNγ and IL-17 responses to Bordetella pertussis between BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice: role of γδT cells, NK cells, and dendritic cells

Cell-mediated immune responses characterized by the secretion of IFNγ and IL-17 play an important role in the immune response to Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis). We investigated innate sources of IFNγ and IL-17 upon stimulation of spleen cells from BALB/c (B/c) and C57BL/6 (B6) mice with heat-killed B. pertussis (hkBp). Spleen cells from B/c mice secreted less IFNγ and more IL-17 than those from B6 mice. Innate IFNγ was produced predominantly by NK cells in B/c mice and by CD8 T cells and NK cells in B6 mice. Innate IL-17 was produced primarily by γδT cells in both mouse strains. The secretion of IFNγ was abrogated by anti-IL-12, and the production of IL-17 was abolished by anti-IL-1β- and anti-IL23-neutralizing antibodies. B/c dendritic cells (DCs) stimulated with hkBp secreted significantly more IL-1β and less IL-12 than B6 DCs. Differences in JNK phosphorylation in DCs suggest that this pathway plays a role in the differences between B/c and B6 strains. Mixed cultures of DCs and γδT cells from B/c and B6 showed that cytokines from DCs as well as γδT cell-intrinsic factors contributed to the robust innate IL-17 response in B/c strain. Stimulation of γδT cells with IL-1β and IL-23 was sufficient for IL-17 secretion whereas IL-12 inhibited the secretion of IL-17. A larger fraction of γδT cells were γδT-17 cells in B/c mice than B6 mice. Our data indicate important roles for genetically determined factors in the innate IFNγ and IL-17 responses to B. pertussis.

Heterogeneity Between States in the Health and Economic Impact of Measles Immunization in the United States

Background

Vaccines have been used successfully for disease elimination programs in many countries. Evidence on the impact of vaccination programs can support decision-making among medical practitioners and policy makers to improve immunization rates. We estimated the health and economic impact of measles vaccination for each of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia since 1964.

Methods

For each state, we fitted multiple time-series models to prevaccination data and used the best-fitting model to predict counterfactual cases that would have occurred in the absence of vaccination. We then subtracted observed from counterfactual measles cases, deaths, and related costs to estimate the impact of vaccination.

Results

We estimated that 149 million children were vaccinated against measles in the United States between 1964 and 2014, at a cost of $12.2 billion, and that vaccination prevented 29.8 million cases, 32 000 deaths, and $25.8 billion in societal costs. The impact exceeded the national average in 70% of Western and Northeastern states, compared with only 24% of Southern and Midwestern states.

Conclusions

The significant health and economic benefit of measles vaccination in the United States should encourage continued investments to sustain and expand vaccination programs globally.

Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data

Epidemic transitions are an important feature of infectious disease systems. As the transmissibility of a pathogen increases, the dynamics of disease spread shifts from limited stuttering chains of transmission to potentially large scale outbreaks. One proposed method to anticipate this transition are early-warning signals (EWS), summary statistics which undergo characteristic changes as the transition is approached. Although theoretically predicted, their mathematical basis does not take into account the nature of epidemiological data, which are typically aggregated into periodic case reports and subject to reporting error. The viability of EWS for epidemic transitions therefore remains uncertain. Here we demonstrate that most EWS can predict emergence even when calculated from imperfect data. We quantify performance using the area under the curve (AUC) statistic, a measure of how well an EWS distinguishes between numerical simulations of an emerging disease and one which is stationary. Values of the AUC statistic are compared across a range of different reporting scenarios. We find that different EWS respond to imperfect data differently. The mean, variance and first differenced variance all perform well unless reporting error is highly overdispersed. The autocorrelation, autocovariance and decay time perform well provided that the aggregation period of the data is larger than the serial interval and reporting error is not highly overdispersed. The coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis are found to be unreliable indicators of emergence. Overall, we find that seven of ten EWS considered perform well for most realistic reporting scenarios. We conclude that imperfect epidemiological data is not a barrier to using EWS for many potentially emerging diseases.

Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data

Model-based epidemiological assessment is useful to support decision-making at the beginning of an emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreak. However, early forecasts are generally unreliable as little information is available in the first few incidence data points. Here, we show how past Aedes-transmitted epidemics help improve these predictions. The approach was applied to the 2015-2017 Zika virus epidemics in three islands of the French West Indies, with historical data including other Aedes-transmitted diseases (chikungunya and Zika) in the same and other locations. Hierarchical models were used to build informative a priori distributions on the reproduction ratio and the reporting rates. The accuracy and sharpness of forecasts improved substantially when these a priori distributions were used in models for prediction. For example, early forecasts of final epidemic size obtained without historical information were 3.3 times too high on average (range: 0.2 to 5.8) with respect to the eventual size, but were far closer (1.1 times the real value on average, range: 0.4 to 1.5) using information on past CHIKV epidemics in the same places. Likewise, the 97.5% upper bound for maximal incidence was 15.3 times (range: 2.0 to 63.1) the actual peak incidence, and became much sharper at 2.4 times (range: 1.3 to 3.9) the actual peak incidence with informative a priori distributions. Improvements were more limited for the date of peak incidence and the total duration of the epidemic. The framework can adapt to all forecasting models at the early stages of emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreaks.

Challenges for nationwide vaccine delivery in African countries

Vaccines are very effective in providing individual and community (herd) immunity against a range of diseases. In addition to protection against a range of diseases, vaccines also have social and economic benefits. However, for vaccines to be effective, routine immunization programmes must be undertaken regularly to ensure individual and community protection. Nonetheless, in many countries in Africa, vaccination coverage is low because governments struggle to deliver vaccines to the most remote areas, thus contributing to constant outbreaks of various vaccine-preventable diseases. African governments fail to deliver vaccines to a significant percentage of the target population due to many issues in key areas such as policy setting, programme management and financing, supply chain, global vaccine market, research and development of vaccines. This review gives an overview of the causes of these issues and what is currently being done to address them. This review will discuss the role of philanthropic organisations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and global partnerships such as the global alliance for vaccines and immunizations in the development, purchase and delivery of vaccines.

Challenges in adult vaccination

Life-long primary prevention interventions beginning and continuing throughout an individual's lifetime are increasingly seen as key to meeting the global healthcare challenges that accompany demographic changes - a concept referred to as "Healthy aging". In this perspective, vaccination is seen as part of a triad, together with healthy diet and exercise. Current adult vaccine coverage is lower than target vaccination rates in most developed countries, and so vaccine preventable diseases continue to present a substantial burden on health and healthcare resources, especially in older individuals. In part, this is due to lack of knowledge and understanding of the benefits of vaccination, inconsistent recommendations by providers and uncertainties about cost benefits. However, lower vaccine effectiveness in older adults plays a part, and new vaccines with novel characteristics to improve effectiveness in older adults are required. A life-course immunization approach to ensure optimal vaccine uptake across adults of all ages can be expected to reduce morbidity and mortality in later life. To achieve this, greater emphasis on public and healthcare provider education is necessary, based on appropriate economic analyses that demonstrate the overall value of vaccination. This article introduces the technical, economic, political and demographic issues that make establishing effective adult vaccination programs such a difficult, but pressing issue, and outlines some of the steps that are now being taken to address them. Key messages Life-long preventive activities that start and continue throughout life are essential, especially as the world's population is "getting older". This "Healthy aging" approach includes not only healthy diet and physical exercise; vaccination is critical in reducing some infectious diseases and their complications. Many adults, especially older adults (who have lower immunity than younger people) develop infections such as influenza and shingles that could potentially be prevented through vaccination. This review provides a perspective on the challenges in delivering a life-course immunization program. While some vaccines are less effective in older people, newer vaccines have been developed which provide stronger and longer protection in older patients than standard existing vaccines. However, the benefits of vaccination can only be realized if the vaccines are recommended and used. For that purpose, greater education of patients and their healthcare providers is necessary. Better knowledge of vaccines and making sure that all adults are up to date with all their recommended vaccines is an essential part of "Healthy aging". This should prevent not only vaccine-preventable diseases but also reduce the risk of complications in later life.

Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands

Vaccination programmes are considered a main contributor to the decline of infectious diseases over the 20th century. In recent years, the national vaccination coverage in the Netherlands has been declining, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our aim was to quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands. We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections. In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 82.4% (95% credible interval (CI): 74.9-87.6) of notified cases of diphtheria averted, 92.9% (95% CI 85.0-97.2) cases of poliomyelitis, and 79.1% (95% CI 67.1-87.4) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 49.9% (95% CI 9.3-73.5) of cases, while universal vaccination averted 68.1% (95% CI 19.4-87.3) of cases. These findings show that vaccination programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

Vaccines Meet Big Data: State-of-the-Art and Future Prospects. From the Classical 3Is ("Isolate-Inactivate-Inject") Vaccinology 1.0 to Vaccinology 3.0, Vaccinomics, and Beyond: A Historical Overview

Vaccines are public health interventions aimed at preventing infections-related mortality, morbidity, and disability. While vaccines have been successfully designed for those infectious diseases preventable by preexisting neutralizing specific antibodies, for other communicable diseases, additional immunological mechanisms should be elicited to achieve a full protection. “New vaccines” are particularly urgent in the nowadays society, in which economic growth, globalization, and immigration are leading to the emergence/reemergence of old and new infectious agents at the animal–human interface. Conventional vaccinology (the so-called “vaccinology 1.0”) was officially born in 1796 thanks to the contribution of Edward Jenner. Entering the twenty-first century, vaccinology has shifted from a classical discipline in which serendipity and the Pasteurian principle of the three Is (isolate, inactivate, and inject) played a major role to a science, characterized by a rational design and plan (“vaccinology 3.0”). This shift has been possible thanks to Big Data, characterized by different dimensions, such as high volume, velocity, and variety of data. Big Data sources include new cutting-edge, high-throughput technologies, electronic registries, social media, and social networks, among others. The current mini-review aims at exploring the potential roles as well as pitfalls and challenges of Big Data in shaping the future vaccinology, moving toward a tailored and personalized vaccine design and administration.

Using a Mixed Methods Approach to Examine Practice Characteristics Associated With Implementation of an Adult Immunization Intervention Using the 4 Pillars Practice Transformation Program

Adult immunization rates are consistently suboptimal, exacting significant human and financial burden of preventable disease. Practice-level interventions to improve immunization rates have produced mixed results. The context of change critically affects implementation of evidence-based interventions. We conducted a randomized controlled cluster trial of the 4 Pillars Practice Transformation Program to increase adult vaccination rates in primary care practices and used qualitative methods to test intervention effects and understand practice characteristics associated with implementation success. We conducted qualitative interviews with staff from 14 practices to assess implementation experiences. Thematic analysis of data pointed to the importance of quality improvement history, communication and practice leadership, Immunization Champion leadership effectiveness, and organizational flexibility. Practices were scored on these characteristics and grouped into four types: Low Implementers, Medium Implementers, High Implementers, and Public/University Practices. Intervention uptake and immunization rate changes were compared, and a significant increase in influenza vaccination rates (3.9 percentage points [PPs]; p = .038) was observed for High Implementers only. Significant increases in Tdap vaccination rates were observed for High Implementers (9.3 PP; p = 0.006) and the Public/University groups (6.5 PP; p = 0.012), but not other groups. Practice characteristics may be critical factors in predicting intervention success.

Pediatric Resident Education and Preparedness Regarding Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

This study assessed pediatric residents' reported knowledge of and self-confidence in identifying/treating 8 vaccine-preventable diseases. Pediatric residents nationwide (n = 385) reported (1) if they had previously diagnosed measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, varicella, and/or polio; (2) their comfort level in treating these diseases; (3) the likelihood of identifying symptoms; and (4) 16 disease-related statements as true/false. More than 25% of residents were not comfortable treating 5 of the 8 diseases. More than 25% reported themselves as unlikely/extremely unlikely to identify symptoms of 3 of these diseases. Third- or fourth-year residents did not feel more confident in identifying disease symptoms than first-year residents, except for pertussis ( P ≤ .01). True/false statement accuracy ranged from 56.8% correct (polio) to 94.6% correct (pertussis). Most residents (73.3%) were "extremely concerned" regarding parental vaccine refusal, and 96.0% felt that they would benefit from receiving more information. Increased emphasis on this subject in residency education is essential for the management of potential disease outbreaks.

[Analysis of the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System in Brazil, 2014 to 2016Análisis del Sistema de Información de Vigilancia de Eventos Adversos Posvacunación en Brasil, 2014 a 2016]

OBJECTIVE

To describe the characteristics of vaccine adverse events (VAE) reports in the online VAE Reporting System (VAE-RS) after 2 years of operation.

METHOD

A descriptive analysis of VAE reports entered into the VAE-RS between July 2014 and June 2016 was performed.

RESULTS

During the study period, 24 732 VAE were reported. Of 5 570 Brazilian municipalities, 2 571 (46.2%) reported at least one VAE; however, only 1 622 (6.6%) reports had been completed/closed at the end of the study period. Of these, 89.9% referred to mild VAE. Among the completed reports, 19.7% did not provide information on "type of medical care provided," and 98.7% had no information regarding laboratory tests. Systemic neurological symptoms were the most frequent serious VAE among closed reports (59.5% of serious signs/symptoms). Concerning age, the highest VAE reporting coefficients were recorded for children aged ≤ 4 years.

CONCLUSION

The VAE-RS is useful to monitor immunization safety. However, municipal services must increase adherence to the system and perform the required investigation and reporting of VAE, with timely and adequate completion of the VAE-RS form. Knowledge regarding VAE can be used in the daily routine of surveillance services, improving the safety of immunobiological agents.

The impact of immunization programs on 10 vaccine preventable diseases in Italy: 1900-2015

BACKGROUND

Vaccination has determined a dramatic decline in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases over the last century. However, low perceived risk of the infectious threat and increased concern about vaccines' safety led to a reduction in vaccine coverage, with increased risk of disease outbreaks.

METHODS

Annual surveillance data of nationally communicable infectious diseases in Italy between 1900 and 2015 were used to derive trends in morbidity and mortality rates before and after vaccine introduction, focusing particularly on the effect of vaccination programs. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were applied to ten vaccine-preventable diseases: diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis, hepatitis B, pertussis, measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox, and invasive meningococcal disease. Results of these models referring to data before the immunization programs were projected on the vaccination period to estimate expected cases. The difference between observed and projected cases provided estimates of cases avoided by vaccination.

RESULTS

The temporal trend for each disease started with high incidence rates, followed by a period of persisting reduction. After vaccine introduction, and particularly after the recommendation for universal use among children, the current rates were much lower than those forecasted without vaccination, both in the whole population and among the 0-to-4 year olds, which is, generally, the most susceptible age class. Assuming that the difference between incidence rates before and after vaccination programs was attributable only to vaccine, more than 4 million cases were prevented, and nearly 35% of them among children in the early years of life. Diphtheria was the disease with the highest number of prevented cases, followed by mumps, chickenpox and measles.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal vaccination programs represent the most effective prevention tool against infectious diseases, having a major impact on human health. Health authorities should make any effort to strengthen public confidence in vaccines, highlighting scientific evidence of vaccination benefits.

Written reminders increase vaccine coverage in Danish children - evaluation of a nationwide intervention using The Danish Vaccination Register, 2014 to 2015

We evaluated a national intervention of sending written reminders to parents of children lacking childhood vaccinations, using the Danish Vaccination Register (DDV). The intervention cohort included the full birth cohort of 124,189 children born in Denmark who reached the age of 2 and 6.5 years from 15 May 2014 to 14 May 2015. The reference cohort comprised 124,427 children who reached the age of 2 and 6.5 years from 15 May 2013 to 14 May 2014. Vaccination coverage was higher in the intervention cohort at 2.5 and 7 years of age. The differences were most pronounced for the second dose of the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR2) and the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio vaccine DTaP-IPV4 among the 7-year-olds, with 5.0 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.5-5.4) and 6.4 percentage points (95% CI: 6.0-6.9), respectively. Among the 2.5 and 7-year-olds, the proportion of vaccinations in the preceding 6 months was 46% and three times higher, respectively, in the intervention cohort than the reference cohort. This study indicates a marked effect of personalised written reminders, highest for the vaccines given later in the schedule in the older cohort. In addition, the reminders increased awareness about correct registration of vaccinations in DDV.

Identification of New Features from Known Bacterial Protective Vaccine Antigens Enhances Rational Vaccine Design

With many protective vaccine antigens reported in the literature and verified experimentally, how to use the knowledge mined from these antigens to support rational vaccine design and study underlying design mechanism remains unclear. In order to address the problem, a systematic bioinformatics analysis was performed on 291 Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacterial protective antigens with experimental evidence manually curated in the Protegen database. The bioinformatics analyses evaluated included subcellular localization, adhesin probability, peptide signaling, transmembrane α-helix and β-barrel, conserved domain, Clusters of Orthologous Groups, and Gene Ontology functional annotations. Here we showed the critical role of adhesins, along with subcellular localization, peptide signaling, in predicting secreted extracellular or surface-exposed protective antigens, with mechanistic explanations supported by functional analysis. We also found a significant negative correlation of transmembrane α-helix to antigen protectiveness in Gram-positive and Gram-negative pathogens, while a positive correlation of transmembrane β-barrel was observed in Gram-negative pathogens. The commonly less-focused cytoplasmic and cytoplasmic membrane proteins could be potentially predicted with the help of other selection criteria such as adhesin probability and functional analysis. The significant findings in this study can support rational vaccine design and enhance our understanding of vaccine design mechanisms.

Geographic and demographic correlates of autism-related anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-15

This study examines temporal trends, geographic distribution, and demographic correlates of anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-2015. A total of 549,972 tweets were downloaded and coded for the presence of anti-vaccine beliefs through a machine learning algorithm. Tweets with self-disclosed geographic information were resolved and United States Census data were collected for corresponding areas at the micropolitan/metropolitan level. Trends in number of anti-vaccine tweets were examined at the national and state levels over time. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to determine census variables that were correlated with anti-vaccination tweet volume. Fifty percent of our sample of 549,972 tweets collected between 2009 and 2015 contained anti-vaccine beliefs. Anti-vaccine tweet volume increased after vaccine-related news coverage. California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania had anti-vaccination tweet volume that deviated from the national average. Demographic characteristics explained 67% of variance in geographic clustering of anti-vaccine tweets, which were associated with a larger population and higher concentrations of women who recently gave birth, households with high income levels, men aged 40 to 44, and men with minimal college education. Monitoring anti-vaccination beliefs on Twitter can uncover vaccine-related concerns and misconceptions, serve as an indicator of shifts in public opinion, and equip pediatricians to refute anti-vaccine arguments. Real-time interventions are needed to counter anti-vaccination beliefs online. Identifying clusters of anti-vaccination beliefs can help public health professionals disseminate targeted/tailored interventions to geographic locations and demographic sectors of the population.

[Adverse ocular effects of vaccinations]

Vaccinations are very effective measures for prevention of infections but are also associated with a long list of possible side effects. Adverse ocular effects following vaccination have been rarely reported or considered to be related to vaccinations. Conjunctivitis is a frequent sequel of various vaccinations. Oculorespiratory syndrome and serum sickness syndrome are considered to be related to influenza vaccinations. The risk of reactivation or initiation of autoimmune diseases (e. g. uveitis) cannot be excluded but has not yet been proven. Overall the benefit of vaccination outweighs the possible but very low risk of ocular side effects.

A self-affirmation exercise does not improve intentions to vaccinate among parents with negative vaccine attitudes (and may decrease intentions to vaccinate)

Two studies investigated the effectiveness of a self-affirmation exercise on vaccine safety beliefs and intent to vaccinate future children. In Study 1, a sample of 585 parents with at least one child under the age of 18 in the home participated through Amazon’s MTurk. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2 x 2 design. Participants read either correcting information refuting a link between the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism or a control passage about bird feeding. Additionally, participants either completed a self-affirmation exercise where they reflected on their personal values or in a control condition in which they reflected on least-personally-important values that might be important to others. Participants exposed to the correcting information were less likely to believe that vaccines cause serious side effects, but no less likely to believe that the MMR vaccine causes autism. For parents with initially positive vaccine attitudes, there was no effect of condition on intent to vaccinate a future child. For parents with initially negative vaccine attitudes, self-affirmation was ineffective in the presence of correcting information and resulted in less intention to vaccinate in the absence of correcting information. This effect was partially replicated in Study 2 (N = 576), which provided no correcting information but otherwise followed the same procedure as Study 1.

Geospatial analysis of nonmedical vaccine exemptions and pertussis outbreaks in the United States

Because of increased numbers of recorded pertussis cases in the United States, this study sought to understand the role of nonmedical vaccine exemptions and waning immunity may have had on the resurgence of pertussis in the United States at the community level. We used geospatial scan statistics, SaTScan, version 9.4, to analyze nonmedical vaccine exemptions of children entering kindergarten in 2011 and 2012 and reported pertussis cases in 2012 for children in age groups 5 years and younger and 10 to 14 years. Eight statistically significant clusters of nonmedical vaccine exemptions in kindergarteners and 11 statistically significant clusters of pertussis cases in children and adolescents were identified and geospatially linked. Forty-five percent of the counties in the study had high rates of nonmedical vaccine exemptions. The proportion of kindergarteners with nonmedical vaccine exemptions was 2.8 times larger in the identified exemption clusters. In addition, 31 counties had geographic clusters of high rates of pertussis in children ages 10 to 14 years old, consistent with waning immunity. Our findings are consistent with the view that geographic clusters of nonmedical vaccine exemptions and waning immunity may have been factors contributing to community-level pertussis outbreaks.

Therapeutic potential of helminths in autoimmune diseases: helminth-derived immune-regulators and immune balance

Helminths have accompanied human throughout history by releasing immune-evasion molecules that could counteract an aberrant immune response within the host. In the past decades, helminth infections are becoming less prevalent possibly due to the developed sanitation. Meanwhile, the incidence of autoimmune diseases is increasing, which cannot be exclusively explained by the changes of susceptibility genes. While the hygiene hypothesis casts light on the problem. The infections of helminths are believed to interact with and regulate human immunity with the byproduct of suppressing the autoimmune diseases. Thus, helminths are potential to treat or cure the autoimmune diseases. The therapeutic progresses and possible immune suppression mechanisms are illustrated in the review. The helminths that are studied most intensively include Heligmosomoides polygyrus, Hymenolepis diminuta, Schistosoma mansoni, Trichinella spiralis, and Trichuris suis. Special attentions are paid on the booming animal models and clinical trials that are to detect the efficiency of immune-modulating helminth-derived molecules on autoimmune diseases. These trials provide us with a prosperous clinical perspective, but the precise mechanism of the down-regulatory immune response remains to be clarified. More efforts are needed to be dedicated until these parasite-derived immune modulators could be used in clinic to treat or cure the autoimmune diseases under a standard management.

Synchronized and mixed outbreaks of coupled recurrent epidemics

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and most of them are focused on the growing aspect of a single epidemic outbreak. Recently, we extended the study to the case of recurrent epidemics (Sci. Rep. 5, 16010 (2015)) but limited only to a single network. We here report from the real data of coupled regions or cities that the recurrent epidemics in two coupled networks are closely related to each other and can show either synchronized outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur simultaneously in both networks or mixed outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur in one network but do not in another one. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we present a two-layered network model of coupled recurrent epidemics to reproduce the synchronized and mixed outbreak patterns. We show that the synchronized outbreak pattern is preferred to be triggered in two coupled networks with the same average degree while the mixed outbreak pattern is likely to show for the case with different average degrees. Further, we show that the coupling between the two layers tends to suppress the mixed outbreak pattern but enhance the synchronized outbreak pattern. A theoretical analysis based on microscopic Markov-chain approach is presented to explain the numerical results. This finding opens a new window for studying the recurrent epidemics in multi-layered networks.