Effect of intensity of oral anticoagulation on stroke severity and mortality in atrial fibrillation

Re-CHARGE-AF: Recalibration of the CHARGE-AF Model for Atrial Fibrillation Risk Prediction in Patients With Acute Stroke

Background

Performance of existing atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction models in poststroke populations is unclear. We evaluated predictive utility of an AF risk model in patients with acute stroke and assessed performance of a fully refitted model.

Methods and Results

Within an academic hospital, we included patients aged 46 to 94 years discharged for acute ischemic stroke between 2003 and 2018. We estimated 5‐year predicted probabilities of AF using the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology for Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE‐AF) model, by recalibrating CHARGE‐AF to the baseline risk of the sample, and by fully refitting a Cox proportional hazards model to the stroke sample (Re‐CHARGE‐AF) model. We compared discrimination and calibration between models and used 200 bootstrap samples for optimism‐adjusted measures. Among 551 patients with acute stroke, there were 70 incident AF events over 5 years (cumulative incidence, 15.2%; 95% CI, 10.6%–19.5%). Median predicted 5‐year risk from CHARGE‐AF was 4.8% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 2.0–12.6) and from Re‐CHARGE‐AF was 16.1% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 8.0–26.2). For CHARGE‐AF, discrimination was moderate (C statistic, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.57–0.70) and calibration was poor, underestimating AF risk (Greenwood‐Nam D’Agostino chi‐square, P<0.001). Calibration with recalibrated baseline risk was also poor (Greenwood‐Nam D’Agostino chi‐square, P<0.001). Re‐CHARGE‐AF improved discrimination (P=0.001) compared with CHARGE‐AF (C statistic, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.68–0.79]; optimism‐adjusted, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65–0.75]) and was well calibrated (Greenwood‐Nam D’Agostino chi‐square, P=0.97).

Conclusions

Covariates from an established AF risk model enable accurate estimation of AF risk in a poststroke population after recalibration. A fully refitted model was required to account for varying baseline AF hazard and strength of associations between covariates and incident AF.

Overview of Acute Ischemic Stroke Evaluation and Management

Stroke is a major contributor to death and disability worldwide. Prior to modern therapy, post-stroke mortality was approximately 10% in the acute period, with nearly one-half of the patients developing moderate-to-severe disability. The most fundamental aspect of acute stroke management is "time is brain". In acute ischemic stroke, the primary therapeutic goal of reperfusion therapy, including intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IV TPA) and/or endovascular thrombectomy, is the rapid restoration of cerebral blood flow to the salvageable ischemic brain tissue at risk for cerebral infarction. Several landmark endovascular thrombectomy trials were found to be of benefit in select patients with acute stroke caused by occlusion of the proximal anterior circulation, which has led to a paradigm shift in the management of acute ischemic strokes. In this modern era of acute stroke care, more patients will survive with varying degrees of disability post-stroke. A comprehensive stroke rehabilitation program is critical to optimize post-stroke outcomes. Understanding the natural history of stroke recovery, and adapting a multidisciplinary approach, will lead to improved chances for successful rehabilitation. In this article, we provide an overview on the evaluation and the current advances in the management of acute ischemic stroke, starting in the prehospital setting and in the emergency department, followed by post-acute stroke hospital management and rehabilitation.

RHEDAR study: Determination of the risk of gastrointestinal hemorrhage in treatment with dabigatran, acenocoumarol and rivaroxaban

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Atrial fibrillation is a major cause of death and disability due to stroke. Vitamin K antagonist drugs are effective for prevention, but they have a narrow therapeutic range and multiple pharmacological interactions. In recent years, new therapeutic alternatives have been searched to minimize complications. The main objective is to evaluate the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding in anticoagulated patients and compare the classic treatment with new anticoagulants.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to determine the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding in patients treated with acenocoumarol/dabigatran/rivaroxaban, between 2012 and 2016. We compared the classic with the new anticoagulant group, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determinate the risk factors of gastrointestinal bleeding.

RESULTS

A total of 1213 patients were selected, 52.7% male patients, a mean age of 72.6 years old (± 14.563). 73.6% had atrial fibrilation. 14.5% of patients used acetylsalicylic acid, and 4% clopidogrel. 67.2% had a high-risk CHADS-2 Score, and 36.9% a high-risk HAS-BLED Score. We determined a 5.6% (68) of gastrointestinal bleeding, without differences according to anticoagulant used. The multivariate model showed a greater risk for digestive hemorrhage in patients with a previous hemorrhagic event (odds ratio [OR] = 2.422 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.101-5.327) and the concomitant therapy with clopidogrel (OR = 2.373 95% CI: 0.996-5.652).

CONCLUSIONS

No differences were found in the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding between the different anticoagulants. A previous gastrointestinal bleeding were considered independent risk factor. The HAS-BLED score should be taken into account to make clinical decisions about to prescribe anticoagulant treatment.

Comparative Clinical Effectiveness of Population-Based Atrial Fibrillation Screening Using Contemporary Modalities: A Decision-Analytic Model

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening is endorsed by certain guidelines for individuals aged ≥65 years. Yet many AF screening strategies exist, including the use of wrist-worn wearable devices, and their comparative effectiveness is not well-understood. Methods and Results We developed a decision-analytic model simulating 50 million individuals with an age, sex, and comorbidity profile matching the United States population aged ≥65 years (ie, with a guideline-based AF screening indication). We modeled no screening, in addition to 45 distinct AF screening strategies (comprising different modalities and screening intervals), each initiated at a clinical encounter. The primary effectiveness measure was quality-adjusted life-years, with incident stroke and major bleeding as secondary measures. We defined continuous or nearly continuous modalities as those capable of monitoring beyond a single time-point (eg, patch monitor), and discrete modalities as those capable of only instantaneous AF detection (eg, 12-lead ECG). In total, 10 AF screening strategies were effective compared with no screening (300-1500 quality-adjusted life-years gained/100 000 individuals screened). Nine (90%) effective strategies involved use of a continuous or nearly continuous modality such as patch monitor or wrist-worn wearable device, whereas 1 (10%) relied on discrete modalities alone. Effective strategies reduced stroke incidence (number needed to screen to prevent a stroke: 3087-4445) but increased major bleeding (number needed to screen to cause a major bleed: 1815-4049) and intracranial hemorrhage (number needed to screen to cause intracranial hemorrhage: 7693-16 950). The test specificity was a highly influential model parameter on screening effectiveness. Conclusions When modeled from a clinician-directed perspective, the comparative effectiveness of population-based AF screening varies substantially upon the specific strategy used. Future screening interventions and guidelines should consider the relative effectiveness of specific AF screening strategies.

Automated detection of premature ventricular contraction based on the improved gated recurrent unit network

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Premature ventricular contraction (PVC) is the common arrhythmia disease, affecting thousands of individuals worldwide. However, the traditional PVC detection is cumbersome by visually inspecting electrocardiogram (ECG) signals.

METHODS

In this work, we specially propose an improved gated recurrent unit (IGRU) by setting a scale parameter into existing bidirectional GRU (BGRU) model for PVC signals recognition, which is used to alleviate the problem of information redundancy in BGRU. To verify the effectiveness, IGRU model will be embedded into a convolutional network frame and existing GRU and BGRU models are employed as control groups for a fair comparison.

RESULTS

The results exhibit that the model attains better model performance than control groups and several state-of-the-art algorithms with the accuracy of 98.3% and 97.9% with the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database and China Physiological Signal Challenge 2018 database. Besides, motivated from the waveform characteristics of ECG signals in PVC, the proposed model can provide certain physiological interpretability for physicians and researchers.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to re-design the existing GRU network for ECG signals classification, thus exhibiting great application potentials especially in lightweight equipment such as mobile phone and camera.

Examining Adherence to Medication in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: The Role of Medication Beliefs, Attitudes, and Depression

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether beliefs about medicines, drug attitudes, and depression independently predicted anticoagulant and antiarrhythmic adherence (focusing on the implementation phase of nonadherence) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was part of a larger longitudinal study. Patients with AF (N = 118) completed the Patient Health Questionnaire-8. The Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire, Drug Attitude Inventory, and Morisky-Green-Levine Medication Adherence Scale (self-report adherence measure), related to anticoagulants and antiarrhythmics, were also completed. Correlation and multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in nonadherence to anticoagulants or antiarrhythmics. Greater concerns (r = 0.23, P = .01) were significantly, positively associated with anticoagulant nonadherence only. Depression and drug attitudes were not significantly associated with anticoagulant/antiarrhythmic adherence. Predictors reliably distinguished adherers and nonadherers to anticoagulant medication in the regression model, explaining 14% of the variance, but only concern beliefs (odds ratio, 1.20) made a significant independent contribution to prediction (χ = 11.40, P = .02, with df = 4). When entered independently into a regression model, concerns (odds ratio, 1.24) significantly explained 10.3% of the variance (χ = 7.97, P = .01, with df = 1). Regressions were not significant for antiarrhythmic medication (P = .30).

CONCLUSIONS

Specifying medication type is important when examining nonadherence in chronic conditions. Concerns about anticoagulants, rather than depression, were significantly associated with nonadherence to anticoagulants but not antiarrhythmics. Anticoagulant concerns should be targeted at AF clinics, with an aim to reduce nonadherence and potentially modifiable adverse outcomes such as stroke.

Changing paradigms: from prevention of thromboembolic events to improved survival in patients with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of stroke. Current guidelines recommend the use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to stratify the risk of stroke. In addition, guidelines recommend the identification of the conditions that increase the risk of haemorrhage to be modified and thus decrease the risk of bleeding. Nevertheless, many patients with a high thromboembolic risk are prescribed antiplatelet treatment or do not receive any antithrombotic therapy. In addition, therapeutic inertia is common in anticoagulated patients taking vitamin K antagonists, and underdosing is an emerging problem with direct oral anticoagulants, probably because many physicians consider the risk of stroke and the risk of major bleeding to be equal. It is necessary to develop a new approach to risk stratification, an approach that moves from morbidity to mortality, i.e., from stratification of the risk of stroke and major bleeding to stratification of the risk of mortality associated with stroke and the risk of mortality associated with bleeding. In this article, we propose a novel risk stratification approach based on the mortality associated with stroke and bleeding, illustrated by data derived from the literature.

Temporal trends in cause-specific mortality among individuals with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

All-cause mortality following atrial fibrillation (AF) has decreased over time. Data regarding temporal trends in causes of death among individuals with AF are scarce. The aim of our study was to analyze temporal trends in cause-specific mortality and predictors for cardiovascular (CVD) and non-CVD deaths among participants with incident AF in the Framingham Heart Study.

METHODS

We categorized all newly diagnosed AF cases according to age at AF diagnosis (< 70, 70 to < 80, and ≥ 80 years) and epoch of AF diagnosis (< 1990, 1990-2002, and ≥ 2003). We followed participants until death or the last follow-up. We categorized death causes into CVD, non-CVD, and unknown causes. For each age group, we tested for trends in the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death across epochs. We fit multivariable Fine-Gray models to assess subdistribution hazard ratios (HR) between clinical risk factors at AF diagnosis and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

We included 2125 newly diagnosed AF cases (mean age 75.5 years, 47.8% women). During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 1657 individuals with AF died. There was evidence of decreasing CVD mortality among AF cases diagnosed < 70 years and 70 to < 80 years (ptrend < 0.001) but not ≥ 80 years (p = 0.76). Among the cases diagnosed < 70 years, the cumulative incidence of CVD death at 75 years was 67.7% in epoch 1 and 13.9% in epoch 3; among those 70 to < 80 years, the incidence at 85 years was 58.9% in epoch 1 and 18.9% in epoch 3. Advancing age (HR per 1 SD increase 6.33, 95% CI 5.44 to 7.37), prior heart failure (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.94), and prior myocardial infarction (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.15-1.80) were associated with increased rate of CVD death.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based cohort, CVD mortality among AF cases decreased over time. Most deaths in individuals with AF are no longer CVD-related, regardless of age at AF diagnosis.

Stroke Severity and Outcomes in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose: Once a stroke occurs in a patient with atrial fibrillation (AF), it is likely to be severe. Patients with newly diagnosed AF after stroke and those with known AF before stroke have different background characteristics, yet the difference in stroke severity has not been sufficiently evaluated. In the current study, we compared the stroke severity and in-hospital outcomes between these patient groups.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a database of 196 patients with acute ischemic stroke and AF between January 2010 and October 2019. We divided the patients into two groups: patients with “newly diagnosed AF” and those with “known AF.” We assessed the stroke severity using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission and in-hospital outcomes using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at discharge.

Results: The proportion of newly diagnosed AF was 33% (64/196). There were no differences in age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and past history of heart failure between patients with newly diagnosed AF and those with known AF. Patients with newly diagnosed AF were associated with a lower proportion of male sex (male; 50 vs. 67%, p < 0.05), a lower proportion of past history of stroke (12 vs. 35%, p < 0.01), a lower CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (median [interquartile range]; 3 [2–4] vs. 3.5 [3–5], p < 0.01), and a lower proportion of pre-stroke oral anticoagulation (5 vs. 59%, p < 0.01). There were no differences in the NIHSS score on admission (12 [4–19] vs. 9 [3–19]) or the mRS score at discharge (3 [1–5] vs. 3 [1–5]). After adjustment for relevant covariates, newly diagnosed AF was not associated with the NIHSS score on admission [adjusted common odds ratio (OR), 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–1.60] or the mRS score at discharge (adjusted common OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 0.88–3.18). After propensity score matching, newly diagnosed AF was not associated with the NIHSS score on admission (adjusted common OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.48–1.73) and the mRS score at discharge (adjusted common OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.92–3.43).

Conclusion: Stroke severity and in-hospital outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed AF did not differ from those in patients with known AF after adjustment for clinically relevant factors. The importance of detection of latent AF and subsequent anticoagulation in preventing severe stroke should be further emphasized.

The health impacts of preventive cardiovascular medication reduction on older populations: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Polypharmacy is inevitable and appropriate for many conditions, but in some cases, it can be problematic resulting in an increased risk of harm and reduced quality of life. There has been an increasing interest to reduce cardioprotective medications in older adults to potentially reduce the risk of harm due to treatment; however, there is no evidence on safety and efficacy to support this practice currently. This paper describes a protocol for a systematic review on the safety and efficacy of reducing cardioprotective medication in older populations.

METHODS

MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), and CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) will be searched from their inception onwards for relevant studies. Randomised controlled trials and non-randomised studies on interventions (prospective, retrospective cohort, case-control) conducted in older adults (75 years or older) examining reduction of cardioprotective medications will be included. The primary outcome of this study will be all-cause hospitalisation. Secondary outcome variables of interest are all-cause hospitalisation, mortality, quality of life, serious adverse events, major adverse cardiovascular events, falls, fractures, cognitive functioning, bleeding events, renal functioning, medication burden, drug reinstatement, time-in-hospital, and frailty status. Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, full-text articles, and extract data. Confidence in cumulative evidence will be assessed using the GRADE approach; the risk of bias will be assessed by the RoB-II tool for randomised controlled studies and ROBINS-I for non-randomised studies. Where sufficient data are available, we will conduct a random effects meta-analysis by combining the outcomes of the included studies. Sub-group analysis and meta-regression are planned to assess the potential harms and risks of different drug classes and the impacts in different patient populations (e.g. sex, cognitive status, renal status, and age).

DISCUSSION

The study will be a comprehensive review on all published articles identified using our search strategy on the safety and efficacy of cardioprotective medication reduction in the older population. The findings will be crucial to inform clinicians on potential health outcomes of reducing cardiovascular medication in the elderly.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020208223.

Long-Term Clinical Outcomes of Underdosed Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter

BACKGROUND

Although direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been shown to be effective at reducing the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), they are sometimes underdosed off-label to mitigate their associated higher bleeding risk. We sought to evaluate frequency and clinical outcomes of inappropriate underdosing of DOACS in patients with AF.

METHODS

We conducted a study of subjects with AF who had a clinical indication for stroke prophylaxis (with a congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65 to 47 years, sex category [CHA₂DS₂-VASc] of 2 or greater) and were prescribed 1 of the 4 clinically approved DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, or edoxaban). We compared all-cause mortality, composite of stroke and systemic embolism, composite of myocardial infarction (MI), acute coronary syndromes (ACS), and coronary revascularization, and major bleeding between patients appropriately dosed and inappropriately underdosed.

RESULTS

A total of 8125 patients met inclusion criteria, with a mean follow up of 2.2 ± 2 years. Of those, 1724 patients (21.2%) were inappropriately dosed. After adjusting for baseline variables, there was no difference in all-cause mortality, risk of stroke or systemic embolism, International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) major bleeding, or composite of myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndromes, or coronary revascularization between patients appropriately dosed and inappropriately underdosed. In subgroup analysis, only apixaban demonstrated an increased incidence all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.49) with inappropriate underdosing. There was no difference in the remaining clinical outcomes noted on subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSION

Underdosing of DOACs did not minimize risk of bleeding, systemic embolization or all-cause mortality in patients with AF. Inappropriate underdosing with apixaban in particular was associated with increased all-cause mortality.

[Results of endocardial pulmonary vein cryoablation in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the results of endocardial pulmonary vein cryoablation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The authors report postoperative outcomes in 19 patients after on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve surgery and endocardial pulmonary vein cryoablation for concomitant AF. All procedures were performed for the period from September 2018 to December 2020.

RESULTS

Successful procedure was determined by restoration of stable sinus rhythm in postoperative period. In 14 (79%) patients, sinus rhythm was restored in early postoperative period. In 5 (21%) patients (2 women, 3 men), AF recurred within 6-12 days after surgery. In one patient, postoperative period was complicated by atrioventricular blockade grade I.

CONCLUSION

Endocardial pulmonary vein cryoablation is effective for AF. This procedure is expedient in patients with concomitant cardiac disease scheduled for open heart surgery.

Usefulness of Rhythm Monitoring Following Acute Ischemic Stroke

We characterized monitor utilization in stroke survivors and assessed associations with underlying clinical atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke 10/2018-6/2019 without prevalent AF and assessed the 6-month incidence of monitor utilization (Holter/ECG, event/patch, implantable loop recorder [ILR]) using Fine-Gray models accounting for the competing risk of death. We assessed for predictors of monitor utilization using cause-specific hazards regression adjusted for the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE-AF) score, stroke subtype, and discharge disposition. Of 493 patients with acute ischemic stroke (age 65±16; 47% women), the 6-month incidence of monitor utilization was 36.5% (95% CI 31.7, 41.3), and 6-month mortality was 13.6% (10.4, 16.8). Monitoring was performed with Holter/event (n = 107; 72.3%), ILR (n = 34; 23.0%) or both (n = 7; 4.7%). Monitoring was more likely after cryptogenic (hazard ratio [HR] 4.53 [3.22, 6.39]; 6-month monitor incidence 70.6%) and cardioembolic (HR 2.43 [1.28, 4.62]; incidence 47.7%) stroke, versus other/undocumented (incidence 22.7%). Among patients with cryptogenic stroke, the 6-month incidence of ILR was 27.5% [18.5, 36.5]. Monitoring was more likely after discharge home (HR 1.80 [1.29, 2.52]; incidence 46.1%) versus facility (incidence 24.9%). Monitoring was not associated with CHARGE-AF score (HR 1.08 per 1-SD increase [0.91, 1.27]), even though CHARGE-AF was associated with incident AF (HR 1.56 [1.03, 2.35]). In conclusion, rhythm monitors are utilized after one-third of ischemic strokes. Monitoring is more frequent after cryptogenic strokes, though ILR use is low. Monitor utilization is not associated with AF risk.

Dose specific effectiveness and safety of DOACs in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A Canadian retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been proven to be effective and safe for prevention of ischemic stroke and systemic embolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, suboptimal adherence, variable dosing and use in patient populations that otherwise would have been excluded from clinical trials may impact the efficacy and safety profile of DOACs in a routine care setting. We compared stroke, bleeding, and mortality rates on and off therapy for standard and low-dose DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran) versus warfarin in a Canadian cohort. We also assessed persistence of DOACs compared to warfarin.

METHODS

We conducted six 1-1 propensity-score matched retrospective cohort analyses using Quebec health administrative databases (2011-2017). NVAF patients (≥18 years) covered by the public medication insurance plan entered the cohort on the first OAC dispensation date. We excluded those with OAC use in the previous year or stroke or bleeding diagnoses in the previous two years. Follow-up ended at death, March 2017 or end of medication coverage by the public plan. Time-dependent Cox regression was applied.

RESULTS

We evaluated 10,893 patients initiated on apixaban (7206 standard, 3687 low-dose), 10,190 on rivaroxaban (7396 standard, 2794 low-dose), 5884 on dabigatran (2756 standard, 3128 low-dose), and propensity score-matched warfarin users. Across standard-dose DOACs, compared to warfarin, stroke risks were similar; bleeding risks were lower with apixaban (hazard ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.77) and dabigatran (0.47; 0.35-0.64) but not rivaroxaban (0.93; 0.79-1.10); death risks were lower with all DOACs. For low-dose DOACs, rivaroxaban demonstrated higher stroke (1.79; 1.21-2.64) and bleeding risks (1.37; 1.09-1.73); other agents had stroke risks similar to warfarin and bleeding risks lower than warfarin; only low-dose dabigatran had lower death risk (0.59; 0.52-0.68). Treatment discontinuation was lower with DOACs versus warfarin with the exception of low-dose rivaroxaban. The risks of stroke were 2-4 folds higher during time off any OAC versus time on warfarin. The risks of death were higher, while the risks of bleeding were generally lower during times off any OAC.

CONCLUSIONS

Standard-dose DOACs had similar stroke, better persistence and mortality profiles than warfarin. Only standard dose apixaban and dabigatran had better bleeding profiles than warfarin. Low-dose rivaroxaban had worse persistence, stroke and bleeding profiles than warfarin, while low-dose apixaban and dabigatran had similar stroke and better bleeding profiles. Real-world use of DOACs may explain some of the differences observed in Canadian routine care versus the phase III clinical trials.

Developing more generalizable prediction models from pooled studies and large clustered data sets

Prediction models often yield inaccurate predictions for new individuals. Large data sets from pooled studies or electronic healthcare records may alleviate this with an increased sample size and variability in sample characteristics. However, existing strategies for prediction model development generally do not account for heterogeneity in predictor‐outcome associations between different settings and populations. This limits the generalizability of developed models (even from large, combined, clustered data sets) and necessitates local revisions. We aim to develop methodology for producing prediction models that require less tailoring to different settings and populations. We adopt internal‐external cross‐validation to assess and reduce heterogeneity in models' predictive performance during the development. We propose a predictor selection algorithm that optimizes the (weighted) average performance while minimizing its variability across the hold‐out clusters (or studies). Predictors are added iteratively until the estimated generalizability is optimized. We illustrate this by developing a model for predicting the risk of atrial fibrillation and updating an existing one for diagnosing deep vein thrombosis, using individual participant data from 20 cohorts (N = 10 873) and 11 diagnostic studies (N = 10 014), respectively. Meta‐analysis of calibration and discrimination performance in each hold‐out cluster shows that trade‐offs between average and heterogeneity of performance occurred. Our methodology enables the assessment of heterogeneity of prediction model performance during model development in multiple or clustered data sets, thereby informing researchers on predictor selection to improve the generalizability to different settings and populations, and reduce the need for model tailoring. Our methodology has been implemented in the R package metamisc.

Quality of anticoagulation with warfarin in rural Chhattisgarh, India

Background & objectives

In most of rural India, warfarin is the only oral anticoagulant available. Among patients taking warfarin, there is a strong association between poor control of the international normalized ratio (INR) and adverse events. This study was aimed to quantify INR control in a secondary healthcare system in rural Chhattisgarh, India.

Methods

The INR data were retrospectively obtained from all patients taking warfarin during 2014-2016 at a secondary healthcare system in rural Chhattisgarh, India. Patients attending the clinic had their INR checked at the hospital laboratory and their warfarin dose adjusted by a physician on the same day. The time in therapeutic range (TTR) was calculated for patients who had at least two INR visits.

Results

The 249 patients had 2839 INR visits. Their median age was 46 yr, and the median body mass index was 17.7 kg/m^[2]. They lived a median distance of 78 km (2-3 h of travel) from the hospital. The median INR was 1.7 for a target INR of 2.0-3.0 (n=221) and 2.1 for a target of 2.5-3.5 (n=28). The median TTR was 13.0 per cent, and INR was subtherapeutic 66.0 per cent of the time. Distance from the hospital was not correlated with TTR.

Interpretation & conclusions

INR values were subtherapeutic two-thirds of the time, and TTR values were poor regardless of distance from the health centre. Future studies should be done to identify interventions to improve INR control.

Plasma D-dimer level is associated with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation related acute ischemic stroke after pneumonia

Background

Pneumonia is related to poor prognosis in acute ischemic stroke (AIS), and its risk might be higher in atrial fibrillation (AF) related AIS with elevated plasma D-dimer. The aim of our study was to investigate the prognostic value of D-dimer for predicting clinical outcome of AF-related AIS with pneumonia.

Method

AF-related AIS patients with pneumonia were prospectively enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal D-dimer point for 3-month mortality and death/severe disability. The associations between the D-dimer and 3-month mortality and death/severe disability were assessed by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 415 patients were enrolled in this study. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut point of D-dimer for 3-month death/severe disability and mortality were D-dimer≥2.35 mg/l and D-dimer≥3.35 mg/l, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that D-dimer≥2.35 mg/l [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 5.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.04–11.83, P<0.001], higher NIHISS score (aOR:1.53, 95% CI: 1.38–1.69, P<0.001) and larger infarct volume (aOR 1.01, 95% CI: 1.01–1.02, P<0.001) were associated with increased risk of 3-month death/severe disability), and anticoagulant was associated with decreased risk of death/severe disability (aOR:0.21, 95% CI: 0.09–0.47, P<0.001). Higher NIHISS score (aOR:1.64, 95% CI: 1.38–1.94, P<0.001), older age (aOR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02–1.14, P = 0.007), D-dimer≥3.35 mg/l (OR 8.49, 95% CI: 4.13–17.84,P<0.001), larger infarct volume (aOR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03, P = 0.014), and higher CRUB-65 score (aOR 6.43, 95% CI: 3.10–13.34, P<0.001) were associated with increased risk of 3-month mortality.

Conclusions

AF-related AIS patients with concurrent high D-dimer and pneumonia increased risk of 3-month mortality and death/severe disability, plasma D-dimer may have predictive value in outcome after AF-related AIS with pneumonia.

Prognostic value of geriatric conditions for death and bleeding in older patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Geriatric conditions, such as frailty and cognitive impairment, are prevalent in older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We examined the prognostic value of geriatric conditions for predicting 1-year mortality and bleeding events in these patients.

Methods

SAGE (Systematic Assessment of Geriatric Elements)-AF study is a multicenter cohort study which enrolled individuals (mean age 75 years, 48% women, 86% taking oral anticoagulation) 65 years and older with AF and CHA₂DS₂ -VASc score of 2 or higher from clinics in Massachusetts and Georgia, USA between 2016 and 2018. A six-component geriatric assessment included validated measures of frailty, cognitive function, social support, depressive symptoms, vision, and hearing was performed at baseline. Study endpoints included all-cause mortality and clinically relevant bleeding.

Results

At 1 year, 1,097 (96.5%) individuals attended the follow up visit, 44 (3.9%) had died, and 56 (5.1%) had clinically relevant bleeding. After adjustment for demographic and clinical factors, social isolation (odds ratio [OR] 1.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–2.84), depression (OR 1.94, 95% CI: 1.28–2.95) and frailty (OR 2.55, 95% CI: 1.55–4.19) were significantly associated with the composite endpoint of death or clinically relevant bleeding. After multivariable adjustment, depression (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.09–2.93) and frailty (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.55–5.17) were significantly associated with clinically relevant bleeding.

Conclusions

 Social isolation, depression, and frailty were prognostic of dying or experiencing clinically relevant bleeding during the coming year in older men and women with AF. Assessing geriatric impairments merits consideration in the care of these patients.

Prevención del ictus en pacientes con fibrilación auricular. Mejorar la protección enla era de la COVID-19

La fibrilación auricular aumenta hasta en 5 veces el riesgo de ictus. Los ictus cardioembólicos habitualmente son más graves y tienen altas tasas de recurrencias y discapacidad permanente en comparación con los ictus de otras etiologías. En consecuencia, la reducción del riesgo de ictus mediante una adecuada anticoagulación es uno de los principales objetivos en el tratamiento de los pacientes con fibrilación auricular. Los antagonistas de la vitamina K han sido ampliamente superados por los anticoagulantes orales de acción directa, ya que tanto los resultados de los ensayos clínicos como los de los estudios de práctica clínica y, últimamente, estudios poblacionales han demostrado que los anticoagulantes orales de acción directa tienen mayores eficacia (menos ictus y muerte) y seguridad (menos hemorragias intracraneales) que los antagonistas de la vitamina K. Además, durante la pandemia de COVID-19, el empleo preferente de anticoagulantes orales de acción directa frente a los antagonistas de la vitamina K constituye una estrategia clave para garantizar una calidad óptima de la anticoagulación y una mejor protección del paciente contra el SARS-CoV-2, al no precisarse control de la razón internacional normalizada.

Neurologic complications of atrial fibrillation: Pharmacologic and interventional approaches to stroke prevention

Atrial fibrillation is a common cardiac arrhythmia that carries a risk of stroke. This is commonly stratified with the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score. Stroke risk can be reduced with anticoagulants or with interventions to close the left atrial appendage, the most common source of left atrial thrombi. While warfarin has been traditionally used as the only oral anticoagulant available, there are several direct oral anticoagulants that compare favorably with respect to both stroke and bleeding risk in randomized controlled trials. Multiple interventional options exist to close the left atrial appendage, but the Watchman device is the only one that compares favorably with warfarin in randomized controlled trials.

Frequency, Trends, and Outcomes of Cerebrovascular Events Associated With Atrial Fibrillation Hospitalizations

The main objective is to estimate the frequency, temporal trends, and outcomes of cerebrovascular events associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalization in the United States. The national inpatient sample data was utilized to identify hospitalizations with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF from January 1, 2005 through September 31, 2015 for the present analysis. Jonckheere-Terpstra Trend was utilized to analyze trends from 2005 to 2015. Global Wald score was used to assess relative contributions of various covariates towards stroke among AF hospitalizations. Between the years 2005 and 2015, there were 36,457,323 (95.2%) AF hospitalizations without cerebrovascular events and 1,824,608 (4.8%) with cerebrovascular events included in the final analysis. There was a statistically significant increase in the proportion of overall stroke, AIS, and AHS (p_trend value <0.001) per 1,000 AF hospitalizations. The frequency of stroke per 1,000 AF hospitalizations was highest among patients with CHA2DS2VASc score ≥3 and Charlson's comorbidity index ≥3. The trend of in-hospital mortality decreased during the study period, however, it remained higher in those with cerebrovascular events compared to those without. Lastly, hypertension, advancing age, and chronic lung disease were major stroke predicting factors among AF hospitalizations. These cerebrovascular events were associated with longer length of stay and higher costs. In conclusion, the incidence of cerebrovascular events associated with AF hospitalizations remained significantly high and the trend continues to ascend despite technological advancements. Strategies should improve to reduce the risk of AF-related stroke in the United States.

High Frequency of Anticoagulation Management Errors Preceding Ischemic Strokes in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Anticoagulants are recommended to prevent cardioembolic stroke in most patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Management errors with anticoagulation and use of aspirin instead of anticoagulants have been documented worldwide, especially with vitamin K antagonists. We assessed the rate of anticoagulant mismanagement errors in patients admitted with ischemic stroke, and the clinical correlates with stroke outcomes in the era of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients admitted with ischemic stroke and history of AF to a single-centre tertiary hospital stroke unit in Melbourne, Australia, between January 2016 and June 2019. We assessed management errors as defined using European Heart Rhythm Association criteria with anticoagulation in the two weeks prior to the index stroke.

RESULTS

A total of 306 patients with AF and ischemic stroke were included, of whom 196 (64%) had management errors. Patients with management errors were older (median age 84 versus 81 years [p=0.002]) and more often female (53% verse 38% [p=0.02]). Of those with management errors, 74 (37%) were not prescribed any anticoagulation despite increased stroke risk and absence of contraindications and 40 (20%) had anticoagulation inappropriately ceased. Mortality at 3-months was 32% in those with management errors, compared to 17% in the appropriately anticoagulated group (p=0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Inappropriate management of anticoagulants is present in the majority of acute ischemic stroke in the 2 weeks preceding the event and is linked to higher mortality. Improved anticoagulation practice has the potential to substantially reduce stroke rates in patients with AF. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Apixaban Compared with Warfarin

BACKGROUND

A previous FDA study reported a favorable benefit risk for apixaban compared with warfarin for stroke prevention in older non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients (≥ 65 years). However, it remains unclear whether this favorable benefit risk persists in other populations including younger users. We examined if a similar benefit risk was observed in the Sentinel System and if it varied by age group.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the risk of ischemic stroke, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in apixaban users compared with warfarin users in Sentinel Distributed Database (SDD).

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective new user cohort study was conducted among patients, 21 years and older initiating apixaban and warfarin for NVAF, between December 28, 2012, and June 30, 2018, in the SDD.

MAIN MEASURES

Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each outcome (ischemic stroke, GI bleeding, and ICH) in propensity score matched apixaban users compared with the warfarin users. Subgroup analyses by age (21-64, 65-74, and 75+ years) were conducted.

KEY RESULTS

After matching, 55.3% and 58.4% (n = 55,038) of the apixaban and warfarin users were included in the main analysis. GI bleeding was the most common outcome. The HR (95% CI) for GI bleeding, ICH, and ischemic stroke in apixaban users compared with warfarin users were 0.57 (0.50-0.66), 0.53 (0.40-0.70), and 0.56 (0.45-0.71) respectively. The reduced risk of these outcomes in apixaban compared with warfarin users persisted across age groups.

CONCLUSION

In NVAF patients of all ages initiating either apixaban or warfarin for stroke prevention in the Sentinel System, apixaban was associated with a decreased risk of GI bleeding, ICH, and ischemic stroke compared with warfarin. Among patients less than 65 years of age, apixaban use was associated with a decreased risk of GI bleeding and ischemic stroke.

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: safety issues in the elderly

INTRODUCTION

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are increasingly used for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Since NOACs are predominantly used in the elderly with AF at high risk for stroke and bleeding and with comorbidities requiring polypharmacy, it is important to assess their safety and efficacy in this population.

AREAS COVERED

We review changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics observed with senescence and the effect on NOACs and drug and food interactions. We also provide an update on challenges related to NOAC use in situations that increases the risk for bleeding or require temporary discontinuation and address practical issues in the elderly AF patients managed on NOACs. Clinical studies and trials with cardiovascular outcomes reported from January 1990 to August 2020 were identified through the Medline database using PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE database.

EXPERT OPINION

NOACs are highly effective in preventing stroke in AF patients with non-inferior or superior efficacy to warfarin, with reduced risk of major bleeding. However, in the older-elderly, evidence comes mainly from observational studies or extrapolation from studies in populations with minimal functional limitations or comorbidities. The high upfront cost and out-of-pocket expense for copayment or deductibles also limit the use of this effective therapy in a substantial number of patients. The cost reduction may further improve long-term use for NOACs in stroke prevention in elderly patients with AF.

The importance of adherence and persistence in the elderly atrial fibrillation patient

Older adults with atrial fibrillation are at the highest risk of ischaemic stroke yet are the least likely to be prescribed anticoagulant therapy, adhere to this therapy, and maintain long-term persistence with this therapy. The reasons for this under treatment are multifactorial and include patient-driven factors, physician-driven factors, medical system complexities, and current unknowns regarding the biology and natural history of AF. Understanding these challenges to stroke prevention and addressing identified barriers to medication adherence and persistence in this vulnerable age group will improve outcomes related to AF.

The 2020 Canadian Cardiovascular Society/Canadian Heart Rhythm Society Comprehensive Guidelines for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation

The Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines program was developed to aid clinicians in the management of these complex patients, as well as to provide direction to policy makers and health care systems regarding related issues. The most recent comprehensive CCS AF guidelines update was published in 2010. Since then, periodic updates were published dealing with rapidly changing areas. However, since 2010 a large number of developments had accumulated in a wide range of areas, motivating the committee to complete a thorough guideline review. The 2020 iteration of the CCS AF guidelines represents a comprehensive renewal that integrates, updates, and replaces the past decade of guidelines, recommendations, and practical tips. It is intended to be used by practicing clinicians across all disciplines who care for patients with AF. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) system was used to evaluate recommendation strength and the quality of evidence. Areas of focus include: AF classification and definitions, epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical evaluation, screening and opportunistic AF detection, detection and management of modifiable risk factors, integrated approach to AF management, stroke prevention, arrhythmia management, sex differences, and AF in special populations. Extensive use is made of tables and figures to synthesize important material and present key concepts. This document should be an important aid for knowledge translation and a tool to help improve clinical management of this important and challenging arrhythmia.

Prior Anticoagulation in Patients with Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to evaluate, in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute ischemic stroke, the association of prior anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) with stroke severity, utilization of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), safety of IVT, and 3-month outcomes.

METHODS

This was a cohort study of consecutive patients (2014-2019) on anticoagulation versus those without (controls) with regard to stroke severity, rates of IVT/mechanical thrombectomy, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), and favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) at 3 months.

RESULTS

Of 8,179 patients (mean [SD] age, 79.8 [9.6] years; 49% women), 1,486 (18%) were on VKA treatment, 1,634 (20%) on DOAC treatment at stroke onset, and 5,059 controls. Stroke severity was lower in patients on DOACs (median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 4, [interquartile range 2-11]) compared with VKA (6, [2-14]) and controls (7, [3-15], p < 0.001; quantile regression: β -2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2.6 to -1.7). The IVT rate in potentially eligible patients was significantly lower in patients on VKA (156 of 247 [63%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.67; 95% CI 0.50-0.90) and particularly in patients on DOACs (69 of 464 [15%]; aOR 0.06; 95% CI 0.05-0.08) compared with controls (1,544 of 2,504 [74%]). sICH after IVT occurred in 3.6% (2.6-4.7%) of controls, 9 of 195 (4.6%; 1.9-9.2%; aOR 0.93; 95% CI 0.46-1.90) patients on VKA and 2 of 65 (3.1%; 0.4-10.8%, aOR 0.56; 95% CI 0.28-1.12) of those on DOACs. After adjustments for prognostic confounders, DOAC pretreatment was associated with a favorable 3-month outcome (aOR 1.24; 1.01-1.51).

INTERPRETATION

Prior DOAC therapy in patients with AF was associated with decreased admission stroke severity at onset and a remarkably low rate of IVT. Overall, patients on DOAC might have better functional outcome at 3 months. Further research is needed to overcome potential restrictions for IVT in patients taking DOACs. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:42-53.

Advances in Therapeutic Approaches for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results in high rates of morbidity and mortality, with intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) being associated with even worse outcomes. Therapeutic interventions in acute ICH have continued to emerge with focus on arresting hemorrhage expansion, clot volume reduction of both intraventricular and parenchymal hematomas, and targeting perihematomal edema and inflammation. Large randomized controlled trials addressing the effectiveness of rapid blood pressure lowering, hemostatic therapy with platelet transfusion, and other clotting complexes and hematoma volume reduction using minimally invasive techniques have impacted clinical guidelines. We review the recent evolution in the management of acute spontaneous ICH, discussing which interventions have been shown to be safe and which may potentially improve outcomes.

Nine-year trend of oral anticoagulant use in patients with embolic stroke due to nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are increasingly used as an alternative to warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, whether there is sufficient prescription of oral anticoagulants (OACs) to decrease the incidence of embolic stroke remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. During the 8 years, the annual incidence ratio of embolic stroke to all ischemic strokes did not decrease over time (21-33%) except for that in 2018. The proportion of OAC users did not also change over time (from 23% to 45% [overall 31%], P = .78). Among the OAC users, 19% patients were warfarin users, and 12% patients were DOAC users. In 73% of warfarin users, prothrombin time was subtherapeutic, whereas in 60% of DOAC users, the dose was adequately prescribed. OACs were prescribed more often in patients with high CHADS2 score than in those with low score (P = .01). The number of patients who had no medical history of a doctor visit before admission increased significantly in the recent period of 2015-2018 (22% vs 8% in the previous period of 2010-2014) (P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of embolic stroke patients without OACs did not decrease over time, and OACs in patients with NVAF have not been sufficient, even in DOAC era. In recent years, the incidence of undiagnosed AF has increased. To prevent embolic stroke, a correct AF diagnosis beforehand is important.

Initial Stroke Severity in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation According to Antithrombotic Therapy Before Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose:

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the leading cause of ischemic stroke. Preventive antithrombotic use, especially for anticoagulation, reduces the incidence of ischemic stroke in patients with AF. Using data from the nationwide multicenter stroke registry, we investigated the trends of preceding antithrombotic medication use in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with AF and its association with initial stroke severity and in-hospital outcomes.

Methods:

This study included 6786 patients with AIS with known AF before stroke admission across 39 hospitals between June 2008 and December 2018. We collected the data on antithrombotic medication use (no antithrombotic/antiplatelet/anticoagulant) preceding AIS. Initial stroke severity was measured using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and in-hospital outcome was determined by modified Rankin Scale score at discharge.

Results:

During the study period, anticoagulant use continued to increase. However, nearly one-third of patients with AIS with known AF did not receive antithrombotics before stroke. Initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores varied according to preceding antithrombotic therapy ( P <0.001). It was higher in patients who did not receive antithrombotics than in those who received antiplatelets or anticoagulants (median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score: 8 versus 7 and 8 versus 6, respectively). Favorable outcome at discharge (modified Rankin Scale score, 0–2) was more prevalent in patients who received antiplatelets or anticoagulants ( P <0.001). Use of antiplatelets (odds ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.09–1.38]) and anticoagulants (odds ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.15–1.50]) was associated with a mild initial neurological deficit (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤5) in patients with AIS with AF.

Conclusions:

Throughout the study period, the proportion of patients taking anticoagulants increased among patients with AIS with known AF. However, a large portion of AF patients still did not receive antithrombotics before AIS. Furthermore, prehospitalization use of anticoagulants was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of a mild initial neurological deficit and favorable outcome at discharge.

T2238C atrial natriuretic peptide gene variant and cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation: A substudy from the ATHERO-AF cohort

BACKGROUND

The T2238C variant of the atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) gene has emerged as a novel risk factor for the incidence of cardiovascular events. However, the impact of this variant on cardiovascular outcome in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown.

METHODS

We included 557 anticoagulated patients with non-valvular AF randomly selected from the prospective ATHERO-AF cohort. Patients underwent genetic analysis for the T2238C/ANP variant and were grouped as wild type or heterozygous or homozygous for C2238 variant allele. Primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular events (CVEs) including cardiovascular death, fatal/non-fatal ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Overall, 429 patients carried the TT wild type genotype, 110 patients (19.7%) were heterozygous (T/C) and 18 patients (3.2%) were homozygous (CC).

RESULTS

Incidence of CVEs was higher in homozygous patients for C2238 allele at unadjusted analysis (log-rank test, p = 0.042 for additive model, p = 0.043 for recessive model). The multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis confirmed that C2238 ANP allele was associated with CVEs in the additive (p = 0.008) and recessive models (p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Carrier status for the C2238/ANP variant allele is associated with an increased risk of CVEs in anticoagulated AF patients.

Anti-thrombotic strategies in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing PCI

Triple anti-thrombotic therapy combining oral anticoagulation and dual anti-platelet therapy following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with atrial fibrillation was considered as standard and recommended by guidelines. While bleeding risk is considerable with that approach, data for efficacy are scare. Several trials assessed the possibility of reducing anti-thrombotic treatment by mainly shortening the exposure to acetylsalicylic acid. Dropping one of the anti-platelet components might increase the risk of stent thrombosis, myocardial infarction or stroke. Despite that fear, the recent trials' primary endpoint was major and/or clinically-relevant non-major bleeding. We review data on major bleedings, intracranial bleedings and major adverse cardiovascular events from the published reports. We demonstrate that Non-Vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC)-based strategies compared to VKA-based triple therapies significantly reduce the risk for TIMI-major bleedings by 39% and for intracranial bleedings by 66%, while they did not increase the risk for overall ischemic or embolic events. However, recent meta-analyses indicate an increased risk for stent thrombosis with less intense anti-thrombotic therapy. While the overall incidence rate for stent thrombosis is rather low, relative increases by about 30-60% are reported, but they did not translate into adverse clinical net-benefit ratios. This review highlights that using certain NOAC regimens proven effective for stroke prevention in AF can reduce the rate of bleeding without increasing ischemic or embolic events. Furthermore, additive ASA in triple anti-thrombotic regimens should be limited to 1 month and individual weighing of ischemic versus bleeding risk during the first 30 days seems to be reasonable.

Perioperative outcomes of interrupted anticoagulation in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation undergoing non-cardiac surgery

Background

This study aimed to investigate the incidences of and risk factors for perioperative events following anticoagulant discontinuation in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

Methods

A total of 216 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac consultation for suspending perioperative anticoagulants were enrolled. A perioperative event was defined as a composite of thromboembolism and major bleeding.

Results

The mean anticoagulant discontinuation duration was 5.7 (±4.2) days and was significantly longer in the warfarin group (p<0.001). Four perioperative thromboembolic (1.9%; three strokes and one systemic embolization) and three major bleeding events (1.4%) were observed. The high CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and a prolonged preoperative anticoagulant discontinuation duration (4.4±2.1 vs. 2.9±1.8 days; p=0.028) were associated with perioperative events, whereas the anticoagulant type (non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants or warfarin) was not. The best cut-off levels of the HAS-BLED and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were 3.5 and 2.5, respectively, and the preoperative anticoagulant discontinuation duration for predicting perioperative events was 2.5 days. Significant differences in the perioperative event rates were observed among the four risk groups categorized according to the sum of these values: risk 0, 0%; risk 1, 0%; risk 2, 5.9%; and risk 3, 50.0% (p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the HAS-BLED score was an independent predictor for perioperative events.

Conclusion

Thromboembolic events and major bleeding are not uncommon during perioperative anticoagulant discontinuation in patients with NVAF, and interrupted anticoagulation strategies are needed to minimize these.

Real-world cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban and apixaban vs VKA in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the UK

BACKGROUND

Morbidity and mortality associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) imposes a substantial economic burden on the UK healthcare system.

OBJECTIVES

An existing Markov model was adapted to assess the real-world cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban and apixaban, each compared with a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), for stroke prevention in patients with NVAF from the National Health Service (NHS) and personal and social services (PSS) perspective.

METHODS

The model considered a cycle length of 3 months over a lifetime horizon. All inputs were drawn from real-world evidence (RWE): baseline patient characteristics, clinical event and persistence rates, treatment effect (meta-analysis of RWE studies), utility values and resource use. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was £14,437 for rivaroxaban, and £20,101 for apixaban, compared with VKA. The probabilities to be cost-effective compared with VKA were 90% and 81%, respectively for rivaroxaban and apixaban, considering a £20,000 threshold. In both comparisons, the results were most sensitive to clinical event rates.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that rivaroxaban and apixaban are cost-effective vs VKA, based on RWE, considering a £20,000 threshold, from the NHS and PSS perspective in the UK for stroke prevention in patients with NVAF. This economic evaluation may provide valuable information for decision-makers, in a context where RWE is more accessible and its value more acknowledged.

Predictors of clinical outcome among Thai patients with atrial fibrillation-associated acute ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictors of 3-month death among an atrial fibrillation-associated acute ischemic stroke (AF-stroke).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted at a university hospital in Thailand. Patients with AF-stroke admitted between 2012 and 2017 were enrolled into the study. Baseline characteristics, clinical presentations, complications, and outcomes measured by the modified Rankin scale were collected from electronic medical records. Predictors of death outcomes were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The mortality rate among 119 AF-stroke patients was 26.89%. The independent predictors of 3-month death were developing AKI during hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6.38, 95% CI = 1.96-20.76, p = 0.001) and age above 75 years old (aOR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.17-8.13, p = 0.019). In contrast, receiving treatment with an oral anticoagulant prior to the stroke episode was a protective factor (aOR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.03-0.64, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Developing AKI and older age were the independent predictor of 3- month death among AF-stroke patients.

Clinical Outcomes of Telephone Service for Patients on Warfarin: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective: To evaluate clinical outcomes of telephone-based service for patients on warfarin. Methods: Five bibliographic databases and gray literature were searched for articles that reported the effects of telephone interventions provided to patients using warfarin compared with those receiving usual clinic-based care. Mean difference (MD) and relative risk (RR) were used to calculate the effects of telephone intervention on time in therapeutic range (TTR) and visit in range (VIR), respectively. Adverse events (AEs) were pooled and reported as incidence rate ratios. Results: A total of 1,840 articles were examined. Eight articles involving 8,087 subjects were included in the quantitative synthesis. The pooled estimates from seven studies showed no difference on TTR between the telephone service group and the usual care group (MD 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] -3.56 to 8.16). In addition, VIR in the telephone service group was not different from the usual care group (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.87-1.71). Moreover, patients in telephone service groups appeared to have a lower incidence of AEs compared with usual care groups. Discussion: Telephone-based service could be considered as an alternative anticoagulant management. However, owing to a lack of evidence from well-designed studies, further high-quality randomized control trials are warranted.

The Magnitude of the Warfarin-Amiodarone Drug-Drug Interaction Varies With Renal Function: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study

Amiodarone inhibits warfarin metabolism and is associated with major bleeding during warfarin therapy. Managing this drug-drug interaction (DDI) is challenging because of substantial interpatient variability in DDI magnitude. Because renal dysfunction induces changes in drug metabolism and protein binding that could alter cytochrome P450 inhibition mechanisms, we hypothesized that renal dysfunction alters the impact of the warfarin-amiodarone DDI. We tested this question in a propensity-matched cohort study of hospitalized patients with atrial fibrillation. Patients were queried from an electronic health record database. Renal function was estimated with creatinine clearance (CrCl). Warfarin response was measured with the warfarin sensitivity index (WSI), a dose-normalized international normalized ratio (INR) measure, and was modeled with multilevel mixed-effects linear regression. Time to supratherapeutic INR (> 4) was modeled using Cox regression. Propensity score matching resulted in 4,518 patients administered amiodarone and 4,518 controls. Amiodarone's effect on warfarin response varied threefold across the renal function range, increasing WSI by 36% in patients with normal renal function (CrCl 115 mL/minute), but by only 11.8% in patients with severe renal dysfunction (CrCl 15 mL/minute). Similarly, amiodarone had a strong effect in patients with normal renal function (hazard ratio (HR) 1.80; 1.23, 2.64), but a negligible effect on supratherapeutic INR hazard in patients with severe renal dysfunction (HR 1.01; 0.75, 1.37). These results suggest that renal function is a novel factor that explains substantial variability in the warfarin-amiodarone DDI. This information could inform warfarin dosage adjustment and monitoring and may have implications for the selection of oral anticoagulation agents in patients treated with amiodarone.

MRI characteristics in acute ischemic stroke patients with preceding direct oral anticoagulant therapy as compared to vitamin K antagonists

Background

Despite the utility of neuroimaging in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), imaging characteristics in patients with preceding direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKA) have hardly been described. We aimed to determine presence of large vessel occlusion (LVO), thrombus length, infarction diameter, and occurrence of hemorrhagic transformation in AIS patients with preceding DOAC as compared to VKA therapy.

Methods

Using a prospectively collected cohort of AIS patients, we performed univariate and multivariable regression analyses regarding imaging outcomes. Additionally, we provide a sensitivity analysis for the subgroup of patients with confirmed therapeutic anticoagulation.

Results

We included AIS in patients with preceding DOAC (N = 75) and VKA (N = 61) therapy, median age 79 (IQR 70–83), 39% female. Presence of any LVO between DOAC and VKA patients (29.3% versus 37.7%, P = 0.361), and target LVO for endovascular therapy (26.7% versus 27.9%, P = 1.0) was equal with a similar occlusion pattern. DOAC as compared to VKA were associated with a similar rate of target LVO for EVT (aOR 0.835, 95% CI 0.368–1.898). The presence of multiple lesions and characteristics of the thrombus were similar in DOAC and VKA patients. Acute ischemic lesion diameter in real world patients was equal in patients taking DOAC as compared to VKA. Lesion diameter in VKA patients (median 13 mm, IQR 6–26 versus median 20 mm, IQR 7–36, P = 0.001), but not DOAC patients was smaller in the setting of confirmed therapeutic VKA. The frequency of radiological hemorrhagic transformation and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage in OAC patients was low. Sensitivity analysis considering only patients with confirmed therapeutic anticoagulation did not change any of the results.

Conclusion

Preceding DOAC treatment showed equal rates of LVO and infarct size as compared to VKA in AIS patients. This study adds to the knowledge of imaging findings in AIS patients with preceding anticoagulation.

The prognostic effect of left ventricular thrombus formation after acute myocardial infarction in the contemporary era of primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUNDS

The prognosis and management of left ventricular thrombus (LVT) following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have not been well evaluated since the advent of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to assess the prognostic effect of LVT after AMI in primary PCI era and investigate the impact of triple therapy on outcomes.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library for studies conducted in primary PCI era up to 29 March 2019, compering the incidence of embolic events and mortality after AMI between LVT patients and Non-LVT patients. Random-effect models were used. Subgroup analysis was done by comparing triple therapy treated LVT group with Non-LVT group.

RESULT

A total of 12 studies were included. LVT was associated with increased risk of embolic events and long-term mortality (RR 3.97, 95%CI 2.68-5.89, P < 0.0001; RR 2.34, 95%CI 1.38-3.96, P = 0.002). Subgroup analysis was also done by comparing triple therapy treated LVT group with Non-LVT group. Despite a downward tendency was observed, the embolic risk of triple therapy subgroup was higher than non-LVT group (RR 2.79, 95%CI 1.32-5.91, P = 0.007). Triple therapy subgroup had a similar mortality rate compared with non-LVT group (RR 0.93, 95%CI 0.34-2.52, P = 0.88).

CONCLUSION

In primary PCI era, LVT formation after AMI indicated a fourfold increased embolic risk and twofold long-term mortality rate. Triple therapy may be a safe way to improve the outcomes, but still need to be confirmed by future trials.

Prior Anticoagulation and Short- or Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Background

We aimed to clarify associations between prior anticoagulation and short‐ or long‐term clinical outcomes in ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

Methods and Results

A total of 1189 ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized within 7 days after onset were analyzed. Of these, 813 patients (68.4%) received no prior anticoagulation, 310 (26.1%) received prior warfarin treatment with an international normalized ratio (INR) <2 on admission, 28 (2.4%) received prior warfarin treatment with an INR ≥2 on admission, and the remaining 38 (3.2%) received prior direct oral anticoagulant treatment. Prior warfarin treatment was associated with a lower risk of death or disability at 3 months compared with no prior anticoagulation (INR <2: adjusted odds ratio: 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42–0.81; P=0.001; INR ≥2: adjusted odds ratio: 0.40; 95% CI, 0.16–0.97; P=0.043) but was not associated with a lower risk of death or disability at 2 years. Prior warfarin treatment with an INR ≥2 on admission was associated with a higher risk of ischemic events within 2 years compared with no prior anticoagulation (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.94; 95% CI, 1.20–6.15; P=0.021).

Conclusions

Prior warfarin treatment was associated with a lower risk of death or disability at 3 months but was not associated with a lower risk of death or disability at 2 years in ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Prior warfarin treatment with an INR ≥2 on admission was associated with a higher risk of ischemic events within 2 years.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01581502.